Win-loss projections for UD

[ud2]

I was curious how accurate some of these win-loss projections for UD are, so I wanted to see what the projections were before UD has played/before the projections change. None of these projections include the last 2 games in Maui. These are the only projection sites that I'm aware of.

1. http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Dayton.html

-projecting 18-11(9-7)

-expected rpi of 78


2. http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...rs/projections

-projecting 19-10(9-7), 4th place in A10 behind VCU/St. Louis/LaSalle. Basically tied with Richmond for 4th place though, only 0.2 difference.

-36% chance of UD making the NCAA tournament this year.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tou...t-predictions/


3. http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_110_Men.html

-haven't made any projections yet

-Edit: projecting 18-11(9-7)


4. Ken Pomeroy did a projection, but it appears to be behind a paywall.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

[Larymike]

Unless UD learns QUICK from their first game they will see a record close to .500 the entire season. 13-16 wins if they continue to play like they did against IPFW today.

[Tony T 71]

First game new chemistry being developed, we won a close game finally!

20-11. I believe we play 31 games.

[UDDoug]

Well a measuring stick comes out Wednesday. Fordham destroyed SF today.

And of course SF2 beat Miami Friday. Of course this years Miami looks nothing like last years Miami.
Posted via Mobile Device

	Fordham FORDHAM Fordham University is an independent Jesuit university established in 1841 as St. John's College on old Rose Hill Manor in the village of Fordham, then part of Westchester County in the Bronx, NY. The name Fordham is derived from the Anglo-Saxon words "ford" and "ham," meaning a wading place or ford by a settlement. Rose Hill is the name given to the site in 1787 by Robert Watts, a wealthy New York merchant, in honor of his family's ancestral home of the same name in Scotland. The College was originally staffed by diocesan clergy. The name was officially changed to Fordham University in 1907. Fordham's 10 schools enroll 14,448 students. There are 7,652 undergraduates, of whom 3,842 live in University-managed housing either on-campus or in the local community. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams. Athletic claim to fame is consistent mediocrity in nearly all sports and few A10 title winning programs.

[rollo]

Originally Posted by Tony T 71 First game new chemistry being developed, we won a close game finally!

It was IPFW's first game...and like us they lost 2 of their top scorers from last year...and Forbes, like Sibert, is a first year transfer...and they didn't appear to have any chemistry problems.

Why is it that we're always the team that needs time? and excuses??

[jpk4ud]

Originally Posted by rollo It was IPFW's first game...and like us they lost 2 of their top scorers from last year...and Forbes, like Sibert, is a first year transfer...and they didn't appear to have any chemistry problems. Why is it that we're always the team that needs time? and excuses??

They must need tIme Rollo, they got beat today didn't they?

[TA111]

Originally Posted by rollo It was IPFW's first game...and like us they lost 2 of their top scorers from last year...and Forbes, like Sibert, is a first year transfer...and they didn't appear to have any chemistry problems. Why is it that we're always the team that needs time? and excuses??

No excuses-we WON. Geez, go back in your hole.

[rollo]

After today's non-loss, I am not only thankful that we didn't get invited to the Big East, I'm also grateful that we didn't get invited to join the Summit Conference.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by rollo ...I'm also grateful that we didn't get invited to join the Summit Conference.

Not much solace from any of these projections, IPFW is projected to finish 4th in the Summit at 17-13, 7-7, which would give them a RPI around 170 and a 6% chance of making the NCAA tournament. rpiforecast has them finishing at #270. But, maybe they will surprise everyone and do better than everyone thinks they will.

St. Francis of Pennsylvania is projecting to be even worse than IPFW though, so that's good.

There haven't been many modern era home opening losses:

lost to Vanderbilt 1992-1993 season
lost to Murray State 1997-1998 season
lost to Cincinnati 2000-2001 season
lost to Eastern Kentucky 2004-2005 season.

[Glen Clark]

Originally Posted by ud2 . . . There haven't been many modern era home opening losses: lost to Vanderbilt 1992-1993 season lost to Murray State 1997-1998 season lost to Cincinnati 2000-2001 season lost to Eastern Kentucky 2004-2005 season.

One each for O'Brien, Purnell, and Gregory?

___________________
Whether your glass is half empty or half full, you still have more to drink.

	Brian Gregory BRIAN GREGORY UD Men's Basketball Head Coach since 2004. Groomed by the likes of Judd Heathcoate and Tom Izzo at Michigan State, as well as Kevin O'Neill and others, Gregory's defensive-minded leadership has led Dayton to NCAA and multiple NIT appearances. A good recruiter, BG has elevated the athleticism of the squad in recent years and kept top area talent at home. Still looking for that breakthrough season with his own players that catapult him to the NCAA tourney. Graduated from Oakland University.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by Glen Clark One each for O'Brien, Purnell, and Gregory? ___________________ Whether your glass is half empty or half full, you still have more to drink.

1 for O'Brien, 2 for Purnell, and 1 for Gregory. In Purnell's defense though, that 2000-2001 Cincinnati team at that time was ranked #22 in the polls.

	Brian Gregory BRIAN GREGORY UD Men's Basketball Head Coach since 2004. Groomed by the likes of Judd Heathcoate and Tom Izzo at Michigan State, as well as Kevin O'Neill and others, Gregory's defensive-minded leadership has led Dayton to NCAA and multiple NIT appearances. A good recruiter, BG has elevated the athleticism of the squad in recent years and kept top area talent at home. Still looking for that breakthrough season with his own players that catapult him to the NCAA tourney. Graduated from Oakland University.

[sabo2]

In the Govt. we have a motto. " In order to hit the target, shoot first and whatever you hit, call it the target."I'll make my predictions after the season is over.

[longtimefan]

I'm with Tony. I'll stick to my original projection of 21-10. One game isn't going to change my mind.

[Alberto Strasse]

Last year I was unfortunate enough to hit it on the nose at 17-14. This year the team I saw yesterday dominate IPFW will go 24-7. They will be 12-4 in A-10 play finish in third place and earn an at large bid to the NCAA. Am I crazy or what? The only good thing about being a defensively challenged team is playing in a season where the rules have changed to benefit the offense. Defense may be proved to be irrelevant in men's college basketball.

[westchesterflyer]

Seth Davis from today's SI.com


VCU 96, Illinois State 58

Lawdy, lawdy, I am telling you to get to a TV screen near you and check out the Shaka Show post haste. Yes, you'd expect the Redbirds to be overmatched given that they have 10 new players, but this was still an overpowering performance by VCU -- especially in the first half, after which, the Rams led 52-22. As I've said several times already, I believe this will be the meanest, fastest, deepest, most Havoc-inducing team that Smart has coached at VCU. He played 11 guys and substituted in waves. You just can't prepare for that kind of unrelenting pressure.

The main takeaway I had from watching VCU is that Juvonte Reddic is a much-improved player. The 6-9 senior forward has always been a factor around the rim, but he has really developed his offensive repertoire, extending his shooting range almost to the three-point line. Reddic is able to roam away from the basket because of the addition of Florida State transfer Terrance Shannon, a 6-8, 240-pound redshirt senior who loves contact, sets ultra-wide screens and is a beast on the glass. In other words ... I spy a Glue Guy!

We'll know a lot more about VCU after it plays a true road game at Virginia on Tuesday night, but regardless of whether the Rams win that one, I could envision them going undefeated in the Atlantic 10 this season. They're that good.



Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...#ixzz2kN3lRRMP

[Sit_Down_Digger]

I agree with Alberto Strasse...24-7 and with a little luck 25-6 and a top 25 ranking. It's going to be a great year to be a Flyer Fan!

[ud2]

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_110_Men.html came out with their projection: 18-11(9-7). So, the consensus is 18 or 19 wins with 10 or 11 losses and 9-7 in the A10.

[longtimefan]

Originally Posted by ud2 http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_110_Men.html came out with their projection: 18-11(9-7). So, the consensus is 18 or 19 wins with 10 or 11 losses and 9-7 in the A10.

18-11 is a strange projection since we play 31 games.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by longtimefan 18-11 is a strange projection since we play 31 games.

Yes, they can't project the last 2 Maui games since the opponent is to be determined. I'm pretty sure that they will make a projection the night before or the day of those 2 games.

I am wondering if realtimerpi.com or teamrankings.com uses their own model/formula to come up with their projections, or if they use somebody else's formula. The rpiforecast site uses the Sagarin PREDICTOR to come up with their projections.

I'm pretty sure Ken Pomeroy came up with his own model/formula.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/

[AC91]

i'm going with 22-9.

[m21eagle45]

23-8 or 22-9 depending who we play after Gonzaga in Maui.

[Gem City]

Projections are improving

[pmcmullen]

I think we're somewhere between a Sweet 16 team, and an NIT bubble team.

I've seen a couple games where I was certain it would be a long season, and I just watched us walk in and comfortably beat GT, too. Our record depends on what team we see more of.

[UDBrian]

I think the big difference in optimism is due to Sibert. He is producing just as we hoped he would which is huge. It gives the team another shooter and someone who can create on the perimeter. If someone had told us that Pierre would have two points and two boards we would have assumed it was a loss.

Scott is playing like the guy from the Red/Blue game which nobody expected. He is physical and has really advanced from last season

Price is playing well and Smith is really coming on.

If the team continues to work on the D it could be fun

[ud2]

teamrankings now giving ud a 54% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology

21 wins now projected by realtime

21 wins now projected by rpiforecast

22 wins now projected by teamrankings

[westchesterflyer]

They now have 2 more wins at this point than I predicted (GT & Zags).

[TA111]

Originally Posted by UDBrian I think the big difference in optimism is due to Sibert. He is producing just as we hoped he would which is huge. It gives the team another shooter and someone who can create on the perimeter. If someone had told us that Pierre would have two points and two boards we would have assumed it was a loss. Scott is playing like the guy from the Red/Blue game which nobody expected. He is physical and has really advanced from last season Price is playing well and Smith is really coming on. If the team continues to work on the D it could be fun

Then add in the contributions off the benchfrom Pollard and of course Vee. This team is deep and will get contributions from different players each game.

[pmcmullen]

Originally Posted by westchesterflyer They now have 2 more wins at this point than I predicted (GT & Zags).

Sometimes I like being wrong...

[ud2]

Projections for UD keep improving...


-rpiforceast predicting 32 rpi and 23 wins and 11 a10 wins
up from 78 rpi and 18 wins and 9 a10 wins

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Dayton.html


-teamrankings: 23 wins and 10-6 in a10
up from 19 wins and 9 a10 wins

66% chance of making the NCAA tournament, predicting a 6 seed
up from 34%

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...rs/projections

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology


-realtimerpi 23 wins, 11-5 a10
up from 18 and 9-7 initially

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_110_Men.html


Full speed ahead.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by ud2 Projections for UD keep improving... -rpiforceast predicting 32 rpi and 23 wins and 11 a10 wins up from 78 rpi and 18 wins and 9 a10 wins http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Dayton.html -teamrankings: 23 wins and 10-6 in a10 up from 19 wins and 9 a10 wins 66% chance of making the NCAA tournament, predicting a 6 seed up from 34% http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...rs/projections http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...s/bracketology -realtimerpi 23 wins, 11-5 a10 up from 18 and 9-7 initially http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_110_Men.html Full speed ahead.

I am hoping all those future projections work better than the projections for fantasy football. I don't know how many times this year I have been projected to score high points for the week and ended up in the bottom.

[westchesterflyer]

I originally had us at 10 - 5 in OOC. Have now moved that to 13 - 2 ( Ill. State now a win). Ole Miss is our remaining loss although Iona scares me.

Staying with 11 - 5 in A -10 play. Losses to VCU (only home loss); UR, GM, St. Joe's & St. Lou.

How does 24 - 7 sound?

[FlyingArrow]

All of those games sound winnable. How about 30-1?

[Gazoo]

I haven't put a number on it but my preseason prediction is we make the NCAA, they have the talent and the schedule lines up. No excuses. If we go 8-8 in conference you might not see me around here anymore.

[ud2]

I could see this team finishing 13-2 in OOC and going 12-4 in the A10 with losses at Mississippi, at home to VCU, at SLU, at Richmond, and at home to UMass for 25-6.

Who knows though, they could be better or worse than that. How about 30-1 and a #1 seed?

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Massachusetts MASSACHUSETTS UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, sits on nearly 1,450-acres in the scenic Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts, 90 miles from Boston and 175 miles from New York City. The campus provides a rich cultural environment in a rural setting close to major urban centers. UMass enrolls over 20,000 undergraduates and 5,000 post-grad students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Minutemen. Women's teams known as the Minutewomen. Sports achievements include NCAA Final Four appearances in men's basketball and women's soccer.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[jack72]

Ol Miss beat GT at home by 10. Should be a good game, but we are money against the SEC

[KYFlyer]

Originally Posted by jack72 Ol Miss beat GT at home by 10. Should be a good game, but we are money against the SEC

Actually that was a neutral court game.