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12-10-2015, 01:40 PM
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Can You Say Trap Game?
This is a classic trap game with a solid Chattanooga team with an RPI of 38.
With the talk of being ranked in today's paper it would be easy to just show up on Saturday.
Hopefully the team will get Archie's message loud and clear.
GO FLYERS :
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12-10-2015, 01:54 PM
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Yes and no. While Chattanooga isn't a common opponent, I think these guys know Chatanooga is good and they'll be ready. I think W&M or Monmouth were more "trap games" b/c we were caught looking ahead a little bit.
To me this is just the 2nd tough game in a row before a week off.
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12-10-2015, 01:57 PM
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They're good, and they have a lot to play for. This is the kind of win that gives them the kind of profile that could land them in the NCAA Tournament even if they slip up in the SoCon Tournament. They blew it against ULM the other night and are almost out of strikes, but the opportunity certainly is there.
This is the third Under the Radar team that Dayton has played that's good. North Florida isn't at-large bid good and they have absolutely no size, but they're still a pretty good team. William & Mary and Chattanooga could be #12 seeds or better in the NCAA Tournament.
I guess you could say it's the fourth if you count Monmouth, but I'm not entirely sold on them yet. I think they're one of the better teams in the Metro Atlantic. I don't think that they're so good that they'll run through it (17-1 or 16-2) and be in a position to end up inside the bubble if they don't win the conference tournament. Maybe they are, but they looked less than impressive at Canisius and Niagara last week. I think they're a decent team that had an outstanding week against really good teams, but that they don't have the ability to bring it like that each and every night the way UTC and W&M do.
They're also polar opposites. Chattanooga loves to push the pace, and they have quite a bit of depth. They also have two outstanding outside shooters (who's names I can't remember).
Dayton is better, but they're not so much better that they can overlook them. Like W&M, if you overlook them they will beat you.
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12-10-2015, 02:17 PM
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Chatt. is a very very very balanced team..They have 8 guys, yes 8, that average over 7 ppg, shoot almost 49%, and hold opponents under 43%..
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12-10-2015, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by 224
Yes and no. While Chattanooga isn't a common opponent, I think these guys know Chatanooga is good and they'll be ready. I think W&M or Monmouth were more "trap games" b/c we were caught looking ahead a little bit.
To me this is just the 2nd tough game in a row before a week off.
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Well, good is relative. I think Tony T is correct that this could be a trap game. Coming off what is the 2nd biggest win of the season(1st being Iowa and there aren't trap games that follow a first round win in a tournament), this would be a classic trap game. Yes, they know Chattanooga is good, but it's very easy to let up a little, on your home court where you haven't lost since Donald Trump was just a TV star with money, right after a huge win. Trap games can happen against good teams too.
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12-10-2015, 03:15 PM
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Unless our players pay absolutely no attention to college basketball as a whole (I highly doubt that) this should not be a trap game. This is another opportunity for a resume building win. They should want it as much as they wanted it last night if not more since they are protecting their home court.
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12-10-2015, 03:27 PM
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82% chance to win which means we lose this game 1/5. Predicted to win 76-66. This is a trap game -- think back 2 years to @Illinois State -- exactly the same kind of game except UD is playing at UD Arena which is huge.
BTW, UD is favored in all of its remaining games except @ Rhode Island and @ Richmond and projecting somewhere between 23-7 and 24-6.
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12-10-2015, 03:33 PM
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At this point, they all are trap games.
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12-10-2015, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin
82% chance to win which means we lose this game 1/5. Predicted to win 76-66. This is a trap game -- think back 2 years to @Illinois State -- exactly the same kind of game except UD is playing at UD Arena which is huge.
BTW, UD is favored in all of its remaining games except @Rhode Island and @Richmond and projecting somewhere between 23-7 and 24-6.
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So this means we are expected to lose anywhere from 3 to 6 games that we are expected to win? Hope not, that won't bode well on our resume.
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12-10-2015, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
So this means we are expected to lose anywhere from 3 to 6 games that we are expected to win? Hope not, that won't bode well on our resume.
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Games are at percentage win chance so if you have a 66% chance of winning versus three teams you will be favored in all the games but your expected record is 2-1. Sagarin has Dayton at 24-6 and kenpom has Dayton at 23-7. Both have OOC at 11-1 and difference is sagarin at 14-4 and kenpom at 13-5 in the A-10.
If Dayton finishes 24-6, RPI around 15 and if finishes 23-7, RPI around 20. AT 24-6, prediction is 5-2 versus top 50 (versus 1-3 last year).
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Dayton.html
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12-10-2015, 05:05 PM
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Archie will not let this be a trap game.
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12-10-2015, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin
Games are at percentage win chance so if you have a 66% chance of winning versus three teams you will be favored in all the games but your expected record is 2-1. Sagarin has Dayton at 24-6 and kenpom has Dayton at 23-7. Both have OOC at 11-1 and difference is sagarin at 14-4 and kenpom at 13-5 in the A-10.
If Dayton finishes 24-6, RPI around 15 and if finishes 23-7, RPI around 20. AT 24-6, prediction is 5-2 versus top 50 (versus 1-3 last year).
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Dayton.html
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Makes sense. So assumption of 22 games left and of the 20 we're favored in, we should lose 6 or 7? And the two we're underdogs in we have about a 52 percent chance of winning one of those.
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12-10-2015, 05:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill McPeek
Archie will not let this be a trap game.
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Which game will Archie let be a trap game?
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12-10-2015, 05:17 PM
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Trap game. No doubt.
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12-10-2015, 05:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
Well, good is relative. I think Tony T is correct that this could be a trap game. Coming off what is the 2nd biggest win of the season(1st being Iowa and there aren't trap games that follow a first round win in a tournament), this would be a classic trap game. Yes, they know Chattanooga is good, but it's very easy to let up a little, on your home court where you haven't lost since Donald Trump was just a TV star with money, right after a huge win. Trap games can happen against good teams too.
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You must be the ruler on deciding what is and isn't a trap game. Are there rules we missed somewhere?
Advocare Invitational wasn't the NCAA tournament. I agree in a lose or go home setting, you play like there's no tomorrow. But having just beat Iowa and know if you beat Monmouth you get _avier, Monmouth definitely had the potential to be a trap game with our guys looking ahead.
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12-10-2015, 05:54 PM
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Originally Posted by 224
You must be the ruler on deciding what is and isn't a trap game. Are there rules we missed somewhere?
Advocare Invitational wasn't the NCAA tournament. I agree in a lose or go home setting, you play like there's no tomorrow. But having just beat Iowa and know if you beat Monmouth you get _avier, Monmouth definitely had the potential to be a trap game with our guys looking ahead.
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It's called an opinion and everything that follows is an opinion m'kay? And from now on, on this board, if I don't state that something is fact, I am stating an opinion. Hopefully this will prevent another tantrum.
Trap games and motivation go hand in hand. Going to Orlando and playing on national TV trying to win the title, I don't care if they're playing against the Captain and Tannile, they aren't going to let up. Maybe if they lost against Iowa and were down, that could've been a trap game.
A trap game happens when you're coming off a high like last nights game and playing an opponent that looks like all your other ordinary opponents that you've had success against. Or it could be after losing against top opponent and the momentum is sucked out of you.
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12-10-2015, 07:04 PM
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Tony, Archie said he hopes the Flyers don't crack the top 25 off this win in one of the Vandy site articles. He said they play better as the underdog.
With a top 25 ranking they all become trap games going forward, more or less. This is the 1st in what hopefully is a loooooong stretch of trap games :wink: Iron sharpens iron. Go Flyers!
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12-10-2015, 07:10 PM
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I don't think anybody was looking past Monmouth knowing that they had just beaten Notre Dame and had previously beaten UCLA.
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12-10-2015, 09:49 PM
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Originally Posted by steve
Chatt. is a very very very balanced team..They have 8 guys, yes 8, that average over 7 ppg, shoot almost 49%, and hold opponents under 43%..
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And they play 10 or 11 guys. Weakness - not much size or beefiness.
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12-10-2015, 09:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
Which game will Archie let be a trap game?
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NONE.
TRUST in Archie Miller. Stud Coach!
Should and will be recognized as a top 10 Coach in the next 2 years.
Mark those words down.
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12-11-2015, 09:59 AM
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I am not nearly as worried about this team and how they will play, on the averages, under AM. So far this year, other than the X undressing, the team has come to play...when the didn't play well in the first half, they typically show up in the second half. AM is a game changer and adjusts on the fly. Previously, it would have been to force feed a system for 40 minutes. If you look at 2nd half performances under AM, they aren't typically worse than any 1st half that I have witnessed.
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12-11-2015, 10:01 AM
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When every game is a trap game, no game is a trap game.
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12-11-2015, 12:22 PM
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Let's see...Mocs go into the break up by 10 and the team responds "Coach, it's a trap and there's not much we can do about it!"
Feast or famine doesn't alter the character of an individual or group, and I firmly believe we have a team of sound character! Trap brewing for tomorrow? Nah.
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12-11-2015, 12:45 PM
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Relating character, success, and human nature and how they all meld to make mental traps as sports go, in the following post. Forgive me for the football reference.
Something altered tOSU's performance on the field this season and the team is loaded with high-character players. Success doomed them. If you could've erased the national championship they won last year from their memories, I feel that group would be in the F4 this season. If not for the Trap Season.
It's a stigma only the John Woodens and Vince Lombardis have overcome in sports. To eliminate a trap you win all the games in which you're favored. Their teams overcame the mental aspect that makes up a trap game.
The rest continue to have nightmares I think.
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12-11-2015, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by FLYER5
Relating character, success, and human nature and how they all meld to make mental traps as sports go, in the following post. Forgive me for the football reference.
Something altered tOSU's performance on the field this season and the team is loaded with high-character players. Success doomed them. If you could've erased the national championship they won last year from their memories, I feel that group would be in the F4 this season. If not for the Trap Season.
It's a stigma only the John Woodens and Vince Lombardis have overcome in sports. To eliminate a trap you win all the games in which you're favored. Their teams overcame the mental aspect that makes up a trap game.
The rest continue to have nightmares I think.
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Sometimes teams are favored in all games. Is it really a trap game if they lose one of them? Because it's rare in most sports, college basketball included, when a team goes undefeated. A human being can have all the proper character, emotion and motivation going into a game and still have that day where the shots are banging off the rim. The flow of the game and the frustration of things not working for one or two then effects the rest of the team who change their mindset to try and over compensate.
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12-11-2015, 03:43 PM
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To me a trap game means coming off a good win, and looking past the next game to the one after. Doubt any is looking ahead to Furman. Chattanooga is good. It should have their attention.
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12-11-2015, 03:53 PM
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Casey Jones
UTC's leading scorer, rebounder and assist player will miss the Dayton game after suffering an ankle injury in practice today according to the times free press.com.
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12-11-2015, 03:58 PM
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Now even more of a trap game.
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12-11-2015, 03:58 PM
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With the leading scorer out, Mocs have a little bigger hill to climb. I look for the Flyers to continue to play well and go to 8-1
Last edited by UD62; 12-11-2015 at 04:02 PM..
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12-11-2015, 04:50 PM
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Flyers at -9.5 tomorrow
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12-11-2015, 05:17 PM
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Originally Posted by UDDoug
To me a trap game means coming off a good win, and looking past the next game to the one after. Doubt any is looking ahead to Furman. Chattanooga is good. It should have their attention.
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Losing to someone of lower caliber, or mistakenly perceived lower caliber of itself does not make it a trap game.
IMO, a trap game is so named after the typical trap that snaps shut over the mouse. Goes to the baited middle without foreseeing the danger.
For a game to be considered a so named trap requires a 'bigger' game before and after, wherefore the danger inbetween is overlooked.
This is not to say one cannot anticipate the team not being ready, only to say there is no classic assimilation of a trap. (otherwise most of the games can be perceivable traps, thus making the term meaningless)
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12-11-2015, 05:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
Sometimes teams are favored in all games. Is it really a trap game if they lose one of them? Because it's rare in most sports, college basketball included, when a team goes undefeated. A human being can have all the proper character, emotion and motivation going into a game and still have that day where the shots are banging off the rim. The flow of the game and the frustration of things not working for one or two then effects the rest of the team who change their mindset to try and over compensate.
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You encapsulated a big reason for the intrigue of sports with the comment that "...shots are banging off the rim."
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12-11-2015, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1
IMO, a trap game is so named after the typical trap that snaps shut over the mouse. Goes to the baited middle without foreseeing the danger.
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I actually thought the same but if you look up the definition, most define it as a game before or after a big game, so either overlooking or letdown makes it a trap game.
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12-12-2015, 12:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Alberto Strasse
UTC's leading scorer, rebounder and assist player will miss the Dayton game after suffering an ankle injury in practice today according to the times free press.com.
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Dayton's leading scorer and rebounder will be unavailable too (again).
Even playing field. No whining.
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12-12-2015, 09:21 AM
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Their leading scorer being out actually scares me a bit. How many times in sports history have we seen this happen and everyone else on the team steps up, plays career games, and they go home with a W. TrueTeam, Mocs style ?
Yea, I do not believe what I typed above enough to change my prediction in the predict the score thread. Flyers by 18.
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12-12-2015, 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
When every game is a trap game, no game is a trap game.
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Sun Tzu, Chapter 4
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12-12-2015, 11:48 AM
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Archie, again, describes this game as "scary". He knows every game is scary this season. The team knows what happens if they play like they did vs XU--disaster. I think they'll be OK, even after the big win on Weds. They know what happens if they let up. BUT we need a game with TWO good halves so we can breathe the whole time, lol. The fans will be out in go droves tonight. I've been wearing my game shirts since I got up this morning. Go Flyers!
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12-12-2015, 07:45 PM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan
Their leading scorer being out actually scares me a bit. How many times in sports history have we seen this happen and everyone else on the team steps up, plays career games, and they go home with a W. TrueTeam, Mocs style ?
Yea, I do not believe what I typed above enough to change my prediction in the predict the score thread. Flyers by 18.
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Nope
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12-12-2015, 09:14 PM
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Yes.
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12-12-2015, 09:18 PM
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Trap game.
Crap game.
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12-12-2015, 09:21 PM
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Total team effort in the loss. Pollard tried - (albeit missed free throws)
but not much help from anywhere else-
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12-12-2015, 09:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer69ers
Total team effort in the loss. Pollard tried - (albeit missed free throws)
but not much help from anywhere else-
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Pollard had 3 rebounds in like 35 minutes = awful effort. He had effort on offense, but not so much on the glass.
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12-12-2015, 09:26 PM
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We need consistency, someone needs to step up. Or Pierre needs to take over.
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12-12-2015, 09:33 PM
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The first game I can say we missed Jordan Sibert. Kyle's shot at the end, scary as it was, was half way down.
I love KP but his game is such an enigma when he can't hit his shots while he's being fouled. His inaccuracy from the stripe is as glaring a weakness as Kyle's 3-PT inaccuracy. Add that to the overall lack of urgency, that Tony so smartly pointed out, and you get beat by good teams such as this. Hats off to Chattanooga. They hung close the whole way which let them have a chance at the end. I imagine that ending the 26-game homecourt winning streak spurred an adrenaline rush as the clock wound down. The Flyers had a chance to break it open a couple times but they just didn't seem to fire.
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12-12-2015, 09:54 PM
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All Hale Tony T! He and only he saw this coming.
Today, Tony, the Roundtable belongs to you!
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12-12-2015, 11:31 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Bluffton, SC
Posts: 22,164
Thanks: 17,554
Thanked 10,134 Times in 5,868 Posts
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Originally Posted by jack72
Trap game. No doubt.
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Unfortunately I am not surprised. I was traveling so did not see it, but reading the stats and comments it was exactly how a letdown happens. Very hard prevent it as a coach or a player. It is not about effort. It is about the psychology of overconfidence and other intangibles.
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2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to jack72 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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12-13-2015, 12:40 AM
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Kettering, Ohio
Posts: 3,329
Thanks: 6,764
Thanked 1,645 Times in 683 Posts
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Originally Posted by rollo
All Hale Tony T! He and only he saw this coming.
Today, Tony, the Roundtable belongs to you!
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Wish I would have been wrong...20% from 3 and 50% from the ft line just won't cut it.
__________________
Heart Transplant Sept 21, 2018 Amen
Cancer Survivor Amen
Last edited by Tony T 71; 12-13-2015 at 01:38 AM..
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