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Old 03-13-2017, 12:17 AM
LongTimeShocker LongTimeShocker is offline
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Greetings From Wichita

You got jobbed. Wichita State isn't playing like anything resembling the team that lost 4 games now. There is not another 7 seed in the tourney with as difficult an opponent as you have. This is another Committee eliminating a non-P5 team early in the tourney.

WSU had to replace 2 NBA players in the back court. Early in the season that was a work in progress. That's when the losses to Louisville, Michigan Stqate, and Oklahoma State occurred.

About 6 weeks ago WSU switched the players at SG and PG. That's when everything started clicking. Since then both guards have been above 50% from 3. PG has an A/TO ratio of 3.2 - somewhere around top 10 nationally. SG, who used to play PG is at 4.2, but he's at 2.9 assists per game and it takes 3 for consideration in rankings.

WSU will play 10 deep and keep fresh legs on the court all game. There is very little drop off in the front court. More in the back court, but both backup guards can shoot it.

Starters:
C - Shaq Morris - 6'8", 265, Jr. Strong back to the basket. Good shooting range. Sometimes makes 3's with fans cringing. Oklahoma City POY out of HS. MVP of OK/TX All-Star game out of HS. Has had games where he didn't seem to give 100% earlier in the season. Has shown good work ethic lately.

PF/SF - Markis McDuffie - 6'8", 215, So. Top-100 out of HS. On the pre-season Wooden Watch list. Classic stretch 4. Always around the ball. Leading scorer. Quick enough to cover PG's on switches off of screens. #3 in voting for MVP in our crappy league.

SF - Zach Brown, 6'6", 215, Jr. Defensive stopper. Will be assigned to Dayton's best offensive threat. Can defend players from PG to PF. Will miss field goals if left open.

SG - Conner Frankamp, 6'1", 170, Jr. Top 50 out of HS. Struggled with his shot while trying to play PG early in the season. Hitting over 50% from 3 since switching to SG. Surprising defender at his height. Gets blocks and steals. Transfer from Kansas.

PG - Landry Shamet, 6'4", 190, (RS)Fr. Top 100 out of HS. Athletic freak can dunk with the top of his head above the rim. I spent 4 years watching Fred VanVleet (Raptors) and Ron Baker (Knicks). Shamet better be checking his NBA draft status after his Jr. year. Maybe next year. Good shot selection and hits better than 50% since moving to PG. #2 in MVP voting in our previously described league.

Note: It wasn't this way at the start of the year, but right now the back court might be better than last year's back court, which put two guys in the NBA. Baker and VanVleet were better on D. Shamet and Frankamp are better on O and actually turn it over less.

Bench:
C - Rauno Nurger, 6'10", 240, Jr. Decent post moves. Decent defender. Generally steady.

C/PF - Darral Willis, 6'9", 220, Jr. Will score and rebound in bunches. Struggles on defense keep him out of the starting lineup. JuCo AA.

Note: WSU will play a 3-headed monster at Center. That gives them 15 fouls to give. The 3 big post players tend to get into foul trouble, but the next one in isn't much less of a challenge than the one they replaced.

PF - Rashard Kelly - 6'7", 230, Jr. Junkyard dog will fight for every loose ball and rebound. Lately he's been scoring at the rim and hitting 3's well enough that he's got a green light if he's open.

SG/PG - Austin Reaves - 6'5", 180, Fr. Yeah, he's a 6'5" PG who can play that position effectively. Averaged 32.5 ppg in HS. Shoots over 50% from 3. Deceptively quick. Has dislocated a shoulder twice this season and hasn't seemed as aggressive or effective after the second injury.

PG - Daishon Smith, 6'1", 175, Jr. Quickest guy on the team. Can light it up from 3. Defense and handles aren't at the levels of the starters. JuCo AA.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:38 AM
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Originally Posted by LongTimeShocker View Post
You got jobbed. Wichita State isn't playing like anything resembling the team that lost 4 games now. There is not another 7 seed in the tourney with as difficult an opponent as you have. This is another Committee eliminating a non-P5 team early in the tourney.

WSU had to replace 2 NBA players in the back court. Early in the season that was a work in progress. That's when the losses to Louisville, Michigan Stqate, and Oklahoma State occurred.
Yes, because you've played and beat teams of that caliber since then, oh, wait...
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:48 AM
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Welcome. Btw - you got jobbed also. Sorry about your seed and location. It's how the committee will weed one of the non P5 teams out. Our Flyers won the A10 outright March 1st and sleptwalk the last two games.

This is a senior led team that has been looking forward to the NCAAs since winning the A10. They've been battle tested 12-4 against Top 100 rpi 4-2 against Top 50 rpi. 6 wins against the field.

They are finally at full health and ready for
the second season.

Witchita is clearly a highly efficient basketball team (kenpom 8) and I expect a game decided at the buzzer, but expect that the home crowd will help us advance.

Good luck and welcome to the board.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Yes, because you've played and beat teams of that caliber since then, oh, wait...
Way to welcome him to the board Smitty!!!!! LOL

I'm not sure if we should even bother driving over to Indy after that description of the Shockers. They sound more like an NBA playoff team than a NCAA tournament team.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:53 AM
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I will say that I do not like the committee pitting non-p5 teams against each other like this in the first round. There are so many p5 teams that get in, the committee should give the non-p5 teams more of a chance to knock off the power conference teams in the first round.

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Old 03-13-2017, 12:56 AM
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Originally Posted by C-time View Post
Way to welcome him to the board Smitty!!!!! LOL

I'm not sure if we should even bother driving over to Indy after that description of the Shockers. They sound more like an NBA playoff team than a NCAA tournament team.
I know right? Just our luck, Scooch, Kendall, Kyle and Charles spent four years getting to this point and wind up stuck playing a team full of Lebrons and Currys. Archie should've bid them their final farewell from his house this afternoon.
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:19 AM
LongTimeShocker LongTimeShocker is offline
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Yes, because you've played and beat teams of that caliber since then, oh, wait...
Can't beat who you don't play. WSU has to be great early in the season because that's the only time we can get games that "count". WSU wasn't great early in the season.

It's only my opinion, and the opinion of about a thousand or so sports writers, coaches, and sports information directors, but WSU is closer to their 20 ranking in the polls than their 10 seed in the tourney.
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Yes, because you've played and beat teams of that caliber since then, oh, wait...
Illinois State is actually pretty close to Michigan State's caliber according to KenPom and we beat them by 41 and 20 points. If we are deciding caliber of teams by number of top 50 teams that you beat then yes, you are correct that we are lacking in that department.

I understand OP's post might sound hyperbolic, but everything he posted is factual. Does that mean all of our players are unstoppable? Of course not. I'm sure if you guys made a post highlighting your players' strengths that post would look somewhat similar. Will all of our players be able to do to you guys that they've been able to do the past 15 games? I have no idea. The Valley hasn't really given us any insight into that question. Is this Wichita State different from the one that was playing in November? Definitely. I think our results against Illinois State are enough to at least prove that much. We didn't start our meteoric KenPom rise as soon as we hit Valley play either. We were pretty consistently in the 20s until that change at PG was made and then we shot up.

Now that I've responded to the points in this topic, I can move on to what I came here to say.

I can't say I was thrilled to see you guys as our opponent especially when there are a lot of trash P5 teams flooded on those 7, 8, and 9 lines. I have a great respect for your coach, program, and fans. I was in Orlando last year for the Thanksgiving tournament and your presence there was very impressive. I'm sure Indy is going to be close to a home game for you guys. I'm sure the atmosphere will be worth a few points for you guys, I just hope it isn't enough to get you guys the W.

Good luck on Friday and I hope we both can put on a good show for the country in primetime on CBS. Hopefully whoever wins our game can get to the Sweet 16, I'll certainly be cheering for our winner against UK regardless.
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:41 AM
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AndShock,

That was a much less pompous way to introduce yourself than LongTimeShocker did to the board. Witchita State has our respect. We expect the same. We know they are very good against 30 of the 34 teams they've played.

I rather play any of the 8/9s than Witchita, but understand this Dayton team can beat anyone when they feel challenged. In one sense the disrespect the media is throwing is to our advantage.

Good luck. I expect a battle.
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:50 AM
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I like this Andshock guy better. He can stay. For now.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:00 AM
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Originally Posted by LongTimeShocker View Post
Can't beat who you don't play. WSU has to be great early in the season because that's the only time we can get games that "count". WSU wasn't great early in the season.

It's only my opinion, and the opinion of about a thousand or so sports writers, coaches, and sports information directors, but WSU is closer to their 20 ranking in the polls than their 10 seed in the tourney.
Quick question....how often are two teams seeded 3 spots from one another and the lower seed
is favored by 7 points...or at all?
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:06 AM
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Good luck to you guys as well. I hate having non-power conference teams play each other. I like to see teams like yours and ours go as deep as possible and take out as many power teams along the way. You guys sound like a strong balanced team who can shoot the rock. I have no doubt that many Flyer fans have been cheering your team on over the years as you've battled through the brackets. It's a shame we have to play each other.

If you had to pick a few things, what would you say are your guys weaknesses?
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:27 AM
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Originally Posted by AndShock View Post
Illinois State is actually pretty close to Michigan State's caliber according to KenPom and we beat them by 41 and 20 points. If we are deciding caliber of teams by number of top 50 teams that you beat then yes, you are correct that we are lacking in that department.

I understand OP's post might sound hyperbolic, but everything he posted is factual. Does that mean all of our players are unstoppable? Of course not. I'm sure if you guys made a post highlighting your players' strengths that post would look somewhat similar. Will all of our players be able to do to you guys that they've been able to do the past 15 games? I have no idea. The Valley hasn't really given us any insight into that question. Is this Wichita State different from the one that was playing in November? Definitely. I think our results against Illinois State are enough to at least prove that much. We didn't start our meteoric KenPom rise as soon as we hit Valley play either. We were pretty consistently in the 20s until that change at PG was made and then we shot up.

Now that I've responded to the points in this topic, I can move on to what I came here to say.

I can't say I was thrilled to see you guys as our opponent especially when there are a lot of trash P5 teams flooded on those 7, 8, and 9 lines. I have a great respect for your coach, program, and fans. I was in Orlando last year for the Thanksgiving tournament and your presence there was very impressive. I'm sure Indy is going to be close to a home game for you guys. I'm sure the atmosphere will be worth a few points for you guys, I just hope it isn't enough to get you guys the W.

Good luck on Friday and I hope we both can put on a good show for the country in primetime on CBS. Hopefully whoever wins our game can get to the Sweet 16, I'll certainly be cheering for our winner against UK regardless.
Losses by Illinois St(other than to your NBA caliber team)
Murray St 16-17
TCU 19-15
Tulsa 15-17
SF 20-12 (CBI tournament )

Big wins(one against your NBA caliber team).

Color me less than impressed.

While I think your team is going to be a tough match up, I think KenPom has your conference messed up. Absolutely no showing OOC. So when a bunch of bottom feeders start playing each other the top of that list will look very good. Calling Illinois St. the top of the Bottom feeders not the Shockers. The Shockers are a very good team in a league of bottom feeders. Illinois St is the best of those bottom feeders. Hardly comparable to Michigan St.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer'95 View Post
Good luck to you guys as well. I hate having non-power conference teams play each other. I like to see teams like yours and ours go as deep as possible and take out as many power teams along the way. You guys sound like a strong balanced team who can shoot the rock. I have no doubt that many Flyer fans have been cheering your team on over the years as you've battled through the brackets. It's a shame we have to play each other.

If you had to pick a few things, what would you say are your guys weaknesses?
We are extremely reliant on Frankamp/Shamet. If one of them leaves the floor there is a considerable drop off in offensive production. When both of them have to leave the floor at the same time the offense becomes completely nonexistent. Another thing is that our offense has been so efficient because Frankamp/Shamet have been shooting 50%+ from 3. It's a big enough sample size that it can't just be a hot streak. I've assumed they'll eventually fall back to normal percentages but it hasn't happened. I don't even know if both of them having an off night is possible, but if it is I really don't want to see it in the NCAA tournament.

A possible area of concern that has never plagued Gregg Marshall teams before this year is defense. We have not been tested by a good offensive team since December against Oklahoma State and we got absolutely abused then. It's hard to know how much we've improved in that department since we haven't faced any real offenses since that game. As mentioned, Illinois State is the only decent competition we've had since we turned the corner and they are absolutely horrendous on offense. I have no idea what we would do against a good offense at this point in the season.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Losses by Illinois St(other than to your NBA caliber team)
Murray St 16-17
TCU 19-15
Tulsa 15-17
SF 20-12 (CBI tournament )

Big wins(one against your NBA caliber team).

Color me less than impressed.

While I think your team is going to be a tough match up, I think KenPom has your conference messed up. Absolutely no showing OOC. So when a bunch of bottom feeders start playing each other the top of that list will look very good. Calling Illinois St. the top of the Bottom feeders not the Shockers. The Shockers are a very good team in a league of bottom feeders. Illinois St is the best of those bottom feeders. Hardly comparable to Michigan St.
You're doing what the committee did which I feel like really doesn't represent a team's body of work throughout the season. Winning road games 100-200 is difficult. More difficult than winning a bunch of 75-100 RPI games at home.

KenPom has attempted to remedy this imbalance with his tiers: http://kenpom.com/blog/tiers-of-joy/

It's still a work in progress but I think it does a better job at valuing games instead of just saying top 50 RPI, good win, 101 RPI, bad loss.

ISUr went 4-1 in "B" games throughout the year.
Dayton went 6-3 in B games. Beating the Bonnies at home is easier than winning @ UMass according to most analytics but that's not true according to the committee or to the RPI.

If ISUr had played 10 top 100 teams at home like all the P5 schools, they would certainly have some wins I could be bragging about right now. But they had exactly 1 shot at that type of game, which they did in fact win.
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:11 AM
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by AndShock View Post
A possible area of concern that has never plagued Gregg Marshall teams before this year is defense. We have not been tested by a good offensive team since December against Oklahoma State and we got absolutely abused then. It's hard to know how much we've improved in that department since we haven't faced any real offenses since that game. As mentioned, Illinois State is the only decent competition we've had since we turned the corner and they are absolutely horrendous on offense. I have no idea what we would do against a good offense at this point in the season.
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Looked this up, he's not kidding. Loyola is the next best kenpom offense in the MVC, at #90, #96 overall. After that, none of the offenses crack the top 100, including Illinois State. That's terrible.

Wichita has definitely been on a roll, but I really think this single game is going to be a confirmation or repudiation of advanced metrics. Wichita State wins easily, you may see a more dramatic shift of the committee to taking those into account. If they lose, you will hear a lot about how they got it right after all by listening more to the body of work/RPI arguments.

Add to that the disrespect that both teams are probably feeling, and it being a primetime CBS game... this might well be the most high profile game of the first round.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:25 AM
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I think all here respect WSU, coach and fans. Both of these teams got the major "FU" job by the "selection" committee. I can almost hear the conversation now..."here's what we'll do with these 2 mid-majors...we'll face em off in a clearly poor matchup for em both. We'll **** em off, their fans, and make them dogfight each other just for a chance at UK- is someone texting Calipari to see what he thinks? Oh, good. Hey also let him know we're giving him NKU as an early round gift so whoever they face Sunday, they'll be fresh. Boys, this is textbook on how to eliminate mid-majors. Now, on to VCU and St. Marys...we all good with that one too?..."
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:29 AM
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Originally Posted by AndShock View Post
You're doing what the committee did which I feel like really doesn't represent a team's body of work throughout the season. Winning road games 100-200 is difficult. More difficult than winning a bunch of 75-100 RPI games at home.

KenPom has attempted to remedy this imbalance with his tiers: http://kenpom.com/blog/tiers-of-joy/

It's still a work in progress but I think it does a better job at valuing games instead of just saying top 50 RPI, good win, 101 RPI, bad loss.

ISUr went 4-1 in "B" games throughout the year.
Dayton went 6-3 in B games. Beating the Bonnies at home is easier than winning @ UMass according to most analytics but that's not true according to the committee or to the RPI.

If ISUr had played 10 top 100 teams at home like all the P5 schools, they would certainly have some wins I could be bragging about right now. But they had exactly 1 shot at that type of game, which they did in fact win.
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I am a very big fan of Kenpom and familiar with his ratings. So speaking in Kenpom speak - Dayton went 2-5 in "A" games. WSU went 0-4. Your friend points out that WSU changed guard positions for 3 of those losses.

I don't plan on going over to WSU forum and letting everyone know the following, but Dayton was plagued with injuries this year in the 3 "A" team losses. Dayton got back to full strength the week before the VCU game in which they clinched the regular season title. After that for the first time in their careers that I can remember they celebrated a little. They knew they were a NCAA lock and coasted. You can't coast against Top 100 teams.

These seniors have beat the following teams in their careers:

2014 Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, California, Ole Miss, Ohio State *, Syracuse *, Stanford *
2015 Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Boise St, Providence
2016 Alabama, Iowa, Vanderbilt
2017 Alabama, Vanderbilt, (Conf Tourney Champs: Rhode Island, Winthrop, and East Tenn State)

Our average margin of victory against rpi 140+ teams is 20 points. We only played 8 of those games. The 22 other games on our schedule were against teams with rpi's lower than the 3rd best rpi team in the MVC. I'd love to know what our kenpom rating would be if we just took those games into account.

So please pardon us if we don't roll over, shiver, and say OMG - we have to play Wichita State after what this senior class has been through.

The NCAA is an opportunity to compete against really good teams. Guess what? - they all are really good regardless of your seed. These seniors at 5-3 in the NCAA tournament know this.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:10 AM
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Talking

Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Since I don't care about your basketball team tell me more about your cheerleaders!
Oh my, that post really got my day off to a positive start!
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by TommyGola View Post
Oh my, that post really got my day off to a positive start!
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by LongTimeShocker View Post
You got jobbed. Wichita State isn't playing like anything resembling the team that lost 4 games now. There is not another 7 seed in the tourney with as difficult an opponent as you have. This is another Committee eliminating a non-P5 team early in the tourney.....
Welcome and thanks for posting. I know some fans take exception to your opening sentence. I tend to factor that out because everyone has fans that live and die by their team. I didn't take it as a knock on Dayton.

What I really appreciate is all the info you gave on your players. I would have never been able to dig all that up trying to evaluated how these two teams match up. The info is from a person who appears to have seen many, many Shocker games this year. I hope you and other WSU fans continue to post everyday until the game. Fan to fan exchanges like this just add to how great college hoops are.

Now on to my comments about this match up. We lost our big guy last spring to sudden heart failure. (RIP Steve) neither of our teams are very tall. I like that about this match up. Another poster said you guys have a solid 3-person rotation in the paint, giving you 15 fouls. We haven't been that deep. One of our starters missed 20+ games with an injury suffered in the 2nd game. It's a testament to his hard work he is even in a uniform again this season, but he has only been about 75%. I have stated before, I think our NCAA results this year may very well hinge on how much Cunningham can contribute. We will take whatever he has to give, but if his health and conditioning can take a big step forward from what he's shown over the last couple weeks, it will help us. Over the summer in on a Europe trip, and those first two games he looked to be on his way to leading the team in rebounding and a top 2 scorer. We could use as much of that as he can give us. Finally, with 15 fouls at your disposal, I'm praying Kendal Pollard is practicing his free throws as we speak. He had gotten very solid from the line this year, but the last 2-3 games seems to have slid back into his terrible freshman habits. He needs to get back on track. We do have guys that drive the lane, who are good FT shooters. Question is how good they are at drawing fouls when they get into the paint? And can we finish those shots to go to the line for an old-fashion 3?

Your best defender will probably be assigned to Cooke, our leading scorer. Cooke will have to play disciplined and not try to force his offense, which he tends to do if the game isn't coming to him. We have a lot of players who can score. Cooke needs to remember that and do his job, even if that is to simply occupy your best defender, leaving the scoring up to his teammates. Our offense is very good when they remember what makes them so strong. That is playing fast - both in movement and passing the ball around. I don't think we are a selfish team at all individually. But we sometimes forget to play to our strength which is speed and ball movement.

Defensively we can be very good. We have two players who made the 5-player conference defensive team. But you've got two guys that are shooting 50 from the 3. We haven't been great at times shutting down the 3. So what Dayton D is going to show up? And another poster mentioned your offense is dependent on those two players. So what is Dayton going to do to get those two into foul trouble. I'm not convinced we do a good job of keeping pressure on players we want to get into foul trouble. We seem to forget that part of game plans.

Both teams have great coaches. Marshall and Miller are on every big schools wish list if they are looking for a new coach. Both of these coaches, if they decide to leave, will go to a top 10 program, they are that good.

I've been wanting Dayton to play WSU in both volleyball and men's basketball for a long time so I'm excited about the match up. Two great programs going head-to-head. But I think we all agree, the committee uses 1st round pairings to weed out a lot of teams that can get hot during the tournament and upset bigger schools down the line. How do we beat them at that game? Add these types of programs to your regular season schedules, because the committee doesn't usually pair teams up in the first round with someone you played during the year. There have been some exceptions, but they are rare.

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Old 03-13-2017, 09:50 AM
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WSU is the kind of team we Dayton fans root for when we aren't on the other side of the court. Glad you could stop by with your insight. In your brief stay you have gotten feedback from some of our most prolific posters. What you have seen here is how they post about the flyers too. Smithy could find things wrong with the Victoria Secret catalog.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by John C. View Post
WSU is the kind of team we Dayton fans root for when we aren't on the other side of the court. Glad you could stop by with your insight. In your brief stay you have gotten feedback from some of our most prolific posters. What you have seen here is how they post about the flyers too. Smithy could find things wrong with the Victoria Secret catalog.
Starting with the models are wearing too much clothing.
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:05 AM
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Originally Posted by John C. View Post
WSU is the kind of team we Dayton fans root for when we aren't on the other side of the court. Glad you could stop by with your insight. In your brief stay you have gotten feedback from some of our most prolific posters. What you have seen here is how they post about the flyers too. Smithy could find things wrong with the Victoria Secret catalog.
Sssshhhh! Maddog hasn't even posted yet.

BTW welcome to the board WSU fans. This Dayton team could make it all the way to the final four.....or just squander away another opportunity set a record as a senior class. Past two games Archie says they lost their edge since winning the A-10 regular season, I say they lost heart.

In truth I doubht either team won't bring it all on Friday Prime time TV, College basketball at its best.

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Old 03-13-2017, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by John C. View Post
WSU is the kind of team we Dayton fans root for when we aren't on the other side of the court. Glad you could stop by with your insight. In your brief stay you have gotten feedback from some of our most prolific posters. What you have seen here is how they post about the flyers too. Smithy could find things wrong with the Victoria Secret catalog.
Originally Posted by BeckysTXA View Post
Starting with the models are wearing too much clothing.
And if Smitty said that he wouldn't be wrong!
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:34 AM
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Most posters here have discussed numerous times over the last 4 seasons (maybe more) about the programs that we would like to emulate. One of them has been WSU. Another for comparison sake is Gonzaga.

We love when you guys (and for that matter us and anyone else not in the P5 conferences) beat down on teams from BIG10, PAC12, BE, SEC, etc.

Too bad we have to eat our own so to speak.

No matter what the result on Friday I am sure we at UD will continue to seek and maintain a level of parity with programs such as yours.

Another note again in discussion on this forum, many posters have expressed a desire to play a regular OOC game with you guys. Home and Away precisely so that both fan bases can experience the fun and entertainment value of 2 great BB schools.
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:55 AM
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You Shocker fans need to get over to the thread "A Players Tribune" .

We all lost a player last spring BIG #5 known around these parts as Big Steve.

RIP Steve!
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Old 03-13-2017, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by LongTimeShocker View Post
Can't beat who you don't play. WSU has to be great early in the season because that's the only time we can get games that "count".
You guys played 16 home games and 14 away/neutral games this year just like UD usually does. You guys have played 15 home and 15 away/neutral at times in the past.

You guys could have played a 15/15 schedule this year and improved your sos and improved your number of top 50 games.

I am sure UD would like to play you every year.

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Old 03-13-2017, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
You guys played 16 home games and 14 away/neutral games this year just like UD usually does. You guys have played 15 home and 15 away/neutral at times in the past.

You guys could have played a 15/15 schedule this year and improved your sos and improved your number of top 50 games.

I am sure UD would like to play you every year.
This is the only 15/15 schedule post I have ever liked!!!!!!!!! LOL!!!!

Well played ud2!!
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by AndShock View Post
Illinois State is actually pretty close to Michigan State's caliber according to KenPom and we beat them by 41 and 20 points. If we are deciding caliber of teams by number of top 50 teams that you beat then yes, you are correct that we are lacking in that department.
Ugh...
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:09 PM
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I think the teams are pretty even; minus the last two games from UD.

UD could have blown out a lot of the lesser teams they played similar to the MVC competition, but we'd put the backups in and we would give up the 20+ point leads. Wichita does the same but there seems to be a much less of the dropoff with their bench. Hence they keep up the gaudy margin of victories.

I think kenpom is flawed, but don't have as great of a feeling as most do on this board about the game. Mainly due to the last two games. I think whoever is winning this game at halftime takes it.

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Old 03-13-2017, 12:15 PM
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My apologies if I offended posters here. At no time did I intend to slight Dayton or even imply that WSU would win the game. I SERIOUSLY do not believe WSU is a 10-seed. I was expecting something in the 6-7 range.

I was hoping my introduction of the players to Dayton fans would give fans here a better understanding of their opponent and more appreciation of the game when it is played. I enjoy having knowledge of the players for opponents so I know what to watch for in games.

When I look at Dayton's W/L record and the teams they've played I have a lot of respect for the Flyers. I think WSU is in for the toughest game they've played since November - and we lost to Oklahoma State in Wichita in December.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by LongTimeShocker View Post
My apologies if I offended posters here.
You didn't offend anyone who isn't a snowflake so come in peace.

Getting back to business, who is your King?



RIP Shocker fans!

So let it be written.
So let it be done!
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted by LongTimeShocker View Post
My apologies if I offended posters here. At no time did I intend to slight Dayton or even imply that WSU would win the game. I SERIOUSLY do not believe WSU is a 10-seed. I was expecting something in the 6-7 range.

I was hoping my introduction of the players to Dayton fans would give fans here a better understanding of their opponent and more appreciation of the game when it is played. I enjoy having knowledge of the players for opponents so I know what to watch for in games.

When I look at Dayton's W/L record and the teams they've played I have a lot of respect for the Flyers. I think WSU is in for the toughest game they've played since November - and we lost to Oklahoma State in Wichita in December.
Always butt-hurt people on every board so no need to apologize.Appreciate your insight.....I know the shockers will bring it and I'm hoping UD can snap out, bring the leadership and intensity....UD has NOT had the "go to" guy the past few games even when they were winning. Charles Cooke needs a 21-22 point game and be THAT guy that can hit the shot when no one else is AND when the shot clock is dwindling down..
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:43 PM
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Originally Posted by LongTimeShocker View Post
My apologies if I offended posters here. At no time did I intend to slight Dayton or even imply that WSU would win the game. I SERIOUSLY do not believe WSU is a 10-seed. I was expecting something in the 6-7 range.

I was hoping my introduction of the players to Dayton fans would give fans here a better understanding of their opponent and more appreciation of the game when it is played. I enjoy having knowledge of the players for opponents so I know what to watch for in games.

When I look at Dayton's W/L record and the teams they've played I have a lot of respect for the Flyers. I think WSU is in for the toughest game they've played since November - and we lost to Oklahoma State in Wichita in December.
If I misread your intentions, I apologize. But to me your post kind of read like a "you guys got jobbed because we're going to kick your butts" type of thing. Without the "We both got jobbed" instead, it tended to sound that way. And then as others pointed out, it sounded like you were making your team out to be all NBA caliber. Basically it sounded disrespectful to our Flyers and while I will criticize them, I will be front and center to defend or fight for them when an opponent's fan disses them.

Again, if it wasn't your intentions, my apologies.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:54 PM
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Great post Smitty. It's all good. Fans just being big fans of their own teams.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA View Post
Great post Smitty. It's all good. Fans just being big fans of their own teams.
Just as it should be, otherwise they're not really fans.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:59 PM
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Frankly both teams got jobbed. WSU on the 10 line is a joke. I think the loss to Michigan stats was heavily counted against them as the tourney chair said they looked a lot at head to head. I am flyer faithful but I don't think Dayton was a 7. They would have been with a win or two in the A-10. In a down year for the a10 I thought when a10 ended that Dayton was a 9,10 with VCU and Rhody to follow. I actually think the seeds should almost be flipped with WSU being a 7 and Dayton the 10. In the end it doesn't matter.

The shame is the pitting of two non-big 5 schools. It's how the tourney has shaped up along with regional matchups i.e. Ohio state vs Dayton, northern Kentucky vs Kentucky. These two programs have done a lot to earn their place. I have said for years that Dayton WSU should be a game both schools sign up for. It makes a lot sense.

Either way should be a fun game. WSU is consistent, Dayton is senior led. It will depend which UD team shows up. And can UD defense the perimeter better than thy have shown these last two games. Continued missed asssognments on hedge strategy and lackluster effort have haunted UD. Time to gear up and get the edge back. Being the 7 seed and opening as a 6.5 dog should be chip on the shoulder enough
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Odrab14 View Post
Frankly both teams got jobbed. WSU on the 10 line is a joke. I think the loss to Michigan stats was heavily counted against them as the tourney chair said they looked a lot at head to head. I am flyer faithful but I don't think Dayton was a 7. They would have been with a win or two in the A-10. In a down year for the a10 I thought when a10 ended that Dayton was a 9,10 with VCU and Rhody to follow. I actually think the seeds should almost be flipped with WSU being a 7 and Dayton the 10. In the end it doesn't matter.

The shame is the pitting of two non-big 5 schools. It's how the tourney has shaped up along with regional matchups i.e. Ohio state vs Dayton, northern Kentucky vs Kentucky. These two programs have done a lot to earn their place. I have said for years that Dayton WSU should be a game both schools sign up for. It makes a lot sense.

Either way should be a fun game. WSU is consistent, Dayton is senior led. It will depend which UD team shows up. And can UD defense the perimeter better than thy have shown these last two games. Continued missed asssognments on hedge strategy and lackluster effort have haunted UD. Time to gear up and get the edge back. Being the 7 seed and opening as a 6.5 dog should be chip on the shoulder enough
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Odrab14 View Post
Frankly both teams got jobbed. WSU on the 10 line is a joke. I think the loss to Michigan stats was heavily counted against them as the tourney chair said they looked a lot at head to head. I am flyer faithful but I don't think Dayton was a 7. They would have been with a win or two in the A-10. In a down year for the a10 I thought when a10 ended that Dayton was a 9,10 with VCU and Rhody to follow. I actually think the seeds should almost be flipped with WSU being a 7 and Dayton the 10. In the end it doesn't matter.

The shame is the pitting of two non-big 5 schools. It's how the tourney has shaped up along with regional matchups i.e. Ohio state vs Dayton, northern Kentucky vs Kentucky. These two programs have done a lot to earn their place. I have said for years that Dayton WSU should be a game both schools sign up for. It makes a lot sense.

Either way should be a fun game. WSU is consistent, Dayton is senior led. It will depend which UD team shows up. And can UD defense the perimeter better than thy have shown these last two games. Continued missed asssognments on hedge strategy and lackluster effort have haunted UD. Time to gear up and get the edge back. Being the 7 seed and opening as a 6.5 dog should be chip on the shoulder enough
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I am not sure the A-10 is down as much as indicated, especially the top five teams. I believe that any of the three teams from the A-10 can make a run.
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  #42  
Old 03-13-2017, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by TommyGola View Post
I am not sure the A-10 is down as much as indicated, especially the top five teams. I believe that any of the three teams from the A-10 can make a run.
I love how the A10 is down yet it got only one less in than the Pac 12.
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:45 PM
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I'm getting a good feeling about this game. I'm taking Dayton and their 28% chance to win. We can muster the offense. WSU will find out our past two games were an aberration. It's going to the wire if Wichita can keep up. See you here after the game either way. Go Flyers!
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:54 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I will say that I do not like the committee pitting non-p5 teams against each other like this in the first round. There are so many p5 teams that get in, the committee should give the non-p5 teams more of a chance to knock off the power conference teams in the first round.
Totally agree. They did the same thing with VCU and St Mary's.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:07 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
I love how the A10 is down yet it got only one less in than the Pac 12.
A10 was said to be down because, until Rhody won the tourney, the A10 would get just two teams in the Dance. Now Rhody is not only in, but guys with 20/20 hindsight (Bilas) pick them to win multiple games. Bilas, Jay Williams, Greenberg, Gary Parrish...are all hypocrites. And regardless of what Gottlieb tweeted, he lost even more credibility when, during the Davidson vs Rhody game, said Davidson defeated Dayton in THE PREVIOUS DAY in overtime. I'm sure a producer put his cue cards together for him and for the most part he regurgitates them on the air due to quick-turn prep time, however...
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
A10 was said to be down because, until Rhody won the tourney, the A10 would get just two teams in the Dance. Now Rhody is not only in, but guys with 20/20 hindsight (Bilas) pick them to win multiple games. Bilas, Jay Williams, Greenberg, Gary Parrish...are all hypocrites. And regardless of what Gottlieb tweeted, he lost even more credibility when, during the Davidson vs Rhody game, said Davidson defeated Dayton in THE PREVIOUS DAY in overtime. I'm sure a producer put his cue cards together for him and for the most part he regurgitates them on the air due to quick-turn prep time, however...
Can't be as bad as Jay Williams who said St Marys best OOC win was against Winthrop.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Since I don't care about your basketball team tell me more about your cheerleaders!
...priceless

How long have you been saving this one up????
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by UDTradition View Post
...priceless

How long have you been saving this one up????
As your fearless, perverted and benevolent leader, I speak not for myself but for the sake and benefit of everyone. After all, facts are facts and there's a little bit of rollo in each and every one of us!

You're Royally welcome.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:25 PM
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Wink

Originally Posted by rollo View Post
You didn't offend anyone who isn't a snowflake so come in peace.

Getting back to business, who is your King?



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Old 03-13-2017, 02:40 PM
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I think I have this right, Dayton I'd 6-3 vs teams in the field, and WSU is 0-3. Outside of Louisville, similar teams in those lists.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by UDGutter2 View Post
I think I have this right, Dayton I'd 6-3 vs teams in the field, and WSU is 0-3. Outside of Louisville, similar teams in those lists.
WSU beat SD St. who is in the field.
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Old 03-13-2017, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by UDGutter2 View Post
I think I have this right, Dayton I'd 6-3 vs teams in the field, and WSU is 0-3. Outside of Louisville, similar teams in those lists.
We are 1-3 against teams in the field. The kicker is that all those games were in November and December when we were still trying to figure this team out. We know our team is much better now, what we don't know is how much better because we haven't had the opportunities against quality opponents (except ISU) since then. We will find out Friday if we have improved as much as we think we have.


BTW I wish you luck in replacing your excellent senior class for next season. As WSU showed this year, there will be both highs and lows when turning the reins over. I hope its mostly highs for you guys.

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Old 03-13-2017, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by LongTimeShocker View Post
PG - Daishon Smith, 6'1", 175, Jr.
I don't always type out Dayshon, but when I do I spell it with a Y.
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Old 03-13-2017, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerinChicago View Post
Quick question....how often are two teams seeded 3 spots from one another and the lower seed
is favored by 7 points...or at all?
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Interesting in that whoever wins it will be an upset.
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Old 03-13-2017, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by WheatShock View Post
We are 1-4 against teams in the field. The kicker is that all those games were in November and December when we were still trying to figure this team out. We know our team is much better now, what we don't know is how much better because we haven't had the opportunities against quality opponents (except ISU) since then. We will find out Friday if we have improved as much as we think we have.


BTW I wish you luck in replacing your excellent senior class for next season. As WSU showed this year, there will be both highs and lows when turning the reins over. I hope its mostly highs for you guys.
From what I have read on this board and on the WSU board, these teams and fan bases are very similar. Both are passionate fan bases, each with its share of realistic and unrealistic posters. WSU (like UD) is a major program in a sub P5 level conference. The quality of that conference goes up and down over the years but for the most part, the A10 has been a little stronger overall. This year we had 3 strong teams while the MVC had 2. Being one of the major programs in a non-P5 conference, you rely on the on-conference - especially the tourneys - to pad your resume. For whatever reasons, UD did ok but not great and WSU did not do as good. This is where the A10 being a little stronger helped UD and the MVC not being as strong hurt WSU.

So WSU's resume did not end up looking as good as UD's. However, as we know, the advanced metrics heavily favor WSU. If UD was in a similar position, Flyer fans would be barking the same thing. Both fan bases would scream bloody murder if those advanced metrics were used to favor a P5 team. Yes nobody likes to be dissed but the reality is all the teams in the 7-10 are not that far apart. Everyone wants to avoid the 8/9 game because no 16 is going to take out the 1. There is some hope with a 15 taking out a 2. The really sucky thing is that two major programs in non- P5 conferences, have to play each other in the first round. Same with VCU and St Marys. There are 16 teams seed 7-10. 12 are P5 and 4 non-P5. After the first round, there is a guarantee that there will be 6 P5 and 2 non-P5 left. That is the way the NCAA and the P5 want it.
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  #56  
Old 03-13-2017, 05:09 PM
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Seeing as how I think Kenpom numbers are mostly crap, I would only be jokingly barking if Dayton had good numbers. I think they have to be used with results to be worthwhile, but in the end, if the results aren't there, Kenpom isn't worth the time to read.
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Old 03-13-2017, 05:42 PM
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Take a look at this series of Tweets from Dan Muller. I don't know if he quite gets it. I'm not sure going public in this way is going to help. The BCS schools have no incentive to play a home and home. Schedule a road game against against a school willing to play. There's a reason Butler joined the Big East.

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Old 03-13-2017, 05:45 PM
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Ok - let's use Kenpom

Dayton
--------
Kenpom Top 50 wins: 3
Kenpom Top 100 wins: 10

Wichita
Kenpom Top 50 wins: 0
Kenpom Top 100 wins: 5

Enough of this stat crap. Scoochie, Kendall, Kyle, and Charles will do what they do on this next business trip.
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Old 03-13-2017, 05:52 PM
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You guys are doing to WS what P5 teams do to us. I think the advanced stats that say they are a top 12 team in the country is a bunch of crap, but most likely they a 18-35 team very similar to dayton and VCU, perhaps even better.

The problem is its just really hard to place them since there conference is so bad. The entire thing just goes back to scheduling and theres no real solution. The top a10 teams are always in the same situation, just less so since the conference is better and usually schedule a little better OOC.

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Old 03-13-2017, 06:49 PM
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To be clear - you are saying you are a Top 10 team because computer ratings says your are. You don't feel you have to prove it. You just are because the ranking says you are. Sound sorta P5'ish.

Don't get me wrong - we think you are a fantastic opponent, but you are starting to get a little irrational with this kenpom rating.

When the committee starts to use advanced analytics (like Kenpom) they will apply it in the Top 25 / Top 50 / Top 100 metrics like I did above. They will never just take a single team ranking as a data point by itself. Nor should they.

I like Kenpom, but the fact that you are # 8 vs us being #36 tells me you played much more efficient against your schedule than we did against ours and that your schedule isn't that of a true one bid type conference (10th ranked).

It doesn't mean you are 28 teams better than us. If it makes you feel better I could see us as the 10 and you as a 7 seed, but the way this original post was written and some of the subsequent comments make it sound like you guys think you should be a 3 or 4 seed. The arrogance isn't coming from Dayton.

We are glad to be selected as an at-large. Give us any seed and the opportunity to advance. It is a privilege not a right to play in this tournament (especially given the P5 procedures stacked against us).

If you hadn't won your tourney you probably would have been in Illinois State's spot right now given the metrics they use for selection. It wouldn't have been fair, but you know it would've happened. Look at all the P5 teams on the bubble. We had it happen once to the A10 in 2005. George Washington was the only bid we got.

You are another good top 20-35 team (no better / no worse than us). No shame in that. You might be 5 points better or 5 points worse than us - we can find out Friday. Both Dayton and WSU would be advancing against the middling majors in field around us. Don't mistake Dayton for a team like that.

I am just glad we have Rhody, VCU, Richmond, Davidson, LaSalle, GW, and Saint Joes (down, but will be back) in our conference. I'd love to have WSU join the A10 and bring Illinois State. There are a few we would trade. Our conference would rival the New BE with those additions. The AAC is not the answer. It is a temporary football conference waiting for the next football realignment.

Good luck in what I expect to be a great game.

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Old 03-13-2017, 06:56 PM
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We have played 6 Top 40 games this year. WSU has played 5. This match up is a top 40 match up. We are 4-2 in those games. They are 2-3.

When you branch out to Top 155 (I included SDSt at 155 because they are in the dance and it was a WSU win.) We played 20 and won .700. They played 11 and won .636.

The big difference is in those Top 155 is how big of win or loss. Dayton lost by an average of 4.33 points and won by an average of 8.93. I like those numbers considering our last two losses were both 6 points - the most all year. We were in all these games.

Compare that to WSU who either wins big or loses big. They lost their top 155 games by an average of 11.5 points. They had 2 games they won by more than 40 points pushing their winning margin to an average of 26.6 points. In their 11 top 155 games, their two closest games were a 5 point loss and a 10 point loss. Everything else was a margin of more than 15 points. We've had 8 Top 155 games won by 7 points or less.

Most people are saying this is going to be a close game. If that's the case, Dayton has way more experience in winning close games. And even our losses in tight games is very good experience if we find ourselves in one against the shockers.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:05 PM
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I actually have an account on the VCU board and get along with most of the posters pretty well. I remember getting along with the Boise State visitors, but I'll tell you SOME of the Shocker fans think they are Duke. Kind of reminds me of Xavier. I almost want them in the A10 just to have a rival I can despise again. They would definitely be Top 1-4 each year. Imagine VCU, Dayton, WSU, Rhody, with Richmond, GW, SJU, Davidson, LaSalle, and Bonnies all nipping at the Top 4. Maybe Ford revives Saint Louis. No disrespect to GM, UMASS, or Fordham, but 10 would be good.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:19 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I actually have an account on the VCU board and get along with most of the posters pretty well. I remember getting along with the Boise State visitors, but I'll tell you SOME of the Shocker fans think they are Duke. Kind of reminds me of Xavier. I almost want them in the A10 just to have a rival I can despise again. They would definitely be Top 1-4 each year. Imagine VCU, Dayton, WSU, Rhody, with Richmond, GW, SJU, Davidson, LaSalle, and Bonnies all nipping at the Top 4. Maybe Ford revives Saint Louis. No disrespect to GM, UMASS, or Fordham, but 10 would be good.
kinda reminds me of some UD fans on here. Funny how that works.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I actually have an account on the VCU board and get along with most of the posters pretty well. I remember getting along with the Boise State visitors, but I'll tell you SOME of the Shocker fans think they are Duke. Kind of reminds me of Xavier. I almost want them in the A10 just to have a rival I can despise again. They would definitely be Top 1-4 each year. Imagine VCU, Dayton, WSU, Rhody, with Richmond, GW, SJU, Davidson, LaSalle, and Bonnies all nipping at the Top 4. Maybe Ford revives Saint Louis. No disrespect to GM, UMASS, or Fordham, but 10 would be good.
I guess its nice to be compared to Duke, even if it was meant as an insult.

I came here to get some insight on the Flyers and answer any questions ya'll have about my team. I honestly have no interest in a discussion about resumes or whether kenpom or top 100 RPI wins is better for evaluating a team.

So, anyone got questions about WSU?
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:23 PM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA View Post
We have played 6 Top 40 games this year. WSU has played 5. This match up is a top 40 match up. We are 4-2 in those games. They are 2-3.

When you branch out to Top 155 (I included SDSt at 155 because they are in the dance and it was a WSU win.) We played 20 and won .700. They played 11 and won .636.

The big difference is in those Top 155 is how big of win or loss. Dayton lost by an average of 4.33 points and won by an average of 8.93. I like those numbers considering our last two losses were both 6 points - the most all year. We were in all these games.

Compare that to WSU who either wins big or loses big. They lost their top 155 games by an average of 11.5 points. They had 2 games they won by more than 40 points pushing their winning margin to an average of 26.6 points. In their 11 top 155 games, their two closest games were a 5 point loss and a 10 point loss. Everything else was a margin of more than 15 points. We've had 8 Top 155 games won by 7 points or less.

Most people are saying this is going to be a close game. If that's the case, Dayton has way more experience in winning close games. And even our losses in tight games is very good experience if we find ourselves in one against the shockers.
I've gotten the impression that they are not used to close games or games they are losing. I watched segments of their loss to Illinois St. and it looked a lot like a Flyers methodical 8 point win. Where the opponent just can't mount any momentum. Maybe they play a lot of methodical basketball games where they just slowly and easily build their leads from the start against opponents that don't belong on the floor with them because they basically looked like Stanford did against us in the sweet 16 game. Had no answer to chopping down at a deficit.

I really believe that this game depends on one thing and one thing only and that is that the Flyers don't let them build a double digit advantage early in the first half.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by WheatShock View Post

So, anyone got questions about WSU?
So,when WSU joins the A-10, what current teams in your conference, if any, would you think would be a good fit for joining the A-10 at the same time. Of course my next question is why? Thanks
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:45 PM
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Originally Posted by WheatShock View Post

So, anyone got questions about WSU?
What are your thoughts on all this AAC talk? Does Wichita State have football? Do they want to have D-I football?
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:47 PM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
kinda reminds me of some UD fans on here. Funny how that works.
Good point.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:48 PM
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So, anyone got questions about WSU?[/QUOTE]

I am a bit shocked (no pun) reading through this as a Flyer fan. WSU is obviously a very good team and I hope we are able to handle you guys. Thanks to those that described your team and players. I had the chance to see a couple of your games but that was very helpful and insightful.

It would be great to schedule home and aways in the future.

My question is this. When I saw you screwed into a 10 seed, I wondered if this is the kick that would get you to join the American Conference as rumored earlier this year in that clickbait article.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:01 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Dayton
--------
Kenpom Top 50 wins: 3
Kenpom Top 100 wins: 10

Wichita
Kenpom Top 50 wins: 0
Kenpom Top 100 wins: 5

Enough of this stat crap. Scoochie, Kendall, Kyle, and Charles will do what they do on this next business trip.
Some other statistics from kenpom.

Wichita State has lost to the top 3 defenses they have faced: #6 Louisville, #15 Illinois State, and #34 Michigan State. Dayton would be the 5th best defense they have played at #45 (Oklahoma they beat at #42). Dayton has the ability to play at a top 10 defensive level and was a top 10 defense up until a month ago. In its 4 losses, Wichita State scored .79 points per possession versus Louisville, .94 versus IL St., 1.06 versus Michigan State, and 1.07 versus Ok St. instead of their normal 1.196 a game. Dayton's defense is the key

Dayton is the 3rd best offense the Shockers have faced with Dayton scoring 1.123 points per possession. They lost to Louisville who scores 1.248 and Oklahoma State who scores 1.171.

Kenpom A Wins/Losses (adjust for location)
Dayton 2-3, but 2-0 at full strength (@Alabama & @RI noting that Cunningham played 2 minutes).
Wichita 0-4.

Kenpom B Wins/Losses (adjusted for location)
Dayton 6-3
Wichita 8-0

Total A/B Wins/Losses
Dayton 8-6
Wichita 8-4

Dayton and Wichita are A opponents for each other on a neutral floor. Wichita State has been crushing kenpom in B games, but 0-4 in A games has hurt them. Dayton has been good in both A and B games.

Looking at the detail, I think Dayton has a much better shot than the 25% kenpom states.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:05 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
What are your thoughts on all this AAC talk? Does Wichita State have football? Do they want to have D-I football?
I have zero inside info but I believe we are joining the AAC. I don't think VCU or Dayton are coming with us.

We do not have football.

We do not want football. A study into the feasibility of football was done last summer. That study was only done because we want to improve our conference. If football was necessary to get out of the MVC, we might restart the program. Some realignment boards throughout the online college basketball community saw our football study and assumed we want football. That's not true. We want a better conference and football was considered as a possible vehicle to get us there.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
So,when WSU joins the A-10, what current teams in your conference, if any, would you think would be a good fit for joining the A-10 at the same time. Of course my next question is why? Thanks
Bradley is a good fit for the A10. Private school. No football. 6k attendance per game even though they've been horrible for a decade. They have made a couple decent hires on paper but they just haven't worked out, yet. Their current coach, Wardle, is improving but isn't quite there yet. They are actually trying to be good at basketball which is more than could be said about over half of the Valley schools.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by AndShock View Post
Bradley is a good fit for the A10. Private school. No football. 6k attendance per game even though they've been horrible for a decade. They have made a couple decent hires on paper but they just haven't worked out, yet. Their current coach, Wardle, is improving but isn't quite there yet. They are actually trying to be good at basketball which is more than could be said about over half of the Valley schools.
Let's do this very soon. Signed Josh Cunningham.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:17 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Some other statistics from kenpom.

Looking at the detail, I think Dayton has a much better shot than the 25% kenpom states.
Glad you are coming around.

Don't get me wrong though. I think Wichita State should be favored based on performance to date. Their 3 point shooting and rebounding concern me. However, I'm not sure this UD team has ever been the favorite in their 8 NCAA games.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Glad you are coming around.

Don't get me wrong though. I think Wichita State should be favored based on performance to date. Their 3 point shooting and rebounding concern me. However, I'm not sure this UD team has ever been the favorite in their 8 NCAA games.
I believe they were favorites against Stanford and Boise.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
I believe they were favorites against Stanford and Boise.
I think you are right. It was 1 point either way though as I remember. I can't remember if we were favored last year against Syracuse or not.
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  #77  
Old 03-13-2017, 08:31 PM
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Interesting.

The tone of the arguments sounds familiar. Average P5 schools refuse to travel to successful mid majors, and use their OOC conference to pile up a 7-10 NCAA seed. WS is proving it can use the same strategy if you have piled together enough strong seasons.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:31 PM
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Interesting.

The tone of the arguments sounds familiar. Average P5 schools refuse to travel to successful mid majors, and use their OOC conference to pile up a 7-10 NCAA seed. WS is proving it can use the same strategy if you have piled together enough strong seasons.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:31 PM
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I ran some more numbers with the following in mind. 1. We have been a slow starting first half team on too many nights this year. How does WSU play in the first half? I also factored in WSU fans have posted they made a guard switch in the last two months or so and it helped the team. So I only looked at game played in 2017. They played 20. We played 18.

A: They average 39 points in the first half. We average 35. Anyone like our chances if we are only 4 points behind at half? I do, against ANYONE. We have and can turn it on in the second half. 4 points down at half is a winnable game on any night. It's 10+ that isn't a lock every night.

2. So then I wanted to put a point of reference on the 39/35. All these games were conference games. So I took the current rpi of all the teams played by both programs and counted each opponent the number of times played. How good do those 4 points look when you compare SOS since Jan?

A: WSU's competition averaged an rpi of 187.3. UD's average was 131.7. HUGE difference of more than 55 points.

You still have to show up and play the game. You have to show up in the first half. But I like these numbers. WSU averages 4 points more than us in the first half, but it's against way weaker competition.

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Old 03-13-2017, 08:42 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I am a very big fan of Kenpom and familiar with his ratings. So speaking in Kenpom speak - Dayton went 2-5 in "A" games. WSU went 0-4. Your friend points out that WSU changed guard positions for 3 of those losses.

I don't plan on going over to WSU forum and letting everyone know the following, but Dayton was plagued with injuries this year in the 3 "A" team losses. Dayton got back to full strength the week before the VCU game in which they clinched the regular season title. After that for the first time in their careers that I can remember they celebrated a little. They knew they were a NCAA lock and coasted. You can't coast against Top 100 teams.

These seniors have beat the following teams in their careers:

2014 Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, California, Ole Miss, Ohio State *, Syracuse *, Stanford *
2015 Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Boise St, Providence
2016 Alabama, Iowa, Vanderbilt
2017 Alabama, Vanderbilt, (Conf Tourney Champs: Rhode Island, Winthrop, and East Tenn State)


Our average margin of victory against rpi 140+ teams is 20 points. We only played 8 of those games. The 22 other games on our schedule were against teams with rpi's lower than the 3rd best rpi team in the MVC. I'd love to know what our kenpom rating would be if we just took those games into account.

So please pardon us if we don't roll over, shiver, and say OMG - we have to play Wichita State after what this senior class has been through.

The NCAA is an opportunity to compete against really good teams. Guess what? - they all are really good regardless of your seed. These seniors at 5-3 in the NCAA tournament know this.
You forgot to mention the wins against big time rival SLU for the Arch Baron Cup. Nothing builds character and a championship mentality like that.

As Scoochie said yesterday, he expects 'Indy to be LOWD...with a W!' If you're WSU the one thing you can't scout or prepare for our are fans.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:57 PM
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Originally Posted by LongTimeShocker View Post
My apologies if I offended posters here. At no time did I intend to slight Dayton or even imply that WSU would win the game. I SERIOUSLY do not believe WSU is a 10-seed. I was expecting something in the 6-7 range.

I was hoping my introduction of the players to Dayton fans would give fans here a better understanding of their opponent and more appreciation of the game when it is played. I enjoy having knowledge of the players for opponents so I know what to watch for in games.

When I look at Dayton's W/L record and the teams they've played I have a lot of respect for the Flyers. I think WSU is in for the toughest game they've played since November - and we lost to Oklahoma State in Wichita in December.
I was about to defend you after reading UD90 remarks. I see nothing insulting in your original post, nor of course this one. Totally cold, professional analysis of your team (extremely helpful and welcome to me!) and totally honest about seeding.

no issues. Seems like a great, great matchup. Should be high energy. Of course depending on which Hekyll/Jekyl UD team shows up. The one that can score 85-90 points and is unbeatable. Or the 72 point, mistake prone to missing layups or defensive defensive rotation or hedging or negating the 3 lapses.

We have good steal and assist ratios. So I'm hoping we play the passing lanes , like we usually do. And that Scoochie is able to have influence on the Shockers in the First 8 minutes. IF Scooch is scoring or passing (say 8 to 10 points in the first half) or dishing to 4 or 5 other scorers -- we will solidly in the game.

He has lapses. Darrell Davis has lapses going to the basket or shooting the 3. But seems to have reeled that in the last 4 to 5 games. So that leaves good games from Josh Cunningham/Kendall Pollard, Cooke, X Williams and whoever else shows up on offense.... game on.

I suspect some feeling out the other team early and some run and gun. Should be dynamic, fun, several lead changes. And hopefully down to the wire.

Or maybe not! I"m guessing Flyers 81 , Shockers 77

Game on and Good luck WSU!
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:59 PM
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Originally Posted by 224 View Post
You forgot to mention the wins against big time rival SLU for the Arch Baron Cup. Nothing builds character and a championship mentality like that.

As Scoochie said yesterday, he expects 'Indy to be LOWD...with a W!' If you're WSU the one thing you can't scout or prepare for our are fans.
Huge reason we did so well in 2014, in First Four in 2015 and Providence.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:02 PM
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Beckys TXA first point is brilliant and spot on.

As is the last 20 game one 3 or 4 posts above this.
Why i feel pretty good about this game.

Thanks for contributing!!!
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:05 PM
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There is a reason CBS has us as the prime time game on Friday night. They know these are two good teams that are overly motivated. It is going to be a great game that should give both teams a nice number of eye balls paying attention.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:45 PM
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This game would have been much more exciting if it was a sweet 16 game instead of round 1. Both teams are capable of performing magic and it would have been better for them to match up later in the tournament.

The NCAA put together an exciting matchup, just too early.
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:42 PM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
So,when WSU joins the A-10, what current teams in your conference, if any, would you think would be a good fit for joining the A-10 at the same time. Of course my next question is why? Thanks
Bradley. They are down right now but that is only temporary. They are private and don't have football, they have a strong basketball history, a dedicated fanbase, and devote more resources to basketball than any team in the MVC outside of WSU.

Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
What are your thoughts on all this AAC talk? Does Wichita State have football? Do they want to have D-I football?
I hope WSU gets into the AAC. I would also be happy with the A10 or Big East but neither of those seem likely so the AAC is probably our best hope to escape the MVC.

We don't have football right now and while there is nostalgia for it restarting the program it might not be such a good thing. We were never very good and the prospects of a restarted program being decent in the future are remote due to our location and the area's demographics.

Right now it looks like we would be the 12th all sports team in the AAC and would counterbalance Navy which is football only so we would not need to restart our football program.

Originally Posted by FrankStreetFlyer View Post
So, anyone got questions about WSU?
I am a bit shocked (no pun) reading through this as a Flyer fan. WSU is obviously a very good team and I hope we are able to handle you guys. Thanks to those that described your team and players. I had the chance to see a couple of your games but that was very helpful and insightful.

It would be great to schedule home and aways in the future.

My question is this. When I saw you screwed into a 10 seed, I wondered if this is the kick that would get you to join the American Conference as rumored earlier this year in that clickbait article.[/QUOTE]WSU has desired a move to a better conference for a while. If the AAC will take us we will gladly go.
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:53 PM
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I've avoided discussing metrics, kenpom, etc, but I found this ranking that puts WSU 38 spots above Dayton.

http://www.nj.com/rutgersbasketball/...ournament.html

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Old 03-13-2017, 11:46 PM
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Originally Posted by LongTimeShocker View Post
I've avoided discussing metrics, kenpom, etc, but I found this ranking that puts WSU 38 spots above Dayton.

http://www.nj.com/rutgersbasketball/...ournament.html
You're alright. Sorry I misinterpreted your earlier enthusiasm for arrogance.

I'm just blown away that the Providence Friar is above us Looks like a child of the grim reaper and Casper the friendly ghost.
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Old 03-13-2017, 11:55 PM
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Originally Posted by WheatShock View Post
So, anyone got questions about WSU?
Why doesn't WSU play 15 home games and 15 away/neutral games every season? They have done this in the past, but they played 16 home and 14 away/neutral this year.

That extra good game helps improve your sos and number of top 50 games.

LongTimeShocker was complaining upthread about your scheduling problems.

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Old 03-14-2017, 01:37 AM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA View Post
I ran some more numbers with the following in mind. 1. We have been a slow starting first half team on too many nights this year. How does WSU play in the first half? I also factored in WSU fans have posted they made a guard switch in the last two months or so and it helped the team. So I only looked at game played in 2017. They played 20. We played 18.
We have certainly had our fair share of problems in the first half. In the MVC tourney against Bradley, who isn't good, it took us 4 minutes to put our first points on the board; against Missouri St. they jumped out on us 12-2 in the first 5 minutes. We came out too jacked up and turned the ball over way too much.

Of our losses:

Oklahoma St. jumped out on us 9-1 and never looked back. We didn't defend the perimeter well at the time, and they didn't miss. One of the few times under Gregg we have been truly embarrassed.

Louisville didn't jump out on us but led by as much as 16 in the first half. We looked shellshocked against their length and athleticism.

Michigan St. I don't remember how the game started, but they led by as much as 18 in the first half. We clawed back in the 2nd half, but fell short, with a shot in the air to win it.

So, your answer is, in games against solid competition, poorly. We have looked intimidated and shocked against the teams on our schedule that are actually at this level. As mentioned, we were searching for a rotation early, and it took us a while to find one. Also, since our losses in November and December, our D1 experience as a team has essentially doubled. I don't think anyone can give you an idea one way or the other whether we will start out the game well or not. It is comforting to know that maybe you don't always start out great too, maybe we feel each other out for the first 5-10 minutes.

In the games we do start out well, typically the blitz is on. But none of those have been against high-quality competition.

Not to get into metrics, but the reason you'll see a lot of Shockers spouting Kenpom as the Basketball Bible is a lot based on our previous seasons results. Last year, we were high in Kenpom and blitzed Vandy and Arizona. It was a similar situation the year before when we beat the Chickens, I think we were actually close to a pick em by Kenpom and Vegas in that game. I think we were favored against Miami, but Fred took a while to figure out how to guard Rodriguez and again, we fell behind by nearly 20 points in the first half and made a valiant effort to try and pull off the win but fell short. None of those years did we have a stellar schedule. Last year our only really good win was against Utah. Obviously, we Shockers are hopeful Kenpom and Vegas are accurate again, but really, in the tourney, anything can happen and you never know.

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Old 03-14-2017, 01:53 AM
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I also want to say, not that it means much, but if you do beat us, I will watch every one of your games and root for you as if you were us, and want you to win the national championship.
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  #92  
Old 03-14-2017, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Shocked View Post
I also want to say, not that it means much, but if you do beat us, I will watch every one of your games and root for you as if you were us, and want you to win the national championship.
And if UD loses to you I'll do the same. Though I'll likely be recovering from a stroke from laughing so hard about WSU beating UK in Indy. I HATE UK, their coach and their smug "fans"...
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  #93  
Old 03-14-2017, 08:29 AM
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Shocked- your description above about falling behind in the first half an crawling your way back into it, winning some and falling short in others...I thought I was reading about the Flyers' season. Lord help us if both these teams struggle like this in the first half on Friday. That prime time exposure could turn into a basketball game that's hard to watch. I'm thinking about how ugly we have looked in some games this year in the first 20 minutes...x2. Yikes! LOL
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Old 03-14-2017, 08:54 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Why doesn't WSU play 15 home games and 15 away/neutral games every season? They have done this in the past, but they played 16 home and 14 away/neutral this year.

That extra good game helps improve your sos and number of top 50 games.

LongTimeShocker was complaining upthread about your scheduling problems.
We probably couldn't get that last away/neutral game worked out with somebody this year. Either nobody wanted to give us a return game or the dates didn't work out. This has happened a couple times in the past because coach Marshall refuses to do buy games.

We had to schedule the extra home game against a DII school just to fill in the hole in the schedule since it was to late to get a D1 matchup.
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Old 03-14-2017, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted by AndShock View Post
Bradley is a good fit for the A10. Private school. No football. 6k attendance per game even though they've been horrible for a decade. They have made a couple decent hires on paper but they just haven't worked out, yet. Their current coach, Wardle, is improving but isn't quite there yet. They are actually trying to be good at basketball which is more than could be said about over half of the Valley schools.
Originally Posted by WheatShock View Post
Bradley. They are down right now but that is only temporary. They are private and don't have football, they have a strong basketball history, a dedicated fanbase, and devote more resources to basketball than any team in the MVC outside of WSU.


.

Interesting to hear Bradley, as I thought when Hersey Hawkins left he took the keys to the gym with him. The A-10 has enough of the temporarily down programs, we need a few who are up, and will stay up and make the league as a whole better. Anyone else besides Bradley?

In an ideal world, the best of the A-10, best few of the MVC, and maybe a couple other programs separate themselves from the dead beats that are at the bottom of the conferences and form our own power conference.
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Old 03-14-2017, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted by WheatShock View Post
We probably couldn't get that last away/neutral game worked out with somebody this year. Either nobody wanted to give us a return game or the dates didn't work out. This has happened a couple times in the past because coach Marshall refuses to do buy games.

We had to schedule the extra home game against a DII school just to fill in the hole in the schedule since it was to late to get a D1 matchup.
Interesting UD had the same issue at the beginning of the season. We went and lined up a DII school from Indiana. UD had attempted to work out something with an unnamed school, but the dates or something like that prevented a match up.

Would it be interesting if the issue we had and the issue you had was between the both of us???
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Old 03-14-2017, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
Interesting to hear Bradley, as I thought when Hersey Hawkins left he took the keys to the gym with him. The A-10 has enough of the temporarily down programs, we need a few who are up, and will stay up and make the league as a whole better. Anyone else besides Bradley?

In an ideal world, the best of the A-10, best few of the MVC, and maybe a couple other programs separate themselves from the dead beats that are at the bottom of the conferences and form our own power conference.
I don't think I could recommend anyone besides Bradley or WSU. I understand about not wanting down programs but all but a few blue blood schools have their down years, even my Shockers sucked in the 90s. If I was forming a super league I would base my invites more on resources and who has the ability and desire to sustain success than on who is good right now.

As for other MVC schools. Northern Iowa and Illinios State have had recent success but neither one has the resources to sustain a high level program long term. Both will be up and down especially if they lose their coaches. Missouri State would be an interesting add if they weren't so disfunctional.
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Old 03-14-2017, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by WheatShock View Post
So, anyone got questions about WSU?
Sure....what the he!! is a Shocker?...And why is (it?) so upset?

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  #99  
Old 03-14-2017, 12:17 PM
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  #100  
Old 03-14-2017, 12:27 PM
LongTimeShocker LongTimeShocker is offline
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Originally Posted by UDBaby View Post
Sure....what the he!! is a Shocker?...And why is (it?) so upset?

In the early days of WSU (over 100 years ago), the football players earned money over the summer by shocking wheat. That is gathering up wheat stalks that have been cut, grouping them into shocks, and tying them together for the crew that would come in and thresh the wheat to separate the grain from the rest.

It is back-breaking hard labor in intense heat, so wheat shockers were considered some of the toughest and hardest working of all farm laborers.

When it was decided to give the football team a nickname, one person in the athletic department came up with WheatShockers. In modern language, wheat shockers has lost all meaning, so the common form of WheatShockers is now just Shockers. We get a lot of interesting comments when we play East Coast teams, since The Shocker has meaning there. There's also a WSU hand gesture for a "W", that's incredibly similar to the East Coast obscene gesture associated with The Shocker.

We used to have little old ladies waving big foam hand gestures with the words "Give 'Em The Shocker" and the hand gesture for the East Coast version of The Shocker.
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