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  #101  
Old 02-27-2014, 04:09 PM
TA111 TA111 is offline
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
If UD and X theoretically played each other this year, then IF the good/right UD team showed up, then UD would win, UD would perhaps win in a blowout. If the bad/wrong UD team showed up though, then UD would lose, UD would perhaps get blown out.

It would all depend on which UD team would show up.
This is irrelevant. It's about the selection criteria. If the Flyers win Saturday they will have 4 top 50 wins.
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  #102  
Old 02-27-2014, 04:17 PM
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Lundardi just had a chat on espn.com:

David (Columbus)


Does Dayton have a realistic shot?
Joe Lunardi (2:41 PM)




Not anymore.
forget about next four out, given that we may only be a 4 seed in the NIT forget the NCAA
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  #103  
Old 02-27-2014, 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted by rasta man View Post
Lundardi just had a chat on espn.com:
forget about next four out, given that we may only be a 4 seed in the NIT forget the NCAA
I think the key word in this is "realistic". Sure it's not realistic to expect 4 more wins from this team, especially after the way they looked Tuesday night, and I think that is what Lunardi is referring to. A team that he himself placed in the next four out range, 6 or 7 teams from the cut off line, with three top 50 rpi games remaining on its schedule couldn't be further from having no shot at making it. I think that Joe, like many of us, just don't see the Flyers being able to climb that mountain.
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  #104  
Old 02-27-2014, 06:45 PM
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Unfortunately, Joe does color for SJU radio, so he had a front row seat on Tuesday night...
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  #105  
Old 02-27-2014, 07:01 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
If it was ONLY your RPI that mattered.. It's who you played and who you beat.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask.../DAYTON/XAVIER
Thanks for the link:

Top 100 record - 7-6 and 8-7 -- still see a difference? I don't

3 of our 5 top 50 losses were at home - that doesn't help either.

When push comes to shove, I still think Xavier gets in and we don't if the season ended today.
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  #106  
Old 02-28-2014, 12:57 AM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
Thanks for the link:

Top 100 record - 7-6 and 8-7 -- still see a difference? I don't

3 of our 5 top 50 losses were at home - that doesn't help either.

When push comes to shove, I still think Xavier gets in and we don't if the season ended today.
twice as many top 50 games played and three times as many top 50 wins.

8-5 Road neutral Vs 5-8

as you point out they have one more top 100 Win than us.

Last edited by UD90; 02-28-2014 at 12:59 AM..
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  #107  
Old 02-28-2014, 01:05 AM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
I think the key word in this is "realistic". Sure it's not realistic to expect 4 more wins from this team, especially after the way they looked Tuesday night, and I think that is what Lunardi is referring to. A team that he himself placed in the next four out range, 6 or 7 teams from the cut off line, with three top 50 rpi games remaining on its schedule couldn't be further from having no shot at making it. I think that Joe, like many of us, just don't see the Flyers being able to climb that mountain.
The announcers for the SLU game were asking pretty much the same questions as the announcers for the UD StJ game. Poor offensive and defensive effort for a team fighting for seeding in the NCAA tournament.

Looks as though SLU may have peaked Just look at their last 5 games:

At LaSalle won by 2 65-63
Home vs VCU won 64-62
at GMason 89-85
Home vs GW 66-59
Home vs Duq lost 71-64

Are teams just getting tired this late in the season?

Tonight
#22 OSU lost to a 500 ball club Penn State
#17 Kentucky loses to Arkansas at Ky.
#21 Memphis loses to 500 ball club Houston
#20 Iowa loses to Indiana
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  #108  
Old 02-28-2014, 01:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Avid Flyer View Post
The announcers for the SLU game were asking pretty much the same questions as the announcers for the UD StJ game. Poor offensive and defensive effort for a team fighting for seeding in the NCAA tournament.

Looks as though SLU may have peaked Just look at their last 5 games:

At LaSalle won by 2 65-63
Home vs VCU won 64-62
at GMason 89-85
Home vs GW 66-59
Home vs Duq lost 71-64

Are teams just getting tired this late in the season?

Tonight
#22 OSU lost to a 500 ball club Penn State
#17 Kentucky loses to Arkansas at Ky.
#21 Memphis loses to 500 ball club Houston
#20 Iowa loses to Indiana
Possibly...very possibly.....teams are tired....it is a very long season. A "marathon" so to speak.
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  #109  
Old 02-28-2014, 01:58 PM
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Jerry Palm, who has been very accurate in his picks, has us still at 1st team out right now. We go 2-1 the last 3 (which is not easy) and we still have a good shot.

Forget the eye-tests, etc. We have more quality top 100 wins, a better win percentage versus top 100 teams, and a better road/neutral record than just about anybody on the bubble. Unfortunately, we have more bad losses with 3 than anyone on the bubble as well.

I was really upset with the loss Tuesday, but a win Saturday and we are on the right side of the bubble (saying that, I am not holding my breath).

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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  #110  
Old 02-28-2014, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Having 3x as many top 50 wins is "marginally" better? That's a good one. Actually we are much stronger in the win column than x. But we are worse in the bad loss column. We are much better in the road/neutral games metric. If good wins are the stronger metric then UD is stronger.
I'd bet anyone on the board that if we played X in Cincy this year that they'd beat us.


Sorry, but my demented sense of humor is the only thing keeping me sane through this U_ season. On that note, I removed the "D" because we have none at the moment.
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  #111  
Old 02-28-2014, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by pmcmullen View Post
I'd bet anyone on the board that if we played X in Cincy this year that they'd beat us.


Sorry, but my demented sense of humor is the only thing keeping me sane through this U_ season. On that note, I removed the "D" because we have none at the moment.
Not very funny. The fact is that Archie is the first UD coach that has not lost at X since you know who was president.

OK, I am worse than you.

Last edited by CE80; 02-28-2014 at 02:41 PM..
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  #112  
Old 02-28-2014, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Not very funny. The fact is that Archie is the first UD coach that has not lost at X since you know who was president.

OK, I am worse than you.
Huh? AM lost at X last year and the year before, didn't he?
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  #113  
Old 02-28-2014, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
Huh? AM lost at X last year and the year before, didn't he?
I guess I should have said AM would be the first coach to have a season where he has not lost at X since you know who was president.
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  #114  
Old 02-28-2014, 11:45 PM
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Good article from 2013 about dance card methodology and biases in committee including schools from conference committee members.

http://keepingscore.blogs.time.com/2...ittees-biases/
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  #115  
Old 03-01-2014, 08:59 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I guess I should have said AM would be the first coach to have a season where he has not lost at X since you know who was president.
Isn't that kind of like Wright State taking pride in the fact that they haven't lost a varsity football game in @ half a century?
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  #116  
Old 03-01-2014, 09:59 AM
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We need to pass Richmond, somehow, in the A10 standings, RPI and the dreaded smell test as there's no way we'll be the 7th A10 team selected...and it won't be easy.

Richmond's losses are to: Minnesota, UNC, @ Fla, @ St. L, @ VCU, GW, @WF, Ohio and @ St. B.

But more importantly, they've beaten UMass and St. Joes.

Beating UMass today get's us even with them in that category but the quality of our losses is much worse than the quality of theirs...plus we have the St. Joe's hurdle that will have to be addressed in the A10 tourny.

We (still) have a long season ahead of us.
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  #117  
Old 03-01-2014, 01:20 PM
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48 in RPI! 4-5 top 50 and 8-6 top 100 with 51-100 loss at Richmond 53.
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  #118  
Old 03-01-2014, 01:46 PM
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Those 4 top 50 wins are big and 2 of them on neutral court. That's big.
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  #119  
Old 03-01-2014, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
We need to pass Richmond, somehow, in the A10 standings, RPI and the dreaded smell test as there's no way we'll be the 7th A10 team selected...and it won't be easy.

Richmond's losses are to: Minnesota, UNC, @ Fla, @ St. L, @ VCU, GW, @WF, Ohio and @ St. B.

But more importantly, they've beaten UMass and St. Joes.

Beating UMass today get's us even with them in that category but the quality of our losses is much worse than the quality of theirs...plus we have the St. Joe's hurdle that will have to be addressed in the A10 tourny.

We (still) have a long season ahead of us.
I've said this a million times, conference standing is irrelevant. It's overall record. If conference record were so important Washington, who won the pac-12 last year would have been dancing.
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  #120  
Old 03-01-2014, 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
I've said this a million times, conference standing is irrelevant. It's overall record. If conference record were so important Washington, who won the pac-12 last year would have been dancing.
Agree. Also, the committee looks at who you played in conference. I am not saying woo is me, we had the hardest schedule but in conferences with unbalanced schedules, it comes into play.
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  #121  
Old 03-01-2014, 02:34 PM
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Rhody up 9 on the Arachnids, dishing an assist so far............
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  #122  
Old 03-01-2014, 02:41 PM
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Richmond now down by 19 at URI, late first half
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  #123  
Old 03-01-2014, 02:42 PM
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Wow, rhody is up 30-11 on Richmond with 2 and a half minutes left in the first half. That would be huge for us if it holds up...
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  #124  
Old 03-01-2014, 03:01 PM
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31-15 at the half, and didn't Richmond just lose to George Mason?
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  #125  
Old 03-01-2014, 03:04 PM
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I'm thinking the loss of Lindsay is finally catching up to them.
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Old 03-01-2014, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
I've said this a million times, conference standing is irrelevant. It's overall record.
Then why does the RPI and Selection Committee take into account Strength of Schedule?

If overall record mattered we'd be playing the likes of IPFW and St. Francis every non-conference game. We don't for a reason...and the reason is that who you play matters more than overall record.
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Old 03-01-2014, 03:24 PM
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Richmond down 39-16, 15:55 to go!
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Old 03-01-2014, 03:33 PM
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Richmond down 46-22, under 12:00
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Old 03-01-2014, 03:35 PM
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Does anyone know what the RPI projects to be with this win?
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Old 03-01-2014, 03:43 PM
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Assuming Richmond loses, we just caught them in the standings at 8-6, and we are better overall at 20-9 to 18-11. I believe our RPI is now 48. Not sure what theirs would be with a loss. Edit: It is 54 now, so it would be worse than that.

Edit#2: Richmond plays VCU Thursday so we could easily finish 9-7 to their 8-8.

Last edited by longtimefan; 03-01-2014 at 04:00 PM..
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Old 03-01-2014, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Then why does the RPI and Selection Committee take into account Strength of Schedule?

If overall record mattered we'd be playing the likes of IPFW and St. Francis every non-conference game. We don't for a reason...and the reason is that who you play matters more than overall record.
They take into account overall strength of schedule. Where you place in conference is not a criteria used.
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Old 03-01-2014, 03:59 PM
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Old 03-01-2014, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
They take into account overall strength of schedule. Where you place in conference is not a criteria used.
You may have already said this, but what some people are missing is that conference standings are not significant because of the unbalanced schedules.
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Old 03-01-2014, 06:36 PM
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Dayton first out on Dance Card BEFORE UMass.

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Old 03-01-2014, 07:49 PM
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Is there any way we are out if we finish out the regular season with wins v SL and Rich, or do we still have to make a good show at Brooklyn???
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Old 03-01-2014, 08:49 PM
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One reason we make the dance...
4-5 against the Top 50.

Look at the rest of the bubble teams and teams in the field that are 10 seeds or higher. Not many have that type of Top 50 record.
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Old 03-01-2014, 08:56 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
One reason we make the dance...
4-5 against the Top 50.

Look at the rest of the bubble teams and teams in the field that are 10 seeds or higher. Not many have that type of Top 50 record.

Very true. On the other hand, though, we have more weird losses than most of those teams. Therein lies the dilemma...
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Old 03-01-2014, 10:50 PM
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This is comical:

49 Oklahoma State (18-10, 6-9 Big 12), .161 / Best Win: vs. Louisiana Tech .66



http://kpisports.net/
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Old 03-01-2014, 10:52 PM
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Originally Posted by EmmetStFlyerFan View Post
Is there any way we are out if we finish out the regular season with wins v SL and Rich, or do we still have to make a good show at Brooklyn???
If we somehow win at SLU and at home against Richmond and we win 1 in Brooklyn, we play ourselves beyond the First Four imo.

History poses a problem though because aside from when we won the A10 tourney and got to a 4-seed, every other year we were seeded worse than expected or we didn't make it:

1998 - out
2000 - basically last one in when we thought we were safely in
2004 - 10-seed when we expected a little better
2009 - 11-seed when we expected a little better
2010 - out

So. If we end the season on the bubble, it's a 3-seed in the NIT. If we think we are in....toss up

Last edited by Buster Goode; 03-01-2014 at 10:55 PM..
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  #140  
Old 03-01-2014, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
This is comical:

49 Oklahoma State (18-10, 6-9 Big 12), .161 / Best Win: vs. Louisiana Tech .66

Unfortunately, they just beat Kansas. They also have wins over Texas, Colorado, and Memphis. The key for them: Only one sub-100 loss...
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Old 03-02-2014, 12:09 AM
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Yep Oklahoma st just passed us in the bubble pecking order.

Btw, they have beat Kansas, Texas, Colorado, Memphis, La Tech, and WVU. Just to add some to FlyerGuyers list.

Now 7-10 top 100 and 4-9 top 50. If they would have lost, 3-10 top 50 and 6-11 top 100, I think they would have been wrong side of the bubble.

Anyway, besides the great win, bad day for us as most bubble teams won.
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Old 03-02-2014, 12:44 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
...Anyway, besides the great win, bad day for us as most bubble teams won.
Yeah, it seems that even when we win, we can't win.
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Old 03-02-2014, 12:59 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Yeah, it seems that even when we win, we can't win.
Bubble watch this time of year is like watching water boil. Nothing much changes or happens while I watch it.
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Old 03-02-2014, 01:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Avid Flyer View Post
Bubble watch this time of year is like watching water boil. Nothing much changes or happens while I watch it.
So, stop watching!
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Old 03-02-2014, 01:48 AM
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Palm has us in first 4!

Don't understand how Cal & Providence are the 2 ahead of us?!?!?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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Old 03-02-2014, 02:29 AM
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http://network.yardbarker.com/colleg...ry_25/15882922
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Old 03-02-2014, 07:37 AM
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Lunardi, in last night's comments, didn't even have us in the last 4 out...he seems to be the most reliable. Not a good sign.
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:08 AM
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http://dailybracket.wordpress.com/

This guy updates his Bracket daily and as of this morning has UD as the last team in, 11-seed, in the Play-in game, vs......


..._avier.
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Palm has us in first 4!

Don't understand how Cal & Providence are the 2 ahead of us?!?!?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
I find it interesting that he has Tennessee among First Four Out, even with their showing against Vandy yesterday. Don't know enough about UT's resume, but maybe a decent win over a good team means more than a big win over a so-so team. Hope we can get 3-4 more decent wins between now & St. Patty's Day!
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
I find it interesting that he has Tennessee among First Four Out, even with their showing against Vandy yesterday. Don't know enough about UT's resume, but maybe a decent win over a good team means more than a big win over a so-so team. Hope we can get 3-4 more decent wins between now & St. Patty's Day!
Simple SEC should only be a two bid league this year.
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:29 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
http://dailybracket.wordpress.com/

This guy updates his Bracket daily and as of this morning has UD as the last team in, 11-seed, in the Play-in game, vs......


..._avier.
He must have changed it right after you posted, because he now has us facing Arkansas in a play-in game. Still, he has us in, and has both us and Gangsta U playing at The Arena in the First Four.

And not to , but I'm not totally sure how I'd react to seeing _avier playing in the NCAA on our home floor. All of these, in descending order from "classy" to "classless", are possibilities:

-Root for them, in an effort to suck-up if a NBE expansion were to take place (and it looks good on a national stage to show support for a former rival);
-Neither cheer for or say anything derogatory against them, but merely root for their opponent to play well; or
-Heckle the hell out of them, including possibly comments like "You can't win here" if it looks like they're going down to certain defeat in the closing minutes. I realize that's shallow, but I'd feel better about myself that way.

I guess it would all depend on how they react to having to come to UD to play again, even though our Flyers wouldn't be the opponent.

At least, we wouldn't be the opponent on the court. In the stands, however...
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  #152  
Old 03-02-2014, 10:59 AM
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Lunardi just tweeted this:
"OUT: Prov, Neb, StJohn, FlaSt. NEXT: Mizzou, Day, SoMiss, Marq. MORE: Gtown, LaTech, Utah, Richmond."

Yesterday's bubble teams did not do us in any favors, Lunardi only moved us up one spot from the last bracketology. I don't understand why Lunardi isn't giving us as much love as the other guys. Might be because he saw that beatdown Tuesday and most others didn't. Either way, he does not seem very impressed with our resume and I am starting to think that it's going to take a win at SLU for him to put us in the field.
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Old 03-02-2014, 11:35 AM
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Who cares about lunardi. You do know that he was about the 38th most accurate bracket guesser last year. Many of the others have us in the last four. Most don't have Neb any where near making the cut. St Johns has one top 50 win and we have four. Lunardi is smoking something funny.
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  #154  
Old 03-02-2014, 11:56 AM
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I think that it's just going to come down to whether or not the committee is able to look past our bad losses in favor of our strong record vs. the top 50 and top 100, which they should, it's been said that good wins weigh more than bad losses. I saw someone post this on the A10 board, not sure if it is accurate I didn't check all the teams but:

"Dayton now has more Top 50 RPI wins than:
Wichita St, Virginia, Kentucky, New Mexico, SD State, VCU, Gonzaga, UConn, GW, Oregon, BYU, So Miss, Toledo, Memphis, Xavier, Minnesota, Pitt, Cal, Missouri, Okla St, Tenn, Nebraska, Richmond, Prov, Fla St, Saint Mary's, St John's, LSU, Marquette, and anyone else who thinks they're on the bubble."

Right now if you compare our blind resume to all the other bubble teams for the most part we are better in every category except for bad losses. You would think that would be enough for the selection committee but we all know there's a lot more to it than that.
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  #155  
Old 03-02-2014, 12:07 PM
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Daily Bracket now has UD as 11 seed playing 6 seed Kansas State in Milwaukee sub-regional...awaiting winner of 3 seed Michigan versus 14 seed (are old friends) Iona.
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Old 03-02-2014, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
I think that it's just going to come down to whether or not the committee is able to look past our bad losses in favor of our strong record vs. the top 50 and top 100, which they should, it's been said that good wins weigh more than bad losses. I saw someone post this on the A10 board, not sure if it is accurate I didn't check all the teams but:

"Dayton now has more Top 50 RPI wins than:
Wichita St, Virginia, Kentucky, New Mexico, SD State, VCU, Gonzaga, UConn, GW, Oregon, BYU, So Miss, Toledo, Memphis, Xavier, Minnesota, Pitt, Cal, Missouri, Okla St, Tenn, Nebraska, Richmond, Prov, Fla St, Saint Mary's, St John's, LSU, Marquette, and anyone else who thinks they're on the bubble."

Right now if you compare our blind resume to all the other bubble teams for the most part we are better in every category except for bad losses. You would think that would be enough for the selection committee but we all know there's a lot more to it than that.
Totally agree on: (1) good wins over bad losses + road/neutral; and (2) blind resume.

My big worry is committee basis (as dance card methodology describes). We need to get at least 1 of the next 2. Let's win both and make it easy on the committee.
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Old 03-02-2014, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Who cares about lunardi. You do know that he was about the 38th most accurate bracket guesser last year. Many of the others have us in the last four. Most don't have Neb any where near making the cut. St Johns has one top 50 win and we have four. Lunardi is smoking something funny.
Lunardi has always had a woodie against UD. First and foremost, he is a St. Joe hack. He considers St. Joe as a direct competitor to UD and does everything in his power to put down UD. He'll only have us in when he is forced to--when his mole tells him we're in.
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Old 03-02-2014, 02:15 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Lunardi, in last night's comments, didn't even have us in the last 4 out...he seems to be the most reliable. Not a good sign.
I believe this is incorrect about Lunardi being most reliable. I cannot remember what thread it was but somebody posted a list ranking all the "bracketologist" and Lunardi was barely in the top 1/3 of the list.
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Old 03-02-2014, 03:00 PM
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I'm just happy not to be Notre Dame this year. (for what it's worth)
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Old 03-02-2014, 03:01 PM
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March "madness" continue's.......

Bottom line, Lunardi is no friend of UD. We have alot of work to do---and 2 weeks to do it in.

To me the bracketologists are maddening and if history is any indication (and I would bet it is...) we cannot "count" on any help from anyone. Therefore, we need to win as many games as we can in the A-10 tournament, at least split the next 2 or better (though I don't believe we have a 50/50 chance to beat St. Louis on Wednesday) and hope that our late season wins against the likes of UMass/Richmond etc. in the midst of a solid February/March get it done for us!

On some levels I can't believe that we're all talking about the Flyers and the NCAA tournament in the same sentence after watching this team get derailed in the January losing streak----but we are! March "madness" after all---I hope were a part of it!
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Old 03-02-2014, 03:51 PM
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Agree College B-Ball Fan about no help. I honestly cannot see how we are behind Cal, Minnesota, or Tenn. on any ranking (but bias huge for Pac-12, Big 10, and SEC). I posted the following to land of holy hoops.

------

Totally agree about Tenn., I don't understand it. I would put Minnesota and Cal in the same category.

Tenn = 48 RPI; 2-6 top 50, 5-2 51-100 (so 7-8 top 100), 10-3 101+; road/neutral 5-8 with best win Xavier neutral 42, then LSU away 62, then Wake Forest neutral 116.
Minn = 47 RPI; 3-7 top 50, 3-3 51-100 (so 6-10 top 100),11-2 101+; road/neutral 3-9 with best win Rich away 62, then Penn State away 108, then Nwestern away 128 (those are their only 3 away/neutral wins!)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... /MINN/TENN
Cal = 51 RPI; 3-9 top 50, 3-0 51-100 (so 6-9 top 100); 12-2 101+; road/neutral 6-8 with best Oregon away 33, then Stanford away 41, then neutral Arkansas 57
Day = 48 RPI; 3-5 top 50; 4-1 51-100 (so 7-6 top 100); 13-3 101+; road/neutral 8-5 with best Gonzaga neutral 25, then Cal neutral 51, then away Ole Miss 92.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... CAL/DAYTON
X = 42 RPI; 3-4 top 50; 5-3 51-100 (so 8-7 top 100); 12-2 101+; 5-8 road/neutral with best Cincy neutral 17, then St. John's away 60, then away Bama 121.
Prov = 56 RPI; 2-5 top 50; 5-4 51-100 (so 7-9 top 100); 12-1 101+; 7-7 road/neural with best St. John's away 60, then Lasalle neutral 84, then neutral Vandy 96.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... AVIER/PROV

If I take 3 of these 6, I take Providence, X, and Dayton. Tenn, Minn, and Cal = worse top 50 than X/Dayton; worse top 100 than X, Providence, Dayton; worse road/neutral than X, Providence, Dayton (Tenn actually comparable to X); Providence best with 1 bad loss; Minn, Cal, and X with 2 bad losses; and Dayton + Tenn. 3 bad losses.

Besides pointing to 1 nice win for Cal (Arizona), Minn (Wisconsin), and Tenn (Va.), I simply do not see why these teams would be in. And they each got a high profile win, but had a ton of shots at top 25 wins -- Minnesota has had 8 shots (1 for 8); Tenn. 5 (1 for 5); and Cal 6 (1 for 6). Dayton has had 4 (2 for 4); X has had 4 (2 for 4); and Providence 5 (1 for 5).

Last edited by ruechalgrin; 03-02-2014 at 03:52 PM.. Reason: typo
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Old 03-02-2014, 06:23 PM
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From Jeff Eisenberg's blog on the bubble impacts from yesterday's games:

Dayton (20-9, 8-6): The possibility of Dayton hosting a First Four game at its own arena continues to become more realistic. The Flyers took another step toward slipping into the field of 68 on Saturday, earning a quality 86-79 home win over UMass. An 8-6 record against the RPI top 100 is strong evidence in Dayton's favor, especially since it includes victories over likely NCAA tournament teams George Washington, Cal and Gonzaga in addition to the Minutemen. What's holding the Flyers back and dragging their RPI into the mid-50s are ugly losses to USC, Illinois State and Rhode Island. Dayton has two games remaining, one at Saint Louis and the other at home against Richmond. A sweep might be enough to lock up a bid and a split would still leave the Flyers hope entering the Atlantic 10 tournament.

More at http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-...13--ncaab.html
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Old 03-02-2014, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer69ers View Post
I'm just happy not to be Notre Dame this year. (for what it's worth)

Notre Who?
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Old 03-02-2014, 07:09 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Notre Who?
I still have a button around here somewhere that says exactly that!
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Old 03-02-2014, 07:48 PM
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One more team that I scratch my head about is BYU (already discussed Tenn., Minn., and Cal).

They have better RPI due to SOS. Beyond that, almost identical, except that they have 4 bad losses! Both of us 3-5 top 50, 4-1 51-100 (we really need St. Bonnie's to win to get into top 100); BYU 13-4 101+ and we are 13-3. Road/neutral BYU 7-9, we are 8-4.

So most have them in due to low 30s RPI.

BYU = +RPI/SOS; UD = + less bad losses; UD = + better road/neutral; UD = + better top 50 wins with 13, 25, 29 (BYU 25, 26, 41) and if CAL sneaks up a spot or 2, we have another top 50 win.

Again, make the blind test and who gets in, Dayton, I just don't understand the case for BYU.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...son/BYU/DAYTON
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Old 03-02-2014, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Notre Who?
Exactly.
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
One more team that I scratch my head about is BYU (already discussed Tenn., Minn., and Cal).

They have better RPI due to SOS. Beyond that, almost identical, except that they have 4 bad losses! Both of us 3-5 top 50, 4-1 51-100 (we really need St. Bonnie's to win to get into top 100); BYU 13-4 101+ and we are 13-3. Road/neutral BYU 7-9, we are 8-4.

So most have them in due to low 30s RPI.

BYU = +RPI/SOS; UD = + less bad losses; UD = + better road/neutral; UD = + better top 50 wins with 13, 25, 29 (BYU 25, 26, 41) and if CAL sneaks up a spot or 2, we have another top 50 win.

Again, make the blind test and who gets in, Dayton, I just don't understand the case for BYU.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...son/BYU/DAYTON
It's the "eye test" of course.

"I" know BYU is a safe pick and no one will criticize me for going with them (plus I'd like to get press box tickets for next years' football games). That's all you need to know.
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Old 03-02-2014, 10:29 PM
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http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/03...eals.html?rh=1

I know this is something that happens most, if not all years, and is always interesting to get media member's perspectives when they are tasked to select the NCAA field. I have seen Andy Katz write about this mock selection committee in the past and this guy's experiences were similar. Unfortunately for us UD fans, they came to the conclusion that UD was one of the first four out. Interesting none the less.
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Old 03-02-2014, 10:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer Al View Post
http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/03...eals.html?rh=1

I know this is something that happens most, if not all years, and is always interesting to get media member's perspectives when they are tasked to select the NCAA field. I have seen Andy Katz write about this mock selection committee in the past and this guy's experiences were similar. Unfortunately for us UD fans, they came to the conclusion that UD was one of the first four out. Interesting none the less.
This mock selection was done back when we were below .500 in conference.
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Old 03-02-2014, 10:55 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
This mock selection was done back when we were below .500 in conference.
Which means now they'll have to come up with another excuse for leaving us out.
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Old 03-02-2014, 11:05 PM
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Originally Posted by bobber View Post
Which means now they'll have to come up with another excuse for leaving us out.
If we earn a bid we'll get a bid.

We still have work to do. If we take care of business, we'll punch a ticket. If we don't, we'll get punched in the gut...again!

I like the ticket punch myself.
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Old 03-03-2014, 12:25 AM
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All I want are consistent rules applied to everybody.
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Old 03-03-2014, 07:41 AM
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I've already stated my opinion of Pitt and further review of the SEC makes me wonder where and how the NCAA Committee will handle the SEC, more specifically, Georgia.

UGA stands at 10-6 and is a strong 3rd in the SEC but their RPI is in the low 80's...btw, UGA's last 2 games are very winnable which will give them a favorable seed in the SEC tourney. The SEC may only get 3 bids (yeah, right!) but more likely 4-5...which means that teams like Mizzou (RPI 52) - 2 full games behind UGA - could get chosen ahead of UGA...but if you take Mizzou over UGA, you also have to consider all the teams surrounded by Mizzou (LSU/Ole Miss/A&M all 8-8) as well as Ark and Tenn (9-7).

The SEC is going to be an interesting watch and will test TA111's theory that wins matter, not conference record. And every bid above 3 that the SEC gets will take 1 away from the A10.

The Big12 - Oklahoma State for sure and WVa if they win their last 2 against NCAA locks KU and OU - could also be interesting.

Regardless, the Selection Sunday post-bracket analysis show will undoubtedly be interesting.
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Old 03-03-2014, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by bobber View Post
All I want are consistent rules applied to everybody.
Noble request. It'll never happen.
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Old 03-03-2014, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I've already stated my opinion of Pitt and further review of the SEC makes me wonder where and how the NCAA Committee will handle the SEC, more specifically, Georgia.
Georgia will indeed be interesting. The committee has typically severely penalized teams that did not challenge themselves in the ooc. Georgia did play Davidson., GA Tech, Temple and Nebraska at home. They played Colorado and GW on the road, however, they lost all those games.
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Old 03-03-2014, 08:17 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Georgia will indeed be interesting. The committee has typically severely penalized teams that did not challenge themselves in the ooc. Georgia did play Davidson., GA Tech, Temple and Nebraska at home. They played Colorado and GW on the road, however, they lost all those games.

Have you seen Pitt's OCC SOS? >200.
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Old 03-03-2014, 08:21 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Regardless, the Selection Sunday post-bracket analysis show will undoubtedly be interesting.
Baloney! The post-bracket analysis is only going to b*tch and moan about what BCS teams didn't make it. There will be no hard-nosed questions asked of the committee chair as to why they snubbed a non-BCS school in favor of a BCS school with worse credentials.
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Old 03-03-2014, 08:21 AM
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Old 03-03-2014, 08:36 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Have you seen Pitt's OCC SOS? >200.
Wow. I don't get that one. Dance Card (as of Friday's games) has Pitt in and Georgia way down. Pitt's best (and only win of significance) is Stanford. The rest of their better wins are against mid-pack ACC teams. However, no crappy losses.
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Old 03-03-2014, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
Love the Avatar Rollo.
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Old 03-03-2014, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Georgia will indeed be interesting. The committee has typically severely penalized teams that did not challenge themselves in the ooc. Georgia did play Davidson., GA Tech, Temple and Nebraska at home. They played Colorado and GW on the road, however, they lost all those games.
Good point. The committee has repeatedly said that you must schedule in the OOC, but you also must win some of those games. The Flyers OOC may be their saving grace this year.
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Old 03-03-2014, 08:52 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I've already stated my opinion of Pitt and further review of the SEC makes me wonder where and how the NCAA Committee will handle the SEC, more specifically, Georgia.

UGA stands at 10-6 and is a strong 3rd in the SEC but their RPI is in the low 80's...btw, UGA's last 2 games are very winnable which will give them a favorable seed in the SEC tourney. The SEC may only get 3 bids (yeah, right!) but more likely 4-5...which means that teams like Mizzou (RPI 52) - 2 full games behind UGA - could get chosen ahead of UGA...but if you take Mizzou over UGA, you also have to consider all the teams surrounded by Mizzou (LSU/Ole Miss/A&M all 8-8) as well as Ark and Tenn (9-7).

The SEC is going to be an interesting watch and will test TA111's theory that wins matter, not conference record. And every bid above 3 that the SEC gets will take 1 away from the A10.

The Big12 - Oklahoma State for sure and WVa if they win their last 2 against NCAA locks KU and OU - could also be interesting.

Regardless, the Selection Sunday post-bracket analysis show will undoubtedly be interesting.
The SEC will be the most interesting of the big conferences. If the committee sticks with their criteria from years past Georgia won't get selected. Remember Alabama a couple of years ago actually won the SEC regular season title but didn't get an invite because of their terrible OOC.
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:01 AM
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In 2001, Georgia was 16-14 and got an at-large bid...they have a history of getting bids regardless of record...which is why I'm focusing on them.
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:18 AM
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I've written something similar to this before, but I wish the NCAA Selection Committee would do the right thing and take a lot of the subjectivity out of the selections. Here's my suggestion:
Keep the conference tournament champion selections (no way you can't recognize them) and then go straight down the RPI and take the rest of the teams eliminating the following:
Teams with sub .500 conference records
Teams with sub .500 overall records
Right now, Okla St., Baylor, and Minnesota would be eliminated before us. Would it be great to know where you actually stood with your NCAA chances?
The Selection Committee can still have their get-together for a few days and do all the seeding.

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Old 03-03-2014, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by jumpin' joe View Post
Here's my suggestion:
Keep the conference tournament champion selections (no way you can't recognize them) and then go straight down the RPI and take the rest of the teams eliminating the following:

Teams with sub .500 overall records
.
My fear with this is that our already difficult task of getting schools like Pitt, Alabama or Miss to play us home and home, will be even tougher as schools elect to load up on nothing but cupcake home games in the out of conference. Most of them do already anyways though.
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:27 AM
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The only projection I follow anymore:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Just updated...

Last Four In.
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  #187  
Old 03-03-2014, 09:30 AM
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
Lunardi has always had a woodie against UD. First and foremost, he is a St. Joe hack. He considers St. Joe as a direct competitor to UD and does everything in his power to put down UD. He'll only have us in when he is forced to--when his mole tells him we're in.
Seems like I say this every year. Lunardi does not have a woodie against UD. If anything, he likes UD, he's certainly more "aware" of the school and program than many of the other teams in his bracket. Both his sister and brother in law graduated from UD and still reside in the area. Every time St Joes is in town, Lurnardi speaks at one of the agonis club lunches, which is basically a group of old UD athletes from around town that have guest speakers talk about sports and their experiences both in and outside the lines of sports, tell a bunch of raunchy jokes and enjoy each other's company. You may or may not like his brackets, how he compares to others I have not a clue, but the truth is, if he's had UD outside of the NCAA for the last several years, well he's been right.

This year is like many seasons of recent history, UD has accomplished a lot of good things that have placed them in consideration, but they've also hit enough stumbling blocks along the way to give one pause. They have a golden chance to toss aside those stumbling blocks in the next 2 weeks, and it doesn't really matter where Lunardi (or anyone else) has them in his current bracketology. Win the next 2 and everybody will have them somewhere in the field. Loss the next 2 and you won't be able to find them with a search warrent. Split the next two, and we're up for debate.
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Seems like I say this every year. Lunardi does not have a woodie against UD. If anything, he likes UD, he's certainly more "aware" of the school and program than many of the other teams in his bracket. Both his sister and brother in law graduated from UD and still reside in the area. Every time St Joes is in town, Lurnardi speaks at one of the agonis club lunches, which is basically a group of old UD athletes from around town that have guest speakers talk about sports and their experiences both in and outside the lines of sports, tell a bunch of raunchy jokes and enjoy each other's company. You may or may not like his brackets, how he compares to others I have not a clue, but the truth is, if he's had UD outside of the NCAA for the last several years, well he's been right.

This year is like many seasons of recent history, UD has accomplished a lot of good things that have placed them in consideration, but they've also hit enough stumbling blocks along the way to give one pause. They have a golden chance to toss aside those stumbling blocks in the next 2 weeks, and it doesn't really matter where Lunardi (or anyone else) has them in his current bracketology. Win the next 2 and everybody will have them somewhere in the field. Loss the next 2 and you won't be able to find them with a search warrent. Split the next two, and we're up for debate.
I stand by my opinion :-)
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Seems like I say this every year. Lunardi does not have a woodie against UD. If anything, he likes UD, he's certainly more "aware" of the school and program than many of the other teams in his bracket. Both his sister and brother in law graduated from UD and still reside in the area. Every time St Joes is in town, Lurnardi speaks at one of the agonis club lunches, which is basically a group of old UD athletes from around town that have guest speakers talk about sports and their experiences both in and outside the lines of sports, tell a bunch of raunchy jokes and enjoy each other's company. You may or may not like his brackets, how he compares to others I have not a clue, but the truth is, if he's had UD outside of the NCAA for the last several years, well he's been right.

This year is like many seasons of recent history, UD has accomplished a lot of good things that have placed them in consideration, but they've also hit enough stumbling blocks along the way to give one pause. They have a golden chance to toss aside those stumbling blocks in the next 2 weeks, and it doesn't really matter where Lunardi (or anyone else) has them in his current bracketology. Win the next 2 and everybody will have them somewhere in the field. Loss the next 2 and you won't be able to find them with a search warrent. Split the next two, and we're up for debate.
My girlfriend and her brother went to tOSU and I still hate OSU.

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Old 03-03-2014, 09:58 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
The only projection I follow anymore:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Just updated...

Last Four In.
They have UD at 44
UDPride has us at 49
CBSSports has us at 49
TeamRankings has us at 49
ESPN has us at 50.

I agree that at 44 we're inside the bubble...but he's the only one anywhere giving us any break on the RPI. What's he doing that the others aren't?
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Old 03-03-2014, 09:59 AM
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Originally Posted by jumpin' joe View Post
I've written something similar to this before, but I wish the NCAA Selection Committee would do the right thing and take a lot of the subjectivity out of the selections. Here's my suggestion:
Keep the conference tournament champion selections (no way you can't recognize them) and then go straight down the RPI and take the rest of the teams eliminating the following:
Teams with sub .500 conference records
Teams with sub .500 overall records
Right now, Okla St., Baylor, and Minnesota would be eliminated before us. Would it be great to know where you actually stood with your NCAA chances?
The Selection Committee can still have their get-together for a few days and do all the seeding.
It is too easy to game the RPI.
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
My girlfriend and her brother went to tOSU and I still hate OSU.
Then I'm guessing you're not going to come into town early an a regular basis to speak to a group of OSU fans. I'd also guess that your hatred of OSU began before your girlfriend and her brother attened school there. At any rate, non of that matters, Joe isn't anti-UD.
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:04 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
They have UD at 44
UDPride has us at 49
CBSSports has us at 49
TeamRankings has us at 49
ESPN has us at 50.

I agree that at 44 we're inside the bubble...but he's the only one anywhere giving us any break on the RPI. What's he doing that the others aren't?
I believe that I've read that they use the old rpi system (ie no adjustment for home/away/neutral court games). Someone posted somewhere (either here or the A10 board) what their reasoning is for going back to the old system, but I believe it was part of changes they made to their formula a couple of seasons past that have showed so far to be more accurate.
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I believe that I've read that they use the old rpi system (ie no adjustment for home/away/neutral court games). Someone posted somewhere (either here or the A10 board) what their reasoning is for going back to the old system, but I believe it was part of changes they made to their formula a couple of seasons past that have showed so far to be more accurate.
The UDPride RPI has both the old and new RPI on it. The new is lower because of our home losses.
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
My girlfriend and her brother went to tOSU and I still hate OSU.
I close friend of mine went to Michigan and married a hottie from Ohio State. She's as big a Michigan fan as you'll ever find. Why? Because this guy has more money than God and he convinced her to see things his way.

My wife went to OSU and had not problem convincing me to support her Buckeyes. Why? Because she can do things for me that can't be done any other way.

If your girlfriend went to OSU and you still hate OSU, I got new for you:



Because if she really wanted you to be a Buckeye...you'd be one.

Trust me...the conversion is worth it!
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:21 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
They have UD at 44
UDPride has us at 49
CBSSports has us at 49
TeamRankings has us at 49
ESPN has us at 50.

I agree that at 44 we're inside the bubble...but he's the only one anywhere giving us any break on the RPI. What's he doing that the others aren't?

Look at UDPRIDE again. The "old RPI" number is 44.

From the dance card site:
In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years.
I don't care which RPI they use. I just care that their analysis is data based, consistent, and their past performance has been very solid.
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
twice as many top 50 games played and three times as many top 50 wins.

8-5 Road neutral Vs 5-8

as you point out they have one more top 100 Win than us.
How does that top 50 record look now?

Dayton: 3-5

Team down South - 3-4

So much for any advantage there..
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
It is too easy to game the RPI.
Then change the current RPI and keep adjusting it accordingly. I just think an agreed upon statistical method is the way to go. What we have now is a joke. The Selection Committee has bias, backroom dealings, politics, blackballing, buddy system, etc. written all over it.
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:41 AM
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Originally Posted by jumpin' joe View Post
Then change the current RPI and keep adjusting it accordingly. I just think an agreed upon statistical method is the way to go. What we have now is a joke. The Selection Committee has bias, backroom dealings, politics, blackballing, buddy system, etc. written all over it.
Whatever the formula, people will find a way to game it. I could go for a formula to a point and after that to another point. Then put all these bubble teams in a hat and draw names. There are probably 10 teams with legitimate arguments for 5 spots.
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Then I'm guessing you're not going to come into town early an a regular basis to speak to a group of OSU fans. I'd also guess that your hatred of OSU began before your girlfriend and her brother attened school there. At any rate, non of that matters, Joe isn't anti-UD.
I agree with Medford. I don't think that Joe is anti-UD. I just don't think he is as good as others. BTW - his current bracket is before Saturday's win (2/27/2014).

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
Lunardi is #35
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