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Old 03-13-2023, 10:27 AM
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The Future

I'd love to discuss what is best from a leadership standpoint rationally and reasonably.

AG definitely has plenty to critique, criticize, commend etc. I typically think 6 years is fair and more than enough time to have an idea if the ship is heading in the right direction and has the right captain and make a change if needed.

I do think though that this 6 year period is unlike any other in my time of watching and to reject that reality, label it only as excuses etc. is not reasonable and rational.

Since AG took over, here are some drastic differences between his and AM's 6 years or really any other 6 year period.

1.) Covid Impacts and Covid Year
Challenges: Unbalanced Schedules, Empty arena, disappointment of previous year, no
Obi/Trey/Ryan (leaders)

2.) First ever 1 and done and 2 and done
Not including events like Dumb and Dumber where they were just done

3.) Super Conference Realignment - Revitalized BB only BE
4.) No Sit Transfers
Mid Majors typically saved 1-3 schollies for mid season transfers or red-shirt transfers
in general. I agree that it doesn't make much if any sense anymore in the new culture
but removing that from the plan isn't always that easy. It needs to chg and chg quickly
but adapting to all of this does take some time.

5.) NIL
6.) Tighter Intentionally P5 Biased Metrics (NET)
i.e. Teams going 3-12 Q1 rewarded while 1-1 or 1-2 is punished

7.) AG's personal Tragedy
8.) Unprecedented Injuries
9.) Others?

This has been a very short period of great transition. Incorporated in with these great change are 3 unprecedented uncontrollable events. Covid, Injuries, great personal tradgedy.

All of the BB changes can for sure become excuses for lack of success but they can't be labeled only as excuses because they clearly are obstacles to success that each program will have to learn to work within and around.

Not allowing for more time for a coach to adapt than prior coaches got to this IMO is unwise and could lead to a bad, knee jerk reaction.

The best example of how change impacts teams I can think of is the NFL. There was a planned and intentional reason the NFL is more than the Rams, Cowboys, Vikings, Steelers, Raiders, Dolphins like in the 70s.

Both FA and salary caps were deliberately put in to bring parity in place of dynasties. NE has been an exception to this in all salary cap sports for the most part apologies to maybe the red wings.

This is the opposite of what the NCAA is doing. Their selection metrics are built on subjective, non-result based pre rankings that make it almost impossible for a P5 team to not be a Q1 or Q2 game for all teams in their conference (OSU/NC) and often keep them on the bubble with dismal conference and overall records.

This is the intended consequences and is driven all by money. This doesn't make it impossible for UD to compete, just harder. Pointing out X or Zags to prove it's easy isn't logical as both were established mid majors before these changes and are also exceptions to the rule. There are 100+ more UDs or worse than X and Zags and a few others on the horizon like VCU, San Diego St and St Mary's.

Since AG hasn't had the desired success 5/6 years, he needs to be examined for his results, his awareness of the new environment, and his plans to move forward successfully in this new reality. All this needs to be examined and addressed to make sure he gets it and has substantive changes he plans to incorporate to meet and exceed his expected goals.

If he can't address this or worse yet acknowledge it, he should be gone immediately. If he is addressing it, and his plan looks solid, he should be given a reasonable but limited window to improve toward the stated goals with very specific metrics to meet.

AG has proven he can recruit, develop, win. Jalen, Obi, Trey, Ryan, Darron, and even DD.

He's also proven he can win and win big. He's had the most successful regular season ever and would have been a 1 seed in 2020. Discounting his success because of Obi ois so illogical and wrong. You can't blame him for Baker, Washington and also not give him credit for Obi and Jalen etc. He's the same guy that recruited 2 of the best ever and developed them and the team into winners.

Finally he's shown he's a great representative for the university and can bring in higher level recruits than the program has seen in 50 years. Given all the changes and
unfulfilled opportunity of 2020, I'd prefer a bit longer patience than maybe otherwise granted.

That's all my point of view is. I don't have my head in the sand about some of AG's shortcomings with in game coaching, roster make-up, flexibility etc. I just think he has shown he can win and recruit better than any coach in my time and deserves a longer leash to hopefully make 2020 not look like an outlier.

I end with a hypothetical. If 2020 had played and UD made the Final 4 or better, would your opinion on his current status change at all?

I know we could have lost to a 16 seed but the question is a simple IF - FF4 or better.

Any everyone lived happily ever after.

The End
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Old 03-13-2023, 10:53 AM
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I’m going to add a couple notes to the COVID comments above. Right after they cancelled the NCAAs, several noted that Dayton lost so much exposure (and money) we would have gotten during that tournament. Win It All or not, everyone was going to be talking about Dayton, Obi and Company and Grant. Someone recently posted Grant wasted that team in recruiting efforts. How quickly we forget the landscape was so different. Sure every Dayton fan knew how great it was. But did the guys in Junior High across the country know how great that year was at Dayton? Without the NCAAs I’d say “not so much”.

Second, during about a 2 year period, we could not host recruits on campus or send coach out to meet face to face, attend games, etc. Yes…every program was handicapped by the same. But since 2005, when I started following UD athletics, it was clear that one of Dayton’s major selling points was that it’s a big family feel on campus. It’s not like that everywhere. Not even close. It might be Dayton’s biggest selling point. And we lost that advantage for a couple years. It’s tough enough competing with the Bigs, but take away a major differential and it will impact results.
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Old 03-13-2023, 11:02 AM
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Every single team dealt with covid. Everyone keeps pointing to that as a reason but did it stop VCU? It didn't stop other teams. And why, with all of our resources, would it take Obi to capitalize on? If we are supposed to be the top team in the A10 (we aren't), and with the best resources, arena, fans, etc., why aren't we winning the battles in our own conference?
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Old 03-13-2023, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
I'd love to discuss what is best from a leadership standpoint rationally and reasonably.

AG definitely has plenty to critique, criticize, commend etc. I typically think 6 years is fair and more than enough time to have an idea if the ship is heading in the right direction and has the right captain and make a change if needed.

I do think though that this 6 year period is unlike any other in my time of watching and to reject that reality, label it only as excuses etc. is not reasonable and rational.

Since AG took over, here are some drastic differences between his and AM's 6 years or really any other 6 year period.

1.) Covid Impacts and Covid Year
Challenges: Unbalanced Schedules, Empty arena, disappointment of previous year, no
Obi/Trey/Ryan (leaders)

2.) First ever 1 and done and 2 and done
Not including events like Dumb and Dumber where they were just done

3.) Super Conference Realignment - Revitalized BB only BE
4.) No Sit Transfers
Mid Majors typically saved 1-3 schollies for mid season transfers or red-shirt transfers
in general. I agree that it doesn't make much if any sense anymore in the new culture
but removing that from the plan isn't always that easy. It needs to chg and chg quickly
but adapting to all of this does take some time.

5.) NIL
6.) Tighter Intentionally P5 Biased Metrics (NET)
i.e. Teams going 3-12 Q1 rewarded while 1-1 or 1-2 is punished

7.) AG's personal Tragedy
8.) Unprecedented Injuries
9.) Others?

This has been a very short period of great transition. Incorporated in with these great change are 3 unprecedented uncontrollable events. Covid, Injuries, great personal tradgedy.

All of the BB changes can for sure become excuses for lack of success but they can't be labeled only as excuses because they clearly are obstacles to success that each program will have to learn to work within and around.

Not allowing for more time for a coach to adapt than prior coaches got to this IMO is unwise and could lead to a bad, knee jerk reaction.

The best example of how change impacts teams I can think of is the NFL. There was a planned and intentional reason the NFL is more than the Rams, Cowboys, Vikings, Steelers, Raiders, Dolphins like in the 70s.

Both FA and salary caps were deliberately put in to bring parity in place of dynasties. NE has been an exception to this in all salary cap sports for the most part apologies to maybe the red wings.

This is the opposite of what the NCAA is doing. Their selection metrics are built on subjective, non-result based pre rankings that make it almost impossible for a P5 team to not be a Q1 or Q2 game for all teams in their conference (OSU/NC) and often keep them on the bubble with dismal conference and overall records.

This is the intended consequences and is driven all by money. This doesn't make it impossible for UD to compete, just harder. Pointing out X or Zags to prove it's easy isn't logical as both were established mid majors before these changes and are also exceptions to the rule. There are 100+ more UDs or worse than X and Zags and a few others on the horizon like VCU, San Diego St and St Mary's.

Since AG hasn't had the desired success 5/6 years, he needs to be examined for his results, his awareness of the new environment, and his plans to move forward successfully in this new reality. All this needs to be examined and addressed to make sure he gets it and has substantive changes he plans to incorporate to meet and exceed his expected goals.

If he can't address this or worse yet acknowledge it, he should be gone immediately. If he is addressing it, and his plan looks solid, he should be given a reasonable but limited window to improve toward the stated goals with very specific metrics to meet.

AG has proven he can recruit, develop, win. Jalen, Obi, Trey, Ryan, Darron, and even DD.

He's also proven he can win and win big. He's had the most successful regular season ever and would have been a 1 seed in 2020. Discounting his success because of Obi ois so illogical and wrong. You can't blame him for Baker, Washington and also not give him credit for Obi and Jalen etc. He's the same guy that recruited 2 of the best ever and developed them and the team into winners.

Finally he's shown he's a great representative for the university and can bring in higher level recruits than the program has seen in 50 years. Given all the changes and
unfulfilled opportunity of 2020, I'd prefer a bit longer patience than maybe otherwise granted.

That's all my point of view is. I don't have my head in the sand about some of AG's shortcomings with in game coaching, roster make-up, flexibility etc. I just think he has shown he can win and recruit better than any coach in my time and deserves a longer leash to hopefully make 2020 not look like an outlier.

I end with a hypothetical. If 2020 had played and UD made the Final 4 or better, would your opinion on his current status change at all?

I know we could have lost to a 16 seed but the question is a simple IF - FF4 or better.

Any everyone lived happily ever after.

The End
Marysville: I accept all of your wise premises. However, there is no reason Coach Grant left that offense deteriorate game after game. There is no reason he had to slow down the offense and make every offensive call, cluttering the players' minds and resulting in lost shot-clock time. Yesterday was the culmination of that. I don't understand why he went into the season with one legitimate point guard. I do not understand why he did not fill that slot with a quicker guard who could defend dribble penetration. I do not understand how Zimi's game eroded so much after his promising freshman year.

I recommended to Neil Sullivan he hire Coach Grant and I have continued to support him. My problem is this - I don't see much improvement next year...at all. The future is not bright unless both Holmes and Camara return, we get two new quality guards, and he gives up that horrendous micro-managing of the offense. And what are the chances of that happening? Zero.
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Old 03-13-2023, 11:23 AM
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Every team has the portal, not just UD
Every team has NIL, not just UD
Every team has injuries, not just UD
Every team dealt with COVID, not just UD

I hear what you are saying, there have been a lot of changes recently.

But I am not going to give anyone a pass on them, including UD and Grant and Neil, as it was across the college basketball landscape.

What happened to Grant personally is truly a tragedy. I cannot imagine what that must be like for him and his family. He probably should have taken a year off - or stepped away completely - if he needed to and nobody would have questioned him at all.
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Old 03-13-2023, 11:24 AM
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I agree that every team dealt with COVID. I understand we took an unfortunately hard hit through it, but we still had a ton of exposure and all. Dicky V on campus, Obi in dunk contests, our name all over every basketball discussion on every network in the country, etc.

There lies the problem. We had all the opportunities that year presented, and here we are, at the end of the point where short-sighted young athletes are going to care. We failed to capitalize on it by not winning an A10 title since then, not making the NCAA since then, and frankly, being quite underwhelming this season. Some of you want to hold onto that season like it will matter forever. Maybe it will for you, but it will not for anyone but us fans. Period. And, it was an anomaly in AG's career.

Injuries. Yeah, that happened, too. Bad luck? You tell me. All teams deal with injuries, too. We ended last season with Mali hurt, we knew from early in the season and what followed after his re-injury that we didn't have a good backup. We left a scholarship unfilled, and some argued "no decent player would join the team to play second fiddle." BS. Fill the spot! A competitor that believes in themselves will take a chance at proving they are better and earning their minutes. Mali never proved to be THAT good, to where he's a sure lock. I've struggled with this all season, and so has the team.

Personal tragedy. This is the most reasonable explanation for the season to me. That said, is it really? A coaching staff is a team, just like the players are a team. It's not just a head coach. Did AG hire a staff that cannot manage a team without him? Do you really think they weren't all in constant contact about it all, and backing him up? I feel absolutely horrible for AG and the whole family, but I don't think it completely removes all responsibility.

Player development? Some players have heart and develop themselves. Coaching is a part, but I was a pretty dang good athlete. I was always developing, with or without my coaches. What about others like Amzil, RJ, Brea, Elvis. Do you honestly see development in them? The really well-developed players were largely from the dream team, and I think it was pretty clear that starting five had a relationship and ability to work together to perform miracles. Maybe that had as much or more of an impact on their development than anything AG or any coach in the country could have? I see as many flops as success stories. Just saying.

I'm not even going to mention the horrible in-game coaching, even to basics like when to foul, and when to use timeouts.

I have no skin in the game at all, but I said after last season this was the make or break for me. We dance, or I'm ready for a change. This season was a major under-performance, and with that, I am ready for a change. If there's not a significant one, there are ABSOLUTELY no excuses after next season. NONE!
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Old 03-13-2023, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan View Post
Every single team dealt with covid. Everyone keeps pointing to that as a reason but did it stop VCU? It didn't stop other teams. And why, with all of our resources, would it take Obi to capitalize on? If we are supposed to be the top team in the A10 (we aren't), and with the best resources, arena, fans, etc., why aren't we winning the battles in our own conference?
This is a valid question. I will add that we saw similar ďissuesĒ in volleyball this year. This is a program that wins more conference championships than any other on campus. Not this year. Key players out all season long. I think we had a different rotation every week for about 6 weeks. Both injuries and illnesses.

I also believe the COVID no campus visits has hurt that program. We have not landed a Top 100 recruit in recent years. Horsmon has always land one about every 2-3 years. Not every year, but until COVID, we always had 1-2 on the roster most years.

I also hope someone is doing a deep dive into our conditioning programs. This seems to be an issue across most teams at Dayton. Has there been a change in this area thatís contributing to the large number of injuries? Maybe not, but a deep dive should be ordered to make sure. I remember ďNew MathĒ in grade school. It didnít last long because it was crap. Same with New Coke. Lol. Things look good on paper and someone does an excellent job selling it. But it doesnít always work in real life. So why so many injuries at UD in recent years? And what is administration doing to find answers? Maybe itís just organic. But we should be looking into it to make sure itís not something else.
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Old 03-13-2023, 11:41 AM
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The landscape of the sport has changed very quickly. For me the big question about Grant is, can he adjust to it. For example, leaving a scholly open turned out to be a bad decision. That roster strategy was common until the transfer rules changed. Now it seems smarter to go get somebody and fill out the roster. Other things that all coaches have to look at is who do you try to get? Do you still get high school players and try to develop them, or do you focus on transfers? We need a coach that can adapt to a changing environment.
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Old 03-13-2023, 11:45 AM
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This was the 3rd time we played VCU this year. In two of them (today and at home) they came all the way back and beat us when we had the game in hand.
The other time (at VCU) they came back and we barely won at the end.

We had 0 (ZERO!!) FGs for the last ten minutes.
Grant called one TO during that time, close to the 5 min mark.

As far as blown leads go, add today to the five that we have lost where we led by at least 10 pts

We played an absolutely meaningless game vs SLU at home and for whatever reason Grant kept starters in pretty much the whole game - even at the end - and Mike and Elvis both got hurt. Injuries happen, **** happens, I get it. No reason why Richard/ Zimi/ Uhl/ literallu anyone else could have got minutes in that game. Could not have hurt. And those that think it is ridiculous to say that are probably the same that are mad that they could not see them in a Holmes/Camara- less NIT.

We had TEN players on scholarship
Camara, Holmes, Brea, Smith, Amaefule, Amzil, Blakney, Mike, Elvis, Zimi

Two are misses (Richard and Zimi) - that is on Grant
Blakney was a DNP - CD and looked out of the game today
Elvis was out (hurt during the meaningless SLU game)
That leaves us with 6 players ready to go today.
That falls squarely on Grant.

VCU had 8 strong and won across the board in the second half... just like the other two times we played them this year.
2nd half: Outscored 38-20
UD had one steal ALL GAME – no bench help – totally gassed out.
Think we could have used that extra scholarship that went unfiled? Or maybe had one of the transfers (that we did not ever get a concrete reason on why they transferred) hang around?

Camara and Holmes are two of the best players UD has had in the past 20 years - and they played at the same time - and neither will play in an NCAA tournament game.

When we went up 11, Grant slowed everything down.
When VCU went up 5, they sped up the game.

If Obi Toppin does not all of a sudden become Obi Toppin - and I think we can all agree that nobody saw that coming as he was hardly the 4 star recruit...(but it was awesome) - where does that leave Grant?

Grant HAD TO KNOW that this was a make or break year for him. Like you are behind in your sales quota (again) and need to close this big deal to save your job. And you have it in the bag. And blow it again. You can blame your back office all you want, but you have to lead the team and close the deal. Jobs are depending on it. YOUR job is depending on it.

Finally, GREAT decision to not go to the NIT this year. The only thing the NIT is good for is for coaches to watch and scout potential targets for the transfer period, which starts today I believe...

So even though I will not be watching the NIT, someone at UD better be. Because the cupboard is bare. But it did not need to be this way.
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Old 03-13-2023, 12:12 PM
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Some people keep saying Covid hurt us because of the fact that there were no campus visits that year, yet we had our highest rated recruiting class ever on paper that year, so is this a valid argument?
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Old 03-13-2023, 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
Some people keep saying Covid hurt us because of the fact that there were no campus visits that year, yet we had our highest rated recruiting class ever on paper that year, so is this a valid argument?
Hmmm, let's see, Valid Argument vs Lame Excuse

LAME EXCUSE
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Old 03-13-2023, 12:52 PM
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I hope everyone has a wonderful spring and summer. There is nothing to be said on this topic that hasn't been screamed 1,000 times already by proponents of both positions. Just let me know when the first game is.
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Old 03-13-2023, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by pmcmullen View Post
I agree that every team dealt with COVID. I understand we took an unfortunately hard hit through it, but we still had a ton of exposure and all. Dicky V on campus, Obi in dunk contests, our name all over every basketball discussion on every network in the country, etc.

There lies the problem. We had all the opportunities that year presented, and here we are, at the end of the point where short-sighted young athletes are going to care. We failed to capitalize on it by not winning an A10 title since then, not making the NCAA since then, and frankly, being quite underwhelming this season. Some of you want to hold onto that season like it will matter forever. Maybe it will for you, but it will not for anyone but us fans. Period. And, it was an anomaly in AG's career.

Injuries. Yeah, that happened, too. Bad luck? You tell me. All teams deal with injuries, too. We ended last season with Mali hurt, we knew from early in the season and what followed after his re-injury that we didn't have a good backup. We left a scholarship unfilled, and some argued "no decent player would join the team to play second fiddle." BS. Fill the spot! A competitor that believes in themselves will take a chance at proving they are better and earning their minutes. Mali never proved to be THAT good, to where he's a sure lock. I've struggled with this all season, and so has the team.

Personal tragedy. This is the most reasonable explanation for the season to me. That said, is it really? A coaching staff is a team, just like the players are a team. It's not just a head coach. Did AG hire a staff that cannot manage a team without him? Do you really think they weren't all in constant contact about it all, and backing him up? I feel absolutely horrible for AG and the whole family, but I don't think it completely removes all responsibility.

Player development? Some players have heart and develop themselves. Coaching is a part, but I was a pretty dang good athlete. I was always developing, with or without my coaches. What about others like Amzil, RJ, Brea, Elvis. Do you honestly see development in them? The really well-developed players were largely from the dream team, and I think it was pretty clear that starting five had a relationship and ability to work together to perform miracles. Maybe that had as much or more of an impact on their development than anything AG or any coach in the country could have? I see as many flops as success stories. Just saying.

I'm not even going to mention the horrible in-game coaching, even to basics like when to foul, and when to use timeouts.

I have no skin in the game at all, but I said after last season this was the make or break for me. We dance, or I'm ready for a change. This season was a major under-performance, and with that, I am ready for a change. If there's not a significant one, there are ABSOLUTELY no excuses after next season. NONE!
Keith Urgo stated after we beat Fordham, that Will Richardson would be back in the gym the day after the loss working on his game. Will any of our players be back in the gym today working on theirs? The only excused guys would be those injured or leaving. Are the rest in the gym or hanging their heads on the loss?
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Old 03-13-2023, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan View Post
Keith Urgo stated after we beat Fordham, that Will Richardson would be back in the gym the day after the loss working on his game. Will any of our players be back in the gym today working on theirs? The only excused guys would be those injured or leaving. Are the rest in the gym or hanging their heads on the loss?
I know, it's crazy, Richardson is already back in the gym, but no, not us, we were handed an invite on a sliver platter to likely play on national TV against a good opponent, and we said no.
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Old 03-13-2023, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA View Post
Iím going to add a couple notes to the COVID comments above. Right after they cancelled the NCAAs, several noted that Dayton lost so much exposure (and money) we would have gotten during that tournament. Win It All or not, everyone was going to be talking about Dayton, Obi and Company and Grant. Someone recently posted Grant wasted that team in recruiting efforts. How quickly we forget the landscape was so different. Sure every Dayton fan knew how great it was. But did the guys in Junior High across the country know how great that year was at Dayton? Without the NCAAs Iíd say ďnot so muchĒ.

Second, during about a 2 year period, we could not host recruits on campus or send coach out to meet face to face, attend games, etc. YesÖevery program was handicapped by the same. But since 2005, when I started following UD athletics, it was clear that one of Daytonís major selling points was that itís a big family feel on campus. Itís not like that everywhere. Not even close. It might be Daytonís biggest selling point. And we lost that advantage for a couple years. Itís tough enough competing with the Bigs, but take away a major differential and it will impact results.
As others have said, every team had to deal with covid. The 19-20 team was definitely the most impacted in the country by covid. I would say though, the 20-21 team was probably one of the least affected by covid. Ohio was one of the first states to allow teams to start having team workouts as the lockdowns ended. Also, UD was one of the only teams in the country to not have a covid pause because of issues within its team. So not only did we get back to practice sooner than most teams, we never stopped playing once the season started.

As far as the no campus visits, again, that was an entire NCAA thing. So we were playing by the same rules as everyone else.
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Old 03-13-2023, 01:25 PM
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My biggest question: What does Grant want? Does he want to continue on the recruiting road? Does he want to continue the long hours of breaking down tape? Does he have his heart and soul into and behind this team? I believe these will be tough questions for him to answer, not to us or Neil, but to himself, his family, and his team. This could go a couple ways. He could decide, No, he no longer has that desire. He could say, yea, I'm good, but not come back with that fire. Or he could say. HELL YES! I've got this, and come back with a renewed energy and attitude, with a chip on his shoulder bigger than an EveryReady battery, "Go Ahead, Knock it off."

I hope its the latter, I'm OK but disappointed with the first, and of course the middle option would necessarily lead to his firing.
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  #17  
Old 03-13-2023, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by TommyGola View Post
Marysville: I accept all of your wise premises. However, there is no reason Coach Grant left that offense deteriorate game after game. There is no reason he had to slow down the offense and make every offensive call, cluttering the players' minds and resulting in lost shot-clock time. Yesterday was the culmination of that. I don't understand why he went into the season with one legitimate point guard. I do not understand why he did not fill that slot with a quicker guard who could defend dribble penetration. I do not understand how Zimi's game eroded so much after his promising freshman year.

I recommended to Neil Sullivan he hire Coach Grant and I have continued to support him. My problem is this - I don't see much improvement next year...at all. The future is not bright unless both Holmes and Camara return, we get two new quality guards, and he gives up that horrendous micro-managing of the offense. And what are the chances of that happening? Zero.
I get all this and agree that there are lots of critiques and criticisms that can be made about all of AG's responsibilities. It's all fair game, reasonable and rational. Thanks for a most reasonable and valid response.

Making arguments like 'every team has to deal with it' are weak and illogical. They are only valid if all teams are affected equally by all challenges and they just aren't. Some of the things listed many teams have never been challenged with.

Cherry picking a single team and making it 'that easy' because they've done it is way too simplistic. For every VCU there are 20 that are UD not VCU. Shoot, quite a few of the blue bloods have struggled during this period as well. Some is due to coaching chgs but many aren't. UNC, UL, OSU ... so pretending in a trite response that it's only UD being negatively affected by the challenges mentioned is misleading at best.

VCU has had better NCAA success over the past 15 years so we were playing catchup prior to AG. It was just a few weeks ago after losses to Fordham and UD that their msg board sounded an awful lot like ours yet people here wanna make them the poster child of success.

Again, none of this is an excuse for continued disappointment but the team has finished second in conference 2 years in a row and a half of BB away from a bid 2 years in a row so it isn't in the crapper either which the anti-AG from day 1 people argue.

Take AM out of the picture and the state of the program is still much better under AG with reason for hope than it has been in the previous 20 years.

2 years ago, AG had a strategy with a core of young guys, much like AM, 2 years removed from the best season ever. It looked good on paper but hasn't materialized.

On a side note, when Camara fouled out, he looked to me like it wasn't just because of likely no NCAA this year but it was no NCAA for his career. I hope I am wrong about that.
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Old 03-13-2023, 01:58 PM
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As someone stated before, UD was affected a lot less by Covid than most teams. Youíd hope that a team with several seniors who were major contributors on the 29-2 team would be able to figure it out
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Old 03-14-2023, 07:29 PM
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Bottom 200 KenPom losses in their Dayton coaching careers:

Gregory: 3 (8 years)
Miller: 3 (6 years)
Grant: 12 (5.5 years)
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Old 03-14-2023, 09:02 PM
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My Ideal Future:
Grant, Holmes, and Camara all come back & we pick up two shooters and a PG through the transfer portal.

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  #21  
Old 03-14-2023, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
My Ideal Future:
Grant, Holmes, and Camara all come back & we pick up two shooters and a PG through the transfer portal.

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THIS. Well said. VCU is the team we aspire to? LMAO. Get some shooters who arenít injury prone. Thatíd be a really good start.
We should have won the VCU game by 10.
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Old 03-14-2023, 10:28 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Bottom 200 KenPom losses in their Dayton coaching careers:

Gregory: 3 (8 years)
Miller: 3 (6 years)
Grant: 12 (5.5 years)
So you are saying we never should have fired BG?

Bottom 200 would be like 130-330 so I assume you meant either 200+ or 300+?

If itís 200+ Iíd have a hard time believing BG only had 3 in his 8 years. That was his biggest problem. He could beat the big boys and win at home but went 2-6 on the road and lost to terrible teams.

I believe it about AM.
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Old 03-14-2023, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
So you are saying we never should have fired BG?

Bottom 200 would be like 130-330 so I assume you meant either 200+ or 300+?

If itís 200+ Iíd have a hard time believing BG only had 3 in his 8 years. That was his biggest problem. He could beat the big boys and win at home but went 2-6 on the road and lost to terrible teams.

I believe it about AM.
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That's how bad the A10 has gotten since BG was here
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Old 03-14-2023, 10:40 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
That's how bad the A10 has gotten since BG was here
Yeah I guess thatís true
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Old 03-15-2023, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
My Ideal Future:
Grant, Holmes, and Camara all come back & we pick up two shooters and a PG through the transfer portal.

Edit: I certainly hope Mike comes back!

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Old 03-15-2023, 05:14 PM
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[QUOTE=Glen Clark;727546]My Ideal Future:
Grant, Holmes, and Camara all come back & we pick up two shooters and a PG through the transfer portal.


I agree with this, but I do want to point out one thing.....we had a shooter going into the A10 Tourney, but he suddenly couldn't shoot....Koby Brea. Going into the tourney, he was 49-117 from 3, that is 41.88%. During the tourney, he went an abysmal 1-18, which is 5.56%. If during the A10 Tourney he shoots his normal 41.88%, that would have been 7.54 makes on his 18 attempts, or basically 6.5 more that he did make. Even rounding that down to 6 more makes, if even 3 of those go in against VCU, that could have changed the entire complexion of the game. So it isn't just that we need shooters.....we need shooters that can still shoot straight in the postseason. Maybe next year that will be Brea. In my seating section, we used to refer to Devin Oliver as "So Close Devin", because so many 3s were close but no good. Suddenly his senior year a higher % started going in. Maybe next year Brea can keep his 42% regular season but extend that into the postseason....seems more likely than the type of jump Oliver suddenly made over a full season (from 26.2% from 3 as a Jr to 39.6% as a Senior, crazy jump). I'm thinking Brea just had a weird cold streak at exactly the worst time. Basically, my point is don't write Brea off yet.
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Old 03-15-2023, 05:26 PM
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[QUOTE=CraSch;727656]
Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
My Ideal Future:
Grant, Holmes, and Camara all come back & we pick up two shooters and a PG through the transfer portal.


I agree with this, but I do want to point out one thing.....we had a shooter going into the A10 Tourney, but he suddenly couldn't shoot....Koby Brea. Going into the tourney, he was 49-117 from 3, that is 41.88%. During the tourney, he went an abysmal 1-18, which is 5.56%. If during the A10 Tourney he shoots his normal 41.88%, that would have been 7.54 makes on his 18 attempts, or basically 6.5 more that he did make. Even rounding that down to 6 more makes, if even 3 of those go in against VCU, that could have changed the entire complexion of the game. So it isn't just that we need shooters.....we need shooters that can still shoot straight in the postseason. Maybe next year that will be Brea. In my seating section, we used to refer to Devin Oliver as "So Close Devin", because so many 3s were close but no good. Suddenly his senior year a higher % started going in. Maybe next year Brea can keep his 42% regular season but extend that into the postseason....seems more likely than the type of jump Oliver suddenly made over a full season (from 26.2% from 3 as a Jr to 39.6% as a Senior, crazy jump). I'm thinking Brea just had a weird cold streak at exactly the worst time. Basically, my point is don't write Brea off yet.
SMH, LMAO. "... his normal 41.88"

No that's not his normal.

11 times Brea shot 40 percent or over.
16 times Brea shot 33 percent or under.
0 times did Brea shoot between 33 and 40 percent (saying this so you know I didn't leave anything out.
12 times Brea shot 28.6 percent or lower.

So maybe 41.88 is some kind of average, but it certainly isn't "normal" for any individual game. And since the only game it might have made a difference in was the one we lost, it's not like something odd happened with Brea's shooting that cost us the game.

He's not good. He shouldn't even be getting the minutes he's gotten on an Atlantic 10 team. He's fool's gold and fool's gold always cost you your ass at the worst times.
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Old 03-15-2023, 05:53 PM
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Ideally we have more than 1 shooter on the team. Thatís where my roster construction criticism comes in. Daron Holmes committed October 2020, and should have been surrounded by shooters by this season. Not even close
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Old 03-16-2023, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted by CraSch View Post
I agree with this, but I do want to point out one thing.....we had a shooter going into the A10 Tourney, but he suddenly couldn't shoot....Koby Brea.
Brea? Really? He always was, is, and best I can tell always will be a very streaky player. You cannot build a team around him or count on him in a game plan beyond a "set him up for a couple shots and see if he's Jekyll or Hyde today" scenario. He is a non-entity at least as often as he's good, if not more. At other times he's just outright bad, and that has an appearance of being when it matters.

As far as I'm concerned, Brea and RJ had more of a chance to shine this season with our back court injuries as anyone on the team. And you know what? They absolutely didn't. I've spent the last two seasons looking at the 3-spot thinking how much of an opportunity we have to actually do something with it. It's just not good.
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Old 03-17-2023, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
I'd love to discuss what is best from a leadership standpoint rationally and reasonably.

AG definitely has plenty to critique, criticize, commend etc. I typically think 6 years is fair and more than enough time to have an idea if the ship is heading in the right direction and has the right captain and make a change if needed.

I do think though that this 6 year period is unlike any other in my time of watching and to reject that reality, label it only as excuses etc. is not reasonable and rational.

Since AG took over, here are some drastic differences between his and AM's 6 years or really any other 6 year period.

1.) Covid Impacts and Covid Year
Challenges: Unbalanced Schedules, Empty arena, disappointment of previous year, no
Obi/Trey/Ryan (leaders)

2.) First ever 1 and done and 2 and done
Not including events like Dumb and Dumber where they were just done

3.) Super Conference Realignment - Revitalized BB only BE
4.) No Sit Transfers
Mid Majors typically saved 1-3 schollies for mid season transfers or red-shirt transfers
in general. I agree that it doesn't make much if any sense anymore in the new culture
but removing that from the plan isn't always that easy. It needs to chg and chg quickly
but adapting to all of this does take some time.

5.) NIL
6.) Tighter Intentionally P5 Biased Metrics (NET)
i.e. Teams going 3-12 Q1 rewarded while 1-1 or 1-2 is punished

7.) AG's personal Tragedy
8.) Unprecedented Injuries
9.) Others?

This has been a very short period of great transition. Incorporated in with these great change are 3 unprecedented uncontrollable events. Covid, Injuries, great personal tradgedy.

All of the BB changes can for sure become excuses for lack of success but they can't be labeled only as excuses because they clearly are obstacles to success that each program will have to learn to work within and around.

Not allowing for more time for a coach to adapt than prior coaches got to this IMO is unwise and could lead to a bad, knee jerk reaction.

The best example of how change impacts teams I can think of is the NFL. There was a planned and intentional reason the NFL is more than the Rams, Cowboys, Vikings, Steelers, Raiders, Dolphins like in the 70s.

Both FA and salary caps were deliberately put in to bring parity in place of dynasties. NE has been an exception to this in all salary cap sports for the most part apologies to maybe the red wings.

This is the opposite of what the NCAA is doing. Their selection metrics are built on subjective, non-result based pre rankings that make it almost impossible for a P5 team to not be a Q1 or Q2 game for all teams in their conference (OSU/NC) and often keep them on the bubble with dismal conference and overall records.

This is the intended consequences and is driven all by money. This doesn't make it impossible for UD to compete, just harder. Pointing out X or Zags to prove it's easy isn't logical as both were established mid majors before these changes and are also exceptions to the rule. There are 100+ more UDs or worse than X and Zags and a few others on the horizon like VCU, San Diego St and St Mary's.

Since AG hasn't had the desired success 5/6 years, he needs to be examined for his results, his awareness of the new environment, and his plans to move forward successfully in this new reality. All this needs to be examined and addressed to make sure he gets it and has substantive changes he plans to incorporate to meet and exceed his expected goals.

If he can't address this or worse yet acknowledge it, he should be gone immediately. If he is addressing it, and his plan looks solid, he should be given a reasonable but limited window to improve toward the stated goals with very specific metrics to meet.

AG has proven he can recruit, develop, win. Jalen, Obi, Trey, Ryan, Darron, and even DD.

He's also proven he can win and win big. He's had the most successful regular season ever and would have been a 1 seed in 2020. Discounting his success because of Obi ois so illogical and wrong. You can't blame him for Baker, Washington and also not give him credit for Obi and Jalen etc. He's the same guy that recruited 2 of the best ever and developed them and the team into winners.

Finally he's shown he's a great representative for the university and can bring in higher level recruits than the program has seen in 50 years. Given all the changes and
unfulfilled opportunity of 2020, I'd prefer a bit longer patience than maybe otherwise granted.

That's all my point of view is. I don't have my head in the sand about some of AG's shortcomings with in game coaching, roster make-up, flexibility etc. I just think he has shown he can win and recruit better than any coach in my time and deserves a longer leash to hopefully make 2020 not look like an outlier.

I end with a hypothetical. If 2020 had played and UD made the Final 4 or better, would your opinion on his current status change at all?

I know we could have lost to a 16 seed but the question is a simple IF - FF4 or better.

Any everyone lived happily ever after.

The End
This is 5% about the future (the title) and 95% apology.

Pleasantville.
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Old 03-17-2023, 12:57 PM
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[QUOTE=Smitty10;727658]
Originally Posted by CraSch View Post

SMH, LMAO. "... his normal 41.88"

No that's not his normal.

11 times Brea shot 40 percent or over.
16 times Brea shot 33 percent or under.
0 times did Brea shoot between 33 and 40 percent (saying this so you know I didn't leave anything out.
12 times Brea shot 28.6 percent or lower.

So maybe 41.88 is some kind of average, but it certainly isn't "normal" for any individual game. And since the only game it might have made a difference in was the one we lost, it's not like something odd happened with Brea's shooting that cost us the game.

He's not good. He shouldn't even be getting the minutes he's gotten on an Atlantic 10 team. He's fool's gold and fool's gold always cost you your ass at the worst times.
So what is your grade for MSUís Joey Hauser who shot almost 46% from 3 for the season?

31 Games

6 games near his average
14 games 33% or below
11 games above his average 60%+
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Old 03-17-2023, 01:35 PM
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[QUOTE=Marysville Flyer;727859]
Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post

So what is your grade for MSUís Joey Hauser who shot almost 46% from 3 for the season?

31 Games

6 games near his average
14 games 33% or below
11 games above his average 60%+
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When Brea has as many FGs, Rebounds, FTs and other things that doesn't just make him a 3 point shooter, get back to me.

Brea brings nothing else to the table so when he's bricking 3s, he's a total negative to the lineup.

Hauser 2.5 FTA per game. Brea, 1 FT attempt every 4 games(though again, he only shot a FT in 3 games this season out of 28.
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  #33  
Old 03-17-2023, 01:43 PM
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[QUOTE=Smitty10;727866]
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post

When Brea has as many FGs, Rebounds, FTs and other things that doesn't just make him a 3 point shooter, get back to me.

Brea brings nothing else to the table so when he's bricking 3s, he's a total negative to the lineup.

Hauser 2.5 FTA per game. Brea, 1 FT attempt every 4 games(though again, he only shot a FT in 3 games this season out of 28.
I donít disagree at all that thereís a lot more to it than 3 pt percentage. I just disagree with your classification of Brea as a shooter based on over under stats you supplied. Hauserís look quite similar and heís probably the best 3 pt shooter in college.

I do think Brea shoulders more blame for his limitations because we donít have a PG or wing that can penetrate and dish or consistently shoot from the outside either. Brea could be a valuable asset for the team if we had both of those.
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Old 03-17-2023, 01:43 PM
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Brea was 24/80 from 3 away from UD Arena. He was 8/37 from 3 in our losses away from the Arena. He is not a reliable shooter away from UD. You can't rely on a guy that only hits shots consistently at home.

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Old 03-17-2023, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Brea was 24/80 from 3 away from UD Arena. He was 8/37 from 3 away from UD in our losses away from the Arena. He is not a reliable shooter away from UD. You can't rely on a guy that only hits shots consistently at home.
Agreed. Not sure if thatís fixable going forward. His stroke is so pure. Streaky bothers me a lot less if itís present on the road too. One of my favorites was Sedric Toney who as streaky as they come and typically in the second half only.
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Old 03-17-2023, 02:06 PM
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[QUOTE=Marysville Flyer;727868]
Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post

I don’t disagree at all that there’s a lot more to it than 3 pt percentage. I just disagree with your classification of Brea as a shooter based on over under stats you supplied. Hauser’s look quite similar and he’s probably the best 3 pt shooter in college.

I do think Brea shoulders more blame for his limitations because we don’t have a PG or wing that can penetrate and dish or consistently shoot from the outside either. Brea could be a valuable asset for the team if we had both of those.
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That's all I'm saying. Maybe his 3 point stats mirror others that are considered good 3 point shooters. But his lack of anything else, including defense, makes him a hell of a lot closer to Luke Fabrizius than Jordan Sibert.

And maybe he should be used like Fabrizius as a gunslinger sent in at times you want to change it up and knock down a few 3s. However, to be honest, I just don't know if Brea has enough intestinal fortitude to be relegated as someone to come in cold off the bench for a few minutes and nail them like Fabrizius That's why I don't think he belongs in the A10.

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Old 03-18-2023, 10:30 AM
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There's a few statisticians out here that can figure out Brea's statistical deviation. The issue is all about how consistent he (or any player) is to his average. Closer the better.

Wide variation = frustration.
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Old 03-18-2023, 11:00 AM
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I wonder how much injuries effected his shooting
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Old 03-18-2023, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
There's a few statisticians out here that can figure out Brea's statistical deviation. The issue is all about how consistent he (or any player) is to his average. Closer the better.

Wide variation = frustration.
Oh, I've totally thought about doing that, and I've done 1 query regarding home/away percentages, but truly there is no reason to do so when after the data comes back, the goal posts change. I might be able to "read" the statistics, but apparently I'm not able to "interpret" the statistics.

Also from a standard deviation thing, how do you actually quantify how you do that. Is 0/1 considered the same as 0/5? Or 2/2 the same as 6/7?

--Figgie
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Old 03-18-2023, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
Oh, I've totally thought about doing that, and I've done 1 query regarding home/away percentages, but truly there is no reason to do so when after the data comes back, the goal posts change. I might be able to "read" the statistics, but apparently I'm not able to "interpret" the statistics.

Also from a standard deviation thing, how do you actually quantify how you do that. Is 0/1 considered the same as 0/5? Or 2/2 the same as 6/7?

--Figgie
Honestly, I have no idea how to answer your question. I was thinking the deviation of percentages from game to game compared to the season average. So if his season was 40%, what deviation would the individual efforts result in? I have no idea what it would produce, but was curious that if two deviations was enough to swing his % from game to game, from "far below" to "far above", which may be as much (as an example) 10%. Anyway, the idea was to see if the perception of his consistency was normal or not.
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