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03-10-2014, 05:22 PM
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Dayton: Resume Comparisons
Last edited by UD90; 03-10-2014 at 05:25 PM..
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03-10-2014, 05:57 PM
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General of the Air Force
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I think you are right, that's why I think the 8 seed that Dancecard has is probably pretty close.
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03-10-2014, 06:14 PM
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Major
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I can't see us as a 7 seed at the moment, maybe not even if we win it all in Brooklyn, but who knows. I think we are clearly in right now, but not taking care of business Thursday could be disastrous. I really, really, REALLY think this is THE YEAR it is realistic to think we could win the whole darn thing, the only team I don't think we match up well against is VCU.
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03-10-2014, 06:37 PM
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None of these teams have a loss as bad as Southern Cal at home. That is the albatross.
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03-10-2014, 06:38 PM
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You might want to consider St Joe who absolutely destroyed us and was pummeling at home before we made a miracle comeback only to lose on our floor.
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03-10-2014, 06:53 PM
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I really don't see SJU beating us three times this year, they think they own us and will be overconfident. We'll be looking for revenge and out for blood. Think playing the opening round also give us an advantage momentum wise. Our butterflies will be gone.
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03-10-2014, 07:11 PM
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CBS is listing us as 6th in the conference. Wrong.
When you line up the resumes, it's a joke that we aren't in every projection right now. Not saying we are a lock, but we should be clearly in today.
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03-10-2014, 07:26 PM
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Despite saying I don't like our odds if losing to St. Joe, if no one outside of us made a real dent in a tournament, wouldn't it be something to have the NCAA kicked off with a very, very live game of Dayton versus whomever?
Lots of publicity, debate, and excitement might come of that.
This team has not played very tough until St. Louis. They could turn the table on St. Joe with that effort, even allowing for Jordair Jett being compromised by injury.
I root very hard for Dayton. I don't think anyone had as much heart in it as myself, when Dayton beat West Virginia. (you have no idea!)
Dayton needs to beat St. Joe, if only to play up to where they should. That opens the door for contesting the issue come NCAA.
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03-10-2014, 07:30 PM
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Major
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We are still a bubble...just win and all the RPI, Bracketology, blah blah blah
goes away as would the angst on Selection Sunday...a terrific comeback season
after being left for dead...just win
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03-10-2014, 07:38 PM
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Originally Posted by EmmetStFlyerFan
I really don't see SJU beating us three times this year.
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At this point I don't think it's St. Joe's vs Dayton as much as it's Martelli vs Miller. A UD win in game 3 would go far with respect to my opinion of Miller as a coach...not that he cares!
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I shaved my balls for this?
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03-10-2014, 07:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode
CBS is listing us as 6th in the conference. Wrong.
When you line up the resumes, it's a joke that we aren't in every projection right now. Not saying we are a lock, but we should be clearly in today.
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6th best RPI
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03-10-2014, 08:24 PM
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General of the Air Force
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We are 5th best RPI. We passed St. joes yesterday.
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03-10-2014, 08:27 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
None of these teams have a loss as bad as Southern Cal at home. That is the albatross.
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All 4 bubbles have losses north of 140. Xavier also lost to USC. You are right about the 7 seeds. I think we end up 8-10 seed as long as we take care of business on Thursday.
On the upside - NONE of these teams have as many Top 30 RPI wins as us.
UCLA is the only team in the group without a "bad" RPI 100+ Loss
Last edited by UD90; 03-10-2014 at 08:32 PM..
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03-10-2014, 09:10 PM
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I have a very bad feeling Friday is going to be a play in game between us and St Joes.
That's assuming we win vs. GMU/ Fordham on Thursday.
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03-10-2014, 09:16 PM
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i can easily spot the rose colored goggles guys and the sky is falling guys.
Bottom line: IMO, we are @ 6-8 spots from the cut line. Thursday wont effect that, unless we lose. we lose were out, and dont deserve to go. we win thursday, we are locked and playing for seeding. Thursday isnt about winning, its about not getting another bad loss. Beat GMU/ Fordham we dance
Its that simple
Dont turn checkers into chess
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03-10-2014, 09:18 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by UD90
All 4 bubbles have losses north of 140. Xavier also lost to USC. You are right about the 7 seeds. I think we end up 8-10 seed as long as we take care of business on Thursday.
On the upside - NONE of these teams have as many Top 30 RPI wins as us.
UCLA is the only team in the group without a "bad" RPI 100+ Loss
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I think your right on the 8-10 seed. People are putting way to much emphasis on the conference tourneys. They are just a small part of the overall resume. Remember the committee will already have conducted several votes before we even play a game in the conference tourney. St. joes and Dayton are both in good shape.
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03-10-2014, 09:29 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
All 4 bubbles have losses north of 140. Xavier also lost to USC. You are right about the 7 seeds. I think we end up 8-10 seed as long as we take care of business on Thursday.
On the upside - NONE of these teams have as many Top 30 RPI wins as us.
UCLA is the only team in the group without a "bad" RPI 100+ Loss
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Actually UCLA was thrashed at #212 Wash St.
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03-10-2014, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
i can easily spot the rose colored goggles guys and the sky is falling guys.
Bottom line: IMO, we are @ 6-8 spots from the cut line. Thursday wont effect that, unless we lose. we lose were out, and dont deserve to go. we win thursday, we are locked and playing for seeding. Thursday isnt about winning, its about not getting another bad loss. Beat GMU/Fordham we dance
Its that simple
Dont turn checkers into chess
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This makes perfect sense to me.
I like that we play the winner of a game the night before. The winner will have 18 hours recovery time after the game Wed. The 5th seed playing a 12/13 seed with such little recovery time is as great an advantage as you can get. But, you still gotta show up and execute. Maybe Fordham and GM can play a triple OT thriller!
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03-10-2014, 10:14 PM
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I am not thrilled about playing a team that has already been through the experience of a tournament game. I don't think fatigue is a major factor until game 3 or 4 of such a stretch.
That said, if our heads are in the game we should beat either team easily. Would prefer Fordham.
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03-10-2014, 10:24 PM
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AM said that SJU presented match up problems. I think what he meant to say is that Martelli used his players in a way that was difficult for AM to adjust to. It's on AM to figure out how to minimize Martelli's efforts to create match-up problems. There are just some games that take more coaching proweress than others. Time for AM to man up. Of course, if we don't beat the Fordham/GMU winner, it won't matter.
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03-10-2014, 10:25 PM
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Mason helps our RPI way more then Fordham. Merely stepping onto the court with Fordham hurts our RPI
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03-11-2014, 08:14 AM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer
I think what he meant to say is that Martelli used his players in a way that was difficult for AM to adjust to.
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Like not substituting them out of the game almost ever?
Miller: "What are we going to do? The same 5 guys will be in the entire game? How can I gameplan against that?"
Anyone else: "Uhm, plan for those 5 guys always being in?"
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03-11-2014, 08:36 AM
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The Flyers do not match up well with athletic big guys (Roberts, Armwood, Soko, Reddic etc).
They also do not match up well with true PFs (Evans, Kanacevic, Allen, etc).
Teams that have had success against SJU are able to get either Roberts or Kanacevic in foul trouble.
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03-11-2014, 08:41 AM
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What jumps out to me from the comparisons in the initial post of this thread is just how much better our record was on the road than almost all of these teams. I am not sure how much the committee will take that into account, but it shows that we were road warriors this season and can compete with tournament teams away from our own Arena.
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03-11-2014, 10:28 AM
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I'm glad that UD got their SOS below 60 this year, I remember complaining about that earlier this year. UD's SOS is around #55, that's the 4th best SOS they've had since the 1993-1994 season.
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03-11-2014, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3
Mason helps our RPI way more then Fordham. Merely stepping onto the court with Fordham hurts our RPI
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On a neutral court and with this many games into the season it will be a minimal negative impact with a win.
I'd guess it would go up 1-2 spots with a win and 4-5 with a loss. I'm sure Chris R could forecast it.
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03-11-2014, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75
I am not thrilled about playing a team that has already been through the experience of a tournament game.
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Just approach Brooklyn like Maui and we'll be fine
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03-11-2014, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by 1903 Flyer
Actually UCLA was thrashed at #212 Wash St.
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Wow! I was looking at 100-200. Didn't even imagine that bad of a loss. That is equal to all 3 of ours. All of our losses are against teams in the top 50% of all D1 basketball teams.
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03-11-2014, 01:49 PM
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My quick review of those showed me that there isn't much difference b/w a 7 seed and a being on the bubble. Our 3 bad losses are the major difference b/w us and New Mexico.
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