|
|
03-09-2014, 01:16 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 22,423
Thanks: 6,783
Thanked 6,122 Times in 4,168 Posts
|
|
Odds to win A10 tournament
SLU vs. UMass and LaSalle vs. St. Joe are being played today.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/conf...tic-10-bracket
Edit: I have no idea how the little winking face ended up in the thread title. ??? I must have hit the wrong button.
Last edited by ud2; 03-09-2014 at 01:22 PM..
|
03-09-2014, 02:51 PM
|
Major General
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: San Fernando Valley, CA
Posts: 3,285
Thanks: 1,215
Thanked 2,164 Times in 1,008 Posts
|
|
That a cool site but I'm sorry, we have better than a 7% chance of winning the conference tournament. Just like UMass has better than a 11%.
|
03-09-2014, 02:53 PM
|
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Long Island NY
Posts: 7,170
Thanks: 31,807
Thanked 1,266 Times in 784 Posts
|
|
St Lou and Umass tied near the half.
High energy game. Prob favors umass if its a 70 point game
|
03-09-2014, 03:42 PM
|
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 428
Thanks: 394
Thanked 128 Times in 52 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Buster Goode
That a cool site but I'm sorry, we have better than a 7% chance of winning the conference tournament. Just like UMass has better than a 11%.
|
7% and 11% seem pretty reasonable. That website uses mathematical calculations based on historical facts to come up with their analysis. You jumping in and saying UD has a better than a 7% chance to win it without backing it up really makes no sense whatsoever. Just gotta concentrate on getting that win over the bottom dweller.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
Mad Props to Phi Psi Flyer '09 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-09-2014, 09:58 PM
|
Major General
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: San Fernando Valley, CA
Posts: 3,285
Thanks: 1,215
Thanked 2,164 Times in 1,008 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09
7% and 11% seem pretty reasonable. That website uses mathematical calculations based on historical facts to come up with their analysis. You jumping in and saying UD has a better than a 7% chance to win it without backing it up really makes no sense whatsoever. Just gotta concentrate on getting that win over the bottom dweller.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
You must have equity in that website. Would you be happier if I pulled out my abacus and lined up all sorts of statistics factoring in the variance between days where Archie ate a foot long Subway Melt and conference losses? I watched nearly every game on TV or online this year, I think I have a pretty good feel for how good of a chance we have in Brooklyn. You can go at 80% of college bball taking heads if you are asking for far more than opinions based on observations.
|
03-09-2014, 10:29 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Buster Goode
You must have equity in that website. Would you be happier if I pulled out my abacus and lined up all sorts of statistics factoring in the variance between days where Archie ate a foot long Subway Melt and conference losses? I watched nearly every game on TV or online this year, I think I have a pretty good feel for how good of a chance we have in Brooklyn. You can go at 80% of college bball taking heads if you are asking for far more than opinions based on observations.
|
So what % would you assign to each team winning the a10 tourney?
|
03-09-2014, 11:18 PM
|
Major General
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: San Fernando Valley, CA
Posts: 3,285
Thanks: 1,215
Thanked 2,164 Times in 1,008 Posts
|
|
I'd give Dayton about 15-18% chance
|
Mad Props to Buster Goode For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
03-10-2014, 08:20 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Buster Goode
I'd give Dayton about 15-18% chance
|
What % would you assign to all the other teams?
|
03-10-2014, 08:25 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,546
Thanks: 16,232
Thanked 15,872 Times in 6,979 Posts
|
|
I can play this game, too:
VCU 40%
St. Louis 20%
UD 10%
St. Joe's 10%
UMass 10%
GW 8%
Field 2%
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
|
03-10-2014, 08:37 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Here is what they calculate:
Saint Louis 22.3%
VCU 35.7%
Geo Wshgtn 10.9%
St Josephs 7.5%
U Mass 8.8%
Dayton 7.9%
Richmond 2.4%
La Salle 1.7%
St Bonavent 1.8%
Duquesne 0.2%
Rhode Island 0.4%
Geo Mason 0.5%
Fordham 0.0%
What is interesting is that they give Joes a better chance of making it to the semis but Flyers have a slightly better chance to win it all. I could quibble over a few % points but overall I agree. VCU the favorite with 50% greater chance than next one - SLU. Next 4 - GW, UMass, UD , Joes all about the same.
|
03-10-2014, 10:04 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
After giving it more thought, it is obvious the SLU and VCU both have a much easier path to the semis than the next 4 seeds - GW, UMass, UD , Joes. That alone increases their odds of winning. I also think that SLUs odds are below VCUs because we are on their side of the bracket. If they run this after the quarterfinals, you see a much different picture with the 4 semifinal teams with closer % chances of winning it all.
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|