Parish Poll Attacks

ruechalgrin · #1 12-21-2015, 02:19 AM

I love Gary Parish's poll attacks and generally think he is spot-on in his rankings, but honestly do not know how his latest 25 (and one) should not be attacked itself.

He has Gonzaga, UCLA, Uconn, and Baylor all ahead of Dayton, but this defies the logic he uses to attack the AP and Coaches' Poll. Parish often refers to kenpom as his measuring stick for wins.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...top-25-and-one

Let's use his ranking of UCLA over Dayton as an example of his faulty logic right now.

Dayton is 8-2 overall and 5-2 versus top 100 kenpom and 2-1 versus top 25 winning 1 on the road and 1 at a neutral venue.

UCLA 8-4 overall and 3-4 versus top 100 kenpom (counting Wake Forest who is 102) and 1-2 top 25 winning 1 on the road and 1 at a neutral site.

So Dayton has a better overall record (8-2 versus 8-4); better top 100 record (5-2 versus 3-4); better top 25 record (2-1 versus 1-2); Dayton won its best two on the road and on a neutral court which is tougher than UCLA's best two on the road and at home; Dayton's best win at #17 Vandy is more impressive than UCLA's #12 as UCLA's win was at home; Dayton's two best wins are at an average of 17.5 (Vandy 17 and Iowa 18) versus UCLA's average of 21 (#12 Kentucky and #30 Gonzaga).

Dayton's 3rd best win is versus #54 Monmouth on a neutral court whereas UCLA's 3rd best win is versus #84 UNLV on a neutral court. BTW, UCLA lost to Monmouth at home. Dayton's 4th and 5th best wins are versus #72 William and Mary and #85 Alabama. UCLA's 4th and 5th best wins are versus #106 Pepperdine#128 Cal Poly. Again, Dayton's 3rd/4th/5th best wins better than UCLA's 3rd/4th/5th best wins.

It must be the losses then. UCLA must have lost all 4 to top 10 whereas Dayton has had all bad losses. Dayton lost to #7 Xaiver on a neutral court whereas UCLA lost to #5 Kansas and #9 NC on neutral courts. So let's ignore the 2nd loss to a top team and say Dayton's 1 top 10 loss is equivalent to UCLA's 2 top 10 losses. Dayton lost to #90 Chatanooga at home whereas UCLA lost to #102 neutral so again let's cancel those out. But UCLA also has one more loss to #54 Monmouth on UCLA's home court (Dayton beat Monmouth on a neutral court). So I don't know how you could argue UCLA's losses were better than Dayton's. I would argue Dayton is even better in the loss category as Dayton's 2 losses and UCLA's 3 cancel themselves out, but oh yeah UCLA has a 4th.

So I am looking forward to hearing how Parish could rank UCLA ahead of Dayton -- he will have to use things like momentum, getting better, eye-test. Unfortunately, I think Parish scummed to the same biases he attacks as UCLA, Kentucky, and Gonzaga sound better than Dayton, Vandy, and Iowa even though empirically it is not so.

Do I think Dayton is a top 25 team, probably not. But Dayton should definitely be ranked ahead of UCLA, Baylor, etc.

BTW, Gonzaga is 3-3 top 100 and 0-0 top 25. Best win UConn #31, then drops all the way to #82 Tenn and #97 Washington. UConn is 2-3 top 100. Best wins #33 Michigan and #55 Ohio State. Baylor is 1-2 top 100. Best win #17 Vandy home. Baylor's 2nd best win is #125 SF Austin and 3rd best win is #213 Jackson State?!?!?!

So let's recap Baylor versus Dayton. Both teams are 8-2. Dayton is 5-2 top 100 whereas Baylor is 1-2. Dayton is 2-1 top 25 whereas Baylor is 1-0. Dayton's 2nd (#18), 3rd (#54 Monmouth), 4th (#72 William and Mary), 5th (#85 Alabama), and 6th (#122 N. Fl.) wins are better than Baylor's 2nd best win (#125 SF Austin). Baylor's 3rd-6th best wins are all to teams in the 200s.

priceg75 · #2 12-21-2015, 07:41 AM

From the thread title, I thought Louisiana had some violence at a voting booth.

San Diego Flyer · #3 12-21-2015, 10:10 AM

That is entirely too much logic for talking heads and voters who's day begins and ends with devotion to the name brands. It is not a level playing field. If it takes 10 paragraphs to justify why we should be 6 or 8 places higher in the rankings, that is far more cerebral than the folks who do the voting and the critiquing like Parish. You've lost most of them after the first two sentences.
Parish is rationalizing up the teams he wants up, knowing full well before the print is dry we will be on to the next round of upsets and data/metrics dynamics. I still get the "where is Dayton?'' look from fans in Texas---- W/L, RPI, SOS aside.

SC_Flyer · #4 12-21-2015, 10:29 AM

Yes, keep winning Tournament games and a few years from now Dayton will be thought of like Gonzaga. I think it is a very normal thing to do when people average the past 10 years or so regarding programs. Tournament wins and upsets stick in people's minds more than anything. Just keep building a program and winning in March.

SeasonTicketFan · #5 12-21-2015, 10:40 AM

You try to put statistics in as much as you want, but the eye test that hurt was the 29 point defeat. When voters look at that loss, they view differently than a 5 point loss. Technically, they should not make that much of a difference, but voters can't do precise homework on 300+ teams. They see a box score and headline and they must think UD is not that good.

Wait till March.

shocka43 · #6 12-21-2015, 11:46 AM

Gotta agree that much of that assessment being based on the good numbers doesn't trump the eye test.

UD has been pretty vulnerable with some basic defensive principles that can/will/has gotten this team into trouble. I think we have a solid team, but they aren't IMO a top 25 team or on the verge of being one. (Pierre and the next 5 games may determine otherwise)

When I watch UD I see a tale of two teams. One that is a world beater top 25 and the other which is a lucky bounce of the ball team that struggles or gets by. We have some major defensive liabilities right now that I had hoped would be much stronger or fixed since I defended them about a month ago. Our post perimeter defense has to get much better. Our toughness in the paint, ability on the wing to stop the bounce, the closing out of shooters, etc...that is what keeps this team from being really good right now. I think the only thing that we struggle with at times on O is post entry and ball movement. Everything else comes together when those two things happen.

Right now, what I mentioned above is what hurts UD with the eye test. They fix that, combine it with the numbers, and there are going to be some really good arguments for UD.

UDGutter2 · #7 12-21-2015, 12:46 PM

Who is and isn't a top 25 team is dependent upon the quality of the teams. Name the 25 teams better than the University of Dayton so far this year. I don't think most people can come up with 25 teams you could reasonably justify ahead of UD. Not saying UD is a great team this year, I just think with the rule changes, most teams are down, which puts UD on that list in my opinion.

jack72 · #8 12-21-2015, 02:07 PM

I might argue that losing to Chattanooga at home was a bigger factor than a 29 point loss to X. X is a top 5 team, and right now could be #1 the way they are playing. Chattanooga is the punch line to many jokes. Bottom line, having two losses, we will not get the nod over football schools with two or three losses.

UCLA in there is a joke.

ud2 · #9 12-21-2015, 02:42 PM

IMO, the eye test is still a factor used by the selection committee...I think last year? the selection committee chairman even used the eye test to justify a selection(s).

So, I know that it is very difficult, but the more Big 5-type home and home series that you can get on the schedule, the better.

I think big 5-type home and home series are better than buy games against good non-big 5 teams. You never seem to get much credit for beating a good North Florida or a good William and Mary in a buy game at home. And even if the big 5 team that you beat is having a down year when you beat them, such as Alabama, I think the selection committee still gives you a lot of credit for the "intent" of your scheduling approach.

I think beating the brand name/big 5 teams helps to diminish the amount of "eye test bs" that the selection committee can use against you.

Also, what the media thinks/says, IMO, is also a factor. Seems that you get more media attention beating an Alabama team than beating a good William and Mary team, for example.

Finally, I think road wins are very well-respected by the selection committee. Road wins at big 5-type teams are especially well-respected by the selection committee IMO.

San Diego Flyer · #10 12-21-2015, 03:57 PM

Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan

You try to put statistics in as much as you want, but the eye test that hurt was the 29 point defeat. When voters look at that loss, they view differently than a 5 point loss. Technically, they should not make that much of a difference, but voters can't do precise homework on 300+ teams. They see a box score and headline and they must think UD is not that good.

Wait till March.

I dunno, X is in some tall cotton right now. Undefeated, #1 in RPI. #10 in SOS. Then throw in our 32 point beat down of Alabama who has worked their way into #22 in RPI (3rd in the SEC). There are some mitigating factors working here.

Chattanooga loss hurt a bit at home, but we have endured worse circumstances than what we have right now. What could tip the scales either way is how we finish off OOC. There are a ton of upsets so far, and more to come. Need to finish ooc well.