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View Poll Results: How many wins will it take to dance including A-10 tourny?
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22
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5 |
5.95% |
23
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4 |
4.76% |
24
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30 |
35.71% |
25
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27 |
32.14% |
26
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14 |
16.67% |
27
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4 |
4.76% |
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07-14-2008, 07:17 PM
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How Many Will It Take
HOW MANY WILL IT TAKE FOR YOU TO FEEL SAFE!!
We all have our opinions on the current schedule and that is fine ...
My question is how many total wins (including A-10 tourny) will it take to dance this season with the current schedule?
(Take into account all factors, SOS, RPI, Quality Wins, etc)
2008 OOC Schedule
v. Wofford
v. Deleware St.
v. Bethune-Cookman
v. Mercer
(nuetral) Auburn
(nuetral) Marquette
v. Troy
@ Akron
@ Creighton
v. Coppin State
v. UNC Greensboro
v. Marshall
v. George Mason
@ Toledo
v. Miami
2009 A-10 Portion (no order)
v. Duquense
@ Duquense
v. SLU
@ SLU
v. Xavier
@ Xavier
v. Fordham
@ Charlotte
v. Richmond
@ GW
v. St. Bonny
@ La Salle
v. St. Joe's
@ UMASS
v. Temple
@ Rhode Island
Last edited by Binnie Bombs 33; 07-14-2008 at 07:23 PM..
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07-14-2008, 07:24 PM
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General of the Air Force
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I voted 24 but how you finish is also important supposedly. If you are 11-1 in your last 12 games that looks a lot better than limping to the finish line.
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07-14-2008, 08:15 PM
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I thought 24 at first ... but I changed it to 25 ... because I did not feel safe at 24, I feel that is a bubble number.
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07-14-2008, 09:49 PM
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Colonel
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I think it comes down to finishing in the top 4 of the A10 and then making the finals. To be in, 24 to 25 wins. 25 should be a no argument call by the committee. But there are a lot of other factors such as how well the entire field has done and if we get slammed by X and Marq. etc. We obviously won't get many breaks from the NCAA committee.
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07-15-2008, 07:06 AM
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I went for 26 for no other reason than is also means we'll have single digit losses. With 31 games and hopefully 3 A10 games, we'll play at least 34 games. 24-10 looks more like a Bengals score (loss) than an NCAA team. Give me 26-8 and the semis of the A10 and I think we're in as a 10-seed....probably out west.....playing the 11:45 pm game....on Thursday.
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
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07-15-2008, 08:38 AM
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If we take care of business OOC and end up top 4 in the A-10 with at least 3 games in the tourney we will be fine whatever that adds up to.
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07-15-2008, 01:22 PM
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Lieutenant Colonel
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With this schedule, anything less than 25 is NIT in my opinion (including conference tournament). Depressing...
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07-15-2008, 02:06 PM
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Colonel
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26 total with the distribution just as important. 12 nonconf 12 conf 2 A10tourney
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07-15-2008, 05:48 PM
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Furio, i'd agree with that-provided that we beat two out of the three of marquette, creighton and auburn and don't lose to any of the stinkers on our schedule. We're going to need to be very strong in conference and near flawless out of conference. I hope our boys are up to it.
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07-15-2008, 10:32 PM
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This poll is flawed because we don't have a choice of "28" or "29" wins. Seriously -- it might take that many wins to dance nexy year.
How so? Well, if there are a flock of BCS teams next year with 19 or 20 overall wins and 500 records in their conferences, it could easily take that many wins for a non-BCS team like the Flyers to dance. "Cause you know, those BCS teams just pass 'the eyeball test' really well."
Think that's over the top? What if this time last year I'd told you the Flyers would have an RPI in the low 30s at end of the '08 season and that they wouldn't make the dance. Not even close. You all would have said I was crazy. And I probably would have had to agree.
I just want you all to remember this: Never, never, ever underestimate the stinking raw greed of the BCS schools. They'll do whatever they have to get the money.
Last edited by bobber; 07-15-2008 at 10:35 PM..
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07-15-2008, 10:56 PM
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Originally Posted by bobber
Think that's over the top? What if this time last year I'd told you the Flyers would have an RPI in the low 30s at end of the '08 season and that they wouldn't make the dance. Not even close. You all would have said I was crazy. And I probably would have had to agree.
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But if you had also told us that UD would finish the season 7-9 in their last 16 games, 8-8 in the A-10, and finish tied for 7th in the A-10, we probably would have believed you.
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07-15-2008, 11:57 PM
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Yeah, but if we'd been a BCS team under the same circumstances, what then? Think we'd have been on the outside looking in? I can hear Dicky V now.
"Ohhhh. They got a bad breaaaak. Lots of players injured. Brian Gregory, he must be going crazeeee! This was.....IS... a tournament team. They deserve it, baybeeee!!"
Last edited by bobber; 07-16-2008 at 12:01 AM..
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07-16-2008, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by bobber
This poll is flawed because we don't have a choice of "28" or "29" wins. Seriously -- it might take that many wins to dance nexy year.
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It's also flawed becasue it doesn't have 4 - which is all they need if those four are in the A10 tournament
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07-16-2008, 01:31 PM
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Lieutenant Colonel
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Auburn was not good last year (lost last 10 out of 12) and will have to improve vastly for a victory over them to mean anything.
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07-16-2008, 02:48 PM
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I know that they're not good, but they're most likely athletic enough to compete (and potentially beat) anybody. I think if we lose to them, we need to beat marquette and creighton to show that we can play with the big boys.
There's also a lot of little underappreciated landmines in this schedule that the committee will not look kindly upon should we trip on them.
@akron
@toledo
marshall
uncg
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07-16-2008, 08:57 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by bobber
I just want you all to remember this: Never, never, ever underestimate the stinking raw greed of the BCS schools. They'll do whatever they have to get the money.
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I think this is very true, the tail wags the dog in the NCAA now.
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07-21-2008, 08:54 AM
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24 to FEEL safe. 23 and a top 50 RPI and I don't think they'd snub us 2 years in a row, despite lack of sched strength.
11-4 OOC
11-5 Conf
2-1 Tourney
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