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  #1  
Old 02-13-2018, 10:53 PM
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Cool A10 possibly a one bid league?

Looking at the RPI's and other stats, if Rhody wins the A10 Championship, it's quite possible we are a one bid league. We are 10th in RPI as a league. The A10 has scheduled 26 teams in the top 25 ratings, and has zero scalps to show for it. Does not have a good feel to it.
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Old 02-13-2018, 11:13 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
Looking at the RPI's and other stats, if Rhody wins the A10 Championship, it's quite possible we are a one bid league. We are 10th in RPI as a league. The A10 has scheduled 26 teams in the top 25 ratings, and has zero scalps to show for it. Does not have a good feel to it.
Saint Bonaventure is on the wrong side of the bubble right now but there’s time. They get Rhode Island at home Friday. A win for the Bonnies against the rams would be huge.
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Old 02-14-2018, 08:39 AM
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There is always a chance that the Rams could have an off day in the tournament and get beat by a hot-shooting team. Then the A-10 will have two teams at the dance.
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Old 02-14-2018, 09:39 AM
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Most unfortunately EC Matthews was injured last night. Will find out more about his prognosis today.
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  #5  
Old 02-14-2018, 10:02 AM
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I think the Bonnies will pull out an at large. I think the A10 could still get 3 teams in, URI, SBU, and a dark horse. If Dance Card only has SBU 1 spot out, then they can get it done.
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Old 02-14-2018, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I think the Bonnies will pull out an at large. I think the A10 could still get 3 teams in, URI, SBU, and a dark horse. If Dance Card only has SBU 1 spot out, then they can get it done.
The road win last night was quite helpful. Their RPI was not really moving during that winning stretch, just hovering at 50. After last night they are now 42. With 3 top-50 wins, Friday night can't really hurt them, but it sure as hell could help them. Even with a loss their RPI will probably improve and SOS will get a nice bump. Avoid bad losses from here on out and they are probably in. Throw in a non-URI/SBU tournament winner and you've got 3 bids.

To me, one seems about as unlikely as three. Odds are we'll get two.
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Old 02-14-2018, 11:01 AM
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URI is close to a lock, if not already there.
SBU is the only team with the potential to play themselves into an at large.

I think there's a scenario where A10 gets 3, albeit highly unlikely. It would mean...
1) URI continuing to play well, but not win the A10 tournament. RPI forecast shows even if they lose out, their RPI will be in the 20s -- so a virtual lock at this point.
2) It would also mean SBU finishes with only 1 (maybe 2) more losses in regular season, coupled with a win this Friday against URI. Then they need 2 wins in tournament. That would put their RPI around 30 with respectable numbers (forecasting) of 2-2 vs top 25, 5-3 vs top 50 and 9-4 vs top 100 with no losses over 185.
3) If a team gets hot in A10 tourney and wins it, coupled with URI and SBU finishing strong...3 will get in. But reality is URI hasn't lost since 12/6 and SBU has won 7 straight...so who would beat them?

EDIT: I also think SBU has the Cinderella factor going for them with an at large. Jay Adams has a little Steph Curry in him, and for all those too naive to think CBS and the NCAA wouldn't want them in are wrong. Big ratings = big money. I can already see it "#11SBU - the third smallest school in all of Div 1 lead by Jay Adams, scoring 34 knocking off #6 West Virginia"

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Old 02-14-2018, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by 224 View Post
URI is close to a lock, if not already there.
SBU is the only team with the potential to play themselves into an at large.

I think there's a scenario where A10 gets 3, albeit highly unlikely. It would mean...
1) URI continuing to play well, but not win the A10 tournament. RPI forecast shows even if they lose out, their RPI will be in the 20s -- so a virtual lock at this point.
2) It would also mean SBU finishes with only 1 (maybe 2) more losses in regular season, coupled with a win this Friday against URI. Then they need 2 wins in tournament. That would put their RPI around 30 with respectable numbers (forecasting) of 2-2 vs top 25, 5-3 vs top 50 and 9-4 vs top 100 with no losses over 185.
3) If a team gets hot in A10 tourney and wins it, coupled with URI and SBU finishing strong...3 will get in. But reality is URI hasn't lost since 12/6 and SBU has won 7 straight...so who would beat them?

EDIT: I also think SBU has the Cinderella factor going for them with an at large. Jay Adams has a little Steph Curry in him, and for all those too naive to think CBS and the NCAA wouldn't want them in are wrong. Big ratings = big money. I can already see it "#11SBU - the third smallest school in all of Div 1 lead by Jay Adams, scoring 34 knocking off #6 West Virginia"
Also, as much as everyone will say it isn't the case, I have to believe SBU gets the benefit of the doubt after being wrong a couple of years ago.
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Old 02-14-2018, 11:55 AM
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I can see if St. Bonnie's finishes strong losing only 1 more reg season game & makes the A10 tourney final but losing to a Davidson or even UD-type (in my dreams), they could make the NCAA. That could provide 3 A10 teams in the dance.

I agree with the above about the potential "wow" factor St. Bonnie's brings to the NCAA tourney this year, along with added benefit-of-the-doubt for past wrongs, plus the win over Syracuse will go a long way for them... but they aren't there yet.
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Old 02-14-2018, 11:57 AM
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Regardless of what happens, that potential third team plays in Dayton. If somehow, that team is miraculously us, I wonder what the selection committee would do?
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
Regardless of what happens, that potential third team plays in Dayton. If somehow, that team is miraculously us, I wonder what the selection committee would do?
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The potential 3rd team could only come from winning the A10 tourney. No way they would be put in Dayton. Those will all be At Large 11 or 12 seeds just like every year.
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:31 PM
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In my view,if a dark horse wins the A-10 (not URI or SBU) then SBU is NIT bound. Hard to see three from a weak A-10. But time will tell. Agree that an SBU win Friday strengthens their case.
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  #13  
Old 02-14-2018, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09 View Post
The potential 3rd team could only come from winning the A10 tourney. No way they would be put in Dayton. Those will all be At Large 11 or 12 seeds just like every year.
They also put four of the lowest ranked conference winners there too, in addition to the four 11 and 12 seeds.
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by 224 View Post
EDIT: I also think SBU has the Cinderella factor going for them with an at large. Jay Adams has a little Steph Curry in him, and for all those too naive to think CBS and the NCAA wouldn't want them in are wrong. Big ratings = big money. I can already see it "#11SBU - the third smallest school in all of Div 1 lead by Jay Adams, scoring 34 knocking off #6 West Virginia"
I don't believe that the committee is ever motivated by ratings to get teams in the tournament. They are certainly biased AGAINST non-Power 5 if anything.

But even if they were, I find it hard to buy any argument that says that St. Bonaventure would have a ratings argument in their favor.
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
They also put four of the lowest ranked conference winners there too, in addition to the four 11 and 12 seeds.
Sure, in theory Fordham could win the A10 tournament and thus be in line for a 16 seed. However a 3rd team from the A10 isn't going to be a 16 seed and get shipped off to Dayton. If UD/VCU/Davidson/Richmond pulls the shocker they will end up on the 13/14 line. Nobody is getting sent to Dayton unless SBU ends up as one of the last At Large's in.
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09 View Post
Sure, in theory Fordham could win the A10 tournament and thus be in line for a 16 seed. However a 3rd team from the A10 isn't going to be a 16 seed and get shipped off to Dayton. If UD/VCU/Davidson/Richmond pulls the shocker they will end up on the 13/14 line. Nobody is getting sent to Dayton unless SBU ends up as one of the last At Large's in.
I agree, outside of Fordham I doubt an A10 team would end up there, I was just pointing out that its not just 11 and 12 seeds that go to Dayton.
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
In my view,if a dark horse wins the A-10 (not URI or SBU) then SBU is NIT bound. Hard to see three from a weak A-10. But time will tell. Agree that an SBU win Friday strengthens their case.
While I share your skepticism given the committee's recent history with the Bonnies, SBU controls their destiny and can make a "snub" impossible. For example a sub-30 is a virtual guaranteed bid, a sub-20 RPI is an actual guarantee.
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Old 02-14-2018, 01:01 PM
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In the end, 1 or 3 have close to the same probability, it's that close. The Selection Committee is not into pity parties for mid-majors.
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Old 02-14-2018, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
While I share your skepticism given the committee's recent history with the Bonnies, SBU controls their destiny and can make a "snub" impossible. For example a sub-30 is a virtual guaranteed bid, a sub-20 RPI is an actual guarantee.
I wanted to expound on this a bit more. I believe (could be wrong), that there have only been two teams left out of the modern version of the tournament with an RPI below 30. That would be the Bonnies in 2016 and Missouri State in 2006. The Missouri State one is quite the anomaly, as there have been a handful of teams with an RPI of around 30 to be left out, but nothing quite so drastic as 21.
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Old 02-14-2018, 01:35 PM
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Injury accommodation?

It will be interesting to see if St. Bona gets a pass for their home opening loss to Niagra. Adams was hurt and, I think, one other started didn't play that game as well.
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Old 02-14-2018, 03:16 PM
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Fragile

Originally Posted by Lifelong Flyer Fan View Post
Most unfortunately EC Matthews was injured last night. Will find out more about his prognosis today.
http://www.providencejournal.com/spo...hammer-spiders
For all his talent, that kid is fragile.
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Old 02-14-2018, 03:21 PM
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Old 02-14-2018, 04:49 PM
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I agree with the posts about the committee giving SBU preferential treatment this year due to the snub a few years ago.

What was the reason given that year? Bad top 50 record?
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Old 02-14-2018, 05:09 PM
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It was 2 years ago, the 2015-2016 season. The rpi numbers vary by site.

Realtimerpi and collegerpi.com had them at #30 after the regular season, with a sos of 81.

Warren Nolan had them at #46 overall? with a sos of 83.

http://realtimerpi.com/2015-2016/rpi_Men.html


http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...nt-Bonaventure


They appear to have had too many 100+, 3, and 200+, 1, losses. That is the only significant blemish that I see. The top 50 and top 100 and road records looked acceptable.

That WN site is nice, it has all the archived Nitty Gritty reports.

Last edited by ud2; 02-14-2018 at 05:12 PM..
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Old 02-14-2018, 11:11 PM
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SBU's sos was a little weak at 81 or 83 also.

They were probably 1 win away. If they did not have that 1 200+ loss, then I bet they would have made it in.
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Old 02-15-2018, 09:52 AM
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One bid, no mas.
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Old 02-16-2018, 04:41 PM
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Rhode Island a 1 point favorite tonight at St. Bonaventure. Game SBU has to win - unless it plans on winning the A10 tournament.
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Old 02-16-2018, 05:18 PM
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The latest Dance Card came out yesterday. SBU is 1 spot, #46, above the last team in, #47.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 02-16-2018, 06:37 PM
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Lunardi has the Bonnies as the last team as of today
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Old 02-16-2018, 08:34 PM
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Top two teams in the league tied at 20 at the under eight in the first half.
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Old 02-16-2018, 10:53 PM
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Great game between RI and SBU. Bonnies win. SBU certainly looks like an NCAA tournament team to me. Hard to stomach having ESPN list Dayton as a bad loss on St. Bonaventure's resume though. Ouch!
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Old 02-17-2018, 09:18 AM
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Definitely great game. Maybe it needs a good showing in the A10 tournament, but think SBU deserves a bid on current record if no stumbles rest of way. Third straight 20 win season. "Bad loss" hurts deeply. Although there is a good feeling when knocking off a top team (Syracuse etc.) hopefully we are not on our way to joining the "bad loss list" on a recurring basis.

As much as I can't stand Hurley and his whining, for the league's sake I hope Rhode Island and SBU do well and cause some trouble.
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Old 02-18-2018, 03:35 PM
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ESPN was reaching when listing UD as a "bad loss". If at Dayton is your bad loss, the your profile is looking pretty spiffy. If Bonnies finish season well, they are in.

A10 gets three in if both Rhody and Bonnaventure finish strong; as I predict they both go down in A10 tournament.

If the conference gets three bids, in what is obviously the worst year in conference history, that will be so sweet, and conference reputation saving moment.
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Old 02-18-2018, 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
"Bad loss" hurts deeply. Although there is a good feeling when knocking off a top team (Syracuse etc.) hopefully we are not on our way to joining the "bad loss list" on a recurring basis.
ESPN was reaching when listing Dayton as a “bad loss”.
They listed Davidson as a bad loss, too, which is more absurd.
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Old 02-18-2018, 07:57 PM
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www.bracketmatrix.com moves SBU up to an 11 seed.
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Old 02-18-2018, 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
They listed Davidson as a bad loss, too, which is more absurd.
A10 getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment
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Old 02-19-2018, 12:25 PM
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Bona in the play in game against Baylor per Joey Brackets.
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Old 02-20-2018, 07:34 PM
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OMG, SBU moves up 13 spots, from #46 to #33, on the dance card, from last Thursday to Monday.

They seem to be in control of their own destiny at this point. They are now nowhere near the cut line.

The A10 is definitely getting at least 2 teams in the NCAAT, as long as SBU does not implode.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 02-21-2018, 02:38 PM
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I am sticking with my prediction of A10 getting 3 NCAA bids, per the upsets of both Rhody and bonnies in A10 tournament. However the UD win over SLU all but made sure that Rhody and SBU will be on opposite sides of bracket; that does lessen the likelihood that neither wins the A10 tourney, but I still see the field as wild and crazy...get ready for serious March Madness in DC...A10 style.
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Old 02-23-2018, 01:32 PM
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SBU gets downgraded 6 spots on the dance card to #39, despite defeating Duquesne.

The dc is cruel, she giveth, and she taketh away.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
SBU gets downgraded 6 spots on the dance card to #39, despite defeating Duquesne.

The dc is cruel, she giveth, and she taketh away.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
If they do indeed get into the Big Dance, do not overlook them as a spoiler. If Jalen Adams and Matt Mobley are on their game, they could find their way deep into the tournament. That is one of the best guard tandems in basketball.
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