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  #301  
Old 02-22-2017, 08:42 AM
CE80 CE80 is offline
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
Once again you're supporting a system that is far less likely to produce the results that you're saying you want.

The merit rankings will favor the power five a lot more than the predictive rankings simply because they have more chances to beat good teams at home. Ken Pom has both Wichita and Saint Mary's in the top 15, and SMU at #17, and Cincinnati at #22. It also has Dayton at #33, and Houston of all teams at #40 (not sure I understand that one). No merit based computer system would have any of those teams ranked anywhere close to that.

The biggest problem I have with the predictive rankings are that they don't really differentiate between a one point win and a two point loss, even though one is a win and the other is a loss. But, the biggest asset to the predictive polls is that it indicates who some of the better teams are that people may miss if they're only looking at things on the surface. Now, I don't believe Wichita State to be a top fifteen team, but I certainly believe them to be a top forty team. Easily. Even though their surface merit doesn't indicate it.

The best thing about the merit rankings is that it rewards you for beating good teams. But, the two biggest problems with the merit rankings is that it creates a huge circumstantial advantage for the power conferences, which is something you indicated that you wanted to avoid. Again, going to a merit based system to eliminate this circumstantial advantage is like going on a Big Mac diet to lose wait. It makes it worse.

The other huge problem is that the merit rankings do not identify games against teams outside the top fifty that are hard to win. Let's look at Wichita State. They won at Colorado State before Colorado State lost three of their starters for the season. At the time, Colorado State was actually a good team, and that was an impressive win. No merit ranking would identify that as a good win. Wichita has also won at Northern Iowa, at Loyola, and at Evansville. Now, those aren't going to be identified as quality wins by a merit ranking system because they're not quality teams, but the reality is those three teams are a combined 28-7 at home when they're not playing Wichita State.

Let's compare that to a team from the Big Ten who beats Michigan at home, or a team from the Big Twelve that beats TCU at home. Those are being listed as quality wins. The reality is that Michigan, while clearly better than Loyola, Evansville, and Northern Iowa, has still only won one road game this year. TCU has only won two. Beating those two teams at home is actually easier than beating Northern Iowa or Loyola on the road, yet a merit ranking would give credit for the former and not the latter.

That's why when a team like Hawaii beats Cal, or a team like UALR beats Purdue, which both teams did in the NCAA Tournament last year, it's not surprising. Neither of those teams won a "quality game" as the merit rankings would define, but they both won multiple games that were harder to win than any of hte games that Purdue or Cal won. Hawaii won at UC Irvine. Cal didn't come close to winning a game as difficult as that. They did beat better teams, but they were all at home and hte vast majority of them were against teams that had losing records on the road.

The merit rankings don't pick up on that. That's why I think you need a committee to look at both. Now, I think the committee needs to do a much better job at looking at both, but still, it's better than a merit based ranking system that will all but assuredly cut out the non power conference teams.
What merit rankings? Would it not be possible to design a merit ranking system that is not as slanted toward the P5? Could higher value be placed on OOC road wins? Consider teams in certain groupings the same - i.e, an RPI 250 team no worse than an RPI 150 team? Devalue conference home wins? I doubt it will happen because the P5 would not allow it but I believe a system could be designed that would even the playing field more. Push the P5 to play a few more OOC road games.
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  #302  
Old 02-22-2017, 08:49 AM
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The P5 are circling the wagons. Someone will go 20 conference games.
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  #303  
Old 02-22-2017, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
The P5 are circling the wagons. Someone will go 20 conference games.
That is already being talked about here in ACC country. With 15 teams, they want to play more ACC teams.
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  #304  
Old 02-22-2017, 08:58 AM
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It's not just being talked about, it is on the books for 2019. Same year that ACC Network launches.
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  #305  
Old 02-22-2017, 09:13 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
I don't think we should even play the games anymore. Just have a recruiting battle and let the computers tell us how everybody does and who wins the Championships. So this year we are A10 runner-ups because the computers all said URI was supposed to be the best team in the A10.
I am not following your comments, sarcasm is hard to pick up on a message board.

Everybody knows that it is better to have an objective/computer-based system making the picks, no more crooked backroom deals.

Originally Posted by Rick Scaia View Post
...but the committee has pre-announced they're completely changing the game this year...
I don't recall this happening, I just searched for this, but found nothing, do you have a link?
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  #306  
Old 02-22-2017, 09:28 AM
CE80 CE80 is offline
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[QUOTE=ud2;489337]I am not following your comments, sarcasm is hard to pick up on a message board.

QUOTE]

I know what you mean. Somebody keeps posting about a 15/15 schedule and I never know if he is serious or not.
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  #307  
Old 02-22-2017, 09:56 AM
CT Flyer CT Flyer is offline
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I am not following your comments, sarcasm is hard to pick up on a message board.

Everybody knows that it is better to have an objective/computer-based system making the picks, no more crooked backroom deals.
It was sarcasm because I am not a big fan of advanced metrics deciding who are the best teams. I understand with such a large amount of teams, who play very disparate schedules, vying for a small amount of tourney spots, you need something to judge them by. But it just seems to me like winning isn't the most important thing anymore, when after all that was the original objective when Mr. Naismith invented the game. I wish there was a computer model that could figure this out by putting the majority of the importance on winning and not how efficient you were offensively or defensively, how close you kept the game on the road against a good team or that you only beat a bad team by four points at home. In the NFL I'm happy when my team makes the playoffs even though they were only ranked 19th offensively and 22nd defensively and only beat the last place team in their division by a field goal on the last play.
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  #308  
Old 02-22-2017, 10:57 AM
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When UD played in the 1967 NCAA T there were 22 other teams in the Dance...half non P5. Apparently, too many good teams were left out (along with money left on the table), so the tournament expanded to 28 teams, then 32 teams, then 64 and finally 68.
Go to 128 teams and that still wouldn't do! Let everyone participate and I bet D2s say "What about me Porky, we're better than a bunch of those cocky D1s...aren't we?!?
As said before on this board...just win!!!
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  #309  
Old 02-22-2017, 12:08 PM
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I was just watching a 2016 NCAA tournament highlights video. Still makes me sick. We had an even easier path to the Final 4 than we did in 2014 had we been able to get our head out of our butts and beat Syracuse.

I can only pray for a path that easy this year. Maybe we could be in the 8/9 game and be opposite the first 16 over 1 seed upset in history.
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  #310  
Old 02-22-2017, 12:11 PM
xubrew xubrew is offline
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
What merit rankings? Would it not be possible to design a merit ranking system that is not as slanted toward the P5? Could higher value be placed on OOC road wins? Consider teams in certain groupings the same - i.e, an RPI 250 team no worse than an RPI 150 team? Devalue conference home wins? I doubt it will happen because the P5 would not allow it but I believe a system could be designed that would even the playing field more. Push the P5 to play a few more OOC road games.
The three that come to mind are the RPI (which is more of a rating than a ranking, so perhaps that's not fair), the KPI, and the SOR (strength of resume ranking).

But regardless of what specific ranking your talking about, I believe the following is generally true. Look at any of the top 100 teams, particularly those that are on the bubble, and you'll notice that just about all of the non-power conference teams are ranked higher in the predictive rankings than they are in the merit rankings. That means that they're better than what their resume merit indicates, which means they're at a general circumstantial disadvantage if we go strictly off a merit based ranking. Now I'm sure you can find exceptions to that, but in general, that's true.

So when I hear someone say "We need to go to a merit based computer ranking because the predictive rankings aren't fair to the non power conference teams," my reaction is that this person does not really know what they're talking about.

Full disclosure, I know how most of the power rankings generally work, but I'm not someone who obsesses over them. I think they're good when it comes to providing a general reference, but I don't want them to do my thinking for me. I said in the earlier post some of the things I like and dislike about both types of rankings. And, I think the ideal result is somewhere in the middle. To say that Wichita State is a #3 seed is absurd, but to say they don't belong in the tournament at all is absurd. I think that they've won games that are harder to win than what the merit rankings give them credit for, but at the same time aren't so hard to win that they belong on the #3 or #4 line.

I also find it disturbing that some of the biggest proponents of the rankings don't really even know how they work. They don't even know what they're looking at. But, they love it anyway for whatever reason. The way I evaluate teams is actually quite simple in principle. How hard was it to win the games that you won? That's really it. That isn't always easy to specifically quantify, but I do think that it's harder to win at Northern Iowa than it is to win at home against a lot of top fifty teams who lose more than half of their road games. So, if we can find a way to quantify that, then that will be the ranking that I like the best.
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  #311  
Old 02-22-2017, 12:23 PM
Rick Scaia Rick Scaia is offline
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I don't recall this happening, I just searched for this, but found nothing, do you have a link?
It's been moving slowly in this direction for years, with many journalists invited to do mock selections, which revealed a diminishing importance of the RPI, and an increase in importance of quality of wins and losses, and a push towards bringing other advanced metrics into the discussion.

But this year, the selection people met two months ahead of time to agree that it's time to officially change things up, with help from some of the leading advanced metricians. Problem is, they didn't agree upon what that change should be, merely that they are going to bring more metrics and ideas into the room. That doesn't sit well with me, as the more randomly applied criteria are involved, the less accountable they can be held. Thus, the involved discussion of ratings that are descriptive (of wins and losses and the quality thereof) or predictive (of future performance based on player skills) and exactly which criteria people prefer.

Here's the most recent write-up I've seen: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...madness-teams/
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  #312  
Old 02-22-2017, 12:33 PM
TA111 TA111 is offline
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http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-bas...e1agjwdwiv0wk1
Here's a good article discussing the predictive vs merit selection process. Can't really "combine" the two since they're really disparate methods. Interesting that Ken Pomroy, The Godfather of predictive analysis, believes teams should be selected based upon merit. I have read that there was some discussion that you would select teams based upon a merit based system and then seed them using a predictive analysis. I think that could work.
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  #313  
Old 02-22-2017, 12:43 PM
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Could this be the year that sees the selection committee move UD up the seed line compared to the current conventional prognosticating from the so called bracketologist?

Historically, and this is what many of us fear right now, we have seen the Flyers seeding seriously down graded, sometimes to the point of wrong side of bubble; but I am thinking maybe with all of the Dayton naysayers...see Mr. Palm, Joey Brackets, et.al., that maybe a strong finish gets the Flyers an usually high seed. Think about some of the profiles these guys have up on the 5 and 6 lines; SMU???????? Really, have you looked at SMU's profile, SOS, and top 100 record, compared to that of UD? The AAC and A10 are virtually deadlocked in the conference RPI, and both conferences look to be on about 2-3 team bid pace; so what the heck makes SMU a five versus Dayton an 8, 9, 10?

The Dayton bias is so real, and not imagined. If Dayton wins, we remain on the bubble; but if Rhody wins, they "helped themselves dramatically"???????? WTF is that!?!?!?!?
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  #314  
Old 02-22-2017, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post

The Dayton bias is so real, and not imagined. If Dayton wins, we remain on the bubble; but if Rhody wins, they "helped themselves dramatically"???????? WTF is that!?!?!?!?
I'm not saying I agree with that assessment, but it's an elo chess concept. And I do kind of agree with the concept.

If you beat someone that's behind you then you stay where you are.

If you beat someone that's ahead of you then you move up.

If you lose to someone that's ahead of you then you stay where you are.

If you lose to someone that's behind you then you move down.

The reason Dayton wouldn't move up by winning that game, but Rhody would, is because you're ahead of them.
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Old 02-22-2017, 12:56 PM
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Still doesn't explain Wichita State. I hate to pick on them as the example, but why are they ranked so highly in both predictive and merit based models? All they have done is beat up on mediocre to bad teams all year. So we should forget trying to have a strong non-con, and just schedule teams from RPI 150+ and win them all? And then go 16-2 in conference, and voila? A top-24 seed?
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Still doesn't explain Wichita State. I hate to pick on them as the example, but why are they ranked so highly in both predictive and merit based models? All they have done is beat up on mediocre to bad teams all year. So we should forget trying to have a strong non-con, and just schedule teams from RPI 150+ and win them all? And then go 16-2 in conference, and voila? A top-24 seed?
They're not high in the merit based rankings, unless you consider #43 to be high. That's what the KPI has them at. That's barely in the field, and it's low enough to where if they lose a game in the conference tournament it probably knocks them outside the bubble according that metric.

EDIT: I mention the KPI because I've heard Mark Hollis reference it and indicate that he looks at it. That's the committee chairman.

Last edited by xubrew; 02-22-2017 at 01:03 PM..
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
I'm not saying I agree with that assessment, but it's an elo chess concept. And I do kind of agree with the concept.

If you beat someone that's behind you then you stay where you are.

If you beat someone that's ahead of you then you move up.

If you lose to someone that's ahead of you then you stay where you are.

If you lose to someone that's behind you then you move down.

The reason Dayton wouldn't move up by winning that game, but Rhody would, is because you're ahead of them.
the week we beat St Joes and URI...we moved down on Lunardi's bracket.
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
the week we beat St Joes and URI...we moved down on Lunardi's bracket.
Well, ask him. And remember that what he says doesn't really mean a **** thing. I was just explaining how beating a team behind you wouldn't necessarily move you up.
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
the week we beat St Joes and URI...we moved down on Lunardi's bracket.
That was the "You Beat My School" bias in effect!
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
Well, ask him. And remember that what he says doesn't really mean a **** thing. I was just explaining how beating a team behind you wouldn't necessarily move you up.
And I was explaining how beating a team (or two) behind you moved us down.

The committee is over-metric'd. Might as well go with Vitale's BDI, bald dome index. Call it the basketball committee and tell me the NCAA isn't involved...I don't believe it. And an NCAA that still allows: A) Pitino to coach, B) Caliapari to coach, C) Boheim to coach, and D) UNC to still field a team, proves each day they are an impotent organization.
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:26 PM
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Well, maybe he moved other teams up instead of moving UD down.

I only say this because I know that Lunardi would be the first person to tell you this, but don't of him and the committee as being one and the same. They're not. In fact he kind of railed on the committee last year (and rightfully so), so just because he's moving you up, down, and sideways from week to week doesn't really mean anything.
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
If you beat someone that's behind you then you stay where you are. The reason Dayton wouldn't move up by winning that game, but Rhody would, is because you're ahead of them.
But we beat them on the road. I forget the exact numbers, but beating a top 75 team on the road is like beating a top 25 team at home.
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:46 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
They're not high in the merit based rankings, unless you consider #43 to be high. That's what the KPI has them at. That's barely in the field, and it's low enough to where if they lose a game in the conference tournament it probably knocks them outside the bubble according that metric.

EDIT: I mention the KPI because I've heard Mark Hollis reference it and indicate that he looks at it. That's the committee chairman.
Speaking of KPI, we are currently 29. We finished the season at 19 on Selection Sunday last year, and were a 7 seed. So that would put us around a 9 seed now. VCU is currently at 26.
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
They're not high in the merit based rankings, unless you consider #43 to be high. That's what the KPI has them at. That's barely in the field, and it's low enough to where if they lose a game in the conference tournament it probably knocks them outside the bubble according that metric.

EDIT: I mention the KPI because I've heard Mark Hollis reference it and indicate that he looks at it. That's the committee chairman.
#43 is about as low as they are in any of the ranking systems. Average seems to be more like in the high-20's, low-30's.
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
#43 is about as low as they are in any of the ranking systems. Average seems to be more like in the high-20's, low-30's.
Which ones?? They're 40th in the RPI (which again isn't a ranking), 43rd in the KPI, and 32nd in the SOR. What other merit based rankings are there?? There is the JNG, which has them at 45th, but although that ranking is pretty accurate when it comes to matching what the committee does it's not a major one I don't know if that's even relevant.

Dayton is ahead of Wichita in all of the merit based rankings, so whatever it is Wichita is doing, Dayton shouldn't do it. It's the predictive rankings (Sagarin, Kenpom, BPI) that are ranking them in the top twenty, and in some cases the top fifteen.
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:01 PM
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I've seen Palm say that as well in regards to teams in the past, not that a team "moved down" because of anything they did directly, but were either passed by other teams or who's resume got worse because a key win or two all of a sudden got worse. In the case of Lunardi, looks like that coincides w/ Rhody's loss to Fordham. For better or worse, the two wins over Rhody are probably are best to date, and they took a huge hit that week.
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:01 PM
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It is amazing that Wichita State has played only 6 Top 100 games (and lost 4 of them),

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Old 02-22-2017, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
Well, maybe he moved other teams up instead of moving UD down.

I only say this because I know that Lunardi would be the first person to tell you this, but don't of him and the committee as being one and the same. They're not. In fact he kind of railed on the committee last year (and rightfully so), so just because he's moving you up, down, and sideways from week to week doesn't really mean anything.
I don't remember this. What did he talk about?
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
The P5 are circling the wagons. Someone will go 20 conference games.
Seems that this will hurt the sos if you play the same percentage of "good" OOC games and "bad/buy game" OOC games.

UD is already playing SLU, URI, and VCU twice. But, we are now also playing SBU, projected #99, and Duquesne, projected #236, twice.

Going to 20 A10 games is going to mean doubling up on more middle-tier and lower-tier A10 teams. More Duquesne-ish type teams are now going to be on the schedule twice.

The development of 18 and 20 game league schedules has been a very bad thing for non-p5 schools IMO.

The rich are going to get richer, and the poor are going to get poorer.

When the A10 was a 16 game schedule, UD played 8 good OOC games and 6 bad/buy OOC games. So, 57% of the OOC games were good.

Now that the A10 schedule is 18 games, UD plays 7 good OOC games and 5 bad/buy games. So, 58% of the OOC games are good.

If the A10 goes to a 20 game league schedule, then UD will probably play 6 good OOC games and 4 bad/buy games. So, 60% of the OOC games will be good.

I just think that if the scheduling model stays the same, it is going to be tough to get better than a 7, 8, 9, 10, or 11 seed. There are not enough opportunities to play good opponents to move up in seeding.

Dropping a buy game every year and replacing it with a home and home could improve the seed 4 or 5 spots. So, now you are looking at a ceiling of a 3 or 4, maybe a 2, instead of a 7, maybe a 5 or 6.

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Old 02-22-2017, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
The three that come to mind are the RPI (which is more of a rating than a ranking, so perhaps that's not fair), the KPI, and the SOR (strength of resume ranking).

But regardless of what specific ranking your talking about, I believe the following is generally true. Look at any of the top 100 teams, particularly those that are on the bubble, and you'll notice that just about all of the non-power conference teams are ranked higher in the predictive rankings than they are in the merit rankings. That means that they're better than what their resume merit indicates, which means they're at a general circumstantial disadvantage if we go strictly off a merit based ranking. Now I'm sure you can find exceptions to that, but in general, that's true.

So when I hear someone say "We need to go to a merit based computer ranking because the predictive rankings aren't fair to the non power conference teams," my reaction is that this person does not really know what they're talking about.

Full disclosure, I know how most of the power rankings generally work, but I'm not someone who obsesses over them. I think they're good when it comes to providing a general reference, but I don't want them to do my thinking for me. I said in the earlier post some of the things I like and dislike about both types of rankings. And, I think the ideal result is somewhere in the middle. To say that Wichita State is a #3 seed is absurd, but to say they don't belong in the tournament at all is absurd. I think that they've won games that are harder to win than what the merit rankings give them credit for, but at the same time aren't so hard to win that they belong on the #3 or #4 line.

I also find it disturbing that some of the biggest proponents of the rankings don't really even know how they work. They don't even know what they're looking at. But, they love it anyway for whatever reason. The way I evaluate teams is actually quite simple in principle. How hard was it to win the games that you won? That's really it. That isn't always easy to specifically quantify, but I do think that it's harder to win at Northern Iowa than it is to win at home against a lot of top fifty teams who lose more than half of their road games. So, if we can find a way to quantify that, then that will be the ranking that I like the best.
I think you're missing my point on merit based rankings. You are pointing out the current ones which I believe have flaws (RPI doesn't give enough credit for road wins). You can create a merit based system to reward or penalize whatever you want.
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Dillomernda View Post
I don't remember this. What did he talk about?
http://www.espn.com/blog/collegebask...nd-here-is-how
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
It was sarcasm because I am not a big fan of advanced metrics deciding who are the best teams. I understand with such a large amount of teams, who play very disparate schedules, vying for a small amount of tourney spots, you need something to judge them by. But it just seems to me like winning isn't the most important thing anymore, when after all that was the original objective when Mr. Naismith invented the game. I wish there was a computer model that could figure this out by putting the majority of the importance on winning and not how efficient you were offensively or defensively, how close you kept the game on the road against a good team or that you only beat a bad team by four points at home. In the NFL I'm happy when my team makes the playoffs even though they were only ranked 19th offensively and 22nd defensively and only beat the last place team in their division by a field goal on the last play.
I bet this type of ranking system already exists, the committee knows that, they just do not want to use it.

Xubrew? Anyone?
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I bet this type of ranking system already exists, the committee knows that, they just do not want to use it.

Xubrew? Anyone?
Yes, it's the team's overall record. The entire emphasis is on whether or not you won or lost. It's also on all the team sheets. Wichita State is doing quite well in that one.
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I think you're missing my point on merit based rankings. You are pointing out the current ones which I believe have flaws (RPI doesn't give enough credit for road wins). You can create a merit based system to reward or penalize whatever you want.
Okay, I understand.

I personally do not have the capabilities of creating and running a ranking like this, but I'd like to see what the RPI would look like if the second layer of it (meaning the 50% that is your oppoennt's W/L record) accounted for what the team's home or road record was depending on where the game is played.

In other words, if you play at Northern Iowa, then their record goes in as 8-3. If Northern Iowa plays you at home, then the record goes in as 3-8.

Actually, since teams typically play each other twice in conference play, the final results may not come out all that differently.
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
It is amazing that Wichita State has played only 6 Top 100 games (and lost 4 of them),
...and yet many brackets are seeding them right next to us.

Perception has always been reality. I hope one day we earn that sort of latitude.
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:54 PM
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It may not matter much in conference play, but I'd bet it would make a huge difference to all those teams that load up on poor road warrior type teams out to collect a paycheck and not much else, the SWAC's of the world and rarely leave their home court until conference play starts.
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Old 02-22-2017, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
When the A10 was a 16 game schedule, UD played 8 good OOC games and 6 bad/buy OOC games. So, 57% of the OOC games were good.

Now that the A10 schedule is 18 games, UD plays 7 good OOC games and 5 bad/buy games. So, 58% of the OOC games are good.

If the A10 goes to a 20 game league schedule, then UD will probably play 6 good OOC games and 4 bad/buy games. So, 60% of the OOC games will be good.

I just think that if the scheduling model stays the same, it is going to be tough to get better than a 7, 8, 9, 10, or 11 seed. There are not enough opportunities to play good opponents to move up in seeding.
Not all buy games are "bad" as you seem to imply. Alabama was a pretty good P5 home-and-home. Their RPI is 75. Winthrop and East Tennessee State have RPI's of 74 and 76.
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Old 02-22-2017, 03:55 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
Yes, it's the team's overall record. The entire emphasis is on whether or not you won or lost. It's also on all the team sheets. Wichita State is doing quite well in that one.
IMO, with all due respect, you are dodging my question.

Give me your top 5 rating/ranking/computer systems.

If you were a one-man committee that got to pick the at-large teams, what system would you rely on?

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Old 02-22-2017, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
Which ones?? They're 40th in the RPI (which again isn't a ranking), 43rd in the KPI, and 32nd in the SOR. What other merit based rankings are there?? There is the JNG, which has them at 45th, but although that ranking is pretty accurate when it comes to matching what the committee does it's not a major one I don't know if that's even relevant.

Dayton is ahead of Wichita in all of the merit based rankings, so whatever it is Wichita is doing, Dayton shouldn't do it. It's the predictive rankings (Sagarin, Kenpom, BPI) that are ranking them in the top twenty, and in some cases the top fifteen.
I mean, take your pick. There are dozens here, and they are ahead of us in almost all of them.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
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Old 02-22-2017, 04:44 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post

The development of 18 and 20 game league schedules has been a very bad thing for non-p5 schools IMO.

The rich are going to get richer, and the poor are going to get poorer.
This is the scariest part of it if you ask me. The P5/BE are trying to separate themselves from everybody else and by going to larger in-league schedules they will effectively limit at large's to only P5/BE teams and mid majors will only get in if they win their league tourney. This is another reason we need to get in the BE if we can (I know that's another thread but its applicable here too).
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Old 02-22-2017, 05:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
IMO, with all due respect, you are dodging my question.

Give me your top 5 rating/ranking/computer systems.

If you were a one-man committee that got to pick the at-large teams, what system would you rely on?
With all due respect, I was just kidding.

I only really look at two, and that's the RPI and the KenPom, but I don't really rely on either one of them beyond being a general indicator. That's kind of my whole point. If you're opinion of a team is completely formed around what a computer ranking says about them, and you don't even understand the math and variables that go into calculating it, then you really don't know anything about that team.
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Old 02-22-2017, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
I mean, take your pick. There are dozens here, and they are ahead of us in almost all of them.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
Okay, for starters understand that if you wrote down 100 teams on a list, posted it to a blog, and emailed the link to Kenneth Massey, he'd include it in his database. Most of those are people who independently do them because they like doing them, and aren't really known or relied on outside of that. So, if you're worried about the committee being influenced by these, I'm fairly certain they won't be. They don't even know 90 percent of them exist.

Also realize that Kenneth Massey's own personal ratings are predictive based and not merit based.

Now, I didn't open all of them, but I didn't open a single merit based ranking that ranked Wichita State in the 20s, or even the low to mid 30s. I was actually able to tell what kind of ranking it was before I opened it by simply looking at where they ranked Wichita State.

Now, I'm sure there may be a merit based ranking out there somewhere, and probably on that site, that ranks Wichita State high, but if there is then it's an outlier. The predictive rankings typically love them, and the merit rankings do not.

And I don't really see what about that is so hard to agree with. It's been that way for years and years. The merit rankings don't like the midmajors nearly as much as the predictive rankings do. If the committee were to decide to go exclusively off the merit rankings, then they'd be slighting the mid majors even more. That's true every year.
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Old 02-22-2017, 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
With all due respect, I was just kidding.

I only really look at two, and that's the RPI and the KenPom, but I don't really rely on either one of them beyond being a general indicator. That's kind of my whole point. If you're opinion of a team is completely formed around what a computer ranking says about them, and you don't even understand the math and variables that go into calculating it, then you really don't know anything about that team.
Come on man, that's another dodge!

This is a straight-forward question:

Pretend that you are a one-man committee, what do you rely on to pick the teams? Be specific.

I guess from your previous post then, that you are going to average the rpi and kenpom. That is an acceptable answer. Is that your answer?





I do not like a subjective, crooked, human committee picking the teams.

I would be fine with a computer average picking the teams. I do not care to know about and understand every team, the computers do a good enough job of that IMO.

I would research what goes into each computer formula before deciding, the variables, the math, etc., so that I understand what the computers are measuring, but the objective would be to let the computers make the decision.

Last edited by ud2; 02-22-2017 at 05:33 PM..
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Old 02-22-2017, 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
With all due respect, I was just kidding.

I only really look at two, and that's the RPI and the KenPom, but I don't really rely on either one of them beyond being a general indicator. That's kind of my whole point. If you're opinion of a team is completely formed around what a computer ranking says about them, and you don't even understand the math and variables that go into calculating it, then you really don't know anything about that team.
FWIW, I LOVE the "With all due respect" line, in most any forum. Pretty much gives me the right to say whatever I what.

But I said with all due respect?
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ud2 (02-22-2017)
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Old 02-22-2017, 06:03 PM
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ud2, you've now asked THREE different questions, and I've answereda ll of them.

First you asked this....

Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I bet this type of ranking system already exists, the committee knows that, they just do not want to use it.

Xubrew? Anyone?
The answer is no. At least not that I know of. So, I gave an answer that was a joke in that a team's win/loss record is a ranking that puts an emphasis on winning.

Then you said I was dodging your question, and then asked a different question. I thought that maybe you didn't pick up on the sarcasm, or that you didn't word the question right, or both. Nevertheless, this is not the same question.

Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
IMO, with all due respect, you are dodging my question.

Give me your top 5 rating/ranking/computer systems.

If you were a one-man committee that got to pick the at-large teams, what system would you rely on?
I'll answer more pointedly this time. There are not five different computer rankings that I closely look at. The two or three I do look at I don't rely on beyond being a general indicator. I don't have a top five. A person who has only read three Stephen King books can't answer the question "What are your five favorite Stephen King books.

Now you're asking ANOTHER question that's different from the previous two.

Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Come on man, that's another dodge!

This is a straight-forward question:

Pretend that you are a one-man committee, what do you rely on to pick the teams? Be specific.

I guess from your previous post then, that you are going to average the rpi and kenpom. That is an acceptable answer. Is that your answer?





I do not like a subjective, crooked, human committee picking the teams.

I would be fine with a computer average picking the teams. I do not care to know about and understand every team, the computers do a good enough job of that IMO.

I would research what goes into each computer formula before deciding, the variables, the math, etc., so that I understand what the computers are measuring, but the objective would be to let the computers make the decision.
I already answered this. I assess how hard I feel it was for a team to win the games that they won. I further explained why I feel both the predictive and the merit based rankings miss this, and pointed out that it is hard to quantify, but if that if there was a ranking that did this then that would be the one that I'd like. Scroll up. It's there.

Are you going to ask a fourth question that you have not previously asked and say that I'm dodging that one as well??
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Old 02-22-2017, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Come on man, that's another dodge!

This is a straight-forward question:

Pretend that you are a one-man committee, what do you rely on to pick the teams? Be specific.

I guess from your previous post then, that you are going to average the rpi and kenpom. That is an acceptable answer. Is that your answer?





I do not like a subjective, crooked, human committee picking the teams.

I would be fine with a computer average picking the teams. I do not care to know about and understand every team, the computers do a good enough job of that IMO.

I would research what goes into each computer formula before deciding, the variables, the math, etc., so that I understand what the computers are measuring, but the objective would be to let the computers make the decision.
This is the whole issue, you can't "average" RPI and Kenpom because they measure two entirely different things. RPI is merit based and Kenpom is predictive. For instance, let's say team A goes 18-0 and every win is by 1 point. Team B goes 17-1 against the same competition and wins their games by an average of 20 points. Merit based says team A is better because they won all their games. A predictive analysis like Kenpom however would rank team B much higher because of the margin of victory. So, do you pick team A for the tourney or team B?
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Old 02-22-2017, 11:40 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Adding Vanderbilt, Tennessee, USC, and Arkansas.
Yeah, some sos/top 50 record/bad losses weaknesses, but they are all p5, so they can get away with that. Vanderbilt has 13 losses, no at-large team has ever had more than 14 losses.
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Old 02-22-2017, 11:51 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
This is the whole issue, you can't "average" RPI and Kenpom because they measure two entirely different things. RPI is merit based and Kenpom is predictive. For instance, let's say team A goes 18-0 and every win is by 1 point. Team B goes 17-1 against the same competition and wins their games by an average of 20 points. Merit based says team A is better because they won all their games. A predictive analysis like Kenpom however would rank team B much higher because of the margin of victory. So, do you pick team A for the tourney or team B?
I don't see why you can't average the two. The committee could just take the rpi rating and take the Kenpom rating and average them if they wanted to just use a composite rating system to rank the teams. That would satisfy both the merit-based crowd and the predictive crowd. I think such a simple composite rating system would be a lot better than what the committee does now.

UD would be rated 31...Rpi 27...Kenpom 34.

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Old 02-23-2017, 12:32 AM
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here's a different perspective ......

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaa...eds/ar-AAn8YH1
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  #350  
Old 02-23-2017, 07:11 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I don't see why you can't average the two. The committee could just take the rpi rating and take the Kenpom rating and average them if they wanted to just use a composite rating system to rank the teams. That would satisfy both the merit-based crowd and the predictive crowd. I think such a simple composite rating system would be a lot better than what the committee does now.

UD would be rated 31...Rpi 27...Kenpom 34.
They rank their teams based on two completely different mathmatical concepts not just math formulas that use different weights. Kenpom is predictive while RPI is merit based. Merit means it measures you by your past results while predictive is designed to rank you based on how you will do in upcoming games. It is like trying to average out distances that were given you in both the metric system and our measuring system to find out how far something is. Would you get a better idea on how far away something before? No.
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Old 02-23-2017, 07:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Dillomernda View Post
They rank their teams based on two completely different mathmatical concepts not just math formulas that use different weights. Kenpom is predictive while RPI is merit based. Merit means it measures you by your past results while predictive is designed to rank you based on how you will do in upcoming games. It is like trying to average out distances that were given you in both the metric system and our measuring system to find out how far something is. Would you get a better idea on how far away something before? No.

This analogy doesn't work. The output of both models is a single number. You can easily average the two together. The only thing averaging them together is giving weight to what you have actually done, but also what your team is predicted to do.

Take wichita st. they have no good victories, but the predictive models love them. This way they are punished for really just beating up on crappy teams, but not completely punished as if you were only using a merit based system.

Its a happy medium.
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Old 02-23-2017, 07:25 AM
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Originally Posted by czwalga View Post
This analogy doesn't work. The output of both models is a single number. You can easily average the two together. The only thing averaging them together is giving weight to what you have actually done, but also what your team is predicted to do.

Take wichita st. they have no good victories, but the predictive models love them. This way they are punished for really just beating up on crappy teams, but not completely punished as if you were only using a merit based system.

Its a happy medium.
Technically you can "average" the two numbers but it would do you no good. Please read the articles linked above for a detailed explanation. In short, since they measure two completely different metrics the average wouldn't do any good and would simply further confuse the issue. Now if you wish to average two predictive models, like kenpom and KPI, you could probably get a decent measure.
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Old 02-23-2017, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Technically you can "average" the two numbers but it would do you no good. Please read the articles linked above for a detailed explanation. In short, since they measure two completely different metrics the average wouldn't do any good and would simply further confuse the issue. Now if you wish to average two predictive models, like kenpom and KPI, you could probably get a decent measure.

I did, I still don't understand why you can't average them.

Lets go over the example for Wichita St.
RPI: 41
KenPom: 12
Average: 26.5

What that is telling you is, the predictive rankings think they are really good, but they've done nothing to prove it.

Averaging them together gives weight to both. Should they get a 3 seed? If we go off Kenpom? Should they potentially be in the play-in game going of RPI? I'd argue the truth is somewhere in the middle.
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Old 02-23-2017, 08:59 AM
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The average is worthless because the number you get tells you nothing. Kenpom is predictive and doesn't measure merit. You're averaging a forward looking metric with a backward looking metric. You'd be better off averaging two forward looking metrics or two backward looking metrics.
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Old 02-23-2017, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
The average is worthless because the number you get tells you nothing. Kenpom is predictive and doesn't measure merit. You're averaging a forward looking metric with a backward looking metric. You'd be better off averaging two forward looking metrics or two backward looking metrics.
What it tells me is that there's two completely seperate ways of looking at the situation. This the combination of both.

There's no right answer predictive or merit. I realize what you're trying to say, but I'm looking at it from a standpoint of both systems have their advantages and disadvantages. I don't think you can only consider predictive models or only considering merit based models.

Why would we be better off? Most forward looking metrics should be relatively similar, without giving ANY weight at all to what the team has actually accomplished. Why would you not want to consider both forward and backwards looking metrics. The only way you can really do that is with a raw output number, then averaging them together (or you could put more weight on merit or forward if you'd like).

The real point i'm trying to make is both metrics are useful and should be used to come up with a final number.

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Old 02-23-2017, 09:58 AM
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Getting way too deep here but I am diving in. I don't know enough about predictive models. Can they rank a group of teams or are they only good for comparing 2 teams head to head? Has anyone every gone back over the results of the NCAA tournament and reviewed how good the predictive models were at predicting? The problem I have with the idea of predictive models is that most results are in a separate bubble - conference games. How good are the models when games are across conference lines?
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Old 02-23-2017, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by czwalga View Post
What it tells me is that there's two completely seperate ways of looking at the situation. This the combination of both.

There's no right answer predictive or merit. I realize what you're trying to say, but I'm looking at it from a standpoint of both systems have their advantages and disadvantages. I don't think you can only consider predictive models or only considering merit based models.

Why would we be better off? Most forward looking metrics should be relatively similar, without giving ANY weight at all to what the team has actually accomplished. Why would you not want to consider both forward and backwards looking metrics. The only way you can really do that is with a raw output number, then averaging them together (or you could put more weight on merit or forward if you'd like).

The real point i'm trying to make is both metrics are useful and should be used to come up with a final number.
I agree that both metrics can be useful. It really depends on what you want to measure. Do you think a team's body of work is more important or what the predictive models say? The committee has consistently indicated that it is "body of work". If so, then an RPI type metric is more relevant. To me winning all your games by one point is better than winning 90% of your games by an average of 20 points. As an example in the tourney it doesn't matter whether you win a game by one or 20 points.
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Old 02-23-2017, 10:20 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Getting way too deep here but I am diving in. I don't know enough about predictive models. Can they rank a group of teams or are they only good for comparing 2 teams head to head? Has anyone every gone back over the results of the NCAA tournament and reviewed how good the predictive models were at predicting? The problem I have with the idea of predictive models is that most results are in a separate bubble - conference games. How good are the models when games are across conference lines?
Kenpom ranks teams. The problem I have with predictive models is they put too much emphasis on things like winning margin to the exclusion of wins and losses. Again, I'll take a 20-0 record with all wins by 1 point over a 18-2 record with all wins by 20 points. The predictive models, however, rate the 18-2 team higher.
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Old 02-23-2017, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
I agree that both metrics can be useful. It really depends on what you want to measure. Do you think a team's body of work is more important or what the predictive models say? The committee has consistently indicated that it is "body of work". If so, then an RPI type metric is more relevant. To me winning all your games by one point is better than winning 90% of your games by an average of 20 points. As an example in the tourney it doesn't matter whether you win a game by one or 20 points.
This is exactly what I've been trying to say for a while. The irony of all of the advanced metrics (merit and predictive), and how they take into account so many other things than winning, is that it is in direct contrast to the world's greatest one and done, survive and advance, tournament.
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Old 02-23-2017, 10:42 AM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
...merit based rankings...
And xubrew, you say that the merit-based rankings punish the non-p5 teams.* Rpi is a merit-based ranking.

Look at the pre-NCAAT rpi rankings from last year.

9 more non-p5 teams, listed below, would have been in the NCAAT if the committee only looked at rpi to pick the at-large teams.

There were at least 9 p5/BE teams, that got at-large bids, with a worse rpi rating than the below-listed non-p5 teams.

Please explain this discrepancy. Am I missing something very basic?

Vanderbilt was the worst rpi rated p5/BE at-large team in the field last year.

2016 pre-NCAAT rpi rankings:


30 * St. Bonaventure 22-8 0.5927 81 0.5415 * Atl10 13-5
34 * Akron 25-8 0.5882 122 0.5152 * Midam 15-6
38 * St. Mary's 26-5 0.5873 148 0.5031 * Wcc 17-4
39 * Princeton 21-6 0.5862 146 0.5043 * Ivy 12-2
41 * S. Diego St. 23-9 0.5861 61 0.5502 * Mwest 18-3
49 * Valparaiso 24-6 0.5799 161 0.4954 * Horiz 16-3
52 * Monmouth 27-7 0.5777 166 0.4938 * Maac 19-4
54 * Hofstra 23-9 0.5772 108 0.5250 * Coln 16-5
60 * Temple 21-11 0.5713 74 0.5461 * Aac 15-5




62 * Vanderbilt




*http://realtimerpi.com/2015-2016/col..._rpi_Full.html

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Old 02-23-2017, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
And xubrew, you say that the merit-based rankings punish the non-p5 teams.* Rpi is a merit-based ranking.

Look at the pre-NCAAT rpi rankings from last year.

9 more non-p5 teams, listed below, would have been in the NCAAT if the committee only looked at rpi to pick the at-large teams.

There were at least 9 p5/BE teams, that got at-large bids, with a worse rpi rating than the below-listed non-p5 teams.

Please explain this discrepancy. Am I missing something very basic?

Vanderbilt was the worst rpi rated p5/BE at-large team in the field last year.

2016 pre-NCAAT rpi rankings:


30 * St. Bonaventure 22-8 0.5927 81 0.5415 * Atl10 13-5
34 * Akron 25-8 0.5882 122 0.5152 * Midam 15-6
38 * St. Mary's 26-5 0.5873 148 0.5031 * Wcc 17-4
39 * Princeton 21-6 0.5862 146 0.5043 * Ivy 12-2
41 * S. Diego St. 23-9 0.5861 61 0.5502 * Mwest 18-3
49 * Valparaiso 24-6 0.5799 161 0.4954 * Horiz 16-3
52 * Monmouth 27-7 0.5777 166 0.4938 * Maac 19-4
54 * Hofstra 23-9 0.5772 108 0.5250 * Coln 16-5
60 * Temple 21-11 0.5713 74 0.5461 * Aac 15-5



62 * Vanderbilt




*http://realtimerpi.com/2015-2016/col..._rpi_Full.html

I'm not sure if you're asking about different types of rankings or why the selection committee took the teams that they did. Or both.

For starters, the RPI is a rating, not a ranking. A rating is general. A ranking is precise.

Secondly, in terms of just the RPI, Saint Bonaventure and Temple came from conferences that won roughly 65% of their OOC games. The RPI is going to favor teams that play in leagues that win that many OOC games. If it's the terminology that's bothering you, I'll rephrase. Merit rankings favor teams that play in conferences that win 2/3rds or more of their OOC games. This is especially true if the conference plays a double round robin. Since this typically always the power conferences, I say that it favors the power conferences. Saint Bonaventure's OOC RPI was 81. Temple's was 71. Had they not played in leagues that won 2/3rds of their OOC games, then their RPIs would not have been as high.

On the flip side, Saint Mary's OOC RPI was 19. Their conference drug them down. The RPI does this. So do all of the merit based rankings, and to an even higher degree. Saint Mary's final KenPom ranking was actually better than their overall RPI.

Valpo was also higher in the predictive rankings than they were in the RPI. Valpo's OOC RPI was 15th. Being in the conference they were in hurt their RPI. Had they been in the A10, their RPI would have probably been a lot better.

You're always going to be able to find outliers. You mentioned nine. I'm saying that in general, the predictive rankings favor the non power teams (or teams in conferences that don't win 2/3rds of their games), and they do. That doesn't apply to ALL cases, but it applies to the vast majority of them. It even applies to about half of the nine teams you mentioned, even though the RPI isn't a ranking. I'm honestly having a very hard time believing that you, who follows the RPI the way that you do, are trying to argue that the Power conferences do not have a built in advantage.

As far as why those nine weren't taken by the committee, I definitely think some of them, and two of them in particular (Hofstra and Saint Bonaventure) should have been. You can say the committee made bad choices and I'd agree, but South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia Tech also had better RPIs than some of the teams that were selected, including Tulsa who is not from a P5 conference and had no representation on the committee.

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Old 02-23-2017, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
I'm not sure if you're asking about different types of rankings or why the selection committee took the teams that they did. Or both.

For starters, the RPI is a rating, not a ranking. A rating is general. A ranking is precise.

Secondly, in terms of just the RPI, Saint Bonaventure and Temple came from conferences that won roughly 65% of their OOC games. The RPI is going to favor teams that play in leagues that win that many OOC games. If it's the terminology that's bothering you, I'll rephrase. Merit rankings favor teams that play in conferences that win 2/3rds or more of their OOC games. This is especially true if the conference plays a double round robin. Since this typically always the power conferences, I say that it favors the power conferences. Saint Bonaventure's OOC RPI was 81. Temple's was 71. Had they not played in leagues that won 2/3rds of their OOC games, then their RPIs would not have been as high.

On the flip side, Saint Mary's OOC RPI was 19. Their conference drug them down. The RPI does this. So do all of the merit based rankings, and to an even higher degree. Saint Mary's final KenPom ranking was actually better than their overall RPI.

Valpo was also higher in the predictive rankings than they were in the RPI. Valpo's OOC RPI was 15th. Being in the conference they were in hurt their RPI. Had they been in the A10, their RPI would have probably been a lot better.

You're always going to be able to find outliers. You mentioned nine. I'm saying that in general, the predictive rankings favor the non power teams (or teams in conferences that don't win 2/3rds of their games), and they do. That doesn't apply to ALL cases, but it applies to the vast majority of them. It even applies to about half of the nine teams you mentioned, even though the RPI isn't a ranking. I'm honestly having a very hard time believing that you, who follows the RPI the way that you do, are trying to argue that the Power conferences do not have a built in advantage.

As far as why those nine weren't taken by the committee, I definitely think some of them, and two of them in particular (Hofstra and Saint Bonaventure) should have been. You can say the committee made bad choices and I'd agree, but South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia Tech also had better RPIs than some of the teams that were selected, including Tulsa who is not from a P5 conference and had no representation on the committee.
All I am saying is that you said that merit-based systems punish the non-p5 teams, that appears to be false, at least in terms of if rpi is a representative example of a merit-based system, as applied to just using rpi vs. whatever the committee uses now.

Nobody knows what the committee currently uses, they just make up the rules on the fly.

Can you show me one example of a merit-based system that punishes non-p5 teams?

And this is not just a one-time thing. I can go back over the rpi over the last 10 or 15 years, or however long this stuff is archived on the Internet, and give you annual examples of what I posted above.

I would guess that if the committee just used rpi to pick the at-large teams, then on average, 10 more non-p5 teams would get a bid every single year.

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Old 02-23-2017, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
All I am saying is that you said that merit-based systems punish the non-p5 teams, that appears to be false, at least in terms of if rpi is a representative example of a merit-based system, as applied to just using rpi vs. whatever the committee uses now.

Nobody knows what the committee currently uses, they just make up the rules on the fly.

Can you show me one example of a merit-based system that punishes non-p5 teams?

And this is not just a one-time thing. I can go back over the rpi over the last 10 or 15 years, or however long this stuff is archived on the Internet, and give you annual examples of what I posted above.

I would guess that if the committee just used rpi to pick the at-large teams, then on average, 10 more non-p5 teams would get a bid every single year.
I've been doing that for the entire thread!! Wichita State has been brought up several times by several different people.

Does anyone else who's been following this thread and knows even just a little bit about how the RPI, the KPI, and other merit based rankings are calculated actually believe that they do not give an advantage to the power five conferences, or more specifically conferences that collectively win 2/3rds of their OOC games??

Is it fair to say that as they go through conference play, their rankings go up, whereas teams from outside those leagues have their rankings drop??

I mean, when you see that something like 45 out of 50 teams are all from conferences that won 2/3rds of their OOC games, isn't that some sort of a clue that they have an advantage?

Is anybody else really not getting that, or not agreeing with that, or not understanding that??

I feel like I'm trying to explain how salad is healthier than junk food, which seems like a simple, obvious, and widely accepted belief, but yet it's just not getting through
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Old 02-23-2017, 02:36 PM
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I'll try to help. Yes, merit based rankings give an advantage to P5 teams simply because P5 teams generally play more games against other highly rated merit based teams. Wichita St is a good example of how predictive actually gives them more of an "advantage" than merit based. I look at it this way, predictive based rankings try to "even out" the built in inequity of some of the merit based systems. Having said that, I am a firm believer in the old adage that you either win or lose a game. Doesn't matter by how much. In Wichita St's case, they should have done a much better job in the non con, both in scheduling and winning games. UD was able to make it work in a down year for the A10.
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Old 02-23-2017, 02:38 PM
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UD up to #24 in the RPI, ahead of VCU #26.
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Old 02-23-2017, 02:54 PM
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Case in point on stupid, inaccurate Dayton bias from Jerry Palm:

This is a quote from Palms Bubble Watch on Dayton: "The Flyers are tied with the Rams atop the A-10, which is down this year. Dayton has yet to be a team that is likely to make the tournament, and is unlikely to even get that chance. That means that the Flyers cannot afford a big mistake."

And yet, his number two team on the "In for now" list is VCU, who we play in six days. Does he even read the **** schedule (see Bedell on how to pronounce this word).

For comparison, here is quote from Palms Rhode Island profile on same bubble watch under "teams with work to do": "URI has just three top 100 wins, although that includes a win over Cincinnati. Of bigger concern is the poor play since the loss to Dayton. The Rams looked good against La Salle though, so that is good as they head in to their big game against VCU."

If Rhody plays VCU, its a "Big Game"; but if the Dayton Flyers play VCU, he says UD is unlikely to even get a chance to play a team likely to make the field. But VCU is his own number 2 team under "In now for now"

And, note that when Rhody beats LaSalle, that's allegedly a significant thing.

That man is a crack case, and definitely biased toward the Dayton Flyers...no questions asked. I never thought anyone could hate on UD more than Joe Brackets himself; but I think we have winner...see mr. Palm.

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Old 02-23-2017, 03:29 PM
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My honest guess, is that Palm doesn't write many of those himself, likely written by interns and lower level people that work for the website, which is why they always feel disjointed from his bracket write up and bubble watch writeup (the part prior to where they discuss the "in for now" "on the bubble" and "work to do" No proof, but its always felt that way to me.

As far as Lunardi goes, UD fans certainly are not alone in thinking that Joey Brackets "hates" UD, read enough message boards this time of season and you see it everywhere. Joe Lunardi doesn't hate UD. His sister and brother in law went to school at UD, still live in the area, still attend UD games. Joe is a regular speaking at the Dayton Agonis club when St Joe's is in town.

Neither Lurnardi nor Palm are anything spectacular when it comes to bracket forecast, they are just 2 of the most visible as well as 2 of the earliest "bracketologist" dating back to Lunardi's days with "the Blue ribbon Panel" or whatever that pub was called and Palm's days with the BCS formula side of NCAA football. There really isn't anything all that difficult about getting a bracket as close to right as they do, which is why you see a million brackets listed everywhere. If you don't agree, go to SI or Hoopshd or The sportingnews or dancecard or pick a site.
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Old 02-23-2017, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
I've been doing that for the entire thread!! Wichita State has been brought up several times by several different people.
Agree that we are talking past each other...will try again...

I agree with your premise that merit-based systems prescribe advantages to certain conferences and teams, particularly the p5.

But, what I am trying to point out is that when you tie a merit-based system to an actual selection process, more non-p5 teams end up getting selected vs. the number that is currently selected.

Teams from the Ivy League, the Colonial, the Horizon League, the MAC, the MAAC, WCC, and Mountain West, that do not possess those advantages, under a merit-based system, that you discussed, are now getting bids.

If a predictive system were used, maybe even more non-p5 teams would get selected, I don't know, you would have to look at archived kenpom, or some other predictive site, to see if that was true.

Are we in agreement?


The problem is that the committee has corrupted the selection process the closer and closer you get to the bubble. If they just stuck to rpi, or some other merit-based system, then a merit-based system would deliver more non-p5 bids vs. the current selection process.

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Old 02-23-2017, 03:34 PM
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One of my issues with the bracketologists is their own inconsistencies. We dropped from an 8 to a 10 because URI dropped out of the top 50. Yet since then URI has reappeared in the top 50 as well as Vandy climbing into the top 50 so and we have only been moved back up to a 9 even though we actually have more top 50 wins now then when we were an 8. Now I know other teams may have done things in that same time but I doubt by that much difference that we shouldn't have climbed back to an 8 in their brackets.
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Old 02-23-2017, 03:38 PM
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It has nothing to do with me not agreeing...totally a non issue in this instance.

Yes, I already knew about Lunardi's Dayton connection. My post wasn't really aimed at him, just to say that the CBS site seems to be more degrading toward UD and the other typical block heads who are notorious over nothing. You said it yourself, they aren't exactly overly great at it; and yet we are all asked to play along as if they are.

Truth is not a moving target; Dayton really does host VCU next Wednesday. The stuff has Palm's name on it, so he can own my accurate criticism. Palm is working for the right organization, just in the right/wrong department.
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Old 02-23-2017, 03:45 PM
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The committee isn't using a merit based system to select teams, they are using a merit based system to guide the process and help sort out some of the "noise". They are not simply taking the rpi and saying "here's the bracket". If you read any of the write ups about how the process works from the 4 or 5 years that they had the media do the mock selection show (ChrisR was one of them if you don't recall and has a write up somewhere on here) they'll set their s-curve, then "scrub" each team vs the team above and below it several times. They'll move teams up that they deem "more worthy" and move teams down that they deem "paper tigers". From what I gather, its a very detailed and lengthy process. They'll look at injuries, who missed games when, suspensions, etc...

Going to a completely computerized system would be a mistake. As soon as that happened, conferences and teams would spend a lot of money trying to figure out how to "game" the system. The schools with the most money have always had the biggest advantage, will always have the biggest advantage. Odds are if you a selection committee person interested enough in basketball to serve thru the process you've likely seen lots of games involving P5 schools, not so much with the middle tennessee states of the world. You can finish up dinner on a wednesday, flip on the TV and stumble across Duke on TV, you are not going to find a Delaware game too often by happenstance. you flip on ESPN in the morning and you'll catch highlights of the top 25, you won't see a ton of Bona game highlights.

I think what you are looking for doesn't exist, and never will exist. It will never be "fair" it never was.
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Old 02-23-2017, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
It has nothing to do with me not agreeing...totally a non issue in this instance.

Yes, I already knew about Lunardi's Dayton connection. My post wasn't really aimed at him, just to say that the CBS site seems to be more degrading toward UD and the other typical block heads who are notorious over nothing. You said it yourself, they aren't exactly overly great at it; and yet we are all asked to play along as if they are.

Truth is not a moving target; Dayton really does host VCU next Wednesday. The stuff has Palm's name on it, so he can own my accurate criticism. Palm is working for the right organization, just in the right/wrong department.
I agree that the stuff has his name on it, there for he "owns" it. Would be interesting to hear him answer your question, but in truth, these are all done to generate clicks. None of it really matters. The committee doesn't get together to put the bracket together for another 2 weeks, by that point, UD will have all but the A10 tournament behind them, a vast majority of the 350ish teams season will be complete, the final RPI will be mostly set. I don't even know if they adjust it as they go thru their process, for instance how would they handle a like Rhody right on the edge. Say they are a top 50 rpi team when they cast their first ballot on thursday or wednesday evening, but fall out of it by saturday afternoon when the field is mostly set? My guess is that is where the "scrubbing" process comes in. Top 50/100 gets you in the conversation, the scrubbing tells the rest of the story in comparison to other schools in your same neighborhood. As your neighborhood improves/declines thru the process you get further scrubbed against your new neighborhood.

I would love to see a John Feinstein book come out on the whole process where he's allowed to go behind the scenes and fully in depth like he's done with many other books.
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Old 02-23-2017, 05:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Case in point on stupid, inaccurate Dayton bias from Jerry Palm:

This is a quote from Palms Bubble Watch on Dayton: "The Flyers are tied with the Rams atop the A-10, which is down this year. Dayton has yet to be a team that is likely to make the tournament, and is unlikely to even get that chance. That means that the Flyers cannot afford a big mistake."

And yet, his number two team on the "In for now" list is VCU, who we play in six days. Does he even read the **** schedule (see Bedell on how to pronounce this word).

For comparison, here is quote from Palms Rhode Island profile on same bubble watch under "teams with work to do": "URI has just three top 100 wins, although that includes a win over Cincinnati. Of bigger concern is the poor play since the loss to Dayton. The Rams looked good against La Salle though, so that is good as they head in to their big game against VCU."

If Rhody plays VCU, its a "Big Game"; but if the Dayton Flyers play VCU, he says UD is unlikely to even get a chance to play a team likely to make the field. But VCU is his own number 2 team under "In now for now"

And, note that when Rhody beats LaSalle, that's allegedly a significant thing.

That man is a crack case, and definitely biased toward the Dayton Flyers...no questions asked. I never thought anyone could hate on UD more than Joe Brackets himself; but I think we have winner...see mr. Palm.
I think there is a tendency talk about what could knock a team out if they are currently in, and what could get a team in if they're currently out. If you read through it, he made it a point to talk about something that was wrong with all the teams that he had "in for now."

VCU has a bad loss to Fordham and needs to avoid more bad losses, Cal has just four top 100 wins and a questionable loss to San Diego State, Seton Hall needs to finish the job against teams they are favored to beat.

I don't think he hates all those teams. I think he's just pointing out what could force them to fall out of the field.

As for not mentioning the upcoming game against VCU, yeah, he probably just missed it. He's looking at about eighty teams who are all playing two games a week and he occasionally misses something.

But, really, so what?? Aside from being interesting to look at, neither what he does or what Joe Lunardi does really means anything.
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Old 02-23-2017, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
My honest guess, is that Palm doesn't write many of those himself, likely written by interns and lower level people that work for the website, which is why they always feel disjointed from his bracket write up and bubble watch writeup (the part prior to where they discuss the "in for now" "on the bubble" and "work to do" No proof, but its always felt that way to me.

As far as Lunardi goes, UD fans certainly are not alone in thinking that Joey Brackets "hates" UD, read enough message boards this time of season and you see it everywhere. Joe Lunardi doesn't hate UD. His sister and brother in law went to school at UD, still live in the area, still attend UD games. Joe is a regular speaking at the Dayton Agonis club when St Joe's is in town.

Neither Lurnardi nor Palm are anything spectacular when it comes to bracket forecast, they are just 2 of the most visible as well as 2 of the earliest "bracketologist" dating back to Lunardi's days with "the Blue ribbon Panel" or whatever that pub was called and Palm's days with the BCS formula side of NCAA football. There really isn't anything all that difficult about getting a bracket as close to right as they do, which is why you see a million brackets listed everywhere. If you don't agree, go to SI or Hoopshd or The sportingnews or dancecard or pick a site.
I stand corrected on those blurbs. Caught him on the radio and he used pretty much the verbage so it's his thoughts. He seems to be talking out both sides of his mouth. Constancy would be nice
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Old 02-25-2017, 11:51 AM
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Down to 27 on dance card after last night.
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Old 02-25-2017, 12:37 PM
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So......

Feeling really good now. Still need the VCU game i think. If we get VCU, beat GW and lose 1st game in Pitt, we are probably ok. If we beat VCU,lose GW, win one in Pitt, we are probably ok. In the end we are closing in on lock and winning Wednesday virtually guarantees us a bid. If we win out and win the A-10 Tournament we will be @6. Possibly a 5. 5 isnt a bad spot, 12,4,1 if chalk holds or as a 6, 11,3,2 if chalk holds.

We shall see, either way, start shining those dancin' shoes
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Old 02-25-2017, 12:44 PM
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A 6 seed is the optimal spot to make a run in my opinion. I agree that if they win out, they are looking at a 6 seed. I'm not sure a 5th seed is obtainable.
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Old 02-25-2017, 12:48 PM
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The rpiforecast probabilities have changed significantly vs. earlier in the year...even if the lose these final 2, IMO, they are in at this point.

I doubt that an 0-1 performance in the A10T would drop them out of the NCAAT at 22-8.

22-7 only drops them to rpi #29, that is good enough...sos is good enough...top 50 record is good enough...only real black spot would 2 bad losses if they lose to GW.

Last edited by ud2; 02-25-2017 at 12:51 PM..
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Old 02-25-2017, 01:06 PM
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On College Game Day today they were talking about Northwestern and Jay Bilas said he thinks "they are locked in because of their top 50 and top 25 wins including a win over Dayton who has a spot in the tournament locked up".
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  #380  
Old 02-25-2017, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
22-7 only drops them to rpi #29, that is good enough...sos is good enough...top 50 record is good enough...only real black spot would 2 bad losses if they lose to GW.
I'm still nervous (but last night helped a lot). Don't forget we could end up with no Top 50 wins if we lose to VCU and Vanderbilt and Rhode Island drop out. I don't trust the committee at all after what they did to us two years ago. A win over VCU should make us a lock.
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  #381  
Old 02-25-2017, 01:22 PM
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Wisconsin is 2-4 against top 50 with an RPI of 26 and they are a "lock".
We have to be pretty close. But I am certainly not comfortable yet.
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Old 02-25-2017, 02:02 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
The rpiforecast probabilities have changed significantly vs. earlier in the year...even if the lose these final 2, IMO, they are in at this point.

I doubt that an 0-1 performance in the A10T would drop them out of the NCAAT at 22-8.

22-7 only drops them to rpi #29, that is good enough...sos is good enough...top 50 record is good enough...only real black spot would 2 bad losses if they lose to GW.
Where are you getting these numbers from?? 22-7? 22-8?? UD already has 23 wins.......
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Old 02-25-2017, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by RamodWaleskowski View Post
Where are you getting these numbers from?? 22-7? 22-8?? UD already has 23 wins.......
One win was against a Non-D-I team. Doesn't count for RPI. Committee probably doesn't count it either.
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  #384  
Old 02-25-2017, 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Down to 27 on dance card after last night.
Would like to be in the 23-25 range 2 weeks from now. At that point, the likelihood of an 8 seed is much lower.
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Old 02-25-2017, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Gilchrist's Autograph 2 View Post
Wisconsin is 2-4 against top 50 with an RPI of 26 and they are a "lock".
We have to be pretty close. But I am certainly not comfortable yet.
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If we were in a Power Conference with our resume we would be a lock.
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  #386  
Old 02-25-2017, 02:32 PM
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kpisports.net has been the most accurate in terms of its rankings equating to seeding. See blog about accuracy last two years in seeding. http://www.kpisports.net/2016/03/15/...-2016-edition/

Dayton ranked #28 in KPI now or the last 7 seed (I think this is high).

http://www.kpisports.net/d-i_mbb/201...-kpi-rankings/

BTW, Wisconsin ranked #26 in KPI, 2 spots ahead of Dayton.
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Old 02-25-2017, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
If we were in a Power Conference with our resume we would be a lock.
I agree that we would be a lock if we were in a P5 conference. But if we were in a P5 conference, we wouldn't have this resume (it would include a bunch more games and wins vs the Top 50.
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Old 02-25-2017, 04:58 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
I agree that we would be a lock if we were in a P5 conference. But if we were in a P5 conference, we wouldn't have this resume (it would include a bunch more games and wins vs the Top 50.
And probably losses too.
I think we're in a great position now.
Let's keep winning!
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Old 02-25-2017, 04:58 PM
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Mig big question for the NCAA Tournament is will Creighton win 2 games in a row in the NCAA for the first time ever?
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Old 02-25-2017, 05:24 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Mig big question for the NCAA Tournament is will Creighton win 2 games in a row in the NCAA for the first time ever?
No...
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Old 02-25-2017, 05:34 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
No...
It is pretty amazing that they never have won 2 in a row. All depends on the draw though. Could get lucky like Syracuse last year and play a #100 in Round of 32.
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Old 02-25-2017, 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
It is pretty amazing that they never have won 2 in a row. All depends on the draw though. Could get lucky like Syracuse last year and play a #100 in Round of 32.
As a head coach, McDermott is below .500 in the final ten games of the season throughout his career. After watching him go into a tailspin at Iowa State and Northern Iowa year after year after year, it's not all that surprising that Creighton hasn't the best team in March. They also lost a key player in late January, which to be fair has a lot to do with why they're struggling this year, but it's not a one time thing. It's a trend. It's a long trend. For both the coach and the program.
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  #393  
Old 02-25-2017, 06:46 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
One win was against a Non-D-I team. Doesn't count for RPI. Committee probably doesn't count it either.
Yeeeeeesh. I thought we had 23 wins not counting st.joes (IN) my mistake.
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Old 02-25-2017, 11:41 PM
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Chris R., do you know what the rpi would be now had we not played d2 Saint Joseph's of Indiana and scheduled another d1 opponent instead?

The udpride rpi has us at #23 now.

Last edited by ud2; 02-25-2017 at 11:48 PM..
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Old 02-25-2017, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Chris R., do you know what the rpi would be now had we not played d2 Saint Joseph's of Indiana and scheduled another d1 opponent instead?

The udpride rpi has us at #23 now.
No one can answer that question, it would depend on who the opponent was, where it was, and whether we won or lost. If we beat Kansas on the road it would have a huge impact Playing a D2 opponent has no impact on our RPI whatsoever.
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Old 02-26-2017, 01:47 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Chris R., do you know what the rpi would be now had we not played d2 Saint Joseph's of Indiana and scheduled another d1 opponent instead?

The udpride rpi has us at #23 now.
RPI would be much worse with the D1 opponents we could have scheduled instead. Brilliant move by Neil Sullivan.
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  #397  
Old 02-26-2017, 07:27 AM
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Originally Posted by ScottyExpress View Post
No one can answer that question, it would depend on who the opponent was, where it was, and whether we won or lost. If we beat Kansas on the road it would have a huge impact Playing a D2 opponent has no impact on our RPI whatsoever.
The reason we played a D2 opponent was because we couldn't schedule a decent D1 opponent for that game. Much better to schedule a D2 than a horrible D1 that would have only hurt the RPI.
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Old 02-26-2017, 07:34 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
The reason we played a D2 opponent was because we couldn't schedule a decent D1 opponent for that game. Much better to schedule a D2 than a horrible D1 that would have only hurt the RPI.
Personally I think it's ridiculous that any D1 school is allowed to play a D2 school (and lots of schools do it) when there are D1 schools begging better teams to play them. The NCAA shouldn't allow it.

On another note we are up to a 7 seed and no longer listed as on the bubble on the CBS Sports bracketology.
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Old 02-26-2017, 08:14 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
Personally I think it's ridiculous that any D1 school is allowed to play a D2 school (and lots of schools do it) when there are D1 schools begging better teams to play them. The NCAA shouldn't allow it.
It is more ridiculous that you can be 14-13 with 4 wins in P5 confernece and be considered on the bubble. I have no problem with UD playing the RPI game and scheduling a D2 school when this is what they are up against in trying to secure a bid.
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Old 02-26-2017, 08:33 AM
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I consulted my magic 8 ball this morning and this is where it said UD would be seeded as well as some other info -

6 seed - if UD wins out
7 seed - if UD only loses the A10 Championship game
8/9 seed - any other scenario

It said VCU was in regardless but could not predict a seed

Rhody is in if they win out

Zavier is in the NIT if they lose out
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