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  #1  
Old 03-12-2017, 10:05 PM
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UD and Wichita State Opponents

UD beat Austin Peay 96-68
Austin Peay beat Murray State 84-81
Murray State beat Illinois State 73-70
Illinois State beat Wichita State 76-62

on the other hand...

Wichita State beat SLU 75-45
SLU beat UMass 74-70
UMass beat UD 67-55
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  #2  
Old 03-12-2017, 10:33 PM
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More instructive:

SLU played @ UD and lost by 21, 67-46
SLU played at WSU and lost by 30, 75-45

WSU played 9 Seed Michigan State in the Bahamas and lost by 5, 77-72
UD played 10 Seed VCU home & away and lost by 5 @ VCU, 73-68, but won by 7 @ The Arena, 79-72
UD played 11 Seed Rhode Island home & away and won both, by 1 @ URI, 75-74, and by 3 @ The Arena, 67-64

In looking at their stats, I can gather the following conclusions:
1) WSU buries subpar opponents by huge margins, but has trouble with Dance-worthy opponents. That's how they averaged almost 20 a game more than the opponents: they buried the bad teams (and they played a lot of bad teams).
2) They truly go 9-10 deep.
3) They share the ball well, averaging @ 17 assists/game.
4) They shoot lights-out, and prevent the opponent from doing so. And
5) They crash the glass relentlessly, with a RPG advantage of @ 8 boards/game.

They also have some size, but not a ton. They're mostly quick, wiry guys. If we try to get in a jump-shooting contest with them, it's probably a bad idea. Pound the paint. Slash & dish. And defend like it's January, not March. If we do those 3 things, then we stand a decent chance to advance & play Sunday. Otherwise...
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Old 03-12-2017, 10:33 PM
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I think someone else stated this in another thread. The teams are seeded correctly based on accomplishments.

Witchita State 3-4 against the Top 100

Dayton 12-4 against the Top 100

Their top 100 wins:
Illinois State 33 (two)
Colorado State 66

In their defense - they don't have any other teams lower than 145 in their conference and have been extremely efficient (kenpom 8) in disposing of them.

If Dayton plays like they did in mid-February when they were focused on winning the regular season A10 we will be fine.

I love that the media is all over WSU. Nothing will focus them like that. Marshall seems a little sure of himself. Bugs me a little.

Last edited by UD90; 03-12-2017 at 10:39 PM..
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Old 03-12-2017, 10:36 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I think someone else stated this in another thread. The teams are seeded correctly based on accomplishments.

Witchita State 3-4 against the Top 100

Dayton 12-4 against the Top 100

Their top 100 wins:
Illinois State 33 (two)
Colorado State 66

In their defense - they don't have any other teams lower than 145 in their conference and have been extremely efficient (kenpom 8) in doing so.

If Dayton plays like they did in mid-February when they were focused on winning the regular season A10 we will be fine.

I love that the media is all over WSU. Nothing will focus them like that. Marshall seems a little sure of himself. Bugs me a little.
Re Marshall, there's 1 good way to humble him: beat him.

GO FLYERS! HUSK THE SHOCKERS!
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Old 03-12-2017, 10:41 PM
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They also have a Daishon Smith on their roster too.
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  #6  
Old 03-12-2017, 11:10 PM
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Jan 14th - Illinois State 76 WSU 62

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6kZpmWL61w&t=112s
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:41 AM
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Even when you include their 40 point blow out win over Illinois State, the Shocker's average margin of victory vs. the top 100 is 4.28.

-10 vs. #7
-5 vs. #51
+15 vs. #66
-17 vs. #40
-14 vs. #33
+41 vs. #33
+20 vs. #33

Dayton:
+5 vs. #78
-4 vs. #17
+7 vs. #86
+16 vs. #70
+14 vs. #55
-3 vs. #50
+5 vs. #38
+16 vs. #91
+3 vs #37
+16 vs. #80
-5 vs. #19
+1 vs. #37
+4 vs. #91
+7 vs. #90
+7 vs. #19
-7 vs. #90

Our point differential is vs. the top 100 is +5.125.

They are a great team. But they have played an awful schedule. So i'm trying not to get too intimidated by their gaudy offensive and defensive rankings. They have played a TON of teams that are in the 200s in terms of RPI's. Against the best competition, their numbers are more down to earth. I want to believe this is going to be a dog fight. Flyers are going to have to defend and rebound better than they have all year.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:25 AM
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One would assume that Las Vegas went through the same general analysis then looked at how bad we played in our last two games and how good WSU played no matter whom the opponents were. I think we have to be really concerned about what UD team is going to show up and when. We have an A game and now is the time to find it again and bring it big time.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:52 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I think someone else stated this in another thread. The teams are seeded correctly based on accomplishments.

Witchita State 3-4 against the Top 100

Dayton 12-4 against the Top 100

Their top 100 wins:
Illinois State 33 (two)
Colorado State 66

In their defense - they don't have any other teams lower than 145 in their conference and have been extremely efficient (kenpom 8) in disposing of them.

If Dayton plays like they did in mid-February when they were focused on winning the regular season A10 we will be fine.

I love that the media is all over WSU. Nothing will focus them like that. Marshall seems a little sure of himself. Bugs me a little.
Marshall seems a little sure of himself? LOL...I sure as hell hope Archie is just as sure of himself as Marshall is. That cat is a great coach and doesn't give an inch to any school bigger, badder, or better than they are.I'll guarantee you one thing and that is Marshall will have his team ready, playing hard D, and probably shooting the ball fairly well. Let's hope Archie has his team playing very similar....

Last edited by steve; 03-13-2017 at 07:56 AM..
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Old 03-13-2017, 05:27 PM
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I see that the MVC (Missouri Valley Conference) is a weak conference. Only two teams in that conference had winning records (Wichita State and Illinois State) versus the Atlantic 10 where there were 7 teams.

I see that Wichita State played four teams that ended up in the NCAA, Louisville (L), Michigan State (L), S. Dakota State (W) and Oklahoma State (L). To be compared to Dayton playing Saint Mary (L), Northwestern (L), Winthrop (W) and Vanderbilt (W) plus our games in conference against Rhode Island and VCU.

I see Wichita State has 9 guys 6'6" or taller versus Dayton's 5 players. But this has been true in almost all of our 24 wins.

Rember: Marshall, the head coach, is the guy who lost his composure in a summer game up in Canada (in August). That was embarrassing for Wichita State??
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Old 03-13-2017, 05:39 PM
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You forgot a pretty good East Tennessee State (W). We went 6-3 against the field.
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Old 03-13-2017, 05:47 PM
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The Fly: i stand corrected. I missed them on the bracket. Thank you.
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:18 PM
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We beat St. Mary's and Northwestern if we are at full strength. KP played against NW but was ineffective.

No disrespect to WSU because they are a solid team, but ifUD plays how they CAN play, I like our chances. Is the on/off switch there for these guys?
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:50 PM
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Dayton probably has a higher ceiling, but also a lower cellar. Unfortunately, we've been playing nowhere close to our ceiling for the better part of 3 weeks. The last-minute dramatics only last for so long.
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