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Old 06-24-2020, 11:21 AM
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Post PER & GmSc Leaders Since 1992

With no live sports, seems like most media is rankings or top 10 lists ...

Got to thinking about "10 Best Flyers" since my freshman year (1992), and how to compare across positions. Forgive me if any of these "advanced metrics" are on the Pride Plus side.

There is a complicated formula for Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Bleacher Report developed a "linear weighted PER" which is fairly representative, so I used that. Some data missing for older guys, like turnovers & fouls that would drive down their lwPER.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...t-all-the-mess

There's another called "Game Score" which better recognizes guard play.
Game Score (GmSc): (points + (0.4 * field_goals_made) - (0.7 * field_goals_attempted) - (0.4 * (free_throws_attempted - free_throws_made)) + (0.7 * offensive_rebounds) + (0.3 * defensive_rebounds) + steals + (0.7 * assists) + (0.7 * blocks) - (0.4 * personal_fouls) - turnovers) / games

So I hand-picked my 21 most relevant players since 1992 and compiled their stats between https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/dayton/ and the UD media guide. Fun to study the anomalies.

SORT BY PER


SORT BY GMSC


SORT BY AVERAGE OF PER & GMSC


Download the Excel file:

https://app.box.com/s/ywkuqvmag11rlvjfv2eur1o5ahsauzzb

Last edited by Columbia Blue; 06-25-2020 at 12:28 PM.. Reason: Fixed Pre-2002 stats, Brooks Hall - thanks Figgie
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Old 06-24-2020, 12:41 PM
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Great stuff love it. Since PER is almost twice as big as game score a straight average overemphasizes PER vs game score. Could you weight them the same, divide them both by their means before you add them together for example. Also do you have some equivalent career stats that will account for the 4 year guys vs the one or two year guys, or rewards the high minute guys who are durable and didn't get injured?

Editing to add that I am surprised that Obi is not such a runaway as the greatest Flyer. Its actually closer than I would have guessed.

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Old 06-24-2020, 01:57 PM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
Great stuff love it. Since PER is almost twice as big as game score a straight average overemphasizes PER vs game score. Could you weight them the same, divide them both by their means before you add them together for example. Also do you have some equivalent career stats that will account for the 4 year guys vs the one or two year guys, or rewards the high minute guys who are durable and didn't get injured?

Editing to add that I am surprised that Obi is not such a runaway as the greatest Flyer. Its actually closer than I would have guessed.
Good point on weighting. I converted each value to a % of the total for each category (probably other ways to do it) then added them -- didn't affect the rankings that much.

Any bias (good or bad) for games and minutes should be removed, since PER is divided by minutes and GmSc by games ... so Obi's efficiency over two years is judged the same as Perryman's over four.

Last edited by Columbia Blue; 06-25-2020 at 11:13 AM..
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Old 06-24-2020, 02:56 PM
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some observations -- please share yours!

-- both of these rank BRob & Stanley pretty closely. Tony was good but a volume shooter. Seems like there's not enough weight on accuracy
-- Tony has surprisingly few fouls and turnovers (maybe because he never held it long enough, ha ha)
-- Alex Robertson is the real revelation on both counts. I suffered thru most of those games & just don't remember much about him. Will have to dig up some YouTube highlights
-- I wish I had foul stats for Perryman ... could dredge up from old programs
-- Transfers stack up well when adjusted for UD years only
-- Mark Ashman fared well. I recall him lacking the grit of RP & KW, but refined with some range. No doubt KW benefited from Finn's presence. Ashman was Soph when RP was Senior
-- Ashman 10% less on 2P% than KW, 315 less DRB!
-- Ashman was 6'10" but had almost as many blocks as RP & KW combined ... and Charles Cooke had one more than Ashman !?!?!?? UD has him with one more than sports-ref = 99. Explain that one. All-time, Chapman had 124 to lead guards

Last edited by Columbia Blue; 06-25-2020 at 12:54 PM..
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Old 06-24-2020, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Columbia Blue View Post
some observations -- please share yours!

-- I wish I had foul stats for Perryman ... could dredge up from old programs
329 fouls over his 4 years.

Originally Posted by Columbia Blue View Post
-- Why do we love Sibert so much? His clutchness? That he came to UD from mighty Ohio State? Doesn't stack up well on either metric. Statistically he's Chip Hare
Unfortunately, the stats you have are for all of these players FULL college careers. So you are showing his paltry amounts from Ohio State in with his Flyer stats. If you remove his Ohio State stats, I have the PER at 15.99, or good enough for 9th on your list.

Of course, the same is true for Cunningham. I calculate his UD PER at 18.46.

With that said, I'm curious if you (or Bleacher Report) are calculating "Field Goal" value based solely on 2pt values. My query is based on all field goals (2 and 3 pointers) and am getting slightly different numbers in certain areas. I have Obi PER at 24.84, you have 24.90. I haven't modified the query for 2ptr vs 3ptr yet to confirm/deny that assumption. I also have Brooks Hall at 15.08, compared to your 28.76, so that is why I have to go back and double check my numbers and compare 2ptr vs 3ptr.

(Oh, and Dalton Stewart (walk-on) is #1 @ 53.89 )

Figgie
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Old 06-24-2020, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
329 fouls over his 4 years.

Unfortunately, the stats you have are for all of these players FULL college careers. So you are showing his paltry amounts from Ohio State in with his Flyer stats. If you remove his Ohio State stats, I have the PER at 15.99, or good enough for 9th on your list.

With that said, I'm curious if you (or Bleacher Report) are calculating "Field Goal" value based solely on 2pt values. My query is based on all field goals (2 and 3 pointers) and am getting slightly different numbers in certain areas. I have Obi PER at 24.84, you have 24.90. I haven't modified the query for 2ptr vs 3ptr yet to confirm/deny that assumption. I also have Brooks Hall at 15.08, compared to your 28.76, so that is why I have to go back and double check my numbers and compare 2ptr vs 3ptr.
I didn't even think about 2PT vs 3PT -- just translated the formula into Excel. My data appears to combine 2P & 3P under FG, so it should be accurate. You could certainly omit pre-transfer seasons.

Brooks fixed in new tables -- incomplete stats pre-2002.

that's why we love you Figgie! I love the debate more than the data -- thanks!

Last edited by Columbia Blue; 06-25-2020 at 11:15 AM..
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Old 06-24-2020, 06:35 PM
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Interesting stuff.

Reflecting on the past 7 years, where would those teams be without Scoochie or Jalen? yet, they don't rate very high. Across the measures, Jalen ranks better than Scoochie.
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Old 06-24-2020, 09:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Columbia Blue View Post
some observations -- please share yours!

-- both of these rank BRob & Stanley pretty closely. Tony was good but a volume shooter. Seems like there's not enough weight on accuracy
-- Tony has surprisingly few fouls and turnovers (maybe because he never held it long enough, ha ha)
-- Alex Robertson is the real revelation on both counts. I suffered thru most of those games & just don't remember much about him. Will have to dig up some YouTube highlights
-- I wish I had foul stats for Perryman ... could dredge up from old programs
-- Why do we love Sibert so much? His clutchness? That he came to UD from mighty Ohio State? Doesn't stack up well on either metric. Statistically he's Chip Hare
-- Mark Ashman fared well. I recall him lacking the grit of RP & KW, but refined with some range. No doubt KW benefited from Finn's presence. Ashman was Soph when RP was Senior
-- Ashman 10% less on 2P% than KW, 315 less DRB!
-- Ashman was 6'10" but had almost as many blocks as RP & KW combined ... and Charles Cooke had one more than Ashman !?!?!?? UD has him with one more than sports-ref = 99. Explain that one. All-time, Chapman had 124 to lead guards
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Old 06-25-2020, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Columbia Blue View Post
Not sure about Brooks. I re-copied his stats from sports-ref, and re-pasted the formula, getting the 28.76. Might be worth cross-referencing against UD media guide.
Found an issue on my side, doubling up the 2000 year. (KW turnover discrepency between box scores and media guides...)

But, I resolved that issue, and I get Brooks at 15.08. Comparing, the numbers you have are off from mine in a few areas:

Code:

  stat     | ColmumbiaBlue | FigStats
-----------|---------------|-----------
 minutes   |     1969      |   3731
 off_rebs  |      143      |    209
 def_rebs  |      364      |    477
 turnovers |      143      |    185
 fouls     |      173      |    242    
Some negative player stats (turnovers/fouls) and bad number for inverse division (1 / minutes).

With a current debate about if a current player will play this year, it's interesting to note that that Figstats Bleacher Report PER rating puts Chase Johnson at #2 for all (full-time*) players since around 2000.)

--Figgie

(* - Dalton Stewart - 53.89, William Brady - 41.04, Camron Greer - 20.37)
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:43 AM
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Well, we are seeing the advent of analytics to UDPride! I love it! One comment on Ryan Perryman. He was here during some difficult years; he played the 4 at 6'5" or 6'6". I always thought that if Ryan were 6'9" or so, he would have made a prototype NBA power forward. He was such a beast on the boards.
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Old 06-25-2020, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
Found an issue on my side, doubling up the 2000 year. (KW turnover discrepency between box scores and media guides...)

But, I resolved that issue, and I get Brooks at 15.08. Comparing, the numbers you have are off from mine in a few areas:

Code:

  stat     | ColmumbiaBlue | FigStats
-----------|---------------|-----------
 minutes   |     1969      |   3731
 off_rebs  |      143      |    209
 def_rebs  |      364      |    477
 turnovers |      143      |    185
 fouls     |      173      |    242    
Some negative player stats (turnovers/fouls) and bad number for inverse division (1 / minutes).

With a current debate about if a current player will play this year, it's interesting to note that that Figstats Bleacher Report PER rating puts Chase Johnson at #2 for all (full-time*) players since around 2000.)
Discovered why -- until 2001-02, there's some gaps at sports-ref (M, ORB, DRB, TOV, PF). See Brooks' totals:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...ks-hall-1.html

UD media guides don't distinguish btw ORB & DRB -- where are you getting your stats? Manually compiling from box scores? TO & F too.

Above jpg tables now updated with corrected data, plus downloadable xls -- thanks Figgie.

Last edited by Columbia Blue; 06-25-2020 at 11:24 AM..
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Old 06-25-2020, 11:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Columbia Blue View Post

...Any bias (good or bad) for games and minutes should be removed, since PER is divided by minutes and GmSc by games ... so Obi's efficiency over two years is judged the same as Perryman's over four.
I know that PER and GmSc are rate stats, I was just wondering how the order changes if you go to career stats.
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Old 06-25-2020, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
I know that PER and GmSc are rate stats, I was just wondering how the order changes if you go to career stats.
Not sure I understand your question, UDEE. This uses both -- career stats divided by games or mins so you can judge Obi and 4-year players equally.

We have gross career leaders in every category, both total and per game (point, rebounds, %, FT's, steals, etc).

Without dividing by mins or games, you wouldn't definitely favor not only 4-year starters, but also those able to play extensively in the postseason. Figgie?

Since you asked and I'm curious, after another correction above to add KW's Freshman minutes (which doesn't penalize him here), here's PER without dividing by mins:


Last edited by Columbia Blue; 06-25-2020 at 12:30 PM..
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Old 06-25-2020, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Columbia Blue View Post
UD media guides don't distinguish btw ORB & DRB -- where are you getting your stats? Manually compiling from box scores? TO & F too.

Above jpg tables now updated with corrected data, plus downloadable xls -- thanks Figgie.
From 2000-current, box score data. Prior to 2000 (back to 49-50), yearly media guide summaries. I am missing some of those stats in the 90's when they did actually exist, so I have to go back to the media guide pictures to see if I didn't enter something correctly.
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Old 06-25-2020, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
I know that PER and GmSc are rate stats, I was just wondering how the order changes if you go to career stats.
Originally Posted by Columbia Blue View Post
Not sure I understand your question, UDEE. This uses both -- career stats divided by games or mins so you can judge Obi and 4-year players equally.

We have gross career leaders in every category, both total and per game (point, rebounds, %, FT's, steals, etc).

Without dividing by mins or games, you wouldn't definitely favor not only 4-year starters, but also those able to play extensively in the postseason. Figgie?
Right, these are using player career stats. So, for Brooks Hall 4 years, for Obi Toppin, only 2 years. I don't think this is favoring length of career, but more type of player. Those at the top of the list seem to be the 4/5 where they have higher FG% and more rebounds because of being close to the basket players, where as guards who are either not shooting or take a ton of shots drop down in certain categories.

Start at the top, Toppin, Chase Johnson, Finn, Cunningham, Perryman, Cooke, Chris Johnson, Waleskowski, Wright, Corbitt. Then Jordan Sibert.

All of those guys were inside players, or players that crashed the board hard. (Cooke/Chris Johnson).

Heck, I have Trey Landers at 15.62 and Brian Roberts at 15.33. Draw your own conclusion there.
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Old 06-25-2020, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
I don't think this is favoring length of career, but more type of player. Those at the top of the list seem to be the 4/5 where they have higher FG% and more rebounds because of being close to the basket players, where as guards who are either not shooting or take a ton of shots drop down in certain categories.

Heck, I have Trey Landers at 15.62 and Brian Roberts at 15.33. Draw your own conclusion there.
Would a better formula more heavily weight perimeter skills (3PT, AST, STL) and slightly de-emphasize rebounds & blocks? Stanley was a surprisingly good rebounder, whereas Obi & Josh were weak ORB.

Chris Johnson & Chris Wright finished #4 & #5 all-time in career offensive rebounding, on the same team. What an athletic team that was. Probably should have accomplished more -- maybe an NCAA victory and NIT title was enough?

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Old 06-25-2020, 02:39 PM
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You may think Obi was a weak ORB but only because he was not told to go pound the offensive boards to stay away from fouls with a very thin team. Had this team had a healthy Chase Johnson and a better and more-conditioned Jordy he would have shown what he could do on the boards.
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Old 06-25-2020, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Columbia Blue View Post
Not sure I understand your question, UDEE. This uses both -- career stats divided by games or mins so you can judge Obi and 4-year players equally.

We have gross career leaders in every category, both total and per game (point, rebounds, %, FT's, steals, etc).

Without dividing by mins or games, you wouldn't definitely favor not only 4-year starters, but also those able to play extensively in the postseason. Figgie?

Since you asked and I'm curious, after another correction above to add KW's Freshman minutes (which doesn't penalize him here), here's PER without dividing by mins:


I want to see total contributions. To answer questions like "Did brian roberts do more for the Flyers than Obi because he played 4 years instead of two?" Its like in baseball we celebrate and study both. Career home runs verses most homeruns per at bat or per 162 game season.
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Old 06-25-2020, 06:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Columbia Blue View Post
Would a better formula more heavily weight perimeter skills (3PT, AST, STL) and slightly de-emphasize rebounds & blocks? Stanley was a surprisingly good rebounder, whereas Obi & Josh were weak ORB.

Chris Johnson & Chris Wright finished #4 & #5 all-time in career offensive rebounding, on the same team. What an athletic team that was. Probably should have accomplished more -- maybe an NCAA victory and NIT title was enough?
Johnson and Wright; offensive rebounding stats reflect the weak offensive teams of the BG era as well as lack of emphasis on scoring skills. BG was all about defense and rebounding.
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  #20  
Old 06-25-2020, 11:24 PM
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Couple of things standout...man we took a lot of threes in the early & mid 2000s. I remember BRob being a great shooter but 44% from deep for his career at his volume is shockingly good.

Stanley, BRob, Brooks and Ramods number of makes are impressive. I feel like Jalen chuck's up a bunch and he will likely end up 40-50 makes short of BRob, Stanley and Brooks.

Robertson was absolutely a beast in regards to steals. It looks like Jalen is better than Scoochie on O (shooting, assists) but the steals difference is significant. Jalen's 164 fouls in 3 years with all the minutes he logged seems light. Could probably be a little more aggressive this year.
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Columbia Blue (06-26-2020)
  #21  
Old 06-26-2020, 02:01 AM
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I expected BRob's PER to be a lot higher
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