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Old 01-15-2019, 03:19 PM
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Bracketology

ESPN has us as a 12 seed as of today. Also has VCU in the "next four out". Of course, tomorrow night will have a lot to say about all of that.

Along the same lines, ESPN has Dayton as one of their Giant Killers to watch for the tourney. Main reason they like us has to do with our efficiency in the paint and the resulting high FG%.

It's early, but either way I'm happy there is at least some buzz around this team. They are exceeding my expectations coming into the year. Should be a very interesting couple of months!
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:35 PM
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CBS/Jerry Palm posted their Bracketology an hour ago and St. Louis is the sole A10 team included.

I like ESPN's better...
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:35 PM
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Lunardi must be giving the auto bid to the team with the highest BPI - UD at 64.
VCU is 66, Davidson is 93 and SLU is 109.
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Old 01-15-2019, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Lunardi must be giving the auto bid to the team with the highest BPI - UD at 64.
VCU is 66, Davidson is 93 and SLU is 109.
Must be. I can't figure out who's using what metrics. Nor does it really matter, I guess. UD won't get serious consideration for an at-large unless we go ~15-3 in A10 play. We play 5 games against teams that could/should provide a quality win (2 vs SLU, 2 vs VCU, 1 vs Davidson). 3 of those 5 games are on the road. We'll probably need to snag 3 of those 5 games and lay just one egg (presumably somewhere else on the road) to warrant reasonable consideration.

I do like our chances to compete if we were to get to the NCAA's. We've demonstrated the ability to play with the best, just need to get there. Our margin for error for getting there is very thin over the next 15 games. Otherwise, win 3 in a row in March.
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Old 01-15-2019, 04:02 PM
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To have hope of the NCAA at this point in the season is at worst "on schedule" for the program after Archie left. Picking up an unheralded PG at the last minute and the defections when AG came, I'll take it.

If we didn't have a pipeline for next year it would be different, but I'd call it solidly on schedule. We're 1 player (like a Cooke or Siebert) away from "expecting" to be in the NCAA tournament this year. We never got that player, so the team is the team, but they aren't bad. Next year I think we have that team.
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Old 01-15-2019, 04:15 PM
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I thought that this NIT bracketology was interesting. UD a 3 seed potentially hosting 6 seed Xavier in the first round, lol.

https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
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Old 01-15-2019, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I thought that this NIT bracketology was interesting. UD a 3 seed potentially hosting 6 seed Xavier in the first round, lol.

https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

I think we're ahead of schedule as a program. After the mess/bad attitudes/weak players AG inherited I don't believe too many people thought we could make the NCAA this season, or even have much of a chance. Considering where we stand right now, I think we are ahead of schedule. Most (including me) thought we would be back to NCAA caliber next season. AG had to clean house and add good players, which he did, but most of them are sitting out this season. I would not be terribly disappointed with a home NIT game this year and the NCAA next season. I think that is where most people thought we would be. Some didn't think we would even make the NIT this year.
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Old 01-15-2019, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I thought that this NIT bracketology was interesting. UD a 3 seed potentially hosting 6 seed Xavier in the first round, lol.

https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
I admit to just hoping for solid improvement over last year with no real guess as to how that might play out. I'm pleased with where we are, especially after that brutal start against ranked teams.

But a win at VCU would really validate our bracketology projections. So far in the A10 we have beaten 3 bottom feeders. Tomorrow's away game feels like a date with Cintas. Need to show up big.
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Old 01-15-2019, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
I think we're ahead of schedule as a program. After the mess/bad attitudes/weak players AG inherited I don't believe too many people thought we could make the NCAA this season, or even have much of a chance. Considering where we stand right now, I think we are ahead of schedule. Most (including me) thought we would be back to NCAA caliber next season. AG had to clean house and add good players, which he did, but most of them are sitting out this season. I would not be terribly disappointed with a home NIT game this year and the NCAA next season. I think that is where most people thought we would be. Some didn't think we would even make the NIT this year.
I remember that we were not even listed in the "Top 144" preseason site. I thought that was a joke at the time, especially after I saw the Obi video.

I would not be surprised to see this team go on a long win streak.
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Old 01-15-2019, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
I think we're ahead of schedule as a program. After the mess/bad attitudes/weak players AG inherited I don't believe too many people thought we could make the NCAA this season, or even have much of a chance. Considering where we stand right now, I think we are ahead of schedule. Most (including me) thought we would be back to NCAA caliber next season. AG had to clean house and add good players, which he did, but most of them are sitting out this season. I would not be terribly disappointed with a home NIT game this year and the NCAA next season. I think that is where most people thought we would be. Some didn't think we would even make the NIT this year.
I agree, but will only add that rationally what you describe is the "best case" scenario. After the mess AM left us, the down side could have been longer. Coach Grant did what he had to- weed out certain players and save our bacon with some awesome timely recruiting. Crutcher as one example- are you kidding me we got him when we did?
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Old 01-15-2019, 06:03 PM
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Old 01-15-2019, 06:18 PM
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This season has a long way to go and even an NIT bid is far from assured. But I don’t think any rational person can look at this program and not see significant improvement, including with AG’s development as a coach.

We all suspected he would be a good recruiter, and he’s exceeded my expectations even on that front. Jalen? Obi? The transfers biding their time till next year? Four-star commits in Dwayne and Chase? He’s assembled a truly impressive batch of athletes and completely fine-tuned the culture of the program. And as far as X’s and O’s, I think he’s turned a corner there, and in part because his staff is first-rate.

These next two road games will be difficult, and if things don’t go as hoped, we’ll still see folks jumping off the bandwagon. That’s just the nature of some fans. But on the whole, we have reason for optimism — now and in the future.
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Old 01-15-2019, 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
This season has a long way to go and even an NIT bid is far from assured. But I don’t think any rational person can look at this program and not see significant improvement, including with AG’s development as a coach.

We all suspected he would be a good recruiter, and he’s exceeded my expectations even on that front. Jalen? Obi? The transfers biding their time till next year? Four-star commits in Dwayne and Chase? He’s assembled a truly impressive batch of athletes and completely fine-tuned the culture of the program. And as far as X’s and O’s, I think he’s turned a corner there, and in part because his staff is first-rate.

These next two road games will be difficult, and if things don’t go as hoped, we’ll still see folks jumping off the bandwagon. That’s just the nature of some fans. But on the whole, we have reason for optimism — now and in the future.
Good point on the coaching abilities of AG. He has done a good job of managing the game situations. Folks were a bit concerned about that at the beginning. couple the courtside ability and the recruiting ability and I believe AG is on the path to success.
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Old 01-15-2019, 07:17 PM
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The team must focus on the game at hand.
UDPride can speculate on what it will take to dance. Unless the Flyers lay a bad egg, 24 wins gets us in.
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:52 AM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
This season has a long way to go and even an NIT bid is far from assured. But I don’t think any rational person can look at this program and not see significant improvement, including with AG’s development as a coach.

We all suspected he would be a good recruiter, and he’s exceeded my expectations even on that front. Jalen? Obi? The transfers biding their time till next year? Four-star commits in Dwayne and Chase? He’s assembled a truly impressive batch of athletes and completely fine-tuned the culture of the program. And as far as X’s and O’s, I think he’s turned a corner there, and in part because his staff is first-rate.

These next two road games will be difficult, and if things don’t go as hoped, we’ll still see folks jumping off the bandwagon. That’s just the nature of some fans. But on the whole, we have reason for optimism — now and in the future.
Spot-on.

52% chance to go 1-1 versus VCU and St. Bonnies
28% chance to go 0-2 versus VCU and St. Bonnies
20% chance to go 2-0 versus VCU and St. Bonnies
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:09 AM
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Totally agree, Coach is doing an excellent job. The only thing I have questioned this year, is the original thought of red shirting FRANKIE. But Anthony Grant is a hell of a man, and becoming one fine head basketball coach. I was in favor of his hire; and I firmly believe amazing things are going to be accomplished under his direction.

He really didn't need this job; so I want to say thank you Coach Grant for coming home to lead the program. I strongly support you. Furthermore, the UD administration deserves credit for having the wisdom and strength to hire Grant. As they could have easily said no thank you, due to his time at Alabama, but were wise enough to see the potential upside of bringing a popular former player home to lead the program.
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:33 AM
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And then there were 2. Davidson loses to St Joe. SLU and Dayton only teams unbeaten in conference.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:04 AM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
This season has a long way to go and even an NIT bid is far from assured. But I don’t think any rational person can look at this program and not see significant improvement, including with AG’s development as a coach.

We all suspected he would be a good recruiter, and he’s exceeded my expectations even on that front. Jalen? Obi? The transfers biding their time till next year? Four-star commits in Dwayne and Chase? He’s assembled a truly impressive batch of athletes and completely fine-tuned the culture of the program. And as far as X’s and O’s, I think he’s turned a corner there, and in part because his staff is first-rate.

These next two road games will be difficult, and if things don’t go as hoped, we’ll still see folks jumping off the bandwagon. That’s just the nature of some fans. But on the whole, we have reason for optimism — now and in the future.
The thing that’s most pleasing to me at this point is our team chemistry. We haven’t seen a Flyer squad pull together like this since before the “Bro Code” got violated in the middle of the 2015-16 season. These guys all seem to know not only their own strengths and weaknesses, but those of their teammates as well. And they seem to be taking the court for every game with 1 objective: win. Not “I have to get my 20”. Not “Gotta get on ESPN Top Ten”. Not “I don’t care what Coach says; I’m going to play MY game.” Just “Win”. VERY refreshing!
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
Good point on the coaching abilities of AG. He has done a good job of managing the game situations. Folks were a bit concerned about that at the beginning. couple the courtside ability and the recruiting ability and I believe AG is on the path to success.

I was happy seeing him tell his players to commit a foul on the last possession knowing we had fouls to give.

Seems so simple to do that, but I feel not all coaches would have done the same.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by shwag33 View Post
I was happy seeing him tell his players to commit a foul on the last possession knowing we had fouls to give.

Seems so simple to do that, but I feel not all coaches would have done the same.
It is not too often that college teams have fouls to give at the end of the game. In the NBA it is pretty common at the end of the quarter. Also, remember last year at Miss St?
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:43 PM
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Originally Posted by shwag33 View Post
I was happy seeing him tell his players to commit a foul on the last possession knowing we had fouls to give.

Seems so simple to do that, but I feel not all coaches would have done the same.
The coaches have also done a great job of instructing players not to foul. I thought the announcers said we are in the top ten in least fouls committed. Not only does it keep our short bench in the game, it also cuts down on freebies for the other team.
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Old 01-16-2019, 04:06 PM
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I think VCU, SLU, and Davidson have a chance for at-large bids, we still have some work to do IMO...really miss www.rpiforecast.com, which made analyzing all of these numbers SO much easier.


RPI/SOS

VCU 31, 20
Davidson 41, 51
SLU 56, 144
Dayton 73, 62

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_atl10_Men.html
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Old 01-16-2019, 04:31 PM
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Keep in mind the Selection Committee will not use RPI anymore, but NET:

VCU: 55
Davidson: 75
SLU: 67
UD: 73

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basket...l-net-rankings
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Old 01-16-2019, 04:36 PM
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Right, but for sure they will check their work the next few years against the RPI. So I wouldn't totally discount it just yet.
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Old 01-16-2019, 07:53 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Spot-on.

52% chance to go 1-1 versus VCU and St. Bonnies
28% chance to go 0-2 versus VCU and St. Bonnies
20% chance to go 2-0 versus VCU and St. Bonnies

I'll take 1-1 this week. It is TOUGH to win on the road. Just ask 3-0 Davidson when they played 0-4 St Joe. There are many, many other examples. Someone in another thread mentioned that some people don't seem to realize just how tough it is to win on the road. Some think we should win all of our home games and also beat good teams on the road. Well, those other good teams think they should win all of their home games too. I don't think we are far enough along in our rebuild to beat a bunch of good teams on the road. Maybe next year with a full roster we will be.
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Old 01-16-2019, 08:07 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
I'll take 1-1 this week. It is TOUGH to win on the road. Just ask 3-0 Davidson when they played 0-4 St Joe. There are many, many other examples. Someone in another thread mentioned that some people don't seem to realize just how tough it is to win on the road. Some think we should win all of our home games and also beat good teams on the road. Well, those other good teams think they should win all of their home games too. I don't think we are far enough along in our rebuild to beat a bunch of good teams on the road. Maybe next year with a full roster we will be.
You are probably correct. Percentages suggest so as well. Some of us hoping/wishing for 2-0 this week need to also acknowledge that percentages suggest 0-2 is more likely than 2-0.
The road is a grind and the struggle is real.
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Old 01-17-2019, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted by zmz723 View Post
Keep in mind the Selection Committee will not use RPI anymore, but NET:

VCU: 55
Davidson: 75
SLU: 67
UD: 73

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basket...l-net-rankings
Yes, but the NET ranking is just about a complete unknown at this time, there has been very little explanation of the formula used to manufacture it.

I would like to have a baseline, whether it be rpi, bpi, kenpom, kpi, or whatever, to compare the NET too.

I have a feeling that the NET is not going to be an improvement over the old method that the selection committee used.
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Old 01-17-2019, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Yes, but the NET ranking is just about a complete unknown at this time, there has been very little explanation of the formula used to manufacture it.

I would like to have a baseline, whether it be rpi, bpi, kenpom, kpi, or whatever, to compare the NET too.

I have a feeling that the NET is not going to be an improvement over the old method that the selection committee used.
I think whether it is an improvement will depend on what is your perspective.
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Old 01-17-2019, 12:26 PM
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It will create the same disputes and arguments as the RPI. Because at the end of the day, there will always be teams/schools and conferences, and pundits, fans and talking heads, who say this team or conference got jolted.
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Old 02-12-2019, 05:34 PM
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Updated 2 days ago...4 seed NIT...BG and USF also a 4...would be a lot of fun to play them in a 4 vs. 5 game.

https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
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Old 02-12-2019, 05:41 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Yes, but the NET ranking is just about a complete unknown at this time, there has been very little explanation of the formula used to manufacture it.

I would like to have a baseline, whether it be rpi, bpi, kenpom, kpi, or whatever, to compare the NET too.

I have a feeling that the NET is not going to be an improvement over the old method that the selection committee used.
What I really want to see is how it would look if data from last season were input into the NET calculation.
How different would have the teams in the field and seeding have been?
To my knowledge, it's never been published.

Until something like that is done, I don't know how anyone can really predict anything outside of the very top teams and the likely conference tournament champions.
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Old 02-12-2019, 08:35 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Updated 2 days ago...4 seed NIT...BG and USF also a 4...would be a lot of fun to play them in a 4 vs. 5 game.

https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

How about #4 seed Dayton vs #5 seed Providence! And Indiana Last Four In the NCAA???
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Old 02-12-2019, 10:38 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
How about #4 seed Dayton vs #5 seed Providence! And Indiana Last Four In the NCAA???
you're talking 4 seed in NCAA! What are you smoking. That would take perfect end of season to get close to that.

In reality , i think we lose 1 maybe two more in the regular.
And end up in the Finals of the A10. We could be a bubble team or a very high 13 or 14 seed at best.

Unless we win the A10. I'm happy to talk positively about where we are going, but I like to keeps it real too .
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Old 02-12-2019, 10:51 PM
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#4 seed in NIT is what attachment shows ... vs Providence in NIT
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 86 View Post
you're talking 4 seed in NCAA! What are you smoking. That would take perfect end of season to get close to that.

In reality , i think we lose 1 maybe two more in the regular.
And end up in the Finals of the A10. We could be a bubble team or a very high 13 or 14 seed at best.

Unless we win the A10. I'm happy to talk positively about where we are going, but I like to keeps it real too .

I guess you didn't read the post. It's talking about a 4 seed in the NIT.
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Old 02-13-2019, 12:04 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
How about #4 seed Dayton vs #5 seed Providence! And Indiana Last Four In the NCAA???
Only at Indiana can you be 13-11, lose 9 of the last 10 games including 4 at home and still be NCAA worthy. How much good will can one program earn before its revoked? Apparently there is no bottom. At Dayton, you could win 9 out of the last 10, lose at Fordham, and your dreams are shot -- because Fordham.
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Old 02-13-2019, 09:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Only at Indiana can you be 13-11, lose 9 of the last 10 games including 4 at home and still be NCAA worthy. How much good will can one program earn before its revoked? Apparently there is no bottom. At Dayton, you could win 9 out of the last 10, lose at Fordham, and your dreams are shot -- because Fordham.
And yet there's no solution. They own the game. The NCAA isn't willing to do anything about it, they'll just keep riding the golden goose of the NCAA tournament and pretend that non P5 schools have a chance every year. Meanwhile, teams that can't even muster .500 in their conference are invited, over-seeded, and significant number lose their first round game, but they passed the eye test, so it was all bueno.
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Old 02-13-2019, 10:21 AM
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Indiana being on there is just laziness. I wouldn't read into that too much. There is no chance Indiana gets an at-large bid. Their next 5 games are brutal. It wouldn't be surprising if they lost all 5. Even that game @Illinois could be a problem for them. They can forget being .500 in the Big Ten. That ship sailed a while ago. They'd be extremely lucky to finish .500 overall.
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Old 02-13-2019, 10:47 AM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan View Post
And yet there's no solution. They own the game. The NCAA isn't willing to do anything about it, they'll just keep riding the golden goose of the NCAA tournament and pretend that non P5 schools have a chance every year. Meanwhile, teams that can't even muster .500 in their conference are invited, over-seeded, and significant number lose their first round game, but they passed the eye test, so it was all bueno.
There’s no solution because the NCAA doesn’t recognize it as a problem. Isn’t Step 1 of an addiction treatment program always the recognition by the subject that he/she has a problem? The same applies here. Until the NCAA gets over its hubris regarding the P5, we’ll continue to see Round of 64 games that feature 22-13 P5 teams that finished 7th in their conference pitted against 27-4 teams who won their “unwashed heathen” conference, and when said little guy waxes the court with the P5 also-ran, the talking heads will crow about the “tremendous upset” of Football Money State U by Our Lady of Perpetual Optimism.
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Old 02-13-2019, 11:19 AM
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This is an ESPN Insider article but I believe most/many can read them because you have an ESPN+ account. Lunardi points out that losing is no longer what it used to be and that the P5 that get in when they really don't deserve it, end up losing in the tourney.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...ets-overlooked

It will be very interesting to see how things play out with respect to the Buffalo's, Wofford's etc if they lose in their conference tourneys - good NETs but not a great resume. Will the media point out the hypocrisy if they get passed over?
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Old 02-13-2019, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
This is an ESPN Insider article but I believe most/many can read them because you have an ESPN+ account. Lunardi points out that losing is no longer what it used to be and that the P5 that get in when they really don't deserve it, end up losing in the tourney.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...ets-overlooked

It will be very interesting to see how things play out with respect to the Buffalo's, Wofford's etc if they lose in their conference tourneys - good NETs but not a great resume. Will the media point out the hypocrisy if they get passed over?
I've been saying for a long time now that winning and losing don't mean enough anymore. I get that not all wins or losses are the same but the object of the game is and always has been to WIN not lose by a little to a good team. Name me another major sport where win/loss record is not the determining factor. Again I get that there are more than 300 teams in DI so there needs to be some formula to determine better wins than others, but to me a loss is a loss.

As for the media there will be some that point out the hypocrisy, but not the ones who cover one of the P5 schools...
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Old 02-13-2019, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
I've been saying for a long time now that winning and losing don't mean enough anymore. I get that not all wins or losses are the same but the object of the game is and always has been to WIN not lose by a little to a good team. Name me another major sport where win/loss record is not the determining factor. Again I get that there are more than 300 teams in DI so there needs to be some formula to determine better wins than others, but to me a loss is a loss.

As for the media there will be some that point out the hypocrisy, but not the ones who cover one of the P5 schools...
They are rewarding winning by a lot! So playing terrible teams - at home - and winning by a ton is the way to go. NC State is the best example. They are sitting at a fricking 9 seed today and their best ACC win is Clemson. Their best non-con win was Auburn - at home.
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Old 02-13-2019, 11:35 AM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
They are rewarding winning by a lot! So playing terrible teams - at home - and winning by a ton is the way to go. NC State is the best example. They are sitting at a fricking 9 seed today and their best ACC win is Clemson. Their best non-con win was Auburn - at home.
So like I said they should have some formula to determine which wins are better than others but losses should be losses should be losses!
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Old 02-13-2019, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
So like I said they should have some formula to determine which wins are better than others but losses should be losses should be losses!
RPI wasn't that bad. It just needed some tweaking. More credit for road wins in particular.
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Old 02-13-2019, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Until the NCAA gets over its hubris regarding the P5, we’ll continue to see Round of 64 games that feature 22-13 P5 teams that finished 7th in their conference pitted against 27-4 teams who won their “unwashed heathen” conference, and when said little guy waxes the court with the P5 also-ran, the talking heads will crow about the “tremendous upset” of Football Money State U by Our Lady of Perpetual Optimism.
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22-13? You're giving the NCAA too much credit. They have selected P-5 teams with a lot worse records than that.
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Old 02-13-2019, 12:17 PM
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Syracuse comes to mind because they passed the “eye test”.
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Old 02-13-2019, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
22-13? You're giving the NCAA too much credit. They have selected P-5 teams with a lot worse records than that.
Yes, but I was thinking that the 22-13 team from the P5 conference would be a 5-Seed, and the 27-4 team from the "heathen" conference would be a 12-Seed.
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Old 02-13-2019, 12:59 PM
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I don't get the love for efficiency ratings. I understand using them to gauge a team's improvement in certain areas. However, doesn't a coach/team play differently depending on the opponent? the score? the time? How often do you question what the player was thinking given the time/score? Sure there are questionable times when teams slow down the offense but if the goal is to win the game, should the offense get slowed up at some point? Same on D. No fouls, keep the clock running. Give up a 2 but not a 3.
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Old 02-13-2019, 01:44 PM
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Couldn't agree with you more CE80; you are spot on!

This is exactly why I continue to believe this years field, and likely the next several fields, will be checked against the RPI. Therefore, don't totally discount RPI in the current selectin equation. In other words, assuming they perform well down the stretch, don't be surprised if VCU has their name drawn as an at-large on Selection Sunday. I'm not saying they will, but if you buy into what I theorize about above, then VCU is still in this at-large picture.

I predict the NCAA will feel dramatic heat following this years selection process. They will keep a straight face, and pretend it went according to plan, but privately they will know its a cluster frick. This current system and plan sounds akin to a very inexperienced, and shall we say "Green", and gullible silly person from the NY area. Reality notwithstanding in their world, whatsoever.

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Old 02-13-2019, 04:09 PM
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  #51  
Old 02-18-2019, 12:45 AM
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Updated today...

https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/


We drop to a NIT 5 seed...BG and USF drop to a NIT 7...Archie and IU drop to a NIT 5...Davidson a NIT 2...Wright State is a NIT 8, they think that the Raiders will win the HL regular season title but lose in the HLT.

Would love to play IU in a 4 vs. 5 game.

Several of the 6?, 7, and 8 seeds in the NIT are NIT auto-bids given to regular season conference champs that lose in their conference tourneys.

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Old 02-18-2019, 01:07 AM
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And I noticed Ole Miss doing quite well these days at a 7 seed, the former MTSU hc Kermit Davis has them on the up. I am not used to seeing them that far up in the pecking order.


Ole Miss NCAAT history.

Year Seed Round Opponent Results

1981 No. 10 First Round No. 7 Kansas L 66–69
1997 No. 8 First Round No. 9 Temple L 40–62
1998 No. 4 First Round No. 13 Valparaiso L 69–70

1999 No. 9 First Round No. 8 Villanova W 72-70
Second round No. 1 Michigan State L 66–74

2001 No. 3 First Round No. 14 Iona W 72-70
Second Round No. 6 Notre Dame W 59-56
Sweet Sixteen No. 2 Arizona L 56–66

2002 No. 9 First Round No. 8 UCLA L 58–80

2013 No. 12 First Round No. 5 Wisconsin W 57-46
Second Round No. 13 La Salle L 74–76

2015 No. 11 First Four No. 11 BYU W 94-90
Second Round No. 6 Xavier L 57–76

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Old 02-18-2019, 10:00 AM
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I’m thinking if it’s a difference of one line, we will be a fifth instead of a fourth. This is for the simple fact We have the first four going on And the easiest way to keep from having Dayton play on a Thursday or Friday is to simply put us in the fifth slot where we would have an away game anyway.
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Old 02-22-2019, 11:01 AM
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https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

UD back up to a NIT 4 after the Davidson win...Davidson a 3...Wright State apparently now slotted to win the HLT or out completely, could go either way...USF a 6...Indiana drops out completely for now.

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Old 02-22-2019, 05:30 PM
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FIRST FOUR OUT: Clemson, UtahSt, SanFran, StMary. NEXT FOUR OUT: Lipscomb, SoCarolina, Georgetown, Dayton. CONSIDERED: Furman, MurraySt, Davidson, Indiana, Creighton, Arkansas.
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Old 02-22-2019, 05:49 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
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FIRST FOUR OUT: Clemson, UtahSt, SanFran, StMary. NEXT FOUR OUT: Lipscomb, SoCarolina, Georgetown, Dayton. CONSIDERED: Furman, MurraySt, Davidson, Indiana, Creighton, Arkansas.
With all the bubble teams tanking lately (IU, Lipscomb, Clemson, Arizona St, etc.) combined with the big W at Davidson, I guess we are actually a winning streak away from being a legitimate Last 4 IN. Incredible.
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Old 02-22-2019, 06:26 PM
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Originally Posted by 116 Chambers View Post
With all the bubble teams tanking lately (IU, Lipscomb, Clemson, Arizona St, etc.) combined with the big W at Davidson, I guess we are actually a winning streak away from being a legitimate Last 4 IN. Incredible.
I'd really like to believe that. I may drink some of that if we can rattle off another 2 or 3 in a row COMBINED with some 10/11/12 seeds tanking a little bit.

As mentioned above or in another thread, can't recall since I've been really active in several threads the last few days, I am concerned about the fact that we really have no opportunity to pick up any Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins even if we win the next 6 in a row. Looking at the other teams Joey has us bunched with there, I can't imagine that UtahSt, SanFran, St. Mary's, Lipscomb have too many opportunities for Q1/Q2 wins, short of massive upsets of either the Zags or Nevada. Gtwon, SouthCar and Clemson will have plenty, all of which might come at the expense of other bubble teams too. Clemson has no remaining games against "bubble" teams (not counting Cuse, they're pretty safe). GTown still plays Seton Hall and South Carolina still plays Alabama.

Bubble is so fluid this time of year. Of that list of teams (last 8 out and others considered) probably only half will be in the discussion 10 days from now. Let's take care of business so we're still getting talked about, even if it's only by the pundits and talking heads.
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Old 02-22-2019, 06:58 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
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FIRST FOUR OUT: Clemson, UtahSt, SanFran, StMary. NEXT FOUR OUT: Lipscomb, SoCarolina, Georgetown, Dayton. CONSIDERED: Furman, MurraySt, Davidson, Indiana, Creighton, Arkansas.
Interesting, because his Bracketology page on ESPN has no mention of us - guessing he updated it to bump us out or put us in the 2nd four out.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

Either way - this team is fun to watch and this season has been a step forward!
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Old 02-22-2019, 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by MNFats View Post
Interesting, because his Bracketology page on ESPN has no mention of us - guessing he updated it to bump us out or put us in the 2nd four out.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

Either way - this team is fun to watch and this season has been a step forward!
I think they haven't updated the Bracketology page. Pre release on Twitter
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Old 02-22-2019, 08:58 PM
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Almost every year, at the beginning of the season, people say the A10 is a one bid league. And almost every year, the A10 ends up with two or more bids. This year is no different. I believe the A10 will get at least two bids, and if all the stars align just so, the A10 may even get three bids.
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Old 02-22-2019, 10:41 PM
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To even be in consideration for an at-large this late in his second season is quite a testament to AG and staff considering the roster they inherited last season. Savor the progress...
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Old 02-23-2019, 12:14 AM
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The A-10 has received at least three bids for 11 seasons in a row, with one year with 6, one with 5, and one with 4. The two years prior to that it received 2 bids.
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Old 02-23-2019, 12:38 AM
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Old 02-23-2019, 12:41 AM
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Originally Posted by frisco flyer View Post
Almost every year, at the beginning of the season, people say the A10 is a one bid league. And almost every year, the A10 ends up with two or more bids. This year is no different. I believe the A10 will get at least two bids, and if all the stars align just so, the A10 may even get three bids.
Agree two bids is a real possibility. Can’t see a path for three this year.
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Old 02-23-2019, 12:42 AM
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The max for the A10 this year is 2 bids, unfortunately. Not enough quality win opportunities the rest of the way for both UD AND Davidson to play into at large contention. And if VCU wins the tourney, it will probably just be one. I think VCU is decent shape for an at-large. Hopefully someone other wins the tourney, say the Flyers, and we end up with 2 teams.
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Old 02-23-2019, 01:17 AM
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Dayton just fell out of the bubble conversation as IU just lost another in OT to fall to 13-14 and get themselves back squarely on the bubble.
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Old 02-23-2019, 08:36 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
Dayton just fell out of the bubble conversation as IU just lost another in OT to fall to 13-14 and get themselves back squarely on the bubble.
Man, when the P5 programs gain steam, they really gain steam.
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Old 02-23-2019, 08:42 AM
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I’ll be interested to see how accurate Dance Card is this year, assuming UNF’s algorithm whizzes haven’t given up on predicting the field with the NET superseding the RPI as a primary barometer. Of course, they’ll need to adapt their formulas to account for a greater level of P5 bias. And not sure how other non-P5 conferences/teams are faring, but our early losses to Quad 1 opponents made UNF’s job a bit easier.
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Old 02-23-2019, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
I’ll be interested to see how accurate Dance Card is this year, assuming UNF’s algorithm whizzes haven’t given up on predicting the field with the NET superseding the RPI as a primary barometer. Of course, they’ll need to adapt their formulas to account for a greater level of P5 bias. And not sure how other non-P5 conferences/teams are faring, but our early losses to Quad 1 opponents made UNF’s job a bit easier.
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They don't have to change anything. They'll still be able to measure each year how the committee places each team using the RPI and add that to the historical data pile they work with. As long as the RPI is being calculated they can still run the formula.
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Old 02-23-2019, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
They don't have to change anything. They'll still be able to measure each year how the committee places each team using the RPI and add that to the historical data pile they work with. As long as the RPI is being calculated they can still run the formula.
They probably do have to make some changes. Their stated purpose on their site is to predict who the committee will pick. If the committee is changing their formulas, then Dance Card will have to as well.

Or, they can stick to their formula and change their goal - it could become more of a "here's how it would have looked under the old system" for us to compare.
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Old 02-23-2019, 12:34 PM
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Remember DanceCard had something where they used the old RPI formula. The last couple of years DanceCard has proven to be unreliable because the selection committee's criteria has been changing.
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Old 02-23-2019, 12:37 PM
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Unless the purpose of switching to NET is solely to ensure fewer non-p5 teams get an invite (which could be the real driving factor ), I can’t believe they won’t consider the old system when determining bids for at least this year. Not doing that would be a horrible analytical approach - to not measure the new proposed standard against the former (current standard). This is similar to champion challenger and is a great way to see the effects of proposed changes.

I used to feel UD didn’t belong in the discussion but no longer feel that way when IU (and other schools with lots of warts - OSU for example) are still in the discussion or firmly in.

Keeping IU in the discussion because IF they win out and IF they win convincingly and IF .... all the while not doing the same thing for schools like Dayton shows clearly the biases of those doing the mocks which is really a reflection of the committee biases.

There is lots of work to be done yet but a very strong finish and a key win or 2 in the tourney should get UD an invite. It’s gonna be a fun ride if these guys can finish strong !!
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Old 02-23-2019, 12:48 PM
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I think what you're saying is that in the first few years they could be off using their standard formula IF the committee picks teams they wouldn't have based on the switch from RPI to NET (that happens regardless because they go against historical trends and Dance Card gets some wrong, but it could happen MORE).

Sure, that could happen, but over time that will correct itself as the formula takes in more data where the committee leans on the NET. They really don't have to change the formula or the use of the RPI, as they can still measure and do the formula using historical trends against the RPI.

I'm still probably not explaining this right, but someone smarter than me might.
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Old 02-23-2019, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
To even be in consideration for an at-large this late in his second season is quite a testament to AG and staff considering the roster they inherited last season. Savor the progress...
I’d say it’s more of a weak bubble. I thought we’d be an NIT team this year. Such a weak bubble moves some NIT teams up to ncaa.
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Old 02-23-2019, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
I’d say it’s more of a weak bubble. I thought we’d be an NIT team this year. Such a weak bubble moves some NIT teams up to ncaa.

People say that every year, but I do think the Bubble is probably weak this year (see Indiana). However, that’s really irrelevant because it’s all relative. You can only play to your competition. There will not be an asterisk next to a team that makes the Tournament this year indicating that “Well, the Bubble was weak that year.” If a Bubble team sneaks in and makes a run to the Final Four, for instance, there will be no asterisk.
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Old 02-23-2019, 01:32 PM
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I do not think the Dance Card is running this year, I checked recently, nada. Should have started weeks ago based upon past history.
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Old 02-23-2019, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
I think what you're saying is that in the first few years they could be off using their standard formula IF the committee picks teams they wouldn't have based on the switch from RPI to NET (that happens regardless because they go against historical trends and Dance Card gets some wrong, but it could happen MORE).

Sure, that could happen, but over time that will correct itself as the formula takes in more data where the committee leans on the NET. They really don't have to change the formula or the use of the RPI, as they can still measure and do the formula using historical trends against the RPI.

I'm still probably not explaining this right, but someone smarter than me might.
You are right but typically you don’t switch cold turkey unless you have some specific metrics you can validate against (i.e more P5 at large bids)

What you more typically want to do is evaluate how the changes will affect the entire population before cutting over to it - thus testing against a smaller challenger sample set - say 10% of the entire universe.

Since you can’t do that here, what makes sense to do is pick the at large teams with the new and old methods and them look only at teams that either are in one but. It the other or teams that had significant seeding changes. In an over simplified way, what you want to ensure is that teams affected by the switch are because of flaws in RPI not in NET. Without knowing the affects, it is much harder to measure that.

That will allow better analysis of the real impact NET has on what is trying to be done with other switch. I guarantee if the new method had significantly less P5 teams in the final field this year they wouldn’t just go with it and let it correct itself over time.
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Old 02-23-2019, 01:40 PM
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Yeah, nothing below.

Started doing updates last year on February 5 per the Twitter account.

The selection committee sort of has free reign this year to do whatever they want, and they can just blame it all on the NET.


https://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm


https://mobile.twitter.com/DanceCard3
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Old 02-23-2019, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Indiana drops out completely for now.

Indiana should not even be mentioned in the same press release as bracketology.


Forget the eye test, they don't pass the smell test...as in three day old road kill.
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Old 02-23-2019, 04:36 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I do not think the Dance Card is running this year, I checked recently, nada. Should have started weeks ago based upon past history.
When should it have started based on future history?
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Old 02-23-2019, 06:49 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
People say that every year, but I do think the Bubble is probably weak this year (see Indiana). However, that’s really irrelevant because it’s all relative. You can only play to your competition. There will not be an asterisk next to a team that makes the Tournament this year indicating that “Well, the Bubble was weak that year.” If a Bubble team sneaks in and makes a run to the Final Four, for instance, there will be no asterisk.
If teams like indiana and osu are bubble teams it’s a weak bubble year. I don’t care what they said about other years.
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Old 02-23-2019, 08:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post
When should it have started based on future history?
??? I don't know, let me go get Doc Brown and his DeLorean, and I'll let you know.
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Old 02-23-2019, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
If teams like indiana and osu are bubble teams it’s a weak bubble year. I don’t care what they said about other years.
It's completely laughable that Indiana is even in consideration for an NIT bid, let alone the NCAA. They are tied for 12th with only 14 teams in the Big10. They've lost 12 of their last 13...SERIOUSLY? ON THE BUBBLE? You have to actually BEAT teams, not just lose to a lot of good teams...unreal.
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Old 02-23-2019, 08:34 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan67 View Post
It's completely laughable that Indiana is even in consideration for an NIT bid, let alone the NCAA. They are tied for 12th with only 14 teams in the Big10. They've lost 12 of their last 13...SERIOUSLY? ON THE BUBBLE? You have to actually BEAT teams, not just lose to a lot of good teams...unreal.
Indiana is riding the Marquette, Louisville and Michigan State wins for all their worth
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Old 02-23-2019, 09:01 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
Indiana is riding the Marquette, Louisville and Michigan State wins for all their worth
It's hard to believe that a team that has lost 99 out of 100 has those 3 wins on the same year's resume. Dang. Feels like another lifetime. (I'm sure it feels that way to Archie!)
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Old 02-23-2019, 09:10 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
Indiana is riding the Marquette, Louisville and Michigan State wins for all their worth
This is why just looking at the number of quad 1 wins and ignoring the number of chances is total bs. If you have enough opportunities , you will play out your @ss a couple of times or catch someone else playing like cr@p on a night.
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Old 02-23-2019, 09:25 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
This is why just looking at the number of quad 1 wins and ignoring the number of chances is total bs. If you have enough opportunities , you will play out your @ss a couple of times or catch someone else playing like cr@p on a night.
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I think they did away with the last 10 games as a consideration for the committee which a is shame
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Old 02-23-2019, 09:29 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
This is why just looking at the number of quad 1 wins and ignoring the number of chances is total bs. If you have enough opportunities , you will play out your @ss a couple of times or catch someone else playing like cr@p on a night.
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Yep. A broken clock is still right twice a day.
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Old 02-24-2019, 04:35 PM
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Wink Their motivation

Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
I think they did away with the last 10 games as a consideration for the committee which a is shame
I believe you are correct. Unfortunately, this paved they way for the popular known excuse of "entire body of work". Which I would agree with, but not when it gets pulled out of the NCAA's arse just for justification of a particular schools bid, usually a 500 middle of the pack football conference school.
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Old 02-24-2019, 06:44 PM
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https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-to.../bracketology/

They give Indiana a 1% chance of making tournament and UD 31%.
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Old 02-24-2019, 10:26 PM
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Interestingly, the team sheets list Quad 1 and 2 teams and scores broken in halves. So, for Quad 1, on the top section that have H1-15, N1-25 and A1-40. Then on the bottom half they have H16-30, N26-50, and A41-75. Same for Quad 2. Quad 3 and 4 are not broken apart at all. I'm curious if somehow they will list top half or bottom half Quad 1/2 in some fashion to explain why a team is in or out. Otherwise, why break it out at all?
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Old 02-24-2019, 10:39 PM
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Figgie, I feel you are on the verge of answering your own question. Here is a clue...NCAA!
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Old 02-24-2019, 11:03 PM
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If nothing else, we are starting to get into the at-large conversation. Of course, anything less than winning out would pretty much kill that conversation.

https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/02/...on-the-bubble/
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Old 02-25-2019, 12:23 PM
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I honestly believe this team deserves to be in the conversation, and I honestly believe our resume is not good enough when all is said and done. (But if we actually win out and then lost in the conference finals, I think we're still in.)



And really, controlling your own destiny is all you can ask for. We can't blame the schedule or anything else, we can only look back and know that we didn't win enough tough games if we end up not getting in. Just holding on against Miss State at home likely does the trick.
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Old 02-25-2019, 12:46 PM
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I watch every Ohio State game and they are horrible. Take them outside of the BIG and nobody would give them a 2nd thought. And they're currently a 9-seed. If we played them tomorrow at UD, we win by 9+. At the Schott, I still think we'd win. The place is a morgue and we'd pack the place.
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Old 02-25-2019, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post


And really, controlling your own destiny is all you can ask for. We can't blame the schedule or anything else, we can only look back and know that we didn't win enough tough games if we end up not getting in. Just holding on against Miss State at home likely does the trick.
Goes to the moral victory dilemma I talked about. Although at the end of those games (i.e. Virginia) etc., we 'felt' some what positive and a 'good sign', in the end I think everyone knew that a win would have counted at the end of the season much more than the instant 'moral victory' did.
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Old 02-25-2019, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 View Post
Goes to the moral victory dilemma I talked about. Although at the end of those games (i.e. Virginia) etc., we 'felt' some what positive and a 'good sign', in the end I think everyone knew that a win would have counted at the end of the season much more than the instant 'moral victory' did.
I hate moral victories as much as the next guy but the new NET seems like it might reward you for close losses to good teams (which I hate), or at least it seems that way for the P5 schools.
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Old 02-25-2019, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I watch every Ohio State game and they are horrible. Take them outside of the BIG and nobody would give them a 2nd thought. And they're currently a 9-seed. If we played them tomorrow at UD, we win by 9+. At the Schott, I still think we'd win. The place is a morgue and we'd pack the place.

Which is exactly why, if somehow, we end up matching up in the NIT, that game will be played at St. John Arena. Jean Smith isn’t stupid, and would not let his new coach who he picked off from Butler, be embarrassed in front of 7000 opposing fans at home.
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Old 02-25-2019, 02:29 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I watch every Ohio State game and they are horrible. Take them outside of the BIG and nobody would give them a 2nd thought. And they're currently a 9-seed. If we played them tomorrow at UD, we win by 9+. At the Schott, I still think we'd win. The place is a morgue and we'd pack the place.
I feel the same regarding Butler. We beat them in a neutral court tourney. And they really are not that impressive to me at all, based on other games of theirs that I have watched...

Here is Butler:
http://www.seed-madness.com/TeamStats/QTSButler.htm

Here we are:
http://www.seed-madness.com/TeamStats/QTSDayton.htm

See the difference?

Quad 1: Butler 2-7, UD 2-5.
Quad 2: Butler 5-5, UD 0-3.

Combined Q1 and Q2:
Butler: 7-12, UD 2-8

Must be nice to have all those Q2 games to split and to be "on the bubble" worst case...
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Old 02-25-2019, 08:50 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I watch every Ohio State game and they are horrible. Take them outside of the BIG and nobody would give them a 2nd thought. And they're currently a 9-seed. If we played them tomorrow at UD, we win by 9+. At the Schott, I still think we'd win. The place is a morgue and we'd pack the place.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-to.../bracketology/

This site thinks that OSU has a 22% chance .... sounds about right. UD is over 30%
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