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  #1  
Old 02-13-2019, 03:02 PM
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National Debt

How are we doing at eliminating the National Debt in 8 years?

Well, the debt just went over $22 trillion.

Here are the Fiscal Year additions to the debt, going back to Obama's final term:

FY2017 - $672 Billion

FY2018 - $1.233 Trillion

FY2019 - $1.225 Trillion

Is my math off or is adding over $1T per year in a growing economy the opposite of eliminating it?
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  #2  
Old 02-13-2019, 03:36 PM
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The interview

Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
How are we doing at eliminating the National Debt in 8 years?

Well, the debt just went over $22 trillion.

Here are the Fiscal Year additions to the debt, going back to Obama's final term:

FY2017 - $672 Billion

FY2018 - $1.233 Trillion

FY2019 - $1.225 Trillion

Is my math off or is adding over $1T per year in a growing economy the opposite of eliminating it?
I recall the interview during which Trump made the absurd claim about eliminating the national debt in eight years. That's not what I recall most about the interview though. In the post-interview summary of the meeting with then candidate Trump the financial reporters commented that what surprised them the most was candidate Trump's ignorance re even the simplest financial matters that they presumed a business man would be well acquainted with.
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Old 02-23-2019, 10:38 AM
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https://www.detroitnews.com/story/op...re/2925719002/
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Old 02-25-2019, 12:12 PM
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Buffet implies don't over worry the national debt.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/...-gold-14875539
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Old 02-25-2019, 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Buffet implies don't over worry the national debt.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/...-gold-14875539
So why does the GOP make such a big deal about it with a Dem in the WH?

Typical political BS?
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Old 02-25-2019, 02:32 PM
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When the person (in this case the government NOT Trump) is able to print the very money they choose to overspend it matters NOT what the debt was, is or going to be.

However at some point in time all these IOU's will be worthless or very illiquid with cents on the dollar owed (in terms of the gov printing more money to pay for the IOU's and in turn having to generate more IOU's).

Did ya all know who holds most of the debt (in IOU's)? Most people believe it is China but it is ................... the American public.
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Old 02-25-2019, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Buffet implies don't over worry the national debt.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/...-gold-14875539
Warren Buffet is 88 years old. Of course he is not worried about the national debt.
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Old 02-25-2019, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Warren Buffet is 88 years old. Of course he is not worried about the national debt.
Exactly. I think the same thing when he says taxes are too low or raise taxes. The guy has a zillion dollars, and is near the end.
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Old 02-25-2019, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
So why does the GOP make such a big deal about it with a Dem in the WH?

Typical political BS?
You do know Buffet is a Democrat?
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Old 02-25-2019, 03:13 PM
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Debt is bad regardless of age, politics, religion, gender identity, or social status.
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Old 02-25-2019, 04:52 PM
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Speaking of the debt - What would happen if the Fed just forgave the $4.5 Trillion in US Government debt that it holds from all the quantitative easing? It is like owing money to oneself. The net effect to the balance sheet and income statement is zero after the debt forgiveness..
I am guessing economists would say that is a de-facto devaluation of the dollar but who would notice and who would be affected?
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Old 02-25-2019, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Debt is bad regardless of age, politics, religion, gender identity, or social status.
I think that is taking it a little too far. Some leveraged debt is not bad.
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:16 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I think that is taking it a little too far. Some leveraged debt is not bad.
Why?

I would never run my personal finances with that attitude. Debt free is a more efficient way to live.
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
Why?

I would never run my personal finances with that attitude. Debt free is a more efficient way to live.
Are you telling me you never had any type of investment or savings account at the same time you had a mortgage?
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Old 02-26-2019, 07:41 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I think that is taking it a little too far. Some leveraged debt is not bad.
If you can afford it, yes. And on a personal level I bet 95% of us agree. But our gov't is spending well beyond what it could ever pay back...there's no leverage in that any more than there's leverage in opening up a new credit card every month.
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Old 02-26-2019, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
If you can afford it, yes. And on a personal level I bet 95% of us agree. But our gov't is spending well beyond what it could ever pay back...there's no leverage in that any more than there's leverage in opening up a new credit card every month.
I think it comes down to what is being done with the borrowed funds. It is okay if they are used to purchase a house or some other capital expense which one could not afford to pay cash but is deemed necessary. I don't think it is okay to use it to fund a lifestyle that one's income could not afford. With government, I think it is acceptable to borrow funds for necessary capital improvements that can be paid off with future tax revenue but not okay to pay for entitlements that can't be supported by the current stream of tax revenue.
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Old 02-26-2019, 12:49 PM
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I don't know, I guess that there needs to be some sort of pain associated with this debt in order to get people's attention.

People just don't care, a lot of people probably aren't even aware of this problem.

Everybody whines when you try to cut something.

Meanwhile, we are financing China's military expansion...
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Old 02-26-2019, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Are you telling me you never had any type of investment or savings account at the same time you had a mortgage?
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I have, but that is because the government subsidizes the mortgage with a tax break, making it a no-brainer in my favor. Is there an analogous situation for the government? Can they borrow money at a low interest rate and invest that money to make more than their rate for borrowing?

I avoid non-subsidized debt like the plague.
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Old 02-26-2019, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
I have, but that is because the government subsidizes the mortgage with a tax break, making it a no-brainer in my favor. Is there an analogous situation for the government? Can they borrow money at a low interest rate and invest that money to make more than their rate for borrowing?

I avoid non-subsidized debt like the plague.
Even without the interest deduction, I don't see anything wrong with a 30 year mortgage at a 4.5% interest rate and putting funds aside in stocks at an anticipated return of 7-8 for a retirement that is 30 years in the future. the deduction just makes it that much better.
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Old 02-26-2019, 06:05 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
You do know Buffet is a Democrat?
And your point is???
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Old 07-23-2019, 10:07 AM
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Once again the new spending compromise shows increased spending, and the market goes up. Most in Congress do not care or have the guts to do anything about spending or entitlements, and right now there are no consequences to their actions.
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:29 AM
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Rand Paul simply requested a cut to offset the 9/11 victims fund and he was crucified. As if there isnt enough pork and waste to compensate to keep spending neutral.

MSM headlines were "Paul refuses to support 9/11 Victims Fund" which could not have been further from the truth. He added an amendment to the bill to force Congress to slice the same $ from the budget that the fund would add - in whatever areas Congress designated. Everybody objected to the amendment.

Few have any will to cut spending even when the IRS is taking in record taxation. The problem with spending other peoples money is you eventually run out of it.
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Old 07-23-2019, 11:53 AM
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Pork, waste...

Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Rand Paul simply requested a cut to offset the 9/11 victims fund and he was crucified. As if there isnt enough pork and waste to compensate to keep spending neutral.

MSM headlines were "Paul refuses to support 9/11 Victims Fund" which could not have been further from the truth. He added an amendment to the bill to force Congress to slice the same $ from the budget that the fund would add - in whatever areas Congress designated. Everybody objected to the amendment.

Few have any will to cut spending even when the IRS is taking in record taxation. The problem with spending other peoples money is you eventually run out of it.
For sure there is enough pork and waste to compensate for 9/11 fund spending.

Re pork and waste generally,...no doubt government wastes money and every effort should be made to reduce waste. As for pork, while infuriating when we hear about it, the truth is that spending on pork constitutes a relatively small percentage of federal spending...much less than 10%.

The big dog is entitlement spending.....practically an untouchable, at least at present. Quoting Churchill (with a little paraphrasing)..."Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing, but not until they've tried everything else first". Fixing entitlement spending could not be easier....it's just not politically palatable (yet). When things get bad enough we'll be forced to make the fixes. Hopefully soon. Leadership from the WH is critical...and the present occupant simply doesn't care.
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Old 07-23-2019, 12:00 PM
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1UI0AH
There you go UAC. Trump is trying but the leftists and their media partners are going crazy. Notice the headline of the article. They don’t mention cost savings until the middle of the article.
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Old 07-23-2019, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Once again the new spending compromise shows increased spending, and the market goes up. Most in Congress do not care or have the guts to do anything about spending or entitlements, and right now there are no consequences to their actions.
Not until the voters say “enough”. Unfortunately the voting public likes their freebies. Remember when Bush tried to privatize a portion of SS? They went crazy.
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Old 07-23-2019, 12:31 PM
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Meanwhile AARP is preaching and lobbying for more social security benefits, more medicare and more medicaid, and now, some form of college debt forgiveness. Their common saying is that government needs to do more. They, and others, never say "taxpayers". There is no government paying for things, it is us, the taxpayers. People and the media block this out of our minds.
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Old 07-23-2019, 12:40 PM
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As an aside, I heard Joe Lieberman on Fox Business a short time ago and he stated that not only is Elizabeth Warren’s proposal to forgive college loan debt a crazy idea, but it is unamerican. Imagine that, a Dem calling a Dem candidates policies unamerican. This isn’t you Dad’s Dem party.
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Old 07-23-2019, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Rand Paul simply requested a cut to offset the 9/11 victims fund and he was crucified. As if there isnt enough pork and waste to compensate to keep spending neutral.

MSM headlines were "Paul refuses to support 9/11 Victims Fund" which could not have been further from the truth. He added an amendment to the bill to force Congress to slice the same $ from the budget that the fund would add - in whatever areas Congress designated. Everybody objected to the amendment.

Few have any will to cut spending even when the IRS is taking in record taxation. The problem with spending other peoples money is you eventually run out of it.
I don't recall Rand asking for the requisite spending cuts with the Tax cut bill...
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Old 07-23-2019, 03:22 PM
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Taxation is not in shortfall. The cut brought in record taxes. We dont have a taxation problem we have a spending problem. We need to bring spending in line with taxation not the other way around.
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Old 07-23-2019, 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Taxation is not in shortfall. The cut brought in record taxes. We dont have a taxation problem we have a spending problem. We need to bring spending in line with taxation not the other way around.
And Congress needs to be held accountable somehow. When the President veto's crappy spending bills we ought to be behind him. Congress is responsible for waiting until the last second to force through massive spending that nobody has time to absorb. It's their game. The Constitution makes them responsible for our money.
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Old 07-23-2019, 08:19 PM
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I liken our situation to being in retirement from a Fortune 100 company as a former COO. Our retirement package is $5M a year. By any measure we should be able to live in a Utopia for that.

However, we've chosen to live in a $12M Malibu beach house, also own houses in Aspen, Manhattan, and Paris, own a huge yacht, and a fractional ownership in a Gulfstream G550. As it turns out we're way over-leveraged and cannot remotely pay for it all to continue to live the lifestyle.

Is the predicament we're in a money problem or a spending problem? Its spending. Whether we have a $5M/yr retirement or $50M/yr retirement, a Utopia of comfort, indulgence, and lavish excess is guaranteed by any measurement. Its a retirement based on an embarrassment of riches.

The crutch is an inability to be satisfied with one lavish attainable Utopia for another one that isn't. To fix the problem, you don't need to come out of retirement to bag groceries, you need to stop spending so much and be content with living what the $5M lifestyle can afford -- which in the opinion of anyone else remains otherworldly.

We should have a Utopia by now based on how much we collect in taxes. If it cant be bought for $3T a year, it cant be bought for $30T a year. We have an unparalleled steady income the world envies. But there's just no talking to us when we have Bugatti taste on a Ferrari budget. And that's what it is...the choice between the Ferrari we can afford or the Bugatti we cant. This is not a choice between an AMC Pacer and a Cadillac.
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Old 07-23-2019, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
I don't recall Rand asking for the requisite spending cuts with the Tax cut bill...
But is not the intent of the tax cuts to stimulate the economy? And over time revenue will actually increase? I am trying to follow your logic as to how this is analogous to the 9/11 bill.

Quite honestly- extending the victim fund for 70 more years to 2090 is overkill. Anybody within a hundred miles of ground zero will be clamoring for their slice of the pie. How much has already been paid - from both public and private funds?
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Old 07-25-2019, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
But is not the intent of the tax cuts to stimulate the economy? And over time revenue will actually increase? I am trying to follow your logic as to how this is analogous to the 9/11 bill.

Quite honestly- extending the victim fund for 70 more years to 2090 is overkill. Anybody within a hundred miles of ground zero will be clamoring for their slice of the pie. How much has already been paid - from both public and private funds?
We are currently at overemployment status and are not raking in more revenues. If employees had gotten real pay increases with the tax cuts, that might be different, but one-time bonuses will not increase the tax revenue to offset the losses from the corp tax. We had the largest deficit month on record this year.

This tax cut will not pay for itself - at all - it will add to the deficit long-term. I haven't seen any report of overseas monies being repatriated. Maybe they have, but I don't know.

Don't get me wrong, I benefited personally from the cut. I just don't think that it will work long-term.
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Old 07-25-2019, 01:26 PM
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Penny plan! Decrease spending equally across the board in every category by 1% each year until the budget is balanced.
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Old 07-25-2019, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
We are currently at overemployment status and are not raking in more revenues. If employees had gotten real pay increases with the tax cuts, that might be different, but one-time bonuses will not increase the tax revenue to offset the losses from the corp tax. We had the largest deficit month on record this year.

This tax cut will not pay for itself - at all - it will add to the deficit long-term. I haven't seen any report of overseas monies being repatriated. Maybe they have, but I don't know.

Don't get me wrong, I benefited personally from the cut. I just don't think that it will work long-term.
Why, in factual terms, will it not work long term? Define long term. You and I have more money in our pocket. We will either spend it or invest it. That helps the economy short term and long term (more than ten years). Tax money in the hands of the government helps who?
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Old 07-25-2019, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
We are currently at overemployment status and are not raking in more revenues. If employees had gotten real pay increases with the tax cuts, that might be different...
The average American worker's income is up 4% over the last year, that sounds like a real pay increase IMO. The tax cut had something to do with that.

Either more income from lower taxes or getting raises due to the good economy caused by the tax cut or likely both.

Last edited by ud2; 07-25-2019 at 01:39 PM..
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Old 07-25-2019, 01:43 PM
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Deficit

Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
We are currently at overemployment status and are not raking in more revenues. If employees had gotten real pay increases with the tax cuts, that might be different, but one-time bonuses will not increase the tax revenue to offset the losses from the corp tax. We had the largest deficit month on record this year.

This tax cut will not pay for itself - at all - it will add to the deficit long-term. I haven't seen any report of overseas monies being repatriated. Maybe they have, but I don't know.

Don't get me wrong, I benefited personally from the cut. I just don't think that it will work long-term.
Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Why, in factual terms, will it not work long term? Define long term. You and I have more money in our pocket. We will either spend it or invest it. That helps the economy short term and long term (more than ten years). Tax money in the hands of the government helps who?
IAF, it's not the corp tax cut. Total corp taxes account for only 10% of federal revenue...less in fact. Doubling the corp tax would not eliminate the deficit.

The deficit is caused by runaway entitlement spending, particularly SS and Medicare....currently untouchable. Until the rate of growth of entitlements is reduced along with an increase in the payroll tax the deficits will continue....no matter the growth rate of the economy.

PS. By the way, corporations have/are repatriating earnings held abroad.
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Old 07-25-2019, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
Penny plan! Decrease spending equally across the board in every category by 1% each year until the budget is balanced.
I know, the whole thing is nuts, I bet hardly anybody would notice a 1% cut. Even just freezing spending at current levels would be acceptable as tax revenues would eventually catch up and surpass the current level of spending. They act like we have an inexhaustible supply of money.

It is not like this is a one-time spending increase, we have been permanently overspending for forever.
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Old 07-25-2019, 02:08 PM
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Yipes!

Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I know, the whole thing is nuts, I bet hardly anybody would notice a 1% cut. Even just freezing spending at current levels would be acceptable as tax revenues would eventually catch up and surpass the current level of spending. They act like we have an inexhaustible supply of money.

It is not like this is a one-time spending increase, we have been permanently overspending for forever.
ud2, entitlement spending is on auto-pilot. You can't reduce it or do anything to it without restructuring the programs...something Congress is loath to do.

In fact, defense spending should be increased quite a bit more than DJT is doing. Sure, the numbers appear astronomical. But the fact is that defense spending measured against either total federal spending or GDP is lowest in more than a half century. Meanwhile China is bulking up, big time. And there is always Russia, Iran, NK, etc. DoD needs more of everything.

The best way to avoid war (and the cheapest) is a very strong military. Right now ours isn't close to what it was 10-20 years ago..
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Old 07-25-2019, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
ud2, entitlement spending is on auto-pilot. You can't reduce it or do anything to it without restructuring the programs...something Congress is loath to do.

In fact, defense spending should be increased quite a bit more than DJT is doing. Sure, the numbers appear astronomical. But the fact is that defense spending measured against either total federal spending or GDP is lowest in more than a half century. Meanwhile China is bulking up, big time. And there is always Russia, Iran, NK, etc. DoD needs more of everything.

The best way to avoid war (and the cheapest) is a very strong military. Right now ours isn't close to what it was 10-20 years ago..
Apparently Rand Paul's version of the Penny Plan is not an across-the-board 1% cut of every area of federal government spending. Our legislators would pick and choose which areas to cut from, which would obviously be a very thorny matter.

So, defense spending could be increased only at the expense of other spending being cut, which is currently unpalatable.

https://tennesseestar.com/2019/06/18...21-5-trillion/:

"The Pennies Plan budget provides legislators with full flexibility to make the best decisions on where to cut, setting a goal of balance and then calling on Congress to use the tools provided to make the changes in law needed to achieve that objective,” he said.
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Old 07-26-2019, 09:12 AM
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House passes budget despite most Republicans voting no. Congress now takes off the next 46 days. I thought they have already been off the entire year.
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Old 07-26-2019, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Why, in factual terms, will it not work long term? Define long term. You and I have more money in our pocket. We will either spend it or invest it. That helps the economy short term and long term (more than ten years). Tax money in the hands of the government helps who?
Increasing the debt at an increasing rate helps who?
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Old 07-26-2019, 10:05 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
The average American worker's income is up 4% over the last year, that sounds like a real pay increase IMO. The tax cut had something to do with that.

Either more income from lower taxes or getting raises due to the good economy caused by the tax cut or likely both.
Those aren't the numbers I've seen. They are up and they are at the highest increase since 2016.

The numbers I saw were 2.9% increase (2017-2018) not adjusted for inflation. 0.6% increase after adjusting for inflation. Again, the highest since 2016 for both, but it isn't enough (yet) to really increase spending.
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Old 07-26-2019, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
Those aren't the numbers I've seen. They are up and they are at the highest increase since 2016.

The numbers I saw were 2.9% increase (2017-2018) not adjusted for inflation. 0.6% increase after adjusting for inflation. Again, the highest since 2016 for both, but it isn't enough (yet) to really increase spending.
Right at 4% says the Atlanta Fed

https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage...h-tracker.aspx
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Old 07-26-2019, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
Right at 4% says the Atlanta Fed

https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage...h-tracker.aspx
My data was through fall of 2018, so it was dated, so to speak.

This is better. Inflation adjusted should put it more at 1.7%...
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Old 07-26-2019, 02:00 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
My data was through fall of 2018, so it was dated, so to speak.

This is better. Inflation adjusted should put it more at 1.7%...
That would be about 75% inflation.
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Old 08-01-2019, 01:19 PM
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Sounds like the new budget deal is a belly buster full of increased spending, little budgetary restraint. The GOP controls the WH and Senate, but yet this still happens. Sigh.
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Old 08-01-2019, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Sounds like the new budget deal is a belly buster full of increased spending, little budgetary restraint. The GOP controls the WH and Senate, but yet this still happens. Sigh.
Sadly, designed to get everyone reelected, and not much else.
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Old 08-01-2019, 06:12 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
That would be about 75% inflation.
4% - 1.7% = 2.3% inflation.
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Old 08-01-2019, 07:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Sounds like the new budget deal is a belly buster full of increased spending, little budgetary restraint. The GOP controls the WH and Senate, but yet this still happens. Sigh.
Mostly agree. But the WH and Senate dont appropriate money, the House does. The House is controlled by the Dems. Whenever either one is in charge the results are the same though so Six/Half Dozen.
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Old 08-01-2019, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
4% - 1.7% = 2.3% inflation.
That is not how the math works.

4% increase - (4% x inflation rate) = adjusted for inflation.

example:
4% - (4% x 2% inflation) = 3.92% increase adjusted for inflation
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