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  #401  
Old 02-26-2017, 09:24 AM
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It is very possible that ETSU will become another top-50 win for the Flyers. They are currently at 70 and will likely win out, one of those wins being a decent road win at UNC-Greensboro. If they can do that and win a couple games in the SOCON tournament they could definitely be in the top-50.
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  #402  
Old 02-26-2017, 10:40 AM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
Personally I think it's ridiculous that any D1 school is allowed to play a D2 school (and lots of schools do it) when there are D1 schools begging better teams to play them. The NCAA shouldn't allow it.

On another note we are up to a 7 seed and no longer listed as on the bubble on the CBS Sports bracketology.
Two way street. The "better" teams have to agree to play us. Im with the AD 100% on this. Id rather play a D2 team that doesn't count then a D1 Prairie View A&M
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  #403  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:01 AM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Someone in another thread posted we need 5 wins the rest of the way to be a lock. I agree. Anyone who thinks we're close to a lock needs to take a closer look. The advanced metrics seem to like us and we have a gaudy record. However, facts only get twisted for the Power 5/Big East. Right now we have one tenuous Top 50 win. Depending on Rhode Island performance and a VCU win we could have 4. We need Vandy and Rhody to finish strong. We do not have a huge win away from UD Arena to hang our cap on.

So, i can tell you right now, we are out if we lose the VCU game and dont win the A-10 Tournament. Win GMU,VCU,@George Washington and lose @Davidson and win 2 in Pittsburgh we are in. Im probably jaded from 2 years ago, in fact i know i am. It would be a **** shame if these Seniors had to play in the NIT.

At the end of the day i think we'll make it. In my opinion winning @Davidson is the key. They cannot stop Pollard inside, he will eat them alive. And Cooke and Kyle can do their work on the only 2 scoring threats they have, Gibbs and Aldridge.

Prediction: Beat GMU,Beat Davidson,Beat VCU, Lose GW. Win the A-10 Tournament. #9 Seed.

We will drop the #1 seed and make the Final Four. After that who knows.

Bookmark this and tell me how smart i am at the end of March.
Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Cocaine is a powerful drug.........


2/2. For the Record i hope my 4th prediction is wrong.
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  #404  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Two way street. The "better" teams have to agree to play us. Im with the AD 100% on this. Id rather play a D2 team that doesn't count then a D1 Prairie View A&M
I'm not saying we are doing the wrong thing given the circumstances. I just wish the NCAA wouldn't allow it. There are D1 schools begging to play better D1 teams and instead they are allowed to play a D2 school. I'm no mathematician but if all the D1 vs. D2 games each year were disallowed that would add up to a fair amount of games for lower level D1 teams to pick up to try to better their resume. The NCAA committee continually says to mid-major teams that you have to do better job with your strength of schedule yet they allow D1 majors to play D2 schools in lieu of other D1 schools looking to better their SOS.
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  #405  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
I'm not saying we are doing the wrong thing given the circumstances. I just wish the NCAA wouldn't allow it. There are D1 schools begging to play better D1 teams and instead they are allowed to play a D2 school. I'm no mathematician but if all the D1 vs. D2 games each year were disallowed that would add up to a fair amount of games for lower level D1 teams to pick up to try to better their resume. The NCAA committee continually says to mid-major teams that you have to do better job with your strength of schedule yet they allow D1 majors to play D2 schools in lieu of other D1 schools looking to better their SOS.
If the NCAA did this it would force the mid-majors to play sub 250 rpi schools to fill the schedule in certain situations.. UD would have had to do that this year and the rpi would suffer. P5 could refuse to play the mids and make the situation even worse. Granted we got caught in a time bind with the St Mary's game forcing the AD to do what he did. He played it correctly. It doesn't happen very often but given the disadvantage schools like UD face vs the middle of the pack P5 schools, having the option of playing a DII school in a pinch is a plus.
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  #406  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:19 AM
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What it all comes down to is that there are wayyyyyy to many D1 schools.
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  #407  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:24 AM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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CT Flyer, think of it this way, you have to think of every game scheduled in terms of the metrics. Love it or hate it, RPI is still the boss, when they reference Top 25 wins,Top 50 wins,etc.....they aren't referencing the polls,BPI,KenPom,Sagarin or Massey. They are talking RPI. Manipulating the RPI is the name of the game. Neil Sullivan is the master of this game.
i don't know the real numbers but, our RPI currently stands at @25. if we replace the D2 game with a drubbing of Southwest Oklahoma A&T our RPI could be 30 or worse. This game was a result of the game of chicken Neil played with St. Mary's and won. I'll take it every time
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  #408  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:29 AM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Ive not seen this mentioned but this will be helpful, Northwestern sits at 50. If Northwestern drops out of the Top 50 our Top 100 record stays the same but our Top 50 record improves. The ever so slight hit to our RPI of Northwestern dropping is made up for in the gigantic advantage of dropping a Top 50 loss and not adding one to Top 100
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  #409  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
I'm not saying we are doing the wrong thing given the circumstances. I just wish the NCAA wouldn't allow it. There are D1 schools begging to play better D1 teams and instead they are allowed to play a D2 school. I'm no mathematician but if all the D1 vs. D2 games each year were disallowed that would add up to a fair amount of games for lower level D1 teams to pick up to try to better their resume. The NCAA committee continually says to mid-major teams that you have to do better job with your strength of schedule yet they allow D1 majors to play D2 schools in lieu of other D1 schools looking to better their SOS.
The schools that play the div2 schools typically aren't the D1 majors. It's the mid-majors that typically do it.

East Tennessee State, Chattanooga, Middle Tennessee, Valpo, UNC Wilmington, Illinois State, Texas Arlington, Vermont, Akron, Princeton, Belmont, New Mexico State (although they've fallen off), and Cal State Bakersfield are all teams outside of power conferences that knew they would be good. All played at least 1 div2 school. Several of them played multiple div2 schools.

Now, all claim they had to because they couldn't get good teams to play them.

Now, what's wrong with this picture?? What is the OBVIOUS solution to this problem??

I'm all for the non-power teams. I'd venture to say that I probably collectively follow them a lot more closely than most people do. And I know that the power teams are hesitant to play them. However, they are also hesitant to play each other. So part of this is on them. They should schedule each other instead of playing div2 teams.

Now, in defense of Middle Tennessee, they did play a lot of teams on this list, but no one else really did. I don't think it's a coincidence that Middle Tennessee is in the best position to get an invite to the NCAA Tournament if they end up falling in the conference tourney.
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  #410  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:42 AM
CT Flyer CT Flyer is offline
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
CT Flyer, think of it this way, you have to think of every game scheduled in terms of the metrics. Love it or hate it, RPI is still the boss, when they reference Top 25 wins,Top 50 wins,etc.....they aren't referencing the polls,BPI,KenPom,Sagarin or Massey. They are talking RPI. Manipulating the RPI is the name of the game. Neil Sullivan is the master of this game.
i don't know the real numbers but, our RPI currently stands at @25. if we replace the D2 game with a drubbing of Southwest Oklahoma A&T our RPI could be 30 or worse. This game was a result of the game of chicken Neil played with St. Mary's and won. I'll take it every time
I get it, I get it. But wouldn't everybody that played a D2 be in the same boat? This is why i keep saying all of these advanced metrics has removed winning as the most important piece of the puzzle.
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  #411  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:47 AM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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I see where you are coming from. When this board went nuts late summer over scheduling this game, i said then what i'll say now:

If we make the NCAA Tournament, who cares?

Hell with the journey. All about the destination.

Neil Sullivan has forgotten more about the RPI then all of us keyboard warriors will ever know.
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  #412  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:49 AM
CT Flyer CT Flyer is offline
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Again given the the circumstances I don't blame us for doing it I just wish it weren't allowed from up above, i.e. the NCAA.
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  #413  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:49 AM
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UD up to 24th in the Dance Card, or, last #6 seed. I like it, 6 is a great position. Home whites against an #11 and dodge the #1 or #2 in the next Round.

Also interesting, Rhode Island 4 or 5 spots from the cut line in the good way
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  #414  
Old 02-26-2017, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
Again given the the circumstances I don't blame us for doing it I just wish it weren't allowed from up above, i.e. the NCAA.
Probably not going to happen but it was still a master manipulation of the RPI game. I have a hunch with a run this year and Archie gets another extension AND stays, scheduling the likes of Gonzaga and Wichita State will be the norm, nobody wants to play in their buildings either. Power 5's coming here is almost impossible, but seeing the likes Gonzaga,Wichita State,New Mexico,SDSU,BYU,St. Mary's,Valpo and Northern Iowa as home and homes is not.

The networks love our eyeballs and we play in a great exempt Tournament every year. We'll get our shots at the Power 5's there as well as the Dance.

Go Flyers!
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  #415  
Old 02-26-2017, 12:02 PM
SLUFLYER SLUFLYER is offline
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Ive not seen this mentioned but this will be helpful, Northwestern sits at 50. If Northwestern drops out of the Top 50 our Top 100 record stays the same but our Top 50 record improves. The ever so slight hit to our RPI of Northwestern dropping is made up for in the gigantic advantage of dropping a Top 50 loss and not adding one to Top 100
I don't believe it will be that helpful. It will be helpful for guys like Palm and Lunardi to justify or discount a team like Dayton and their projected seed, but in the end it's just smoke and mirrors that the committee will see through/work through.

Northwestern remains likely to make the field, and it's going to be construed as a quality loss on Dayton's resume, regardless.

3-2 vs Top 50 or 3-3 vs Top 50 isn't going to change much of anything. When it's all said and done, we're going to be evaluated on who we beat, where we beat them and to some degree, when we beat them. The most scrutinized of those wins will be against teams that are "in consideration for the at-large field". There will also be a lot of scrutiny over "bad losses", which we only have one.

One thing that I find interesting is the continued diminishing value of the RPI, yet everyone's records vs the Top 25, Top 50 and Top 100 are all measured by the team's RPI ranking. If it's really becoming that "worthless", how can it be the indicator used to measure those victories/losses? I think that further suggests how unimportant Northwestern's RPI is as it relates to staying in or moving out of the Top 50.
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  #416  
Old 02-26-2017, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
What it all comes down to is that there are wayyyyyy to many D1 schools.
EXACTLY!!!! UD scheduled a D2 school because all of the available D-1 schools were too crappy. it is a fine line to draw as college basketball's success over the years has a lot to do with the little guy winning and competing. but there are definitely schools out there thathave apparently zero institutional desire to compete regularly and therefore really have no chance of competing. but implementing some sort of standard for D-1 participation at this point would be nearly impossible. All schools like UD can do is keep winning. With winning notoriety comes opportunities to get the TV attention and games you want.
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  #417  
Old 02-26-2017, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
Now, what's wrong with this picture?? What is the OBVIOUS solution to this problem??

I'm all for the non-power teams. I'd venture to say that I probably collectively follow them a lot more closely than most people do. And I know that the power teams are hesitant to play them. However, they are also hesitant to play each other. So part of this is on them. They should schedule each other instead of playing div2 teams.
Bingo! This is what I keep coming back to in my mind. In fact, it's so obvious that I can't understand why schools like Dayton haven't banded together to make this happen. But something crazy is going on. I mean, we can forget North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, or even Purdue playing at the Arena unless it's in the NCAA Tournament. But why was it so hard to get St. Mary's to agree to a mutually beneficial home-and-home? It's as if everyone like us is saying, "No. It's not worth losing at their place just to win at ours the following year." But if the big boys won't bite then how can we all not get together and play each other? We don't need to be in a conference with Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Wichita St, and Temple. We just need 3 or 4 OOC series a year with them. Then we can dump Alabama and Vandy.
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  #418  
Old 02-26-2017, 12:33 PM
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Rhode Island is up to #42 in the RPI. Need them to keep winning to stay in the Top 50. Vanderbilt is hanging in there at #48.
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  #419  
Old 02-26-2017, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
3-2 vs Top 50 or 3-3 vs Top 50 isn't going to change much of anything.
Or, if you are in a P5 conference, 4-10 is better than UD's 3-3.
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  #420  
Old 02-26-2017, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Probably not going to happen but it was still a master manipulation of the RPI game. I have a hunch with a run this year and Archie gets another extension AND stays, scheduling the likes of Gonzaga and Wichita State will be the norm, nobody wants to play in their buildings either. Power 5's coming here is almost impossible, but seeing the likes Gonzaga,Wichita State,New Mexico,SDSU,BYU,St. Mary's,Valpo and Northern Iowa as home and homes is not.

The networks love our eyeballs and we play in a great exempt Tournament every year. We'll get our shots at the Power 5's there as well as the Dance.

Go Flyers!
If we can't get these schools I'd look at Boise St, Vermont, Princeton, Akron, Nevada, Illinois St.....We see these names routinely in the tournament.
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Old 02-26-2017, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Rhode Island is up to #42 in the RPI. Need them to keep winning to stay in the Top 50. Vanderbilt is hanging in there at #48.
We need them to keep winning so that they are conceived as a quality team/win and that they remain under serious consideration and hopefully get in the tournament. The RPI 50 cut line is for talking heads and pundits. In the war room with the committee, it is not going to matter if Rhody's RPI is #49 or #51. What will matter is did Dayton beat a quality opponent?
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Old 02-26-2017, 01:04 PM
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For what it's worth I think there Dayton is much closer to wearing white in the Round of 64 than they are to not playing in the Round of 64. Even if Dayton loses their last two games and goes out in the quarters of the A10 tournament I think the chances are still above 50 percent of them making it. And I don't foresee Dayton losing their last three games.
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  #423  
Old 02-26-2017, 01:43 PM
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I don't buy the argument of playing all those good mid majors. It feeds into the P5. Lose to just one of them and it leads to elimination of the game loser. In fact, the perfect situation to t to kick the crap out of all the low P5 schools. But that requires eventually going on the road for those games. That is where I believe UD currently is. Not ready to make that call.
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Old 02-26-2017, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
It is very possible that ETSU will become another top-50 win for the Flyers. They are currently at 70 and will likely win out, one of those wins being a decent road win at UNC-Greensboro. If they can do that and win a couple games in the SOCON tournament they could definitely be in the top-50.
If they win four straight, their only chance to make the top 50 would be a few teams ahead of them to fall out of the top 50.
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Old 02-26-2017, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by keats '91 View Post
I don't buy the argument of playing all those good mid majors. It feeds into the P5. Lose to just one of them and it leads to elimination of the game loser. In fact, the perfect situation to t to kick the crap out of all the low P5 schools. But that requires eventually going on the road for those games. That is where I believe UD currently is. Not ready to make that call.
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Not really. That's a misconception that ends up making it worse rather than better because the end result is that the mid-majors end up scheduling div2 teams instead of scheduling each other.

Now I don't consider UD to be a mid-major, but UD lost to Saint Mary's, at home, yet they're not eliminated.

UD lost to Chattanooga last year, at home, and was wearing white in the round of 64 for just the second time ever.

Those are two losses to mid majors that didn't sink you. It wouldn't sink any of them if they opted to play each other rather than to play div2 teams.
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Old 02-26-2017, 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
We need them to keep winning so that they are conceived as a quality team/win and that they remain under serious consideration and hopefully get in the tournament. The RPI 50 cut line is for talking heads and pundits. In the war room with the committee, it is not going to matter if Rhody's RPI is #49 or #51. What will matter is did Dayton beat a quality opponent?
I respectfully disagree. Once they get down to comparing groups of teams it won't matter, but the scorecard they use has # Top 50 RPI wins on it.

Read Chris's piece on when UDPRIDE was part of the mock selection. It is very enlightening. I think Top 50 wins matter most Monday - Wednesday of conference tournament week when they are doing their initial pass. After Wednesday things are fairly solid except for the bubble. Having 3-4 Top 50 wins will move us into a group that is more secure before they begin to do the detailed analysis. The year we ended up in the First Four Texas A&M and Ole Miss just fell out of the Top 50 the week before conference tourney week. I believe that hurt us and is why we ended up in the First Four discussion groups.

Here is a sample of the selection committee's report:

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi...y%20Gritty.pdf

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Old 02-26-2017, 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
For what it's worth I think there Dayton is much closer to wearing white in the Round of 64 than they are to not playing in the Round of 64. Even if Dayton loses their last two games and goes out in the quarters of the A10 tournament I think the chances are still above 50 percent of them making it. And I don't foresee Dayton losing their last three games.
Agreed. What many lose sight of is that we are being compared to other teams. We aren't judged in a vacuum. If you look at the teams being considered for the last 5-7 at-large births our resume is leaps and bounds superior. Frankly, as we sit right now I see a 7 seed much more likely than a 10 or 11.
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Old 02-27-2017, 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Looking at this from Coffeecan's perspective, should be an interesting reveal later this afternoon in the AP top 25. This week, UD won both as we know, a win at SLU that likely does little other than adds a victory on the road and "keep pace" as well as a home win over St Bonnies, who while decent, likely doesn't mean much to the uniformed press outside of A10 land who have no idea who Jay Adams is. So I would assume that UD keeps the 4 points from the 3 voters in last weeks poll, if not gain a few more votes from those 3, the question is how many, if any additional voters move UD into their top 25 this week potentially setting them up for a re-appearance in the final top 25 heading to Pittsburgh if they can manage to win out.

#20 Creighton lost at Seton Hall, but beat GTown at home
#21 South Carolina lost at home to Arkansas, and @ Vandy
#22 St Mary's won both, including a convincing win at BYU
#23 Maryland won at NWestern, but lost @ Wisky
#24 Butler cruised to 2 wins over bad teams
#25 ND cruised to 2 wins over bad teams

#26 Wichita St cruised to 2 wins over bad teams
#27 Xavier lost 2 road games against decent teams w/o Bluiet for either
#28 Northwestern lost at home to Maryland, beat a bad Rutgers team
#29 So Cal got crushed at UCLA
#30 VCU beat St joes and won @ Richmond
#31 UD
#32 M Tenn St & #33 Monmouth both won against poor teams
#33 Okie St won @ TCU and home over Oklahoma
#34 Vermont I'll assume won games over poor teams (not surprisingly, Feinstein is their 1 point)

So it seems like there are some votes to get from So Carolina, So Cal, perhaps Maryland or Northwestern and Xavier. How many of those votes can UD get, how many will Okie St pick up, who else enters the conversation on the back of somebody's ballot. If UD can work their way up to getting on 5 or more ballots this week, pick up wins over GMason and @ Davidson perhaps they'll find their way onto 20 or so ballots the following week and be right on the fringe, setting them up to take all off VCU's ballots (only 4 voters as of last week) the following week w/ a win over them and @ GW as well as finding their way onto half or more of the ballots the last week and slide their way into the top 25.

the big question for UD's hopes, aside from "can they win out" is how fluid are the rankings at this point? Is one loss or victory really going to change your perspective all that much? Should it change their perspective in comparison to 80% or so of the season that has already been played out? If UD can pick up some additional voters today, then I think they've got a shot, if its just the same 3 people, then likely no shot of getting ranked heading into Pittsburgh.
#16 Wisky lost both road games, one at OSU who isn't making the field. I don't expect them to drop all the way out, but should fall into the 22 range.

#18 Virginia lost at home to Miami, redeemed themselves a bit with a home win over NC State, but that ain't worth much at this point. Don't expect them to drop out, but may be close

#23 Creighton lost twice; will drop out

#24 Maryland lost twice, both at home, frankly they shouldn't be on anyone's ballot this week, though they will. Talent for sure, but not much in the accomplishment ledger.

#26 VCU lost at Rhody, will still get some votes, maybe 2-5 points total
#27 Northwestern continues its slide, so many were "sure" they'd make the dance, maybe not
#28 Iowa St is going to be ranked
#29 So Carolina got pounded at Florida, then pounded Tennessee at home, will be interesting to see where they fall based upon that
#30 So California lost at Arizona St, thank you Hurley Brothers
#31 Dayton won both, as we know
#32 Okie St won both, a solid win @ KState, and home over TTech, likely better wins in the eyes of the national media than UD had this week, will be interesting to see where they land.
#33 Minny won at Maryland and home over Pedo St, I think they'll crack the top 25 this week based upon that
#35 Miami won at UVA and home over Duke, I think they'll crack the top 25 as well, will jump UD for sure.

I'm guessing UD will fall somewhere b/w 25th to 28th this week and If I'm betting I'd say they are either 26th or 27th. The key to getting ranked next week (aside from winning both games) is how many ballots they make this week. VCU at 26th is currently on 15 ballots; VCU at 25 was on 41 ballots last week; I think UD need to take the jump from the 5 they are currently on up to the 15-20 range; we shall see.

In two weeks when you are hoping to have somewhere b/w a 1 and a 16 next to your name, none of this matters, I'm not even sure if the AP ballot plays any roll in the selection process outside of another data point and keeping your name fresh on the members minds, but I'd rather UD be ranked than not ranked when the committee gathers in a week and a half and starts taking their first ballots.
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  #429  
Old 02-27-2017, 12:12 PM
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Flyers #28 in AP Poll
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Old 02-27-2017, 01:16 PM
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Named on 17 ballots.
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Old 02-27-2017, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Named on 17 ballots.
Up from 5 a week ago.
Inexplicably, one voter ranked us #25 last week but somehow we fell off his ballot this week.

http://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/team/ud2/2016
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  #432  
Old 02-27-2017, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Up from 5 a week ago.
Inexplicably, one voter ranked us #25 last week but somehow we fell off his ballot this week.

http://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/team/ud2/2016
Elton (Cleveland Plain Dealer), my main man!!!
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  #433  
Old 02-27-2017, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Up from 5 a week ago.
Inexplicably, one voter ranked us #25 last week but somehow we fell off his ballot this week.

http://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/team/ud2/2016
And the one guy who voted VCU #24 this week (David Cloninger Columbia, SC) didn't even have them ranked last week.

I gave up a long time ago with these polls. I just wait for Gary Parrish to mock one of them each week in his Poll Attacks for some ranking that makes no sense at all. It's almost like they don't even check to see if the teams won or lost that week sometimes.
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Old 02-27-2017, 01:35 PM
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So looking forward...

IF UD wins both

#22 Wisky plays host to #26 Minny (as well as Iowa at home)
#23 UVA plays UNC & Pitt at home
#24 Iowa St plays host to #27 Okie St and @ WVU
#25 Miami is @ VTech and @ Free shoes U

Okie State also plays host to Kansas, Wichita & St Mary's enter conference tournament time.

IF UD can win out, looks like there is a good shot at sliding into the top 25 next week based upon matchups.

Dayton up to 31 in the kenpom & BPI, not sure about KPI or other metrics.

Win both, I think they are solidly a 7 with a good shot at a 6 as long as they make it to Saturday in Pittsburgh.
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Old 02-28-2017, 08:33 AM
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Dancecard is updating daily now. They are the most accurate, if season ended today. Dayton is ranked 28 overall which would be the last team on the 7 line. Other teams of interest:

St. Mary's 22 (6 seed)
VCU 34 (8 seed)
Xavier 38 (10 seed)
Northwestern 40 (10 seed)
Rhode Island 45 (12 seed)

Syracuse and Marquette out. These are reliable analytics but goes without saying it erases the human element. I have a tough time seeing them leave Cuse out.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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  #436  
Old 02-28-2017, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by jerseyflyer09 View Post
Dancecard is updating daily now. They are the most accurate, if season ended today. Dayton is ranked 28 overall which would be the last team on the 7 line. Other teams of interest:

St. Mary's 22 (6 seed)
VCU 34 (8 seed)
Xavier 38 (10 seed)
Northwestern 40 (10 seed)
Rhode Island 45 (12 seed)

Syracuse and Marquette out. These are reliable analytics but goes without saying it erases the human element. I have a tough time seeing them leave Cuse out.
X versus Marquette will be worth watching. A lot on the line for both teams. If Maquette can win, it would be a solid road win that could put them back in the mix. X on the other hand has their backs up against the wall. If they lose, they are definitely on the bubble. Go Eagles!!!
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  #437  
Old 02-28-2017, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by jerseyflyer09 View Post
Dancecard is updating daily now. They are the most accurate, if season ended today. Dayton is ranked 28 overall which would be the last team on the 7 line. Other teams of interest:

St. Mary's 22 (6 seed)
VCU 34 (8 seed)
Xavier 38 (10 seed)
Northwestern 40 (10 seed)
Rhode Island 45 (12 seed)

Syracuse and Marquette out. These are reliable analytics but goes without saying it erases the human element. I have a tough time seeing them leave Cuse out.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
I think they are accurate in terms of who gets in, not necessarily the seed lines unless I am mistaken.

I think we are much more likely to be underseeded than overseeded. So while I agree that we are looking good, a seven seed means an eight or even nine...
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  #438  
Old 02-28-2017, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
I think they are accurate in terms of who gets in, not necessarily the seed lines unless I am mistaken.

I think we are much more likely to be underseeded than overseeded. So while I agree that we are looking good, a seven seed means an eight or even nine...
Correct, they do not seed teams. They just predict who will be in based off of previous selection committees selections. 28th for them does not mean a 7 seed, it means we have the 28th best resume based off of previous committees.
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  #439  
Old 02-28-2017, 11:36 AM
jerseyflyer09 jerseyflyer09 is offline
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I don't really agree with that. Look at past years rankings vs. seed lines. I've said it before, they were the only ones in 2015 who had us firmly on the bubble (they actually had us first out and we were last in), and last year they had us correctly as a 7. 2014 though they were way off with us as a 7 when we turned out being 11 (though we were moved a spot down I think for the ohio state matchup so the committee prob had us a 10). I think if you follow their rankings the seeds are pretty close too
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Old 02-28-2017, 11:47 AM
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Originally Posted by jerseyflyer09 View Post
I don't really agree with that. Look at past years rankings vs. seed lines. I've said it before, they were the only ones in 2015 who had us firmly on the bubble (they actually had us first out and we were last in), and last year they had us correctly as a 7. 2014 though they were way off with us as a 7 when we turned out being 11 (though we were moved a spot down I think for the ohio state matchup so the committee prob had us a 10). I think if you follow their rankings the seeds are pretty close too
The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

That is right off their website.

They have Butler and Baylor as numbers 3 and 4 in their rankings, neither are ranked in the top 10. Neither will get a number 1 seed but if you go by the way you interpret dance card they will. Again, they are not a true bracketology. They are not predicting seeding.
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  #441  
Old 02-28-2017, 11:50 AM
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Butler and Baylor likely won't be #1 seeds, but they will be top 3, so it's close but not precise. UD just needs to win out in the regular season and win 1st game of tourney and should end up a 7 seed again. I just don't realistically think we can reach as high as 6, but would love to be proven wrong. Maybe winning the A10 tourney will get us up to that spot (so basically Winning out). We do need the Iowa Sts, South Carolinas, Va Techs, Miamis of the world to lose some games.
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  #442  
Old 02-28-2017, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by 116 Chambers View Post
Butler and Baylor likely won't be #1 seeds, but they will be top 3, so it's close but not precise. UD just needs to win out in the regular season and win 1st game of tourney and should end up a 7 seed again. I just don't realistically think we can reach as high as 6, but would love to be proven wrong. Maybe winning the A10 tourney will get us up to that spot (so basically Winning out). We do need the Iowa Sts, South Carolinas, Va Techs, Miamis of the world to lose some games.
Miami lost last night so that's a start although it was V Tech who beat them so I guess that's a push.
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  #443  
Old 02-28-2017, 12:13 PM
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If we lose 3 do we still get in at 23-8
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Old 02-28-2017, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Tony T 71 View Post
If we lose 3 do we still get in at 23-8
I think so. Remember, every at large team no matter how good or how bad will lose at least 1 more game b/w now and selection Sunday. I wouldn't be comfortable with them losing the last 3 and holding on to a bid, but I think they'd fall into the 11 seed range. I'd rather not test that theory, and am holding out hope that they can win their next 3 or more and get up into a 6 seed.
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  #445  
Old 02-28-2017, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Tony T 71 View Post
If we lose 3 do we still get in at 23-8
Probably not, but it'd be close. RPI would be around 40 with a loss to VCU, loss to GW, and a loss to LaSalle (or someone close to their profile).

Win over VCU, and we are a stone lock. Worst case scenario at that point would be an RPI in the 27-30 range.
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  #446  
Old 02-28-2017, 03:25 PM
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I would be satisfied with: W - L - W - L. Not ecstatic, but satisfied. Outright A-10 Champs, make it to A-10 Tourney semis, lock for NCAA, get a pretty good seed. (Obviously I would prefer to win at least 4 in a row.)
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Old 02-28-2017, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
I would be satisfied with: W - L - W - L. Not ecstatic, but satisfied. Outright A-10 Champs, make it to A-10 Tourney semis, lock for NCAA, get a pretty good seed. (Obviously I would prefer to win at least 4 in a row.)
If given the choice of the above or L-L-W-W-W, I'd rather see Flyers finish with the 3 Ws in A10 play. Not just for the auto birth but I really want to see them cut down the nets in Pittsburgh. Granted there would be a week of misery before the happiness.
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Old 02-28-2017, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
If given the choice of the above or L-L-W-W-W, I'd rather see Flyers finish with the 3 Ws in A10 play. Not just for the auto birth but I really want to see them cut down the nets in Pittsburgh. Granted there would be a week of misery before the happiness.
That would be great, but if we lost our next two games I'm afraid you wouldn't be able to get me down off the ledge in time to see them cut down the nets.
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  #449  
Old 02-28-2017, 08:14 PM
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  #450  
Old 03-01-2017, 07:33 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
I would be satisfied with: W - L - W - L. Not ecstatic, but satisfied. Outright A-10 Champs, make it to A-10 Tourney semis, lock for NCAA, get a pretty good seed. (Obviously I would prefer to win at least 4 in a row.)
You offer me that right now with a GUARANTEED NCAA berth i reject it. We are better then that. We may have settled for that under BG, but this is Archie's team. Archie doesn't settle, Archie excels. We're cutting down the nets tonight, we are beating GW then we are cutting down the nets in Pittsburgh.

Then the real ride begins.
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  #451  
Old 03-01-2017, 08:01 AM
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We haven't won the A10 tournament since 2003 when it was here. Archie hasn't done it in 5 tries.

We also have still NEVER won a regular season outright conference championship.

Two things on the to-do list, one of them can get done tonight.
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Old 03-01-2017, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I think so. Remember, every at large team no matter how good or how bad will lose at least 1 more game b/w now and selection Sunday. I wouldn't be comfortable with them losing the last 3 and holding on to a bid, but I think they'd fall into the 11 seed range. I'd rather not test that theory, and am holding out hope that they can win their next 3 or more and get up into a 6 seed.
Much rather be an 11 than be an 8/9.
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  #453  
Old 03-01-2017, 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Canonball View Post
Much rather be an 11 than be an 8/9.
1. So if we win tonight, I think we will, are off the 8 line and on the 7?
2. If we lose tonight, are we off the 8 line and on the 10?

I want to win out and I think we will. But getting off the 8 or 9 even with a loss is not the worst thing in the world.
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  #454  
Old 03-01-2017, 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Canonball View Post
Much rather be an 11 than be an 8/9.
Lunardi has the 8/9s as - WSU, MSU, UD, Ark, Miami, X, Mich, VCU

The 6s are, Ok St, Wisc, Creighton, St Mary's

I agree, I'd rather take the chance on playing those 6s with a win giving you a shot at a 3 rather than the 8/9 with a win getting you a 2.

It could never happen because of all the logistics but what would be real interesting is if they did like the Ohio HD basketball tournament where they let teams pick the line they wanted to go on based upon their seed. The higher #seeded teams would get to pick match ups based upon where the lower #seeded teams went.
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Old 03-01-2017, 09:29 AM
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8/9 is like getting socks for Christmas.
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  #456  
Old 03-01-2017, 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Lunardi has the 8/9s as - WSU, MSU, UD, Ark, Miami, X, Mich, VCU

The 6s are, Ok St, Wisc, Creighton, St Mary's

I agree, I'd rather take the chance on playing those 6s with a win giving you a shot at a 3 rather than the 8/9 with a win getting you a 2.

It could never happen because of all the logistics but what would be real interesting is if they did like the Ohio HD basketball tournament where they let teams pick the line they wanted to go on based upon their seed. The higher #seeded teams would get to pick match ups based upon where the lower #seeded teams went.
I think UD can beat any one of those teams.
Round two match up against a 1 or 2 seed usually makes for a quick tournament.
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Old 03-01-2017, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Canonball View Post
I think UD can beat any one of those teams.
Round two match up against a 1 or 2 seed usually makes for a quick tournament.
I used to feel this way also- but- if the goal is to actually WIN the NCAA, then you're likely going to have to beat a 1 seed anyway- so why not do it early when likely you're overlooked as an 8 seed vs the final 8/4 when a 1 seed is likely more focused?
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Old 03-01-2017, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan67 View Post
I used to feel this way also- but- if the goal is to actually WIN the NCAA, then you're likely going to have to beat a 1 seed anyway- so why not do it early when likely you're overlooked as an 8 seed vs the final 8/4 when a 1 seed is likely more focused?
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My thoughts exactly. You essentially become the #1 seed at that point too, as you have taken the actual #1 seed's spot.
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Old 03-01-2017, 12:43 PM
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Let the other 8/9 or 4/5 beat the 1. I'd much rather be a 6 seed and play an 11 & 3 (who often times lose to a 14) and get to the next weekend. It's really all about getting to the next weekend where the light starts to shine on the program. Getting to the 3rd weekend--final four--is the true spotlight. An 8/9 makes it the most difficult to do.
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  #460  
Old 03-01-2017, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
Let the other 8/9 or 4/5 beat the 1. I'd much rather be a 6 seed and play an 11 & 3 (who often times lose to a 14) and get to the next weekend. It's really all about getting to the next weekend where the light starts to shine on the program. Getting to the 3rd weekend--final four--is the true spotlight. An 8/9 makes it the most difficult to do.
This.

A #1 has never lost to a 16. Ever. So you are playing a #1 guaranteed as an 8/9.

I would much rather be overseeded as a 6 or 7 or underseeded as a 10 or 11 than remain as an 8/9.

There are a lot of average teams that will get in this year. The top of the bracket is very, very good. Gonzaga, Nova, UNC, Kansas, UCLA, Oregon... yikes.

When VCU made their run in 2011, they came in as an 11 and beat a 6, 3 and 10 before they had to play a 1.

Check out http://brackethelp.com/sweet16analysis.html

In 31 tournaments and 124 opportunites for each seed:

"#8 and #9 seeds have fared very poorly when it comes to reaching the Sweet 16, with twelve and five appearances, respectively. It's easy to pinpoint why: the winner of the #8 vs. #9 first round game has to play a #1 seed in the second round. This is a fine example of why you'd rather be seeded at #10, #11, or #12 than at #8 or #9."

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  #461  
Old 03-01-2017, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
This.
When VCU made their run in 2011, they came in as an 11 and beat a 6, 3 and 10 before they had to play a 1.
So did we in 2014. It was just the 1 we faced was the overall tournament #1.

Last year, Syracuse was a 10 who played a 7 (us), then got the luck of the 15 winning the 2/15 matchup. So they played a 7, 15, 11, 1 road to the Final 4.
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Old 03-01-2017, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
So did we in 2014. It was just the 1 we faced was the overall tournament #1.

Last year, Syracuse was a 10 who played a 7 (us), then got the luck of the 15 winning the 2/15 matchup. So they played a 7, 15, 11, 1 road to the Final 4.
Oh, I did not forget 2014. Just highlighting the path that VCU went down to successfully get to the Final Four. Good call on Cuse.

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Old 03-01-2017, 01:24 PM
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Obviously everyone talks the game of 'we're here to win a championship'. However, even through my red and blue glasses, I can see that this UD team is not poised to do so. Any team with interior size is a mismatch and that's basically all your 1's. The best route forward, as was pointed out above, is to avoid 8/9. I'm fine being an under seeded 11, the Flyers are at their best when they're underestimated. Gonzaga is where they are now because they consistently are playing in the second weekend or longer and with that comes name recognition. It's the juice that get's the Jimmy's and Joe's in the door. Archie is still laying the foundation for a program that in many ways has to follow the Zag's model.
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Old 03-01-2017, 01:24 PM
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I don't see this highlighted anywhere, but I fully expect UD to be playing all our games at least on the moon if not farther away from Ohio after the "unfairness" of playing so close to home previously. It seems like the sort of thing the committee might have a long memory for.
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Old 03-01-2017, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post
I don't see this highlighted anywhere, but I fully expect UD to be playing all our games at least on the moon if not farther away from Ohio after the "unfairness" of playing so close to home previously. It seems like the sort of thing the committee might have a long memory for.
We thought that last time too but ended up in St. Louis. Buffalo, Milwaukee and Indy are all doable for me for driving.
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Old 03-01-2017, 01:36 PM
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This team can still scoot up to a 6 by winning out. Im not so sure a 5 is out of the question. Thats the highest though. Agreed with everyone about the 6 seed. 6 seed is probably where we want to be.
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Old 03-01-2017, 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
Let the other 8/9 or 4/5 beat the 1. I'd much rather be a 6 seed and play an 11 & 3 (who often times lose to a 14) and get to the next weekend. It's really all about getting to the next weekend where the light starts to shine on the program. Getting to the 3rd weekend--final four--is the true spotlight. An 8/9 makes it the most difficult to do.
Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
I would much rather be overseeded as a 6 or 7 or underseeded as a 10 or 11 than remain as an 8/9.
Exactly. The first goal is to get to the second weekend. This gives a huge amount of publicity to the program. Why make it more difficult to get to there? I'll take the easiest path to the Sweet Sixteen I can get and then worry about the #1 seed. I wouldn't want to play a #1 seed any sooner than I have to. Getting to the Sweet Sixteen is huge!

Edit: Also, looks like Vanderbilt stayed in the Top 50 after their loss to Kentucky.

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  #468  
Old 03-01-2017, 02:30 PM
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BTW, if you're expecting a big RPI move if we win tonight, don't.

There is as big a raw RPI number gap between us at #21 and #20 Purdue as there is between us and #33 Arkansas. We probably won't move up at all.
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Old 03-01-2017, 02:33 PM
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Winning the next two would only bump them up to about 20th according to rpiforecast. however, that's high enough that moving up/down a small amount from there due to results in Pittsburgh won't make much of a difference in seeding.
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Old 03-01-2017, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Tony T 71 View Post
If we lose 3 do we still get in at 23-8
Yes, IMO 23-8 is good enough...seems that the committee does not really punish teams for conference tournament losses, whereas the committee does seem to reward teams for conference tournament wins.
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Old 03-01-2017, 03:10 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Yes, IMO 23-8 is good enough...seems that the committee does not really punish teams for conference tournament losses, whereas the committee does seem to reward teams for conference tournament wins.
Our record that would be evaluated would really be 22-8 because the committee will not consider the D2 game.
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Old 03-01-2017, 03:45 PM
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So what would the RPI be if we had played some 275 RPI school?
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Old 03-01-2017, 04:06 PM
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24 using rpi wizard on rpi forecast.

If you change that 275 school (Marist) w/ a home win over GW (128 picked them to give you the idea of somebody in that range) their rpi would be 21, what it is today. Change GW out w/ a UMass (180ish) as your replacement for the D2 school and the rpi would be 21 again. Now, just for fun, I changed out the game for a home win over Kansas (I believe they are #1, if not close to it) and it would jump to 17 at the moment, not a huge jump in overall performance, but a huge boost in resume.

For poops and laughs, I ran an additional loss in its place at Richmond (rpi 90ish figuring that would be the range of a team that UD might convince to play home and away from a power conference) and the rpi would drop to 23 at the moment.

Seems like in the grand scheme of things, scheduling anybody in that game for a home game, assuming a win, wouldn't have mattered all that much.
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  #474  
Old 03-01-2017, 04:25 PM
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From Gary Parish's top 25 (and one), I noticed this comment on Wisconsin:

"The Badgers have three top-50 RPI wins and just one sub-50 loss. They've dropped four of their past five games."

I think that this is how many bracketologists and committee members boil it down. Losses only matter if they are sub-50 and wins only matter if they are top-50. This is why a team with a resume like ours gets screwed as UW went 3-6 vs top 50 and we went 3-3 but have two sub 50 losses.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-bas...flight-resume/
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  #475  
Old 03-01-2017, 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Seems like in the grand scheme of things, scheduling anybody in that game for a home game, assuming a win, wouldn't have mattered all that much.
If we were on the bubble, then a few spots in the rpi and sos rankings would mean a great deal.
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Old 03-01-2017, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
If we were on the bubble, then a few spots in the rpi and sos rankings would mean a great deal.
I don't think so, I don't think the Flyers get any real benefit from beating the #200 rpi team at home early in the year, but they could suffer greatly from a loss. Given the conference, I don't think UD will ever find itself in a position similar to Syracuse last year (or potentially this year) with a handful of really high quality wins over protected seed and only a few bad losses, resulting in a 70ish rpi which is the upper edge of the cutoff. I don't think an rpi of 44 vs 41 is going to be a factor at all for UD, it will be about who they lost to, who they beat and were, not the specific rpi number. UD will never get in w/ an rpi of 72 like Cuse did last season.
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Old 03-01-2017, 05:06 PM
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What would be the effect of playing Presbyterian (346), Alabama A&M (350), Arkansas State, 341 or Central Conn. State (345). All teams that we have played in the last 5-6 or so years?
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Old 03-02-2017, 06:15 AM
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We didn't move up as predicted, but VCU moved up to #22, right behind us, with the loss.

We get our first huge top 25 win for the resume.

And if we win out, our RPI will be in the top 20 and I think we'll be in line for a 5-6 seed.
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  #479  
Old 03-02-2017, 09:06 AM
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99.8%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...s/bracketology
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
99.8%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...s/bracketology

0.1% Chance of winning the NCAAt? So you're saying we have a chance!!!
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  #481  
Old 03-02-2017, 09:15 AM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 View Post
0.1% Chance of winning the NCAAt? So you're saying we have a chance!!!
Give me Big Steve and I'd tell you we have a good chance to win it. We can only hope he helps this team in other ways.
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  #482  
Old 03-02-2017, 09:16 AM
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USA Today has us as a lock and a 7 seed

http://www.bracketwag.com/
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
USA Today has us as a lock and a 7 seed

http://www.bracketwag.com/
On XU:

"Those that really hurt themselves include Xavier. Yep, that's it in my eyes as far as teams that took a severe loss. I really wanted to lock Xavier in about 2 weeks ago but held off as I wanted to see how they'd play without Sumner. They won the first 3 without him but have crashed since then, losing 6 in a row and now they are in serious danger of missing out on the tournament all together. Since Sumner is not coming back for the tourney, the committee will put more emphasis on how Xavier has played without him, and this is not the resume of a tournament team this past month. My gut says if they lose their last game at DePaul, they'll need to get to the Big East finals to remain in contention, they may even need to win it all."
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
On XU:

"Those that really hurt themselves include Xavier. Yep, that's it in my eyes as far as teams that took a severe loss. I really wanted to lock Xavier in about 2 weeks ago but held off as I wanted to see how they'd play without Sumner. They won the first 3 without him but have crashed since then, losing 6 in a row and now they are in serious danger of missing out on the tournament all together. Since Sumner is not coming back for the tourney, the committee will put more emphasis on how Xavier has played without him, and this is not the resume of a tournament team this past month. My gut says if they lose their last game at DePaul, they'll need to get to the Big East finals to remain in contention, they may even need to win it all."
WHO the F'in cares????
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  #485  
Old 03-02-2017, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 View Post
WHO the F'in cares????
I do.
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:36 AM
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Dance Card - up to 21

I know that Dance Card is not for seeding and is to show bid odds overall, but it is interesting that they have us higher than so many other bracket experts...

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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  #487  
Old 03-02-2017, 09:53 AM
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Committee values regular season and conference tournament championships with respect to seeding, regular season more.

If we win 4 more games in a row, a 4 seed is not out of reach similar to 2003 when you put our whole resume together... maybe it lacks marquee wins, but it pops with everything else they love. Including actually "gaining steam" instead of the UCLA version.

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Old 03-02-2017, 09:55 AM
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Look at Dayton's resume at RPI #21 and Purdue's resume at RPI #20. Palm has us as an eight seed and Purdue is a four seed. Totally ridiculous. I used Palm as he tries to predict the committee, not predict what he thinks it should be.
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:05 AM
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Dayton's ceiling (even if win next 4 games) is probably a 6 seed and floor (if lose next 2 games) is probably a 11 seed (yes would make 3 bad losses). The Committee will say do not have the top quality wins (Dayton's top 50 wins are generally 40-50 & Dayton's top 100 wins are generally 80-100). Also advanced metrics indicate a 7/8 seed.

Not saying I agree just saying this is likely what the Committee will do. Only way they do something different is they really look at injuries closely, but even with that UD will not have enough quality wins in their mind.

BTW @GW Saturday, Dayton only 70% chance to win 74-68, this game is almost at tough as VCU home. Road games are tough.
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
We didn't move up as predicted, but VCU moved up to #22, right behind us, with the loss.

We get our first huge top 25 win for the resume.

And if we win out, our RPI will be in the top 20 and I think we'll be in line for a 5-6 seed.
How is that explained? We stay where we were, and VCU loses and leap frogs ND, who won.
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:11 AM
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Up to a 7 in Joe Lundardi's bracket.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:12 AM
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

Up to 7 seed in ESPN's bracketology
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  #493  
Old 03-02-2017, 10:18 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
How is that explained? We stay where we were, and VCU loses and leap frogs ND, who won.
Because these metrics value "good" losses more than they value wins against low teams.
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:20 AM
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There seems to be a ton of weight given to top 25 and top 50 games.

Sos, rpi, bad losses, and the number of losses all seem to take a back seat to top 25 and top 50 games.

And such a policy is inherently biased towards the p5/BE.

I do not see any other explanation for the Dance Card rankings.

Very unfair.



If you go something like 4-10 vs. the top 25 and top 50, the talking heads all say: this is a big time team, they have 4 big time wins.

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  #495  
Old 03-02-2017, 10:28 AM
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There is no way _avier belongs in at this point. Seriously, look at who they have beaten. They have 1 good win against Creighton. Every other team they've beaten is "meh" at best. They've played a bunch of ranked teams and gone 1-7 against them.

We know who they are, they are not very good. It's a crime if they get in with this resume.
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:51 AM
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Xavier's biggest hurdle at this point, is that they'll play back to back games against DePaul. this weekend in Chicago where DePaul is playing their last game at All State Arena (or whatever that dump is called) and again in NYC in the opening round of the BE tournament; I believe both are locked into the 7-10 game. The reward for winning both of those games will be about zilch given how bad DePaul is, the downside is incredibly high and even if they managed to win in the first round (as they should) they likely, if not guaranteed at this point will have to play Butler (or the 2 seed); they could go 2-1 to close out the year and not move the needle one bit. 1-2 or 0-3 or 0-2 and hello NIT, perhaps even CBI depending on how many autobids are given to the NIT. Obviously there are opportunities for them in the BET to secure huge wins and get themselves on the right side of the bubble, but they are looking at just about the worst case scenario they could have to close out the season and help right the ship.
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:51 AM
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I wonder if we win out (beat GW and the A10 tourney) can we get on the 6 Line... I think 5 is too high.
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Old 03-02-2017, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
0-3
0-3 is not possible...lol.

I suppose if they win 1 more, then they could get in, I have no idea...I have to believe going 0-2 against DePaul, leading to an 8 game losing streak and 14 losses would do them in...Dance Card still has them at #40 through yesterday's games, the last team in is #47.
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Old 03-02-2017, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I don't think so, I don't think the Flyers get any real benefit from beating the #200 rpi team at home early in the year, but they could suffer greatly from a loss. Given the conference, I don't think UD will ever find itself in a position similar to Syracuse last year (or potentially this year) with a handful of really high quality wins over protected seed and only a few bad losses, resulting in a 70ish rpi which is the upper edge of the cutoff. I don't think an rpi of 44 vs 41 is going to be a factor at all for UD, it will be about who they lost to, who they beat and were, not the specific rpi number. UD will never get in w/ an rpi of 72 like Cuse did last season.
But what about 2008 or 2015?...if UD is 3-5 spots in the rpi and/or SOS, better or worse, wouldn't that have made a difference?

3-5 spots worse in 2015, and maybe they are out.

3-5 spots better in 2008, and maybe they are in.

The 2008 rpi was 32 I think...hard to leave out rpi #29 or #27.

Last edited by ud2; 03-02-2017 at 11:29 AM..
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Old 03-02-2017, 11:45 AM
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Smile Five is still possible

Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 View Post
I wonder if we win out (beat GW and the A10 tourney) can we get on the 6 Line... I think 5 is too high.
If Flyers do as you describe, I believe a 5 seed is still possible. I doubt there are many other teams that will make a better case for moving up, assuming a win against GW and Atlantic 10 Conference Championship.

How many other teams will be on six week winning streak, have regular season championship and conference tournament championship, with a top 20 RPI, and are currently hanging out in the 5 - 10 seed range? Not too many!

Last edited by Beatty Town Coach; 03-02-2017 at 11:49 AM..
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