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  #1  
Old 01-02-2023, 01:09 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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2023 Atlantic 10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Probabilities Through games of 1/1:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            67.39% 19.31%  7.24%  3.22%  1.47%  0.71%  0.35%  0.16%  0.08%  0.04%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.57    97.15% 99.94%
Saint Louis       17.78% 29.33% 18.66% 12.19%  8.15%  5.38%  3.47%  2.15%  1.36%  0.78%  0.42%  0.20%  0.09%  0.09%  0.03%        3.25    77.97% 98.48%
George Mason       4.38% 13.38% 17.23% 16.22% 13.69% 10.99%  8.11%  5.88%  4.00%  2.70%  1.71%  0.94%  0.51%  0.51%  0.21%        4.94    51.22% 93.89%
Richmond           3.76% 11.94% 14.75% 14.42% 13.19% 11.25%  8.89%  7.05%  5.22%  3.77%  2.56%  1.60%  0.94%  0.94%  0.48%        5.42    44.87% 90.47%
Duquesne           1.61%  8.71% 13.26% 14.20% 13.88% 12.10% 10.21%  8.08%  6.17%  4.52%  3.19%  2.08%  1.18%  1.18%  0.60%        5.90    37.78% 88.22%
VCU                3.17%  8.58% 11.29% 12.50% 12.61% 11.90% 10.28%  8.57%  6.71%  5.18%  3.83%  2.59%  1.65%  1.65%  0.88%        6.14    35.54% 85.61%
St. Bonaventure    0.66%  2.67%  5.11%  7.06%  8.64% 10.01% 11.08% 11.19% 10.65%  9.51%  7.93%  6.45%  4.77%  4.77%  2.96%        8.20    15.49% 67.05%
Davidson           0.33%  2.17%  4.26%  6.53%  8.68% 10.63% 11.67% 12.10% 11.25%  9.84%  8.04%  6.03%  4.37%  4.37%  2.76%        8.24    13.29% 67.62%
Massachusetts      0.58%  2.27%  4.01%  6.10%  7.56%  9.03% 10.38% 10.81% 10.51%  9.93%  8.85%  7.51%  5.89%  5.89%  4.26%        8.66    12.96% 61.24%
George Washington  0.21%  0.89%  2.04%  3.20%  4.62%  6.05%  7.61%  9.19% 10.63% 11.25% 11.42% 10.58%  9.55%  9.55%  7.83%        9.97     6.34% 44.44%
Loyola Chicago     0.08%  0.34%  0.89%  1.62%  2.57%  3.82%  5.48%  7.00%  8.96% 10.82% 12.27% 13.12% 12.74% 12.74% 11.69%       10.95     2.93% 30.76%
Fordham            0.03%  0.17%  0.46%  0.99%  1.65%  2.58%  3.93%  5.54%  7.45%  9.40% 11.45% 13.29% 14.64% 14.64% 15.19%       11.55     1.65% 22.80%
Rhode Island       0.02%  0.14%  0.41%  0.86%  1.54%  2.71%  4.01%  5.59%  7.39%  9.04% 10.74% 13.03% 14.34% 14.34% 15.60%       11.57     1.42% 22.68%
Saint Joseph's     0.01%  0.10%  0.34%  0.77%  1.43%  2.27%  3.47%  4.85%  6.62%  8.74% 10.98% 12.92% 15.37% 15.37% 16.34%       11.76     1.21% 19.86%
La Salle           0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.14%  0.33%  0.56%  1.06%  1.83%  2.99%  4.50%  6.61%  9.64% 13.98% 13.98% 21.15%       12.79     0.19%  6.96%
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  #2  
Old 01-02-2023, 01:35 PM
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This is absurd.
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Old 01-02-2023, 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/1:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            67.39% 19.31%  7.24%  3.22%  1.47%  0.71%  0.35%  0.16%  0.08%  0.04%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.57    97.15% 99.94%
Saint Louis       17.78% 29.33% 18.66% 12.19%  8.15%  5.38%  3.47%  2.15%  1.36%  0.78%  0.42%  0.20%  0.09%  0.09%  0.03%        3.25    77.97% 98.48%
George Mason       4.38% 13.38% 17.23% 16.22% 13.69% 10.99%  8.11%  5.88%  4.00%  2.70%  1.71%  0.94%  0.51%  0.51%  0.21%        4.94    51.22% 93.89%
Richmond           3.76% 11.94% 14.75% 14.42% 13.19% 11.25%  8.89%  7.05%  5.22%  3.77%  2.56%  1.60%  0.94%  0.94%  0.48%        5.42    44.87% 90.47%
Duquesne           1.61%  8.71% 13.26% 14.20% 13.88% 12.10% 10.21%  8.08%  6.17%  4.52%  3.19%  2.08%  1.18%  1.18%  0.60%        5.90    37.78% 88.22%
VCU                3.17%  8.58% 11.29% 12.50% 12.61% 11.90% 10.28%  8.57%  6.71%  5.18%  3.83%  2.59%  1.65%  1.65%  0.88%        6.14    35.54% 85.61%
St. Bonaventure    0.66%  2.67%  5.11%  7.06%  8.64% 10.01% 11.08% 11.19% 10.65%  9.51%  7.93%  6.45%  4.77%  4.77%  2.96%        8.20    15.49% 67.05%
Davidson           0.33%  2.17%  4.26%  6.53%  8.68% 10.63% 11.67% 12.10% 11.25%  9.84%  8.04%  6.03%  4.37%  4.37%  2.76%        8.24    13.29% 67.62%
Massachusetts      0.58%  2.27%  4.01%  6.10%  7.56%  9.03% 10.38% 10.81% 10.51%  9.93%  8.85%  7.51%  5.89%  5.89%  4.26%        8.66    12.96% 61.24%
George Washington  0.21%  0.89%  2.04%  3.20%  4.62%  6.05%  7.61%  9.19% 10.63% 11.25% 11.42% 10.58%  9.55%  9.55%  7.83%        9.97     6.34% 44.44%
Loyola Chicago     0.08%  0.34%  0.89%  1.62%  2.57%  3.82%  5.48%  7.00%  8.96% 10.82% 12.27% 13.12% 12.74% 12.74% 11.69%       10.95     2.93% 30.76%
Fordham            0.03%  0.17%  0.46%  0.99%  1.65%  2.58%  3.93%  5.54%  7.45%  9.40% 11.45% 13.29% 14.64% 14.64% 15.19%       11.55     1.65% 22.80%
Rhode Island       0.02%  0.14%  0.41%  0.86%  1.54%  2.71%  4.01%  5.59%  7.39%  9.04% 10.74% 13.03% 14.34% 14.34% 15.60%       11.57     1.42% 22.68%
Saint Joseph's     0.01%  0.10%  0.34%  0.77%  1.43%  2.27%  3.47%  4.85%  6.62%  8.74% 10.98% 12.92% 15.37% 15.37% 16.34%       11.76     1.21% 19.86%
La Salle           0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.14%  0.33%  0.56%  1.06%  1.83%  2.99%  4.50%  6.61%  9.64% 13.98% 13.98% 21.15%       12.79     0.19%  6.96%
This is like predicting the odds on who will win the World Series in 2030?
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Old 01-02-2023, 03:40 PM
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Love it! It will be fun watching this progress throughout the season.
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  #5  
Old 01-02-2023, 03:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Don View Post
This is like predicting the odds on who will win the World Series in 2030?
KC Royals.
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  #6  
Old 01-02-2023, 03:59 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/1:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            67.39% 19.31%  7.24%  3.22%  1.47%  0.71%  0.35%  0.16%  0.08%  0.04%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.57    97.15% 99.94%
Saint Louis       17.78% 29.33% 18.66% 12.19%  8.15%  5.38%  3.47%  2.15%  1.36%  0.78%  0.42%  0.20%  0.09%  0.09%  0.03%        3.25    77.97% 98.48%
George Mason       4.38% 13.38% 17.23% 16.22% 13.69% 10.99%  8.11%  5.88%  4.00%  2.70%  1.71%  0.94%  0.51%  0.51%  0.21%        4.94    51.22% 93.89%
Richmond           3.76% 11.94% 14.75% 14.42% 13.19% 11.25%  8.89%  7.05%  5.22%  3.77%  2.56%  1.60%  0.94%  0.94%  0.48%        5.42    44.87% 90.47%
Duquesne           1.61%  8.71% 13.26% 14.20% 13.88% 12.10% 10.21%  8.08%  6.17%  4.52%  3.19%  2.08%  1.18%  1.18%  0.60%        5.90    37.78% 88.22%
VCU                3.17%  8.58% 11.29% 12.50% 12.61% 11.90% 10.28%  8.57%  6.71%  5.18%  3.83%  2.59%  1.65%  1.65%  0.88%        6.14    35.54% 85.61%
St. Bonaventure    0.66%  2.67%  5.11%  7.06%  8.64% 10.01% 11.08% 11.19% 10.65%  9.51%  7.93%  6.45%  4.77%  4.77%  2.96%        8.20    15.49% 67.05%
Davidson           0.33%  2.17%  4.26%  6.53%  8.68% 10.63% 11.67% 12.10% 11.25%  9.84%  8.04%  6.03%  4.37%  4.37%  2.76%        8.24    13.29% 67.62%
Massachusetts      0.58%  2.27%  4.01%  6.10%  7.56%  9.03% 10.38% 10.81% 10.51%  9.93%  8.85%  7.51%  5.89%  5.89%  4.26%        8.66    12.96% 61.24%
George Washington  0.21%  0.89%  2.04%  3.20%  4.62%  6.05%  7.61%  9.19% 10.63% 11.25% 11.42% 10.58%  9.55%  9.55%  7.83%        9.97     6.34% 44.44%
Loyola Chicago     0.08%  0.34%  0.89%  1.62%  2.57%  3.82%  5.48%  7.00%  8.96% 10.82% 12.27% 13.12% 12.74% 12.74% 11.69%       10.95     2.93% 30.76%
Fordham            0.03%  0.17%  0.46%  0.99%  1.65%  2.58%  3.93%  5.54%  7.45%  9.40% 11.45% 13.29% 14.64% 14.64% 15.19%       11.55     1.65% 22.80%
Rhode Island       0.02%  0.14%  0.41%  0.86%  1.54%  2.71%  4.01%  5.59%  7.39%  9.04% 10.74% 13.03% 14.34% 14.34% 15.60%       11.57     1.42% 22.68%
Saint Joseph's     0.01%  0.10%  0.34%  0.77%  1.43%  2.27%  3.47%  4.85%  6.62%  8.74% 10.98% 12.92% 15.37% 15.37% 16.34%       11.76     1.21% 19.86%
La Salle           0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.14%  0.33%  0.56%  1.06%  1.83%  2.99%  4.50%  6.61%  9.64% 13.98% 13.98% 21.15%       12.79     0.19%  6.96%
Love these, LIBob.

Could you tell us how these are determined?
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  #7  
Old 01-02-2023, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411 View Post
KC Royals.
My Detriot Tigers
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  #8  
Old 01-02-2023, 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by flyer016 View Post
Love these, LIBob.

Could you tell us how these are determined?
Sure. I run 100,000 simulations of the A10 schedule using actual results for games played and KenPom win probabilities for games yet to be played.
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  #9  
Old 01-02-2023, 08:43 PM
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It’s all about KenPom and the metrics and right now the Flyers are well ahead of any other team in the conference.
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  #10  
Old 01-02-2023, 09:06 PM
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Can you predict the price of Twitter stock In March too?
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  #11  
Old 01-02-2023, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
Can you predict the price of Twitter stock In March too?
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Sure….$0.00. Since it is a private company it has no stock price.
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  #12  
Old 01-03-2023, 08:33 AM
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Nice work....but at this point..
Interesting only. Wi be fun to watch things unfold!
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Old 01-03-2023, 11:19 AM
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Remarkable that most posts are critical. I get it, it's a statistical model. Let's see what happens, or as Howard Cosell would say: "That's why they play the games".

Now we can get back to the 2023 NFL Mock draft version 63.
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Old 01-03-2023, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
Remarkable that most posts are critical. I get it, it's a statistical model. Let's see what happens, or as Howard Cosell would say: "That's why they play the games".

Now we can get back to the 2023 NFL Mock draft version 63.
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
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Old 01-03-2023, 01:12 PM
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One of if not my favorite thread of the year. One thing to watch this year is that ninth seed. remember that now teams 10 through 15 will have to play on the first day.
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Old 01-03-2023, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
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Then don't look at it. Nobody is saying this is going to be completely predictive today. I personally enjoy looking at how it shifts throughout the season as more games are played.
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Old 01-03-2023, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
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Actually, this takes into account all games to date which is around half of the season. KenPom numbers are now starting to become predictive.
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Old 01-03-2023, 10:18 PM
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Interesting that Fordham, with its current record, is still only projected to finish 12th.
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Old 01-03-2023, 10:26 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Interesting that Fordham, with its current record, is still only projected to finish 12th.
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Look at who they played OOC. The Sacred Bleeding Heart Of Jesus Located somewhere in Los Angeles, California, is not exactly a Quad I win.
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  #20  
Old 01-04-2023, 11:03 AM
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I've got us at 13 and 3!
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Old 01-04-2023, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Interesting that Fordham, with its current record, is still only projected to finish 12th.
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It’s about strength of the team, not just wins and losses. Fordham has played the worst schedule in the country in OOC, and they’ve struggled in some of those games. As you can see form the result of their game against Davidson, which they lost at home by 15 points, the predictive nature of KenPom was pretty accurate.
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Old 01-04-2023, 01:06 PM
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It's not even entirely SOS. More accurately, it's how efficiently you play.

And Fordham has the 260th offense in the nation and 150th defense, for an overall ranking of 190th in on-court performance. When the metrics say you're that bad, same metric won't give you much credit for beating teams that are worse (though pragmatically speaking, the upshot is that even a bad team can rack up wins against worse team, so it does circle back to SOS in that way). And that's how you win 12 OOC games, and project to win 6 or 7 conference games.

Dayton has the 18th best defense in the country, which is elite, and an offense that is trending up (80th in our last 8 games, with turnovers being our biggest remaining hurdle), which is why metrics still like us for 13 or 14 conference wins. [That is without even factoring the human element of getting Mali and Elvis back, which should address the exact areas where our offense falters.]
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Old 01-04-2023, 01:23 PM
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Atlantic 10 has adjusted tip times for the tournament. A significant item of note, there is a one day break between the quarters, and semi‘s. The incentive to grab one of those top four spots is now larger because you only have to play three games in four days now. https://atlantic10.com/sports/2022/8/10/MBB23.aspx
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Old 01-04-2023, 04:45 PM
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travel

Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
Atlantic 10 has adjusted tip times for the tournament. A significant item of note, there is a one day break between the quarters, and semi‘s. The incentive to grab one of those top four spots is now larger because you only have to play three games in four days now. https://atlantic10.com/sports/2022/8/10/MBB23.aspx
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I despise the new format. If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.

1. Brooklyn is not cheap. Adding a day adds dollars. Early season tournaments (i.e. Orlando) do it to grab tourist dollars. I get that.
2. Friday off only really aids teams who upset 1-4. When 1-4 all win, what is the benefit? UD has a short bench right now. Oh well, deal with it.
3. No one attends the games on day 1 outside of family members and school kids that get bussed in for a field trip. The games are on ESPN+. I don't see any media benefit. Nobody will be talking about and analyzing those games on TV or radio.

On top of those issues, the LGA-DAY return flights are terrible. There's no longer a Sunday evening non-stop. I think best is a connection in Chicago and landing in Dayton near midnight. In the past, we could watch the selection show in LGA and board a plane.
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Old 01-04-2023, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia View Post
It's not even entirely SOS. More accurately, it's how efficiently you play.

And Fordham has the 260th offense in the nation and 150th defense, for an overall ranking of 190th in on-court performance. When the metrics say you're that bad, same metric won't give you much credit for beating teams that are worse (though pragmatically speaking, the upshot is that even a bad team can rack up wins against worse team, so it does circle back to SOS in that way). And that's how you win 12 OOC games, and project to win 6 or 7 conference games.

Dayton has the 18th best defense in the country, which is elite, and an offense that is trending up (80th in our last 8 games, with turnovers being our biggest remaining hurdle), which is why metrics still like us for 13 or 14 conference wins. [That is without even factoring the human element of getting Mali and Elvis back, which should address the exact areas where our offense falters.]
Thanks for posting this Rick. Solid information that I’m not sure the casual fan (or even casual poster on UD Pride) fully understands.

It’s important for UD to continue to reduce TO’s and improve offense efficiency. Not only does it increase winning probability but it will be something the committee looks at.

I would argue the lack of fully understanding the NET is the primary reason so many on this board we’re surprised to find out UD was so close to getting an at large bid. And, this year, even without the signature wins, could help UD if they go, say 16-2, in conference.
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Old 01-04-2023, 05:56 PM
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
I despise the new format. If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.

1. Brooklyn is not cheap. Adding a day adds dollars. Early season tournaments (i.e. Orlando) do it to grab tourist dollars. I get that.
2. Friday off only really aids teams who upset 1-4. When 1-4 all win, what is the benefit? UD has a short bench right now. Oh well, deal with it.
3. No one attends the games on day 1 outside of family members and school kids that get bussed in for a field trip. The games are on ESPN+. I don't see any media benefit. Nobody will be talking about and analyzing those games on TV or radio.

On top of those issues, the LGA-DAY return flights are terrible. There's no longer a Sunday evening non-stop. I think best is a connection in Chicago and landing in Dayton near midnight. In the past, we could watch the selection show in LGA and board a plane.
I would rather spend a weekend in jail than fly into LGA
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Old 01-04-2023, 07:03 PM
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I live in north Jersey, 4 miles from the New Jersey - New York (Orange County) border. Driving to Brooklyn, while doable, just doesn't make sense to me. I am referring to parking, tolls, etc. I think it is now a $16 toll to cross the GW bridge! That leaves public transportation. With time constraints, connections that would have to be made, that is out of the question. I am not about to get a hotel room in Brooklyn for the tournament. All this has become too expensive! I have attended the A-10 Tournament in Dayton and Atlantic City (a 3 and 1/2 hour drive). I will not go to Brooklyn. Madison Square Graden is much easier to get to, but that is not in the discussion.

We play Fordham next week. I have made the trip to Rose Hill in the past, but I do NOT plan on traveling to the "da Bronx" next week. At 73, almost 74, I'll just sit at home and watch the game on the Tube! If someone wants to drive me to Fordham next week maybe, I'll reconsider.

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Old 01-04-2023, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
I despise the new format. If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.

1. Brooklyn is not cheap. Adding a day adds dollars. Early season tournaments (i.e. Orlando) do it to grab tourist dollars. I get that.
2. Friday off only really aids teams who upset 1-4. When 1-4 all win, what is the benefit? UD has a short bench right now. Oh well, deal with it.
3. No one attends the games on day 1 outside of family members and school kids that get bussed in for a field trip. The games are on ESPN+. I don't see any media benefit. Nobody will be talking about and analyzing those games on TV or radio.

On top of those issues, the LGA-DAY return flights are terrible. There's no longer a Sunday evening non-stop. I think best is a connection in Chicago and landing in Dayton near midnight. In the past, we could watch the selection show in LGA and board a plane.
It's not just the cost, it's the CRIME that has exploded in NYC. I'll stop there or this will be considered an Off Topic item.
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Old 01-04-2023, 10:26 PM
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Talking

Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
I would rather spend a weekend in jail than fly into LGA
Spot on....beautiful airport, followed by a short, quiet, lazy drive into the city
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Old 01-04-2023, 10:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
It's not just the cost, it's the CRIME that has exploded in NYC. I'll stop there or this will be considered an Off Topic item.
I lived there when the crime was significantly worse in the early 90’s. I never had an issue. Use common sense, and the city is safe. I only had one friend who was mostly responsible and was still a victim of an attack. I say mostly because he knew better than to stand alone on a platform in Jamaica on a Sunday morning. He knew that safety is in numbers. Fwiw, he was only a “victim” because he was attacked. He is a martial arts expert and caused significant injury to the attacker. Karma.
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Old 01-05-2023, 11:57 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/4:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            79.48% 12.58%  4.29%  1.99%  0.82%  0.45%  0.22%  0.10%  0.05%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.35    98.34% 99.97%
Saint Louis        7.35% 21.24% 17.68% 14.15% 11.19%  8.76%  6.77%  4.99%  3.42%  2.16%  1.24%  0.62%  0.31%  0.31%  0.10%        4.37    60.42% 95.55%
Duquesne           2.53% 16.70% 16.76% 14.90% 12.74% 10.41%  8.37%  6.46%  4.58%  2.97%  1.82%  0.99%  0.51%  0.51%  0.24%        5.00    50.88% 93.43%
Richmond           3.51% 15.27% 14.60% 13.30% 11.99% 10.63%  9.06%  7.39%  5.71%  3.79%  2.35%  1.31%  0.71%  0.71%  0.30%        5.29    46.67% 91.45%
George Mason       2.24% 10.71% 13.21% 13.66% 13.27% 12.08% 10.20%  8.33%  6.23%  4.37%  2.81%  1.68%  0.79%  0.79%  0.34%        5.68    39.82% 89.92%
Davidson           0.74%  5.30%  7.72%  9.39% 11.07% 11.84% 12.12% 11.87% 10.33%  8.00%  5.48%  3.20%  1.80%  1.80%  0.83%        7.01    23.15% 80.38%
Massachusetts      1.48%  6.57%  8.20%  9.29% 10.02% 10.58% 10.74% 10.44%  9.60%  7.88%  5.99%  4.31%  2.71%  2.71%  1.60%        7.14    25.53% 76.91%
VCU                1.31%  5.18%  7.38%  9.23% 10.31% 11.12% 11.22% 10.72%  9.74%  8.27%  6.34%  4.33%  2.87%  2.87%  1.49%        7.28    23.10% 76.21%
St. Bonaventure    1.18%  5.08%  7.26%  8.79%  9.89% 10.74% 11.46% 11.29% 10.40%  8.47%  6.47%  4.39%  2.73%  2.73%  1.42%        7.33    22.30% 76.07%
George Washington  0.12%  0.75%  1.44%  2.25%  3.35%  4.58%  6.22%  8.33% 10.31% 12.53% 13.54% 12.57% 10.79% 10.79%  8.25%       10.42     4.55% 37.34%
Rhode Island       0.05%  0.32%  0.70%  1.37%  2.29%  3.63%  5.24%  7.13%  9.52% 11.49% 12.95% 13.57% 12.73% 12.73% 11.23%       10.99     2.43% 30.24%
Fordham            0.02%  0.13%  0.37%  0.66%  1.11%  1.91%  3.01%  4.20%  6.45%  9.08% 11.94% 14.35% 16.10% 16.10% 16.59%       11.88     1.17% 17.84%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.08%  0.19%  0.47%  0.96%  1.49%  2.43%  3.79%  5.71%  8.40% 11.09% 13.72% 16.24% 16.24% 17.87%       12.08     0.74% 15.12%
Loyola Chicago     0.01%  0.09%  0.19%  0.45%  0.80%  1.43%  2.23%  3.58%  5.43%  8.26% 11.28% 14.67% 16.80% 16.80% 17.98%       12.14     0.74% 14.22%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.04%  0.10%  0.20%  0.38%  0.72%  1.38%  2.53%  4.32%  6.71% 10.29% 14.90% 14.90% 21.76%       12.93     0.16%  5.36%
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Old 01-05-2023, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
Look at who they played OOC. The Sacred Bleeding Heart Of Jesus Located somewhere in Los Angeles, California, is not exactly a Quad I win.
Yes, but after the win the Fordahm bus driver ran 20 red lights in their honor.
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Old 01-05-2023, 03:35 PM
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Talking plan ahead

Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
If UD is not a virtual lock for 1-4 in early, I doubt we make the trip.
Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/4:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            79.48% 12.58%  4.29%  1.99%  0.82%  0.45%  0.22%  0.10%  0.05%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.35    98.34% 99.97%
Saint Louis        7.35% 21.24% 17.68% 14.15% 11.19%  8.76%  6.77%  4.99%  3.42%  2.16%  1.24%  0.62%  0.31%  0.31%  0.10%        4.37    60.42% 95.55%
Duquesne           2.53% 16.70% 16.76% 14.90% 12.74% 10.41%  8.37%  6.46%  4.58%  2.97%  1.82%  0.99%  0.51%  0.51%  0.24%        5.00    50.88% 93.43%
Richmond           3.51% 15.27% 14.60% 13.30% 11.99% 10.63%  9.06%  7.39%  5.71%  3.79%  2.35%  1.31%  0.71%  0.71%  0.30%        5.29    46.67% 91.45%
George Mason       2.24% 10.71% 13.21% 13.66% 13.27% 12.08% 10.20%  8.33%  6.23%  4.37%  2.81%  1.68%  0.79%  0.79%  0.34%        5.68    39.82% 89.92%
Davidson           0.74%  5.30%  7.72%  9.39% 11.07% 11.84% 12.12% 11.87% 10.33%  8.00%  5.48%  3.20%  1.80%  1.80%  0.83%        7.01    23.15% 80.38%
Massachusetts      1.48%  6.57%  8.20%  9.29% 10.02% 10.58% 10.74% 10.44%  9.60%  7.88%  5.99%  4.31%  2.71%  2.71%  1.60%        7.14    25.53% 76.91%
VCU                1.31%  5.18%  7.38%  9.23% 10.31% 11.12% 11.22% 10.72%  9.74%  8.27%  6.34%  4.33%  2.87%  2.87%  1.49%        7.28    23.10% 76.21%
St. Bonaventure    1.18%  5.08%  7.26%  8.79%  9.89% 10.74% 11.46% 11.29% 10.40%  8.47%  6.47%  4.39%  2.73%  2.73%  1.42%        7.33    22.30% 76.07%
George Washington  0.12%  0.75%  1.44%  2.25%  3.35%  4.58%  6.22%  8.33% 10.31% 12.53% 13.54% 12.57% 10.79% 10.79%  8.25%       10.42     4.55% 37.34%
Rhode Island       0.05%  0.32%  0.70%  1.37%  2.29%  3.63%  5.24%  7.13%  9.52% 11.49% 12.95% 13.57% 12.73% 12.73% 11.23%       10.99     2.43% 30.24%
Fordham            0.02%  0.13%  0.37%  0.66%  1.11%  1.91%  3.01%  4.20%  6.45%  9.08% 11.94% 14.35% 16.10% 16.10% 16.59%       11.88     1.17% 17.84%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.08%  0.19%  0.47%  0.96%  1.49%  2.43%  3.79%  5.71%  8.40% 11.09% 13.72% 16.24% 16.24% 17.87%       12.08     0.74% 15.12%
Loyola Chicago     0.01%  0.09%  0.19%  0.45%  0.80%  1.43%  2.23%  3.58%  5.43%  8.26% 11.28% 14.67% 16.80% 16.80% 17.98%       12.14     0.74% 14.22%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.04%  0.10%  0.20%  0.38%  0.72%  1.38%  2.53%  4.32%  6.71% 10.29% 14.90% 14.90% 21.76%       12.93     0.16%  5.36%
Well, UD looks like a lock for 1-4. I better start planning.
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Old 01-05-2023, 03:47 PM
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Old 01-05-2023, 04:19 PM
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It feels like the A10 is starting to suffer from the great sorting of big college sports. Those probabilities reflect UD being the class of the conference (in a not particular good OOC season).

UD should always be a favorite for the regular season and tournament championships, but it's becoming clear that UD needs to start winning conference championships with regularity. There's no excuses. Most of these teams don't belong in the same gym, and it's time to start asserting some A10 dominance. Anything less than 15 wins and a 1-seed is a disappointment for me.
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Old 01-05-2023, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/4:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            79.48% 12.58%  4.29%  1.99%  0.82%  0.45%  0.22%  0.10%  0.05%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.35    98.34% 99.97%
Saint Louis        7.35% 21.24% 17.68% 14.15% 11.19%  8.76%  6.77%  4.99%  3.42%  2.16%  1.24%  0.62%  0.31%  0.31%  0.10%        4.37    60.42% 95.55%
Duquesne           2.53% 16.70% 16.76% 14.90% 12.74% 10.41%  8.37%  6.46%  4.58%  2.97%  1.82%  0.99%  0.51%  0.51%  0.24%        5.00    50.88% 93.43%
Richmond           3.51% 15.27% 14.60% 13.30% 11.99% 10.63%  9.06%  7.39%  5.71%  3.79%  2.35%  1.31%  0.71%  0.71%  0.30%        5.29    46.67% 91.45%
George Mason       2.24% 10.71% 13.21% 13.66% 13.27% 12.08% 10.20%  8.33%  6.23%  4.37%  2.81%  1.68%  0.79%  0.79%  0.34%        5.68    39.82% 89.92%
Davidson           0.74%  5.30%  7.72%  9.39% 11.07% 11.84% 12.12% 11.87% 10.33%  8.00%  5.48%  3.20%  1.80%  1.80%  0.83%        7.01    23.15% 80.38%
Massachusetts      1.48%  6.57%  8.20%  9.29% 10.02% 10.58% 10.74% 10.44%  9.60%  7.88%  5.99%  4.31%  2.71%  2.71%  1.60%        7.14    25.53% 76.91%
VCU                1.31%  5.18%  7.38%  9.23% 10.31% 11.12% 11.22% 10.72%  9.74%  8.27%  6.34%  4.33%  2.87%  2.87%  1.49%        7.28    23.10% 76.21%
St. Bonaventure    1.18%  5.08%  7.26%  8.79%  9.89% 10.74% 11.46% 11.29% 10.40%  8.47%  6.47%  4.39%  2.73%  2.73%  1.42%        7.33    22.30% 76.07%
George Washington  0.12%  0.75%  1.44%  2.25%  3.35%  4.58%  6.22%  8.33% 10.31% 12.53% 13.54% 12.57% 10.79% 10.79%  8.25%       10.42     4.55% 37.34%
Rhode Island       0.05%  0.32%  0.70%  1.37%  2.29%  3.63%  5.24%  7.13%  9.52% 11.49% 12.95% 13.57% 12.73% 12.73% 11.23%       10.99     2.43% 30.24%
Fordham            0.02%  0.13%  0.37%  0.66%  1.11%  1.91%  3.01%  4.20%  6.45%  9.08% 11.94% 14.35% 16.10% 16.10% 16.59%       11.88     1.17% 17.84%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.08%  0.19%  0.47%  0.96%  1.49%  2.43%  3.79%  5.71%  8.40% 11.09% 13.72% 16.24% 16.24% 17.87%       12.08     0.74% 15.12%
Loyola Chicago     0.01%  0.09%  0.19%  0.45%  0.80%  1.43%  2.23%  3.58%  5.43%  8.26% 11.28% 14.67% 16.80% 16.80% 17.98%       12.14     0.74% 14.22%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.04%  0.10%  0.20%  0.38%  0.72%  1.38%  2.53%  4.32%  6.71% 10.29% 14.90% 14.90% 21.76%       12.93     0.16%  5.36%
I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a disparity between the forecasted top seed and the rest of the conference. Bob, since you’ve been doing this, has there ever been such a wide margin?
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Old 01-09-2023, 02:23 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a disparity between the forecasted top seed and the rest of the conference. Bob, since you’ve been doing this, has there ever been such a wide margin?
Looking back to 2020, on the 1/5 update UD had a 70% chance to be seed first, followed by VCU at 17%. By the 1/11 update, UD rose to 80% followed by Duquesne at 7%.

So a similar disparity. Hopefully, the regular season conference results can end up the same.
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Old 01-09-2023, 12:22 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/7:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            75.04% 15.02%  5.42%  2.38%  1.07%  0.56%  0.28%  0.13%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.44    97.86% 99.96%
Saint Louis       11.14% 25.91% 19.21% 14.08%  9.98%  7.26%  4.84%  3.20%  2.04%  1.26%  0.63%  0.30%  0.11%  0.11%  0.03%        3.75    70.34% 97.65%
Richmond           4.97% 17.84% 16.96% 14.52% 12.22%  9.89%  7.77%  5.86%  4.12%  2.66%  1.61%  0.93%  0.44%  0.44%  0.17%        4.76    54.28% 94.13%
George Mason       2.92% 11.74% 14.49% 14.97% 14.14% 12.08%  9.75%  7.42%  5.19%  3.51%  2.02%  1.03%  0.52%  0.52%  0.16%        5.31    44.13% 92.70%
Duquesne           1.61% 11.47% 15.46% 15.88% 14.27% 11.92%  9.42%  7.09%  5.21%  3.47%  2.13%  1.18%  0.62%  0.62%  0.23%        5.36    44.41% 92.32%
VCU                2.55%  8.15% 10.44% 11.90% 12.78% 12.46% 11.16%  9.43%  7.36%  5.49%  3.75%  2.38%  1.36%  1.36%  0.61%        6.19    33.04% 86.22%
Davidson           0.27%  2.45%  4.54%  6.49%  8.82% 10.98% 12.67% 13.21% 12.36% 10.30%  7.61%  5.09%  2.98%  2.98%  1.65%        7.94    13.76% 71.79%
Massachusetts      0.75%  3.39%  5.34%  6.87%  8.65% 10.22% 11.01% 11.40% 11.18%  9.93%  8.05%  5.83%  3.98%  3.98%  2.34%        8.01    16.34% 68.81%
St. Bonaventure    0.42%  2.04%  4.16%  6.23%  7.84%  9.45% 11.15% 11.86% 11.84% 10.82%  8.98%  6.77%  4.67%  4.67%  2.70%        8.42    12.85% 64.99%
George Washington  0.27%  1.50%  2.70%  4.04%  5.58%  7.22%  9.15% 10.68% 12.12% 12.41% 11.36%  9.25%  6.96%  6.96%  4.50%        9.29     8.52% 53.26%
Fordham            0.03%  0.27%  0.64%  1.22%  2.01%  3.07%  4.82%  6.60%  8.91% 11.39% 13.62% 14.39% 13.76% 13.76% 11.74%       11.17     2.17% 27.58%
Rhode Island       0.02%  0.12%  0.38%  0.85%  1.46%  2.58%  3.88%  5.80%  7.86% 10.08% 12.38% 13.73% 14.47% 14.47% 14.40%       11.52     1.37% 22.95%
Loyola Chicago     0.01%  0.04%  0.11%  0.20%  0.42%  0.83%  1.42%  2.61%  4.31%  6.91% 10.39% 14.11% 16.91% 16.91% 19.51%       12.46     0.36%  9.94%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.03%  0.10%  0.21%  0.45%  0.84%  1.40%  2.49%  3.72%  5.83%  8.59% 12.48% 16.57% 16.57% 20.82%       12.59     0.34%  9.23%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.05%  0.17%  0.31%  0.66%  1.30%  2.23%  3.73%  5.95%  8.87% 12.53% 16.65% 16.65% 21.12%       12.64     0.24%  8.47%
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  #39  
Old 01-09-2023, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
There is no value in this 1-2 games in. Around game 12 this would get a completely different response.
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I would argue that there is no value to it until the end of the season, other than for discussion and comparison. It is a predictor of something(s) that is (are) going actually happen in real life, the actual result is what matters.

Even the NET is somewhat useless until all the games have been played as nothing is static, you could beat the #1 team in the country on their home court in November and if they are #100 in March you have yourself a road win over #100.

Full disclosure, I tend to expect the worst, figuring I will be pleasantly surprised.

Last edited by Flyers98; 01-09-2023 at 12:44 PM..
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Old 01-09-2023, 01:06 PM
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I took the free money from FanDual and DraftKings and placed it on My Team to win the A10 regular season. Who's with me?
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  #41  
Old 01-09-2023, 01:42 PM
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I would argue this has more value today, than it would around game 12 and certainly more than at the end of the season. This is predicting the likelihood of each school earning varying seeds for the A10 tournament, therefor at seasons end this means nothing as the results will be fully baked in and it will tell you no more than what the conference standings tells you.


At game 12, there is still things to be played out, but 2/3rds of the results will have already been baked into the formula. Early on, all one has to do is assume what happened OOC will happen in conference and here is the outcome. Of course we all know things will be different than what happened OOC. Injuries will occur, others will return, team chemistry will change, some will mentally check out while others start to find their footing and confidence.


If you want to take these as gospel, then yes that is a fool's errand this early in the season, however if you want to take the as intended at this point, a guideline for how the season will progress if everything stays steady then it helps you figure out who to "watch out for".
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Old 01-09-2023, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I took the free money from FanDual and DraftKings and placed it on My Team to win the A10 regular season. Who's with me?
What kind of odds did you get?
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Old 01-09-2023, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer View Post
What kind of odds did you get?
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-230 on FanDual and -170 on DraftKings
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Old 01-09-2023, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I would argue this has more value today, than it would around game 12 and certainly more than at the end of the season. This is predicting the likelihood of each school earning varying seeds for the A10 tournament, therefor at seasons end this means nothing as the results will be fully baked in and it will tell you no more than what the conference standings tells you.


At game 12, there is still things to be played out, but 2/3rds of the results will have already been baked into the formula. Early on, all one has to do is assume what happened OOC will happen in conference and here is the outcome. Of course we all know things will be different than what happened OOC. Injuries will occur, others will return, team chemistry will change, some will mentally check out while others start to find their footing and confidence.

If you want to take these as gospel, then yes that is a fool's errand this early in the season, however if you want to take the as intended at this point, a guideline for how the season will progress if everything stays steady then it helps you figure out who to "watch out for".
I don't have to figure out who to "watch out for" as I won't be playing any basketball for the Flyers this season, (still working on getting an exemption, growing 8 inches, and developing a lot more athletic ability for next year).

Any coach who needs to be told "who to watch out for" should be fired on the spot as the answer to that question from a coach/player perspective is always "everyone." These rankings/predictions have entertainment value, (including as betting tools, congrats Ohio!), and are good for starting hypothetical discussions, but that is really the only value they have. The only thing that really matters is what the metrics say at the end, which as you correctly point out is based on actual data and not simulations or projections.

Last edited by Flyers98; 01-09-2023 at 03:13 PM..
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Old 01-09-2023, 03:29 PM
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Well I sure as **** hope that neither CAG nor anyone from his staff is reading UDPRIDE trying to gleam a little inside tip on the opposition or whom to recruit.


If all you want to do is sit back and see what the standings say at the end of the year, then this thread isn't for you. Part of the fun (for me anyways) is seeing what the possibilities ahead look like and things like this or Torvik remove my personal bias from the equation and give me a reasonable picture of what the future may hold if everything stays 'steady'. I don't think any reasonable person thinks this or anything similar is absolute.
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Old 01-09-2023, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyers98 View Post
I don't have to figure out who to "watch out for" as I won't be playing any basketball for the Flyers this season, (still working on getting an exemption, growing 8 inches, and developing a lot more athletic ability for next year).

Any coach who needs to be told "who to watch out for" should be fired on the spot as the answer to that question from a coach/player perspective is always "everyone." These rankings/predictions have entertainment value, (including as betting tools, congrats Ohio!), and are good for starting hypothetical discussions, but that is really the only value they have. The only thing that really matters is what the metrics say at the end, which as you correctly point out is based on actual data and not simulations or projections.
Yep. It's like the ESPN game predictor that is always accurate at the end of the game and is captain obvious the rest of the time.
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Old 01-09-2023, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I would argue this has more value today, than it would around game 12 and certainly more than at the end of the season. This is predicting the likelihood of each school earning varying seeds for the A10 tournament, therefor at seasons end this means nothing as the results will be fully baked in and it will tell you no more than what the conference standings tells you.


At game 12, there is still things to be played out, but 2/3rds of the results will have already been baked into the formula. Early on, all one has to do is assume what happened OOC will happen in conference and here is the outcome. Of course we all know things will be different than what happened OOC. Injuries will occur, others will return, team chemistry will change, some will mentally check out while others start to find their footing and confidence.


If you want to take these as gospel, then yes that is a fool's errand this early in the season, however if you want to take the as intended at this point, a guideline for how the season will progress if everything stays steady then it helps you figure out who to "watch out for".
I see it as just the opposite. Early on it's just conjecture on limited data points for teams that have likely not played many of the same teams. Once the conference games start, the value of the data used in projections is much more accurate and predictions more rational and based on more relevant data points.

If we used this same model to predict who would be most likely to win the A10 tournament for the past 20 years, how accurate would it have rated UD's chances vs. actuals?
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Old 01-09-2023, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
I see it as just the opposite. Early on it's just conjecture on limited data points for teams that have likely not played many of the same teams. Once the conference games start, the value of the data used in projections is much more accurate and predictions more rational and based on more relevant data points.

If we used this same model to predict who would be most likely to win the A10 tournament for the past 20 years, how accurate would it have rated UD's chances vs. actuals?
Medford didn't say "more accurate", he said "more valuable". That was his whole point. Of course it becomes more and more accurate each game and eventually is 100% accurate and matches the standings at the end of the year.

More "valuable" now because it lets the casual observer know that despite Fordham having the best non-conference record, they are still way down in the projected finish ranking. And despite Dayton's worse than expected record to start the season, the metrics still show that we have the best team in the A10.

It is not 100% accurate, but it is much more accurate than simply looking at a team's record or pre-season coach's poll to determine the conference favorites at this point.
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  #49  
Old 01-09-2023, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by superfan99 View Post
Medford didn't say "more accurate", he said "more valuable". That was his whole point. Of course it becomes more and more accurate each game and eventually is 100% accurate and matches the standings at the end of the year.

More "valuable" now because it lets the casual observer know that despite Fordham having the best non-conference record, they are still way down in the projected finish ranking. And despite Dayton's worse than expected record to start the season, the metrics still show that we have the best team in the A10.

It is not 100% accurate, but it is much more accurate than simply looking at a team's record or pre-season coach's poll to determine the conference favorites at this point.
Fair enough but NET tells us the same thing since UD was highest entering the conference season. Many other prediction methods do the same thing using different metrics and weighting. This is just another one of those and not better or worse necessarily.

There are so many of these out there, it just comes down to either which are you going to trust or how many have to tell you the same thing before I will trust it.

I have a hard time understanding how a prediction tool worth considering could be rating UD as 70% likely 3 games in with this team having been so up and down.

It's like the pre-season top 25 in NCAAF that are so far from accurate for about 75% of the teams by year's end that it really has little predictive value until at least half way thru the season.

I'm also wondering if this model takes the imbalanced schedules into consideration when determining this? Since we play the other top teams twice and others play the weaker twice, is that a consideration when creating their pcts?

I'm a data guy in my job so I guess I just define value differently and have a hard time changing that when wearing my fan hat.

Last edited by Marysville Flyer; 01-09-2023 at 04:27 PM..
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Old 01-09-2023, 04:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Well I sure as **** hope that neither CAG nor anyone from his staff is reading UDPRIDE trying to gleam a little inside tip on the opposition or whom to recruit.


If all you want to do is sit back and see what the standings say at the end of the year, then this thread isn't for you. Part of the fun (for me anyways) is seeing what the possibilities ahead look like and things like this or Torvik remove my personal bias from the equation and give me a reasonable picture of what the future may hold if everything stays 'steady'. I don't think any reasonable person thinks this or anything similar is absolute.
It isn't the reasonable people who concern me.

The proliferation of these metrics is (at least in part) due to the fact that people love to argue about them and discuss them and like most things surrounding sports these days...gambling.

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Old 01-09-2023, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
Fair enough but NET tells us the same thing since UD was highest entering the conference season. Many other prediction methods do the same thing using different metrics and weighting. This is just another one of those and not better or worse necessarily.

There are so many of these out there, it just comes down to either which are you going to trust or how many have to tell you the same thing before I will trust it.

I have a hard time understanding how a prediction tool worth considering could be rating UD as 70% likely 3 games in with this team having been so up and down.

It's like the pre-season top 25 in NCAAF that are so far from accurate for about 75% of the teams by year's end that it really has little predictive value until at least half way thru the season.

I'm also wondering if this model takes the imbalanced schedules into consideration when determining this? Since we play the other top teams twice and others play the weaker twice, is that a consideration when creating their pcts?

I'm a data guy in my job so I guess I just define value differently and have a hard time changing that when wearing my fan hat.



All that is true, my guess is that if you looked at Ken Pom, Torvik, KPI, or anything else similar that would yield similar results at the macro level. Focus in on a handful of teams and you would see differences, but overall my assumption is they are similar (though I've never really looked much at the differences overall, other than where UD sits). I'm pretty sure all would tell you that overall, teams are fairly well connected at this point based upon the amount of games played overall. I believe KenPom drops its preseason rankings slowly and by around game 12, any preseason numbers baked into his ratings are gone. Torvik also does the same thing with his preseason rankings, but factors them out a bit quicker (I want to say around game 8 they are all gone, I've read Torvik commment on this at some point 2-3 years ago, can't recall the exact numbers other than Torvik considers all teams connected quicker). Jeff Sagrain does his same thing.


Yes, I'd venture a guess that most of these analytical sites have gained popularity due to gambling. Unless you were a coach or reporter, why would you pay for KenPom unless you planned to gain from it (short of the handful of people that just love numbers). Since I don't gamble on college basketball, I've felt the desire to pay for KenPom's stuff, and Torvik offers his for free which satisfies my nerdy number side just fine


At the end of the day, they are just prediction tools that take the emotion out of things by just looking at numbers. They can't factor in how an injury will impact a team for a stretch or how team chemistry can derail an otherwise talented team mid season.
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Old 01-12-2023, 11:23 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/11:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            80.27% 12.93%  4.14%  1.58%  0.65%  0.28%  0.09%  0.04%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.31    98.92%100.00%
Saint Louis        7.92% 23.97% 21.50% 16.66% 11.89%  7.95%  4.58%  2.66%  1.49%  0.79%  0.37%  0.16%  0.06%  0.06%  0.02%        3.76    70.05% 98.61%
Richmond           5.69% 25.90% 20.91% 15.71% 12.02%  8.32%  5.14%  2.95%  1.67%  0.87%  0.51%  0.21%  0.08%  0.08%  0.03%        3.87    68.20% 98.30%
Duquesne           1.66% 15.05% 19.64% 19.68% 15.62% 11.01%  7.23%  4.40%  2.64%  1.61%  0.87%  0.37%  0.16%  0.16%  0.05%        4.57    56.04% 96.94%
VCU                3.01% 11.68% 13.95% 15.74% 16.55% 14.28%  9.75%  6.34%  4.00%  2.35%  1.27%  0.68%  0.28%  0.28%  0.10%        5.08    44.39% 95.31%
George Mason       1.11%  7.06% 11.79% 15.13% 16.92% 16.50% 11.98%  8.07%  5.11%  3.09%  1.78%  0.87%  0.42%  0.42%  0.15%        5.61    35.09% 93.65%
St. Bonaventure    0.09%  0.79%  2.05%  3.90%  6.02%  8.87% 12.01% 12.96% 12.98% 11.81% 10.04%  8.00%  5.65%  5.65%  3.50%        9.02     6.83% 59.67%
Davidson           0.02%  0.45%  1.31%  2.84%  5.42%  8.68% 12.99% 14.75% 14.01% 12.97% 10.40%  7.71%  5.14%  5.14%  2.55%        9.04     4.61% 60.46%
George Washington  0.15%  1.25%  2.47%  4.23%  6.20%  8.57% 10.77% 12.32% 12.33% 11.66% 10.35%  8.31%  6.05%  6.05%  3.86%        9.04     8.10% 58.29%
Massachusetts      0.06%  0.64%  1.36%  2.43%  4.02%  6.19%  8.68% 10.88% 12.40% 12.57% 12.26% 10.73%  8.55%  8.55%  6.11%        9.90     4.50% 46.66%
Rhode Island       0.01%  0.14%  0.45%  1.06%  2.30%  4.49%  7.19%  9.40% 11.11% 12.19% 12.66% 12.64% 11.39% 11.39%  9.13%       10.68     1.65% 36.15%
La Salle           0.00%  0.07%  0.22%  0.53%  1.20%  2.42%  4.69%  7.00%  9.35% 11.38% 13.38% 14.70% 14.31% 14.31% 12.38%       11.38     0.82% 25.47%
Fordham            0.00%  0.06%  0.18%  0.45%  0.97%  1.83%  3.40%  5.29%  7.64%  9.87% 12.55% 14.97% 16.80% 16.80% 15.95%       11.82     0.70% 19.83%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.05%  0.16%  0.42%  0.98%  1.76%  3.03%  4.72%  6.80% 10.17% 15.21% 15.21% 23.44%       12.91     0.07%  6.41%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.07%  0.21%  0.53%  1.19%  2.23%  4.13%  6.77% 10.51% 15.92% 15.92% 22.73%       13.06     0.05%  4.27%
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  #53  
Old 01-12-2023, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/11:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            80.27% 12.93%  4.14%  1.58%  0.65%  0.28%  0.09%  0.04%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.31    98.92%100.00%
Saint Louis        7.92% 23.97% 21.50% 16.66% 11.89%  7.95%  4.58%  2.66%  1.49%  0.79%  0.37%  0.16%  0.06%  0.06%  0.02%        3.76    70.05% 98.61%
Richmond           5.69% 25.90% 20.91% 15.71% 12.02%  8.32%  5.14%  2.95%  1.67%  0.87%  0.51%  0.21%  0.08%  0.08%  0.03%        3.87    68.20% 98.30%
Duquesne           1.66% 15.05% 19.64% 19.68% 15.62% 11.01%  7.23%  4.40%  2.64%  1.61%  0.87%  0.37%  0.16%  0.16%  0.05%        4.57    56.04% 96.94%
VCU                3.01% 11.68% 13.95% 15.74% 16.55% 14.28%  9.75%  6.34%  4.00%  2.35%  1.27%  0.68%  0.28%  0.28%  0.10%        5.08    44.39% 95.31%
George Mason       1.11%  7.06% 11.79% 15.13% 16.92% 16.50% 11.98%  8.07%  5.11%  3.09%  1.78%  0.87%  0.42%  0.42%  0.15%        5.61    35.09% 93.65%
St. Bonaventure    0.09%  0.79%  2.05%  3.90%  6.02%  8.87% 12.01% 12.96% 12.98% 11.81% 10.04%  8.00%  5.65%  5.65%  3.50%        9.02     6.83% 59.67%
Davidson           0.02%  0.45%  1.31%  2.84%  5.42%  8.68% 12.99% 14.75% 14.01% 12.97% 10.40%  7.71%  5.14%  5.14%  2.55%        9.04     4.61% 60.46%
George Washington  0.15%  1.25%  2.47%  4.23%  6.20%  8.57% 10.77% 12.32% 12.33% 11.66% 10.35%  8.31%  6.05%  6.05%  3.86%        9.04     8.10% 58.29%
Massachusetts      0.06%  0.64%  1.36%  2.43%  4.02%  6.19%  8.68% 10.88% 12.40% 12.57% 12.26% 10.73%  8.55%  8.55%  6.11%        9.90     4.50% 46.66%
Rhode Island       0.01%  0.14%  0.45%  1.06%  2.30%  4.49%  7.19%  9.40% 11.11% 12.19% 12.66% 12.64% 11.39% 11.39%  9.13%       10.68     1.65% 36.15%
La Salle           0.00%  0.07%  0.22%  0.53%  1.20%  2.42%  4.69%  7.00%  9.35% 11.38% 13.38% 14.70% 14.31% 14.31% 12.38%       11.38     0.82% 25.47%
Fordham            0.00%  0.06%  0.18%  0.45%  0.97%  1.83%  3.40%  5.29%  7.64%  9.87% 12.55% 14.97% 16.80% 16.80% 15.95%       11.82     0.70% 19.83%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.05%  0.16%  0.42%  0.98%  1.76%  3.03%  4.72%  6.80% 10.17% 15.21% 15.21% 23.44%       12.91     0.07%  6.41%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.07%  0.21%  0.53%  1.19%  2.23%  4.13%  6.77% 10.51% 15.92% 15.92% 22.73%       13.06     0.05%  4.27%
Great data.

In other words, pretty much a 99% chance of a double bye...
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  #54  
Old 01-16-2023, 11:10 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/14:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            57.35% 22.91% 10.64%  4.95%  2.39%  1.08%  0.42%  0.18%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.78    95.85% 99.98%
Saint Louis       17.25% 23.85% 20.65% 15.70% 10.74%  6.15%  3.05%  1.46%  0.67%  0.29%  0.13%  0.05%  0.01%  0.01%  0.00%        3.24    77.46% 99.53%
VCU               15.10% 19.66% 17.57% 15.78% 12.56%  8.95%  5.10%  2.72%  1.40%  0.66%  0.31%  0.13%  0.05%  0.05%  0.01%        3.70    68.11% 98.84%
Duquesne           3.69% 13.28% 18.06% 18.34% 15.93% 12.22%  7.99%  4.90%  2.82%  1.51%  0.74%  0.37%  0.12%  0.12%  0.04%        4.62    53.36% 97.21%
Richmond           4.27% 11.82% 15.46% 16.49% 15.94% 13.78%  9.43%  5.74%  3.25%  1.89%  1.04%  0.54%  0.24%  0.24%  0.10%        4.87    48.04% 96.18%
George Mason       1.77%  5.82% 10.76% 15.10% 18.16% 18.05% 12.95%  7.78%  4.59%  2.53%  1.37%  0.68%  0.31%  0.31%  0.11%        5.56    33.45% 94.99%
St. Bonaventure    0.31%  1.31%  3.15%  5.82%  9.25% 12.56% 15.07% 14.29% 12.08%  9.49%  7.00%  4.86%  2.90%  2.90%  1.51%        7.97    10.59% 73.84%
Massachusetts      0.15%  0.69%  1.67%  2.98%  4.88%  7.45% 10.56% 12.82% 13.23% 12.47% 11.11%  9.20%  6.91%  6.91%  4.53%        9.43     5.48% 54.41%
Davidson           0.02%  0.17%  0.51%  1.28%  2.81%  5.81% 11.45% 14.65% 15.49% 14.14% 12.06%  9.55%  7.07%  7.07%  4.29%        9.75     1.97% 52.17%
George Washington  0.07%  0.33%  0.94%  1.94%  3.59%  5.81%  8.56% 11.04% 12.41% 12.91% 12.46% 11.37%  9.72%  9.72%  7.28%       10.16     3.27% 44.68%
Fordham            0.01%  0.08%  0.27%  0.68%  1.35%  2.72%  5.08%  7.86% 10.46% 12.99% 14.89% 15.44% 13.71% 13.71%  9.71%       11.14     1.05% 28.50%
Rhode Island       0.02%  0.06%  0.21%  0.56%  1.38%  2.97%  5.26%  7.76% 10.06% 12.16% 13.44% 13.88% 13.83% 13.83% 11.98%       11.23     0.85% 28.28%
La Salle           0.00%  0.02%  0.08%  0.20%  0.56%  1.27%  2.66%  4.54%  6.87%  9.02% 11.64% 14.54% 18.19% 18.19% 19.69%       12.17     0.30% 16.20%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.01%  0.05%  0.18%  0.45%  1.15%  2.34%  4.04%  6.06%  8.73% 11.33% 14.60% 17.89% 17.89% 22.23%       12.31     0.23% 14.27%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.03%  0.08%  0.24%  0.57%  1.20%  2.48%  4.80%  9.05%  9.05% 18.52%       13.62     0.00%  0.92%
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  #55  
Old 01-16-2023, 12:46 PM
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Still 96% likely to get a double bye... that is what we are working for now. Just get a top 4 seed in the A10 tourney and then win those three games...
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Old 01-19-2023, 11:27 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/18:

Code:

Dayton            54.74% 25.94% 11.66%  4.58%  1.89%  0.76%  0.29%  0.10%  0.03%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.77    96.93% 99.99%
Saint Louis       17.27% 24.68% 23.83% 16.42%  9.91%  4.42%  1.96%  0.90%  0.37%  0.15%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        3.07    82.20% 99.76%
VCU               21.56% 24.99% 18.87% 14.02%  9.89%  5.40%  2.84%  1.33%  0.65%  0.27%  0.12%  0.04%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        3.07    79.44% 99.56%
Richmond           3.97% 11.85% 17.70% 18.98% 16.38% 11.96%  8.19%  5.18%  2.93%  1.56%  0.73%  0.37%  0.15%  0.04%  0.00%        4.66    52.49% 97.14%
Duquesne           1.56%  8.15% 15.33% 19.45% 18.57% 14.20%  9.56%  6.01%  3.53%  1.97%  0.97%  0.47%  0.17%  0.06%  0.01%        5.06    44.49% 96.36%
George Mason       0.32%  1.51%  4.29%  8.43% 12.63% 16.57% 17.43% 14.56% 10.00%  6.50%  4.01%  2.24%  1.09%  0.38%  0.05%        6.97    14.55% 85.75%
St. Bonaventure    0.32%  1.60%  4.29%  8.73% 13.08% 16.38% 15.23% 12.48%  9.78%  7.22%  5.11%  3.14%  1.80%  0.72%  0.12%        7.11    14.95% 81.89%
George Washington  0.22%  0.90%  2.35%  4.93%  7.91% 11.35% 13.12% 13.14% 12.32% 10.83%  8.56%  6.76%  4.77%  2.52%  0.33%        8.30     8.40% 66.23%
Davidson           0.01%  0.09%  0.44%  1.30%  2.88%  5.66%  9.48% 13.09% 15.17% 14.97% 13.20% 10.47%  7.79%  4.75%  0.71%        9.62     1.83% 48.10%
Massachusetts      0.03%  0.16%  0.68%  1.54%  2.92%  4.89%  7.33% 10.33% 12.95% 13.89% 13.69% 12.20% 10.28%  6.94%  2.18%       10.02     2.41% 40.82%
Fordham            0.00%  0.06%  0.28%  0.76%  1.63%  3.02%  4.94%  7.48% 10.16% 13.00% 15.32% 15.90% 14.28%  9.14%  4.03%       10.79     1.11% 28.33%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.02%  0.15%  0.49%  1.10%  2.39%  4.29%  6.77%  9.49% 12.24% 15.09% 17.16% 16.49% 10.97%  3.37%       11.04     0.66% 24.70%
Rhode Island       0.01%  0.03%  0.12%  0.32%  1.04%  2.58%  4.44%  6.69%  9.31% 11.69% 13.66% 15.17% 15.69% 13.35%  5.90%       11.19     0.48% 24.55%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.05%  0.17%  0.40%  0.85%  1.80%  3.00%  4.86%  7.58% 12.05% 18.99% 31.12% 19.10%       12.97     0.07%  6.30%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.05%  0.14%  0.33%  0.84%  1.89%  4.01%  8.49% 20.03% 64.21%       14.36     0.00%  0.53%
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  #57  
Old 01-23-2023, 11:25 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/21:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Dayton            35.68% 32.70% 18.96%  7.42%  3.12%  1.31%  0.54%  0.18%  0.05%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.17    94.76% 99.97%
VCU               38.70% 27.33% 16.32%  8.55%  4.65%  2.36%  1.17%  0.52%  0.24%  0.10%  0.05%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.30    90.90% 99.83%
Saint Louis       21.71% 25.04% 25.51% 14.17%  7.10%  3.49%  1.56%  0.80%  0.35%  0.19%  0.07%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.85    86.43% 99.73%
Richmond           1.83%  5.95% 13.52% 18.92% 17.62% 14.05% 10.83%  7.26%  4.56%  2.78%  1.54%  0.77%  0.27%  0.10%  0.02%        5.36    40.21% 94.53%
Duquesne           0.62%  3.34%  8.83% 15.05% 17.44% 15.98% 13.38% 10.00%  6.68%  4.18%  2.43%  1.28%  0.56%  0.19%  0.04%        6.05    27.85% 91.32%
George Mason       0.54%  2.35%  6.81% 13.78% 16.52% 17.30% 15.39% 11.54%  7.25%  4.37%  2.41%  1.13%  0.45%  0.14%  0.02%        6.24    23.48% 91.47%
George Washington  0.73%  2.18%  5.42%  9.86% 12.32% 13.34% 12.75% 11.93% 10.47%  8.28%  5.81%  3.82%  2.18%  0.82%  0.08%        7.15    18.20% 79.01%
St. Bonaventure    0.15%  0.77%  2.66%  6.80% 10.15% 12.59% 13.66% 13.50% 12.10% 10.22%  7.50%  5.31%  3.11%  1.21%  0.26%        7.85    10.39% 72.39%
Davidson           0.01%  0.08%  0.55%  1.36%  3.15%  5.83%  9.37% 12.77% 14.62% 13.98% 12.84% 10.66%  8.43%  5.24%  1.11%        9.66     2.01% 47.75%
Fordham            0.03%  0.16%  0.82%  2.08%  3.77%  5.89%  8.09% 10.36% 12.76% 14.28% 13.82% 12.20%  9.17%  4.81%  1.76%        9.74     3.09% 43.96%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.03%  0.25%  0.80%  1.73%  3.25%  5.23%  7.74% 11.05% 14.51% 17.13% 16.56% 12.92%  6.77%  2.03%       10.56     1.08% 30.07%
Massachusetts      0.00%  0.05%  0.32%  1.01%  1.88%  3.18%  4.94%  7.46% 10.02% 12.67% 14.85% 16.12% 14.33%  9.45%  3.74%       10.76     1.37% 28.85%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.14%  0.38%  1.09%  2.29%  4.32%  6.98%  9.14% 11.99% 15.15% 18.94% 17.98% 11.55%       11.99     0.19% 15.24%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.05%  0.16%  0.35%  0.72%  1.43%  2.39%  4.12%  6.95% 11.62% 18.65% 29.35% 24.22%       13.15     0.05%  5.10%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.02%  0.08%  0.19%  0.49%  1.16%  2.62%  5.32% 10.99% 23.95% 55.18%       14.17     0.00%  0.79%
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  #58  
Old 01-23-2023, 01:11 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Still 96% likely to get a double bye... that is what we are working for now. Just get a top 4 seed in the A10 tourney and then win those three games...
Wasn't long ago we were 80% to win it and now we are 35%. 96% prediction to get the double bye the way this team has played the last 3 games shows the worthlessness of these predictions this early.

Bet away.
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  #59  
Old 01-23-2023, 01:47 PM
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Still 95%. Doesnt matter if we are #1 or #4, just get the double bye.

How many years were we the #1 or #2 seed and yet did not win the A10 tourney?
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  #60  
Old 01-23-2023, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
Wasn't long ago we were 80% to win it and now we are 35%. 96% prediction to get the double bye the way this team has played the last 3 games shows the worthlessness of these predictions this early.

Bet away.
Do you people understand how math works?

Anybody that criticizes these probabilities needs to sit down with a math textbook before they comment in this thread again.

If I flip a coin four times and each time it lands on heads, are you going to criticize me telling you it's 50-50 each flip?

There are additional metrics baked into this, but it's an exercise in efficiencies and probabilities. If you don't like KenPom numbers, that's cool. If you don't like probabilities, that's fine. But can folks stop coming into this thread and being ****y about the numbers? Everybody with two brain cells knows these aren't gospel. They're interesting all the same.
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  #61  
Old 01-23-2023, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by flyer016 View Post
Do you people understand how math works?
Marysville Flyer does not.
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  #62  
Old 01-23-2023, 10:14 PM
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This is essentially analytics, and its purest form, the above probabilities are correct. What analytics does not capture are trends in performance. Our trend is not our friend today. In each of the last three games we seemed to have morphed back into a slow offense with perimeter passing, little of an inside-outside game, essentially no dribble penetration, and a big man in Holmes who is now bottled up and unable to finish. Additionally, the Flyers were really exposed by dribble-penetration against a mediocre GW team. Prospective rivals are aware of this and we can expect more.
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  #63  
Old 01-24-2023, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Marysville Flyer does not.
Neither do you. You fail to recognize that it's equality of outcome that is the only thing that matters. No team in the A10 should have more than a 6.66666666666% chance at a 1 seed. In fact, each team should have a double bye, regardless of their record, that way . . . Sorry, I just couldn't resist.
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  #64  
Old 01-26-2023, 01:25 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/25:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
VCU               62.45% 23.36%  8.68%  3.38%  1.24%  0.51%  0.24%  0.09%  0.04%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.61    97.86% 99.98%
Saint Louis       23.30% 33.22% 22.53% 10.27%  5.22%  2.68%  1.41%  0.73%  0.39%  0.17%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        2.62    89.32% 99.74%
Dayton            11.51% 30.18% 28.81% 15.23%  7.33%  3.56%  1.75%  0.86%  0.47%  0.18%  0.10%  0.03%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        3.04    85.72% 99.68%
George Washington  1.43%  4.65% 11.50% 14.88% 14.02% 12.66% 10.57%  8.98%  7.41%  5.59%  3.97%  2.51%  1.42%  0.40%  0.02%        6.17    32.45% 86.10%
Duquesne           0.51%  2.47%  7.03% 13.09% 14.97% 14.59% 13.18% 11.04%  8.63%  6.47%  4.20%  2.43%  1.08%  0.29%  0.02%        6.58    23.10% 85.50%
George Mason       0.11%  1.45%  6.13% 13.15% 16.15% 16.09% 14.03% 11.22%  8.44%  5.89%  3.76%  2.18%  1.08%  0.31%  0.03%        6.60    20.84% 86.77%
Richmond           0.40%  2.62%  7.27% 12.49% 14.18% 14.00% 12.61% 10.83%  8.81%  6.80%  4.83%  3.07%  1.49%  0.54%  0.09%        6.73    22.77% 83.19%
Fordham            0.26%  1.38%  4.65%  8.87% 11.13% 12.18% 12.59% 12.23% 11.05%  9.33%  7.25%  5.25%  2.89%  0.80%  0.14%        7.54    15.15% 74.33%
Davidson           0.02%  0.21%  0.98%  2.47%  4.50%  6.94%  9.54% 11.66% 12.86% 13.42% 13.29% 11.99%  9.24%  2.64%  0.27%        9.38     3.67% 49.16%
St. Bonaventure    0.02%  0.19%  1.02%  2.65%  4.52%  5.90%  7.76%  9.77% 11.35% 13.03% 13.83% 13.41% 11.25%  4.44%  0.87%        9.71     3.87% 43.17%
Massachusetts      0.01%  0.22%  1.08%  2.40%  4.09%  5.81%  7.86%  9.56% 11.50% 12.63% 13.43% 13.02% 11.25%  5.78%  1.37%        9.81     3.70% 42.53%
Saint Joseph's     0.00%  0.02%  0.12%  0.62%  1.43%  2.70%  4.35%  6.39%  9.08% 12.41% 15.79% 18.79% 18.40%  8.09%  1.81%       10.92     0.76% 24.71%
Rhode Island       0.01%  0.05%  0.21%  0.49%  1.15%  2.20%  3.71%  5.87%  8.51% 11.30% 14.17% 16.89% 19.14% 11.66%  4.65%       11.25     0.76% 22.19%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.03%  0.08%  0.19%  0.37%  0.69%  1.24%  2.26%  4.13%  7.59% 15.42% 40.81% 27.19%       13.60     0.03%  2.60%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.04%  0.08%  0.23%  0.50%  1.20%  2.83%  7.32% 24.24% 63.55%       14.43     0.00%  0.36%
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  #65  
Old 01-26-2023, 02:39 PM
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98% for double bye...
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  #66  
Old 01-26-2023, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
98% for double bye...
No, 86% now.
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  #67  
Old 01-26-2023, 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
No, 86% now.
Oh ****, I was adding up the top line... I didnt look to see that it was no longer us... maybe wishful thinking
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  #68  
Old 01-30-2023, 11:37 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/29:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Saint Louis       38.65% 29.02% 20.47%  7.30%  2.60%  1.11%  0.47%  0.20%  0.11%  0.04%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.14    95.45% 99.94%
VCU               36.52% 30.10% 17.63%  8.04%  3.84%  1.93%  0.98%  0.49%  0.25%  0.12%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        2.28    92.29% 99.79%
Dayton            22.95% 31.08% 28.97%  9.92%  4.01%  1.69%  0.78%  0.35%  0.15%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.53    92.91% 99.90%
Fordham            0.74%  2.90%  8.84% 17.52% 15.50% 12.76% 10.43%  8.53%  6.88%  5.59%  4.64%  3.33%  2.03%  0.30%  0.03%        6.38    29.99% 84.08%
George Washington  0.67%  3.19%  7.69% 12.84% 14.14% 12.50% 11.32%  9.72%  8.27%  6.62%  5.38%  4.22%  2.68%  0.74%  0.02%        6.80    24.39% 80.34%
Duquesne           0.20%  1.05%  4.13% 10.08% 12.21% 13.37% 12.60% 11.86% 10.46%  8.79%  7.05%  5.00%  2.48%  0.71%  0.03%        7.42    15.45% 75.93%
Richmond           0.09%  0.85%  3.77% 10.36% 11.77% 11.97% 11.62% 11.05% 10.57%  9.81%  8.33%  5.75%  2.89%  1.00%  0.18%        7.63    15.07% 72.05%
St. Bonaventure    0.12%  0.95%  3.64%  8.30% 10.63% 11.40% 11.83% 11.08% 10.12%  9.63%  8.60%  7.09%  5.12%  1.37%  0.13%        7.94    13.00% 68.06%
George Mason       0.02%  0.31%  1.88%  6.34%  9.10% 10.81% 11.63% 12.69% 12.55% 11.71%  9.93%  7.48%  4.22%  1.19%  0.16%        8.28     8.54% 65.32%
Massachusetts      0.04%  0.33%  1.58%  3.90%  6.04%  7.61%  9.19% 10.37% 11.41% 12.25% 12.42% 11.72%  9.03%  3.49%  0.63%        9.22     5.85% 50.47%
Saint Joseph's     0.01%  0.12%  0.81%  2.85%  5.28%  7.52%  9.09% 10.76% 11.77% 12.49% 13.10% 12.76% 10.25%  2.83%  0.35%        9.42     3.79% 48.22%
Davidson           0.00%  0.03%  0.33%  1.73%  3.32%  4.75%  6.21%  7.51%  9.46% 11.48% 13.87% 17.56% 18.98%  4.38%  0.38%       10.34     2.09% 33.34%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.07%  0.28%  0.81%  1.52%  2.44%  3.59%  4.90%  7.05%  9.81% 13.52% 18.60% 25.62%  9.34%  2.45%       11.25     1.16% 20.66%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.06%  0.13%  0.23%  0.43%  0.82%  1.29%  2.44%  4.66% 10.57% 49.07% 30.30%       13.88     0.02%  1.67%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.02%  0.06%  0.14%  0.29%  0.63%  1.78%  6.11% 25.59% 65.36%       14.51     0.00%  0.24%
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  #69  
Old 01-30-2023, 12:00 PM
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93% to get the double bye.... wow this is a down year for the A10
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  #70  
Old 01-30-2023, 12:02 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/29:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
Saint Louis       38.65% 29.02% 20.47%  7.30%  2.60%  1.11%  0.47%  0.20%  0.11%  0.04%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.14    95.45% 99.94%
VCU               36.52% 30.10% 17.63%  8.04%  3.84%  1.93%  0.98%  0.49%  0.25%  0.12%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        2.28    92.29% 99.79%
Dayton            22.95% 31.08% 28.97%  9.92%  4.01%  1.69%  0.78%  0.35%  0.15%  0.06%  0.02%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.53    92.91% 99.90%
Fordham            0.74%  2.90%  8.84% 17.52% 15.50% 12.76% 10.43%  8.53%  6.88%  5.59%  4.64%  3.33%  2.03%  0.30%  0.03%        6.38    29.99% 84.08%
George Washington  0.67%  3.19%  7.69% 12.84% 14.14% 12.50% 11.32%  9.72%  8.27%  6.62%  5.38%  4.22%  2.68%  0.74%  0.02%        6.80    24.39% 80.34%
Duquesne           0.20%  1.05%  4.13% 10.08% 12.21% 13.37% 12.60% 11.86% 10.46%  8.79%  7.05%  5.00%  2.48%  0.71%  0.03%        7.42    15.45% 75.93%
Richmond           0.09%  0.85%  3.77% 10.36% 11.77% 11.97% 11.62% 11.05% 10.57%  9.81%  8.33%  5.75%  2.89%  1.00%  0.18%        7.63    15.07% 72.05%
St. Bonaventure    0.12%  0.95%  3.64%  8.30% 10.63% 11.40% 11.83% 11.08% 10.12%  9.63%  8.60%  7.09%  5.12%  1.37%  0.13%        7.94    13.00% 68.06%
George Mason       0.02%  0.31%  1.88%  6.34%  9.10% 10.81% 11.63% 12.69% 12.55% 11.71%  9.93%  7.48%  4.22%  1.19%  0.16%        8.28     8.54% 65.32%
Massachusetts      0.04%  0.33%  1.58%  3.90%  6.04%  7.61%  9.19% 10.37% 11.41% 12.25% 12.42% 11.72%  9.03%  3.49%  0.63%        9.22     5.85% 50.47%
Saint Joseph's     0.01%  0.12%  0.81%  2.85%  5.28%  7.52%  9.09% 10.76% 11.77% 12.49% 13.10% 12.76% 10.25%  2.83%  0.35%        9.42     3.79% 48.22%
Davidson           0.00%  0.03%  0.33%  1.73%  3.32%  4.75%  6.21%  7.51%  9.46% 11.48% 13.87% 17.56% 18.98%  4.38%  0.38%       10.34     2.09% 33.34%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.07%  0.28%  0.81%  1.52%  2.44%  3.59%  4.90%  7.05%  9.81% 13.52% 18.60% 25.62%  9.34%  2.45%       11.25     1.16% 20.66%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.06%  0.13%  0.23%  0.43%  0.82%  1.29%  2.44%  4.66% 10.57% 49.07% 30.30%       13.88     0.02%  1.67%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.02%  0.06%  0.14%  0.29%  0.63%  1.78%  6.11% 25.59% 65.36%       14.51     0.00%  0.24%
Fordham, GW, and Duquesne in the mix for the double bye. What a world.
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  #71  
Old 01-30-2023, 02:45 PM
Glen Clark Glen Clark is offline
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Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86 View Post
Fordham, GW, and Duquesne in the mix for the double bye. What a world.

Flyers hold the tie-breaker over Duquesne, lose the tie-breaker to GW, with Fordham yet to be determined.
Fordham could be the sleeper of the A10 this year.

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  #72  
Old 01-30-2023, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Flyers hold the tie-breaker over Duquesne, lose the tie-breaker to GW, with Fordham yet to be determined.
Fordham could be the sleeper of the A10 this year.

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We beat Fordham Jan 10 at Fordham. Would have the tie-breaker over them.
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  #73  
Old 02-02-2023, 04:19 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/1:

Code:

Team                1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th    6th    7th    8th    9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th   15th Average SeedDouble Bye   Bye
VCU               51.80% 26.71% 12.26%  5.17%  2.44%  0.96%  0.41%  0.15%  0.07%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        1.86    95.94% 99.97%
Saint Louis       24.56% 29.42% 24.63% 13.77%  4.53%  1.77%  0.75%  0.33%  0.14%  0.08%  0.03%  0.01%  0.01%  0.00%  0.00%        2.56    92.38% 99.88%
Dayton            20.86% 32.71% 26.95% 10.45%  5.12%  2.23%  0.98%  0.42%  0.19%  0.06%  0.02%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%        2.61    90.98% 99.92%
Fordham            1.98%  6.19% 17.42% 25.02% 16.30% 10.78%  7.59%  5.38%  3.80%  2.49%  1.68%  0.92%  0.40%  0.06%  0.01%        5.04    50.61% 94.45%
St. Bonaventure    0.41%  2.18%  6.84% 14.28% 19.39% 16.77% 13.06%  9.39%  6.61%  4.88%  3.11%  1.86%  0.93%  0.30%  0.02%        6.28    23.70% 88.92%
Duquesne           0.16%  1.03%  3.98%  8.99% 13.21% 14.19% 13.29% 12.00% 10.31%  8.44%  6.75%  4.32%  2.34%  0.94%  0.05%        7.38    14.16% 77.16%
George Mason       0.02%  0.45%  2.49%  7.22% 10.40% 13.24% 14.86% 15.18% 13.46% 10.10%  6.60%  3.72%  1.62%  0.57%  0.06%        7.63    10.19% 77.33%
George Washington  0.17%  0.88%  2.76%  6.41% 11.00% 12.62% 12.85% 11.88% 10.57%  9.47%  8.00%  6.67%  4.71%  1.93%  0.08%        7.99    10.23% 69.15%
Saint Joseph's     0.02%  0.16%  1.01%  3.49%  7.63% 11.04% 13.06% 14.12% 13.90% 12.26% 10.45%  7.76%  3.72%  1.26%  0.13%        8.50     4.68% 64.43%
Richmond           0.01%  0.11%  0.82%  2.60%  4.85%  7.54%  9.71% 11.52% 12.95% 14.31% 14.79% 10.56%  6.27%  3.17%  0.77%        9.29     3.55% 50.13%
Massachusetts      0.01%  0.12%  0.67%  1.67%  2.96%  4.77%  6.79%  9.57% 12.72% 15.28% 14.98% 13.07% 10.10%  6.00%  1.30%       10.00     2.47% 39.27%
Davidson           0.00%  0.00%  0.06%  0.62%  1.45%  2.58%  3.97%  5.54%  7.85% 10.58% 14.28% 19.76% 21.94% 10.21%  1.19%       11.14     0.68% 22.06%
Rhode Island       0.00%  0.02%  0.09%  0.30%  0.62%  1.15%  2.00%  3.31%  5.10%  8.38% 12.87% 20.14% 25.91% 15.00%  5.10%       11.88     0.41% 12.60%
La Salle           0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.02%  0.11%  0.36%  0.66%  1.15%  2.22%  3.35%  5.62%  9.14% 15.89% 41.72% 19.74%       13.28     0.03%  4.54%
Loyola Chicago     0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.00%  0.01%  0.02%  0.05%  0.13%  0.31%  0.82%  2.08%  6.17% 18.85% 71.56%       14.56     0.00%  0.20%
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