Bracketology

[UDFlyer23]

Lunardi's updated seed list can be found on his Twitter:

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi?ref_...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

New seed list thru Sunday (CAP=AQ): 01-UK, 02-MD, 03-MichSt, 04-KU, 05-DUKE, 06-NOVA, 07-IowaSt, 08-Unc, 09-Okla, 10-UVa, 11-Purd, 12-ZAG,13-Vandy, 14-Xavier, 15-CINCY, 16-Oregon, 17-Cuse, 18-Lville, 19-Miami, 20-ZONA, 21-TexA&M, 22-Baylor, 23-Wvu, 24-Butler, 25-Prov, 26-Utah, 27-Conn, 28-DAYTON, 29-NDame, 30-Indiana, 31-Cal, 32-GWash, 33-Iowa, 34-Gtown, 35-SDSU, 36-Pitt, 37-VALPO, 38-Mich, 39-LSU, 40-Fla, 41-NoIowa, 42-Texas, 43-WICHST, 44-Wisc.

LAST IN: 45-Vcu, 46-SoCar, 47-FlaSt, 48-SoCal.
FIRST OUT: Ucla, Tulsa, RIsland, OreSt.
NEXT OUT: Davidson, Colorado, Byu, NCSt.
OTHERS: Richmond, Wake, Marq, Unlv, Boise, NMexico, Evansville, AzSt.

Lunardi has us as the last 7 seed and predicts us to be the Automatic Qualifier from the A10.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[ud69]

Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 Lunardi's updated seed list can be found on his Twitter: https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi?ref_...Ctwgr%5Eauthor New seed list thru Sunday (CAP=AQ): 01-UK, 02-MD, 03-MichSt, 04-KU, 05-DUKE, 06-NOVA, 07-IowaSt, 08-Unc, 09-Okla, 10-UVa, 11-Purd, 12-ZAG,13-Vandy, 14-Xavier, 15-CINCY, 16-Oregon, 17-Cuse, 18-Lville, 19-Miami, 20-ZONA, 21-TexA&M, 22-Baylor, 23-Wvu, 24-Butler, 25-Prov, 26-Utah, 27-Conn, 28-DAYTON, 29-NDame, 30-Indiana, 31-Cal, 32-GWash, 33-Iowa, 34-Gtown, 35-SDSU, 36-Pitt, 37-VALPO, 38-Mich, 39-LSU, 40-Fla, 41-NoIowa, 42-Texas, 43-WICHST, 44-Wisc. LAST IN: 45-Vcu, 46-SoCar, 47-FlaSt, 48-SoCal. FIRST OUT: Ucla, Tulsa, RIsland, OreSt. NEXT OUT: Davidson, Colorado, Byu, NCSt. OTHERS: Richmond, Wake, Marq, Unlv, Boise, NMexico, Evansville, AzSt. Lunardi has us as the last 7 seed and predicts us to be the Automatic Qualifier from the A10.

And Monmouth has beaten his 29th team (ND), his 48th team (USC) and his first team out (UCLA) - and nary a mention. But Valpo is in? Say it ain't so Joe.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[ruechalgrin]

Nice to see Dayton, GW, and VCU all in. All nice to see RI, Davidson, Richmond all in first 9 out. Pretty strong start for the A-10.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[mikeymo85]

Originally Posted by ud69 And Monmouth has beaten his 29th team (ND), his 48th team (USC) and his first team out (UCLA) - and nary a mention. But Valpo is in? Say it ain't so Joe.

Probably has them with the auto bid from their conference.

[ud69]

Originally Posted by mikeymo85 Probably has them with the auto bid from their conference.

Agreed - and AQ's are noted by Lunardi in Caps. Still, they should be among his top 50.

[NorthwestFlyer]

New Bracketology is out (FWIW - but fun to think about). A10 with 3 in and couple on the bubble. We are projected as a 7 seed, which is better than and 8 or 9. Win tomorrow and let's see if we can get into the 6 seed.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[ud2]

Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer New Bracketology is out (FWIW - but fun to think about). A10 with 3 in and couple on the bubble. We are projected as a 7 seed, which is better than and 8 or 9. Win tomorrow and let's see if we can get into the 6 seed. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

UD did a heck of a job with the buy games if this holds...Chattanooga, W&M, and North Florida all in.

[jerseyflyer09]

The only potential I see with the resume is the lack of true road tests. Vandy is the only road non-con (which is why I think it would be a HUGE win). Moreover, the majority of our tougher A10 games are home. That's a double edged sword. It's great to get GW and VCU at home, but the VCU road win basically got us in last year. We go to URI and Richmond though so those I'm sure will become crucial as well.

I don't feel great about Vandy but it's an enormous game so I hope I'm wrong.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[ud2]

The OOC SOS appears to be much better this year, just quickly, in the OOC portion, I counted 8 games vs. teams rated #119 or better, last year there were only 5 that matched that criteria.

I suppose that this schedule has the potential to garner the best SOS in quite a while, maybe ever, or at least as far back as 1993-1994, which is as far back as I have found records for.

33 is the number to beat. The SOS in 2007-2008 and 2009-2010 was 33.



Season Record RPI Rank SOS Rank
2014-2015 22-6 0.5908 29 0.5149 122
2013-2014 23-10 0.5837 43 0.5539 61
2012-2013 17-14 0.5287 114 0.5370 95
2011-2012 20-12 0.5546 81 0.5425 68
2010-2011 22-13 0.5608 70 0.5455 69
2009-2010 20-12 0.5769 54 0.5661 33
2008-2009 26-7 0.6037 27 0.5319 95
2007-2008 21-10 0.5906 32 0.5645 33
2006-2007 19-12 0.5573 75 0.5431 76
2005-2006 13-17 0.4835 183 0.5183 112
2004-2005 18-11 0.5205 126 0.4945 162
2003-2004 24-8 0.5864 40 0.5319 84
2002-2003 24-5 0.6212 13 0.5525 54
2001-2002 20-10 0.5599 62 0.5243 93
2000-2001 19-12 0.5538 72 0.5341 83
1999-2000 22-8 0.5736 43 0.5204 108
1998-1999 11-17 0.4933 157 0.5268 95
1997-1998 20-11 0.5594 59 0.5309 84
1996-1997 13-14 0.4863 172 0.4879 161
1995-1996 15-14 0.4833 177 0.4720 202
1994-1995 7-20 0.4635 194 0.5316 77
1993-1994 5-21 0.4581 208 0.5467 62

[CraSch]

per the Bracketology, Vandy is a 5 seed, so a road win at their house would be veeeery nice.

[Flyer 86]

i'm thinking personally we should be ranked between 23 and 30 and then ....
BOOM. There's 28.

Glad to see my skills haven't slipped

[ud2]

Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer New Bracketology is out (FWIW - but fun to think about). A10 with 3 in and couple on the bubble. We are projected as a 7 seed, which is better than and 8 or 9. Win tomorrow and let's see if we can get into the 6 seed. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

When was the last time UD played UCLA? The triple OT game in 1974?

[UDGutter2]

Do we want a 6 seed, we've seen what 11s can do, haven't we?

[Flyer 86]

With this win and a steady course... no reason not be in the 5 to 8 range.

Is 6 or 7 most ideal? I know 8 or 9 arent?

[ud2]

Yes, the 1974 game was the last game vs. UCLA. Not to put a damper on the Vandy win, but unfortunately, UD is 0-4 lifetime vs. UCLA. I was just curious about the UD/UCLA history. It would be nice to get to 1-4 against them.

UCLA 0-4

Dec 31, 1954 MSG ECAC(Holiday Festival) L 92 104 12,135
Mar 25, 1967 Freedom Hall NCAA L 64 79 18,892
Jan 2, 1971 Pauley Pavilion L 82 106 12,543
Mar 14, 1974 McKale Center(Tucson, Arizona) 3ot NCAA L 100 111 13,314

[flyerfanatic86]

Dream big. Let's shoot for a 3-4 seed. Are any of our remaining games unwinnable? It's not likely, but not impossible.

[longtimefan]

A 6 seed would be better than a 7. 6 would eventually play the 3 seed while 7 would play the 2 seed. 8 or 9 plays the 1 seed. I would rather be 10 or 11 than 8 or 9. 6 is actually ideal. The winner of 4/5 would play 1, while the winner of 6/3 would play 2. The better seed gives you an easier early game, bit I would prefer to avoid the #1 seed for as long as possible.

[FlyingArrow]

Be the 1 seed. Avoid 1 seeds until the Final 4.

[UDFlyer23]

Lunardi's updated seed list can be found on his Twitter:

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi?ref_...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

New seed list thru Sunday (CAP=AQ): 01-MICHST, 02-OKLA, 03-Kansas, 04-UK, 05-Duke, 06-IowaSt, 07-Md, 08-UVA, 09-Purdue, 10-Xavier, 11-NOVA, 12-Unc,13-Lville, 14-Miami, 15-Wvu, 16-Baylor, 17-Butler, 18-Prov, 19-ZONA, 20-CINCY, 21-Oregon, 22-Vandy, 23-TexA&M, 24-ZAGA, 25-Pitt, 26-Conn, 27-NDame, 28-DAYTON, 29-GWash, 30-Iowa, 31-Ucla, 32-Gtown, 33-Texas, 34-Utah, 35-Ind, 36-Cuse, 37-Fla, 38-SoCar, 39-SoCal, 40-FlaState, 41-Wisc, 42-Mich, 43-VALPO

LAST IN: 44-Cal, 45-Vcu, 46-WICHITA, 47-Unlv
FIRST OUT: Marquette, Arizona St, Tulsa, Richmond
NEXT OUT: NoIowa, Colorado, OregonSt, NMexico

Lunardi has us as the last 7 seed and predicts us to be the Automatic Qualifier from the A10, same as last time so it appears our big win at Vandy and loss at home is a wash.

I really wish we played on two games this week. With only one game on against an RPI 300+ opponent we may take a bit of a dip in the RPI and certainly won't be moving up the rankings at all. In fact Miami and Arkansas are both RPI anchors as well so it's very important we take care of business and hope for a strong start in the A10.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[CE80]

Don't get hung up on our own RPI. RPI of who you beat and who you lost to matters more. If the Flyers RPI drops to the point it is a concern, it will be because they lost to some cr*ppy teams. In that case, it is those losses that will keep them out, not their RPI.

Florida with an RPI rank of 5 is not sitting good with a 6-3 record but 0-3 against the top 50.
Monmouth with an RPI rank of 34 and an overall record of 6-3 is in better shape because of their record of 3-2 against the top 50.

[hawkoooo]

Disagree that Ark is PTI "anchor." They are currently 138 and just had a very nice win over Evansville. They have another chance for a quality win Saturday against Mercer.

[flyerfanatic86]

I'd rather win the Vandy game and lose to Chattanooga than vice versa. The win will likely be given greater weight than the loss at the end of the season.

[UDFlyer23]

Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86 I'd rather when the Vandy game and lose to Chattanooga than vice versa. The win will likely be given greater weight than the loss at the end of the season.

Agreed. When looking at resumes in March our win at Vandy will always be talked about and the committee has traditionally put a strong emphasis on road wins, especially if it's against an RPI top 50. As long as Chattanooga doesn't dip below 150 in the RPI it's not a bad loss and an afterthought.

[TA111]

Originally Posted by CE80 Don't get hung up on our own RPI. RPI of who you beat and who you lost to matters more. If the Flyers RPI drops to the point it is a concern, it will be because they lost to some cr*ppy teams. In that case, it is those losses that will keep them out, not their RPI. Florida with an RPI rank of 5 is not sitting good with a 6-3 record but 0-3 against the top 50. Monmouth with an RPI rank of 34 and an overall record of 6-3 is in better shape because of their record of 3-2 against the top 50.

Exactly, it's not your RPI that's important, it's your opponent's RPI that is important. Florida is a good example. They have a good RPI because they have played several strong RPI teams, but they have lost to all of them. Unless they win some of their tougher games they won't get in the tourney.

[longtimefan]

Two seasons ago the win against a ranked St Louis team on the road helped get us in. Last season our win against a ranked VCU team on the road got us in. This year the Vandy win will be a huge factor.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[UDFlyer23]

Originally Posted by longtimefan Two seasons ago the win against a ranked St Louis team on the road helped get us in. Last season our win against a ranked VCU team on the road got us in. This year the Vandy win will be a huge factor.

Which is all the more important because all of our games against the top of the A10 are at home this year. Need to take care of business on the road in conference.

FWIW, ESPN Power Rankings have us at 36 with only 1 Top 25 vote
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask.../powerrankings

Sports Illustrated has us at 24
http://www.si.com/college-basketball...arolina-kansas

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 Agreed. When looking at resumes in March our win at Vandy will always be talked about and the committee has traditionally put a strong emphasis on road wins, especially if it's against an RPI top 50. As long as Chattanooga doesn't dip below 150 in the RPI it's not a bad loss and an afterthought.

Chattanooga could sneak into the top 50 RPI, but probably in the 50-90 range. It is not a bad loss at all.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Chattanooga.html

[UD94]

Dayton a 5 seed (yay!) playing in Spokane (boo!)

Dayton opponents in the field:

Xavier (2)
Iowa (7)
Alabama (8)
Chattanooga (9)
Monmouth (9)
Vanderbilt (10)
North Florida (16)

George Washington (5)

Saint Joseph's and Richmond in First Four Out.


Fun fact: all 8 teams from the Advocare Invitational are projected to make the field...amazing.


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

	George Washington GEORGE WASHINGTON Students choose from two distinct GW campuses — Foggy Bottom and Mount Vernon. Both are located in historic and prestigious Northwest Washington, DC residential neighborhoods. With 9,700 undergraduate students, GW was founded almost 200 years ago and is named after the first President of the United States. GW stands as one of the nation's premier academic institutions with dozens of famous political, social, science, liberal arts, medical and professional graduates to its credit. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Colonials.

[CE80]

Amazing to see Alabama on anybody's list after watching our game with them. Kudos to Avery Johnson.

[longtimefan]

Originally Posted by CE80 Amazing to see Alabama on anybody's list after watching our game with them. Kudos to Avery Johnson.

Some would say the same thing about us after our game against "that team down south."

[xubrew]

Originally Posted by CE80 Amazing to see Alabama on anybody's list after watching our game with them. Kudos to Avery Johnson.

They lost their best player for the season just last week too, which makes it all that much more impressive.

[BRob2Perryman3]

Originally Posted by xubrew They lost their best player for the season just last week too, which makes it all that much more impressive.

We've been playing without our best player all year

[ud2]

Stumbled across this bracketology...UD is a 7 seed vs. Boise State.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-.../story/1734094


GW, North Florida, Chattanooga, Vandy, Iowa, and Monmouth all in. William and Mary was not picked, James Madison from the CAA was picked.

Southern Cal and ND, who UD did not play, but who were in Orlando, also made it in.

Davidson last four out. Alabama in the next four out.

The AAC with 3 teams, Cincinnati, UConn, and Tulsa.

Northwestern earns its first bid.

I did not see a team from the Ohio Valley Conference, that seems like an omission.

[longtimefan]

Originally Posted by ud2 Stumbled across this bracketology...UD is a 7 seed vs. Boise State. http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-.../story/1734094 GW, North Florida, Chattanooga, Vandy, Iowa, and Monmouth all in. William and Mary was not picked, James Madison from the CAA was picked. Southern Cal and ND, who UD did not play, but who were in Orlando, also made it in. Davidson last four out. Alabama in the next four out. The AAC with 3 teams, Cincinnati, UConn, and Tulsa. Northwestern earns its first bid. I did not see a team from the Ohio Valley Conference, that seems like an omission.

Big East with five teams. A-10 with two.

[1903 Flyer]

Originally Posted by longtimefan Big East with five teams. A-10 with two.

I don't believe there's that great a difference between the top half of either league, however the way we lost in Orlando and GW losing to DePaul by 20 certainly doesn't help the A10's credibility.

[Santa Claus]

Merry
Christmas

[ud2]

Originally Posted by longtimefan Big East with five teams. A-10 with two.

I'm very skeptical of Seton Hall...St. Joe's and Richmond were in CBS' first four out I think...Rhode Island is down this year because of the Matthews injury...Davidson is on the bubble too...CBS had UConn out also, so 2 bids for the AAC: Cincy and Tulsa.

Also, CBS has UD as a 5 seed...best seed since OP's last year...the 7 seed from vegasinsider.com seemed like it should have been better IMO.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[Catman94]

Originally Posted by ud2 I'm very skeptical of Seton Hall...St. Joe's and Richmond were in CBS' first four out I think...Rhode Island is down this year because of the Matthews injury...Davidson is on the bubble too...CBS had UConn out also, so 2 bids for the AAC: Cincy and Tulsa. Also, CBS has UD as a 5 seed...best seed since OP's last year...the 7 seed from vegasinsider.com seemed like it should have been better IMO.

Still a lot of volatility for us (and rest of A-10). We have a lot of good wins and should have a lot of Top50 RPI wins at year end but difficult to have an idea of how many at this point. It would help to have other A-10 teams in Top 50 with Top50 OOC wins. Right now, GW is the only one, but if Davidson can beat Cal tomorrow or Richmond Tuesday can beat Texas Tech. cannibalizing and separation won't be as needed by the other teams and our seeding could improve.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[UD62]

Originally Posted by 1903 Flyer I don't believe there's that great a difference between the top half of either league, however the way we lost in Orlando and GW losing to DePaul by 20 certainly doesn't help the A10's credibility.

When our two top teams lose by 29 and 20 to the first and worst of the NBE, I suggest we refrain from comparing us to the NBE until we have something to talk about. They have 5 possible and we have 2 for a reason, and so far our two don't compare favorably to their top clubs.

[Sea Bass]

Palm's latest has the Flyers a 4 seed. Of course it all means little at this point.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[Catman94]

Originally Posted by Sea Bass Palm's latest has the Flyers a 4 seed. Of course it all means little at this point. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Wins against 5,9, and two 11 seeds (even William & Mary at 14 seed)
Losses against a 1 & 7 seed

Looking good. Take care of business in conference and we can have the best seed in a long time...last time I remember having a good seed, the Purnell led Flyers lost to Tulsa though.

[College B-Ball Fan]

Originally Posted by Catman94 Wins against 5,9, and two 11 seeds (even William & Mary at 14 seed) Losses against a 1 & 7 seed Looking good. Take care of business in conference and we can have the best seed in a long time...last time I remember having a good seed, the Purnell led Flyers lost to Tulsa though.

I was there and should have stayed home. Ouch!

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by Catman94 Wins against 5,9, and two 11 seeds (even William & Mary at 14 seed) Losses against a 1 & 7 seed Looking good. Take care of business in conference and we can have the best seed in a long time...last time I remember having a good seed, the Purnell led Flyers lost to Tulsa though.

Palm is spot-on if the season ended today. Dayton definitely has one of the best 10-15 resumes in the country as of today.

But Arknasas (not an easy game) and a weak A-10 loom. It will be difficult to improve the resume the remainder of the year as possibly no more top 50 games.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by College B-Ball Fan I was there and should have stayed home. Ouch!

That game was played in Spokane, Washington, I watched on tv. I kept waiting for UD, as the team with the much better seed, to come back and take the lead and win the game, but it never happened. Frustrating and depressing loss. Sucks when you are the victim of March Madness.

What is Spokane like? I've never been there.

AAC with 1 bid, UConn, Cincy dropped out...St. Joe's with a 9 seed, that's surprising to me.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by Catman94 ...last time I remember having a good seed, the Purnell led Flyers lost to Tulsa though.

I couldn't remember how Tulsa did in the next game...Tulsa lost 61-60 to 5 seed Wisconsin in the next game...Tulsa was a good team.

[NCkevi]

Originally Posted by Catman94 Looking good. Take care of business in conference and we can have the best seed in a long time...last time I remember having a good seed, the Purnell led Flyers lost to Tulsa though.

I would take BG over Purnell in a post season game and Miller over BG
OP can rebuild a program but once he gets the program to the post season most nights he couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag

[UDBrian]

I think that matchups are more important than seeds. Most teams have a weakness and you hope not to play a team that can exploit that weakness.

With that being said what do hope UD is seeded? #1 seed isn't a viable option this year but that is the ultimate goal.

[springborofan]

I would like to see UD a 6 seed. Win against an 11 seed, then play an over rated 3 seed from a top 5 conference. Then get either a 2 seed or maybe a 7 seed in the sweet sixteen.

[ruechalgrin]

Joe has us as #23 in his latest tweeted bracketology so a 6 seed. He doesn't solely look if season ended today and projects the year as well.

Season ended today, Dayton is a 2-4 seed (yes UD's resume is that good). But 6 would be great as A-10 is so weak.

[priceg75]

So, our non conference strength of schedule is top 20. Take care of business in the conference and we're in.

[BRob2Perryman3]

No offense ud2, none whatsoever, but you were easily the most critical voice of the non-con this summer. What are your thoughts now? We certainly didnt have name brand recognition but we **** sure got the hard numbers from it we needed

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by ud2 I couldn't remember how Tulsa did in the next game...Tulsa lost 61-60 to 5 seed Wisconsin in the next game...Tulsa was a good team.

Tulsa had a 13 point lead with 3.5 minutes to go against Badgers and blew it.

I wanted the Flyers to play the Badgers so bad. I live in Wisconsin and worked in Illinois and there were plenty of Badger fans that gave me a hard time when we lost to Tulsa and didn't even get to play them. Then when Tulsa had that 13 point lead on Wisconsin, I called a badger fan and laughed at him. Oh that one came back to bite me even worse.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 No offense ud2, none whatsoever, but you were easily the most critical voice of the non-con this summer. What are your thoughts now? We certainly didnt have name brand recognition but we **** sure got the hard numbers from it we needed

No offense taken...during the off-season I did say that I liked the buy games that were chosen for this year...however, I maintain my undying dislike of the 16 home 14 away model...and let's wait until year's end to see what the final sos will be, the a10 is a bit down this year I think maybe...I just think that UD can and should schedule tougher...browse collegerpi.com and compare ud's past sos's vs. schools like a10 era Temple, a10 era Xavier, etc.

If you aspire to be the next Temple, then start scheduling like Temple does.

Also, this year's sos will probably be in line with the historical norm for ud, in the 70's...this year's sos only seems great because last year's was so bad.

Finally, AM earlier was sort of complaining about the number of tough games for UD this year...well, that's life...a good sos requires that you play tough opponents regularly.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[NorthwestFlyer]

Bracketology update (FWIW). UD has moved up to a 5 seed and GW is solidly in at a 7 seed. St. Joe and Richmond get honorable mentions which would be punching a ticket to the NIT. The good news is Monmouth is projected into the first four, so all you fans of their bench would get another show! Perhaps matched up with Arizona State. What a show that could be!

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[Medford]

^^^

While I agree that I would have liked to have seen at least 1 more road game added to this season's schedule (Keep in mind, Temple never could have drawn in the fans at home the way UD did, therefore they had to go on the road more often as they couldn't afford as many buy games as UD has), rpiforecast has UD's OOC strength of schedule expected ranking at 5. That is not just great in comparison to last season's schedule, that is great compared to pretty much everyone's OOC SOS.

FWIW, the other 4 teams ahead of UD on expected OOC SOS, one is Florida, the other 3 have no shot at an NCAA at large bid (Long Beach St, Nichols St & Western Carolina) Expand it out a bit further to the top 10, only Baylor & Kentucky are in the expected top 100 rpi

Conceding that UD has very little control over the conference portion of the SOS, this is about as good as UD could have done, other than finding another true road game to play. Most of the time, UD does an excellent job of generating a solid OOC schedule, last year was the exception rather than the norm.

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[xubrew]

Originally Posted by ud2 I couldn't remember how Tulsa did in the next game...Tulsa lost 61-60 to 5 seed Wisconsin in the next game...Tulsa was a good team.

Yes, they were. I know it was 13 years ago, but that Tulsa team is still an interesting case.

If you go by a team's paper and merit, that Tulsa team should have been a #13 seed. If you go by the "eye test" (I actually hate that term, but can't think of what else to call it), Tulsa was clearly a top 25 team. In fact, Tulsa had been ranked in the teens that year. The problem was they had two players injured and another suspended for fighting (or something like that), and then went through a stretch where they lost multiple games to awful teams. But, by the time they got everyone back late in the season, they started rampaging through everyone. They were the same team that had been ranked earlier on.

The reason it's interesting is because it poses the question of whether or not teams on the bottom half of the bracket (seeds 9 thru 16) should be seeded on merit or on common sense. I think the teams that wear white in the opening round (1 thru 8) should be seeded based on what they earned. I almost think the 9 thru 16 teams should be seeded based on the eye test, and I will still point to that Tulsa team as an extreme example. It's not fair to a team that earns a #4 seed to be matched up against a #13 seed that's clearly much better than what their resume indicates. Tulsa was a top 25 caliber team with a crappy resume because of what happened to them during the season. They'd been in the top 25 when they were at full strength, and were back at full strength for the tournament. They were better than anyone on the 9, 10, 11, and 12 line and it wasn't fair to the #4 seed, which happened to be Dayton. UD would have had a much easier time with virtually anyone else from the #9 line down.

[JimBo]

Originally Posted by ud2 If you aspire to be the next Temple, then start scheduling like Temple does.

There is no way UD will ever schedule the way that Temple did, or still does for that matter. Their home attendance numbers are poor so they go on the road to play power conference teams without a return visit. Do you really want the Flyers to do that considering the numbers they draw at home?

It has to be a pretty tough task for this program to schedule non-conference games. Power conference team simply refuse to play in UD Arena. It's unfortunate for us fans, but it is what it is. I think they did a pretty good job this year of scheduling quality non-conference opponents. Their RPI rankings prove that.

Besides, I'm not sure that we aspire to be the next Temple at this point anymore.

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[Angry John]

I think we scheduled about 98% right. This type of OOC schedule will get you in the NCAA. You can go overboard like Temple or what Miami used to do under Charlie Coles. Those type of schedules will keep you out of the NCAA Tournament if you lose. I like the first game being a dog. Need to always win the first game. What I did not like about the schedule are two things: One, did not like Chattanoga after Vanderbilt. Should have swapped the Furman and Chattanoga games around. Two, would have liked to have seen a dog away game. That would have made two away games. Every three to four years play a buy game at Duke or North Carolina. Would be nice to get a Duke game at the Arena within two to three years with Kennard playing for them. Scheduling is a very tough job. Almost impossible to get it 100%. UD did an outstanding job this year. A lot better than the Ted Kissell era. All we heard than were excuses. What helps is the SEC will play A-10 teams.

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Ted Kissell TED KISSELL Athletic Director at the University of Dayton from 1993-2008. Helped spearhead a renewed commitment to athletic excellence by hiring Oliver Purnell to resurrect the men's basketball program, and emphasized major non-revenue sports to raise UD's profile. Helped UD receive an invitation to the A10 Conference, developed new baseball, softball, soccer, football, and basketball facility upgrades, and achieved NCAA appearances in men's basketball, men's and women's soccer, and volleyball -- the latter three being program's firsts. Also served as UD's Vice President and improved overall academic performance among student athletes.

[ruechalgrin]

I would have liked to schedule more top 50 games (even if on the road), but I understand the Athletic Department would like to do the same, but have very few takers wanting a home and home with UD.

Saying that, I thought Iowa was the crucial game of the season. Great win and it will be the gif that keeps on giving on Selection Sunday.

[ruechalgrin]

Palm has Dayton up to a #4 seed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[AC91]

Originally Posted by xubrew Yes, they were. I know it was 13 years ago, but that Tulsa team is still an interesting case. If you go by a team's paper and merit, that Tulsa team should have been a #13 seed. If you go by the "eye test" (I actually hate that term, but can't think of what else to call it), Tulsa was clearly a top 25 team. In fact, Tulsa had been ranked in the teens that year. The problem was they had two players injured and another suspended for fighting (or something like that), and then went through a stretch where they lost multiple games to awful teams. But, by the time they got everyone back late in the season, they started rampaging through everyone. They were the same team that had been ranked earlier on. The reason it's interesting is because it poses the question of whether or not teams on the bottom half of the bracket (seeds 9 thru 16) should be seeded on merit or on common sense. I think the teams that wear white in the opening round (1 thru 8) should be seeded based on what they earned. I almost think the 9 thru 16 teams should be seeded based on the eye test, and I will still point to that Tulsa team as an extreme example. It's not fair to a team that earns a #4 seed to be matched up against a #13 seed that's clearly much better than what their resume indicates. Tulsa was a top 25 caliber team with a crappy resume because of what happened to them during the season. They'd been in the top 25 when they were at full strength, and were back at full strength for the tournament. They were better than anyone on the 9, 10, 11, and 12 line and it wasn't fair to the #4 seed, which happened to be Dayton. UD would have had a much easier time with virtually anyone else from the #9 line down.

I remember this well. I also remember that same year there were a lot of questions about how UD got a 4 seed and ND got a 5 seed. However, those questioning never seemed to also add that by ND getting "screwed" with that seeding, they got a game in Indy. UD was "rewarded" with a 4 seed out west vs Tulsa....

[Gazoo]

Originally Posted by AC91 I remember this well. I also remember that same year there were a lot of questions about how UD got a 4 seed and ND got a 5 seed. However, those questioning never seemed to also add that by ND getting "screwed" with that seeding, they got a game in Indy. UD was "rewarded" with a 4 seed out west vs Tulsa....

What I remember is that the committee rewarded ND with a home game (Indy) and penalized UD with the 4 seed a few time zones away. We were rightfully the 5 seed.

I would rather be the 5 seed (or 12, or 15) in Columbus than the 2 seed in Washington.

[springborofan]

Originally Posted by xubrew Yes, they were. I know it was 13 years ago, but that Tulsa team is still an interesting case. If you go by a team's paper and merit, that Tulsa team should have been a #13 seed. If you go by the "eye test" (I actually hate that term, but can't think of what else to call it), Tulsa was clearly a top 25 team. In fact, Tulsa had been ranked in the teens that year. The problem was they had two players injured and another suspended for fighting (or something like that), and then went through a stretch where they lost multiple games to awful teams. But, by the time they got everyone back late in the season, they started rampaging through everyone. They were the same team that had been ranked earlier on. The reason it's interesting is because it poses the question of whether or not teams on the bottom half of the bracket (seeds 9 thru 16) should be seeded on merit or on common sense. I think the teams that wear white in the opening round (1 thru 8) should be seeded based on what they earned. I almost think the 9 thru 16 teams should be seeded based on the eye test, and I will still point to that Tulsa team as an extreme example. It's not fair to a team that earns a #4 seed to be matched up against a #13 seed that's clearly much better than what their resume indicates. Tulsa was a top 25 caliber team with a crappy resume because of what happened to them during the season. They'd been in the top 25 when they were at full strength, and were back at full strength for the tournament. They were better than anyone on the 9, 10, 11, and 12 line and it wasn't fair to the #4 seed, which happened to be Dayton. UD would have had a much easier time with virtually anyone else from the #9 line down.

XUBrew...you know we love you on this board...even with a name like XUBrew. However, if your Nostradamus like rambling above comes true and a 3 seed XU loses to an 11 seed Wichita State in the second round, rest assured I will bump this topic back up...with a devilish smile on my face!

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[FlyingArrow]

Originally Posted by xubrew Yes, they were. I know it was 13 years ago, but that Tulsa team is still an interesting case. If you go by a team's paper and merit, that Tulsa team should have been a #13 seed. If you go by the "eye test" (I actually hate that term, but can't think of what else to call it), Tulsa was clearly a top 25 team. In fact, Tulsa had been ranked in the teens that year. The problem was they had two players injured and another suspended for fighting (or something like that), and then went through a stretch where they lost multiple games to awful teams. But, by the time they got everyone back late in the season, they started rampaging through everyone. They were the same team that had been ranked earlier on. The reason it's interesting is because it poses the question of whether or not teams on the bottom half of the bracket (seeds 9 thru 16) should be seeded on merit or on common sense. I think the teams that wear white in the opening round (1 thru 8) should be seeded based on what they earned. I almost think the 9 thru 16 teams should be seeded based on the eye test, and I will still point to that Tulsa team as an extreme example. It's not fair to a team that earns a #4 seed to be matched up against a #13 seed that's clearly much better than what their resume indicates. Tulsa was a top 25 caliber team with a crappy resume because of what happened to them during the season. They'd been in the top 25 when they were at full strength, and were back at full strength for the tournament. They were better than anyone on the 9, 10, 11, and 12 line and it wasn't fair to the #4 seed, which happened to be Dayton. UD would have had a much easier time with virtually anyone else from the #9 line down.

That makes a lot of sense, actually. As long as entry into the field is based solely on merit, I can see doing the seeding of the lower seeds based on the eye test, in order to make it more fair for seeds 1-8.

[longtimefan]

I thought the committee took injuries into account. If they had considered Tulsa's injuries they should have given them a better seed since they played great before the injuries and after they got those guys back. Their seed really screwed us.

[AC91]

given that Tulsa got a 13 seed it is likely they were either an automatic berth or likey the last at large selected based on their body of work. despite what people understood about the team, Tulsa out of the WAC, does not get the kind of consideration from the tournament committee that would move them up the board.

[xubrew]

Originally Posted by AC91 given that Tulsa got a 13 seed it is likely they were either an automatic berth or likey the last at large selected based on their body of work. despite what people understood about the team, Tulsa out of the WAC, does not get the kind of consideration from the tournament committee that would move them up the board.

They weren't even the first place team in the WAC. I know I'm repeating myself, but they went through a stretch where they lost five out of seven conference games, but they were without key players. Once they got back to full strength they just blew past everyone. The year before they were in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team and I think they lost to Kentucky in overtime in the second round. If it wasn't in overtime then it was a really close game. They had all their players back and were ranked in the top 25 for the first part of the year.

The problem was that they didn't beat anyone that was all that good even when they were at full strength, so the committee felt that couldn't really give them a ton of credit for anything when evaluating their paper. It was just obvious that they were really good. When a team almost makes the Sweet Sixteen and returns everyone, they're obviously good. They also had games against Gonzaga and Kansas where they played really tough, but lost. It was a very rare case where they were obviously much better than their paper and in their last ten games or so they had basically rampaged over everybody, including a lot of the teams who had beaten them when they were shorthanded.

[forego1]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[NorthwestFlyer]

Originally Posted by forego1 http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

We've moved up a spot since last I checked this site. I like the concept of this site.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by xubrew The year before they were in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team and I think they lost to Kentucky in overtime in the second round. If it wasn't in overtime then it was a really close game.

Looks like they were a 12 seed in the 2002 tournament. They beat Dwayne Wade and #5 Marquette 71-69 in the first round and lost to #4 Kentucky 87-82 in the second round. Tulsa went to the Elite 8 in the 2000 tournament.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_N...nament#Bracket

They were coached by John Phillips from 2001-2004, who resigned from Tulsa on Christmas Day in 2004.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_P...ketball_coach)

[forego1]

We are pegged as a 5 seed in consensus; I think that's about right. I envision this formula for Dayton seeding:

Each conference loss in excess of 2, Dayton drops two spots from 5. Each conference loss less 2, Dayton moves up one spot.
A-10 final holds status; loss prior costs a spot; Championship gains a spot.

Thus, five conference losses (pre-a10) would put us just inside the bubble.
Only one conference loss and an A-10 finals would put us at 4. (w/Championship = 3 seed)

w/ championship
0 loss= 2 seed
1 loss= 3 seed
2 loss= 4 seed
3 loss= 6 seed
4 loss= 8 seed

..obviously the particulars have bearing, so this is just an amusement..

[forego1]

Thanks for the thanks BeckysTXA. I think the holding point at 5 seed is 2 1/2 regular conference losses, but then no one could figure what I was projecting.

[224]

Originally Posted by forego1 We are pegged as a 5 seed in consensus; I think that's about right. I envision this formula for Dayton seeding: Each conference loss in excess of 2, Dayton drops two spots from 5. Each conference loss less 2, Dayton moves up one spot. A-10 final holds status; loss prior costs a spot; Championship gains a spot. Thus, five conference losses (pre-a10) would put us just inside the bubble. Only one conference loss and an A-10 finals would put us at 4. (w/Championship = 3 seed) w/ championship 0 loss= 2 seed 1 loss= 3 seed 2 loss= 4 seed 3 loss= 6 seed 4 loss= 8 seed ..obviously the particulars have bearing, so this is just an amusement..

I don't think each loss will punish us quite as much as you're expecting, however I do like your general idea. Taking it a step further...

RPI Forecast predicts us with a 14-4 conference record, 24-6 Overall w/o A10 tournament (w/ championship we would likely be 27-6 in this example)

RPI forecast has our current RPI as a 9, and we are expected to finish somewhere between 18-23 (likely higher with A10 championship).

If we finish 27-6 with A10 Championship, RPI of 19, which would include just 4 conference losses, I think we would be higher than an 8. We are likely in the 4-5 range with that resume, IMO.

I would think each loss would drop us 1 spot, not 2. But then at some point each loss will punish us 2-3 spots.

My thoughts on seeding below with expected RPI based on # of losses. Depending on who they are too, and how we preform in A10 tournament, I think we can safely lose 6 games in conference play and still expect an at large bid since our OOC resume is so strong. RPI Forecast shows we have an 88.19% chance to finish conference play at 12-6 or better. Anything beyond 6 has me worried...

w/ championship
0 loss= 2 seed (Expected RPI 5)
1 loss= 3 seed (Expected RPI 8)
2 loss= 4 seed (Expected RPI 11)
3 loss= 4/5 seed (Expected RPI 15)
4 loss= 5 seed (Expected RPI 19)
5 loss= 7 seed (Expected RPI 23)
6 loss= 10/11 (Expected RPI 30)
7 loss= Bubble/Out (Expected RPI 38)
8 loss= Out (Expected RPI 49)

[CE80]

I think a 3 seed is our absolute ceiling. Probably more like a 4 seed. The A10 is not strong enough this year to get us a better seed even of we run the table.

[KYFlyer]

Originally Posted by CE80 I think a 3 seed is our absolute ceiling. Probably more like a 4 seed. The A10 is not strong enough this year to get us a better seed even of we run the table.

So we are at a 5 seed now but if we run the table we move up only 1 seed line, 2 at most? Not buying it unless most of our top 50 wins and losses tank.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by KYFlyer So we are at a 5 seed now but if we run the table we move up only 1 seed line, 2 at most? Not buying it unless most of our top 50 wins and losses tank.

I haven't really followed closely the implications on seeding of each loss.

But I agree, if they run the table and go 28-2, their rpi will be 5 per rpiforecast with a sos of 54, I'm happy about that sos number. I think a 1 seed is in play at that point.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by KYFlyer So we are at a 5 seed now but if we run the table we move up only 1 seed line, 2 at most? Not buying it unless most of our top 50 wins and losses tank.

5 seed? I didn't know we were already in. We've been under seeded the last 2 years with a stronger A10. No reason to believe things will change this year.

I said 3 is absolute top. That is 9 - 12 on the S curve. Thought we would be more like 4, which would be 13 - 16. So I am really thinking 11-14. Look who is ranked ahead of us now and tell me you think we would be pass enough to only have 7 above us in order to be #8 on the S curve (a 2 seed)? I stand by that and would be so, so happy to see who is right even if we both are wrong.

[forego1]

I delved into silly territory with this.

I agree 224 that my approximation is too conservative. I really wanted to use a net avg. 1 1/2 per loss based on 2 1/2 loss holding position, but thought it much too complicated (and this is already moronic enough)

Running the table would be a miracle, but at 31-2 there is no possibility on earth we would be worse than a 2 seed {but no point in this conjecture (yet)}

[forego1]

OMG ! Imagine the media frenzy with the 31-2 scenario with Archie Miller as head coach.

[UDFlyer23]

Pump the breaks on this running the table talk. I just hope we don't lay an egg on Saturday and play poorly (which seems to be the norm in Philly)

[ud2]

Originally Posted by forego1 I delved into silly territory with this. I agree 224 that my approximation is too conservative. I really wanted to use a net avg. 1 1/2 per loss based on 2 1/2 loss holding position, but thought it much too complicated (and this is already moronic enough) Running the table would be a miracle, but at 31-2 there is no possibility on earth we would be worse than a 2 seed {but no point in this conjecture (yet)}

IMO, here is a relevant point of reference.

St. Joe's, out of the A10, in 2004 was given a 1 seed. They lost in their first game in the A10 tournament at UD Arena that year. They went to the Elite 8.

Per collegerpi.com, they went 27-1 with a rpi of 3 and sos of 46 in the regular season.

We're looking at UD being 28-2 with a rpi of 5 and sos of 54. UD would be very close to having the same resume.

[ud2]

Clearing up the St. Joe's 2004 thing...I looked it up, and I was wrong, they actually went 27-0 in the regular season, 0-1 in the A10 tournament...1 of 25 teams all-time to go undefeated in d1 college basketball in the regular season.

11-0 in the non-con
16-0 in the A10

27-1 heading into the NCAA tournament...rpi 3 sos 46.

Finished at 30-2.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003%E...asketball_team

[UD62]

Is pot legal on this site?

[Swampy Meadows]

First order of biz in Philly:

Do not have cheesesteaks the night before the game!
Posted via Mobile Device

[longtimefan]

I would be thrilled to get a 7 or better (don't want an 8 or 9). We are bound to have some stumbles in the A-10. The committee hasn't been too kind to us recently.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by UD62 Is pot legal on this site?

Sorry to be that guy, but why not?

I'm a believer, I could totally see UD getting a 1 or 2 seed this year. All the computer models present that as a reasonable outcome. More likely somewhere in the 3-5 range though, but I am only guessing.

Just because they haven't done it in the past does not mean that it cannot happen.

[TerryK_67]

"Delusional" would be a step up for some of you guys........
need to even things out .... not soooo high when we win; and not soooo low when we don't.
GO FLYERS!

[forego1]

I think it can be reasonably said that this forum represents part of the Dayton fan base. So you understand, fan is an abbreviation of fanatic in its etymology.
I am definitely a fan of the Dayton Flyers.

You probably think it is perfectly sane for someone to whack a gonad size ball around a few thousand yards to drop it into random holes.

A fan acts fanatically..(like Geico commercial).. "That's what you do."

[ud2]

Originally Posted by TerryK_67 "Delusional" would be a step up for some of you guys........ need to even things out .... not soooo high when we win; and not soooo low when we don't. GO FLYERS!

I might be bookmarking this thread and bringing it back up on Selection Sunday.

CBS has UD as a 4 seed now...I don't know why some of you find it so hard to believe that UD could move up 2-3 seeds from that, that seems very reasonable to me.

It's not like UD would be moving from an 11 seed to a 1 or 2.


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[CE80]

Originally Posted by ud2 I might be bookmarking this thread and bringing it back up on Selection Sunday. CBS has UD as a 4 seed now...I don't know why some of you find it so hard to believe that UD could move up 2-3 seeds from that, that seems very reasonable to me. It's not like UD would be moving from an 11 seed to a 1 or 2. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

My last post on this subject for awhile (well maybe).

All the "bracketologists" had us as a much better seed last season. Dancecard had us out. I think 2 years ago, SMU was top 25 ranked and did not make it. Take what the so called experts think with a large grain of salt. This year's A10 will not give us the opportunities for resume building wins.

[Medford]

If (make that IF) UD ran the table, they end up with a top 4 rpi, however, the problem they would face would be a lack of marquee wins. Using rpiforecast's projections, they would have 1 top 25 win (Iowa) 1 top 50 win on a neutral court (Monmouth), 1 top 50 win on the road (Vandy) and they'd be 10-1 vs the top 50 - 100 (Arkansas at 101 just misses the cutoff), about split home to road (6 wins would be at home, 4 on the road, the loss to Chattanooga being at home as well)

Add in whatever happens in Brooklyn, but assuming UD swept there, that would be 3 more wins, most likely 2 of those wins would be in the top 50-100 range, but wouldn't fall in the top 50 as UD is the only A10 team projected in the top 50 (I think that eventually changes and someone else in conference climbs into the top 50, a lot of schools in the 50-70 range that could make their mark)

So in short, they'd have a bunch of wins (31), no bad losses, and only 1 truly marquee win. I don't know how that would compare to a team like Wichita St or St Joes who went undefeated and earned top seeds, but I'm guessing it would compare very unfavorably to an Oklahoma, Kansas, Michigan St, etc... in terms of top 25 wins, the opportunities just won't be there like there are for Power 5 (or Big East) conference teams. Obviously somebody is going to step up and win those conferences, and they're likely going to so accumulating 4 or more top 25 wins along the way.

So by running the table, could they get a 1 seed, maybe, but a 2 seed would be more likely I think. With that said, there's less than a 1% chance that UD wins out according to rpiforecast/sagarin, so I'm not going to hold my breath. It would be awesome, but there are far too many stumbling blocks along the way. However, what I will accept, and what I think is obtainable is rpiforecast's 14-4 conference record, that includes the 1 game they say UD is a slight dog (@ Rhody, UD wins 48% of the time) plus 3 additional losses somewhere w/n the schedule. Do that, and win in Brooklyn and that should net them somewhere in the neighborhood of a top 15 rpi. If all of those 3 additional losses are in the "acceptable" area, it top 50-100, most on the road) I think that would net UD somewhere around a 4 or 5 seed. They likely won't have as many top 25 wins as the other 4-5 seeds, nor as many top 50 wins, but they'll compare favorably in top 100 wins as well as overall wins and likely have less "bad losses"

Long ways to go still, long ways to go. In my opinion, get thru the road game @ St Joes on Feb. 17th, then take stock of where UD is at in comparison to the basketball landscape and start thinking about potential seeds. Too many pitfalls b/w here and there, many of which would be considered in the "bad loss" category.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[Gazoo]

There are 50+ teams currently projected below a 2 seed that would get a 1 seed "if they win out from here" -- probably even more. For example, every team not named Michigan State or Maryland in the B10 would be a 1 seed if they won every game from here on out. I don't care how bad Rutgers has been, if they beat tOSU twice, MSU twice, Purdue, Iowa, and Michigan, + run the table in the B10 tournament beating MSU + Maryland, they are a 1 seed. And that's the extreme case, not the ones who are actually any good.

PS There are only 4 #1 seeds available.

PPS Not one of those 50+ teams has likely ever gone undefeated from this point in the season.

PPPS It ain't gonna happen.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by UD62 Is pot legal on this site?

okay - one more post.

This is a conversation that should only be had with large amounts of pot and/or alcohol around.

[rollo]

Originally Posted by CE80 okay - one more post. This is a conversation that should only be had with large amounts of pot and/or alcohol around.

[forego1]

Well, in order to bring this inane discussion to some perceivable medium, I suggest someone create a predictive poll.

Dayton will be:

1) 4 seed or less
2) 5 or 6 seed
3) 7,8, or 9 seed
4) 10,11,12 or out

I'll guess 5 or 6 seed (a record of 28-5)

[UDFlyer23]

Dayton isn't running the table. A realistic best case scenario is finishing the regular season with 5-6 losses. 24-6, 14-4 or 25-5, 15-3. Some tough road games at RI and Richmond and we are going to stumble a few times.

The difference between last year is that our OOC resume is way better and will solidify our RPI as long as we don't drop any A10 games to 200+ opponents. As long as we win out at home and the only losses come on the road to decent teams (like a SBU, Richmond, or RI), our RPI is going to be just fine.

That resume, plus a good showing in the A10 tourney easily warrants a 4-7 seed. Like others have mentioned, I think a 4 seed is a realistic ceiling.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	St Bonaventure SAINT BONAVENTURE Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf.

[forego1]

I'm changing my opinion to a 30-3 record and a 3 seed.

[forego1]

Originally Posted by rollo

On behalf of rollo (this being too camp to pass up):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ON0iqz4ento

[FlyerGuyer]

#1 seed, here we come!

[forego1]

holy jesus !