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2014-2015 Game Threads Specific threads dedicated to each home and away game for UD Men's Basketball.

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  #1  
Old 11-26-2014, 01:19 AM
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Illinois-Chicago Game Thread

After a pretty darn successful tourney in Puerto Rico the team returns to action Saturday at 2 PM.

Hopefully Ryan Bass makes his UD Debut.

Potential Starting Lineup:

G 0 D'Juan Miller 5'8" 170 JR Kent, WA
G 22 Jay Harris 6'1" 170 GS Aurora, IL
G 10 Marc Brown 6'4" 200 SR Dallas, TX
F 40 Jake Wiegand 6'8" 235 JR Herndon, VA
C 21 Tai Odiase 6'9" 210 FR Flossmoor, IL

Start of a 4 game stretch where we should win each game and then head to Fayetteville 7-1

Go Flyers! I hope everyone has a very safe Thanksgiving!

Last edited by lhsgolf19; 11-26-2014 at 08:45 AM..
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  #2  
Old 11-26-2014, 09:43 AM
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Bass will feel tall in his debut. He should be able to post Miller up.
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Old 11-29-2014, 01:17 PM
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The Flyers' website indicates that you can watch the game online today on FOXSportsGO. It gives three simple steps to follow and if your internet provider (mine is COX) carries Fox Sports, you should be able to stream the game online. I have followed the instructions exactly but our game is not shown scheduledat 2:00. Any other out-of-Ohio folks try to get the online streaming? Any luck?
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Old 11-29-2014, 01:44 PM
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Looks like same starting 5 for UD:

Smith, Davis, Sibert, Pierre, Scott

Also some GREAT news:

John Tisdell ‏@JohnTisdell · 3m3 minutes ago
Good news @DaytonMBB fans, Ryan Bass will make his season debut today. @DaytonTrueTeam
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  #5  
Old 11-29-2014, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Sid Louick View Post
The Flyers' website indicates that you can watch the game online today on FOXSportsGO. It gives three simple steps to follow and if your internet provider (mine is COX) carries Fox Sports, you should be able to stream the game online. I have followed the instructions exactly but our game is not shown scheduledat 2:00. Any other out-of-Ohio folks try to get the online streaming? Any luck?
I downloaded the app. FOXOH is not listed nor is the game. It does not look like the game will be streamed.
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Old 11-29-2014, 01:56 PM
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I wonder if the U will look into this.
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:06 PM
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Radio it is. Can't wait to see Bass today. Or hear him rather. One of my fantasy team's name is "The Bassman Cometh."
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by frisco flyer View Post
I downloaded the app. FOXOH is not listed nor is the game. It does not look like the game will be streamed.
Same for me. I think because my ATT Uverse on the West Coast does not have Fox Sports Ohio in standard definition. We have HD, but showing North Texas versus UTSA football!?!?!??! Frustrating ...
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  #9  
Old 11-29-2014, 02:13 PM
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Sluggish and undisciplined in the early going
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:14 PM
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4-3 UD at the first TV timeout
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:15 PM
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Krap so far.
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:19 PM
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Insert Pollard and watch the energy level pick up.

Whoever thought he'd be a transfer candidate, please bite your tongue.
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  #13  
Old 11-29-2014, 02:21 PM
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8-5 UD with 12 min left in the half
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:23 PM
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It sounds like we are not playing team offense. What happened to ball movement?
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:28 PM
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8 to 8 nine minutes to go - so much for my prediction of 100 for the Flyers...
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:28 PM
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Too much Puerto Rican rum last night.
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:28 PM
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10-10 8 min left in the half... Shooting 28% will do that ha
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:29 PM
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10-8 them after 12 minutes and Scott just lost the ball. Total crap that I can't see, but I can recognize crap when I hear it.
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:36 PM
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A flicker of life 19-14 us
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:38 PM
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Grateful to be able to listen to the game on WHIO, but I would like to see Bass in his first game.
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:38 PM
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19-14 UD with 4 min left in the half
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:38 PM
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Game threads and radio is a tough way to watch a game. The game thread is always so pessimistic. I would have thought we would have learned from last season. We'll have ups and downs but we'll be just fine. To quote Aaron Rodgers.."R.E.L.A.X".

Go Flyers!
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  #23  
Old 11-29-2014, 02:39 PM
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This sounds horrible
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:41 PM
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This FoxOhio telecast and stream are for what? If someone is in the area they will watch TV, not stream. Why advertise the stream on the Dayton Flyers site when many of us cannot watch it? Another cluster f... concerning streaming.
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:42 PM
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Looks like watching driver using clutch for first time.
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:42 PM
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Buckeyes are up 28-21
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I shaved my balls for this?
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:45 PM
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Thank God for remote clicker.
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:47 PM
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VCU getting beat down by Old Dominion. Also in first half, 30-16 ODU
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:48 PM
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Bass on the board. layup bucket!

Robinson also with a deuce.
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:49 PM
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Will Kendall Pollard ever learn to shoot FT's
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:49 PM
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27-16 UD at the half... Pierre has no points on 2 shots
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Old 11-29-2014, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 View Post
Pierre has no points on 2 shots
That will change in the 2nd half, guaranteed.
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  #33  
Old 11-29-2014, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Buckeyes are up 28-21
OSU qb Barrett carted off the field, there could be some late drama in this game.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:04 PM
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Flyers generally manage to play down to the competition in most home "buy" games. Even if they win this by 15-20 points, it certainly doesn't sound convincing.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:09 PM
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Good start to the 2nd half
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:10 PM
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33-16 After a Scott layup on a pick and roll from Scoochie
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:12 PM
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Swampy was right.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:12 PM
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We have 10 assists on 13 baskets. That is great team offense.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:15 PM
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40-20 UD with 15 min left... Sibert with 15
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:15 PM
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Can almost feel the pressure by Arch not to fall in love with the 3pt today. Work the paint.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:16 PM
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Not Pierre, but the offense changing gears.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:19 PM
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It's starting to be convincing.

UD 48-20 now.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:21 PM
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KP with a three--he used to make them at Simeon guys.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:21 PM
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Pollard with the 3... UD up 51-20 with 12:45 left
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:21 PM
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San Diego Flyer, Don't you hate it when you make a comment-- and the converse unfolds?

Last edited by San Diego Flyer; 11-29-2014 at 03:25 PM..
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:21 PM
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Love Bucky, "That is 10 points for the Scooch man and he is playing good."

Pollard with a 3... UIC takes a timeout because they cannot believe it? Warm up the bus!
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Love Bucky, "That is 10 points for the Scooch man and he is playing good."

Pollard with a 3... UIC takes a timeout because they cannot believe it? Warm up the bus!
And with a "baby" for emphasis.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:25 PM
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We have hit 7 of 10 on three's and Pollard at 100% for the year.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:25 PM
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The cheerleader they've focused on the past couple of time outs is cute.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
San Diego Flyer, Don't you hate it when you make a comment-- and the converse unfolds?
We average about 18 a game. Had 6 through 25 minutes.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:26 PM
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Old Dominion up by 15 on VCU with 12 minutes to go!
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
The cheerleader they've focused on the past couple of time outs is cute.
She even sounded cute on the radio.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:28 PM
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Did the rewind Viperstick. She's cute!
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:30 PM
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up 30, if we stay up 25 at 5 minute mark. I want to see:

Bass
Darrell Davis
Robinson
1 remaining player/Pierre
Walk on/Kyle Davis

Get some minutes. Important Jalen and Darrell D build some confidence, and that Bass gets to log minutes
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:31 PM
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Bucky says, "You know what makes me smile today?" As we all wait for which player he will talk about. And he says, " We haven't been to the monitor yet today."
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:34 PM
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61-26 UD with 7:25 left
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:34 PM
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Finally a 3 by D Davis. He has been in some kind of slump since the opener.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:34 PM
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know he's not hitting , but how does Bass play and jumper look?

(for anyone ACTUALLY Viewing on Fox or WHIO)
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:35 PM
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Question is - can we score 39 in seven minutes?
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:35 PM
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MIGHT hold UIC to under 40 points!
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 86 View Post
MIGHT hold UIC to under 40 points!
And they are averaging 67 against some decent competition.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:40 PM
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Just glad to see a half where we got the choke collar off. Nice to be home.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:44 PM
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I hate to be like this, but we need to win this game by 20+ points. They have cut it from 38 to 22. Many members of committee analyze the computer polls -- they have explicitly acknowledged this and margin of victory is key for sagarin, kenpom, etc.

This is the ugliness of college sports now, but a reality.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 86 View Post
know he's not hitting , but how does Bass play and jumper look?

(for anyone ACTUALLY Viewing on Fox or WHIO)
Jumper looks quick. He squeezed off 4 in 5 minutes!!!
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:46 PM
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67-35
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
i hate to be like this, but we need to win this game by 20+ points. They have cut it from 38 to 22.
67 - 35 = 32
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  #67  
Old 11-29-2014, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
I hate to be like this, but we need to win this game by 20+ points. They have cut it from 38 to 22.
.
Are you sure about that 22? My screen said 32.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted by shapanud View Post
67 - 35 = 32
I cannot subtract :-). It is unfortunate, but margin of victory really matters with sagarin and kenpom.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:51 PM
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This blowout feels pretty good. So many years we screwed around with the Stetsons and Towsons of the world and looked ugly in the process. This is what we should do to this level of opposition.
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:52 PM
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UD wins 75-41
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:55 PM
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Traditionally we haven't put beatdowns on teams we should. Often we scrambled to win by 3-5 or even drop to I think Akron and definitely Buffalo. So to win by 20-30 should tell us something about Archie and this team.

Way to Go guys!
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Old 11-29-2014, 03:56 PM
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Plenty of time left in ODU VCU game, but just don't think VCU will come back. Down 12-15 with under 5 minutes.

A10 not looking strong this year. Thus far.
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Old 11-29-2014, 04:00 PM
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UMASS with 1 tick left, down 1 to Harvard. a10 rpi keeps aplummeting
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Old 11-29-2014, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
I hate to be like this, but we need to win this game by 20+ points. They have cut it from 38 to 22. Many members of committee analyze the computer polls -- they have explicitly acknowledged this and margin of victory is key for sagarin, kenpom, etc.

This is the ugliness of college sports now, but a reality.
Margin of victory is not used in the kenpom calculation. It is used in the sagarin, to an extent, but running up the score doesn't help.

"In ELO_SCORE, the score determines what fraction of a victory was attained but since the maximum fraction is ONE(1.00), no matter how big the score is, it prevents running up the score to be that advantageous;" source: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/

I have never heard a committee member say anything about margin of victory, and do not know of a ranking system that rewards it.

Plenty of ugly in college sports, but margin of victory is not one that shows up in college basketball.
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Old 11-29-2014, 04:28 PM
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Originally Posted by UD_NY View Post
Margin of victory is not used in the kenpom calculation. It is used in the sagarin, to an extent, but running up the score doesn't help.

"In ELO_SCORE, the score determines what fraction of a victory was attained but since the maximum fraction is ONE(1.00), no matter how big the score is, it prevents running up the score to be that advantageous;" source: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/

I have never heard a committee member say anything about margin of victory, and do not know of a ranking system that rewards it.

Plenty of ugly in college sports, but margin of victory is not one that shows up in college basketball.
UDNY, respectfully you are wrong in substance with kenpom and just wrong with respect to sagarin. The committee does not look at "margin of victory," but kenpom, sagarin, and all other computer rankings use margin of victory in some way, shape, or form (whether it be points scored/points allowed, offensive and defensive efficiency which is about points scored and points allowed per possession) in determining your ranking. So margin of victory is absolutely critical now in college basketball. The committee pours over the computer rankings even though in RPI which is the key one, scores are irrelevant.


Kenpom
Technically margin of victory is not used, but offensive and defensive efficiency is used which is about how many points you are scoring and giving up per possession. If we would have only won by 20, we would have given up more per possession and/or scored less per possession which would have hurt our kenpom rating. Margin of victory is a great approximator for offensive and defensive efficiency in aggregate (it is really more complicated as offensive and defensive efficiency use factors like effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive/defensive rebounding percentage, and free throw rate -- but again to simplify the more you score and less you allow your opponents to score, the better your efficiency).

Also sagarin is built upon 1/3rd ELO which you reference and 2/3rd scoring margin matters. To quote the entire point of sagarin (you only quoted the first half). In ELO_SCORE, the score determines what fraction of a victory was attained but since the maximum
fraction is ONE(1.00), no matter how big the score is, it prevents running up the score to be that advantageous;
It is slightly less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS or GOLDEN_MEAN,
in which the score is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR,
BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games. The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different methods, with more total weight
to the two completely SCORE-BASED methods and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Source: http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

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Old 11-29-2014, 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
UDNY, respectfully you are wrong in substance with kenpom and just wrong with respect to sagarin. The committee does not look at "margin of victory," but kenpom, sagarin, and all other computer rankings use margin of victory in some way, shape, or form (whether it be points scored/points allowed, offensive and defensive efficiency which is about points scored and points allowed per possession) in determining your ranking. So margin of victory is absolutely critical now in college basketball. The committee pours over the computer rankings even though in RPI which is the key one, scores are irrelevant.

Kenpom
Technically margin of victory is not used. . .

Also sagarin is built upon 1/3rd ELO which you reference and 2/3rd scoring margin matters. To quote the entire point of sagarin (you only quoted the first half). In ELO_SCORE, the score determines what fraction of a victory was attained but since the maximum
fraction is ONE(1.00), no matter how big the score is, it prevents running up the score to be that advantageous. . .[/B][/U]


Source: http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm
Winning matters, by how much is not critical. The committee members may or may not use the rating for selection, especially Sagarin. In fact, they are far more likely to be used in seeding then selection.
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Old 11-29-2014, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by kiefaber455 View Post
This sounds horrible
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Will Kendall Pollard ever learn to shoot FT's
You always seem to disappear when things turn for the better. Didnt hear a word from you in the second half.

Must've been a prior commitment. Yeah. That's it.
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Old 11-29-2014, 05:08 PM
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UDNY, sorry but you are just simply wrong with respect to the computer polls. I don't know how to say it nicely. Moreover, what you bold above misrepresents both the Sagarin methodology and my point about kenpom.

You highlighted the ELO part of Sagarin. ELO does NOT use margin of victory or points, it is simply about whether a team wins or loses so running up the score does not matter in the ELO portion of the rating -- you are correct here. But the other 2 aspects of the sagarin ratings (the majority of the weighting) DO use how many points you score and how many points you allow (in other words, margin of victory). And to quote again, "The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different methods, with more total weight to the two completely SCORE-BASED methods and thus should be a good predictor in its own right." The score-based methods (in other words, the margin of victory) count the most. The point about not running up the score only applies to ELO. Sagarin may have a diminishing returns built in the score based models for margin of victory, I don't know.

With respect to kenpom, it is complex, but to simplify -- offensive and defensive efficiency are all about how many points you score and allow. So yes a 10 point victory helps you be more efficient (whether offensively or defensively or both) more than a 5 point victory so margin of victory matters in each game and for the season. Kenpom technically does not look at wins or losses and really only looks at points scored and points allowed (again this is simplified) -- but that means margin of victory and margin of loss matters.

Your legitimate argument is how the committee uses computer polls which is an eminently fair point and I may be overestimating their use.

But you are flat out wrong that "[w]inning matters, by how much is not critical." I would have to go do the calculations, but if Dayton was winning by larger margins (versus smaller) and losing by smaller margins (versus larger), UD would have a materially higher kenpom and sagarin rating. It is just a fact. For example, if we beat Texas A&M by 10 and lost to Uconn by 1, our kenpom and sagarin ratings would be much higher.

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Old 11-29-2014, 05:17 PM
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Absolutely spot on!
If winning/losing margins didn't matter, then why even post the outcome...just say Dipwad U beat Whozat and be done with it.
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Old 11-29-2014, 05:23 PM
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BTW, RPI still tool used most by committee which does not factor in margin of victory or loss. But committee admits to using computer polls and specifically cites kenpom and sagarin. Here is an interview with Ron Wellman in March 2014 (he is the chair of the NCAA Basketllball Selection Committee). Source is http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...ce-tournaments

Q. The Kenpom analytic service that a lot of coaches use to evaluate teams, I'm curious if that's part of your discussion at all. There's some dramatic swings in what a team's RPI is and what a teams Kenpom number is. I wonder if the Committee is aware of those situations.

RON WELLMAN: To me, the Committee is very aware of everything. The Committee looks at every piece of data that we can put our hands on.

Kenpom, RPI, all that data, we have a list of data points that we can use. Sagarin, the LRNC, it just goes on and on.

Various Committee members will emphasize and use that data to various degrees. Some of them will reply on certain data more than others. So it just depends upon the Committee member.

This process can be very subjective. Certain Committee members will value certain pieces of data more than others. All of that information is available and easily accessible by the Committee members.
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Old 11-29-2014, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
UDNY, sorry but you are just simply wrong with respect to the computer polls. I don't know how to say it nicely. Moreover, what you bold above misrepresents both the Sagarin methodology and my point about kenpom.

You highlighted the ELO part of Sagarin. ELO does NOT use margin of victory or points, it is simply about whether a team wins or loses so running up the score does not matter in the ELO portion of the rating -- you are correct here. But the other 2 aspects of the sagarin ratings (the majority of the weighting) DO use how many points you score and how many points you allow (in other words, margin of victory). And to quote again, "The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different methods, with more total weight to the two completely SCORE-BASED methods and thus should be a good predictor in its own right." The score-based methods (in other words, the margin of victory) count the most. The point about not running up the score only applies to ELO. Sagarin may have a diminishing returns built in the score based models for margin of victory, I don't know.

With respect to kenpom, it is complex, but to simplify -- offensive and defensive efficiency are all about how many points you score and allow. So yes a 10 point victory helps you be more efficient (whether offensively or defensively or both) more than a 5 point victory so margin of victory matters in each game and for the season. Kenpom technically does not look at wins or losses and really only looks at points scored and points allowed (again this is simplified) -- but that means margin of victory and margin of loss matters.

Your legitimate argument is how the committee uses computer polls which is an eminently fair point and I may be overestimating their use.

But you are flat out wrong that "[w]inning matters, by how much is not critical." I would have to go do the calculations, but if Dayton was winning by larger margins (versus smaller) and losing by smaller margins (versus larger), UD would have a materially higher kenpom and sagarin rating. It is just a fact. For example, if we beat Texas A&M by 10 and lost to Uconn by 1, our kenpom and sagarin ratings would be much higher.
I'll do the math for you. This is a good exercise.

The average margin of victory for at large selected teams last year was 7.48889. 3 possessions! Those are the 36 best teams not to receive automatic bids. 8 of those, or 22% had a average margin of victory of less then 5. 22% had a greater then 9.9 average margin of victory.

Three teams selected had a margin of victory of 2 or less points per game.

Dayton's margin of victory was 5.2 last year. Within the second standard deviation of selected teams.

Louisianna Tech had a margin of victory of 13.6 last year. That would have put them second to only Arizona if they had been selected for the tournament. It was also a higher margin of victory then all three of the at-large selected number 2 seeds. So if Margin of Victory is critical, why would they have been overlooked?

I can answer for you. Margin of Victory is not critical. The committee selected 35 teams with a lower margin of victory and left Louisiana Tech out.

LA Tech was 34 in Pomeroy and 36 in Sagarin. How can that be if Margin of Victory is Critical in those formulas?

I can answer for you. Margin of Victory is not critical.

Further, showing that 67% of one formula relies, in part, on "restricted" margin of victory is not making your point that margin of victory is critical for selection. Even the results of rankings and are showing that it isn't critical just inside the rankings, much less for selection.

Being critical is different then being a component of a formula that may or may not be used for selection.

But I'm willing to learn, so go ahead and provide me an example of margin of victory being critical in the selection process.
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Old 11-29-2014, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by DGO67 View Post
Absolutely spot on!
If winning/losing margins didn't matter, then why even post the outcome...just say Dipwad U beat Whozat and be done with it.
You mean just post the win loss record next to the team name on the screen? I almost never see that. . .

Margin of victory might come up during the telecast if it is significantly high or low. But I guarantee they talk about the win loss record more.

How about this, go to CBS, FOX, ESPN or any sight and see what is easier to find. Margin of victory or Win Loss numbers.

They even sort the standings on win loss percentage. If Margin of victory is critical, why don't they sort the standings by margin of victory? They seem to be stuck on Dipwad U (1-0) beat Whozat (0-1).
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Old 11-29-2014, 06:52 PM
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UD_NY, I was explicitly disagreeing your statement in which you commented "[m]argin of victory is not used in the kenpom calculation. It is used in the sagarin, to an extent, but running up the score doesn't help." You are WRONG on both counts. DO THE MATH SHOWING THAT MARGIN OF VICTORY OR MARGIN OF LOSS DOES NOT MATTER WITH KENPOM OR SAGARIN. You are simply wrong. It is basically one of the key factors in both methodolgies. I think you realize you were wrong here.

So two points: (1) (a) do computer polls rely on margin or victory or some other approximation = yes they do and you are simply wrong. (b) Do kenpom and sagarin rely on this as well = yes they do and you are simply wrong.

(2) How much does the selection committee use computer polls in their selection -- I have acknowledged that this is a debatable point in this thread by stating "[y]our legitimate argument is how the committee uses computer polls which is an eminently fair point and I may be overestimating their use." With your analysis above, you probably even convinced me that they matter a lot less than I thought.

This is my last comment on this thread as I do not know how you can debate a fact (and yes it is a fact) that computer polls (specifically kenpom and sagarin) rely on margin of victory (or margin of loss) or very similar metrics (kenpom offensive and defensive efficiency and for sagarin points scored and points allowed) as material factors in their rankings.

BTW, best methodology out there is dance card -- http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm -- in predicting NCAA births. Interestingly, they found evidence of bias toward the 6 major conferences (at the time) and those conferences with selection committee members.

BTW 2, Dayton moved up from 52 to 47 in kenpom today with only 7/68 games played (and Dayton game being one of them) -- they moved up because they were supposed to beat Illinois Chicago by like 20 and beat them by 34 (Dayton's defensive efficiency improved massively and offensive efficiency improved slightly).

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Old 11-29-2014, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
UD_NY, I was explicitly disagreeing your statement in which you commented "[m]argin of victory is not used in the kenpom calculation. It is used in the sagarin, to an extent, but running up the score doesn't help." You are WRONG on both counts. DO THE MATH SHOWING THAT MARGIN OF VICTORY OR MARGIN OF LOSS DOES NOT MATTER WITH KENPOM OR SAGARIN. You are simply wrong. It is basically one of the key factors in both methodolgies. I think you realize you were wrong here.
I did the math and showed you an example. Louisiana Tech was 34 and 36 in Kenpom and Saragin with a margin of victory of 13.6. It did not help. It puts them second behind Arizona amongst At-Large teams. Louisiana Tech was not selected.

Now, Kenpom adjusts for points per possession. I can add 100 points to any of Louisiana Techs games that they won, and they will not budge in any direction in offensive efficiency if I keep the points per possession the same. In fact, that is exactly what the formula does. It adjusts every team to have 100 possessions.

Likewise I can subtract 100 points (assuming an opponent scored more then 100 in a loss) and as long as the defensive points per possession don't go up or down. The numbers won't change.

It's points per possession, not margin of victory.

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
BTW 2, Dayton moved up from 52 to 47 in kenpom today with only 7/68 games played (and Dayton game being one of them) -- they moved up because they were supposed to beat Illinois Chicago by like 20 and beat them by 34 (Dayton's defensive efficiency improved massively and offensive efficiency improved slightly).
They did not move up because they beat the spread! I think you know that. Dayton increased the points per possession efficiency. That is why they moved up. Offensive Points Per Possession and Defensive Points Per Possession are measured independently.

I'll split it with you. Margin of Victory is used in part of the Sagarin calculation. It is not used in Kenpom.

"AdjO - Adjusted offensive efficiency - An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense.

AdjD - Adjusted defensive efficiency - An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense.

AdjT - Adjusted tempo - An estimate of the tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) a team would have against the team that wants to play at an average D-I tempo."

Nowhere in the calculation do I see Margin of Victory. Scoring more per possession that a team has, will increase offensive efficiency. Holding the average opponent to fewer points per possession will increase a team defensive efficiency ranking.

If they played 40 more minutes, and the Points Per Possession didn't change, and Dayton wins by 68, it's the same as winning by 34 in half the amount of possessions.

I enjoyed the back and forth.

Cheers and Happy Thanksgiving. (Sagarin does use it.)
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