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Old 03-19-2015, 08:51 PM
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An Ideal Solution for Fixing the "First Four"

With all of the hubbub over our Flyers playing at home in the First Four and having an advantage, I think I have a solution, but there's a catch.

First off, I generally agree that it's not right that UD got to play this type of a game on its own floor. While we really shouldn't have been seeded that low to begin with (different debate for a different day), the situation is going to be unavoidable in some future circumstances again where we really do deserve to be playing in that round.

My concern here is that with enough of an uproar, the committee will more seriously consider taking the games from UD Arena, which would be a huge mistake on their part and a huge loss for us. So what would be the best outcome for us? I'm not sure, but my idea is that with any luck, the tournament expands ASAP to 72 teams* and another "First Four" site is added, to be played in a place like Indianapolis or Kansas City or some other centrally-located, deserving city with a quality arena. If/when that happens, and if UD is in the position to be playing in that opening round of games, they could always automatically be sent to play their game at the other First Four site. That way UD Arena doesn't have to lose the games because perceived unfairness, and the committee isn't forced to think about extraneous factors when it comes to placing the Flyers into the tournament.

Thoughts?


*Although I don't really like the idea of expanding the tournament any further, I do believe that it's going to happen eventually, so this is how I think it should be done to avoid last night's situation.
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Old 03-19-2015, 09:08 PM
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Not a bad solution but say good bye to the NIT and all the revenue that brings to participants.
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Old 03-19-2015, 09:13 PM
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Originally Posted by ClevelandFlyer05 View Post
With all of the hubbub over our Flyers playing at home in the First Four and having an advantage, I think I have a solution, but there's a catch.

First off, I generally agree that it's not right that UD got to play this type of a game on its own floor. While we really shouldn't have been seeded that low to begin with (different debate for a different day), the situation is going to be unavoidable in some future circumstances again where we really do deserve to be playing in that round.

My concern here is that with enough of an uproar, the committee will more seriously consider taking the games from UD Arena, which would be a huge mistake on their part and a huge loss for us. So what would be the best outcome for us? I'm not sure, but my idea is that with any luck, the tournament expands ASAP to 72 teams* and another "First Four" site is added, to be played in a place like Indianapolis or Kansas City or some other centrally-located, deserving city with a quality arena. If/when that happens, and if UD is in the position to be playing in that opening round of games, they could always automatically be sent to play their game at the other First Four site. That way UD Arena doesn't have to lose the games because perceived unfairness, and the committee isn't forced to think about extraneous factors when it comes to placing the Flyers into the tournament.

Thoughts?


*Although I don't really like the idea of expanding the tournament any further, I do believe that it's going to happen eventually, so this is how I think it should be done to avoid last night's situation.
Expanding to 72 will require either an extra game by four teams, beyond the First eight or byes for some teams to get to a number that will work. That's getting complicated.
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Old 03-19-2015, 09:31 PM
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The committee should just say it's too unfair to make someone play in someone's home gym. UD will be nudged up the "S" curve until they don't play in the first four. Worst case they nudge us up 4 spots on the curve. Big deal! I maintain that moving from 46 to 42 is well within the uncertainty in the process.
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Old 03-19-2015, 09:38 PM
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Actually, the committee could split our first four into two in Dayton and two at another court. It would mean building another floor and some amount of duplicate costs, but they are made of money.

They also can make the rule, if Dayton is last team in, they get dropped, and if they are the second through fourth team in they get bumped up. We would gain a advantage 3/4 times and get crapped on 1/4.
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Old 03-19-2015, 10:08 PM
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Combine the NCAA and NIT

The NCAA owns the NIT. There are 320+ Div 1 teams. A tournament of 96 teams will include roughy 30% of the Div 1...still small compared to FB bowl games and professional sports.

Give the top 32 a bye....the next 64 play the first round. That's it.

As popular and interesting as the NCAA tournament is, it is not comprised of the 64 best teams, or even close to that. At least half the NIT field is as good or better than teams in NCAA because of the auto bids.

Expanding to 96 would solve the problem of really good teams not making the cut, while retaining the "charm" of the auto-bid teams.

Long overdue.
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Old 03-19-2015, 10:35 PM
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No matter how you shake it...unless you pick a neutral site...this isn't avoidable.

Add another venue with an additional 8 teams...then there is an alternate site.

IMO, I hate adding teams. I just wish that the tournament wasn't ran by a corrupt organization.

Regardless of the seeding argument, which I agree is for another day, not matter what the outcome of this game was, there is an opposing argument that the NCAA can use for future tournaments.

1. UD wins and they have a strong argument for either expanding to include a second venue, therefore increasing revenue. Or quite simply branding the First Four to another market...which doesn't solve the neutrality for good. Either way, there are revenue generation arguments.

2. UD loses and they can argue that there isn't a home court advantage in the tournament. This argument puts the NCAA in a position where they can argue that there isn't a problem with placing teams really close to home, where they can drive up revenue by having teams play within driving distance...increasing overall ticket demand for the participating schools.

In Columbus there are a ton of UD fans that purchased lowers from the other schools that don't travel.

Either way, there will always be some unhappy campers with seeding. But I do agree, that if there were additions, the NCAA could still maintain neutrality.

Last night was a problem for both teams. Lose-lose in the end for UD because they were supposed to win. Boise St. has to travel and play a road game. Unfair to them as well. It was a great game, but unless there are other options, this can very well happen again. Other than it being a great game and UD being a great host site...there wasn't anything really good when it came to the press regarding the actual seeding, home court advantage, or fairness to Boise.
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Old 03-19-2015, 10:38 PM
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What they should do is make the 15 and 16 seed teams play in the first four.
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Old 03-19-2015, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go View Post
Actually, the committee could split our first four into two in Dayton and two at another court. It would mean building another floor and some amount of duplicate costs, but they are made of money.

They also can make the rule, if Dayton is last team in, they get dropped, and if they are the second through fourth team in they get bumped up. We would gain a advantage 3/4 times and get crapped on 1/4.
Problem with this model is that there aren't many markets that will generate the revenue that Dayton does.

Even if there are garbage teams overall, but there is one solid matchup...the place sells for both nights. You split them up, and you are screwed, as you may get the bad 4 teams, low or high seeds.

From what I saw, all tickets offered at Dayton required you to purchase both sessions. If you have to purchase both sessions, the buyers are hamstringed...and that's how you get 10k plus each session.

The bumping argument isn't fair to the UD Basketball team, which is totally separate from the UD Arena/University. You can't penalize the guys because you are a host site. Seeds are seeds, and if they end up in the top 68...they shouldn't be dropped...nor should they move up.
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Old 03-19-2015, 11:33 PM
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Expansion is a bad idea... They really ought to go back to 64 teams.
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Old 03-20-2015, 12:00 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerinChicago View Post
What they should do is make the 15 and 16 seed teams play in the first four.
Then you don't make any money. Dayton has been fortunate to have at least one team in the field of 8 that travels well, has local interest (A10 teams), etc...that alone sells a ticket book with both sessions in it...that's what makes or breaks it.

The proof is in the attendance numbers...with one evening of hoops...with 16 seeds...they drew less than 7k the first year...for the rest of the decade...they had between 7-8k fans each year attend. They went over 10k I believe once. Since they added the lower seeds, they bumped their attendance to well over 10k per night on each session...for 12k more tickets sold prior to the tournament even starting. Then they had the BO gimmick that boosted attendance, _avier boosted it, now Dayton...since they went to 2 nights, they have had some big draw.

Any way you shake it...the addition of the lower seeds boosts total attendance by 12k...figure in tickets, concessions, hotel, TV audience...the money machine talks by hosting more than 16 seeds that no one cares about.
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Old 03-20-2015, 12:10 AM
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Originally Posted by ClevelandFlyer05 View Post
With all of the hubbub over our Flyers playing at home in the First Four and having an advantage,

First off, I generally agree that it's not right that UD got to play this type of a game on its own floor. .
Just being a wise ass but Dayton did not play on its own floor! Dayton's floor was removed and one of the traveling NCAA floors installed. I don't know about the baskets.....hum
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Old 03-20-2015, 12:12 AM
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Baskets are the same...black NCAA padding applied...
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Old 03-20-2015, 12:45 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerinChicago View Post
What they should do is make the 15 and 16 seed teams play in the first four.
Cant do it. There are a specific number of automatic and at-large bids. Thats why the single Opening Round game was created in the first place -- to condense two conference champions into one at-large spot. It happened a second time when conferences split and we have to condense another two conference champions from the weakest conferences and add another #16 vs #16 game to funnel down to the same number of automatic qualifier spots.

The four extra teams added for the two extra (last at-large) games are specific to the at-large teams. The spots being taken by the #16v16 games and #11v11 games are reserved for different reasons and cannot be transposed unless an entire re-write of the NCAA tournament format is created and thats not happening any time soon.
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Old 03-20-2015, 08:51 AM
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Originally Posted by shocka43 View Post
Then you don't make any money. Dayton has been fortunate to have at least one team in the field of 8 that travels well, has local interest (A10 teams), etc...that alone sells a ticket book with both sessions in it...that's what makes or breaks it.

The proof is in the attendance numbers...with one evening of hoops...with 16 seeds...they drew less than 7k the first year...for the rest of the decade...they had between 7-8k fans each year attend. They went over 10k I believe once. Since they added the lower seeds, they bumped their attendance to well over 10k per night on each session...for 12k more tickets sold prior to the tournament even starting. Then they had the BO gimmick that boosted attendance, _avier boosted it, now Dayton...since they went to 2 nights, they have had some big draw.

Any way you shake it...the addition of the lower seeds boosts total attendance by 12k...figure in tickets, concessions, hotel, TV audience...the money machine talks by hosting more than 16 seeds that no one cares about.
If you look at this purely from what a fan sees on TV, the First Four games fare as good or better than of the second round games. The First Four games looked to be fuller than any of the second round games on TV yesterday. There were tons of empty seats right behind the benches on almost every game. Sure they were paid for, but it still "looks" bad. Obviously the UD vs BSU game was full and had high crowd intensity, but isn't that what you want, sold out arenas and full stands with wild crowds?? What you have now are sold out arenas with tons of no shows and companies entertaining clients at an NCAA tournament game.

Another question? Is UD still bidding for second round games, or are they just plugged in for the First Four through 2018?
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Old 03-20-2015, 09:12 AM
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It was a glaring ommission that Dayton did not recieve any second round games with the renewal of the First Four through 2018.
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Old 03-20-2015, 09:25 AM
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I have to believe they could come up with a contingency plan if this was to ever happen again. Pick a neutral site that knows its ways around the NCAA tourney rules and proceedings. It would not be quite the same but it gives the non-Dayton team a fairer shake than playing Dayton in Dayton. Knowing how the NCAA operates, they would never have to use the contingency plan because they will find a way to exclude or bump up UD.
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Old 03-20-2015, 10:48 AM
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Originally Posted by shocka43 View Post
I just wish that the tournament wasn't ran by a corrupt organization.
I love college basketball. The NCAA is gross. I love soccer. FIFA is gross. I wish these organizations would at least pretend to not be so gross, but they can't even do that correctly.
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Old 03-20-2015, 11:38 AM
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Some of you don't realize the importance of home court. I just checked sagarin and if you add home ct advantage to an 11 seed it turns it into the equivalent of a 6 seed. That is a monumental screw job to our opponent. On the other hand you just have the rule if the host of the first four is seeded 42 through 46 make their seed 41 problem solved.
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Old 03-20-2015, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by N2663R View Post
If you look at this purely from what a fan sees on TV, the First Four games fare as good or better than of the second round games. The First Four games looked to be fuller than any of the second round games on TV yesterday. There were tons of empty seats right behind the benches on almost every game. Sure they were paid for, but it still "looks" bad. Obviously the UD vs BSU game was full and had high crowd intensity, but isn't that what you want, sold out arenas and full stands with wild crowds??
That is what you want...but you need to look at what I was responding to.

I was responding to the post that wanted the FF to be 15 and 16 seed games. The attendance numbers haven't been what they have been until they added another session and added 11 seeds. Prior to that, when it was just 4 16 seeds in the 2000's, you had attendance in the 7-8k range. You won't get 10k plus per session if you have games with just 15 and 16 seeds. I won't pay to watch it. Neither will others.

The NCAA had a article the other day that said the First 4 games were a 96% capacity, that it drops to 91% for the 2/3 rounds, and goes back up for the E8 and beyond. The point is that the First 4 games need the 11 seeds to have 10k plus in the seats...they need Dayton to get that...as other markets won't get it done.

You are always going to have vacant seats. UD Arena fills up because of the fans in the area and how the seats are distributed. The playing teams pretty much each get a section. And UD does a good job of farming out the unused seats that the schools can't fill. You always see lowers released a few days before the games. Just as I am sitting in the Oklahoma section tonight with many others from UD...UD fans will also be in the Providence section tonight too.

The main point I have is that there needs to be a fix so this doesn't happen again...for the fairness of both teams...and it doesn't include a restructuring of the First 4, but the entire process and the possibility of some minor expansion to include another facility.
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Old 03-20-2015, 12:16 PM
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If the NCAA can say they will jiggle BYU's seeding to get them out of playing on Sunday I think they can jiggle UD's seeding to avoid hosing a poor schlub 11 seed.
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Old 03-20-2015, 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
Some of you don't realize the importance of home court. I just checked sagarin and if you add home ct advantage to an 11 seed it turns it into the equivalent of a 6 seed. That is a monumental screw job to our opponent. On the other hand you just have the rule if the host of the first four is seeded 42 through 46 make their seed 41 problem solved.
Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
If the NCAA can say they will jiggle BYU's seeding to get them out of playing on Sunday I think they can jiggle UD's seeding to avoid hosing a poor schlub 11 seed.
This will be no different than the complaints about UCLA this year, if the First Four was at Pauley Pavilion(?). "They shouldn't just get a slot in the Round of 64, they were the last at-large! BCS schools shouldn't get privilege!"

If Dayton is considered the last-team in, and you just "bump" them 4 slots, then you are doing a dis-service to the tournament that states "last 4 at-large teams play for 2 Roudn of 64 slots".

Edit: Oh, and the moving around for BYU is a lousy argument for this. You are aware that there are 2 days for the "second round" and 2 days for "third round" games, so it's not like we are moving mountains to accomodate BYU. Just changing which day they play.
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Old 03-20-2015, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
This will be no different than the complaints about UCLA this year, if the First Four was at Pauley Pavilion(?). "They shouldn't just get a slot in the Round of 64, they were the last at-large! BCS schools shouldn't get privilege!"

If Dayton is considered the last-team in, and you just "bump" them 4 slots, then you are doing a dis-service to the tournament that states "last 4 at-large teams play for 2 Roudn of 64 slots".

Edit: Oh, and the moving around for BYU is a lousy argument for this. You are aware that there are 2 days for the "second round" and 2 days for "third round" games, so it's not like we are moving mountains to accomodate BYU. Just changing which day they play.
I am surprised you are taking this stance Figgie. You, more than anyone on this board, must appreciate that an algorithms like Sagarin, or KenPom have uncertainty associated with them. By that I mean that if the algorithm says UD has a rating of 80 points that is an estimate with uncertainty. I don't know what that uncertainty is but the difference between 46th and 41st is just .25 of a point! I doubt those algorithms are more accurate than that. Now consider the uncertainty of the selection committee process! Do you think it is less than a quarter of a point? All I am saying is that moving us up AT MOST 4 spots is well within the uncertainty of the Selection committee's antics.

If you move BYU to another day by definition you are changing their slot at least one spot. I believe that there are other reasons that they tweak where people go. Don't they try to avoid various types of matches in the first round?
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Old 03-20-2015, 08:25 PM
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What UDEE79 says: If they can apply 'eye test' to come up with UCLA, then they can come up with 'common sense' test and move Dayton to 'non 1st four' eleven/twelve seed. Jesus!

Not even saying write it in as a rule: Just effing use the latitude to DO IT!

Those people were morons.

Last edited by forego1; 03-20-2015 at 08:36 PM..
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Old 03-20-2015, 10:44 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
...Not even saying write it in as a rule: Just effing use the latitude to DO IT!...
There isn't a written rule to favor the big conferences but they do that every year!
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Old 03-21-2015, 12:43 PM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
I am surprised you are taking this stance Figgie. You, more than anyone on this board, must appreciate that an algorithms like Sagarin, or KenPom have uncertainty associated with them. By that I mean that if the algorithm says UD has a rating of 80 points that is an estimate with uncertainty. I don't know what that uncertainty is but the difference between 46th and 41st is just .25 of a point! I doubt those algorithms are more accurate than that. Now consider the uncertainty of the selection committee process! Do you think it is less than a quarter of a point? All I am saying is that moving us up AT MOST 4 spots is well within the uncertainty of the Selection committee's antics.
The NCAA has stated that the First Four games for seeds 11/12 are for the 4 last at-larges. Now, how to determine those is subjective by the committee, and people will argue. If they decide to move Dayton out of the First Four, it goes against their "rules". It could be .04 for all I care, it does a disservice to the rules of bracket making.

Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
If you move BYU to another day by definition you are changing their slot at least one spot. I believe that there are other reasons that they tweak where people go. Don't they try to avoid various types of matches in the first round?
You need to go back and read Chris R's dissertation on the way the bracket is built. They rank the teams, then place them in a region, then decide where they are going to play. After the bracket is made, then they decide on when teams play. Remember, we didn't know until late on Sunday what time our games would be played this week. So, they place BYU somewhere in the bracket, then when they determine days/times, they take the BYU situation into account and put them somewhere.

Compeletely different situations.
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Old 03-21-2015, 01:04 PM
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Old 03-21-2015, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
The NCAA has stated that the First Four games for seeds 11/12 are for the 4 last at-larges. Now, how to determine those is subjective by the committee, and people will argue. If they decide to move Dayton out of the First Four, it goes against their "rules". It could be .04 for all I care, it does a disservice to the rules of bracket making.



You need to go back and read Chris R's dissertation on the way the bracket is built. They rank the teams, then place them in a region, then decide where they are going to play. After the bracket is made, then they decide on when teams play. Remember, we didn't know until late on Sunday what time our games would be played this week. So, they place BYU somewhere in the bracket, then when they determine days/times, they take the BYU situation into account and put them somewhere.

Compeletely different situations.
I am fine with changing the written rule. Write it down that you will move someone to avoid giving them a home game in the first 4.

Thanks for clarifying that that they do not change who they are playing just when and where then its not the same. But aren't there rules that say conference members don't play each other in the first round and things like that? Are those actual written rules or not?
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Old 03-21-2015, 03:10 PM
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UDEE79, Know that this will only solve the most egregious problem. How about Wright State, Cincinnati, OSU or ~Xavier*; is it unfair to have to play them in the First Four? Providence and Oklahoma fans are complaining about UD's seeding in Columbus. Should there be a 100 mi exclusion circle around UD Arena to it is not too much of an advantage?

I say the committee needs to close its eyes and order the teams. Then and only then, work on getting fair venues. Dayton is the only site for First Four so there is nothing you can do.

*Unfair to Xavier that is, UD fans hate them so much that they have a quasi away game here.
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Old 03-21-2015, 03:20 PM
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The minute "gathering steam" and "eye test" are the important factors, all objectivity is out the window. Flyers will eliminate the problem by being nowhere near the FF in the future, program only getting stronger. We again this year are the most talked about team in the Tourney. NCAA screwed up, we play where we are told. Snobbish Friars got hammered, gotta love it.
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Old 03-21-2015, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go View Post
UDEE79, Know that this will only solve the most egregious problem. How about Wright State, Cincinnati, OSU or ~Xavier*; is it unfair to have to play them in the First Four? Providence and Oklahoma fans are complaining about UD's seeding in Columbus. Should there be a 100 mi exclusion circle around UD Arena to it is not too much of an advantage?

I say the committee needs to close its eyes and order the teams. Then and only then, work on getting fair venues. Dayton is the only site for First Four so there is nothing you can do.

*Unfair to Xavier that is, UD fans hate them so much that they have a quasi away game here.
Leave it as is, it works out for us. Its a huge screw job for whomever has to play us. Its not our job to worry about fairness, its the committees job.
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Old 03-22-2015, 09:21 AM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
I am fine with changing the written rule. Write it down that you will move someone to avoid giving them a home game in the first 4.
Hey, if the feel that it was a bad decision, and they decide to change it, that's cool with me. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me that they add a site after the current contract is up. Now, after they get lackluster support from that site (unless it's a "virtual home game" for some other team), they may realize that it doesn't matter if UD is in the First Four in Dayton, because (1) UD would show up anywhere, and (2) they want the ticket money.

Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
Thanks for clarifying that that they do not change who they are playing just when and where then its not the same. But aren't there rules that say conference members don't play each other in the first round and things like that? Are those actual written rules or not?
I believe those rules are written in stone. NCAA 2014-15 Procedures That lists those rules, but the BYU situtation I couldn't find.
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