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FLIGHT SCHEDULE w/AD Neil Sullivan: Part 5: Three Dimensional Chess
FLIGHT SCHEDULE w/AD Neil Sullivan: Part 5: Three Dimensional Chess
Christopher Rieman
Published by Chris R
08-16-2019
Smile FLIGHT SCHEDULE w/AD Neil Sullivan: Part 5: Three Dimensional Chess



Every open date on the non-conference schedule holds value and serves a useful purpose. Some spots are reserved for “best available” opponents from the power conferences, while other dates are utilized as caulking between the joints to support an overall scheduling direction. Remaining dates are held open for buy games the Flyers should win convincingly. The schedule needs those decompression windows against lesser foes to avoid the proverbial trap game before or after grueling exempt tournaments, long travel itineraries, final exams, or holidays when the athletes grab a red-eye home.

The Flyer Faithful won’t soon forget the 84-55 shellacking by Buffalo at UD Arena upon return from winning the 2011 Old Spice Classic in Orlando. These are 19- and 20-yr olds that tire, need rest and recovery, and enough headspace to manage the emotional rollercoaster of big-time college basketball. Every game on the schedule serves a purpose and UD fights for the right balance.

TO THE ENDS OF THE EARTH

Sometimes they even fight as hard for buy games as they do the home-and-homes with SEC opponents.

Maui Invitational organizers originally paired island participants Virginia Tech and Dayton with Delaware State as the fourth exempt game at UD Arena and Cassell Coliseum. Delaware State was #351 out of 353 teams in the NET rankings. For a program like Virginia Tech with infinite Quad 1 and Quad 2 ACC opponents, playing Delaware State is inconsequential to their NCAA at-large scheduling model. For UD however, it matters.

UD received the green light from Maui organizers to pursue an alternate opponent. That opened the door but required an unpacking of the Virginia Tech/Delaware State game because that pairing would also be affected were UD to swap Delaware State with another opponent. It also necessitated Virginia Tech’s cooperation as an existing pairing partner. Through a contact at Michigan State also Maui participants Dayton leveraged the Spartan relationship to create a new pairing between the two schools. The grunt work led to Charleston Southern (#189 in the NET) who coincidentally needed a couple games on their schedule. MSU agreed to swap out their original on-campus Maui game for Charleston Southern as well.

Because neither matchup is a conventional buy game due to tournament oversight, CSU wasn’t cashing in at the gate like conventional road games. UD and MSU chose to split CSU’s transportation costs to ease their financial burden and seal the deal. Virginia Tech traded for a different on-campus Maui game that did not affect their scheduling mission. Without strong relationships and out-of-box thinking in Maui and East Lansing, perhaps the shuffle hits a dead end. The switcheroo can and will make a difference this year.

Casual fans are oblivious to those kinds of efforts that scrape the Mariana’s Trench for a mechanical advantage.

“It is difficult to describe each team we pursue, because we pursue so many,” Sullivan said. “We call, text, and email. We advertise on password-protected scheduling software sites with other schools, meet with television partners, media members, event organizers, and anyone who could give us an edge or quality intelligence on games. I am comfortable saying we pursued every opportunity we thought made sense for our program this year. It’s exhaustive.”

SCOUTING FOR OPPOSITION

Part of the exhaustion is performing deep data dives into more than just NET and SOS. Sullivan and his staff digest seasonal box scores of potential opponents. They scour rosters, identify graduations and incoming recruits or college transfers, determine the percentage of returning points and rebounds, assess coaching continuity, style of play, league chances, and ability to win a conference tournament especially from one-bid leagues. The interrogation doesn’t stop there as Sullivan explained.

“’Is the game against a program with legitimate at-large consideration?’” he asked himself. “’Are the travel arrangements overly detrimental? Is the date and time compatible with pre-existing scheduling commitments? Is the game on national TV? Do we have a legitimate chance to compete and win? Does the game interfere with final exams?’”

Potential opponents must still agree to play, but sometimes UD makes the call based on those qualifications.

“It’s like playing three-dimensional chess,” Sullivan stated, “but our only goals are to win Championships and compete in the NCAA tournament. I’ll look at any option we think maximizes that opportunity.”

Power-conference schools and Selection Committees aren’t going to feel sorry for programs like Dayton and self-pity is a path the UD Athletic Department refuses to take. Understanding the dynamics of scheduling, NCAA selection precedent, and performance data metrics can help shift some of the prevailing winds however. The Quadrant system provides some catch-up ability on neutral and away courts and the Flyers will have to capitalize on those opportunities this year.



“Scheduling matters -- it’s a very serious issue,” Sullivan said. “Rather than whine, I prefer focusing our efforts with precision and securing one or two more NCAA at-large non-conference opponents. It is a very healthy schedule overall this season, though we wanted more at-large quality at home. While scheduling gets more challenging every year, we are still only one non-conference game away from last year’s schedule the Mississippi State home game. Maui will be on par or better than Atlantis. The A10 must also take a step forward this season and that includes us doing our part.”

FIRE UP THE WOPR

The cadre of spreadsheet gurus and database nerds on Sullivan’s staff remain wide-eyed for any nugget of valuable intel. UD must think outside the box, remain flexible, creative, and willing to try fresh approaches to overcome the challenges in front of them. The athletic department made a recent investment in time, money, and resources to capture every boxscore of every college basketball game since 1984. The goal is to spot trends and find common ground among the best teams in the country every season. For instance, did the Memphis Tigers of 2005-2009 share any good habits with the 2011-2016 San Diego State Aztecs or the perennial metrics of the Kansas basketball program? Do the best teams share a propensity of forcing turnovers, limiting second-chance points, excel at offensive rebounding, or perhaps play larger rotations? Sullivan wants to learn something new and find another edge. It won’t improve the schedule, but it may improve the product on the court.

DELIVERANCE

This year is an important one for UD men’s basketball. The overriding goal is to make the NCAA tournament every season, but the coaching transition and roster turnover necessitated some sensible patience. Now it’s time to fly.

Value judgements on the RPI, NET, Ken Pom, KPI, SOS, Quadrant system, bracket bubble, or non-conference scheduling are far less important than recognizing how those gears turn and why they matter. Dayton must remain transparent to the Flyer fan base while focusing those efforts on providing a home schedule the Faithful want to pay to see. Finally, UD must deliver a men’s basketball product that achieves necessary performance minimums based on 35 years of NCAA Tournament selection precedent whether or not the precedent appears fair and impartial to schools from outside the power conferences.

Sullivan remains optimistic about this year’s schedule and those to come.

“High-profile matchups away from the Arena make this a schedule we can leverage for NCAA at-large consideration, but that doesn’t dismiss the disappointment some fans have at the home schedule. We understand it and will remain steadfast in our efforts to use every phone call, text message, and email necessary to convince opponents a road game at Dayton is in their best interest.”



He’s right. Dayton can go places with this year’s slate of opponents. Maui, Colorado, and St. Mary’s (CA) are a solid nucleus, while the home schedule treads just enough water to stay relevant as A10 play takes over. The Flyers are deeper and more talented, and this is Anthony Grant’s best team thus far. They are also more experienced. The league should also be much-improved. Davidson and VCU are preseason Top-30 in several polls, while St. Bonaventure, Duquesne, and Richmond are darkhorses with high upside. Rhode Island is never too far away either. From start to finish, the schedule may be stronger than 2018-19.

The measuring stick remains the same: at least 23 wins and a Top-4 finish in the A10, as well as a Top-75 SOS and Top-50 computer ranking. Meet or exceed those minimums and you’re all but guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Selection Committee’s bullpen column for at-large consideration. That won’t fix the home schedule, but it will put the Flyers within reach of something more important March Madness.




Still, UD Vice President/Director of Athletics Neil Sullivan refuses to give an inch.

“Fans pay enough money and have been loyal enough that they have every right to just be ‘fans’. It’s my job to figure it out and let them enjoy the Flyers with quality games at UD Arena.”

Steve Jobs told the world to ‘think different’. Sullivan and his team are doing that too, one pressure point and one schedule at a time. Fans may or may not agree on processes or outcomes, but certain realities of the changing college basketball landscape (and UD's efforts to counter those forces) are largely undisputed. Until those forces abate, the best counter-punch is winning.


BACK TO PART 4: Inside and Outside
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  #1  
By N2663R on 08-16-2019, 08:50 AM
Chris,
Thanks for this insight, it was outstanding and confirms what a lot of us assumed. The numbers/metrics were very insightful. There's a lot to unpack, but for me, a couple of things became clear.
-We should be grateful to have NS as our AD.
-UD should be grateful for the Flyer Faithful. With their unyielding support, we will continue to be a perennial pick for these non-con tournaments which will probably be our only assured access to Quad 1-2 teams. We need to finish 1-2 in 7 out of 10 of these tournaments.
-I was disappointed that our focus is to be a perennial top 4 A10 team and not a perennial top 1-2 A10 team. We should be winning the A10 7 out of 10 years. Do these things and the rest will take care of itself.
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  #2  
By Chris R on 08-16-2019, 10:56 AM
We want to be a Top2 A10 team but when looking at NCAA at large bids, Neil was referring to the low bar cutoff on what the minimum resume' had to be based on historicals. We always aim to achieve more than that but its imperative to know where the line begins.
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  #3  
By Class of 73 Alum on 08-16-2019, 04:07 PM
Chris...thanks to you for the outstanding work in putting this together. Very insightful!. Neil...keep up the good work! Dayton alums back in your hometown are proud of your efforts!!
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