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  #1  
Old 12-09-2017, 05:42 PM
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Chill Out - 3 Pointers = Lottery Game by Game, Defense Has Little Impact on % Made

Penn was 13/22 from 3 or 59%. They were shooting 32.5% for the year, 33.9% during 2016-2017, and 30.5% during 2015-2016. Penn is not a good 3 point shooting team. If instead they hit 8/22 or 36%, Dayton wins by 7.

Ken Pomeroy has studied 3 point shooting which has the highest variance and the least impacted by defense. However, defense can impact how many attempts depending on how they play the 3. Penn hit the lottery tonight. Don't read too much into that. AG's defense allows 3s by design; every once in a while a team will hit the lottery as defensive close-outs and contesting 3s havd very little impact on offensive 3 shooting %. The only aspect a defense has less control over is opponent's FT shooting %.

https://kenpom.com/blog/defense-has-little-control-over-opponents-3p/

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-3point-line-is-a-lottery/

https://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-defense-3point-percentage/

https://kenpom.com/blog/3point-defense-should-not-be-defined-by-opponents-3p/

Detailed explanation showing three point ATTEMPT defense is real. How many attempts a team allows, but again very little impact on % made.

https://kenpom.com/blog/offense-vs-defense-threepoint-attempts/
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Old 12-09-2017, 05:47 PM
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1-13, almost lottery odds
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Old 12-09-2017, 05:57 PM
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You are being kind. Outcoached and out hustled. Period.
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Old 12-09-2017, 06:41 PM
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Unacceptable
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Old 12-09-2017, 07:21 PM
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When you give them a soft zone it doesn't help
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Old 12-09-2017, 08:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Willy418 View Post
You are being kind. Outcoached and out hustled. Period.
Spot on.
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Old 12-09-2017, 08:48 PM
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Dayton’s first 8 opponents are shooting 35.1% for the season from 3. Versus Dayton they shot 35.3%. All were +/- 3% from their season average versus Dayton except Akron who shoots 35.4% on the season and shot 30% versus Dayton.

Penn was +24.4% better than their season average. Shot 59.1% versus Dayton with their season average being 34.7%.

If you read the kenpom blogs, this had very little to do with Dayton’s defense except Dayton allowed a bunch of attempts. This happened to AM, BG, and OP 2-3 times a year and everyone bemoaned Dayton’s soft three point defense. Likely will happen 1-2 more times this year. AG’s some and man defenses concede some 3s, so did Archie’s pack-line.
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Old 12-09-2017, 08:56 PM
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Ivy League = no athletic scholarships.

The only statistic that Penn should be better than us = SAT scores.
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Old 12-09-2017, 09:30 PM
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Of the 200 minutes in a game, UD's freshman played 91 minutes. Penn took 13 more free throws and shot 55% for the game. Given all that, it was anyone's game going into the 4 minute mark. In those final minutes, we missed easy shots and had critical turnovers. Therefore, game over.

The first poster posited that 1. AG's defense is based upon giving up the three pointer and 2. that defense doesn't affect the % of threes made just the number of attempts. I believe that AG would take strong exception to the first supposition. No coach wants to give an uncontested shot of any kind. On the second point, the poster might be statistically correct. However, any player knows that a contested three is much harder to make. An uncontested three is simply a long free throw with feet planted and shoulders squared up.

In a zone uncontested threes lead to uncontested layups. Our zone is weak but it is , right now, our best option. Freshman become sophomores. Lets enjoy the ride.
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Old 12-09-2017, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted by sabo2 View Post
Of the 200 minutes in a game, UD's freshman played 91 minutes. Penn took 13 more free throws and shot 55% for the game. Given all that, it was anyone's game going into the 4 minute mark. In those final minutes, we missed easy shots and had critical turnovers. Therefore, game over.

The first poster posited that 1. AG's defense is based upon giving up the three pointer and 2. that defense doesn't affect the % of threes made just the number of attempts. I believe that AG would take strong exception to the first supposition. No coach wants to give an uncontested shot of any kind. On the second point, the poster might be statistically correct. However, any player knows that a contested three is much harder to make. An uncontested three is simply a long free throw with feet planted and shoulders squared up.

In a zone uncontested threes lead to uncontested layups. Our zone is weak but it is , right now, our best option. Freshman become sophomores. Lets enjoy the ride.
AG's zone and AM's man to man are designed to prevent 2s, and give up contested 3s. Don't think AG would disagree with that and I know AM would definitely not disagree as part of his pack-line philosophy. Playing basketball I would agree contested shots materially harder, but that is the beauty of science. Tens of thousands of games and hundreds of thousands college 3 point shots show defense does not make much difference on 3 point %. Defense can materially change the amount of 3s a team attempts, but has a small and insignificant change in the % made. Huge sample size shows this.

Would love someone to actually read the blogs amd data and then refute it. There are some counter-arguments, but I personally believe ancedotes less and less. The science of sports has quickly trashed a lot of conventional wisdom.
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Old 12-09-2017, 11:04 PM
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Shooting percentages go down when contested from all parts of the court.
Shooting percentages go up when shots are not contested.

Most of the 3s shot by Penn today were NOT contested. They moved the ball in and out of the zone, later man to man and then got wide open looks. College players will hit much higher percentages when left wide open. Yes, they will miss some wide open 3s, but...
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Old 12-09-2017, 11:22 PM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan View Post
Shooting percentages go down when contested from all parts of the court.
Shooting percentages go up when shots are not contested.

Most of the 3s shot by Penn today were NOT contested. They moved the ball in and out of the zone, later man to man and then got wide open looks. College players will hit much higher percentages when left wide open. Yes, they will miss some wide open 3s, but...
Yep, just look at all the wide open 3s Svoboda missed, and has missed all year.
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Old 12-09-2017, 11:49 PM
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IMHO, Ruechalgrin has a very valid point...shooting almost 60% beyond the arc isn't a gimme even in shoot around. Sometimes, when you're hot you're hot and when you aren't you aren't...today Penn was sizzling. That is not to excuses some sloppy play or missed opportunities...there are still lots of things to work on and smooth out. I guess the good news is we dropped our TOs to only14 from over 20 a game.
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Old 12-09-2017, 11:52 PM
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Good defense does a lot to shut down the opposing teams offense. Playing zone against a hot team from 3 isn't smart basketball. I like analytics but to chalk this up to a hot team & say what can you do absolves the team of responsibility
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Old 12-10-2017, 12:32 AM
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Those Ken Pom stats really have no relationship to the Penn game. He is averaging stats through 1/2 seasons and full seasons. We are discussing a 40 minute game. Pomeroy also cannot and does not plot the 3pt FG% of open looks vs contested looks. This is the entire walnut right there. Not every 3pt attempt is weighted equally in degree of difficulty.

He also admits "there are games where good shooters get a bunch of open looks and they make more than a third of their attempts."

Team 3pt FG% is about 1/2 open looks and 1/2 contested looks. But it means nothing when a team is given open looks 85% of the time in a single game. If Penn got the same looks from the arc in all their previous games as they did today, their 3pt FG% would be much higher than it is now and we'd be talking about how they came close to their average.

Averages are based on constant variables over long periods of time. But each game has its own subset of variables that may be decidedly unique -- and unique not by chance but for completely explainable reasons. And any single game is a very short window where statistical averages have less meaning.

Being wide open for 3pters in the same offense against the same defense in the same game is not a lottery. Its execution. In fact its not an average at all; its unusual and fits in its own statistic bucket.

Pomeroy also talks about good 3pt shooting teams who are defended can take a step back and take an uncontested 3pter, but again it doesnt account for bad defense in any single game where a good shooter is given an uncontested look directly on the arc.

Statistics are handy, but like anything they can be detrimental to reality if you get overly consumed by them. RPI can do this if you dont understand it and aren't careful.
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Old 12-10-2017, 01:57 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
AG's zone and AM's man to man are designed to prevent 2s, and give up contested 3s. Don't think AG would disagree with that and I know AM would definitely not disagree as part of his pack-line philosophy. Playing basketball I would agree contested shots materially harder, but that is the beauty of science. Tens of thousands of games and hundreds of thousands college 3 point shots show defense does not make much difference on 3 point %. Defense can materially change the amount of 3s a team attempts, but has a small and insignificant change in the % made. Huge sample size shows this.

Would love someone to actually read the blogs amd data and then refute it. There are some counter-arguments, but I personally believe ancedotes less and less. The science of sports has quickly trashed a lot of conventional wisdom.
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I'm sorry, but I think you're missing one aspect that I'll bet changes the percentage significantly. Shooting 3s with a lead vs shooting 3s from behind. Notice during games over the years that the Flyers go hot and cold from 3 point land as a team not as individuals. It's a lot easier to shoot a 3 relaxed than it is feeling the pressure. I can imagine a lot of disruptive thoughts go through a player's head when his team is down by 7 and he launches a 3 as opposed to when his team has a 7 point lead and launches one. There comes a point where missing a 3 and having the other team come down and bury one can turn what looks like a manageable deficit into what seems like an insurmountable one. I have to believe that thought can sneak into a players's head when he launches one when down by 7 or so.

I personally can tell 90 percent of the time or so just by the look of the release of a 3 point shot whether it's going to be a good shot (meaning close to on target) or a bad one and the bad ones usually look rushed and off balance and sometimes just not a smooth motion.

Teams with a lead also seem to have better looks because they are more patient with their offense than a team that's behind. All of this has an effect on percentages.

So, maybe partly contested to uncontested doesn't vary the percentages much, but I'm going guess that playing good defense both inside and outside which usually changes the game situation in your favor does have an enormous effect. If the only shots that a team can get off are 3s, they usually aren't going to hit them at a very good clip.

So in summary, I don't think a team wins by having a great 3 point shooting percentage, but by doing all the other things well leads to a great 3 point percentage. Good 3 point shooting usually works well at extending a lead and putting a game out of reach, but it's all the other things that put teams in that situation.

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Old 12-10-2017, 09:33 AM
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I am a fan of sabermetrics. In this case, I think there are some holes. I think KenPom used aggregate to make his arguments instead of refining deeper.

The claim that an open 3 is similar to a free throw made me wonder.
Average free throw percentage in NCAA is 69%
Average 3 point percentage is below 35%.
That is half the rate of a free throw, yet the arc is a bit over 5 feet away.
That seems like a wide disparity given only 5 feet.

Players concentrate on 3 point shots and dunks to a point that the free throw percentage have dropped over the years. If they work so much on the 3 ball, shouldn't the average 3 point shot percentage be higher?

What causes those percentage to halve?
1. I believe defense. As Chris pointed out the stats are not broken down between contested and uncontested. If broken apart, you would see an open 3 with feet planted, more square to basket etc... is a better shot.
2. The shot clock plays defense. Included in those numbers are desperation 3s that are launched at the end of the shot clock. UD has had a more than a few this year.
3. The quality of shooters. Again, aggregate does not tell the story. BROB is lumped in with Kendall Pollard and Chris Wright. Bad shooters drag down the percentage.


KenPom said "A good 3 point offense will beat a good 3 point defense". What about a good 3 point offense and a bad 3 point defense? That is what we saw yesterday. Yes, teams will miss wide open 3s, but they will make a higher percentage if left open. As someone else posted Svoboda has missed a few of them this year.

Yesterday the UD defense played poor zone and man to man. They gave up open 3s, layups and more. Penn sliced the defense like Swiss cheese. It is obvious, they studied the film and found the weaknesses.

You can chalk the game up to a fluke hot shooting team, but this team has struggled defensively all year. The zone might have worked for a while due to the lack of film and element of surprise, but now it is exposed and the man to man is awful. The freshman have not learned how to play good college defense yet. Maybe they will get better as the season progresses
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Old 12-10-2017, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan View Post
The shot clock plays defense.
My favorite line of the whole thread. Spot on.
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Old 12-10-2017, 01:50 PM
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Quote from Chris “And any single game is a very short window where statistical averages have less meaning.”

Exactly, there is an extremely high variance per game regarding 3 point shooting, it is the highest variance offensive statistic game-by-game. Plot out what you would expect Penn to shoot from 3 versus the Flyers if they played 40 games against Dayton. I am positive 1 game would be over 50% and 1 game would be under 10%. I don’t have time to run the analysis, but you likely would find a normal or Gaussian distribution (think Bell Curve). My point is defense does have some impact on 3% percentage per game, but random chance has massively more impact.

You are correct, kenpom does not chart contested versus uncontested and that is the weak link in the analysis. I 100% agree with this. However, the NBA teams chart contested 3s versus non and again not a material difference in percentage made. There is a difference, but not even remotey close to a +24% difference

Most of Penn’s +24% versus their season average was random chance. Say a team shoots 60% when shooting uncontested 3s which is way high and not close to the truth and say they shoot 30% on contested 3s. And assume 50/50 last night between uncontested and contested (again high as rewatching the game last night 2/3rds looked contested and 1/3rd not). Even with these generous assumptions, Penn should have shot 45% which would have been one of their top 2-3 games in 3 point shooting out of the last 40. 9 less points from 3 and Dayton has a different game. Penn gets more open looks in Ivy League play and has once shot over 50% in the last 40 games beyond the Dayton game.

Last reply on the topic.
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Old 12-10-2017, 05:56 PM
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I understand Penn may have been a bit lucky to hit a high percentage, but I contend that the vast majority of shots were not contested which helped improve their luck significantly.

I saw a defense that gave up open shot after open shot. Penn moved the ball around with ease and had the team out of defensive position all day long. The fact that there were so few fouls until late tells you how out of position and lacking in challenges.

When college teams shoot over 50%, I attribute that to very bad defense more than anything else.
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Old 12-10-2017, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan View Post
I understand Penn may have been a bit lucky to hit a high percentage, but I contend that the vast majority of shots were not contested which helped improve their luck significantly.

I saw a defense that gave up open shot after open shot. Penn moved the ball around with ease and had the team out of defensive position all day long. The fact that there were so few fouls until late tells you how out of position and lacking in challenges.

When college teams shoot over 50%, I attribute that to very bad defense more than anything else.
If you can't play defense you won't win. Offensive efficiency on a bad defensive team can't offset the bad defense.
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