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View Poll Results: Which team should be more safely in the NCAA?
Team A 6 13.33%
Team B 39 86.67%
Voters: 45. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 03-06-2014, 09:00 AM
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Blind Resume Poll

Blind Resume
============
Team A
RPI 44 / SOS 39
Non Conf RPI 58 / SOS 74
Record 20-10 / 10-7 conf / 9-3 Non Conf
Top 25: 2-2
Top 50: 3-4
Top 100:8-7
Losses(101-200):9-3
Road/Neutral: 5-9
Best Wins: 7,15,46


Team B
RPI 43 / SOS 55
Non Conf RPI 47 / SOS 105
Record 21-9 / 9-6 conf / 12-3 Non Conf
Top 25: 3-2
Top 50: 4-5
Top 100:8-6
Losses(101-200):9-3
Road/Neutral: 9-5
Best wins: 13,22,24,30

Last edited by UD90; 03-06-2014 at 09:11 AM..
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  #2  
Old 03-06-2014, 09:04 AM
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Well, Team B is not 22-11 yet there's your first problem.
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Old 03-06-2014, 09:08 AM
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Dayton in, X out.
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Old 03-06-2014, 09:09 AM
UACFlyer UACFlyer is offline
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Don't know...but,...

The A10 is not going to place 7 teams in the Dance, or 6. Maybe not even 5 or 4.

But we know that SLU, VCU and SJU are locks. That puts UD in a fight with four other teams for one or two spots.

What may help us greatly if we don't screw up the UR game andd/or play poorly in the A10 tournament is our recent play. Doesn't the Committee focus on a team's last 10 games?

If so, we could be in very good shape, possibly winning 9 of our last 10 in the regular season. Beating UR and winning two in the A10 should do it. But, we are bunched with a pretty good group of other schools.

And as we all know, the Committee is quite unpredictable and often stiffs schools.
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Old 03-06-2014, 09:12 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Well, Team B is not 22-11 yet there's your first problem.
Originally was using the rpiforecast numbers which sway it in Team B's direction even further. Corrected it.
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Old 03-06-2014, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
The A10 is not going to place 7 teams in the Dance, or 6. Maybe not even 5 or 4.
I disagree, IMO 6 a10 teams are going to get in as long as any of those 6, including UD, don't stumble down this final stretch.

And what if Richmond wins tonight, then loses to UD, but then goes on a tear in the a10 tournament? Do they get an at large too? Is 7 or 8(if a dark horse wins the a10 tourney)a10 bids a real possibility?

Last edited by ud2; 03-06-2014 at 09:50 AM..
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  #7  
Old 03-06-2014, 09:56 AM
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If UD and the 5th place A10 team win their first A10 tourney games (and UD beats Richmond), the top 6 A10 teams will all dance, mark it down. It's not about conference ties, it's about individual seasons.
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Old 03-06-2014, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
The A10 is not going to place 7 teams in the Dance, or 6. Maybe not even 5 or 4.

But we know that SLU, VCU and SJU are locks. That puts UD in a fight with four other teams for one or two spots.

What may help us greatly if we don't screw up the UR game andd/or play poorly in the A10 tournament is our recent play. Doesn't the Committee focus on a team's last 10 games?

If so, we could be in very good shape, possibly winning 9 of our last 10 in the regular season. Beating UR and winning two in the A10 should do it. But, we are bunched with a pretty good group of other schools.

And as we all know, the Committee is quite unpredictable and often stiffs schools.
UACFlyer, your posts are usually pretty rational, but I have no clue how you derive this notion that the A10 may only get 4 bids. I see a minimum of 5 and most probably 6 if UD beats Richmond. We're not fighting UMass & GW for the A10's allocation of bids to the NCAA. We're fighting Minn, Providence, Tenn, Missouri, and probably Pitt. And any REAL objective view has UD above all/most of these teams.
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Old 03-06-2014, 10:37 AM
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Thank you,..

Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
UACFlyer, your posts are usually pretty rational, but I have no clue how you derive this notion that the A10 may only get 4 bids. I see a minimum of 5 and most probably 6 if UD beats Richmond. We're not fighting UMass & GW for the A10's allocation of bids to the NCAA. We're fighting Minn, Providence, Tenn, Missouri, and probably Pitt. And any REAL objective view has UD above all/most of these teams.
Springboro, I'm glad you consider my posts rational (usually). I was just expressing an opinion that I hope is wrong.

Nonetheless, let's revisit this topic after selection Sunday. You see a minimum of five...I see a maximum of five. So, if it's five I suppose we draw. If it's it six you win...if it's four I win.

Just opinion,....I think it would be absolutely great for the A10 to land five or six teams in the Dance...especially if the BE lands fewer spots.

What we've got to do now is take care of business. There are games to be won....missteps are costly at this stage. The most important game of our season is the "next" game.
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Old 03-06-2014, 10:42 AM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
Springboro, I'm glad you consider my posts rational (usually). I was just expressing an opinion that I hope is wrong.

Nonetheless, let's revisit this topic after selection Sunday. You see a minimum of five...I see a maximum of five. So, if it's five I suppose we draw. If it's it six you win...if it's four I win.

Just opinion,....I think it would be absolutely great for the A10 to land five or six teams in the Dance...especially if the BE lands fewer spots.

What we've got to do now is take care of business. There are games to be won....missteps are costly at this stage. The most important game of our season is the "next" game.
I'll take some of that action too. If Dayton beats Richmond, can I double down? And if we advance to the quarterfinals, I'll put up my first and second born saying the A10 gets 6 bids.
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  #11  
Old 03-06-2014, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
The A10 is not going to place 7 teams in the Dance, or 6. Maybe not even 5 or 4....
I'll save this quote. If Dayton wins the next two there will be 6 unless they stiff GW.
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Old 03-06-2014, 11:22 AM
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And I will eat humble pie,...

Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I'll save this quote. If Dayton wins the next two there will be 6 unless they stiff GW.
...and I'll enjoy every mouthful.

Five or six A10 teams in the Dance would be magnificent. I hope it happens.

By the way, what's the A10 past best in the Dance? Four? Five? Wouldn't six be a record, even five?
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Old 03-06-2014, 11:32 AM
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Six would indeed be a record. Conference has had 5 teams in before in '97, '98, and last year.
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Old 03-06-2014, 02:02 PM
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I ask this in seriousness - of the 4 people who chose Team A was it because there was an attribute that looked better or were you just having fun? I see two items that could sway someone toward Team A - Beating #7 vs. #13 and SOS.
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Old 03-06-2014, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
If UD and the 5th place A10 team win their first A10 tourney games (and UD beats Richmond), the top 6 A10 teams will all dance, mark it down. It's not about conference ties, it's about individual seasons.
Just because this is the NCAA...I'd still like to see the Flyers make it to the semi's; do that and I think they are viewed in the end as one of the top 4 teams in the A10. I still think the best that the A10 does is 5 teams, not 6 and 4 seems to be a very realistic/probable number. UD definitely controls destiny. Win Saturday, that puts them in the quarters, win again, in the Semi's. That's probably good enough. Of course making the finals means they likely stay out of the 8/9 or 7/10 game in the dance.
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Old 03-06-2014, 05:59 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
The A10 is not going to place 7 teams in the Dance, or 6. Maybe not even 5 or 4.
????? I'm speechless.
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Old 03-06-2014, 06:03 PM
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I think record against the top 25 and the road/neutral record put team B ahead. Other than that it's a dead heat.
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Old 03-06-2014, 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by The Gem View Post
I think record against the top 25 and the road/neutral record put team B ahead. Other than that it's a dead heat.
Then it's not really a dead heat because road/neutral records are a major criteria in the selection process.
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Old 03-06-2014, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Then it's not really a dead heat because road/neutral records are a major criteria in the selection process.

Right. That's why I voted for team B. I gave team A one point for the Non Conf RPI 58 / SOS 74 and team B two points for top 25 record and road/neutral record. Even if Team A had a second point in another category, I would still give Team B the nod as those should be weighted more.
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Old 03-06-2014, 07:08 PM
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I think it's safe to assume that Team A voters were picking to play devil's advocate. I'd like to hear Lunardi's perspective.
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Old 03-06-2014, 07:49 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan67 View Post
Just because this is the NCAA...I'd still like to see the Flyers make it to the semi's; do that and I think they are viewed in the end as one of the top 4 teams in the A10. I still think the best that the A10 does is 5 teams, not 6 and 4 seems to be a very realistic/probable number. UD definitely controls destiny. Win Saturday, that puts them in the quarters, win again, in the Semi's. That's probably good enough. Of course making the finals means they likely stay out of the 8/9 or 7/10 game in the dance.
I share the view about the Semis. A win over Richmond Saturday and then a trip to the Quarters should remove all doubts. Why? Because, as a likely 5 or 6 seed in the A10 Tourney, a trip to the Semis would include a win over #3 or #4.

Where I disagree is about a Saturday win putting them into the quarters (unless you're just assuming the Rnd 1 win, longtime, which would not be a good idea). For this to happen (grabbing the #4 seed and a Rnd 1 bye) 2 of the 3 things below would have to happen. And if VCU is one of those who loses this weekend, I have no idea how the 4,5, and 6 seeds would work out. I guess all 3 things could happen resulting in a 4-way tie at 10-6. But here are the relevant games:

GW loses @ Fordham
UMass loses to SLU
VCU loses both @ Richmond (tonight) and to St. Bonaventure (Saturday)

If SLU gets untracked then UMass could well go down. But I think that would leave us seed #5, though, with both GW and VCU likely to hit the 11-win mark. So we'd be in the 4/5 game in the Quarters "knowing" that if we win we wouldn't have to beat #1 in order to make the case for the Dance.
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Old 03-08-2014, 04:28 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I'll save this quote. If Dayton wins the next two there will be 6 unless they stiff GW.
Do it. Six is pretty realistic. Four seems like a lock. Five is probably a good bet even. Kind of hard to keep out schools with a top 40 RPI and top 75 SOS, which 6 A-10 teams have very realistic chances of.
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