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  #1  
Old 03-05-2018, 03:35 PM
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For anyone who might have missed the significance

On a team averaging almost 14 TO per game, we had a freshman point guard start 21 games and finished the regular season with a > 2.0:1 assist to TO ratio.

That's darn good for a team that overall threw it into the stands as much as they threw it toward the rim.

2018: 13.9 TO per game, Crutcher 2.06
2017: 12.9
2016: 12.9
2015: 11.5
2014: 11.9
2013: 14.5 (Khari Price: 1.65)
2012: 13.0
2011: 13.25
2010: 14.5 (Lowrey 1.6, Warren 1.8)
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Old 03-05-2018, 03:41 PM
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Staten's A/T here was 5.4/2.6. Crutcher's is 4.3/2.1 which is great considering Staten had better guys around him to finish
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Old 03-05-2018, 04:29 PM
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So this is saying that this team averaged only one more TO per game than last years team that started 4 seniors? That doesn’t seem too bad.
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Old 03-05-2018, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by UD93 Steve View Post
So this is saying that this team averaged only one more TO per game than last years team that started 4 seniors? That doesn’t seem too bad.
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An average is a statistic. It does not mean it's a descriptive statistic. Our competition was worse this year, there's an effective limitation on the minimum number of TO you can reasonably expect (so it's not realistically bounded by 0 it's bounded by about 11, so it's like a 33% increase), and there were a couple of statistical outliers this year that I don't remember in years past.
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Old 03-05-2018, 05:40 PM
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A few other stats that stick out.

Last year's team MADE 530 free throws vs this year's team only attempted 515.
Last year's team only gave up 66.4 points/game (Top 50) while this year's team 73.3.
Last year's team was 38th in the country in 3P% at 38.5%, while this year's team is 233rd at 34%. Yet, this year's team is on pace to shoot 100 more threes than last year's.
This year's team is 3rd, yes 3rd, in 2P% at ~60%.
This year's team is one of the WORST rebounding teams in the country, ranked 341st.
This year's team is 305th in Opponent's FG% and 335th in Opponents 3P%
Last year's team created 479 TO's vs committing 376
This year's team created 380 TO's vs committing 415

Quick summary - last year's team had no problem absorbing 13 TO/game, because they could back it up defensively - from a FG%, points/game and creating TO's. They were a better rebounding team and certainly controlled pace and tempo better, getting to the foul line astronomically more than this year's team.

If there was a player from last year's team that really could help this year's, I would say Kyle Davis and what he brought on the defensive end of the floor. Sure, any of the other 3 seniors would be welcomed additions to this year's team, but it appears that so many of our problems are defensive breakdowns and inadequacies.

Last edited by SLUFLYER; 03-05-2018 at 05:44 PM..
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Old 03-05-2018, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
A few other stats that stick out.

Last year's team MADE 530 free throws vs this year's team only attempted 515.
Last year's team only gave up 66.4 points/game (Top 50) while this year's team 73.3.
Last year's team was 38th in the country in 3P% at 38.5%, while this year's team is 233rd at 34%. Yet, this year's team is on pace to shoot 100 more threes than last year's.
This year's team is 3rd, yes 3rd, in 2P% at ~60%.
This year's team is one of the WORST rebounding teams in the country, ranked 341st.
This year's team is 305th in Opponent's FG% and 335th in Opponents 3P%
Last year's team created 479 TO's vs committing 376
This year's team created 380 TO's vs committing 415

Quick summary - last year's team had no problem absorbing 13 TO/game, because they could back it up defensively - from a FG%, points/game and creating TO's. They were a better rebounding team and certainly controlled pace and tempo better, getting to the foul line astronomically more than this year's team.

If there was a player from last year's team that really could help this year's, I would say Kyle Davis and what he brought on the defensive end of the floor. Sure, any of the other 3 seniors would be welcomed additions to this year's team, but it appears that so many of our problems are defensive breakdowns and inadequacies.
Well done!

What this means is if you're good...turnovers aren't necessarily bad, but if you're bad, turnovers are not good. Got it.
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Old 03-06-2018, 09:05 AM
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Originally Posted by UD93 Steve View Post
So this is saying that this team averaged only one more TO per game than last years team that started 4 seniors? That doesn’t seem too bad.
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Never would have guessed that. They definitely went thru a major stretch where the TO's were reduced quite a bit per game. I wonder what the dreaded "points scored off of TO's" was for this team. I'm betting quite a few based on how bad this team defended in the half-court and especially the 3 ball.
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Old 03-06-2018, 09:55 AM
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Originally Posted by steve View Post
Never would have guessed that. They definitely went thru a major stretch where the TO's were reduced quite a bit per game. I wonder what the dreaded "points scored off of TO's" was for this team. I'm betting quite a few based on how bad this team defended in the half-court and especially the 3 ball.
I think the perception of total turnovers, or average per game, was much greater because we had a bunch of games where it was atrocious. For example, we had NINE (9) games where we committed 17 or more turnovers, eclipsing 20 on 3 occasions. Surprisingly, we had less than 10 turnovers 6 times and went 2-4 in those games. But we did lose all 5 of our highest turnover games.

Conversely, last year we only had 2 games where we had more than 17 turnovers and had 7 games where we had less than 10 turnovers - and several were against our "best" competition of the season in Wichita St., Vandy and Northwestern.
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Old 03-06-2018, 11:09 AM
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look at jeff dowtin from rhody -- #3 nationally.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketbal...individual/473

josh still 7th in FG% -- just didn't shoot enough.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketbal...individual/141

good to see ryan perryman in the house saturday -- looks like he can still play.
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Old 03-06-2018, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
If there was a player from last year's team that really could help this year's, I would say Kyle Davis and what he brought on the defensive end of the floor. Sure, any of the other 3 seniors would be welcomed additions to this year's team, but it appears that so many of our problems are defensive breakdowns and inadequacies.
Kyle Davis on this year's team would have killed AT LEAST one teammate on the court with dirty looks alone.
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Old 03-06-2018, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Whacker View Post
Kyle Davis on this year's team would have killed AT LEAST one teammate on the court with dirty looks alone.
And he'd probably hold Tillman to <20 pts.
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Old 03-06-2018, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Columbia Blue View Post
look at jeff dowtin from rhody -- #3 nationally.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketbal...individual/473

josh still 7th in FG% -- just didn't shoot enough.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketbal...individual/141

good to see ryan perryman in the house saturday -- looks like he can still play.
Saw him walking with a friend down Lowes St last fall during Parent/Family weekend. Dude still looked ripped, even at 41-42 years old (i.e. old enough to have a kid on this year's team).
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Old 03-06-2018, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Whacker View Post
Kyle Davis on this year's team would have killed AT LEAST one teammate on the court with dirty looks alone.
Or a teammate on the bench (i.e. "you know who").
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Old 03-06-2018, 08:15 PM
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People have overlooked the rebounding edge of other teams this year. Turnovers were pretty obvious. Atrocious defense.... pretty blatant.

But when has a Flyer team been so low and so outrebounded in the last 10 to 12 years. Not many , if any.

This falls back to the bench issues/X issues and lack of early development from Kostas. Nobody was helping Trey and Josh really. And key guys were worried , and often did commit too many fouls.

Our passing and 2pt Shooting percentage is what kept us in games, when not turning over the ball.

Past flyer teams have had the rebounding strength and edge to control the ball. Without K Pollard , Huelsman in the Middle, guys boarding - we never either fast break or control the half court tempo like we did when we wanted.

We were based on ball control and possessions under Gregory. His were pretty outstanding rebounding teams. Then under Coach Miller more a ball movement, 3 ball, steals, outlast other teams and close games team.

I'm really looking forward to the personality of this team taking shape the next two years. With 2 or 3 of the right guys, we could have something - the nucleus isn't as bad as it seems. But we need to get to rebounding skill and consistency.

Trey and Josh both have the nose and drive to rebound. I hope it rubs off on the remaining guys. Andthat OBi and Kostas help with that.
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Old 03-06-2018, 08:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 86 View Post
People have overlooked the rebounding edge of other teams this year. Turnovers were pretty obvious. Atrocious defense.... pretty blatant.

But when has a Flyer team been so low and so outrebounded in the last 10 to 12 years. Not many , if any.

This falls back to the bench issues/X issues and lack of early development from Kostas. Nobody was helping Trey and Josh really. And key guys were worried , and often did commit too many fouls.

Our passing and 2pt Shooting percentage is what kept us in games, when not turning over the ball.

Past flyer teams have had the rebounding strength and edge to control the ball. Without K Pollard , Huelsman in the Middle, guys boarding - we never either fast break or control the half court tempo like we did when we wanted.

We were based on ball control and possessions under Gregory. His were pretty outstanding rebounding teams. Then under Coach Miller more a ball movement, 3 ball, steals, outlast other teams and close games team.

I'm really looking forward to the personality of this team taking shape the next two years. With 2 or 3 of the right guys, we could have something - the nucleus isn't as bad as it seems. But we need to get to rebounding skill and consistency.

Trey and Josh both have the nose and drive to rebound. I hope it rubs off on the remaining guys. Andthat OBi and Kostas help with that.
What was the rebounding differential when we were playing with 6.5 players?
Majerus teams would retreat after the shot but their packed in D was excellent.
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Old 03-06-2018, 08:32 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Saw him walking with a friend down Lowes St last fall during Parent/Family weekend. Dude still looked ripped, even at 41-42 years old (i.e. old enough to have a kid on this year's team).
Absolutely one of the nicest guys to come through program in last 40 years.
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Old 03-06-2018, 08:37 PM
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Old 03-06-2018, 08:38 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Saw him walking with a friend down Lowes St last fall during Parent/Family weekend. Dude still looked ripped, even at 41-42 years old (i.e. old enough to have a kid on this year's team).
RP also in Indy for Wichita St game. He was leading Flyer cheers at local pub pre-game...loves his alma mater.
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Old 03-06-2018, 08:39 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
A few other stats that stick out.

Last year's team MADE 530 free throws vs this year's team only attempted 515.
Last year's team only gave up 66.4 points/game (Top 50) while this year's team 73.3.
Last year's team was 38th in the country in 3P% at 38.5%, while this year's team is 233rd at 34%. Yet, this year's team is on pace to shoot 100 more threes than last year's.
This year's team is 3rd, yes 3rd, in 2P% at ~60%.
This year's team is one of the WORST rebounding teams in the country, ranked 341st.
This year's team is 305th in Opponent's FG% and 335th in Opponents 3P%
Last year's team created 479 TO's vs committing 376
This year's team created 380 TO's vs committing 415

Quick summary - last year's team had no problem absorbing 13 TO/game, because they could back it up defensively - from a FG%, points/game and creating TO's. They were a better rebounding team and certainly controlled pace and tempo better, getting to the foul line astronomically more than this year's team.

If there was a player from last year's team that really could help this year's, I would say Kyle Davis and what he brought on the defensive end of the floor. Sure, any of the other 3 seniors would be welcomed additions to this year's team, but it appears that so many of our problems are defensive breakdowns and inadequacies.
There is also a clear correlation between opponent’s fg% and rebounding, end result is the same.
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Old 03-06-2018, 08:51 PM
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Possessions per game need to be factored when looking at turnovers per game. If you have 50 possessions per game and turn it over, 14 times a game, this is really bad. If you have 100 possessions per game and turn it over 14 times a game, it is really good.

Unfortunately, Dayton has turned it over on 20.4% of possessions for #294 in the nation out of 351 teams, which is really bad. #294 is the worst turnover ranking in the last 17 seasons since kenpom started in 2002. I like yearly rankings because emphasis on how refs call fouls, traveling, etc. changes every year which impacts raw %.

Rankings by Year Last 5 Years
2018 = #294 (20.4%)
2017 = #60 (16.9%)
2016 = #219 (18.9%)
2015 = #93 (179%)
2014 = #158 (18.1%)

About 75 offensive possessions a game, think about 1 point a possession so difference between 20% turnovers and 15% turnovers is 3-4 points a game (all this is math is rough and directionally correct).
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Old 03-06-2018, 08:57 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
A few other stats that stick out.

Last year's team MADE 530 free throws vs this year's team only attempted 515.
Last year's team only gave up 66.4 points/game (Top 50) while this year's team 73.3.
Last year's team was 38th in the country in 3P% at 38.5%, while this year's team is 233rd at 34%. Yet, this year's team is on pace to shoot 100 more threes than last year's.
This year's team is 3rd, yes 3rd, in 2P% at ~60%.
This year's team is one of the WORST rebounding teams in the country, ranked 341st.
This year's team is 305th in Opponent's FG% and 335th in Opponents 3P%
Last year's team created 479 TO's vs committing 376
This year's team created 380 TO's vs committing 415

Quick summary - last year's team had no problem absorbing 13 TO/game, because they could back it up defensively - from a FG%, points/game and creating TO's. They were a better rebounding team and certainly controlled pace and tempo better, getting to the foul line astronomically more than this year's team.

If there was a player from last year's team that really could help this year's, I would say Kyle Davis and what he brought on the defensive end of the floor. Sure, any of the other 3 seniors would be welcomed additions to this year's team, but it appears that so many of our problems are defensive breakdowns and inadequacies.
Again, all of this does not adjust for possessions per game and competition. This is why kenpom is much better.

Just to pick up a couple stats. Dayton had slow offensive and defensive tempo, hence less possessions per game and less chance for rebounds. Also Dayton had a great effective field goal percentage, but gave up on defense a high effective field goal percentage, thereby both ways limiting the number of rebounds available because a majority of shots went in offensively and defensively.

Adjusting for this in rebounds. Dayton #139 in the nation in defensive rebounding corralling 72% of rebounds and giving up 28% offensive rebounds on misses. Dayton #282 in offensive rebounds corralling 25.3% of misses and defensive team getting 74.7% of misses. So Dayton probably about #210 in the country in rebounding, NOT 341.

An example, in the January 12th VCU/Dayton game, both Dayton and VCU had 6 offensive rebounds. So you would think at first blush they both hit the offensive boards equally. But Dayton had offensive rebounds for 6/26 misses (FGs and FTs) for 23.1% of misses whereas VCU had offensive rebounds for 6/33 misses for 18.2%. Dayton was materially better on the offensive boards rebounding 5% more of misses, but in the absolute number of offensive rebounds Dayton and VCU were even (you need to look at offensive and defense rebounds separately as well).

Last edited by ruechalgrin; 03-06-2018 at 09:05 PM..
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Old 03-06-2018, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
RP also in Indy for Wichita St game. He was leading Flyer cheers at local pub pre-game...loves his alma mater.
Yup. I was fortunate enough to spend some time with him before that game last year.
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Piqua Flyer '66 View Post
If Perryman in house GW game, why
not introduce him after MVP recognition!
And, during HOF Induction why not introduce
HOFers standing at other and of floor?
Agree on both. Honestly I can't believe the people in charge of the "game day experience" can't get this kind of stuff together. Ryan would have had a standing ovation if they had put the camera on him so people knew he was in attendance. Drives me crazy.
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Lifelong Flyer Fan View Post
Agree on both. Honestly I can't believe the people in charge of the "game day experience" can't get this kind of stuff together. Ryan would have had a standing ovation if they had put the camera on him so people knew he was in attendance. Drives me crazy.
Agree!

I've brought this to the "game day experience" folks several times, and in surveys, etc., etc. My hope is that with "one of our own" now the head coach, this will change. At IU, where there are usually multiple former players in attendance for home games, especially weekend games, they are introduced every single time they attend. Sure it's a blue-blood program, but we have a pretty good history ourselves and to not recognize former players (men and women) is just lazy in my opinion.
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:32 AM
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All year long they had the White Allen MVP recognition in the game program and at one of the media timeouts.
Some of those guys live in the area.....others could have been given an airplane ticket.
I see Dan Christy all season long at the games.
I know all could not have been able to attend, but many could.....GET THEM THERE for the recgonition. My God, Perryman was a 3 time MVP!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 03-07-2018, 09:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Lifelong Flyer Fan View Post
Agree on both. Honestly I can't believe the people in charge of the "game day experience" can't get this kind of stuff together. Ryan would have had a standing ovation if they had put the camera on him so people knew he was in attendance. Drives me crazy.
I know all this discussion is off-topic, but it sometimes seems like the people running “game day experience” should be running in-store promotions at Kroger instead of the atmosphere at a UD game.

I remember being in the Holiday Pep Band for games 10-15 years ago, and the team would be trailing but then go on a run that would cause the opponent’s coach to call timeout, but instead of just letting the Pep Band launch into “Victory” or another cheer song, the “man behind the curtain” in the control room next to Boesch Lounge would pipe-in “Cotton-Eyed Joe” or something like it. Of course, the crowd would go flat, and any momentum we had going into the TO would be lost, not sustained. Pi$$ed me off to no end!

Granted, that part of Game Day has gotten much better. But there’s still a feeling that the people running that part of things wouldn’t recognize Ryan Perryman, Mark Ashman, Brian Roberts, Roosevelt Chapman, or even Don Donoher without a name tag. SMH!
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Old 03-07-2018, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
What was the rebounding differential when we were playing with 6.5 players?
Majerus teams would retreat after the shot but their packed in D was excellent.
that was lower than now, and not as good a reboiunding team as Gregory's and early Mlller teams. But Miller teams were able to cover it up with lower turnovers, greater shooting from 3 (see Sibert et al), ball movement, and fast breaking.
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Old 03-07-2018, 11:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
Agree!

I've brought this to the "game day experience" folks several times, and in surveys, etc., etc. My hope is that with "one of our own" now the head coach, this will change. At IU, where there are usually multiple former players in attendance for home games, especially weekend games, they are introduced every single time they attend. Sure it's a blue-blood program, but we have a pretty good history ourselves and to not recognize former players (men and women) is just lazy in my opinion.
I go to quite a few Providence games and they always announce past players who are in attendance at games and show them on the video board.
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Old 03-08-2018, 03:52 PM
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Crutcher finished the year with a 2.11 ratio.
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