RPI...Bracketology Threads??

[ud2]

I sent a message to the Dance Card asking them when they are going to start this year, they never responded.

[ud2]

Still hanging in there as an 8 seed even after the VCU loss...almost all of the brackets that were updated today have us as an 8 or 9 still...still in 79 out of 79 brackets.


http://bracketmatrix.com

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by ud2 Still hanging in there as an 8 seed even after the VCU loss...almost all of the brackets that were updated today have us as an 8 or 9 still...still in 79 out of 79 brackets. http://bracketmatrix.com

So I guess that means we'll get another home game in the first four...

[UDFlyer23]

Dropped just one spot in Lunardi's latest update. 9 seed in Tulsa

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

Palm also has us as a 9 seed in his bracket as well.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Say what you want about other teams but overall I think that's a fair place for us to be at. A lot of work left to do to stay in the field but not on the verge of dropping out entirely.

Dance Card and ESPN's Bubble Watch should both be starting up later this week so it will be interesting to see where we fall once those come out (assuming another road win tomorrow night).

[UD90]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Makes me feel better. Dance Card had us out the year we were the last team selected despite ESPN having us as a 9 seed that year. Dance Card missed us by two spots that year.

Pomeroy predicts a 23-7 / 14-4 finish favored in every game except @URI (69-67)

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[CoffeeCan]

Originally Posted by UD90 http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm Makes me feel better. Dance Card had us out the year we were the last team selected despite ESPN having us as a 9 seed that year. Dance Card missed us by two spots that year. Pomeroy predicts a 23-7 / 14-4 finish favored in every game except @URI (69-67)

It is how we play for sure, but also who we are going against for seeding. Lots of room between us and the line. We can lose two more games in the A10 (maybe three) and win one in the A10 tourney as a miniumum and still get in as a 10 or 11. The odds of us completely falling apart and every other team that is trailing us to play very well are pretty high I would think...

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by CoffeeCan It is how we play for sure, but also who we are going against for seeding. Lots of room between us and the line. We can lose two more games in the A10 (maybe three) and win one in the A10 tourney as a miniumum and still get in as a 10 or 11. The odds of us completely falling apart and every other team that is trailing us to play very well are pretty high I would think...

Do you recall last year?...

[ruechalgrin]

9 seed is fair right now somewhere between 33-36. Usually top 44 or so make it so we have some margin of error. 14-4 and 1 win in A-10 and Dayton is very likely in.

[UD90]

Really not supposed to post this, but since this is only an unformatted part of it and it changes daily - > I figure I can get away with it once with a plug.

www.kenpom.com 19.95 per year - worth it.

Tue Jan 31 217 Fordham W, 68-58 66 82% Away ×
Sat Feb 4 219 Duquesne W, 80-61 71 96% Home ×
Tue Feb 7 130 Saint Joseph's W, 73-60 69 88% Home ×
Fri Feb 10 48 Rhode Island L, 69-67 67 43% Away ×
Tue Feb 14 304 Saint Louis W, 69-54 65 92% Away ×
Sat Feb 18 97 St. Bonaventure W, 77-67 69 82% Home ×
Tue Feb 21 138 George Mason W, 77-64 69 89% Home ×
Fri Feb 24 80 Davidson W, 70-69 69 56% Away ×
Wed Mar 1 45 VCU W, 71-66 69 67% Home ×
Sat Mar 4 153 George Washington W, 70-64 66 72% Away ×
Projected record: 23-7 14-4
Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning
each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.
Home games played at University of Dayton Arena (13,455, 44th largest in D-I)

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

	Fordham FORDHAM Fordham University is an independent Jesuit university established in 1841 as St. John's College on old Rose Hill Manor in the village of Fordham, then part of Westchester County in the Bronx, NY. The name Fordham is derived from the Anglo-Saxon words "ford" and "ham," meaning a wading place or ford by a settlement. Rose Hill is the name given to the site in 1787 by Robert Watts, a wealthy New York merchant, in honor of his family's ancestral home of the same name in Scotland. The College was originally staffed by diocesan clergy. The name was officially changed to Fordham University in 1907. Fordham's 10 schools enroll 14,448 students. There are 7,652 undergraduates, of whom 3,842 live in University-managed housing either on-campus or in the local community. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams. Athletic claim to fame is consistent mediocrity in nearly all sports and few A10 title winning programs.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	George Washington GEORGE WASHINGTON Students choose from two distinct GW campuses — Foggy Bottom and Mount Vernon. Both are located in historic and prestigious Northwest Washington, DC residential neighborhoods. With 9,700 undergraduate students, GW was founded almost 200 years ago and is named after the first President of the United States. GW stands as one of the nation's premier academic institutions with dozens of famous political, social, science, liberal arts, medical and professional graduates to its credit. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Colonials.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[CoffeeCan]

Originally Posted by UD90 Really not supposed to post this, but since this is only an unformatted part of it and it changes daily - > I figure I can get away with it once with a plug. www.kenpom.com 19.95 per year - worth it. Tue Jan 31 217 Fordham W, 68-58 66 82% Away × Sat Feb 4 219 Duquesne W, 80-61 71 96% Home × Tue Feb 7 130 Saint Joseph's W, 73-60 69 88% Home × Fri Feb 10 48 Rhode Island L, 69-67 67 43% Away × Tue Feb 14 304 Saint Louis W, 69-54 65 92% Away × Sat Feb 18 97 St. Bonaventure W, 77-67 69 82% Home × Tue Feb 21 138 George Mason W, 77-64 69 89% Home × Fri Feb 24 80 Davidson W, 70-69 69 56% Away × Wed Mar 1 45 VCU W, 71-66 69 67% Home × Sat Mar 4 153 George Washington W, 70-64 66 72% Away × Projected record: 23-7 14-4 Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions. Home games played at University of Dayton Arena (13,455, 44th largest in D-I)

Here is RealtimeRPI. With this outcome and one win in the A10, I think we would still be in based on the number of teams we are ahead of at this point.

01-31 at Fordham 8-12 (3-5) 210 77-70 W - Scouting
02-04 Duquesne 9-13 (2-7) 226 86-62 W - Scouting
02-07 St. Joseph's 10-10 (3-5) 105 80-64 W - Scouting
02-10 at Rhode Island 13-7 (5-3) 47 67-73 L - Scouting
02-14 at Saint Louis 6-15 (2-7) 245 80-69 W - Scouting
02-18 St. Bonaventure 13-7 (5-3) 101 77-64 W - Scouting
02-21 George Mason 13-7 (4-4) 126 78-64 W - Scouting
02-24 at Davidson 11-8 (4-4) 110 71-72 L - Scouting
03-01 VCU 16-5 (6-2) 32 74-65 W - Scouting
03-04 at Geo. Wash. 12-9 (4-4) 128 71-72 L - Scouting
Current Record: 14-5 (6-2)
GAMER Projected Record: 21-8 (13-5)

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

	Fordham FORDHAM Fordham University is an independent Jesuit university established in 1841 as St. John's College on old Rose Hill Manor in the village of Fordham, then part of Westchester County in the Bronx, NY. The name Fordham is derived from the Anglo-Saxon words "ford" and "ham," meaning a wading place or ford by a settlement. Rose Hill is the name given to the site in 1787 by Robert Watts, a wealthy New York merchant, in honor of his family's ancestral home of the same name in Scotland. The College was originally staffed by diocesan clergy. The name was officially changed to Fordham University in 1907. Fordham's 10 schools enroll 14,448 students. There are 7,652 undergraduates, of whom 3,842 live in University-managed housing either on-campus or in the local community. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams. Athletic claim to fame is consistent mediocrity in nearly all sports and few A10 title winning programs.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	George Washington GEORGE WASHINGTON Students choose from two distinct GW campuses — Foggy Bottom and Mount Vernon. Both are located in historic and prestigious Northwest Washington, DC residential neighborhoods. With 9,700 undergraduate students, GW was founded almost 200 years ago and is named after the first President of the United States. GW stands as one of the nation's premier academic institutions with dozens of famous political, social, science, liberal arts, medical and professional graduates to its credit. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Colonials.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by UD90 http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm Makes me feel better. Dance Card had us out the year we were the last team selected despite ESPN having us as a 9 seed that year. Dance Card missed us by two spots that year.

URI with a lot of work to do...last team in is #48, URI is #59...looking like only Dayton and VCU are in from the A10.


Other teams of note:

NCSU #63
Georgia Tech #39
Ohio State #69
Big East with 8 teams: Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Xavier, Marquette, Georgetown, Providence, and Seton Hall...I highly doubt they get all 8 in.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[Dillomernda]

Originally Posted by UD90 http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm Makes me feel better. Dance Card had us out the year we were the last team selected despite ESPN having us as a 9 seed that year. Dance Card missed us by two spots that year. Pomeroy predicts a 23-7 / 14-4 finish favored in every game except @URI (69-67)

Someone please correct me if I am wrong but if I recall correctly, the Dance Card did not do so well collectively as a whole in predicting teams getting into the tournament.

[BRob2Perryman3]

Originally Posted by Dillomernda Someone please correct me if I am wrong but if I recall correctly, the Dance Card did not do so well collectively as a whole in predicting teams getting into the tournament.

As a whole i think the Dance Card is the far superior prognosticator of March

[ud2]

Originally Posted by Dillomernda Someone please correct me if I am wrong but if I recall correctly, the Dance Card did not do so well collectively as a whole in predicting teams getting into the tournament.

BRob2Perryman3 is right, DC has been very accurate for about the last 23 years now, looks like 1994 was their first year...they had UD out in 2015, when UD was the last team in, when everybody else had UD in the 8-9 range...unannounced changing criteria used by the selection committee every year can result in a very small number of misses by DC though.

Seems that DC is the most accurate prognosticator around.

Track record of accuracy:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/perform.htm

[UDFlyer23]

Sports Illustrated began their Bubble Watch:

http://www.si.com/college-basketball...ast-sec-pac-12

"As for Dayton, it’s time to scrutinize its résumé a little further. The Flyers have been safely in our field of 68 every week, and checked in as a No. 7 seed this week. Their best win of the season, however, is over bubble-riding Rhode Island. They have one win against a team in our field of 68, and that came against Southern Conference powerhouse East Tennessee State. No offense to the Buccaneers, but a win over them isn’t exactly an NCAA tournament imprimatur. Dayton is still in strong position for an at-large bid, but that could change with a couple of bad losses. Their next three games are against Fordham, Duquesne and Saint Joseph’s. For the sake of the Flyers at-large candidacy, those all need to be comfortable victories."

Nothing we don't already know. Can't afford any losses to the landmines.

[UDFlyer23]

Vanderbilt is now 47 in the RPI, giving us our second top-50 win along with RI at 43. Things are going to change a lot over the next few weeks, but it's important that these boarder top 50 teams keep winning obviously. If things fall the right way and we win at RI and at home against VCU.. we could end up with 3-4 top 50 wins before Pittsburgh.

[hessbz12]

New bracketology is up...

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

8 seed playing Minnesota in Buffalo

[CoffeeCan]

Bracketology - has us closer to a 7 than a 9.
At Large teams that we are ahead of: Mich St, Iowa St, VCU, Indiana, Minnesota, Arkansas, Clemson, Marquette, Michigan, OK State, Georgia Tech, TCU, Miami, Kansas St,

Dance Card - 100% in
At Large teams that we are ahead of: SMU, Minnesota, Tennessee, Va Tech, Clemson, Marquette, VCU, Mich St, Georgia Tech, OK State, Georgetown, Cal, Providence, Wake Forest, Seton Hall

Here is how we DO NOT get in:
1. Bad losses (St Louis, Duquesne)
2. Lose @Davidson, then lose to VCU at home. Then lose all confidence and lose @ GW. We would not have a bye in the A10 tourney and would have to go to the finals.

Here is how we DO get in:
1. Win all home games, including VCU
2. Three road losses max
3. Dont lose the first game in the A10 tourney
4. Have Northwestern and St Marys play well down the stretch
5. Vandy and URI remain top 50 wins. If we beat VCU and Alabama gets hot that is 4 top 50 wins.

JC will be a key. If he can get healthy it makes us deeper and fills a big void.

Reason I mentioned all of the teams that trail us is that barring a complete meltdown, some of those teams will fall apart. No way all of them play well down the stretch, especially since many are in the same conference.

Time to start rooting for the safe Power Conference teams to run the table (Maryland, Nova, Butler, UNC, Kansas, Louisville, Virginia, etc)

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[San Diego Flyer]

Originally Posted by CoffeeCan Here is how we DO get in: 1. Win all home games, including VCU 2. Three road losses max 3. Dont lose the first game in the A10 tourney 4. Have Northwestern and St Marys play well down the stretch 5. Vandy and URI remain top 50 wins. If we beat VCU and Alabama gets hot that is 4 top 50 wins.

The above has been our best shot since we lost Josh. Very tall order when we know other opponents have Dayton in their crosshairs. The URI/SLU road combo is a tough one. SLU is a trap game because we humiliated them and we would be coming off an emotional win at URI. SLU is still not good, but they have been better as of late.

We need Josh against Hassan Martin and Iverson for sure.

Must hold serve at home.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[ruechalgrin]

Should move to 28-32 kenpom with this win. I do not believe any top 30 kenpom team has been left out of NCAA Tourney the last 5 years (Commiteee started materially using kenpom and other analytic tools about 5 years ago).

[UD62]

See Palm has us an eight and VCU a nine. Syracuse last in and playing here. Looks like "eye test" and "gathering steam" are alive and well.

[ruechalgrin]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.9684709342ea

Patrick Stevens has had a very good 2-3 year run with his brackets. Talks about A-10 a lot here. Also notes committee moved recently (which I agree) to quantity of top 50 wins no matter how many chances a team gets.

[CoffeeCan]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.9684709342ea Patrick Stevens has had a very good 2-3 year run with his brackets. Talks about A-10 a lot here. Also notes committee moved recently (which I agree) to quantity of top 50 wins no matter how many chances a team gets.

Agreed. This is also good, Shelby Mast:

http://www.bracketwag.com/

[CE80]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.9684709342ea Patrick Stevens has had a very good 2-3 year run with his brackets. Talks about A-10 a lot here. Also notes committee moved recently (which I agree) to quantity of top 50 wins no matter how many chances a team gets.

Do you agree that the committee is now looking more at total top 50 wins (regardless of number of chances) or that that is a good measuring stick?

[sheg]

Knock on wood...

Last year this time we were discussing 4 and 5 seeds. The wheels fell off and they lost 3 of 6.

This year it looks like they're getting stronger down the stretch. Knock on wood...

[Dillomernda]

Originally Posted by CE80 Do you agree that the committee is now looking more at total top 50 wins (regardless of number of chances) or that that is a good measuring stick?

I have never heard of this. When did this change?

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by CE80 Do you agree that the committee is now looking more at total top 50 wins (regardless of number of chances) or that that is a good measuring stick?

CE80, I think it is a terrible measuring stick that massively favors P5 teams as they have a ton of chances to win top 50 games at home (as easy to beat 25 at home as it is 50 neutral as it is 75 away). But it is clearly what the committee has been emphasizing more and more the last 3 years.
Posted via Mobile Device

[CE80]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin CE80, I think it is a terrible measuring stick that massively favors P5 teams as they have a ton of chances to win top 50 games at home (as easy to beat 25 at home as it is 50 neutral as it is 75 away). But it is clearly what the committee has been emphasizing more and more the last 3 years. Posted via Mobile Device

We are on the same page.

I thought one of the things I read in the discussion about the committee using new/different analytics to help pick the tourney teams was them looking at valuing road wins more. This would at least help the non-P5 because they play more road games in the OOC.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by Dillomernda I have never heard of this. When did this change?

ruechalgrin knows more than I but I think it has been increasing over the last 3 years or so. It is not printed anywhere but the results are obvious. It is s not so subtle (to the knowledgeable fan ) of picking more P5 teams.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by CE80 ruechalgrin knows more than I but I think it has been increasing over the last 3 years or so. It is not printed anywhere but the results are obvious. It is s not so subtle (to the knowledgeable fan ) of picking more P5 teams.

I generally agree with you about the p5 getting the preferential treatment, but I looked at about the last 10 years, and there seems to be a justifiable case for every non-p5 snub, except for maybe Colorado State in 2015.

That is not to say that there have not been p5 teams that should not have received a bid.

Justifications: poor record vs. the rpi top 50, too many losses vs. teams with a rpi over 100, double digit losses, and a weak sos(probably a sos of 90+)

[hessbz12]

Dropped to a 9 seed in Lunardi's Bracketology. Interesting.

[CoffeeCan]

Number 9! (Against the spread)...

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/oddss...aab-ats-top-25

[CE80]

Originally Posted by hessbz12 Dropped to a 9 seed in Lunardi's Bracketology. Interesting.

It is going to be hard to get pass an 8 unless we run the table. Destined for 8,9 or 10 seed. Start looking at the potential 1 and 2 seeds for possible locations given that those seeds will get the location closest to them. To many possible 7, 8 and 9 seeds to look at those match ups.

[ud2]

Dance Card updated...

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

VCU and UD looking good. URI only 2 spots out.

Seems like Marquette fell like a rock, they are now out, Georgetown near the cut line, Seton Hall fell out, other 4 from BE: Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Xavier...GT also with a bad week, they also fell a bunch.

NCSU way out at #87.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[Medford]

FWIW, dance card updated their page this afternoon, UD drops from 30 (IIRC) down to 31 in the last week. VCU jumps ahead of them to 30, don't know about the rest of the shuffling. So around an 8 seed if they are correct, around an 8 seed on kenpom, around an 8 seed on palm and lunardi, HD hoops has them as a 10 right now in their "what would the committee do if today was selection sunday" bracket, but in their personal here is how we would do the bracket, weekly mock bracket thing that they do, they had UD as an 8 last thursday (if you've never watched and are a bracket nerd, it can be entertaining background conversation). however if you pay attention, you can tell the jumble from 7-10 is pretty tight at this point in their eyes (probably that way every season at this point) so things will sort themselves out.

[Medford]

Originally Posted by CE80 It is going to be hard to get pass an 8 unless we run the table. Destined for 8,9 or 10 seed. Start looking at the potential 1 and 2 seeds for possible locations given that those seeds will get the location closest to them. To many possible 7, 8 and 9 seeds to look at those match ups.

I think I think, if UD runs the table and lets assume that includes 1 win in Pittsburgh over either VCU or Rhody, UD could move up to a 6 seed, if, IF Cunningham returns and looks healthy and productive and if, IF the committee actually gives UD the benefit of the doubt on injuries that it seems like P5 teams and Wichita St got last year. consider the 2 close losses (even though they were down a ton early) to St Mary's and Nebraska came w/o cunningham and pollard, when they start scrubbing teams against one another, that should be a slight enhancement to UD's "negative" or however you want to phrase it.

If UD is in the 8/9 game, who wouldn't take playing in Buffalo right now? Indy and Milwaukee also seem favorable for a larger UD contigent. Orlando vs Florida St might not be so bad either. Despite being in their home state, I've never had the impression that Florida State's fan base in basketball is all that passionate, they'll focusing in on spring practice for football.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[shapanud]

As of today, here are UD's rankings in the 4 computer rankings the NCAA invited to their meeting a few weeks ago plus the RPI:

Sagarin: 34
KenPom: 31
KPI: 32
BPI: 34
RPI: 32

It's an incredibly small variance across all 5 rankings and based on this data it makes sense UD is projected as a 8-9 seed right now.

[CT Flyer]

I would rather be a 10 than an 8 or 9. 6 or 7 would be even better!

[UDDoug]

Just curious, but what's the difference between 7 and 10 other than the color of uniform you wear ?

[CE80]

Originally Posted by UDDoug Just curious, but what's the difference between 7 and 10 other than the color of uniform you wear ?

I don't even need to consult Figgie on this one - the answer is 3.

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by UDDoug Just curious, but what's the difference between 7 and 10 other than the color of uniform you wear ?

Nothing technically but it probably means that we played very well down the stretch.

[CoffeeCan]

CBS Bubble Watch mentions us and VCU as "in for now"
Seems like they are starting the bubble at the 8 seed lines.

"Dayton has the distinction of being the best win for three teams currently in the bracket, so it is not just Dayton counting on Dayton, it is also St. Mary's, Northwestern and VCU. The Flyers are tied with the Rams atop the A-10, which is down this year. Dayton has yet to be a team that is likely to make the tournament, and is unlikely to even get that chance. That means that the Flyers cannot afford a big mistake."

This, of course, is the case EVERY YEAR for EVERY TEAM that is not in a Power 5 conference.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...y/bubble-watch

[ud2]

A10 might get 2 to 4 bids if a dark horse wins the conference tournament, BE might get 4 or 5...not a big difference between the number of bids.

And I never realized how much the Dance Card fluctuates from week to week...several teams moved about 10 spots up or down: Ohio State, Georgia Tech, URI, Marquette, etc.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by ud2 A10 might get 2 to 4 bids if a dark horse wins the conference tournament, BE might get 4 or 5...not a big difference between the number of bids. And I never realized how much the Dance Card fluctuates from week to week...several teams moved about 10 spots up or down: Ohio State, Georgia Tech, URI, Marquette, etc.

I hate to say it but I would say more like 1-3 bids for the A10 this year with 2 being the most likely. I don't see any chance of the A10 getting 4.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by CT Flyer I don't see any chance of the A10 getting 4.

I do...URI is still alive...and these conference tournaments can sometimes be a free-for-all.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[Bill202]

Originally Posted by CT Flyer I hate to say it but I would say more like 1-3 bids for the A10 this year with 2 being the most likely. I don't see any chance of the A10 getting 4.

Originally Posted by ud2 I do...URI is still alive...and these conference tournaments can sometimes be a free-for-all.

One in a million. So there's still a chance! -Lloyd Christmas

[CE80]

Originally Posted by ud2 I do...URI is still alive...and these conference tournaments can sometimes be a free-for-all.

Forgetting about what would have to be a perfect storm for URI, VCU and UD to receive at large bids, I don't see any way, any of the teams not URI, VCU and UD win 4 (or 5) games in Pittsburgh.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[UDFlyer23]

Originally Posted by CT Flyer I would rather be a 10 than an 8 or 9. 6 or 7 would be even better!

The 8 or 9 seed might not be as bad this year. Outside of Kansas, being matched up with a Gonzaga or Villanova would be better than having to play potential 2 seeds like UNC, Kentucky, or Oregon IMO.

[CoffeeCan]

The more the P5 conferences play each other deep into conference play and into their tournaments, the less spots will open up for conferences like the A10. Their SOS, RPI, top 50 wins, etc all will go up just by them playing each other. And we have seen that a team that goes 4-5 vs top 50 is often given the nod to a team that goes 2-1 vs top 50. It is almost like the losses vs top 50 teams do not matter, as long as you have at least 4 wins to balance that out. The committee can point to those wins as justification.

You saw this play out yesterday with Dayton falling to 9 and Marquette rising to 8 on Lunardi's Bracketology.

Look at Marquette's remaining schedule. All of their games, less St Johns, are against good competition.
http://insider.espn.com/mens-college...i/_/teamId/269

Now look at our remaining schedule. We only have two chances to add to our resume, and six chances to drop.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas.../_/teamId/2168

VCU, URI, and Richmond all have the same challenge.

So no, we are not getting 4 teams in.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[CE80]

The reality is that this year's A10 looks very mid major. The only OOC win of significance is URI over Cincy. The top 3 teams have some bad losses.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[Medford]

using Sags & RPI forecast, if UD, URI & VCU all win the game they are suppose to, and no more (ie, UD losses @ URI, VCU losses @ RI & UD) all three will end up in the 20-25 range of the rpi. UD & RI will tie for first at 13-3 (I think URI gets the tie breaker assuming VCU finishes 3rd) and VCU is at 14-4. At that point, no one else is close to getting an at large, so it would require a couple of "upsets" in Pittsburgh for a 4th team to emerge. If RI (who would also have the best win among those 3 teams, vs Cincy at this poing) is the 1 seed, then perhaps all it takes is the 4th seed knocking them off then winning on sunday, 3 victories, 3 days, and the 4th seed knocking off URI and VCU/UD likely wouldn't be gauged as a terrible loss, likely would be an 80ish or better rpi team when all is said and done.

All that said, I think this conference is a lot closer to 1 bid than it is to 4, 2 seems most probable. Frankly I don't care much about RI or how many bids the A10 gets as a whole, I'd like to see UD win at RI on friday and put themselves into position to grab the best seed they can get and hopefully win the conference outright.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by CE80 Forgetting about what would have to be a perfect storm for URI, VCU and UD to receive at large bids, I don't see any way, any of the teams not URI, VCU and UD win 4 (or 5) games in Pittsburgh.

Your point has been made by others before, but I am just not seeing the perfect storm thing...unless I am missing something, UD, VCU, and URI all making it in is a reasonable conclusion.

The A10 tourney has had unlikely winners through the years, upsets do happen sometimes, it is not highly unusual for a non-top 3 team to win the A10T, it has happened the last 2 years. Here are the 3 most recent examples of a non-top 3 team winning the tournament,(I only included years where a team was clearly in 4th place and not tied for 3rd, but became the 4th seed due to a tiebreaker), I am sure there are other examples of this:

2016-SJU, 4 seed

2015-VCU, 5 seed

2006-Xavier, 10 seed

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

[ud2]

Originally Posted by Medford using Sags & RPI forecast, if UD, URI & VCU all win the game they are suppose to, and no more (ie, UD losses @ URI, VCU losses @ RI & UD) all three will end up in the 20-25 range of the rpi. UD & RI will tie for first at 13-3 (I think URI gets the tie breaker assuming VCU finishes 3rd) and VCU is at 14-4. At that point, no one else is close to getting an at large, so it would require a couple of "upsets" in Pittsburgh for a 4th team to emerge. If RI (who would also have the best win among those 3 teams, vs Cincy at this poing) is the 1 seed, then perhaps all it takes is the 4th seed knocking them off then winning on sunday, 3 victories, 3 days, and the 4th seed knocking off URI and VCU/UD likely wouldn't be gauged as a terrible loss, likely would be an 80ish or better rpi team when all is said and done.

Agree, that is what I am saying, URI, UD, and VCU all getting in as at large teams is realistic for now, and upsets in the A10T are realistic.

Any of those 3 could stumble down the stretch and not make it though.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by CoffeeCan And we have seen that a team that goes 4-5 vs top 50 is often given the nod to a team that goes 2-1 vs top 50. It is almost like the losses vs top 50 teams do not matter, as long as you have at least 4 wins to balance that out. The committee can point to those wins as justification.

No, I have not seen this, do you have any examples? 2-1 vs. the top 50 is not a problem so long as the rest of the resume does not have any big holes.

[CoffeeCan]

Originally Posted by ud2 No, I have not seen this, do you have any examples? 2-1 vs. the top 50 is not a problem so long as the rest of the resume does not have any big holes.

No, I dont have a filing cabinet filled with tournament resumes from 2016. But Syracuse comes to mind. Just look at the last several years of the last four at large teams to get in and I think you will find this to be the case. It is almost always teams from P5 conferences that have one thing in common - top 50 wins from conference play that overshadow bad losses and an RPI SOS boost that playing in that conference provides.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by ud2 Agree, that is what I am saying, URI, UD, and VCU all getting in as at large teams is realistic for now, and upsets in the A10T are realistic. Any of those 3 could stumble down the stretch and not make it though.

Any of those teams could lose in the A10 tourney but I don't see all 3 losing early and I don't think any of the remaining teams could win all the games needed to be the tourney champion.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[UDFlyer23]

ESPN started their Bubble Watch:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Categorized as "Work Left To Do"

Dayton [17-5 (8-2), RPI: 33, SOS: 69] None of the Flyers' individual wins will get the blood boiling; the best is probably a home victory over Rhode Island, followed by a road win over Alabama, followed (we guess?) by a home win over Vanderbilt. It's in the aggregate that Dayton's wins impress: Eight of its 16 have come against top 100 teams. Maybe nine, if Richmond's RPI shrinks in the coming weeks, or 10, if the Flyers manage to beat Rhode Island for a second time Friday, this time on the road. It's an important reminder in the bubble discussion, which is often overly obsessed (us included) by the "But who did they beat?!" question. At a certain point, quantity matters, too.

[Medford]

so if my math on the ESPN bubble watch is correct, they list 62 teams total, representing 16 conference, which means that among those 62, there are 46 teams fighting for an at large bid. Which means, UD has to be "better than 10 of these schools, with no "bid stealers" taking a bid in one of these conferences that isn't currently listed.

Starting w/ the "others" section, there are 9 teams listed, 7 conferences. If I assume both St Mary's & Gonzaga make the dance, either WSU or Illinois St makes the dance, and 1 bid stealer, that means all 9 teams get in, 2 at large among the group the rest their their auto bid.

In the AAC, I think both UC and SMU make it, so hopefully no bid stealers.

In the ACC, its almost impossible for there to be a bid stealer, but its almost impossible to envision all 13 teams listed making the dance. I think you can safely trim 3-4 schools off that list; don't know who, but somebody has to lose.

In the B12, there are 8 teams listed (out of 10) again, somebody has to lose, I think you can safely trim another 2.

In the Big East, there are 7 listed, I think you can trim 2
In the BIG, there are 8 teams listed, again trim 2
In the MW, trim no one, but Nevada isn't getting an at large bid.
In the P12, there are 6 listed, trim 1
In the SEC, there are 5 listed, trim no one (but it seems the most likely of the major conferences to see a bid stealer win their conference tournament at this point.

so, If I give all of the "other's" a bid, but only 2 thru the at large process, I just trimed 10 kind of random teams from the list, which still leaves 2 at large spots for the A10.

In short, if URI, VCU & UD all split vs each other, and beat everyone else, the A10 looks pretty solid for 3 bids, more solid than I would have guessed.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[priceg75]

Originally Posted by Medford In short, if URI, VCU & UD all split vs each other, and beat everyone else, the A10 looks pretty solid for 3 bids, more solid than I would have guessed.

But that's really the rub isn't it? How many times have we felt like a lock over the past few seasons, only to have the team lose at LaSalle or St. Joe's or something.

I fully expect us to beat URI on the road and VCU at home, but we'll have some stupid loss at SLU or Davidson or something and be right there on the bubble.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[foolishpride]

Originally Posted by Medford so if my math on the ESPN bubble watch is correct, they list 62 teams total, representing 16 conference, which means that among those 62, there are 46 teams fighting for an at large bid. Which means, UD has to be "better than 10 of these schools, with no "bid stealers" taking a bid in one of these conferences that isn't currently listed.

I think there are only 36 at large bids. There are 32 automatic bids from Conference Tourney winners and/or regular season champs.

[Medford]

there are 36 at large bids, hence the 46 fighting for an at large and UD needing to be "better" than 10 of them (36) to get an at large. I don't recall how many bid stealers there were last year, the year prior there were 0.

[IAFlyer]

Originally Posted by ud2 No, I have not seen this, do you have any examples? 2-1 vs. the top 50 is not a problem so long as the rest of the resume does not have any big holes.

Go back a few years to Texas getting an at-large bid. Their top 50 record was 3-13. The committee "rewarded" them for having 3 top-50 wins.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by priceg75 But that's really the rub isn't it? How many times have we felt like a lock over the past few seasons, only to have the team lose at LaSalle or St. Joe's or something. I fully expect us to beat URI on the road and VCU at home, but we'll have some stupid loss at SLU or Davidson or something and be right there on the bubble.

We already had 1 - UMass on the road.

	Massachusetts MASSACHUSETTS UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, sits on nearly 1,450-acres in the scenic Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts, 90 miles from Boston and 175 miles from New York City. The campus provides a rich cultural environment in a rural setting close to major urban centers. UMass enrolls over 20,000 undergraduates and 5,000 post-grad students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Minutemen. Women's teams known as the Minutewomen. Sports achievements include NCAA Final Four appearances in men's basketball and women's soccer.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

[priceg75]

Even with that, people are saying "they're in if they take care of business". Yeah, but we still have Davidson, SLU, and GW on the road. We never win at GW and only played at Davidson once so far, where they shot 68/75 on 3's in that game they beat us 2 years ago.

I may be exaggerating. Slightly.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by CoffeeCan No, I dont have a filing cabinet filled with tournament resumes from 2016. But Syracuse comes to mind. Just look at the last several years of the last four at large teams to get in and I think you will find this to be the case. It is almost always teams from P5 conferences that have one thing in common - top 50 wins from conference play that overshadow bad losses and an RPI SOS boost that playing in that conference provides.

I'm not defending poor p5 records vs. the top 50, I'm objecting to a non-p5 having a 2-1 record vs. the top 50 being called a problem...2-1 is acceptable, 2-1 is not a problem, the committee will not hold 2-1 against a non-p5.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by IAFlyer Go back a few years to Texas getting an at-large bid. Their top 50 record was 3-13. The committee "rewarded" them for having 3 top-50 wins.

Again, not defending 3-13, but am defending 2-1...

[ud2]

Originally Posted by CE80 Any of those teams could lose in the A10 tourney but I don't see all 3 losing early and I don't think any of the remaining teams could win all the games needed to be the tourney champion.

Agree, I will concede here.

A dark horse winning get the A10T this year is probably a big stretch. I did not realize how much separation there is between the top 3 and the rest of the league. The top 3 are in the high 20's or 30's, next is SBU and LaSalle in the 90's.

Looking back over the last several years of the A10T, the top 3 teams in the standings usually win the whole thing. Even in the last 2 years, when the top 3 did not win the A10T, SJU and VCU had just 5 and 6 league losses.

	St Bonaventure SAINT BONAVENTURE Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

[Medford]

interesting night for both the middle of the bracket, as well as the bubble. I think friday's game at Rhody will go a long way in determining how I personally view the rest of the season across the landscape of college hoops. If UD wins, then I'm squarely in the camp of thinking they have a good shot of finishing out the season with just 1 or less losses and can think about fighting for a 6 seed. If they lose, then I'm squarely in the camp of thinking lets just hope they get into the tournament and not worry about the seed. Not that I think a loss at Rhody will be viewed negatively, it just limits the amount of further upside they have from their seemingly 8-9 seed range they are in now and a loss to VCU combined w/ dropping another game may put them at the back of the bubble and in danger zone.

anyhoo, Notre Dame over Wake was probably bad for UD's odds of getting a 6 seed, but good for the back end of the bubble as ND is more comfortably "in" at this point than wake.

Michigan over MSU is the opposite, good for UD's odds of getting a 6, but puts Michigan closer to being in than they were yesterday.

Bama over SC, both good for UD directly, and also good for the back of the 6 seed hopes, Bama inches closer, but still needs to string a bunch of wins to get in the conversation.

On the flip side, N'western losing to Illinois hurts UD directly, but increases space in the middle of the bracket.

Nova pushes G'town further off the bubble, as did Butler's win at Marquette, pushing Marquette further off the bubble.

Sryacuse is making a serious run at a bid, their win at Clemson helps them, but also pushes Clemson back towards falling off the bubble.

somebody had to win b/w TCU & Tech, TCU was closer to being in than Tech and even further more today, I think you can close the door on Tech baring a major run (and they do get ample opportunities for marquee wins down the stretch, I just don't envision enough of them happening to make a difference.

Iowa St was sitting in a good spot coming off a win in Lawerence, then took a step back by losing at Texas. They'll need to navigate a couple of potholes in their remaining B12 schedule and pull off an unexpected win along the way to feel safe. Texas' win was good for the middle part of the bracket.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[CE80]

For those that look only at RPI - look at Wake Forest. 14-10 overall 5-7 in ACC. They are #30 in RPI. 0-6 against top 25, 1-8 against top 50. DanceCard (thru last weekends games) has them at 38, 75% chance.

Does Wake have an NCAA tourney, worthy resume?

[ud2]

Originally Posted by CE80 For those that look only at RPI - look at Wake Forest. 14-10 overall 5-7 in ACC. They are #30 in RPI. 0-6 against top 25, 1-8 against top 50. DanceCard (thru last weekends games) has them at 38, 75% chance. Does Wake have an NCAA tourney, worthy resume?

Fair point...let's see what happens over the coming weeks...DC is very accurate...I looked at DC, there were a few mid-major teams that have no chance at an at large bid that were above the cut line...maybe DC gets more accurate the closer we get to Selection Sunday.

[LIBob]

How does MSU who projects to have 14 losses going into the Big 10 Tournament get any consideration towards a 6 seed?

[CE80]

Originally Posted by LIBob How does MSU who projects to have 14 losses going into the Big 10 Tournament get any consideration towards a 6 seed?

There big loss the other night to Michigan is going to knock them down but you watch, somehow they will end up beating MD and WI before the season (including the Big 10 tourney). Izzo always seems to find a way.

[Medford]

In last night's bubble games:

Baylor won at Okie St, dropping Okie st to 4-7 in conference play. If things go according to the Sages, they'll end conference play 8-10. I've long been a believer that if you can't go .500 in conference play, you shouldn't be eligible for an at large bid, I don't care how strong your conference is, however, at 8-10, in the B12 w/ that not being a rule, my guess is they slide in. But what if they drop an addtional game, perhaps the game @ Kst that they are less than a point favorite? Would the committee put them in at 7-11 baring a deep run in the B12 championship?

Miami beat Vtech at home, both are very bubbly, somebody had to win. Impossible to know who the bubble dreamers would have preferred to win at this point, both have tough schedules moving forward.

Cal won at Arizona St, which was expected, however they've got a home game w/ Oregon sandwhiched b/w 4 road games in their final 6. Could be staring at a 2-4 or 1-5 finish, but huge opportunity for some big wins down the stretch.

Seton Hall hung on to beat providence, if things go according to sag they'll end up 8-10 in the Big east, see OSU above.

Speaking of OSU, Ohio St beat Rutgers at home, yawn.

Tennesee beat Ole Miss at home, yawn again.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by Medford Speaking of OSU, Ohio St beat Rutgers at home, yawn.

...and the game was close to the end.

[SLUFLYER]

Originally Posted by CE80 ...and the game was close to the end.

Yeah, Rutgers tied it with maybe 90 seconds left or so, then proceeded to foul a 3-point shooter, who made the shot and the free throw....down 4 just like that. Same guy also fouled the same shooter on a three pointer just minutes earlier. Oh, the beauty of Rutgers basketball.

[San Diego Flyer]

RPI aside, our SOS is dropping painfully fast. Like a tightrope walker without a net.

Not much we can do except keep winning and hope for the best.

[hessbz12]

Up to an 8 seed. Of course none of this matters until we see what happens tonight.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

[Radar]

Originally Posted by LIBob How does MSU who projects to have 14 losses going into the Big 10 Tournament get any consideration towards a 6 seed?

Because certain schools get a pass for going through injury-riddled stretches...others don't. Vitale spent the ENTIRE Purdue vs IU game last night singing Creane's praises and how he's endured so many injuries. No excuses...ask Archie.

[m21eagle45]

Originally Posted by hessbz12 Up to an 8 seed. Of course none of this matters until we see what happens tonight. http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

That would stink playing Wichita St. in Tulsa. I get having Kansas there, but having WSU there as well would make it 2 road games in a row.

[priceg75]

Live RPI has us up five spots to 27, URI down eight spots to 43.

In lieu of the Bible aka udpride RPI update.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[CoffeeCan]

96.7% in today, up from 90.9% yesterday. Huge.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...s/bracketology

[CoffeeCan]

Shelby Mast has us up to a 7 seed

http://www.bracketwag.com/

[Medford]

I said prior to the Rhody game, that my view on who to root for/against moving forward was largely dependent upon if UD won or lost (as if it made any sort of difference). With the #roadkill secured, my hopes now lie in UD winning out the regular season and hoping they can secure a 6 seed on Selection sunday, which in my estimation is probably about as good as they can do.

First, it will require UD to win out, maybe allow for 1 slipup along the way, and while I certainly won't discount any of the games remaining, they are all the type of games that a 6 seed "should" be winning. @ SLU, Home for Bonna and Mason, @ Davidson, home for VCU, @ GW. Sags/rpiforecast say UD will be favored in all, however, the odds are that they get tripped up once. Their odds say that it is more likely that UD drops 2 of these games down the stretch (28%) than that UD finishes out the slate unscathed (21%). Should UD finish out the regular season with any losses, they will secure an rpi somewhere around the low 20s heading to Pittsburgh, as well as the outright A10 title and #1 seed. Assuming they don't slip up Friday in Pittsburgh, I think their seed under a win-out scenario will likely be all but wrapped up saturday morning. IIRC how the process works, much of the field will be set by the time they tip off saturday afternoon/evening and there just won't be enough games left to move anybody up or down significantly no matter what happens over the last day and a half with the exception of a "bid stealer" knocking out one of the first four teams.

So w/ UD's path listed in front of us/me, who am I looking at/watching in hopes that UD can slide by them? Using bracket matrix, I'm just going to assume anybody currently listed as a 4 seed in their aggregate or higher isn't going to drop lower than UD at this point baring a major collapse. so that leaves the 5-7 seeds (UD is listed as their highest 8 seed) as well as the teams they have on the 8-10 seed line that could potentially jump UD in the "win out" scenario due to having significantly better opportunities for top 25/50 wins down the stretch.

Butler (St Johns, Depaul, @ nova, @ X, Seton Hall) 2 opportunites for major stinkers, won't lose much ground with losses at Nova or X, seton hall is on the bubble. Major upside moving forward for them w/ the 2 roadies, but just holding serve at home, which they should likely keeps them ahead of UD.

Creighton (@ Hall, Providence, GTown, @ Nova, St Johns, @ Marquette) A tough stetch to finish out hte season, a lot of roadies that they won't get dinged too hard. What makes them intriguing is the injury to their starting PG. Lets say they drop the 3 road games, plus either the Providence or GTown game at home, I think there is a good chance they drop to a 10 seed line.

Cincy, Like UD there is very little high upside remaining and a lot of road mines waiting ahead of them. They have 1 more top 50 road win (at the moment than UD) plus the better overall win w/ their victory over X. If they drop 2 down the stretch, I think UD could pass them, or at least catch up.

Purdon't (Rutgers, MSU, @ PedoSt, @ Michigan, Indiana, @ Northwestern) Lots of upside, not a ton of terrible losses ahead of them, might take lossing all 3 roadies and one of the home games

6 seeds:

Maryland. Somehow they only have 1 top 50 win (a roady at Minny) there is the potential that in the coming weeks, they could scrub their resume vs UD's resume and determine that UD's is slightly better. However, playing in the B10 they have more opportunities down the stretch (@NWestern, @ Wisky, Minny, Iowa, @ Rutgers, MSU)

South Carolina, not a ton of top 50 wins, but a good number in the 50-75 range, including several at home. Their finish is tough, but attainable (Arkansas, @ Vandy, @ Florida, Tennessee, Miss St, @ Miss). Just win the home games and its tough to jump them I think

Xavier, similar to creighton, they are now dealing w/ a season ending injury to their PG so everything accomplished prior has lost some shine, and how they finish may carry a little more weight. They're on the road for the next 3, then back home two before a road gimmie (depaul). Should they drop the next 3, then lose one of the home games, they could drop pretty hard. Still lots of talent, and lots of opportunity for solid road wins.

Notre Dame There is actually very little left on their schedule (@ NC State, @ BC, home for GTech and BC, finish at Louisville) They don't have a ton of juice, but what they do have is better than what UD has. UD needs them to drop at least one of those land mines remaining on their schedule, plus the game at Louisville to have any hope of passing them

7 seeds

St Mary's, SMU, USC, Minnesota

St Mary's UD lost the head to head, at home none the less, but that was w/o Pollard or Cunningham. If Josh can return strong down the stretch, that might give them a chance for the committee to forgive that loss. They have a game at BYU, which is huge, the other 3 are all 150+ rpi teams, drop one of those as well as BYU and they might be looking at first 4.

SMU just picked up a huge home win vs Cincy, prior to that there wasn't much there. A solid road game @ Houston remains, otherwise is should be all wins. UD needs them to drop that game, perhaps 1 more.

USC has games @ UCLA & @ Arizona as huge opportunites, then finish up with gimmies @ ASU and home for the 2 washington schools. As long as they drop their next 2 roadies, I think UD has a good shot of passing them by down the stretch. If they win one of those 2 as well as their last 3, no shot.

Minnesota, not a ton to hang their hat on to date, save a home victory over Purdue. However, being in the B10 they'll get opportunities down the stretch for sure. (indiana, Michigan, @ Maryland, Penn St, Nebraska, @ Wisky) Not much downside as long as they beat Pedo St and Neby at home, probably need to win one more to stay even, 2 more to stay above an unbeaten Dayton team down the stretch.

at the 8 seed, behind UD are Northwestern, Iowa St and Okie St. Northwestern picked up a huge win last night, and like Iowa St & Okie St lots of opportunites ahead of them. UD mainly just needs them to not real off any huge upsets down the stretch. OSU & ISU do play each other in their 2nd to last game.

9 seeds: VCU, KState, VTech & TCU. If UD wins out, then obviously VCU isn't going to jump ahead of them, the rest are similar to above, just need them to not pull any major upsets.

Its going to be tough, I see maybe 7 teams that UD could potentially pass down the stretch, but they'll need to pass 5 of them for sure as well as hope the others in the 8-9 range stumble enough so as to not pass them by. If UD can win out, a tall task in and of itself, I'd say there is a 30% chance they nab a 6 seed. Would make selection sunday fun in a good way, rather than waiting and hoping they're in the field at all.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[Mr_Sweets]

Posted via Mobile Device

[priceg75]

We will lose a stupid road game just to make everybody sweat, but we'll make it in. Davidson and GW are not easy places to play, and VCU about lost at GW just last week. No reason we might not meet the same fate.

[CoffeeCan]

If you figure team ranking of
1-4 = 1 seed
5-8 = 2 seed (and so on)

Then we need to be "ranked" by the committee no less than 28 to be considered for a 7 seed. And we all know how the committee loves to favor the bigger conference, so we really need to be a top 25 team in four weeks.

The AP poll just came out, and we are #31 (just behind VCU)

So, it is there for us if we play well.

However, barring a horrible stretch (which I do not see happening), even we lose twice in the regular season and early in the A10 tourney, are we going to drop out of the tourney? Unlikely. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

1. We can get a 7 seed (or even 6)
2. We will get in, barring a complete meltdown
3. Even if we drop, we will be an 11 seed? We were an 11 in 2009, 2014, and 2015. Obviously, we want to avoid the play in game but after 2014 will the committee even put us there again?

[Medford]

Originally Posted by CoffeeCan If you figure team ranking of 1-4 = 1 seed 5-8 = 2 seed (and so on) Then we need to be "ranked" by the committee no less than 28 to be considered for a 7 seed. And we all know how the committee loves to favor the bigger conference, so we really need to be a top 25 team in four weeks. The AP poll just came out, and we are #31 (just behind VCU) So, it is there for us if we play well. However, barring a horrible stretch (which I do not see happening), even we lose twice in the regular season and early in the A10 tourney, are we going to drop out of the tourney? Unlikely. Not impossible, but highly unlikely. 1. We can get a 7 seed (or even 6) 2. We will get in, barring a complete meltdown 3. Even if we drop, we will be an 11 seed? We were an 11 in 2009, 2014, and 2015. Obviously, we want to avoid the play in game but after 2014 will the committee even put us there again?

That's a good way to look at it. I remember reading once upon a time that while "you" may consider the AP top 25 to be meaningless, the final AP top 25 often looks fairly similar to the top of the NCAA bracket. I don't know how much, if any has changed since I read that 5-10 years ago, but getting into the top 25 would certainly help the cause and would likely be necessary for a top 6 seed. If you go by a week-week basis, just looking at schedules, there seems to be tough, lossable games for 5 of the teams ranked b/w 19 and 25. SMU @ Houston, Creighton @ Hall and home to G'town, S Carolina vs Arkansas @ Vandy (doubly big for UD in that perspective), St mary's at BYU, Maryland @ NWestern (who is also ranked ahead of UD) and @ Wisky. Really, only #24 & 25 Butler & ND seem to have an "easy" week. I assume Wichita St has easy games this week, I know Xavier & SoCal have tough road games. If UD handles SLU and Bonna, they could be knocking on the door to the top 25 next week, maybe even in it if this week is anything like the last couple of weeks with top 25 teams dropping like flies.

Of course, Dayton only has 4 points, which could all come from 1 voter, or may be spread out to up to 4 voters. The teams behind Dayton have 2 or 1 point each, so while few of them have opportunities for big wins, there are likely several teams that could secure a huge win and immediately pick up more than 4 points in next weeks ballot.

Just keep winning.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[CoffeeCan]

Originally Posted by Medford Of course, Dayton only has 4 points, which could all come from 1 voter, or may be spread out to up to 4 voters. The teams behind Dayton have 2 or 1 point each, so while few of them have opportunities for big wins, there are likely several teams that could secure a huge win and immediately pick up more than 4 points in next weeks ballot. Just keep winning.

Three voters, one at 24 and two at 25

http://collegepolltracker.com/basketball/team/ud2/2016

And agreed, keep winning.

[jack72]

We are 30th in the Coaches Poll with 8 votes. Last week we had one vote.

Glad to see St Mary's hung in there, despite not looking that great against Zaga.

[Medford]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Another week passes, and it surprises me to see that UD dropped another 1 spot in this week's dance card. I assumed the win at Rhody would have bumped them up a few spots, though I've taken no consideration for what other teams around them have done.

anyhoo, 32 for the time being for those that follow dance card.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[TX Flyer]

Originally Posted by Medford http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm Another week passes, and it surprises me to see that UD dropped another 1 spot in this week's dance card. I assumed the win at Rhody would have bumped them up a few spots, though I've taken no consideration for what other teams around them have done. anyhoo, 32 for the time being for those that follow dance card.

I thought I was losing my mind. I also would have thought Dayton would move up but nope...

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[CE80]

Don't forget, other teams do things to move up also. I don't see anyone ahead of us that doesnt belong there.

[Bill202]

Originally Posted by CE80 Don't forget, other teams do things to move up also. I don't see anyone ahead of us that doesnt belong there.

Minnesota? Possibly Michigan State?

[CE80]

Originally Posted by Bill202 Minnesota? Possibly Michigan State?

I'd might give you MSU but not Minn. Minn is RPI 25 and 4-5 vs 1-50. MSU is RPI 42 and also 4-5 against top 50 but more losses below. Interesting that 2 of MSU's wins are against Minn.

Remember DanceCard is predicting what the committee will do base on past selections. We know the committee values top 50 wins and even top 25 wins more. So objectively, we are all close but I understand why those 2 are higher.

[ud2]

Some of the Dance Card teams already have quite a few losses...based upon past history, it looks like 14 losses is the most a team can have and still get an at large bid...the committee must frown on 15 or more losses.

Current losses and still in the field per Dance Card:

Georgetown 12
Syracuse 10
Wake Forest 10
Michigan State 10

Providence 11, 1 spot below the cut line


So, I would say that if you are a p5 or BE team, 14 losses is acceptable and not a deal breaker.


http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...istory/atlarge

[CE80]

Originally Posted by ud2 Some of the Dance Card teams already have quite a few losses...based upon past history, it looks like 14 losses is the most a team can have and still get an at large bid...the committee must frown on 15 or more losses. Current losses and still in the field per Dance Card: Georgetown 12 Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 10 Michigan State 10 Providence 11, 1 spot below the cut line So, I would say that if you are a p5 or BE team, 14 losses is acceptable and not a deal breaker. http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...istory/atlarge

Recent committees have said it is more about the quality Ws than the Ls. Georgetown has wins against RPI 3, 12, 17 and no losses >100. Wake is the one that still baffles me. Best win is vs RPI 52 but their RPI is 30.

[UDFlyer23]

Updated Bubble Watch:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Dayton [19-5 (10-2), RPI: 30, SOS: 73] Dayton's win at Rhode Island was a much bigger bummer for the Rams than it was a boost for the Flyers, at least in regards to each team's resume. As emotionally cathartic as a road win like that can be, the Rams absolutely needed it more. Then again, it's fair to note that it was Dayton's second top-50 win of the season, the first of which also came against Rhode Island. Archie Miller's team is snug in the bracket for now, but it's still got work to do to feel safe.

[Beatty Town Coach]

USA TODAY has Dayton as 7 seed vs 10 Michigan state, playing in Orlando out of East Region.

That's a little progress and love from USA TODAY. FLYERS need to make most of their own breaks; but a little help from the A10 tournament seeding gods would also go along way towards improving NCAA seeding. In other words, right schools on the right side of the A10 bracket, could be big deal

[LIBob]

I find it interesting that the writers have VCU ahead of Dayton in their poll, but the coaches did not give VCU a single vote. Are the coaches not buying their "luck factor"?

[m21eagle45]

Originally Posted by LIBob I find it interesting that the writers have VCU ahead of Dayton in their poll, but the coaches did not give VCU a single vote. Are the coaches not buying their "luck factor"?

We are one spot ahead of them in the BPI, they are 1 spot better than us in the RPI, and we are about 10 spots better than them on Kenpom. We are pretty equal.