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  #1  
Old 03-09-2014, 01:16 PM
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Wink Odds to win A10 tournament

SLU vs. UMass and LaSalle vs. St. Joe are being played today.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/conf...tic-10-bracket

Edit: I have no idea how the little winking face ended up in the thread title. ??? I must have hit the wrong button.

Last edited by ud2; 03-09-2014 at 01:22 PM..
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  #2  
Old 03-09-2014, 02:51 PM
Buster Goode Buster Goode is offline
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That a cool site but I'm sorry, we have better than a 7% chance of winning the conference tournament. Just like UMass has better than a 11%.
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Old 03-09-2014, 02:53 PM
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St Lou and Umass tied near the half.

High energy game. Prob favors umass if its a 70 point game
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Old 03-09-2014, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
That a cool site but I'm sorry, we have better than a 7% chance of winning the conference tournament. Just like UMass has better than a 11%.
7% and 11% seem pretty reasonable. That website uses mathematical calculations based on historical facts to come up with their analysis. You jumping in and saying UD has a better than a 7% chance to win it without backing it up really makes no sense whatsoever. Just gotta concentrate on getting that win over the bottom dweller.
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  #5  
Old 03-09-2014, 09:58 PM
Buster Goode Buster Goode is offline
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Originally Posted by Phi Psi Flyer '09 View Post
7% and 11% seem pretty reasonable. That website uses mathematical calculations based on historical facts to come up with their analysis. You jumping in and saying UD has a better than a 7% chance to win it without backing it up really makes no sense whatsoever. Just gotta concentrate on getting that win over the bottom dweller.
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You must have equity in that website. Would you be happier if I pulled out my abacus and lined up all sorts of statistics factoring in the variance between days where Archie ate a foot long Subway Melt and conference losses? I watched nearly every game on TV or online this year, I think I have a pretty good feel for how good of a chance we have in Brooklyn. You can go at 80% of college bball taking heads if you are asking for far more than opinions based on observations.
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Old 03-09-2014, 10:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
You must have equity in that website. Would you be happier if I pulled out my abacus and lined up all sorts of statistics factoring in the variance between days where Archie ate a foot long Subway Melt and conference losses? I watched nearly every game on TV or online this year, I think I have a pretty good feel for how good of a chance we have in Brooklyn. You can go at 80% of college bball taking heads if you are asking for far more than opinions based on observations.
So what % would you assign to each team winning the a10 tourney?
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Old 03-09-2014, 11:18 PM
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I'd give Dayton about 15-18% chance
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  #8  
Old 03-10-2014, 08:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
I'd give Dayton about 15-18% chance
What % would you assign to all the other teams?
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  #9  
Old 03-10-2014, 08:25 AM
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I can play this game, too:

VCU 40%
St. Louis 20%
UD 10%
St. Joe's 10%
UMass 10%
GW 8%
Field 2%
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  #10  
Old 03-10-2014, 08:37 AM
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Here is what they calculate:

Saint Louis 22.3%
VCU 35.7%
Geo Wshgtn 10.9%
St Josephs 7.5%
U Mass 8.8%
Dayton 7.9%
Richmond 2.4%
La Salle 1.7%
St Bonavent 1.8%
Duquesne 0.2%
Rhode Island 0.4%
Geo Mason 0.5%
Fordham 0.0%

What is interesting is that they give Joes a better chance of making it to the semis but Flyers have a slightly better chance to win it all. I could quibble over a few % points but overall I agree. VCU the favorite with 50% greater chance than next one - SLU. Next 4 - GW, UMass, UD , Joes all about the same.
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  #11  
Old 03-10-2014, 10:04 AM
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After giving it more thought, it is obvious the SLU and VCU both have a much easier path to the semis than the next 4 seeds - GW, UMass, UD , Joes. That alone increases their odds of winning. I also think that SLUs odds are below VCUs because we are on their side of the bracket. If they run this after the quarterfinals, you see a much different picture with the 4 semifinal teams with closer % chances of winning it all.
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