Which long-shot team could be college basketball's Rich Strike, win 2023 NCAA Tournament

[udx2]

From CBS Sports:

Which long-shot team could be college basketball's Rich Strike, win 2023 NCAA Tournament
By David Cobb

The parallels between college basketball and horse racing are minimal, but one trait both sports share is that their fanbases each love to bet on underdogs. It was less than two months ago when the nation began falling in love with Saint Peter's as the No. 15 seed Peacocks made a miraculous run that began with an all-time-great upset of Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Anyone who wagered on Saint Peter's during its legendary march to the Elite Eight embraced the Peacocks' underdog status in each game they won. But Saint Peter's couldn't win it all like Rich Strike did on Saturday in the Kentucky Derby. With 80-1 odds, Rich Strike came from behind to win and became the second-biggest long shot to ever capture the Kentucky Derby.

Could a team with such long odds in this era of college basketball win the national title? While the NCAA Tournament regularly produces unexpected deep runs from poorly seeded teams, it's usually a big name that ends up hoisting the trophy in the end. With the help of early national title odds from Caesars Sportsbook, our writers are looking ahead to the 2022-23 season and paying homage to Rich Strike by picking the team with odds of 80-1 or worse who they think could capture the national title trophy next season.

Here are the picks from CBS Sports college basketball experts Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander, Kyle Boone and David Cobb.

Dayton
Odds: 150-1

I obviously don't believe any team with 80-1 odds (or worse) is winning a national title. It's possible but improbable. That said, I'll go with Dayton because the Flyers are the highest-ranked team in my Top 25 And 1 that meets this question's criteria. They're 100-1 to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament -- but I like them better than that. Dayton is returning the top five scorers from a team that was literally the last to be cut from the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Four of those players -- among them former top-100 high school prospect DaRon Holmes, who averaged a team-high 12.8 points and 6.1 rebounds -- were freshmen who will be sophomores. If they develop and grow together properly, the Flyers should compete with Saint Louis at the top of the Atlantic 10. -- Gary Parrish

Providence
Odds: 100-1

It's hard to envision anyone that's +7000 or worse winning the 2023 title, but then: that's the point of this post. Gimme Ed Cooley's guys. The Friars are coming off their first regular-season Big East title in program history, a Sweet 16 run for the first time under Cooley and will bring back Jared Bynum. Louisville's Noah Locke (9.6 ppg), South Carolina's Devin Carter (9.0 ppg) and Kentucky's Bryce Hopkins (a paltry 2.1 ppg) could easily transition to having big-time transfer seasons the way Al Durham and Noah Horchler did last season. The Big East will also be a bit more for the taking next season. Creighton is probably the favorite, but Villanova will be more of an unknown in '22-23 than at any point in the past decade. Program momentum is there, and it's not hard to see the Friars getting a 5-seed or better again. They're my Rich Strike candidate. Speaking of that, there might not be a coach I'd rather see work the track than Cooley. -- Matt Norlander

LSU
Odds: 150-1

LSU fired Will Wade just before the 2022 NCAA Tournament and shrewdly snagged Matt McMahon from Murray State. Since his arrival, McMahon has effectively made LSU the Murray State of the South -- but in the most endearing way possible -- by grabbing transfer commitments from three of the Racers' top four scorers last season on a team that went 31-3 and did not lose in Ohio Valley Conference play. LSU also has two top-100 incoming recruits and three other committed transfers in NC State's Cam Hayes, Mississippi State's Derek Fountain and Northwestern State's Kendal Coleman. The Tigers are a total wild card -- how Murray State's talent transfers up is a question, and replacing effectively the entire roster is a major unknown -- but McMahon is a revered tactician who appears to be starting with a clean slate in Baton Rouge. If the unknowns become knowns, and good knowns at that, then LSU could emerge out of nowhere from an interesting program on the come-up to a real contender next season. -- Kyle Boone

Miami
Odds: 150-1

If coach Jim Larranaga can foster some depth out of the youthful back half of his roster, his team could build off its 2022 success and be a dark horse national contender next season. The Hurricanes are losing a couple of studs from their Elite Eight team in Kam McGusty and Charlie Moore. But with the help of booster John Ruiz, they have landed two of the top-ranked transfers this offseason in former Kansas State guard Nijel Pack and ex-Arkansas State forward Norchad Omier.

Star guard Isaiah Wong is coming back after threatening to leave if his NIL compensation wasn't increased. He's expected to be joined by veteran contributors Anthony Walker and Jordan Miller. Those three, combined with the two big-time incoming transfers, give Miami a formidable and experienced starting five. Replacing the rim protection provided by graduated big man Sam Waardenburg will be among the hurdles. But if four-star freshman center Favour Aire can help out, this team can be in the hunt even with odds that currently sit at 150-1. -- David Cobb

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[UncleFester]

I bet my boss $50 in 2020 Dayton would be a final 4 team in ‘23 or ‘24.
He is now concerned, although the money doesn’t phase us, just the pride.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Smitty10]

It'll never happen The Kentucky Derby is the equivalent of one possession in basketball. And any basketball team can win a possession against any other. But to win the National Championship, you have to win the most possessions for 6 straight games, assuming you get there to begin with.

What happened in this years Derby is that an unprecedented pace was set early and all the key players were gassed coming down the stretch. I think Rich Strike ran the last 1/4th of a mile in 22 and change(which is good, but it's just that he was able to do it late while taking it easy early. None of the other horses that he caught did better than 25 and change. That's 3 seconds which equates to more than 15 lengths. That's terrible.

Let's say the super fast pace is equivalent to a heavy underdog basketball team coming out and surprisingly playing full court pressure from the get go to get a quick 10 point lead. The coach calls timeout and readjusts for it and the game goes on and favorite probably comes back and wins. There's no timeouts in horseracing to adjust.

[jack72]

To say it is like one possession is way understated. It would be more like that horse winning the Triple Crown.

[ClaytonFlyerFan]

Originally Posted by jack72 To say it is like one possession is way understated. It would be more like that horse winning the Triple Crown.

The way Rich Strike was so strong down the stretch it is possible, especially at Belmont.

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan The way Rich Strike was so strong down the stretch it is possible, especially at Belmont.

Doubt it. He wasn't as strong down the stretch as he looked. When the best of the others are running 25 and something, it just looks that way. And there's no way the pace will come close to that hot on the 1.5 big sandy.

But as far as if he would win the TC, that still wouldn't compare to a St. Peter or other comparables winning the championship. Lots of the best from the Derby will not bother with the Preakness(they feel if their not going to win the TC they aren't going to put their horses through a brutal 2 week turnaround). And then, when it comes to Belmont, many just aren't made to get the extra 1/4 mile. So if he's much better than expected and not a fluke, he could win the triple crown by default.

[ClaytonFlyerFan]

Originally Posted by Smitty10 Not going to happen. He wasn't that strong down the stretch as he looked. When the best of the others are running 25 and something, it just looks that way. And there's no way the pace will come close to that hot on the 1.5 big sandy.

Yep, not gonna happen that an 80-1 horse will win the Kentucky Derby either

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan Yep, not gonna happen that an 80-1 horse will win the Kentucky Derby either

80-1 doesn't surprise me. Derby's had huge long shots win all the time. But one that's only win came in a 30 thousand maiden claimer 8 months ago as a 2 year old, and only got in the field due to a last second scratch, that's unbelievable. But as I said, when the pace setters run 21 and 3 in the 1st quarter, weird crap will happen and it did (that first quarter was an all time derby record). I will bet that this horse does not beat Epicenter again, ever.

The leaders in the stretch finished the final quarter in over 25 seconds, that's awful, pitiful, ridiculously slow (I don't know how many ways I can put it. Rich Strike ran it in a decent 22 and 3, that's 15 lengths which looks like he's flying when he's just running a good final sprint to the finish while the rest are crawling home.

A math lesson for you. Secretariat has the all time derby record at 1:59 and 4 The first quarter was run at 21 and 3. Multiply that out time 5 (5 quarters = a mile and quarter which is the Derby) and the comes out at 108 seconds which is a 1:48 (a good time for a mile and an 1/8 but no horse will ever do it in 1 and 1/4.

If someone ever runs 1:48 in Derby that would beat secretariat by 59 lengths.

Rich Strike ran it at over 2:02 which is respectable but not exceptional. He would've lost to Secretariat by over 11 lengths.

[hawkoooo]

Originally Posted by Smitty10 He wasn't that strong down the stretch as he looked.

Lol...what.

[UDGutter2]

No, he wasn't that strong down the stretch, just 10 times stronger than every other horse in the field. But if they had a cheetah in the race, Rich Strike wouldn't have won.

[UDGutter2]

I don't know horse racing. But I do know not every race or every track is the same from day to day. I never said RS was strong down the strength, just that RS was many times stronger than every other horse on that track that day. Would Secretariat have won? Most likely.

[ClaytonFlyerFan]

Originally Posted by UDGutter2 I don't know horse racing. But I do know not every race or every track is the same from day to day. I never said RS was strong down the strength, just that RS was many times stronger than every other horse on that track that day. Would Secretariat have won? Most likely.

Yep, Secretariat would have been the Glue that held the field together at the start..

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by UDGutter2 I don't know horse racing. But I do know not every race or every track is the same from day to day. I never said RS was strong down the strength, just that RS was many times stronger than every other horse on that track that day. Would Secretariat have won? Most likely.

Believe me, I wasn't adding the numbers to say Secretariat would win, I was trying to give some context to it and the early fractions. Secretariat would've won at 3 years old period. Secretariat is the only horse, ever, that could run 3/4 faster than they did in this derby and not give up the lead. He had a giant heart literally and was a freak that could pull it off. Secretariat was a super horse. Rich Strike is a decent horse that got lucky to run in a race with suicidal fractions.

[UD62]

Rich Strike is passing on the Preakness.

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by UD62 Rich Strike is passing on the Preakness.

Good for him. Saving him the embarrassment of proving what a fluke the Derby was.

Belmont will be interesting, because he's probably got enough stamina to finish in the money, but he will not have the kick to pass the others like they're standing still like he did at Churchill. Mo Denegal will probably finish in front of him at Belmont as he's better. Problem for him is he got stuck in the one hole and closers can't win out of the one hole.

[udx2]

The strong recognition of the Flyers that we are seeing is the real message to me was the reason for sharing.

[Medford]

Back during the "season of 6" CBS sports did a "night court report" or something like that where they'd have a daily run down of anything noteworthy that happened in college hoops the night before. It was manned by a couple of different reporters, Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander, Jon Rothstein and maybe one other, each taking different days if the week. All 3 were still fairly young and upcoming reporters plus cbs sports was fairly new at the time and if you were really into college hoops it was a great read on the national landscape. I always felt that group at CBS was extremely impressed how those 6 scholarship players could consistently put up great performances night after night. In a world that covers a ton of UK, Duke and UNC, it had to be fun to be a national writer looking for a different angle to watch and follow that UD team and I believe that team left a strong impression on them. Even an otherwise ho-hum victory over Fordham would show up in the night court just to note again how UD and Archie were doing this with only 6 scholarship players.


Fast forward a few years and you had the Obi lead team, which was a ton of fun. Gary Parrish has a pretty good handle on the world of college hoops, he knows and talks about more than just Kentucky, Duke and Kansas and he was onto Obi before most, if not all national writers during his freshman season. His sophomore season he was singing UD's praises before Mauii which opened the eyes of the rest of the national reporting media.


Sure would be nice if his early preaching on UD's upcoming squad could lead to a similar type season as we had back then (just with out the Covid Cancellations please). This team has a ton of potential and could be very fun to watch. Could DaRon develop into a lottery pick in a year? Can Mali stay healthy and provide Crutcher type leadership? Can Camara do a bit of everything and show off the skills he displayed mid season forward? Can they share the ball without hesitation and buy into "the team" If those things can happen, its possible this team could be every bit as good as that team. He's to dreaming...

	Fordham FORDHAM Fordham University is an independent Jesuit university established in 1841 as St. John's College on old Rose Hill Manor in the village of Fordham, then part of Westchester County in the Bronx, NY. The name Fordham is derived from the Anglo-Saxon words "ford" and "ham," meaning a wading place or ford by a settlement. Rose Hill is the name given to the site in 1787 by Robert Watts, a wealthy New York merchant, in honor of his family's ancestral home of the same name in Scotland. The College was originally staffed by diocesan clergy. The name was officially changed to Fordham University in 1907. Fordham's 10 schools enroll 14,448 students. There are 7,652 undergraduates, of whom 3,842 live in University-managed housing either on-campus or in the local community. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams. Athletic claim to fame is consistent mediocrity in nearly all sports and few A10 title winning programs.