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02-27-2014, 12:11 AM
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Colonel
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Join Date: Nov 2001
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A10 Tournament Possibilities
With 3 games left before A10 Tourney time, things are shaking out just a little bit for the Flyers. With the St. Joe's loss, it now appears very likely that the 7 seed will belong to UD. This would be disappointing on many levels. It's tough to take a 7th place A10 team as a 4th or 5th at-large from the conference (along with the tourney winner). Plus, the prognosticators would be exactly right with Dayton this year. 7th place. Truly the middle of the pack when there's 13 teams total. Not that a slight seed improvement isn't possible. But nothing higher than #6 (maybe) without a win at SLU and some other things falling into place.
GW has only one loss less than UD and UD has the head-to-head. But they finish with GMU, JOES, and @FOR. So that's likely a 10-6 for them. VCU is 8-4 and has to play SLU and @RICH. But they also have @FOR and SBON. So 10 wins is looking likely there. UMass has @ DUQ which should allow them to pick up win #10.
The target, not just for A10 Tourney seeding but also possibly for an NCAA bid, is Richmond. They are home to VCU before coming to the Arena to finish the season. Very possible to be tied for 6th at 9-7 with them IF we can knock off UMass on Saturday. For 9-7 plus A10 Tourney damage to be the magic formula for the Flyers, I think it's imperative that Richmond is no better than 9-7. Does anyone know, if the two are tied at 9-7 with nobody else, who wins the tiebreaker for the 6th seed?
I'm not forgetting, btw, that slipping to #8 (currently SBON) or #9 (currently LAS) is possible. But SBU (6-8) finishes vs JOES and @VCU while LAS (5-8) ends @JOES. So unless we stay stuck on 7 W's (God help this board and all of us if we do) I think the #7 is pretty much ours.
Assuming the 7 seed for a moment, that means SBON and LAS will have a rematch of tonight's close tilt while Dayton faces the "best" of the group of DUQ, URI, GMU, and FOR. Of that group, 3 have 10 L's and only Rhody has 11. So the first question would be, which team would we WANT to play? I'm going with Fordham since URI beat us (and always has our number), DUQ should have beaten us, and GMU is better than the night we played them.
If we get by that game, how excited would 1) players, and 2) fans be to see the Hawks looming in the Quarters? I'm thinking fans would NOT want any part of that action. I would HOPE the players would relish the chance.
With either the 6 or 7 seed - and with SJU and VCU likely to finish in 2nd and 3rd place (or 3rd and 2nd), it would seem the path to the A10 Tourney Finals would be something like this:
RD1: George Mason
QF: St. Joe's
SF: VCU
FIN: SLU
That's a tough row to hoe. Would 9-7 plus a loss to VCU in the Semi's get it done? Or would we have to go through both SJU and VCU in such a scenario in order to be NCAA bracket worthy? I'm just glad there are still possibilities other than winning the whole A10 Tournament (at least for now).
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-27-2014, 07:48 AM
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Major General
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If we split with Richmond and both finish 9-7, I think next tiebreaker is best winning percentage against the highest finishing teams. They would win that by virtue of their win over St. Joseph's.
Personally, I would love another chance at St. Joseph's in Brooklyn (assuming we win our 7/10 game). LOVE IT. Very winnable, even considering the massacre we all just witnessed.
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02-27-2014, 09:46 AM
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Colonel
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Pods still kind of stink...
I have posted in years past about my dislike of pods. While I know for a fact our pod is not the reason we are in the state we are in, I was still surprised to find out that once again, based on RPI, we have the hardest pod in all of the A-10. Why does this seem to happen every year?
I thought this thread might be a good one to share this data instead of starting a new one.
The table below shows an average RPI for each team's 4 podmates. I didn't list out the podmates for each team as it is pulled from a spreadsheet and I simply didn't have time, but you can see them at this link:
http://www.atlantic10.com/ViewArticl...CLID=208916402
Code:
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TEAM Ave POD RPI A-10 Standing
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DAY 63.3 7
FOR 66.0 13
GM 69.3 10
VCU 73.0 4
URI 74.3 12
SJU 80.0 2
DUQ 86.8 10
UR 92.0 5
LAS 94.5 9
SBU 95.8 8
UM 106.5 3
SLU 111.0 1
GW 114.8 5
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03-02-2014, 03:52 PM
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Colonel
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Things are looking better for our Flyers as the A10 Tournament looms less than 2 weeks from now. Big thanks go out to Rhode Island and St. Joe's for their wins over Richmond and St. Bonaventure respectively. Forham almost pulled off a big win over LaSalle but I do believe that by virtue of the Bonnies losing there is now no doubt that Dayton can finish no worse than 7th (may have not even needed the Bonnie loss since we've beaten both them and LaSalle this year).
I know there's another thread talking about the possibilities of still finishing with the 4 seed. And it's nice to know we're still alive for that. I'm trying to figure out in this thread, though, what seed UD will get and who they'll likely play if they finish the year as expected. With the recent SLU slide, they could either be ripe for the picking or, more likely, ready to take out their frustrations on their next opponent. One thing that goes against the Flyers in this rematch is that SLU won't allow Dayton to run in nearly the way that UMass just did. Remember, the 1st game score was 67-59.
So, if we lose at SLU and win the finale against Richmond as most expect, that leaves us 9-7. Here are seeding questions at this point:
1. If we end up tied with Richmond and no others at 9-7 (they would need to defeat VCU this week to set that scenario up), would the Spiders get the 6 seed? Based on the post above it looks like they would.
2. If GW loses to JOE's and @FOR this week to finish 9-7 along with UD and Richmond, how would seeds 5-7 get distributed?
3. If UMass loses out this week (@ DUQ, SLU) how would seeds 5-7 get distributed among Dayton, Richmond, and the Minutemen? (This scenario is probably more likely than GW losing out)
Of course, there are other scenarios such as beating SLU on Wednesday or having 4 teams tied at 9-7. But I'm curious about the ones above since they appear the most likely (especially the one where we beat Richmond and end up in a 2-way tie with them at 9-7).
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-02-2014, 05:51 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by redbengal
So, if we lose at SLU and win the finale against Richmond as most expect, that leaves us 9-7. Here are seeding questions at this point:
1. If we end up tied with Richmond and no others at 9-7 (they would need to defeat VCU this week to set that scenario up), would the Spiders get the 6 seed? Based on the post above it looks like they would.
2. If GW loses to JOE's and @FOR this week to finish 9-7 along with UD and Richmond, how would seeds 5-7 get distributed?
3. If UMass loses out this week (@DUQ, SLU) how would seeds 5-7 get distributed among Dayton, Richmond, and the Minutemen? (This scenario is probably more likely than GW losing out)
Of course, there are other scenarios such as beating SLU on Wednesday or having 4 teams tied at 9-7. But I'm curious about the ones above since they appear the most likely (especially the one where we beat Richmond and end up in a 2-way tie with them at 9-7).
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If UD and Richmond are tied straight up, Richmond probably gets the nod over UD. Head to head is 1-1. UD would be 0-2 against Saint Louis, while Richmond is 0-1. UD is also 0-2 against Saint Joseph's while Richmond is 1-0. And then VCU, UD is 0-1, Richmond would then be 1-1. So, we don't want a 2-way tie between UD and Richmond.
Massachusetts lost to both Richmond and Dayton, so they don't help our cause, as both UD and Richmond would be 2-1, while Massachusetts would be 0-2, then we go back to head-to-head with Richmond, which doesn't bode well for us.
George Washington, though, we beat them and GW beat Richmond, and Mass beat GW. So, UD would be 3-1, Richmond 2-2, GW 1-2, Mass 1-2. Bam, we get ahead of them. If you take Mass out, UD 2-1, Rich 1-2, GW 1-1.
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03-08-2014, 10:03 PM
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Colonel
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10-6. Quite an achievement! At this hour we know the Flyers will finish with either the 5 or 6 seed. 4 seed went out the window this afternoon when GW held on to nip Fordham by 3. The 7 seed is also gone after the solid W over Richmond tonight.
So the 5 seed hangs in the balance based on the SLU @ UMass result tomorrow. A UMass win gives Dayton the 6 seed and a matchup with 11 seed Rhode Island. A SLU win gives the Flyers the 5 seed and a game against the winner of Fordham and George Mason.
Question: if you're UD, would you rather have the 6 seed and be able to focus on just one team this week? Or would you rather take the 5 and prepare for 2 possible teams, not knowing who you'll get until less than 24 hours before you play them? The big advantage there, though, is that the 12/13 winner has to play back-to-back nights while the Flyers would not.
Personally, I'd rather have the 5 seed. Not just for the advantage listed above. But also because it means there won't be 5 other teams with more W's in conference than us. Just takes one more concern off the table for the NCAA Selection Committee.
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03-08-2014, 10:05 PM
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Brigadier General
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5 seed. Rhode Island always makes me nervous no matter their record haha.
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03-08-2014, 10:09 PM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by redbengal
10-6. Quite an achievement! At this hour we know the Flyers will finish with either the 5 or 6 seed. 4 seed went out the window this afternoon when GW held on to nip Fordham by 3. The 7 seed is also gone after the solid W over Richmond tonight.
So the 5 seed hangs in the balance based on the SLU @ UMass result tomorrow. A UMass win gives Dayton the 6 seed and a matchup with 11 seed Rhode Island. A SLU win gives the Flyers the 5 seed and a game against the winner of Fordham and George Mason.
Question: if you're UD, would you rather have the 6 seed and be able to focus on just one team this week? Or would you rather take the 5 and prepare for 2 possible teams, not knowing who you'll get until less than 24 hours before you play them? The big advantage there, though, is that the 12/13 winner has to play back-to-back nights while the Flyers would not.
Personally, I'd rather have the 5 seed. Not just for the advantage listed above. But also because it means there won't be 5 other teams with more W's in conference than us. Just takes one more concern off the table for the NCAA Selection Committee.
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I would rather be the 5. You have played each team at least once this year. For the most part the teams do not change much so there wouldn't be that much more to prepare for. Also, playing one less day is a HUGE advantage come the finals is we make it there.
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03-08-2014, 10:11 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Agree completely, redbengal. Give me the 5 seed, let me play somebody who just had to play the night before (and not named Rhode Island), and I'll take my chances. Plus, my daughter is a SLU grad, so (Crews notwithstanding) I root for them whenever they're not playing our Flyers.
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03-08-2014, 11:38 PM
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Major
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Just printed off the tourney bracket from a link on spidernation.com. I agree about being 5th. We would play the winner of the last place teams--better than #10 for the 6th seed.
I think we are on a good roll again and have done well on the road, for the most part. Trying not to get hopes up too high, but I feel good about the first game at least and maybe more. We CAN beat any team in this conference, but it depends on which team shows up. The SLU win on the road has got to be the best confidence builder. Big guys better do more than they did tonight.
GO FLYERS!
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03-09-2014, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45
I would rather be the 5. You have played each team at least once this year. For the most part the teams do not change much so there wouldn't be that much more to prepare for. Also, playing one less day is a HUGE advantage come the finals if we make it there.
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Not sure what you mean. The 5 and the 6 play the same number of games.
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