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  #1  
Old 01-21-2024, 05:15 PM
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Latest Rankings

Maybe we could all put rankings in here?
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Old 01-22-2024, 11:46 AM
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This Morning's Power Rankings

How does 14 sound . . .

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...nsas-duke-fall
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  #3  
Old 01-22-2024, 11:56 AM
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12 sounds better.......

#12 in CBS Sports Top 25 + 1
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Old 01-22-2024, 12:06 PM
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The Athletic... #14

https://theathletic.com/5217595/2024...state-houston/

"The Flyers are the fifth-best 3-point shooting team in the country, and Anthony Grant brings his best shooter off the bench in 6-6 wing Koby Brea. Brea has made 51 3s at a 49.5 percent clip, and his ability to make tough ones makes him special. Per Synergy, he’s shooting 55.6 percent on guarded catch-and-shoot attempts. He’s made at least five 3s in four games this season, the latest on Saturday against Rhode Island when he made 5-of-7."
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Old 01-22-2024, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by N2663R View Post
How does 14 sound . . .

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...nsas-duke-fall
"DaRon Holmes II continues to perform at an All-American level for Anthony Grant. He went for 29 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocks in a win over Saint Louis, then finished with 21 points, 6 rebounds and 3 blocks in Saturday's blowout over Rhode Island. He's now averaging 23.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.0 blocks, shooting 58% from the field and 44.4% from 3-point range, in five Atlantic 10 games."
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Old 01-22-2024, 12:20 PM
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What the heck, I'm predicting:
AP - 16
Coaches - 18
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Old 01-22-2024, 02:25 PM
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AP we are in at 16 - Congrats to the team and coaching staff.

Time for an AG extension.
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Old 01-22-2024, 03:29 PM
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Extensions and firings are for the off season. Just enjoy the season and leave the BS regarding the coach, regardless of what side you are on, for after the last game has been played. I am fairly confident AG is not going anywhere unless he is asked to leave, which is the only reason you would extend a coach mid-season.
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Old 01-22-2024, 04:00 PM
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DePaul fires Coach Tony Stubblefield after 3-15 start.
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Old 01-22-2024, 04:04 PM
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That game against Rhody seems to be "that magic moment" when skill, chemistry and coaching are in alignment.
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Old 01-22-2024, 04:14 PM
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#17 in Coaches
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Old 01-22-2024, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by DGO67 View Post
That game against Rhody seems to be "that magic moment" when skill, chemistry and coaching are in alignment.
I agree 100% with your assessment. The execution, the flow and the coaching all seemed to be hitting on all cylinders, but lets not forget that it was against a 9-8 team that doesn't play defense. As Holmes said on Saturday. "Enjoy it, flush it and move on to the next one."
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  #13  
Old 01-23-2024, 11:20 AM
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The Other Top 25: Dayton assumes top spot for first time this season

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2024...me-this-season
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Old 01-23-2024, 11:21 AM
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Mid-Major Power Rankings: Dayton Star DaRon Holmes II Has Flyers Soaring

https://www.flohoops.com/articles/11...flyers-soaring
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  #15  
Old 01-23-2024, 01:12 PM
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Bracketology

As of today, Joe Lunardi has us as a 4 seed:

3 seeds -
Auburn, Kentucky, Illinois, Marquette

4 seeds -
UD, Duke, Baylor, Creighton

5 seeds -
Iowa State, BYU, Oklahoma, Alabama

Upward mobility will be difficult if for no other reason than the strength of our remaining schedule. Win out, maybe. I think the best we can hope for is to hold our position . . .
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Old 01-23-2024, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by N2663R View Post
As of today, Joe Lunardi has us as a 4 seed:
...
Upward mobility will be difficult if for no other reason than the strength of our remaining schedule. Win out, maybe. I think the best we can hope for is to hold our position . . .
No, like the Obi year of '19/'20 if we win out we will be 2 or a 1 seed. 28 and 2 with no bad loss and a 25 game win streak will be a killer resume. If we win the 10 tourney we will be sitting at 31-2 and a definite 1 seed.

We probably do not do this. But we have the precedent.
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Old 01-23-2024, 01:59 PM
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FWIW, T-cast projects UD as the last 2 seed if they win out and win the A-10 championship.


The Path to a 1 seed is really really tough w/o many (any?) top level wins and for certain 0 wins against protected seeds (ie 1-4 seeds). A 2 seed by winning out, seems possible but will certainly need some more chaos at the top.


A 3 seed by winning out seems most likely.


A 4 seed assuming they drop a game or 2 along the way, but no more and none that are real stinkers seems reasonable.
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Old 01-23-2024, 02:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go View Post
No, like the Obi year of '19/'20 if we win out we will be 2 or a 1 seed. 28 and 2 with no bad loss and a 25 game win streak will be a killer resume. If we win the 10 tourney we will be sitting at 31-2 and a definite 1 seed.

We probably do not do this. But we have the precedent.
IIRC, our non-con SOS was not quite as strong as it is this year. Not sure how the A10 compares, but I'm guessing it was not as good overall though had better teams toward the top.
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Old 01-23-2024, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
FWIW, T-cast projects UD as the last 2 seed if they win out and win the A-10 championship.


The Path to a 1 seed is really really tough w/o many (any?) top level wins and for certain 0 wins against protected seeds (ie 1-4 seeds). A 2 seed by winning out, seems possible but will certainly need some more chaos at the top.


A 3 seed by winning out seems most likely.


A 4 seed assuming they drop a game or 2 along the way, but no more and none that are real stinkers seems reasonable.
I have to agree. Winning out is huge, but you also need some of the teams above you to sh!t the bed. Everyone above us is ranked as such for a reason. As a team ranked at 16, you could argue that we are the last 4 seed. you need to somehow jump 3 teams just to get to a 3 seed. Just Win Baby! Beat LaSalle!
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Old 01-23-2024, 03:25 PM
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Glad we are not getting a wee bit ahead of ourselves here.
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Old 01-23-2024, 03:31 PM
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A problem with climbing the rankings is that UD isnít going to make a jump because of who they beat. Teams ranked lower than UD have the opportunity to make a bigger jump because of who they beat. Example: if Creighton beats UConn, they would likely jump past UD. Itís jus the reality.
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Old 01-23-2024, 03:41 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
Glad we are not getting a wee bit ahead of ourselves here.
Is this a speculation on your part?
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  #23  
Old 01-23-2024, 03:51 PM
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How you beat them

Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer View Post
A problem with climbing the rankings is that UD isnít going to make a jump because of who they beat.
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The mysterious NET formula brings in "HOW".
URI is currently 199
SLU is currently 214
I don't know what they were ranked when we played them.

We beat SLU by 5 and slipped a couple spots.
We slap down URI by 34 and jump multiple spots.

"HOW" matters.

LaSalle is currently 213. We need to put a beating on them to improve our NET score. Winning by 5 points, even on the road, isn't going to move our needle in a positive direction. More likely we will slip.
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Old 01-23-2024, 05:34 PM
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
The mysterious NET formula brings in "HOW".
URI is currently 199
SLU is currently 214
I don't know what they were ranked when we played them.

We beat SLU by 5 and slipped a couple spots.
We slap down URI by 34 and jump multiple spots.

"HOW" matters.

LaSalle is currently 213. We need to put a beating on them to improve our NET score. Winning by 5 points, even on the road, isn't going to move our needle in a positive direction. More likely we will slip.
There's no mystery to it:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...ings-explained
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Old 01-23-2024, 05:56 PM
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Originally Posted by flyer016 View Post
There's no mystery to it:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...ings-explained
The NET is not the end all be all. The selection committee in the end still justifies giving preferential treatment to the p5 regardless of what the NET says.

If they relied 100% on the NET ratings as the end all be all, that would be fine with me. The NET in and of itself is somewhat meaningless in terms of the teams on the bubble and/or seedings.

I analyzed the seedings from the past and there is very little correlation between the NET ratings and the seedings. The selection committee just does whatever they feel like doing with the seedings.
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Old 01-24-2024, 09:32 AM
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Not really a ranking per se, but The Athletic just named DaRon on their mid-season 2nd team All American list.


Heís as versatile a big as there is nationally; how else do you explain him being ranked in the top 100 in block percentage and 3-point percentage? Holmes has the sixth-best player efficiency rating in the country, so itís no wonder Dayton plays through him as much as it does. He uses over 30 percent of the teamís possessions, per KenPom ó a top-50 rate nationally ó which may seem like a lot, but itís also why the Flyers have the No. 12 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country. Plus, Holmes is No. 13 nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, which illustrates just how tough a cover he is.
https://theathletic.com/5221867/2024...shared_article
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Old 01-24-2024, 12:47 PM
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Flyers in top 10 in CBS 25&1
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Old 01-24-2024, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
The NET is not the end all be all. The selection committee in the end still justifies giving preferential treatment to the p5 regardless of what the NET says.

If they relied 100% on the NET ratings as the end all be all, that would be fine with me. The NET in and of itself is somewhat meaningless in terms of the teams on the bubble and/or seedings.

I analyzed the seedings from the past and there is very little correlation between the NET ratings and the seedings. The selection committee just does whatever they feel like doing with the seedings.
I don't believe anyone has ever said that the NET is the be all, end all or that seeding is strictly based off the NET. Rather, the NCAA's explanation of what the NET is and is not, has been posted multiple times and there have been multiple discussions of the other metrics used, the scrubbing of the NET data, and the like. The NET is literally the Ncaa Evaluation Tool, so while not the be all end all, it is important whether you agree with it or not.
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  #29  
Old 01-26-2024, 11:27 AM
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1/26/24 Bracketology

Up to a 3 seed in East region (Boston) per Lunardi. https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions
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Beatty Town Coach (01-26-2024)
  #30  
Old 01-26-2024, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyers98 View Post
The NET is literally the Ncaa Evaluation Tool, so while not the be all end all, it is important whether you agree with it or not.
Meh, I am skeptical as to how important it is. It is somewhat meaningless as to seeding and the teams on the bubble, so what good is it really? Again, the selection committee just does whatever they want anyway, I have no idea why they even bothered to invent the NET.

I think they thought they could hoodwink everybody a few years ago when they invented it: look, we have this new metric that we use to evaluate everything with, we really are fair.

But then when people started asking for more transparency as to the NET formula, they refused to provide more transparency.
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Old 01-26-2024, 11:54 AM
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A number one or two seed is within reach, but winning out in the A10 Conference Season and winning three games at Conference Tournament is going to be a monumental task. Just consider the incredible number of Quad 1 and Quad two games that will entail?? WOW, that would be a heck of a run! If anything close to that occurs, look out, a two seed at the least. But, as fans, I am all for getting a little ahead of ourselves...it exciting. GO FLYERS �� TKO Richmond on National Primetime TV.
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Old 01-26-2024, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Meh, I am skeptical as to how important it is. It is somewhat meaningless as to seeding and the teams on the bubble, so what good is it really? Again, the selection committee just does whatever they want anyway, I have no idea why they even bothered to invent the NET.

I think they thought they could hoodwink everybody a few years ago when they invented it: look, we have this new metric that we use to evaluate everything with, we really are fair.

But then when people started asking for more transparency as to the NET formula, they refused to provide more transparency.
Well then I guess we should all just wait until selection Sunday, since the metrics don't mean anything and the committee just does whatever it wants. I mean if their own metric is meaningless, then why would anyone think they actually consider Kenpom, or any of the other data? They don't publish the algorithm, but they do explain how it is used and what goes into it. Of course, you can choose not believe what they are saying but it is hard to have a discussion with someone who just says "its all a lie."
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Old 01-26-2024, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyers98 View Post
Well then I guess we should all just wait until selection Sunday, since the metrics don't mean anything and the committee just does whatever it wants. I mean if their own metric is meaningless, then why would anyone think they actually consider Kenpom, or any of the other data? They don't publish the algorithm, but they do explain how it is used and what goes into it. Of course, you can choose not believe what they are saying but it is hard to have a discussion with someone who just says "its all a lie."
That is exactly what I am saying, just wait until Selection Sunday to see whatever final bs that the selection committee decided to cook up. Again, the NET has little correlation to either seeding or the bubble. The only thing that matters is whatever bs the selection committee decides to come up with. They do consider Kenpom and other data, but the NET is somewhat meaningless.

If you want to know what is really going to happen, then just monitor Torvik and the bracket matrix, both of those are very accurate. The NET is somewhat meaningless.
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Old 01-26-2024, 01:25 PM
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If you believe what the committee says, the NET is a sorting tool, not a ranking. Sorting opponents into quads to provide an overview of each team's accomplishments.

Bracketologists generally believe that the resume metrics (KPI, ESPN SOR, average NET win, average NET loss, NCSOS) are what gets you into the field. If you're on the bubble, those are where you need to be strong.

The predictive metrics (Kenpom, ESPN BPI, Torvik) seem to have an effect on seeding. Sagarin used to be part of this but I believe he stopped rating basketball.
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Old 01-26-2024, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
If you believe what the committee says, the NET is a sorting tool, not a ranking. Sorting opponents into quads to provide an overview of each team's accomplishments.

Bracketologists generally believe that the resume metrics (KPI, ESPN SOR, average NET win, average NET loss, NCSOS) are what gets you into the field. If you're on the bubble, those are where you need to be strong.

The predictive metrics (Kenpom, ESPN BPI, Torvik) seem to have an effect on seeding. Sagarin used to be part of this but I believe he stopped rating basketball.
The Athletic had an article last month which examined this very issue and they found pretty much you mentioned. The resume metrics do seem to be a little more in tune with whether you get selected or not, whereas the predictive have more impact on seeding.
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Old 01-26-2024, 03:04 PM
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Flyers up to #8 in latest CBS Top 25 and 1 rankings
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Beatty Town Coach (01-26-2024)
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Old 01-26-2024, 05:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Runnin' Rebel View Post
Flyers up to #8 in latest CBS Top 25 and 1 rankings
So, it should be no surprise that the "No. 8' ranked team in the country will not have much of a problem with a Richmond?
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Old 01-26-2024, 05:41 PM
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Originally Posted by N2663R View Post
So, it should be no surprise that the "No. 8' ranked team in the country will not have much of a problem with a Richmond?
Who says that?? Is that in an article?? Or, just the silly souracastic point you are making??
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Old 01-26-2024, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Who says that?? Is that in an article?? Or, just the silly souracastic point you are making??
Your second assumption is correct.
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Old 01-26-2024, 06:29 PM
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As of today, Richmond game squeaks in as a potential Q1 win (#74 in the NET)
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Old 01-26-2024, 07:36 PM
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Losing to UD would not hurt Richmond's NET ranking very much, if any, depending on the outcome in other games, they might move up despite a loss to UD. Nevertheless, Saint Joes (75), Bonnies (80), and Mason (82) are stalking right behind Joes and on the Quad 1 fringe line. As the conference season goes on, I wouldn't be surprised if all of the above listed will sneak into the top 75 and become quad one road games.
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Old 01-29-2024, 11:18 AM
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CBS Top 25 and 1... Flyers went from #8 to #12

https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...to-four-games/
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Old 01-29-2024, 12:50 PM
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We'll still be ranked today, my guess is back to #21 or so. The real question is what happens this week. If we only manage to go 1-1 our ranked days are probably over. If we go 2-0 we should be able to move up enough to stay ranked for a while. Provided we don't totally crap the bed (i.e., 0-2) in the tough stretch coming up (@SJU/@VCU).
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Old 01-29-2024, 01:34 PM
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Katz dropped us from 16 to 32. I know. Don't shoot the messenger.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...er-36-rankings
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Old 01-29-2024, 02:00 PM
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Coaches poll dropped us just two spots to 19th.
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Old 01-29-2024, 02:06 PM
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#21 in AP
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Old 01-29-2024, 02:17 PM
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Richmond picked up 4 points in the AP
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Old 01-29-2024, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by pmcmullen View Post
Katz dropped us from 16 to 32. I know. Don't shoot the messenger.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...er-36-rankings
Not shooting the messenger, but I just donít understand some of his logic. Case in point: he cited road wins over San Jose State and Air Force as a reason to move New Mexico up about 7 spots in the rankings. Not to diss New Mexico, but those are the 2 teams at the bottom of the Mountain West. If you canít win those games, you donít deserve to move up in the rankings. Same deal with about a half dozen others.

Oh, well, we need to prove it on the court. Letís get a win tomorrow against the GW Colutionaries!
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Old 01-29-2024, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Not shooting the messenger, but I just donít understand some of his logic.
I hear you! That's why I posted it and started dodging and weaving to avoid whatever crap might get thrown my way.

You're right though. None of it matters in the least, and I really don't like rankings anyways. I just hope the team learns from the loss, and frankly a couple questionable performances we were still able to win, then gets back in rhythm starting tomorrow.
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Old 01-29-2024, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Not shooting the messenger, but I just donít understand some of his logic. Case in point: he cited road wins over San Jose State and Air Force as a reason to move New Mexico up about 7 spots in the rankings. Not to diss New Mexico, but those are the 2 teams at the bottom of the Mountain West. If you canít win those games, you donít deserve to move up in the rankings. Same deal with about a half dozen others.

Oh, well, we need to prove it on the court. Letís get a win tomorrow against the GW Colutionaries!
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I sort of feel if you have your own rankings you get to use whatever methodology you want. They way I look at Katz and the Top 25 and 1, is that it is nice to be mentioned and considered one of the better teams in the country but it really is just opinion, (like the AP and Coaches Polls).
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Old 02-01-2024, 03:44 AM
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I was shocked to learn South Carolina is still unbeaten at 17-0, with top-10 wins over Tennessee & Kentucky. ButÖ

They are unranked.

We can rightfully be annoyed that a road loss to a good Richmond drops us five spots, but can you imagine being undefeated with two top-10 wins and unranked?
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Old 02-01-2024, 06:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
I was shocked to learn South Carolina is still unbeaten at 17-0, with top-10 wins over Tennessee & Kentucky. ButÖ

They are unranked.

We can rightfully be annoyed that a road loss to a good Richmond drops us five spots, but can you imagine being undefeated with two top-10 wins and unranked?
Perhaps when the shock wears off youíll see that you were looking at the womenís record
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Old 02-01-2024, 09:29 AM
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Mid-week, and we've already seen 5 of the top 25 lose a game (#3,5,10,15, and 19).
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Old 02-01-2024, 10:09 AM
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And Purdue had to go to OT to beat Nortwestern.
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Old 02-01-2024, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
And Purdue had to go to OT to beat Nortwestern.
Purdue had a 46-8 advantage in attempts from the free throw line, the largest free throw attempt gap in Big Ten conference games over the past 25 seasons
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Old 02-01-2024, 10:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
I was shocked to learn South Carolina is still unbeaten at 17-0, with top-10 wins over Tennessee & Kentucky. ButÖ

They are unranked.

We can rightfully be annoyed that a road loss to a good Richmond drops us five spots, but can you imagine being undefeated with two top-10 wins and unranked?



Umm..... Should I tell him?
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  #57  
Old 02-01-2024, 10:47 AM
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NW whistled for 31 fouls to 15 for Purdue. No wonder the NW coach went crazy on the refs at games end.
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Old 02-01-2024, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Umm..... Should I tell him?
No, keep him in the dark.
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  #59  
Old 02-01-2024, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07 View Post
Perhaps when the shock wears off youíll see that you were looking at the womenís record
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18-3 w/numerous good wins besides UK & Tennessee. Point is valid, even if I didnít get the record correct.

Try something different and donít be a dick today.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_361_Men.html
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Old 02-02-2024, 12:30 PM
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I'll throw this here: Latest projections. Spoiler alert, Dayton still projected #4 seed.

https://collegehoopstoday.net/rothst...kdown-feb-2nd/
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Old 02-02-2024, 04:49 PM
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In that vein, the boys at Hoops HD put UD as their last 4 seed.


UD discussion/4 seed line discussion starts around the 21 min mark of their bracket rundown they did last night (and every thursday I believe)
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Old 02-04-2024, 01:35 AM
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For the past week here are losses by those from those in the top 25

#1 - UCONN - W vs Providence, W @ St. Johns
#2 - Purdue - W vs Northwestern,
#3 - NC - L @ GT, W vs #7 Duke
#4 - Houston - W @ Texas, L @ KU
#5 - Tennessee - L vs South Carolina, W @ Kentucky
#6 - Wisconsin - L @ Nebraska
#7 - Duke - W @ VT, L @ #3 NC
#8 - Kansas - W vs Oklahoma State, W vs #4 Houston
#9 - Marquette - W @ Nova, W @ Georgetown
#10 - Kentucky - L vs Florida, L vs Tennessee
#11 - Arizona - W vs Cal
#12 - Iowa State - L @ #18 Baylor
#13 - Creighton - L vs Butler
#14 - Illinois - W @ Ohio State
#15 - Texas Tech - L @ TCU, L vs Cincy
#16 - Auburn - W vs Vandy, W @ Ole Miss
#17 - Utah State - W vs San Jose State, L @ San Diego State
#18 - Baylor - W @ UCF, W vs Iowa State
#19 - New Mexico - L vs Boise State
#20 Florida Atlantic - W vs Tulsa
#21 - UD - W vs GW, W vs Bonnies
#22 - BYU - W @ WV,
#23 - Oklahoma - W @ K-State, L @ UCF
#24 - Albama - W @ Georgia, W vs Mississippi State
#25 - TCU - L vs Texas


What does that all mean - depending on how Illinois does we should be 16th or 17th next week.

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  #63  
Old 02-04-2024, 09:09 AM
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I donít see us climbing any higher than 18th this week. Not enough losses in the 14-20 range for us to climb 5 spots. 2 or 3, sure, but not 5 IMHO.
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  #64  
Old 02-04-2024, 11:56 AM
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The rating is nice and gets us talked about and on sportscenter, thats for sure. As long as we get the best seed and draw possible, I am fine with that. I would rather be unranked and a 7 seed and get a draw close to home than be ranked 22 and be a 5 seed in Spokane...
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  #65  
Old 02-04-2024, 01:26 PM
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Flyers up 1 on the NET and up 3 to #8 on the 25+1
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Old 02-04-2024, 02:47 PM
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averaging the boards thoughts on upcoming ranking, including my two cents,
we'll be 19th coaches & AP polls.
Assuming we're dancing, 4 or 5 would be good anywhere.
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Old 02-04-2024, 09:59 PM
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U.D. moves up 1 to #20, Texas Tech moves down to #21. That’s my take.
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Old 02-05-2024, 12:39 AM
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Still seeing us at #17 this week moving 4 spots based on others losing.
Kentucky and Texas Tech with 2 loses for the week, and New Mexico and Utah State will all drop below us in the rankings. Potential for Wisconsin to drop big time as well - but likely will end up around 15th just ahead of us. Guess we will find out tomorrow.
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Old 02-05-2024, 10:55 AM
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wasn't really sure where to put this:


https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...y-report-card/


There has been a lot of thought that UD hasn't really been playing their best of late. I can't say I disagree with that feeling, and I'm sure we would all love for UD to be pulling out 20 point victories each game, but from a national perspective, I thought it was interesting that they gave UD an A. Actually I'm surprised that UD was mentioned at all. I think the point of it all, is that we forget and/or don't pay as close attention to everyone else. Top 10 teams are losing road games @ unranked teams at a historically high rate (was less than 50% like a week ago when I saw an article on it, historically they win those roadies over 75% or more during the past 20+ years)


I'm theorize that the combination of the portal, NIL and the extra year of eligibility for COVID that many players are still taking advantage of has lead to perhaps the greatest set of parity that we've seen in a long time. UD may (likely will) drop a few more games before seasons end, but so will most everyone else.


Torvik has had UD favored in every A-10 game since the start of conference play, but a probability of finishing 15-3 overall in conference playing knowing some of those favored wins would like turn into losses (and 1 has so far). Keep on that pace and UD is solidly in place for a decent seed (6 is his forecast including a loss in the A10s). Exceed that and maybe even end up with a protected seed and a reasonably close 1st round site.
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Old 02-05-2024, 11:03 AM
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I think UD has not been playing its best due to 3-point shooting. Since league play has started, with a couple of exceptions, 3-point shooting percentage has dropped off.

Teams have a choice. 1) Double Holmes and let the 3-point line more open or 2) Cover the 3-point line and hope Holmes does not overwhelm you.

The St. Bonaventure game was a typical example. 3-point shots don't fall, and the team is behind at halftime. Second half, Deuce goes off for 25 and the team shoots only 2 3-point shots.

Add that the Bonnies shot lights out 3s in the second half. Some were really tough shots.

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  #71  
Old 02-05-2024, 12:18 PM
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I replied with the below sentiment on Twitter in response to some consistent negative-Nelly's. As a fanbase, in general, we jump to more absolute conclusions, in polarizing directions than any other fanbase. And all before the first TV timeout. Some of these are "fans" with agendas (they hate AG). Some want perfection every game. Other are simply uninformed or unrealistic.

Friday night wasn't pretty. 3-15 from behind the arc, following a 1-12 first half. So we only took 3 threes in the second half. Making 2. Santos was off. Bennett was off. Elvis and Brea were off. We didn't have our outside game. Yet, we adjusted, literally pounding Holmes every second half possession. And found a way to get a Q2 W over STB team coming off back-to-back wins over STJ and VCU.

Not all wins are going to look great. But I can say with confidence that we are a very good three point shooting team. Taking open threes will be and should be a focal point of our offense. Holmes is an unselfish player. If he's not abusing his matchup or finding ways to beat the double team, he typically finds the open guy on the arc. We're taking good shots. Our defense is continuing to improve - up to 69 in KenPom. This is a team that is growing and maturing, finding ways to win when we're not at our best (like not making threes).

Our turnovers have drastically improved. We're getting better and better on the glass. When, not if, our 3-point shooting resurfaces, we're as dangerous of a team as there is outside the Top 5.

Relax and enjoy the ride, even what will be a pitfall or two. For the venom that some people like to spew towards AG and his coaching style/pace or his adjustments (some would say lack thereof), you're enjoying 2 seasons in a 5 year span that few other Dayton generations have.
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  #72  
Old 02-05-2024, 01:49 PM
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UD up 2 in the coaches poll to 17
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Old 02-05-2024, 02:03 PM
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up 3 to 18 in the AP poll
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Old 02-05-2024, 02:10 PM
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It must be nice to be Kansas. 5-3 in last 8 games and two losses to WVa and UCF. Yet not only are they insulated from falling lower than #8 in the polls, they win a game and jump right back up inside the top 5. And a crooked coach to boot!
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  #75  
Old 02-05-2024, 02:50 PM
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Amazing - there are 10 teams with 5 or 6 losses ahead of us in the polls - including Bama which leap frogged us somehow moving up 8 places. Definitely under ranked at 18. I like the CBS top 25 and 1 - that poll has a better grasp on reality.
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Old 02-05-2024, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
It must be nice to be Kansas. 5-3 in last 8 games and two losses to WVa and UCF. Yet not only are they insulated from falling lower than #8 in the polls, they win a game and jump right back up inside the top 5. And a crooked coach to boot!
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Correct me if I am wrong but that game they won to jump right back into the top 5 was against a top 10 team. I have watched Kansas several times this year. If UD is #17/18, I have no problem with Kansas being in the top 5 or there about. We talk about land mines in our conference being small gyms and funky setups. In a lot of conferences, the land mines are good teams.
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Old 02-05-2024, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411 View Post
Amazing - there are 10 teams with 5 or 6 losses ahead of us in the polls - including Bama which leap frogged us somehow moving up 8 places. Definitely under ranked at 18. I like the CBS top 25 and 1 - that poll has a better grasp on reality.
This week we beat two mediocre teams at home. We moved up 2 in one poll and 3 in the other. I am good with that. We have 0 wins over ranked teams this season, and have played 1. I think our ranking is about where it belongs. Everyone else, I don't care where they are ranked.
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  #78  
Old 02-05-2024, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
It must be nice to be Kansas. 5-3 in last 8 games and two losses to WVa and UCF. Yet not only are they insulated from falling lower than #8 in the polls, they win a game and jump right back up inside the top 5. And a crooked coach to boot!
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UCF is 67 in the NET and the game was in Orlando. How is that a bad loss?

You also forgot to mention that Kansas destroyed a top-5 team on Saturday.
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Old 02-05-2024, 03:34 PM
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South Carolina jumping us is a little rich.

There is a reason they went unranked for so long. USC played the 333rd ranked non-conference schedule in America. Despite having such a gaudy record (19-3), they sit barely under 40 in the NET (38) and not even under 40 in Ken Pom (44).

Should they be ranked? Absolutely, they might be the hottest team in the country. Should they be ranked ahead of Dayton? Absolutely not. We are as close to 14 in the NET as they are to 40, and they have the same number of Q1 wins.
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  #80  
Old 02-05-2024, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyers98 View Post
Correct me if I am wrong but that game they won to jump right back into the top 5 was against a top 10 team. I have watched Kansas several times this year. If UD is #17/18, I have no problem with Kansas being in the top 5 or there about. We talk about land mines in our conference being small gyms and funky setups. In a lot of conferences, the land mines are good teams.
I agree. A-10 conference games can't hold a candle to the B-12. I doubt we would have the record we do if we were in a P-6 conference. and that is no knock on our guys. We are good, how good is always the question.
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Old 02-05-2024, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
I agree. A-10 conference games can't hold a candle to the B-12. I doubt we would have the record we do if we were in a P-6 conference. and that is no knock on our guys. We are good, how good is always the question.
No matter how good you are, with the parity these days and that schedule, its just not likely you are going to win every night.
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Old 02-05-2024, 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
I agree. A-10 conference games can't hold a candle to the B-12. I doubt we would have the record we do if we were in a P-6 conference. and that is no knock on our guys. We are good, how good is always the question.
This cuts both ways. We'd have a worse record, but we'd have better wins and better overall SOS.
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Old 02-05-2024, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
This cuts both ways. We'd have a worse record, but we'd have better wins and better overall SOS.
I agree, but we are in the A-10 and our wins don't compare to those in the p-6, and using our record as a comparison with records of the P6 isn't valid for the reasons you state, they have better wins and a stronger SOS. I think we are about where we belong, and am very pleased with our position in all the polls. We are ahead of where i thought we would be.
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  #84  
Old 02-05-2024, 05:20 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
UCF is 67 in the NET and the game was in Orlando. How is that a bad loss?

You also forgot to mention that Kansas destroyed a top-5 team on Saturday.
I didn't forget...in fact, I watched the game. And I didn't forget to mention that they scraped by (at home) a UC team that we handled on a neutral court, with both teams at full strength. I'm not advocating we be ranked ahead of Kansas...no way. But WVa is 144 in NET and it was even worse when they beat Kansas. They've won like 8 games. Kansas gets a lot of grace, even when they lose. Just sayin'.
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  #85  
Old 02-05-2024, 05:47 PM
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If UD was in a power conference our roster would look very different.
Too many kids just want to play in a major conference even if it is on a terrible team
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Old 02-05-2024, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by NCkevi View Post
If UD was in a power conference our roster would look very different.
Too many kids just want to play in a major conference even if it is on a terrible team
A great comment!
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  #87  
Old 02-05-2024, 06:51 PM
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Originally Posted by NCkevi View Post
If UD was in a power conference our roster would look very different.
Too many kids just want to play in a major conference even if it is on a terrible team
Doesnít appear to have worked that way for X. A whole lot of givens and guarantees tossed around with no overwhelming evidence for the conclusions. Show me you can win consistently against rosters that are much less than ours in a weaker conference and maybe Iíll begin to drink the BE koolaide.
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Old 02-05-2024, 07:02 PM
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I may be in the minority but I think we are a bit over ranked.
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  #89  
Old 02-05-2024, 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
I may be in the minority but I think we are a bit over ranked.
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We may or may not be overranked buy I believe in most cased there isn't a whole lot of difference between being ranked 14th or 30th
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  #90  
Old 02-05-2024, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
I may be in the minority but I think we are a bit over ranked.
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I understand this sentiment. It's because we're winning somewhat "ugly" against opponents that are not all that sexy. Q2 Wins aren't going to move the needle. But given where the needle already is in February, that may not be that important. We're ranked right about where we should be. Essentially all of the metrics support a Top 20 ranking for the Flyers, with some key metrics having us Top 10 - like the RPI, KPI and SOR.

Further, the continued temptation to compare this team to the 2020 team probably contributes to our sense of over ranking this team. As the days and years go by, we probably have a heightened memory of what that Team was/is. The NCAAT being cancelled probably adds to that "mystique" of that team. And that's not to take away all they were and what they could have/should have accomplished. They were a legit Final Four threat.

But not everything was easy in February for that team either.
1/29 - 4-point road win against (11-7) Duquesne
2/8 - 6 point home win vs (12-6) SLU
2/15 - 8 point road win vs (8-10) UMass
2/18 - 5 point road win vs (8-9) VCU
2/25 - 7 point road win vs (5-13) GMason

Even the last game of the year vs GW (6-12). We were trailing most of the first half and up until the 16:00 mark of 2nd half. And tied at the 14:00 minute mark.

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  #91  
Old 02-05-2024, 09:38 PM
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Being ranked is important for a number of reasons......specifically for the tournament & recruiting. Top 10 is one level. 11-20.....an move around, 21-25, don't slip up. Point is to be in there. The important thing is to stay in it until year end. The rest is just talk radio fodder.
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Old 02-05-2024, 10:56 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
I agree, but we are in the A-10 and our wins don't compare to those in the p-6, and using our record as a comparison with records of the P6 isn't valid for the reasons you state, they have better wins and a stronger SOS. I think we are about where we belong, and am very pleased with our position in all the polls. We are ahead of where i thought we would be.
I was only comparing our ranking to South Carolina's. Their SOS is not stronger than ours. I agree we are about where we belong, but the Cocks are not.
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Old 02-06-2024, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
I donít see us climbing any higher than 18th this week. Not enough losses in the 14-20 range for us to climb 5 spots. 2 or 3, sure, but not 5 IMHO.
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Whaddaya know?! The crystal ball worked!
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  #94  
Old 02-06-2024, 08:42 AM
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Let us know what that crystal ball is saying about tonight.
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Old 02-06-2024, 08:45 AM
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If itís not working too well, you may need to upgrade your crystal ball. https://www.ebay.com/itm/394663072734
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Old 02-06-2024, 09:23 AM
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Welcome to judgment week. I think the next four days will tell us whether or not we are decent to good, or could be really special. Letís go!
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Old 02-06-2024, 11:27 AM
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2-0 would be amazing

1-1 would be expected

0-2 would be a panic
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Old 02-06-2024, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
2-0 would be amazing

1-1 would be expected

0-2 would be a panic
But if we lose tonight, most will be panicking. If we're losing at halftime, most will be panicking.
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Old 02-06-2024, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
Being ranked is important for a number of reasons......specifically for the tournament & recruiting. Top 10 is one level. 11-20.....an move around, 21-25, don't slip up. Point is to be in there. The important thing is to stay in it until year end. The rest is just talk radio fodder.
How is being ranked important for the tournament? It is not a metric considered by the committee? I would concede that if you are in the top 25 you probably are getting a bid but it isn't because you are ranked.
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  #100  
Old 02-06-2024, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyers98 View Post
How is being ranked important for the tournament? It is not a metric considered by the committee? I would concede that if you are in the top 25 you probably are getting a bid but it isn't because you are ranked.
Correct, being ranked in either the AP poll or coaches poll has zero to do with being selected as an at-large team. Being highly ranked in the NET,KenPom,BPI and KPI is super important.
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