Flyers Will Make the NCAA for the 3rd Year in a Row

[ruechalgrin]

After two tough losses where the Flyers fought back after being down early & could never get over the hump, we probably now realize that they are not as good as we hoped (no more talk of a 3 seed and no more talk of a 4 seed unless they win their next 7 straight). But barring a 0-5 finish to the season which sagarin has at about a 1% chance, the Flyers will make the NCAA tourney.

So Dayton is headed for a 5-11 seed barring an absolute collapse. As a Dayton fan, yep we all are fearing reverting to pre-Archie and an absolute collapse. But even with an absolute collapse of 1-4 the rest of the way, I think they sneak in as an 11 seed.

If the Flyers go 3-3 the rest of the way so 24-8 (win @St. Louis, win Rhody, Lose @Richmond, Lose VCU, Win Davidson neutral, and lose St. Joe's neutral), the Flyers will have about a 20-25 RPI (22). http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi Only team ever to be left out with a RPI in the 20s was Missouri State in 2006. http://www.collegerpi.com/subs/rpitrivia.html Dayton would be about 4-4 top 50 and 10-6 top 100 and I think Dayton comes in between 8-10. Remember beating top 10 Iowa on a neutral court will be the gift that keeps giving -- this game was absolutely huge. Also winning @St. Bonnies big as they are about 30-40 in RPI now.

Even if the Flyers go 1-4 the rest of the way so 22-9 (win@St. Louis, lose Rhody, lose @Richmond, lose VCU, lose Davidson neutral), the Flyers will have a RPI of about 29. http://www.rpiforecast.com/cgi-bin/rpiwizard.cgi -- would be about 4-4 top 50 and 8-8 top 100 and I think UD sneaks in as 10/11.

Positively, if the Flyers go 4-2 so 25-7 (win@St. Louis, win Rhody, lose @Richmond, win VCU, win Davidson neutral, lose St. Joe's neutral), the Flyers will have a RPI of about 16 and be like 5-4 top 50 and 11-6 top 100 and like a 6-8 seed.

Really positively, if the Flyers go 5-2 so 26-7 (win@St. Louis, Win Rhody, lose@Richmond, win VCU, win Davidson neutral, win St. Joe's neutral, lose VCU neutral), Flyers will be 5-7 seed.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	St Bonaventure SAINT BONAVENTURE Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[C-time]

You have to look at more than just the RPI. I'm not saying we won't make the tournament but the RPI is not the only metric the committee uses and our numbers are not as good in a lot of those.

Where I think we could be in real trouble is if this slide continues and Pollard doesn't play anymore which sounds very possible from Archie's postgame quotes. Everyone says the committee considers injuries and if Pollard doesn't see the court the rest of the season we could be in trouble.

[Piqua Flyer '66]

BIG step toward the bubble today.
Only way I would feel assured that we will make the NCAA
tourney is if we were in a Bg 5 Conf.
Remember, the BCS rules......kinda like Democrate super delegates!!

[TommyGola]

Frankly, I don't like our chances. We have been exposed in the backcourt on defending the three-ball and in the front court on fouls, depth, rebounds, and slow recovery from hedges. The A-10 has our number.

[TerryK_67]

Is it me, or are you all missing the obvious.... We are the team that CAN'T SHOOT!

[SeasonTicketFan]

Originally Posted by TommyGola Frankly, I don't like our chances. We have been exposed in the backcourt on defending the three-ball and in the front court on fouls, depth, rebounds, and slow recovery from hedges. The A-10 has our number.

11-3 tied for 2nd place and lost with one of our best players out with an injury.

Last two losses were to the team team tied for 2nd and the team in 4th.

I am not sure that the A10 has our number as much as the last two teams were very good teams who played well against us. We were tied under a minute to go in this game while playing poorly and not firing on all cylinders.

There is a need for improvement, but I think the NCAA chances are still good.

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan 11-3 tied for 2nd place and lost with one of our best players out with an injury. Last two losses were to the team team tied for 2nd and the team in 4th. I am not sure that the A10 has our number as much as the last two teams were very good teams who played well against us. We were tied under a minute to go in this game while playing poorly and not firing on all cylinders. There is a need for improvement, but I think the NCAA chances are still good.

The problem is we have a very weak spot in the lineup for about 20 minutes of the game without Pollard being available. Things just don't work well when Sam or Bobby are in there.

If you would've told me earlier in the season that Pollard would miss a lot of games at the end of the season, I would've told you "that would be a shame but AM will have XW and/or Sam ready to fill the hole." That's obviously not the case and I'm very worried.

[ruechalgrin]

Of course don't just look at RPI, key is top 50 wins and road/neutral. Dayton still 5-3 top 50, 8-4 top 100 (really top 75), like 6-3 road/neutral (need to look it up). Committee no longer considers streaks. And if did 9-3 in last 12. And yes only 1 team in the history of RPI with a RPI of 29 or better did not get in and they had I believe 0 top 50 wins and few top 100.

Relax, Dayton is a 6/7 safely right now unless Pollard does not come back. And even if continue bad streak, Dayton's resume very strong.

Should be top 25 in dance card even after loss.

St Joes 25 RPI and St Bonnie's 35. Not bad losses at all.

Dayton is absolutely not on the bubble!
Posted via Mobile Device

[darrylskale]

NIT ,just don't have it with how we are playing.

Does one think we will beat Richmond on the road and VCU at home let alone Rhode Island at home and Pollard is being saved for the NIT or next year.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[Donniex3Era]

As I stated previously, without Pollard we are merely a good team. His inside presence makes us a better than a good team. All four last A-10 games will be tough without him...those Sagarin Ratings I posted will come way down.
We need to step it up AS A TRUE TEAM...

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin Of course don't just look at RPI, key is top 50 wins and road/neutral. Dayton still 5-3 top 50, 8-4 top 100 (really top 75), like 6-3 road/neutral (need to look it up). Committee no longer considers streaks. And if did 9-3 in last 12. And yes only 1 team in the history of RPI with a RPI of 29 or better did not get in and they had I believe 0 top 50 wins and few top 100. Relax, Dayton is a 6/7 safely right now unless Pollard does not come back. And even if continue bad streak, Dayton's resume very strong. Should be top 25 in dance card even after loss. St Joes 25 RPI and St Bonnie's 35. Not bad losses at all. Dayton is absolutely not on the bubble! Posted via Mobile Device

Dayton is absolutely not on the bubble YET!!!

If they lose 3 of 6 games remaining(2 out of 4 regular season and one out of 2 in conference tourney) they will be.

[ScottyExpress]

They are not the team I thought they were, that is for sure, but I was pretty down on them two years ago right before they made their Elite 8 run. In every life a little rain must fall

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by ScottyExpress They are not the team I thought they were, that is for sure, but I was pretty down on them two years ago right before they made their Elite 8 run. In every life a little rain must fall

Two years ago we weren't relying on a freshman and a former walk-on to man up in the paint for 1/2 the game.

[maddog07]

Its it just about making the tourney! Rankings, conference championships and advancing in the NCAA is what we aspire to. These are now compromised and in danger of slipping away.

Pollards absence hurts, but he has virtually absent from a few games earlier when he was largely effective. We've adapted poorly, largely by being reticent to fully use big Steve, and not finding other ways to win. Kyle could be much better used to penetrate off screens, XW would seem an option to take up some of Kp's minutes, at least on d with his athleticism. Coaches have not gotten it done.
Posted via Mobile Device

[TA111]

Originally Posted by maddog07 Its it just about making the tourney! Rankings, conference championships and advancing in the NCAA is what we aspire to. These are now compromised and in danger of slipping away. Pollards absence hurts, but he has virtually absent from a few games earlier when he was largely effective. We've adapted poorly, largely by being reticent to fully use big Steve, and not finding other ways to win. Kyle could be much better used to penetrate off screens, XW would seem an option to take up some of Kp's minutes, at least on d with his athleticism. Coaches have not gotten it done. Posted via Mobile Device

I agree. Using Wehrli is just silly in the paint. You've got big Steve, X and Sam. Much better options.

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by TA111 I agree. Using Wehrli is just silly in the paint. You've got big Steve, X and Sam. Much better options.

As much as I agree it's hard to watch when Wehrli is in the game (although I love his heart), I have to disagree on XW. He is the most athletic but least skilled basketball player I have seen since Al Sicard. He needs to become a much better basketball player if he ever wants to contribute. He certainly is not the answer right now. And with Sam and Steve constantly getting in foul trouble I am assuming AM feels BW is his only option at that point.

[CE80]

With no pollard, if Steve could stay out of foul trouble, BW could be used like last year. 5-8 min per game to spell the Pierre and Steve. Just hold down the fort.
Posted via Mobile Device

[San Diego Flyer]

Last season we made small ball work magic for us. This season we pretended like that would not be needed with the added bench and height. That is fool's gold. We revert to small ball anytime we are in a pinch this season. The rest of them (Sam, Steve, Xeyrius, Ryan) are investments in our future, but SMALL ball remains our default setting.

Unfortunately without Pollard our default setting is now TINY ball. It will be very difficult to get separation both within any given game, and certainly in W's for conference play.

So, prepare for some close, disjointed finishes to games this season until Pollard is playable.
And longer he is out, the tougher his "A" game will be to recoup.

2 cents.

[Canonball]

I believe the Flyers will be in I just wasn't buying the Flyers at 13/15 ranking as fun as it was to see. They are not that complete of a team. Probably shouldn't compare, but the Great 8 team wouldn't have to much difficulty beating this current squad.

That said, the metrics are all pretty much in the Flyers favor, strong OC, RPI, SOS, strong league performance. We'll see what happens down the stretch but barring a complete failure on that end, I think they're still well positioned. For now I think they're on the right side of the bubble but not a lock. 2 losses in the next 3 could certainly jeopardize everything but I just think they'll take care of business.

[UD62]

Options are pretty limited. Freshmen have shown to be ineffective almost all the time, KP is out. Should KP not play again in the regular season we could be in a world of hurt. I'm sure SLU can't wait to avenge their poor performance in Dayton.
The idea that the freshmen are 'sophmores" by March isn't proving out this year. while some may be excellent in later years, improvement this year has been in short supply. So far one of AM's weakest classes. To our credit we got ranked, but our play since then for whatever reasons has been poor. Guess we weren't quite ready for prime time. Isn't the first time, but hopefully will be the last.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[priceg75]

Good Lord, reading this is like being in a support group for abused fans. We're in. We might, MIGHT lose one more. Book it.

[Jeff]

Originally Posted by priceg75 Good Lord, reading this is like being in a support group for abused fans. We're in. We might, MIGHT lose one more. Book it.

Bingo. Social group therapy!

[UD62]

Simply saying the options for AM right now are limited, KD is out and the freshmen are not much help. Do we make the Dance, I believe so, but our current state of affairs leads me to believe it could be a struggle.

[longtimefan67]

What matters most is KP's health at the end of the season and not a season ending injury in late February - which is what the coaching staff is trying to avoid at all costs. The last 4 games will tell us all a lot about how this team can regroup without his presence and hopefully in the end, make them a better team anyway. KP may not be available until post season anyway - and maybe then only limited minutes so I'd rather this team figure out how to play without him now than on March 15th.

[FLYER5]

Dang, we went from pondering multiple national championships to wondering if we'll make the tournament. All in one week. .

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by maddog07 Its it just about making the tourney! Rankings, conference championships and advancing in the NCAA is what we aspire to. These are now compromised and in danger of slipping away. Pollards absence hurts, but he has virtually absent from a few games earlier when he was largely effective. We've adapted poorly, largely by being reticent to fully use big Steve, and not finding other ways to win. Kyle could be much better used to penetrate off screens, XW would seem an option to take up some of Kp's minutes, at least on d with his athleticism. Coaches have not gotten it done. Posted via Mobile Device

How College Basketball Teams are Evaluated:
(3) Making the NCAA
(2) Advancing in the NCAA
(1) Sweet 16s, Elite 8s, Final 4s, National Championships.

Not fair as a certain amount of luck in a single elimination tourney, but coaches, teams, and programs are evaluated this way.

Rankings which I love for branding purposes (and especially recruiting) are a huge drop after the NCAAs.

An even bigger drop is conference championships and conference tournament championships. I honestly could almost care less. In fact, with some nagging injuries like KP this year, I rather not have 3 games in 3 days in the A-10 tourney (assuming we finish the regular season ok and are a lock for the NCAA).

[ud2]

A lot of people seem to be wigging out on here after a couple of losses without Pollard, sheesh, calm down.

[steve]

Originally Posted by TA111 I agree. Using Wehrli is just silly in the paint. You've got big Steve, X and Sam. Much better options.

LOL.. Gee, thx coach. And you would know how exactly that X and Sam are "much" better options? Neither of those guys can guard right now. One is too slow a foot and the other ZERO strength...They don't get to blow the whistle for stoppages when switching from offense to defense.

At least BW is battle-tested..The kid, as little as he shows offensively, was guarding 4's and 5's for almost 35 games last year almost 20 mpg in highly contested games especially in March and he's a hell of alot more mature mentally and physically to guard guys and stay in games..If you don't believe that then just ask Archie..

Right or wrong, AM sees these kids day in and day out...

[Buster Goode]

Wow. Get off the ledge people.

At full strength, I think we can play with anyone.

[rollo]

Originally Posted by Buster Goode Wow. Get off the ledge people. At full strength, I think we can play with anyone.

When will that be??

"Asked Monday during the weekly Atlantic 10 coaches teleconference what Pollard’s chances of playing against St. Louis or on Saturday against Rhode Island at UD Arena, Dayton coach Archie Miller said: “I have no idea, to be honest with you. I don’t ask the trainers or the doctors anymore. I told them to tell me when he’s ready to go for the next step..."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/...dall-po/nqT5S/

I'm not saying I know more than anyone else, but it's quite possible that 'full strength' might be 2017.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[steve]

Originally Posted by rollo When will that be?? "Asked Monday during the weekly Atlantic 10 coaches teleconference what Pollard’s chances of playing against St. Louis or on Saturday against Rhode Island at UD Arena, Dayton coach Archie Miller said: “I have no idea, to be honest with you. I don’t ask the trainers or the doctors anymore. I told them to tell me when he’s ready to go for the next step..." http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/...dall-po/nqT5S/ I'm not saying I know more than anyone else, but it's quite possible that 'full strength' might be 2017.

I like AM's answer much better now than the "he could have played 30 minutes against RI" comment followed up by two DNP's...

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[CE80]

The script on Pollard had changed. Previously, Archie said KP could have gone that night but then the team may be without him for a longer period after. To me that sounded like the doctors/trainers said he could go but collectively (doctors/trainers/coaches) said let's not play him so we can be more assured that he will be healthier down the road - VCU/A10 tourney/NCAA tourney? Now it sounds like the doctors/trainers have not cleared him to play.

[ruechalgrin]

Again, I reiterate Dayton will make its 3rd straight NCAA this year.

[steve]

Originally Posted by CE80 The script on Pollard had changed. Previously, Archie said KP could have gone that night but then the team may be without him for a longer period after. To me that sounded like the doctors/trainers said he could go but collectively (doctors/trainers/coaches) said let's not play him so we can be more assured that he will be healthier down the road - VCU/A10 tourney/NCAA tourney? Now it sounds like the doctors/trainers have not cleared him to play.

I'm betting he plays some Saturday against RI, sits against Richmond, and plays depending once again on recovery against VCU..If that plan should happen with no hiccups then he would get another 5 full days off before the A10 tourney..

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[Alberto Strasse]

I do not think KP will play until the A-10 Tournament Finals if UD makes it there. In preparation
I have three suggestions for Coach Miller. Find a way to have Big Steve stay low on the blocks without useless hedges and tinker with a 2-3 zone defense to protect him from fouling. It would have worked well at SLU as they cannot throw the ball in the ocean. Every pick set by Steve he risks being called for a foul merely because of his size. In man defense the penetrating guards drive to his chest and draw fouls. The third suggestion is to work with the guards (Dyshawn Pierre is excluded because he has good passing skills as does Kendall) on getting the entry pass to Steve over the top and from the wing. Just like a shot fake, fake the bounce pass and lob over the top with Steve turning to catch and finish. As Steve Wolfe said on the SLU broadcast "UD has a future NBA Center and the guards can't get him the ball."
If Henry Finkel had played on this team he would hardly score because of UD's guards poor passing skills. I am very disappointed with Archie's assistant coaches that they have not identified and corrected this team weakness as of yet.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[Phi Psi Flyer '09]

Originally Posted by Alberto Strasse I do not think KP will play until the A-10 Tournament Finals if UD makes it there. In preparation I have three suggestions for Coach Miller. Find a way to have Big Steve stay low on the blocks without useless hedges and tinker with a 2-3 zone defense to protect him from fouling. It would have worked well at SLU as they cannot throw the ball in the ocean. Every pick set by Steve he risks being called for a foul merely because of his size. In man defense the penetrating guards drive to his chest and draw fouls. The third suggestion is to work with the guards (Dyshawn Pierre is excluded because he has good passing skills as does Kendall) on getting the entry pass to Steve over the top and from the wing. Just like a shot fake, fake the bounce pass and lob over the top with Steve turning to catch and finish. As Steve Wolfe said on the SLU broadcast "UD has a future NBA Center and the guards can't get him the ball." If Henry Finkel had played on this team he would hardly score because of UD's guards poor passing skills. I am very disappointed with Archie's assistant coaches that they have not identified and corrected this team weakness as of yet.

3 games left in the conference schedule is not the time to put in a zone defense when the team has not played it all year (or even longer). At this point of the season, a lot of the players are banged up. They aren't going 1000% in practice like in training camp. Its just not realistic. Also, defense isn't nearly the problem. Dayton is a top 15 defensive team in the country. They can't put the ball in the hoop.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by Alberto Strasse I do not think KP will play until the A-10 Tournament Finals if UD makes it there. In preparation I have three suggestions for Coach Miller. Find a way to have Big Steve stay low on the blocks without useless hedges and tinker with a 2-3 zone defense to protect him from fouling. It would have worked well at SLU as they cannot throw the ball in the ocean. Every pick set by Steve he risks being called for a foul merely because of his size. In man defense the penetrating guards drive to his chest and draw fouls. The third suggestion is to work with the guards (Dyshawn Pierre is excluded because he has good passing skills as does Kendall) on getting the entry pass to Steve over the top and from the wing. Just like a shot fake, fake the bounce pass and lob over the top with Steve turning to catch and finish. As Steve Wolfe said on the SLU broadcast "UD has a future NBA Center and the guards can't get him the ball." If Henry Finkel had played on this team he would hardly score because of UD's guards poor passing skills. I am very disappointed with Archie's assistant coaches that they have not identified and corrected this team weakness as of yet.

Actually, it wasn't just getting the ball to Steve inside, they couldn't get it to Pierre on the inside either. That was ridiculous. Pierre's only way of getting it inside was the dribble drive. The problem I see, that wasn't there earlier is this team is not making the quick crisp passes through their possessions like they did earlier.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[San Diego Flyer]

Originally Posted by rollo When will that be?? "Asked Monday during the weekly Atlantic 10 coaches teleconference what Pollard’s chances of playing against St. Louis or on Saturday against Rhode Island at UD Arena, Dayton coach Archie Miller said: “I have no idea, to be honest with you. I don’t ask the trainers or the doctors anymore. I told them to tell me when he’s ready to go for the next step..." http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/...dall-po/nqT5S/ I'm not saying I know more than anyone else, but it's quite possible that 'full strength' might be 2017.

I think we are in violent agreement. We won't be the team that was staring down a 3/4 seed. Will not have the upside that we had with Kendall. Said it before we are faced with a gauntlet of opponents that make sure wins will be ugly (if at all). Not to mention the opponents now have a closet full of recordings of how LaSalle, St louis, Miami, et al. let the air out of the ball and packed the lane.

Last night was like water boarding, and it won't be the last one. Hold on to your seats fans. This is not a cardgame of Bridge. You can't "pass" because you don't like the hand your were dealt.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[TerryK_67]

Originally Posted by Smitty10 Actually, it wasn't just getting the ball to Steve inside, they couldn't get it to Pierre on the inside either. That was ridiculous. Pierre's only way of getting it inside was the dribble drive. The problem I see, that wasn't there earlier is this team is not making the quick crisp passes through their possessions like they did earlier.

Hard to find a lane to pass through when the 5 defenders are all with 15 feet of the basket...... there is really only one way that I know of to loosen that up ....

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09 3 games left in the conference schedule is not the time to put in a zone defense when the team has not played it all year (or even longer). At this point of the season, a lot of the players are banged up. They aren't going 1000% in practice like in training camp. Its just not realistic. Also, defense isn't nearly the problem. Dayton is a top 15 defensive team in the country. They can't put the ball in the hoop.

Defense is not the problem. Dayton is now #12 in the country according to kenpom in defense -- this is the highest level ever under Archie by far and 2nd best after 2010 team which was #7 in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Don't mess with it even to keep Steve in the game.

Archie will fix the offense before the NCAAs start.

Also Dayton will revert to the mean in 3 point shooting the next 5+ games which is about 35% for the year. Cooke, Pierre, etc. will get going from 3 again.

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by TerryK_67 Hard to find a lane to pass through when the 5 defenders are all with 15 feet of the basket...... there is really only one way that I know of to loosen that up ....

I don't think the 3 ball isn't going because they've all gone cold, I think it's not going because they are all rushing it. Pretty close to every three they've missed in the past 2 games or more I've called a miss before even seeing the rim. You can just tell by the way they shot it and the shots were rushed.

This is happening because the defense is closing in on their shots quicker which is also a result of the slow movement of the ball. So slow movement of ball, defense looks quicker going inside or outside.

[steve]

LOL...What's the difference in how someone is "cold"? The bottom line is they're something like 20-85 or something like that in the last 4-5 games..That's called COLD!

Doesn't matter if they're rushing it, not squaring up, shooting on the way down, etc....It all follows under the term cold. Yes, they're all cold at the same time..Teams pack it down because they have only 1 very good shooter this year from 3 and another 1-2 who can hit a few..All these guys are missing wide-open 3's..

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by steve LOL...What's the difference in how someone is "cold"? The bottom line is they're something like 20-85 or something like that in the last 4-5 games..That's called COLD! Doesn't matter if they're rushing it, not squaring up, shooting on the way down, etc....It all follows under the term cold. Yes, they're all cold at the same time..Teams pack it down because they have only 1 very good shooter this year from 3 and another 1-2 who can hit a few..All these guys are missing wide-open 3's..

Read the flippin point. They are wide open with defenders closing in. But since my point was that they aren't moving the ball well, let's see you defend that they are. There is a reason they are cold okay? That's because they're not getting the great passes that allow them open enough to get square and shoot their normal stroke.

Again, my point is ball movement is causing it.

[Canonball]

Originally Posted by Buster Goode Wow. Get off the ledge people. At full strength, I think we can play with anyone.

Even SLU evidently!!

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[ruechalgrin]

Repeat after me - the Flyers are a lock for their 3rd straight NCAA. Even if lose the next 2, 23-8 and Dayton is in.

Now all about seed and momentum.

[Tony T 71]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin Repeat after me - the Flyers are a lock for their 3rd straight NCAA. Even if lose the next 2, 23-8 and Dayton is in. Now all about seed and momentum.

Not so fast my friend, one more win locks us in. 2 losses puts us in the hands of the committee

[ruechalgrin]

Tony T, sorry but about 15-20 teams would have to pass Dayton in their resume the next 1.5 weeks, not happening. Dayton a lock even losing out.

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin Tony T, sorry but about 15-20 teams would have to pass Dayton in their resume the next 1.5 weeks, not happening. Dayton a lock even losing out.

Moot point, they will not lose out!

[JimBo]

I remember hearing they were a lock last year at this time, and they ended up being the last team in.

Just beat VCU.

[Buster Goode]

Hey, what do you know, we have a full team and we win. What a novel trend.

[steve]

Originally Posted by JimBo I remember hearing they were a lock last year at this time, and they ended up being the last team in. Just beat VCU.

Agreed more with you prior to last nights game but after the W it's as close to 100% as can be..Gotta beat VCU to take the needed confidence into the A10 tourney to win that SOB...

[ruechalgrin]

Last year Dance Card had Dayton 2nd team left out but most people thought 10/11 seed. Only 1-3 top 50 and ok road record. This year dance card will have Dayton about 18 on next update (like 25 spots ahead of last year) and 3-3 or 4-4 likely top 50 with a lot of wins in 51-70 range.

Dayton is a lock.
Posted via Mobile Device

[CE80]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin Dayton is a lock. Posted via Mobile Device

Now I agree. Had we lost last night, against VCU and one in done in A10 tourney, gun to my head, I would have bet we would still be in. That said, I am very happy to not see what would have happened.

Only concern now is what are we going to be able to get out of Pollard going forward.

[PinehurstFlyer]

Statistically, based on the whole season, we are a lock. Realistically (that is, add in the whims of the Committee) I am not so sure. Does anyone know how much they will weigh the last 10 games? If we lose 5 out of our last 7 games the Committee may say this is not an NCAA team. Especially when they see who we lost to, and then review our two wins during that stretch - not exactly impressive wins even though last night they actually played well.
So, unless someone tells me that the last 10, or 12, no longer matter, I will be a bit nervous without another win.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by PinehurstFlyer Statistically, based on the whole season, we are a lock. Realistically (that is, add in the whims of the Committee) I am not so sure. Does anyone know how much they will weigh the last 10 games? If we lose 5 out of our last 7 games the Committee may say this is not an NCAA team. Especially when they see who we lost to, and then review our two wins during that stretch - not exactly impressive wins even though last night they actually played well. So, unless someone tells me that the last 10, or 12, no longer matter, I will be a bit nervous without another win.

I thought the last 10 games metric was taken out a couple of years ago.

[longtimefan]

Originally Posted by CE80 I thought the last 10 games metric was taken out a couple of years ago.

It was, unless they want to use it against a non-power team. It would be the opposite of "gaining steam." I can hear the chairman now, "They had a good resume, but they were losing steam toward the end of the season."

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by CE80 I thought the last 10 games metric was taken out a couple of years ago.

It was but they covered themselves by saying in some instances they use the eye test to seed teams...so if the eye test says this team is not playing well right now then the seed might be lower than the overall resume says.

[UDFlyer23]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Dance Card is updated, once you take out Louisville they have the Flyers as the first 6 seed, 27 teams above the cut line.

We are a lock. It doesn't matter if we lose the next 2 games and multiple bids are stolen. This is not the same situation as last year. Our resume is light years better than it was at the end of last season. Dance Card and KPI (I believe we are 20th currently) are proven to be the most accurate when seeding teams.

Playing for seed now and hoping that Pollard stays healthy enough to help us make a run.

[Piqua Flyer '66]

Nothing is sure with so many BIG5 teams sitting on the bubble and they get the preference from selexction comm........can you say BCS. I see ND is a lock - are you kidding me??!!
Maybe likely - but a lock????

[rollo]

It looks like the Play-In games are going to include some familiar teams...definitely worth the price of admission.

[ruechalgrin]

KPI most accurate in seeding. Dayton #20 or last 5 seed now.

http://www.kpisports.net/2015/03/18/...curacy-of-kpi/