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  #1  
Old 03-09-2014, 04:05 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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5 seed it is

see you on Thursday Mason/Fordham at 2:30 on NBCSports
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  #2  
Old 03-09-2014, 04:06 PM
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yes !
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:06 PM
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What a finish. Good job by Jett willing his team to win.
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:09 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Our path:

Mason/Fordham winner
GW
SLU/(Bona/LaSalle) winner
SJU/VCU/UMass/Richmond/Duq/URI winner
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:10 PM
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Originally Posted by THirt View Post
What a finish. Good job by Jett willing his team to win.
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...and how about that block/tie-up/jump ball by Loe? Huge play. Looked like an easy lay-up and not only does Loe not foul, but he ties him up, possession arrow to SLU, and then Jett to the basket for the win. Yeah baby!

Big not only because we are the 5 seed now, but also because we played SLU twice and this win bumped them well into the RPI Top 25. They were getting close to falling out...
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Our path:

Mason/Fordham winner
GW
SLU/(Bona/LaSalle) winner
SJU/VCU/UMass/Richmond/Duq/URI winner

That's about as good as we can ask for, methinks...
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  #7  
Old 03-09-2014, 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Our path:

Mason/Fordham winner
GW
SLU/(Bona/LaSalle) winner
SJU/VCU/UMass/Richmond/Duq/URI winner
Not so fast....I think if st joes loses today, they are 4th and GW is 3rd. I'd rather play GW...
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  #8  
Old 03-09-2014, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
That's about as good as we can ask for, methinks...
Me too. But could we be playing GW with a spot in the Dance going only to the winner?
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:14 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
Not so fast....I think if st joes loses today, they are 4th and GW is 3rd. I'd rather play GW...
youre right but i figure theres a better chance of Lucy Liu sending a car for me to take me to the airport then her penthouse
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:15 PM
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Can SJU get to the #2 seed with a win today?
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:17 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Yes, SJU is the 2 with a win
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:17 PM
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How much "juice" do we get on the Dance Card with the SLU win?
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:19 PM
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A lot on the line for Phil today. I don't see them losing.
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Me too. But could we be playing GW with a spot in the Dance going only to the winner?

Uh-oh that's a good point. Hope not. At least we already beat them once, so it's not like they would be sweeping us...
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:21 PM
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Best possible scenario in my mind avoid SJU and VCU until finals.

Biggest game is the next one. Also like avoiding Duquesne.
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:22 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Win one game. ONE. And we are in, everything else is seeding.
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:23 PM
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UMass now 17 in RPI, SLU 18. That's two RPI Top 25 wins for us, with Gonzaga lurking right around 25...
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Best possible scenario in my mind avoid SJU and VCU until finals.

Biggest game is the next one. Also like avoiding Duquesne.
I prefer avoiding all opponents, but the only way you do that is not be in the tournament...so lets take em one game at a time. 9-1 in our last 10 games and against the leagues top teams means we CAN DO IT.
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Best possible scenario in my mind avoid SJU and VCU until finals.

Biggest game is the next one. Also like avoiding Duquesne.
See, I'm not so sure. Seems that teams that have a lock on the dance don't come to play in these tournys more times than not. VCU and SJU might be the better matchup due to that. I also would rather play a team that we're looking for payback than the opposite. I really hate playing a good team that we crushed at home for a number of reason beside the above. One being that the team that lost will change their game plan, the team that won, might not and then it becomes a mess.
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  #20  
Old 03-09-2014, 04:29 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Out of the 5 "locks" in this conference the one we would all prefer to get in the quarters was GW. and we got it. The basketball gods are smiling on us recently. Maybe CWD and Rita were in someones ear.
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  #21  
Old 03-09-2014, 04:31 PM
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Will we be "dinged rpi wise with our first win in the tourney? How does dance card math work once your team begins play in the conf. tourney?
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:37 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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beating Fordham/Mason will probably drop our RPI a spot or 2, depending on the teams around us
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  #23  
Old 03-09-2014, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Out of the 5 "locks" in this conference the one we would all prefer to get in the quarters was GW. and we got it. The basketball gods are smiling on us recently. Maybe CWD and Rita were in someones ear.
The main area I differ with the majority of this board is that everyone talks of 5 A10 locks. That thinking is for Lunardi and the talking heads. We just finished 5th in a conference with 6 Top 40 RPI teams.

I agree with the dance card and what they said about the A10 top 6 on CBS College Sports after the SLU win today. These teams "won't be sweating" like some of the other bubble teams.

We are now playing are way out of the First Four and into as high as a 7 seed.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:43 PM
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Assuming St Joe's beats LaSalle today, here's my prediction:

13-Fordham over 12-GM

5-Dayton over 13-Fordham
9-LaSalle over 8-SBU
10-Duq over 7-Richmond
6-UMass over 11-URI

1-SLU over 9-LaSalle
5-Dayton over 4-GW
2-SJU over 10-Duq
3-VCU over 6-UMass

1-SLU over 5-Dayton
3-VCU over 2-SJU

3-VCU over 1-SLU

We finish 24-10. 9-seed in San Diego in Arizona's (#1) bracket.

Last edited by Buster Goode; 03-09-2014 at 04:48 PM..
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:44 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
The main area I differ with the majority of this board is that everyone talks of 5 A10 locks. That thinking is for Lunardi and the talking heads. We just finished 5th in a conference with 6 Top 40 RPI teams.

I agree with the dance card and what they said about the A10 top 6 on CBS College Sports after the SLU win today. These teams "won't be sweating" like some of the other bubble teams.

We are now playing are way out of the First Four and into as high as a 7 seed.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
couldnt agree more. notice i put "locks" in quotes in my original post, i think the Flyers are a solid 10 maybe a 9 right now
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  #26  
Old 03-09-2014, 04:47 PM
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Was over surfing through the A-10 Forum. Interesting post by St. Joe's Hawk fan hawkmaniac........

"All season long, I've been saying the bracket with SLU is the bracket of death. Now, I think wherever Dayton ends up is the bracket of death."

I guess we have gained some respect with the 9-1 finish.
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  #27  
Old 03-09-2014, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Out of the 5 "locks" in this conference the one we would all prefer to get in the quarters was GW. and we got it. The basketball gods are smiling on us recently. Maybe CWD and Rita were in someones ear.
I hope you don't jinx us. Joes has to win first. I

Not that it matters but I think I rather have played SLU or UMass.
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:48 PM
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LaSalle currently up 28-21 on SJU. This is one of those cross-town Philly Big 5 rivalries so anything can happen...
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:54 PM
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Ironically despite finishing behind SJU and GW the dance card likes our credentials much better.
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:55 PM
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The 8/9 seed opposite AZ (assuming they are a 1) will generate quite a buzz with the potential Arch/Sean matchup.
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:55 PM
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La Salle up 33-23 at the half
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:58 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Originally Posted by flyerfever View Post
The 8/9 seed opposite AZ (assuming they are a 1) will generate quite a buzz with the potential Arch/Sean matchup.
and Arizona is down Ashley. i'd love to get a shot at a top seed
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Old 03-09-2014, 04:59 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Kanacevic hasnt been playing, hopefully he'll stay away from that 4th foul and they can recover. Go Hawks
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Old 03-09-2014, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Ironically despite finishing behind SJU and GW the dance card likes our credentials much better.

Our non-con was more impressive. Also, I think SJU overachieved a bit during the season. I think we could beat them if we met again...it's hard to beat a team three times in one season.
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Old 03-09-2014, 05:08 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
and Arizona is down Ashley. i'd love to get a shot at a top seed
If the goal is to advance in the tournament, no you wouldn't.
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Old 03-09-2014, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
If the goal is to advance in the tournament, no you wouldn't.
the goal is to win the tournament. not advance
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Old 03-09-2014, 05:12 PM
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Thumbs up New arrival Pat Flanagan

Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Out of the 5 "locks" in this conference the one we would all prefer to get in the quarters was GW. and we got it. The basketball gods are smiling on us recently. Maybe CWD and Rita were in someones ear.
After the St. Joe game, I made the comment at Flyer Feedback that we had not honored our host Pat Flanagan since his wake. Since that game, we have toasted Rita and Pat during each show at Flanagan's. The luck of the Irish is with us.
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  #38  
Old 03-09-2014, 05:16 PM
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http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Looking at the latest Bracket Matrix, we aren't as comfortably in as I would like. Maybe we do need 2 in Brooklyn..... I don't know - it does seem like we are always a worse seed then expected when we are close, out or in.
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Old 03-09-2014, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Looking at the latest Bracket Matrix, we aren't as comfortably in as I would like. Maybe we do need 2 in Brooklyn..... I don't know - it does seem like we are always a worse seed then expected when we are close, out or in.
I believe some of the polls that bracket matrix uses do not update more than once a week or so, so our most recent wins may not be taken into consideration yet. I know our stock has went up a bit just since I looked at it earlier this morning. My hunch is in the next few days we will be pretty darn close to 100% in based on the matrix.
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Old 03-09-2014, 05:31 PM
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LaSalle gonna throw a wrench into my predictions with a shake up of seeds 2-4
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Old 03-09-2014, 05:41 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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not over yet, Hawks got a run in them. they HAVE too
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Old 03-09-2014, 05:44 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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stupid Hawks. cmon Joes
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Old 03-09-2014, 05:45 PM
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6-16 from the line. Wow.
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Old 03-09-2014, 05:55 PM
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looks like if we win we get Joes on friday now
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Old 03-09-2014, 06:13 PM
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Ok, here's the positive spin on the SJU loss: We moved ahead of them in the RPI, and LaSalle propelled back into the Top 100 (all the way from 105 to 89), giving us another Top 100 win.
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  #46  
Old 03-09-2014, 06:15 PM
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thats actually a really big plus. hope the guys dont look ahead. concentrate on Thursday and then beat the Hawks Friday baby
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  #47  
Old 03-09-2014, 06:18 PM
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On the bright side - Another Top 100 Win likely from LaSalle now.
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Old 03-09-2014, 06:20 PM
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George Mason has been playing well lately, so we need to be prepared for them (and/or Fordham, too, but more so GM haha).
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Old 03-09-2014, 06:23 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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i cant believe we drew Joes in the quarters. unreal
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Old 03-09-2014, 06:31 PM
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I would love another shot at The Hawks. Our guys would be highly motivated.
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  #51  
Old 03-09-2014, 06:31 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Ok, here's the positive spin on the SJU loss: We moved ahead of them in the RPI, and LaSalle propelled back into the Top 100 (all the way from 105 to 89), giving us another Top 100 win.
Not sure I understand these RPI wins as LaSalle was not a top 100 team when we beat them.

We get these top 50 and 100 wins based on where the team was at the time we beat them as some are not in that 50 or 100 bracket today. Never quite understood how these are figured. Because if LaSalle can be counted as another top 100 win then those teams we beat that were in the top 50 and have since dropped out would then be stricken from our wins in those categories.
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Old 03-09-2014, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Avid Flyer View Post
We get these top 50 and 100 wins based on where the team was at the time we beat them as some are not in that 50 or 100 bracket today. .

Really? Is that how it works? Because that means you could beat an RPI Top 25 team in the second game of the season, which will count as a Top 25 win at the end of the season even if that team actually finishes the season at like 200 in the RPI?
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Old 03-09-2014, 06:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Avid Flyer View Post
Not sure I understand these RPI wins as LaSalle was not a top 100 team when we beat them.

Also, LaSalle actually was a Top 100 team when we beat them. They fell out recently and are now back in...
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  #54  
Old 03-09-2014, 06:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Avid Flyer View Post
Not sure I understand these RPI wins as LaSalle was not a top 100 team when we beat them.

We get these top 50 and 100 wins based on where the team was at the time we beat them as some are not in that 50 or 100 bracket today. Never quite understood how these are figured. Because if LaSalle can be counted as another top 100 win then those teams we beat that were in the top 50 and have since dropped out would then be stricken from our wins in those categories.
I am pretty sure for RPI wins it is where the team currently is, not where they were when you beat them.
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Old 03-09-2014, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
I am pretty sure for RPI wins it is where the team currently is, not where they were when you beat them.
Correct.
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Old 03-09-2014, 06:44 PM
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Originally Posted by The Gem View Post
I would love another shot at The Hawks. Our guys would be highly motivated.

Their best non-con win was Boston University. Yawn. They beat VCU and UMass at home, and their best road win of the entire season was a last second heave at Dayton. Not the most impressive resume even though they beat us twice with one of those games being an absolute pounding.

Flyers will be motivated, but honestly, SJU may need this win just as much as us...gonna be a battle IF we get past the first round.
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Old 03-09-2014, 07:09 PM
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But the game is still on at 2:30?
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Old 03-09-2014, 07:12 PM
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Bracket and times
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  #59  
Old 03-09-2014, 08:00 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Flyers will be motivated, but honestly, SJU may need this win just as much as us...gonna be a battle IF we get past the first round.
Exactly. As pointed out earlier, also by FG, we are now ahead of the Hawks in the RPI. Both teams finished with 9 regular season losses. Dayton played one more game than SJU and won it. SJU finished 1 game up on the Flyers in the conference season. Other factors notwithstanding - like road/neutral record, good wins, and bad losses - it's almost a dead heat between these two.

Assuming we take care of business on Thursday, I think the potential matchup on Friday could clinch it for one of us while putting the other in a tough spot come Selection Sunday. And if it's Dayton who loses it'll be extra scary considering we would have lost to St. Joes 3 times in a season. Then it becomes a matter of does the Committee really NOT pick teams based on conferences but based on their own merits.

I prefer to look at this anticipated matchup with the Hawks as a huge opportunity for the Flyers. Winning would mean keeping us ahead of them in the RPI. Plus we obviously knock them out of the A10 Tourney in the Quarters. And they won't have swept us in 3 games this season. As players, there should be plenty of reason to be sky high for this game. We already took care of Rhode Island, St. Louis, and Richmond in recent payback games. Friday will be time to do it to St. Joes in a game that will mean a lot to both teams.

Remember, too, that if this game does take place it'll be in Brooklyn, not Philly. So let's rally our NYC and Northeast alums to join those traveling from Dayton to take over the joint just like Maui!
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Old 03-09-2014, 08:18 PM
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Originally Posted by redbengal View Post
Exactly. As pointed out earlier, also by FG, we are now ahead of the Hawks in the RPI. Both teams finished with 9 regular season losses. Dayton played one more game than SJU and won it. SJU finished 1 game up on the Flyers in the conference season. Other factors notwithstanding - like road/neutral record, good wins, and bad losses - it's almost a dead heat between these two.

Assuming we take care of business on Thursday, I think the potential matchup on Friday could clinch it for one of us while putting the other in a tough spot come Selection Sunday. And if it's Dayton who loses it'll be extra scary considering we would have lost to St. Joes 3 times in a season. Then it becomes a matter of does the Committee really NOT pick teams based on conferences but based on their own merits.

I prefer to look at this anticipated matchup with the Hawks as a huge opportunity for the Flyers. Winning would mean keeping us ahead of them in the RPI. Plus we obviously knock them out of the A10 Tourney in the Quarters. And they won't have swept us in 3 games this season. As players, there should be plenty of reason to be sky high for this game. We already took care of Rhode Island, St. Louis, and Richmond in recent payback games. Friday will be time to do it to St. Joes in a game that will mean a lot to both teams.

Remember, too, that if this game does take place it'll be in Brooklyn, not Philly. So let's rally our NYC and Northeast alums to join those traveling from Dayton to take over the joint just like Maui!
After looking closer at the Flyers resume, I'm convinced that they aren't going to the dance without 2 more victories. Those losses to RI, ISU and especially USC at home, adding to it 3 losses to SJ, I think we will be NITing it again. I'd be willing to bet on it.
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Old 03-09-2014, 08:21 PM
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I think we need to win the 1st game. I don't think that losing to Saint Joes would move the RPI needle much and therefore would not impact us heavily.
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Old 03-09-2014, 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
I think we need to win the 1st game. I don't think that losing to Saint Joes would move the RPI needle much and therefore would not impact us heavily.
We've gotten left out with better RPIs in the past. And if a team like LaSalle or Richmond should end up winning it and getting the auto bid, it might take more than 2 more wins to get there.
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Old 03-09-2014, 08:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
After looking closer at the Flyers resume, I'm convinced that they aren't going to the dance without 2 more victories. Those losses to RI, ISU and especially USC at home, adding to it 3 losses to SJ, I think we will be NITing it again. I'd be willing to bet on it.
I would take that bet. I still think getting to 23 wins is a lock.
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Old 03-09-2014, 08:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
After looking closer at the Flyers resume, I'm convinced that they aren't going to the dance without 2 more victories. Those losses to RI, ISU and especially USC at home, adding to it 3 losses to SJ, I think we will be NITing it again. I'd be willing to bet on it.
That is way too myopic of a viewpoint. The NCAA selection committee is not going to take UD because they lost three times to a team that is a 40 RPI while completely overlooking the other 29 games where UD's resume is better than just about any other bubble team? I hope UD doesn't lose to St Joe, but yeah, I'd take that bet.
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Old 03-09-2014, 08:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
After looking closer at the Flyers resume, I'm convinced that they aren't going to the dance without 2 more victories. Those losses to RI, ISU and especially USC at home, adding to it 3 losses to SJ, I think we will be NITing it again. I'd be willing to bet on it.
I'm game...I'll take that bet as well.
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Old 03-09-2014, 08:51 PM
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Good wins are valued more than bad losses.
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Old 03-09-2014, 09:12 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
That is way too myopic of a viewpoint. The NCAA selection committee is not going to take UD because they lost three times to a team that is a 40 RPI while completely overlooking the other 29 games where UD's resume is better than just about any other bubble team? I hope UD doesn't lose to St Joe, but yeah, I'd take that bet.
I hope you're all right on this, I really do and I especially hope that it's irrelevant and we win the 2 games. But I just don't believe that 6 A10 teams are going and I believe if we lose to St. Joes, we're the 6th team in the conference in their eyes. And I know 7 teams aren't going so if someone other than SL, VCU, GW, SJ, UD and UMass should win our tourny, we are not going unless we are the ones who lose to that team in the finals.
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Old 03-09-2014, 09:18 PM
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3 losses to St J provides a reason to exclude us . The job of the committee is more about exclusion than to include. It's a must win.
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Old 03-09-2014, 09:21 PM
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We could still have 7 in. Even more unlikely now that the brackets are out, but possible.

Dayton/UMass advance to quarterfinals.
GW/Richmond/SJU/SLU advance to the semi-finals.
Richmond over SJU in the finals.

7 should dance under that scenario. I don't like that scenario, though, because it does put Dayton as the 7th from the conference and Richmond is stealing a bid from someone. We'd have the weakest record in the conference at that point, but it should still get us in... we'd still be stronger than other bubble teams.
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Old 03-09-2014, 09:23 PM
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From what I saw from St Joe's today, there ain't no way we are losing to them a third time.
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Old 03-09-2014, 09:23 PM
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Don't see Richmond winning 4 games in 4 days.
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Old 03-09-2014, 09:33 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
We could still have 7 in. Even more unlikely now that the brackets are out, but possible.

Dayton/UMass advance to quarterfinals.
GW/Richmond/SJU/SLU advance to the semi-finals.
Richmond over SJU in the finals.

7 should dance under that scenario. I don't like that scenario, though, because it does put Dayton as the 7th from the conference and Richmond is stealing a bid from someone. We'd have the weakest record in the conference at that point, but it should still get us in... we'd still be stronger than other bubble teams.
I don't understand the confidence of this board. Having 6 or even 7 teams from a conference that has no teams in the top 15 and 1 team in the top 25 would unprecedented.

And most would say that Dayton is the 6th team right now based on the 2 losses to SJ.

And what happens within our own conference isn't our only possible obstacle. If enough teams win their conference tournys who are not expected to receive at-large bids then again we could be outside looking in.
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Old 03-09-2014, 09:34 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07 View Post
3 losses to St J provides a reason to exclude us . The job of the committee is more about exclusion than to include. It's a must win.
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Losing to RPI 41 Saint Joe's three times can't be worse than losing to RPI 147 Seton Hall two times can it?

The latter seems like a more logical automatic elimination criteria.

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Old 03-09-2014, 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
We could still have 7 in. Even more unlikely now that the brackets are out, but possible.

Dayton/UMass advance to quarterfinals.
GW/Richmond/SJU/SLU advance to the semi-finals.
Richmond over SJU in the finals.

7 should dance under that scenario. I don't like that scenario, though, because it does put Dayton as the 7th from the conference and Richmond is stealing a bid from someone. We'd have the weakest record in the conference at that point, but it should still get us in... we'd still be stronger than other bubble teams.

Crazy crazy thinking, but possible if other bubble teams in other conferences stumble early. I have another possible 7th A-10 team.

I am not going to pick all the games like you did, but even before today, I had a feeling LaSalle, who has under performed all season long, could go on another run and be the cinderella team from the A-10.

EDIT- OK here is some of the math- Lasalle would beat St. Louis, then Dayton in the Semis, then U Mass in the finals and we could have 7, assuming St. Joes early exit does not cost them an invite

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Old 03-09-2014, 09:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
I don't understand the confidence of this board. Having 6 or even 7 teams from a conference that has no teams in the top 15 and 1 team in the top 25 would unprecedented.

And most would say that Dayton is the 6th team right now based on the 2 losses to SJ.

I agree that 6 or 7 teams from the A 10 seems unprecedented and unusual, but the committee is not supposed to even consider conference at all. In fact, when they look at teams, they are supposed to completely strip any conference affiliation from consideration. Zero. As in conference affiliation is not part of the criteria whatsoever.

Also, the A 10 actually has three teams in the RPI Top 25 (national polls like the AP or ESPN polls are irrelevant).

Now, will the committee actually follow their stated criteria? That remains to be seen.

Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
And what happens within our own conference isn't our only possible obstacle. If enough teams win their conference tournys who are not expected to receive at-large bids then again we could be outside looking in.

Anything could happen (this is March Madness, after all), but keep in mind that Dance Card currently has 16 or 17 teams between Dayton and the Bubble Burst line. SJU was behind Dayton even before their home loss to LaSalle today. Dance Card has accurately predicted 73 of the last 74 at-large bids over the past two years.
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Old 03-09-2014, 10:15 PM
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First things first, gentlemen...WE MUST WIN ON THURSDAY!!

The guys can't face St. Joe's on Friday if they don't beat Fordham/George Mason on Thursday. One game at a time, gentlemen...one game at a time!
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Old 03-09-2014, 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
First things first, gentlemen...WE MUST WIN ON THURSDAY!!

The guys can't face St. Joe's on Friday if they don't beat Fordham/George Mason on Thursday. One game at a time, gentlemen...one game at a time!
Once again, we the fans can get ahead of ourselves. The team and coaches cannot.
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Old 03-09-2014, 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
EDIT- OK here is some of the math- Lasalle would beat St. Louis, then Dayton in the Semis, then U Mass in the finals and we could have 7, assuming St. Joes early exit does not cost them an invite
If the goal is to construct a scenario where the A10 gets 7, I'd give SJU the win over us. They need it more. Right now we are slightly ahead of them in terms of our profile. Plus, I went with Richmond instead of La Salle so that SJU could have another strong win on their resume. But if you think UD can't afford a 3rd loss to SJU, give UD the win and hope SJU's profile is strong enough without another win.

I'd say if we lose our 1st game, we're right at the bubble but probably still in. 60/40. I would have said one win would punch our ticket, but that was when I thought we would have a good RPI in the next round: VCU, UMass, SLU. SJU's RPI isn't as nice. Lose to them, and I still think we're in, but more like 80/20 instead of 100%. Depends a lot on how many other bubble teams make runs and how many bids are 'stolen' by taking the conference championship.
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Old 03-09-2014, 10:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Avid Flyer View Post
Not sure I understand these RPI wins as LaSalle was not a top 100 team when we beat them.

We get these top 50 and 100 wins based on where the team was at the time we beat them as some are not in that 50 or 100 bracket today. Never quite understood how these are figured. Because if LaSalle can be counted as another top 100 win then those teams we beat that were in the top 50 and have since dropped out would then be stricken from our wins in those categories.
Wrong. The committee has a sheet of the RPI wins and losses where they are right now, not where they were sometime during the season. That's why people root for teams they beat earlier in the season. The committee starts their deliberations this week on Tuesday.
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Old 03-09-2014, 11:14 PM
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I take it back - SJU still has the edge on us. I assumed that we had a better road/neutral record because we have a great record there. But they pretty much match us there with their own road/neutral record. We have a slightly better RPI, but they have fewer bad losses and have the season sweep, so I think they probably are still ahead of us. Though I'd like to trust the Dance Card and say we're ahead...
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Old 03-09-2014, 11:25 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
I take it back - SJU still has the edge on us. I assumed that we had a better road/neutral record because we have a great record there. But they pretty much match us there with their own road/neutral record. We have a slightly better RPI, but they have fewer bad losses and have the season sweep, so I think they probably are still ahead of us. Though I'd like to trust the Dance Card and say we're ahead...

Yeah, but look who they beat on road/neutral courts: Siena (181), Washington St. (221), Loyola MD (273), Penn (295), etc. Other than Dayton, their best road/neutral win of the season was at LaSalle (90). Our road/neutral wins are better...
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Old 03-09-2014, 11:30 PM
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BYU Big game of interest

If we lose to St. Joes, Our RPI goes from 39 to 42.5. Assuming that we are the 1st of the first four in. That moves us to last or second to last team in. Right on the edge of the bubble. In that scenario, how other bubble teams perform in conf tourney will determine whether the Flyer's get in. Which is the point of this thread and makes watching conference tournament games particularly relevant for Flyer fans this year!

The BYU game Monday night is huge. With a loss their RPI drops 9 spots and they are essentially out of the running. A win pretty well guarantees them a place in the dance. All flyer fans should be rooting for San Fran to beat BYU because that will open up one more ticket .
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Old 03-09-2014, 11:56 PM
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Not sure how BYU could ever feel safe. They have a good RPI and that's pretty much it. 4 bad losses, best win is Gonzaga but nothing to go with it. 8-9 away from home, 7-6 top 100. Not a bad profile, but they are on the bubble as much as anyone, and they have no good wins available to help them get off the bubble until Gonzaga - in which case they'd win their conference tourney. They might get a bid, but they won't be getting one over us, even if we lose our first game and they get to the finals. They only get in if nobody steals bids and the rest of the bubble generally performs poorly. The bigger concern is that Gonzaga loses to guarantee the WCC a 2nd bid. Hopefully Gonzaga wins their tourney to keep more at-large spots available. I'm not too concerned about BYU because they have exactly the same "wart" we do - bad losses - but more of them without the good wins we have to offset it.
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  #84  
Old 03-10-2014, 12:46 AM
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What worries me is if you look at Sagarin - the Flyers are ranked #54.

Our RPI might be at 42 or so, but I'm not sure any team ranked 54 gets an at large bid.

I know Sagarin is not the only thing the committee looks at, but I think it indicates that the Flyers still have work to do to convince the skeptics.

Win Thursday and win again Friday may be absolutely necessary to avoid the NIT.

One good thing is the Flyers' depth for back to back games compared to their opponents. Now may be where we see the advantage of having Gav and Davis and Pollard and Smith fresh and hungry against tired legs on the other side.

I probably won't get much done at work on Thursday and Friday...
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Old 03-10-2014, 08:53 AM
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I worry about Price's knees playing back to back (and hopefully to back to back) games.
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Old 03-10-2014, 08:59 AM
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I may have to avoid this board for the next few days as the pessimism is killing me. The kicker was I went to the A-10's web page this morning to check the final standings, and they show UMASS above us in the Standings Tab, even though their article clearly states we finished 5th, not 6th due to the tiebreaker.

While I realize that the standings are likely automated on this site to sort by conference record and then overall record, I am still offended by it.

I am sick of all the pessimism and negativity. Our team finished 9-1, is playing their best basketball of the year, and deserves to be in the tournament. If we don't get in, I will again be offended.
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Old 03-10-2014, 09:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I worry about Price's knees playing back to back (and hopefully to back to back) games.
Earlier in the season I might have worried, but I like the way Scoochie has grown and is playing now so I don't believe it is close to the issue it used to be.
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Old 03-10-2014, 09:05 AM
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Horizon League stealing a bid? Probably nit. Wisc-Green Bay's resume doesn't stack up.
What leagues could steal at large bids?
WCC - Yes
Others?
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Old 03-10-2014, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
Horizon League stealing a bid? Probably nit. Wisc-Green Bay's resume doesn't stack up.
What leagues could steal at large bids?
WCC - Yes
Others?
MAC - Toledo. RPI of 36...if we had their record and resume, plenty of us could put up a great argument for an at-large should we falter in the conference finals.

To me, Toledo isn't much different than Pitt (RPI 46)...both have no impressive wins but have (mostly) beaten everyone they're supposed to...but the MAC has seen 25-win teams (Akron) left out before so Toledo probably has to win the MAC...probably...
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Old 03-10-2014, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by The Gem View Post
I would love another shot at The Hawks. Our guys would be highly motivated.
Archie said on his show tht st joes created big matchup problems f or us I don't want to play them
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Old 03-10-2014, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by UDBrian View Post
Archie said on his show tht st joes created big matchup problems f or us I don't want to play them
Worst matchup for us in more ways than one. Archie says it's our worst matchup on the court, and they also have the lowest RPI of the top 4.
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Old 03-10-2014, 09:49 AM
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I think we all owe Wichita State a thanks for keeping the bubble bigger.
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Old 03-10-2014, 09:56 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
Worst matchup for us in more ways than one. Archie says it's our worst matchup on the court, and they also have the lowest RPI of the top 4.
Plus I just don't like the look of UD being 3 of Joes top 50 RPI wins and Joes being 3 of our top 50 RPI losses.

We need the St. Joes team that played LAS yesterday to shop up in Brooklyn.
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Old 03-10-2014, 10:56 AM
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Originally Posted by UDBrian View Post
Archie said on his show tht st joes created big matchup problems f or us I don't want to play them
I want to play them. The alternative is losing our first game!
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Old 03-10-2014, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by SC_Flyer View Post
I may have to avoid this board for the next few days as the pessimism is killing me. The kicker was I went to the A-10's web page this morning to check the final standings, and they show UMASS above us in the Standings Tab, even though their article clearly states we finished 5th, not 6th due to the tiebreaker.

While I realize that the standings are likely automated on this site to sort by conference record and then overall record, I am still offended by it.

I am sick of all the pessimism and negativity. Our team finished 9-1, is playing their best basketball of the year, and deserves to be in the tournament. If we don't get in, I will again be offended.
You do realize that the pessimism isn't necessarily directed at the team. It's directed at the NCAA tournament committee. I think they deserve to get in as of now, I just don't believe the committee feels as strongly as we do. History has shown that we can't depend on anything when we aren't ranked in the top 25.

Ever heard the saying "expect the worst and hope for the best"? Well, you're setting yourself up to be crushed by "knowing" they are in with one win.
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Old 03-10-2014, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by UDBrian View Post
Archie said on his show tht st joes created big matchup problems f or us I don't want to play them

It is what it is. In March, you don't get to choose who you play. We won't get to choose who we play in the Big Dance (if we make it) either. Just gotta put on the big boy pants and go out and win. Problem solved.
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