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  #1  
Old 01-19-2015, 01:55 PM
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Bracketology Thread

Brackets out today.

Dance Card -- 108/110 at-large last 3 years. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm



http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...ar-top-of-a-10

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

http://bracketmatrix.com
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Old 01-19-2015, 01:59 PM
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Glad dance card is out now. Other than UDPride RPI it is all I'll use.
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Old 01-19-2015, 02:11 PM
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before someone asks, the difference in rpi from dancecard to the one you see on UDPride is that Dancecard uses the old rpi formula, acknowledging that is what the system was originally based upon and to date they haven't seen a difference in their analysis b/w using the old formula and the new one.
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Old 01-19-2015, 02:27 PM
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Not that it matters at this point, but CBS Sports has Dayton v. Xavier in a play-in game.

Uh, no.
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Old 01-19-2015, 02:27 PM
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Agreed that Dance Card is the best out there. These guys have done a great job using only criteria that the past committees have used and weighted those criteria accordingly. They have the Flyers on the 7 seed line which is about right.
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  #6  
Old 01-19-2015, 02:33 PM
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In Dance Card and Patrick Stevens I trust.

Some information on Patrick Stevens who picked all the teams right for 2 years running now including NC State last year. He had Dayton comfortably in last year when a bunch of pundits were talking about omitting us.

http://dcist.com/2014/03/interview_p..._d1scourse.php
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Old 01-19-2015, 02:34 PM
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S-Curve by ESPN.

Bubble (32 teams for 15 spots)
• IN (15, in S-Curve order): 30. Indiana, 31. Cincinnati, 32. Stanford, 33. Dayton, 34. Iowa, 35. Ohio State, 36. Old Dominion, 37. Oklahoma State, 38. NC State, 39. Georgia, 40. Xavier

Last four in: 41. Syracuse, 42. Miami (Fla.), 43. Louisiana State, 44. George Washington
First four out: 69. Colorado State, 70. St. John's, 71. BYU, 72. Connecticut
Next four out: 73. Florida, 74. Ole Miss, 75. Tennessee, 76. Temple
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Old 01-19-2015, 02:34 PM
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Dance Card with only VCU and Flyers from A10.
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Old 01-19-2015, 03:14 PM
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Dance Card has 7/10 Big East teams in, pretty impressive.

2/14 in for the A-10. GW, Umass, and Davidson all in the mix for the A-10 as out for now, but could go on streaks.
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Old 01-19-2015, 03:21 PM
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I think this year the A10 Tournament is ripe for upsets. When the teams get to reboot they could add to some team's stress. Could end up being VCU, Dayton, and the winner of the Tournament.
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Old 01-19-2015, 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Not that it matters at this point, but CBS Sports has Dayton v. Xavier in a play-in game.

Uh, no.
I'm looking forward to it as long as the game is not at that pigeon roost they call Cintas.
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Old 01-19-2015, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
before someone asks, the difference in rpi from dancecard to the one you see on UDPride is that Dancecard uses the old rpi formula, acknowledging that is what the system was originally based upon and to date they haven't seen a difference in their analysis b/w using the old formula and the new one.
I wondered about that RPI number of theirs. UDPride RPI has both on it - and the variance between both is shown.
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Old 01-22-2015, 01:06 PM
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Still comfortably in. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

"Bubble" (26 teams for 13 spots)
• IN (13, in S-Curve order): 33. Oklahoma St, 34. Dayton, 35. Cincinnati, 36. Ohio State, 37. Old Dominion, 38. Louisiana St, 39. Georgia, 40. NC State, 41. Xavier,

Last four in: 42. Miami (Fla.), 44. Syracuse, 45. Colorado St, 46. St. John's
First four out: 69. Tennessee, 70. George Washington, 71. Davidson, 72. Brigham Young
Next four out: 73. Connecticut, 74. Washington, 75. Temple, 76. Illinois
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Old 01-22-2015, 01:31 PM
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We just need to hold serve at home, and win road games against bad teams. We may need to steal a tough one on the road and I think the best chance of that is @UMass.
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Old 01-22-2015, 03:05 PM
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I think we can afford to lose one we're supposed to win as long as we win one we're supposed to lose. In fact, I think we'd be better off that way than if we just win what we're supposed and lose what we're supposed to. Otherwise, we're going to be dinged because we didn't beat anybody.
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Old 01-22-2015, 03:16 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
I think we can afford to lose one we're supposed to win as long as we win one we're supposed to lose. In fact, I think we'd be better off that way than if we just win what we're supposed and lose what we're supposed to. Otherwise, we're going to be dinged because we didn't beat anybody.
I would agree with the exception that we can't lose to anyone really bad - at this point that would include Duq, SLU and FOR for sure. Maybe GM too.
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Old 01-22-2015, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I would agree with the exception that we can't lose to anyone really bad - at this point that would include Duq, SLU and FOR for sure. Maybe GM too.
Those are the ONLY trade-offs Flying Arrow is speaking of. There are no others really.
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Old 01-22-2015, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
Those are the ONLY trade-offs Flying Arrow is speaking of. There are no others really.
What the heck are you talking about?

Right now the only games we are projected to lose according to RPI Forecast are at GW and at VCU. What I took Flying Arrow to say that we could lose to anyone as long as we beat either GW or VCU. I am saying I am not sure that we could lose to Fordham and beat GW and call it even.

Upon further review, I think even if we lose to GW and VCU we can lose to someone else and still be okay as long as that other team is on the road and it is not Duq or SLU. At this point it that would mean losing to UMASS or LAS.
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Old 01-22-2015, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
I think this year the A10 Tournament is ripe for upsets. When the teams get to reboot they could add to some team's stress. Could end up being VCU, Dayton, and the winner of the Tournament.
No offense SD but right now it's VCU, Davidson and the winner of the Tournament. Hasn't Brian Roberts senior year taught you anything about how the wheels can fall off? I think AM is a much, much better coach than BG was but he's also dealing with a 7 man rotation and we're not even into February yet. I like our chances but unless we somehow smoke Davidson later...they're ahead of us now.
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Old 01-22-2015, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan67 View Post
No offense SD but right now it's VCU, Davidson and the winner of the Tournament. Hasn't Brian Roberts senior year taught you anything about how the wheels can fall off? I think AM is a much, much better coach than BG was but he's also dealing with a 7 man rotation and we're not even into February yet. I like our chances but unless we somehow smoke Davidson later...they're ahead of us now.
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If this is based on speculation that we are behind them because of what may happen in the future games I agree with you. Otherwise I don't. We both have zero top 25 wins. We both have 1 top 50 win (Their win is us at their place). We are 4-3 against the top 100. They are 3-4 against the top 100. Both extremely bubblicious at this stage. RPI 28 vs rpi 38.

One game does not a season make. Two games are critical at this stage - @GW and @VCU. Need at least one of those. Two would ice it. I thought we might take Davidson. They shot lights out. We didn't defend. Nothing's changed. Still a short bench. Still need to play at a high level.

Tuesday reminded me of the beat down at SJU last year. Long season. Davidson plays there this week. That will be fun to watch. Martelli and the Hawks are never dead at home.
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Old 01-23-2015, 04:53 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
What the heck are you talking about?
I am not sure that we could lose to Fordham and beat GW and call it even.
Wow, I was careless not to stipulate away games. I am sooo locked into having to win home games. THAT is a must. Sorry.

We cannot beat VCU of course, that is next to impossible. They intend to run us into the fu**ing ground and will.

So, I meant we could lose to St. Louis or Duquesne for a GW win and be okay.
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Old 01-23-2015, 05:22 AM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
We cannot beat VCU of course, that is next to impossible.
Isn't that what was said about St Louis last year?
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Old 01-23-2015, 10:06 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
What the heck are you talking about?

Right now the only games we are projected to lose according to RPI Forecast are at GW and at VCU. What I took Flying Arrow to say that we could lose to anyone as long as we beat either GW or VCU. I am saying I am not sure that we could lose to Fordham and beat GW and call it even.

Upon further review, I think even if we lose to GW and VCU we can lose to someone else and still be okay as long as that other team is on the road and it is not Duq or SLU. At this point it that would mean losing to UMASS or LAS.
Run the rpi wizard, that will give you all the scenarios...I bet the Flyers can lose any 3 games and get in, no more than 3 losses though...but, I could be wrong about the impact of a Fordham or Duquesne type loss.


http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Dayton.html

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Old 01-23-2015, 11:00 AM
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I ran the wizard...losses to VCU and GW on the road plus a home loss to Fordham, who has the worst rpi of the remaining opponents, results in a rpi of 37 and a SOS of 119...that might not be good enough, I'm not sure...the weak SOS really complicates things a lot.
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Old 01-23-2015, 11:02 AM
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Keep in mind raw rpi is secondary.

RPI 55 with 3 Top 25 rpi wins looks better than rpi 30 with no top 25 rpi wins.

It's who and where we win. Our best win is TAMU right now.
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Old 01-23-2015, 11:25 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan67 View Post
No offense SD but right now it's VCU, Davidson and the winner of the Tournament. Hasn't Brian Roberts senior year taught you anything about how the wheels can fall off? I think AM is a much, much better coach than BG was but he's also dealing with a 7 man rotation and we're not even into February yet. I like our chances but unless we somehow smoke Davidson later...they're ahead of us now.
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Yep..Unless we get another walk-on to step up and/or Detwon gets the go ahead, playing a minimum of 3 games in 3 days is going to be incredibly tough for UD and especially after playing 30 plus games already..
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Old 01-23-2015, 12:33 PM
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Patrick Stevens who got all the teams right in 2014 as well being very accurate in seeding has UD in as a #8.

http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev...l#incart_river
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Old 01-23-2015, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Still comfortably in. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

"Bubble" (26 teams for 13 spots)
• IN (13, in S-Curve order): 33. Oklahoma St, 34. Dayton, 35. Cincinnati, 36. Ohio State, 37. Old Dominion, 38. Louisiana St, 39. Georgia, 40. NC State, 41. Xavier,

Last four in: 42. Miami (Fla.), 44. Syracuse, 45. Colorado St, 46. St. John's
First four out: 69. Tennessee, 70. George Washington, 71. Davidson, 72. Brigham Young
Next four out: 73. Connecticut, 74. Washington, 75. Temple, 76. Illinois
Jan 19 bracketology Lunardi has Iowa a #9 seed, they lost by 32 @ Wisconsin Jan 20th.
Jan 22 bracketology Lunardi has Iowa a #8 seed.

Nuff said...
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Old 01-23-2015, 12:45 PM
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But they looked GREAT in the beat down they received....or else Lunardi just has a wheel with every team's name on it which he spins, and then throws a dart at a dartboard to determine seeding.

Yep, that's how he does it.
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Old 01-23-2015, 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Patrick Stevens who got all the teams right in 2014 as well being very accurate in seeding has UD in as a #8.

http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev...l#incart_river
I say let's start the tournament now.
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Old 01-24-2015, 10:19 PM
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Dropped a lot in dance card after loss @Davidson. Problem now is marquee wins. I might trade a marquee win @GW or @VCU for a bad loss like LaSalle Home.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 01-24-2015, 10:26 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dropped a lot in dance card after loss @Davidson. Problem now is marquee wins. I might trade a marquee win @GW or @VCU for a bad loss like LaSalle Home.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
GW is below us on Dance Card. I don't think your trade off would be good.
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Old 01-24-2015, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
GW is below us on Dance Card. I don't think your trade off would be good.
Top RPI 50 wins are huge, especially on the road. Many believe an away win, you should add 50 RPI places to the team you beat when the NCAA looks at the nitty grity report. So @GW who is #50 RPI is really like beating #1 RPI at a neutral court.

I think UD can afford 1 bad loss this season. Right now 5-3 top 100, 2-2 top 50 (with Ole Miss and Texas A&M being the wins). But we need some more top 50 wins.
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Old 01-25-2015, 10:02 AM
Glen Clark Glen Clark is offline
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dropped a lot in dance card after loss @Davidson. Problem now is marquee wins. I might trade a marquee win @GW or @VCU for a bad loss like LaSalle Home.

No deal - go undefeated at home, lose the road games you're supposed to lose, finish in the top four in conference, win one in the tournament = an NCAA bid.
Eleven seed vs eight/nine seed? I prefer the eleven seed.

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  #35  
Old 01-25-2015, 03:35 PM
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I've shared this one before. It's....different, and it's more than just bracketology. The guys that do it are a group of friends that are either in the media, or work directly in college athletics. It's kind of just their own personal playground and that they're just on there having fun. They don't really promote it at all, and most of their video podcasts seem to be filled with inside jokes that only the people who know them would pick up on or understand. I think they also take the approach that they're not necessarily trying to guess the committee, but rather act as if they were the committee. But, they are really knowledgeable, and I think they know some current and/or former committee members. But, the big downside is that they seem to take the approach of showing what they would do if they were on the committee, and don't seem as concerned as guessing the real one and being 100 percent accurate like most of the rest of the sites. But, they do seem to like the A10.

http://hoopshd.com/bracket-2/
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  #36  
Old 01-26-2015, 10:05 AM
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I was browsing Rpiforecast, and I noticed several big time programs that will probably miss the dance this year: Connecticut, Syracuse, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Florida, Florida State, BYU, etc.

That is surprising IMO.
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Old 01-26-2015, 10:56 AM
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#8 and 31 team in overall. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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  #38  
Old 01-26-2015, 09:11 PM
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Patrick Stevens who has nailed every at-large team the last two years and very accurate on seeds has Dayton #7 (puts UD somewhere between 25-28 team in).

http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev..._among_se.html

Latest dance card has UD as the 33rd team in.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 01-27-2015, 05:25 PM
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Too Soon to Swoon

We have 11 games to go.

Anything can happen (either ugly or GOOD)

6 games away from friendly confines.

Some of the toughest foes are away.

Let me see what these prognosticators are saying after the up-coming series of road games.

Waaaaay to Soon!
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Old 01-27-2015, 05:58 PM
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3 A-10 Teams Get Bids

As of today it would be VCU, Davidson and Dayton. GW has a huge opportunity tonight to move ahead of Dayton.
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Old 01-29-2015, 11:45 AM
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Latest from ESPN, UD an 8.

Texas A&M and Ole Miss are last 4 in = great for UD with RPI and wins versus teams in the field. GW also in the last 4 in now.

Davidson a first 4 out.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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Old 01-29-2015, 12:39 PM
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Indiana @ 7 + Georgetown @ 6 = HAHA!
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  #43  
Old 01-29-2015, 01:32 PM
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Cbssports has UD as 9 seed -- and 4 A-10 teams in!

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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Old 01-29-2015, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
Indiana @ 7 + Georgetown @ 6 = HAHA!
It's funny how underrated they are. Dance card had them both at 5. 8-)
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Old 01-29-2015, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Cbssports has UD as 9 seed -- and 4 A-10 teams in!

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
3 of the 4 11/12 seeds coming to Dayton per this bracket are Flyer Foes. That includes Davidson and Ole Miss squaring off. Would add extra fun for the local fans if something like this were to occur.
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Old 01-29-2015, 08:58 PM
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OK We won 8 in row, now 1 of 3 if memory is correct.

I'd hold off on these bracket seedings till the ship stops taking on water (or should I say the de-icers starting taking the ice off the wings )
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Old 01-29-2015, 09:06 PM
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Get right against Fordham and then steal one Friday baby. Nose to the grindstone.

Missed free throws...............
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Old 02-02-2015, 09:54 AM
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In order to be a LOCK for the tournament:

We need to end up with 26 wins. On paper that means going 7-2 the rest of the regular season with assumed losses at VCU and GW, although any combination probably would work. We would then need 2 wins in the A10 tournament to get to 26. We'd finish 26-7 and would be a lock. Anything less and we will have to watch the selection show from the edge of our seats. Of course, win the A10 tournament and . . . .
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Old 02-02-2015, 10:15 AM
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Originally Posted by N2663R View Post
In order to be a LOCK for the tournament:

We need to end up with 26 wins. On paper that means going 7-2 the rest of the regular season with assumed losses at VCU and GW, although any combination probably would work. We would then need 2 wins in the A10 tournament to get to 26. We'd finish 26-7 and would be a lock. Anything less and we will have to watch the selection show from the edge of our seats. Of course, win the A10 tournament and . . . .
Disagree. The other teams fighting for at-large spots also have a lot of winning to do and WILL lose some more games the rest of the way. Some of those losses will be against other at-large candidates who also have a lot of winning they need to do. While I'd be thrilled with 7-2 followed by a trip to the A10 Tourney Finals (which is what the above scenario would entail), I don't think they need to walk nearly that fine a line to be considered a lock. The A10, thank goodness, is looked upon with a good amount of respect as evidenced by 6 teams making The Dance last year. 7-2 in the back half of conference play? Stop right there. You're in at 14-4. 13-5 is probably also good enough. The scenario you mention is probably 6-7 seed range though. If you're lookinig for a magic # of wins needed to lock up a spot I'd say 24. 7-2 down the stretch, or 6-3 + a win in the A10 Quarters. 5-4 starts to get dicey and doesn't even guarantee the double bye to the A10 Quarters. But 2 A10 Tourney wins at that point would still lock things up for the Flyers.
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  #50  
Old 02-02-2015, 10:43 AM
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Redbengal, very good analysis. I think we sometimes get caught up looking at the selection of teams in a vacuum. You really need to compare teams to each other. Some years it will be more difficult than other years depending what is going on around the college B-ball landscape. Right now the Flyers are pretty good shape, but can't have too many bad losses down the stretch.
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Old 02-02-2015, 10:55 AM
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Dayton a 9 seed in Lunardi's latest bracketology released today.
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:19 PM
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The Flyers control their own destiny as the saying goes. That is important.
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Old 02-05-2015, 01:54 PM
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I typically like DanceCard but the latest update has me scratching my head and concerned.

Flyers sit at 43 which would be last 4 in.

A few teams above us gets me scratching - St. Johns (35) 2-6 vs top 50; Texas (36) 1-8 vs top 50; X (37) 3 100+ losses; Purdue (38) 3 100+ losses.

My mind tells me we should be above all 4 teams but I am a believer in DanceCard. Lots of games yet to play but this tells me that our margin for error is razor thin.
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Old 02-05-2015, 01:59 PM
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The Dance Card gets better when you reach the conference tournaments. It takes a lot of variables into account. I kind of agree with where it has us currently. No top 25 wins holds us down. I actually would expect us to be around a 10-11 seed right now above the first four, but many brackets have us at 8 or 9.
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Old 02-05-2015, 02:02 PM
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15.08% Chance of Bid?

Less than 1 chance out of 6?

Is that good?
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Old 02-05-2015, 02:05 PM
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I'm thinking it the lack of top 25 wins, the lack of top 50 wins, especially true road wins of that nature. UD was fairly strong in that category last season, they are lacking any solid (top 100) true road win. Dance card has fluxuated a lot in the last couple of weeks, as mentioned above, I'd imagine it gets tighter and tighter as you get closer to the end of the season. Picking up a win @ GW Friday night would be huge for the resume, huge for conference standing as well.
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Old 02-05-2015, 02:06 PM
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Originally Posted by UDTradition View Post
15.08% Chance of Bid?

Less than 1 chance out of 6?

Is that good?
Prior to the UMASS game, UD was a 99% or there about odds of getting a bid. It will change a bunch over the next couple of weeks before getting pretty clear towards the end.
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Old 02-05-2015, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
The Dance Card gets better when you reach the conference tournaments. It takes a lot of variables into account. I kind of agree with where it has us currently. No top 25 wins holds us down. I actually would expect us to be around a 10-11 seed right now above the first four, but many brackets have us at 8 or 9.
I hear you on top 25 wins but explain Purdue vs UD?

PU 2-3 against top 50 best win 32 IU home; UD 2-2 best win 33 TAM neutral
PU 6-2 vs 26 - 50; UD 4-1
PU 2-3 vs 101 - 200; UD3-1
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Old 02-05-2015, 02:31 PM
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I also enjoy Dance Card, but right now there is no freaking way Clemson is getting in the tournament as things stand today.

And I say this as the husband of a Clemson alum and a follower of that program for 15 years now. Clemson has a-ways to go before being a tournament team. It could happen, but they'd need a few more wins for sure.

I think UD just has to avoid bad losses, Clemson needs to win some games against some serious competition.
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Old 02-05-2015, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
I also enjoy Dance Card, but right now there is no freaking way Clemson is getting in the tournament as things stand today.

And I say this as the husband of a Clemson alum and a follower of that program for 15 years now. Clemson has a-ways to go before being a tournament team. It could happen, but they'd need a few more wins for sure.

I think UD just has to avoid bad losses, Clemson needs to win some games against some serious competition.
You are showing your too close to the team bias - in a negative way. Clemson has a top 25 win vs Arkansas. That must negate some of their bad losses. They are only 1 spot below UD. It think this shows how weak the bottom of the invitees are and unfortunately, that is where we stand now. Agree that we just need to take care of business. No bad losses but a win at GW or VCU would sure help.
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Old 02-05-2015, 03:58 PM
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Their RPI is 75. They have 4 sub-100 losses, including one to 200+ Winthrop at home.

They have a non-conference SOS of 196. If the tournament started today, they aren't getting in. I don't even think they are getting more than a cursory mention in the room, and a quick up-or-down vote.

This is not to say that they WON'T get in. They have been playing well of late, and have some chances for quality wins coming up including road games at Miami, Notre Dame, and Duke, and home games against Notre Dame and NC State.

Last edited by priceg75; 02-05-2015 at 04:01 PM..
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Old 02-05-2015, 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Their RPI is 75. They have 4 sub-100 losses, including one to 200+ Winthrop at home.

They have a non-conference SOS of 196. If the tournament started today, they aren't getting in. I don't even think they are getting more than a cursory mention in the room, and a quick up-or-down vote.

This is not to say that they WON'T get in. They have been playing well of late, and have some chances for quality wins coming up including road games at Miami, Notre Dame, and Duke, and home games against Notre Dame and NC State.
A blind squirrel finds a nut, that's how I would describe the top 25 win they have. Their true colors are shown in the larger sample size of sub-100 losses.
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Old 02-05-2015, 07:02 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I hear you on top 25 wins but explain Purdue vs UD?

PU 2-3 against top 50 best win 32 IU home; UD 2-2 best win 33 TAM neutral
PU 6-2 vs 26 - 50; UD 4-1
PU 2-3 vs 101 - 200; UD3-1
You are using the new, improved RPI numbers. Dance card uses the old RPI formula.

So, for instance, Purdue best win #27 Indiana home and UD best #35 Mississipi home.
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Old 02-05-2015, 07:19 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I hear you on top 25 wins but explain Purdue vs UD?

PU 2-3 against top 50 best win 32 IU home; UD 2-2 best win 33 TAM neutral
PU 6-2 vs 26 - 50; UD 4-1
PU 2-3 vs 101 - 200; UD3-1
I can't and won't even try. They have quite a bit on their site explaining their algorithm. It's hard to argue with their results.

I didn't even realize Purdue was listed as in at this stage.
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Old 02-07-2015, 11:15 AM
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IF we win our next 5 (and we should), it will come down to our last three games: @ VCU, v. Rhody, @LaSalle... We go 2-1, we are dancing.

1-2, and we will be sweating.
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Old 02-07-2015, 12:36 PM
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8-0, no doubt in. 7-1, should be in. 6-2, win a game or two in Brooklyn and I think we can get in. Anything less than that probably will put us on the other side of the bubble. Even with the short bench I feel like we could win the A10 tourney. Hopefully we get a top 4 seed and only have to win 3 to take it. Time will tell but I like our chances on a neutral court against anyone.
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Old 02-07-2015, 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer1995 View Post
8-0, no doubt in. 7-1, should be in. 6-2, win a game or two in Brooklyn and I think we can get in. Anything less than that probably will put us on the other side of the bubble. Even with the short bench I feel like we could win the A10 tourney. Hopefully we get a top 4 seed and only have to win 3 to take it. Time will tell but I like our chances on a neutral court against anyone.
LOL. I posted the same **** thing using different words in another thread mere seconds ago
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Old 02-07-2015, 04:27 PM
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I think it would take a superhuman effort for us to win the A10 Tournament. Our limited lineup in a short turnaround time for 3 games will be a bit much. IMO 2-1 is the best we can hope for.
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Old 02-07-2015, 05:30 PM
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http://bracketmatrix.com/

Seems no one recalculated GW win over Dayton. You know it has to change a little.

So VCU, then Dayton and GW inside the bubble?
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Old 02-07-2015, 06:15 PM
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http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Well, if you are a believer in dance card, we are the fifth team on the wrong side of the bubble. Yesterday we were the second to last team on the right side of the bubble.
Hard to believe a loss on the road to a good team dropped us seven spots.
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Old 02-07-2015, 07:46 PM
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Originally Posted by joeybaloney View Post
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Well, if you are a believer in dance card, we are the fifth team on the wrong side of the bubble. Yesterday we were the second to last team on the right side of the bubble.
Hard to believe a loss on the road to a good team dropped us seven spots.
I am a believer in Dance Card but it is only relevant after all the games have been played. There are probably 20 teams (10 above the line and 10 below the line) in play for the last 10 slots.
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Old 02-08-2015, 09:13 AM
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Jerry Palm of CBS Sports updated his Bracketology picks late Saturday night (2/7/15), and he places 8 seed Dayton against 9 seed Eggsavier in Louisville, with the winner getting the winner of 1 seed Kentucky and the survivor of one of the First Four UD Arena Games.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Wow, can you imagine the ticket scalp on that session in Louisville. Oh my goodness, the UK fan size will drive that price up to unbelievable amounts...crazy.

Sounds interesting. So would you want the Dayton/XU game?
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Old 02-08-2015, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Jerry Palm of CBS Sports updated his Bracketology picks late Saturday night (2/7/15), and he places 8 seed Dayton against 9 seed Eggsavier in Louisville, with the winner getting the winner of 1 seed Kentucky and the survivor of one of the First Four UD Arena Games.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Wow, can you imagine the ticket scalp on that session in Louisville. Oh my goodness, the UK fan size will drive that price up to unbelievable amounts...crazy.

Sounds interesting. So would you want the Dayton/XU game?
Not that it really makes a difference but interesting that Dayton is the 8 seed and X the 9. Contrasting resumes. X has 3 top 25 wins and Dayton none. X has 3 100+ losses and Dayton none.

To answer your question - bring it on.
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Old 02-08-2015, 11:17 AM
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So I guess that means bring on Kentucky as well. I fell confident that UD can and would compete well against both X and UK; but, a UD/X match-up just across the river, has the tendency to reduce what would otherwise be a typical of national interest NCAA game, and reduce to a local regional rivalry that I think few folks outside of the southwest Ohio or northern Kentucky would pay much attention to. Beating XU in an NCAA tourney game, and thus getting to play UK, would be awesome, out-of-site, and out-of-this-world, fun for UD fans. However, losing to them would not only blow big chunks, but it might also undo some of the momentum gained by the program from the Regional Eight Run.
The perspective would be that "pesky Dayton UPSETT Ohio State last year, but cannot beat mediocre middling local Xavier in first round". That might be overstating it, but I know that perspective will exist. And the X fans would once again thumb their program superiority and Big East bull in our face.

I think I would much rather have UD get past the 8/9 seed pairing and be in position to draw a power conference school that clearly feels superior to UD, and thus fails to come buckle- downed with the necessary intensity to beat UD they underestimate. I have always believe that the UD program is much better as the Hunter than we have been as the hunted. If you play XU in game one, there is zero surprise element, as X and their fan-base will not take UD lightly.

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Old 02-08-2015, 11:23 AM
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Risk/Reward. Win it and Dayton is clearly the preeminent program in southwest Ohio.
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Old 02-08-2015, 11:31 AM
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Very True.
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Old 02-08-2015, 08:54 PM
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I'm not sure if this link has been posted here, but I like the CBS version of the Bubble watch because each team is compared with the same consistent RPI grid. When you look at this watch - things look good compared to the other bubble teams.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...y/bubble-watch
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Old 02-08-2015, 09:38 PM
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Originally Posted by joeybaloney View Post
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Well, if you are a believer in dance card, we are the fifth team on the wrong side of the bubble. Yesterday we were the second to last team on the right side of the bubble.
Hard to believe a loss on the road to a good team dropped us seven spots.
And we dropped another spot today, without even playing a game.
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Old 02-08-2015, 10:37 PM
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You must use the Dance Card at your own risk. Especially in February. Big swings due to more more variables than the RPI. We could beat VCU and move up 20 spots. Once we get to conference tournaments it will start to settle a little.

It is the best indicator down the home stretch.
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Old 02-09-2015, 08:04 AM
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Dayton #37 is Joe's latest bracket math on espn insider which makes UD the top 10 seed. Ole Miss #38 and Texas A&M #39. Last 4 in are 44-47 and last 4 buys are 40-43.

Dayton was #33, probably would have gone up to 28-30 if UD would have beat GW, but oh well.

Still solidly in.

As others have noted, dance card swings wildly at this point in the season. Start paying attention to it week before the regular season ends and during the A-10 tourney -- that is when it becomes increasingly accurate.
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Old 02-09-2015, 08:23 AM
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"The Guru," the college basketball writer in the NY Daily News, does an abbreviated bracketology. He has UD as a #10 seed losing in the second round to SMU.
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Old 02-09-2015, 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dayton #37 is Joe's latest bracket math on espn insider which makes UD the top 10 seed. Ole Miss #38 and Texas A&M #39. Last 4 in are 44-47 and last 4 buys are 40-43.

Dayton was #33, probably would have gone up to 28-30 if UD would have beat GW, but oh well.

Still solidly in.

As others have noted, dance card swings wildly at this point in the season. Start paying attention to it week before the regular season ends and during the A-10 tourney -- that is when it becomes increasingly accurate.
I think the bracketologists use some forward thinking Dance Card only uses statistics. Obviously winning at VCU would be big in that it would give us a top 25 win and on the road at that. Other than that (possibly an A10 tourney game) I am not sure what we can do to improve out record statistically. It may be a case where we are looking for other teams to play themselves out rather than play ourselves in.
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Old 02-09-2015, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
"The Guru," the college basketball writer in the NY Daily News, does an abbreviated bracketology. He has UD as a #10 seed losing in the second round to SMU.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/co...icle-1.2107867

Bowling Green hasn't made the tournament since 1968...Harvard in again, somebody on here was ripping on Harvard earlier.

I don't see where the writer predicts a UD loss to SMU? If UD beats SMU, then they would most likely play Sean and Arizona, that would be great theatre.


Last edited by ud2; 02-09-2015 at 01:56 PM..
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Old 02-09-2015, 01:56 PM
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interesting... Arizona is playing NC Central AND Albany I wonder who the odd team left out is since he has AZ in there twice
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Old 02-09-2015, 02:05 PM
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Tulsa in there twice too, shoddy editing/error checking?


Only two A10 teams, UD and VCU, no Davidson?

Four American teams, Tulsa, SMU, Cincinnati, and Temple, no Memphis and no UConn.

SEVEN, wow, BE teams, Seton Hall, St. John's, Xavier, Butler, Providence, Georgetown, and Villanova.

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Old 02-09-2015, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Tulsa in there twice too, shoddy editing/error checking?


Only two A10 teams, UD and VCU, no Davidson?

Four American teams, Tulsa, SMU, Cincinnati, and Temple, no Memphis.

SEVEN, wow, BE teams, Seton Hall, St. John's, Xavier, Butler, Providence, Georgetown, and Villanova.
Oh I think I see where the mistake is there.

It would be depending on the New York Daily News to do "editing" and/or "error checking".
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Old 02-09-2015, 02:25 PM
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FWIW, Patrick Stevens, who is probably the best at this stuff has the Flyers firmly in today as a 9 seed. http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stev...in_climbs.html
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Old 02-09-2015, 02:27 PM
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Actually Stevens has us in as an 8 seed.
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Old 02-09-2015, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Actually Stevens has us in as an 8 seed.
taking on 9 seed Iowa, winner to fact Duke ( if they get by New Mexico State). I like that.
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Old 02-09-2015, 03:01 PM
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Does anyone know a where to go to look at previous year's resumes? I would like to look at some of the past year's snubs and compare them to the Flyers.
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Old 02-09-2015, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Does anyone know a where to go to look at previous year's resumes? I would like to look at some of the past year's snubs and compare them to the Flyers.

http://realtimerpi.com/2013-2014/rpi_Men.html

I have frequently looked at realtimerpi, but they only have rpi and SOS, no top 50/100/etc. wins/losses or any stuff like that.

Their data goes back around 10 or 15 years.

The underlined teams got automatic bids, the italicized teams got at large bids. For some years, the underline/italics thing might be the reverse of what I just wrote.

The link for 2012-13, 11-12, etc. is at the bottom of the page.

I'm not aware of other sites that archive this stuff.

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Old 02-09-2015, 04:09 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
http://realtimerpi.com/2013-2014/rpi_Men.html

I have frequently looked at realtimerpi, but they only have rpi and SOS, no top 50/100/etc. wins/losses or any stuff like that.

Their data goes back around 10 or 15 years.

The underlined teams got automatic bids, the italicized teams got at large bids. For some years, the underline/italics thing might be the reverse of what I just wrote.

The link for 2012-13, 11-12, etc. is at the bottom of the page.

I'm not aware of other sites that archive this stuff.
Thanks UD2. Actually you can click on a team and it will bring you to its schedule/results with opponents RPI. Like with the complete RPI standings, it will bring you to this year's schedule and you have to click on the link a the bottom to get you to the previous year's results.

I feel better. I looked at last year's biggest RPI snubs - So Miss (34) and Toledo (38). Their results come nowhere near UD's results this year so far.
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Old 02-09-2015, 04:13 PM
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SMU 23-9 (45 RPI) (113 sos) Aac 12-7

This looks like us IMO if we are 24-8. SMU, I believe was one team from being in.

Those with figures for various win/loss please post.

By the way, anybody know which thread with impressive list of teams Dayton beat last time having played them?
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Old 02-09-2015, 05:31 PM
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Last season's SMU squad had a terrible OOC record, that was strengthened in the AAC, UD had a decent OOC SOS and a decent in conference SOS. Last season, SMU knocked off Memphis & Cincy at home, and swept UConn. While UConn won it all, they were only a 10 seed or something along those lines heading into the dance, obviously good, but not a world beater (yet). SMU had 1 200+ rpi loss as well as a loss to Houston in the conference tournament (rpi of 143). RPI forecast (using Sag ratings) has UD at 23-7 heading into the A10 tournament, that would likely include @ VCU and 1 other loss (UD is favored in all remaining games aside from VCU). The expected RPI at that point would be around 37.

In short, if UD takes care of the things they're suppose to take care of (like winning the next 5) they'll be in pretty good shape heading to VCU. Certainly nothing will be locked up, but they can probably afford 1 slip up aside from VCU for every game they win in Brooklyn.

Here's to hoping.
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Old 02-09-2015, 06:12 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Thanks UD2. Actually you can click on a team and it will bring you to its schedule/results with opponents RPI. Like with the complete RPI standings, it will bring you to this year's schedule and you have to click on the link a the bottom to get you to the previous year's results.

I feel better. I looked at last year's biggest RPI snubs - So Miss (34) and Toledo (38). Their results come nowhere near UD's results this year so far.
Yes, what I meant was that it would be great if realtimerpi would also put on the page I linked to, stuff like top 50 wins, top 100 wins, 150+ rpi losses, 200+ rpi losses, record over the last ten games, big road wins, etc., that way all the pertinent resume information would be right there on one page archived for viewing in later years if desired.

And I'm not so sure if I feel comfortable about Southern Miss last year, they were rpi #34 with a SOS of 132, and they were snubbed. That is pretty close to UD's profile this year, at least strictly in terms of rpi and SOS. Maybe Southern Miss had no good rpi wins or road wins or whatever.

Right now UD's SOS is around 105, UD's rpi will obviously fluctuate depending on their wins and losses.

Last edited by ud2; 02-09-2015 at 06:18 PM..
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Old 02-09-2015, 06:42 PM
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Hey now, this would be great fun, CBS's Jerry Palm has 8 seed UD vs. 9 seed Xavier in Louisville with the winner playing UK.


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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Old 02-09-2015, 08:56 PM
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Smile

Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Hey now, this would be great fun, CBS's Jerry Palm has 8 seed UD vs. 9 seed Xavier in Louisville with the winner playing UK.


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
The two teams in the universe that I despise the most are the Kentucky Wildcats and the Xavier Musketeers, in that order. To say I hate them both with the intensity of a thousand white suns is understated. I think we very well could beat X, but I shudder to think of going up against UK's size and depth.

Of course, if the Flyers pulled off both victories it would be the happiest 48 hour period in my life as a sports fan
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Old 02-09-2015, 10:19 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
SMU 23-9 (45 RPI) (113 sos) Aac 12-7

This looks like us IMO if we are 24-8. SMU, I believe was one team from being in.

Those with figures for various win/loss please post.

By the way, anybody know which thread with impressive list of teams Dayton beat last time having played them?
Actually, we are quite different than last year's SMU team. SMU had 3 bad losses (we have zero) and more importantly, SMU's OOC SOS was around 250. The committee even commented on the fact that SMU played a really weak non-con schedule.
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Old 02-09-2015, 10:54 PM
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CBS has seven BE teams in too, surprising that that is possible, the math I thought would make that very difficult, I'll believe it when it happens I guess.
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Old 02-09-2015, 11:04 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Hey now, this would be great fun, CBS's Jerry Palm has 8 seed UD vs. 9 seed Xavier in Louisville with the winner playing UK.


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
I'd like to see UD and XU match up just to mess with the announcers. Between the two teams we have Kyle Davis, Myles Davis, Darrell Davis and Dee Davis.
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