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12-16-2015, 10:10 AM
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Colonel
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Bombs Away
So, Ken Pomeroy recently had a great blog post that correlates directly to some issues Dayton has been having this year.
I've been wondering why Dayton is so good guarding 2’s (13th in the country) and so terrible at guarding 3s (315th in the country). I mean opponents are shooting 40% from behind and inside the arc. That’s crazy.
And the answer I believe is two-fold. One is that of the 8 teams they have played so far 6 of them are top 100 in 3FG% and 4 are top 50. And second is that they are not limiting those looks. They are 228th in 3FGA/FGA – 37% of opponents shots are 3s.
So in his most recent blog post he noted that past 2FG% is more of a predictor for 3FG% than even past 3FG%. That’s really interesting. And if it holds Dayton opponents should regress to the mean and miss more 3s. Especially because they only play 6 more games all year against top100 3FG%.
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12-16-2015, 10:16 AM
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Saw Vandy game and haven't seen much else the past 3 or 4 .
Are we missing hedges? not rotating? guards aren't pressuring shooters or closing out?
Why the big number of treys?
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12-16-2015, 10:20 AM
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Makes me wonder whether the future opponents who are poorer at 3pt% are way up there in offensive rebounding and second chance points. A little like pushing on a tub of balloons.
Think we all remember the BG "chuck it and chase it" offense.
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12-16-2015, 12:23 PM
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Perhaps we are just playing a bunch of good teams. SOS is #10 in the country.
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12-16-2015, 01:01 PM
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I thought Flyer opponents (especially Iowa and NF) hit some contested threes. Flyers outside of Kendall have not really made any of these all year, nor would you expect them to do so.
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12-16-2015, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer
...the BG "chuck it and chase it" offense.
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, hadn't heard that descripton before.
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12-16-2015, 03:29 PM
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We sag too much. With Steve in there, that shouldn't be necessary, especially against teams known for their three-point shooting.
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12-16-2015, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
, hadn't heard that descripton before.
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BG was quoted as saying, " Sometimes I think our best offensive approach is to drive, shoot, and hit the boards." Of course that was around the time we had the 40" vertical club.
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12-16-2015, 04:59 PM
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I thought something like this was taking place. The Iowa and Monmouth games especially stand out as these guys weren't just standing around wide open nailing easy 3s, they were exceptional shots most of the time. I also don't think 3 point percentage truly reflects on defense, while I do think the amount of 3s given up does. The majority of 3 point shots aren't contested much, so the chances are a great 3 point shooter standing around by himself shooting shots from around the arc will not make more than 50 percent. Once they start moving around and have to shoot them spontaneously, that percentage starts to drop drastically.
If the Flyers are going to worry and work on anything to do with 3 point shooting, it needs to be on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively I think it will work itself out.
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12-16-2015, 06:17 PM
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Also believe that DP's presence, both inside and out, will facilitate that improvement from 3pt. Our guys have not been getting to their spots outside, and the ball isn't getting to them quick enough on the occasion that they do get there soon enough.
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12-16-2015, 07:01 PM
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While our opponents are making .388 of their 3's against us, they're making .371 against the rest of the world. In other words, them boys is shooters.
Also, Archie says he has stressed to the team that one of their main defensive concerns is keeping Big Steve out of foul trouble. I remember early in the Vandy game seeing Scoochie leaving his plus-40% 3-shooter man open for a straight-on 3 to run under the basket because he thought someone might be driving on Steve.
It didn't work out that time, but the game came out OK.
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12-16-2015, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 86
Saw Vandy game and haven't seen much else the past 3 or 4 .
Are we missing hedges? not rotating? guards aren't pressuring shooters or closing out?
Why the big number of treys?
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It happens a bunch, but MANY times that I witness an easy bucket on the pick and roll, I look and see a post player in no man's land, particular Steve.
I think it boils down to this...we get burnt on a layup off a pick and roll...Steve/Pollard...coach gets on their asses about guarding the man to the bucket...next time it gets overplayed...guards are smarter than our posts on said screen...the picker flares and they end up with an easy 3 ball as our interior D is still doubling the ball and not seeing that both are guarded.
The UTC game...final possession for UTC...I called it...the big came up offset top of the key...I said to myself "here it comes"...sets a ball screen and the guard blows by steve to get to the bucket...THIS CAN'T HAPPEN. It happened because the ballhandler wasn't forced to a sideline...
Also...the anomaly this year so far...our bigs can't guard a ball screen...and it just so happens that the opponents have had nimble bigs that can knock down a perimeter shot. Issues are two fold and they deal with our bigs not guarding a screen and either getting blown by or miscommunication is leading to flares for open 3's.
I like Steve a ton...but he has gotten by on his length defensively. He is a great shot blocker and his timing is very good. He WILL get better. Remember CW? Great helpside...had major trouble guarding the ball at times...and he ended up being one of the best to wear a Flyer uniform. Steve will waltz up guarding the screener and gets too upright...he can't react to the ballhandler and gets blow by. He has to get low and flatten out. I think he is scared against shooters, as he fears the immediate jumper off the ball screen. He needs to be more worried about guys getting to the bucket...leads to fouls and layups...skip to the 1:40 mark of this video...
If you look at this possession...2 guys involved in screening action, one defender should be denying the guy one pass away, we have a guy 2 passes away that is where he should be in the lane and SS is sucked out onto the wing. Steve doesn't stop the ball from getting the edge, our baseline defender is standing around hoping the ball doesn't get kicked to the corner, and SS and the baseline defender are a step and a half away from doing anything productive other than seeing that THEIR guy doesn't get the ball and a shot off. In a perfect world, the baseline defender gets over to stop ball and the guy that was one pass away, sags into the paint to get a hand in the face of either guy on the perimeter that may end up with the ball if the guy advancing to the bucket is stopped. Team defense is VERY complex at times, but the key is communication. Guys have to know where shooters are at and who they need to rotate to on the wing/perimeter if/when penetration is stopped. If what I type is Chinese...youtube team defense, 5-4 shell drill, defensive rotation, etc...you will see what I am trying to explain. Tom Izzo has some good videos out there and I will guarantee that Archie is teaching the guys what is right...it just boils down to executing team defense against well coached offenses that utilize the ball screen and can move the ball well.
Disclaimer...not knowing what the strengths are of the UTC guys are at the time...instructions very well may have been for SS to guarantee that his guy didn't get the ball...but in ANY event...this ball screen has to be defended...we are getting hammered on it.
Last edited by shocka43; 12-16-2015 at 07:36 PM..
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12-16-2015, 09:24 PM
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2 comments.
1) Steve is young and has played in less than 10 games in college career. He has a long way to go. Other teams with good post players and good guards have discovered his weaknesses. That said, he is further along than any other freshman (redshirt or not) post player that I have ever seen at UD. He needs to learn how to defend the pick and roll better. No doubt. I am confident he will. Archie is already working on it.
2) Steve is not the only problem. The guards are letting the offensive player blow by them at times and Steve is not experienced as what to do in that situation. The guards have to defend the hard drive to the basket better. They seem to rely on Steve to cover their mistakes.
It is not happening every time, but in the Chattanooga game, enough to impact the game.
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12-16-2015, 10:01 PM
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I just returned from the Duquesne game vs SC State. The Dukes are non-existent under the hoop. Even their big guys shoot more 3's than 2's. If we don't cover their guards at the 3 point line, they could upset us in the Burgh on Dec. 2. Whatever the problem is, we better clean it up soon. I can't take another BAD loss to Duquesne on the road.
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12-17-2015, 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan
2 comments.
1) Steve is young and has played in less than 10 games in college career. He has a long way to go. Other teams with good post players and good guards have discovered his weaknesses. That said, he is further along than any other freshman (redshirt or not) post player that I have ever seen at UD. He needs to learn how to defend the pick and roll better. No doubt. I am confident he will. Archie is already working on it.
2) Steve is not the only problem. The guards are letting the offensive player blow by them at times and Steve is not experienced as what to do in that situation. The guards have to defend the hard drive to the basket better. They seem to rely on Steve to cover their mistakes.
It is not happening every time, but in the Chattanooga game, enough to impact the game.
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Good points...and the one thing to notice is that almost every team we played has the same plan...
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12-17-2015, 10:05 PM
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Or maybe they're not shooters
Originally Posted by ocdvic
While our opponents are making .388 of their 3's against us, they're making .371 against the rest of the world. In other words, them boys is shooters.
Also, Archie says he has stressed to the team that one of their main defensive concerns is keeping Big Steve out of foul trouble. I remember early in the Vandy game seeing Scoochie leaving his plus-40% 3-shooter man open for a straight-on 3 to run under the basket because he thought someone might be driving on Steve.
It didn't work out that time, but the game came out OK.
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Took a second look at the same source (scoresandodds.com), saw that our opponents are averaging under 49% on free throws at UD Arena. They shoot 71% against the world. Shout out to the Red Scare, I guess.
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12-18-2015, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer
Makes me wonder whether the future opponents who are poorer at 3pt% are way up there in offensive rebounding and second chance points. A little like pushing on a tub of balloons.
Think we all remember the BG "chuck it and chase it" offense.
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Be very careful talking negative about BG's coaching career around here. The Glen Clark and longtimefan army will be red-pipping away before you know it
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12-18-2015, 04:43 PM
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My post is what a frustrated BG said at the time. The Coach just spoke my mind.
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12-18-2015, 08:16 PM
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And some on this forum, obsess too much about every deficiency of BG. He had some successes and failures. Strengths and weaknesses.
Archie is the coach now. Time to move on...
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