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  #1  
Old 06-30-2018, 11:46 AM
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Top 144 countdown, 2018-19 edition

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/...p-144-previews

144. Grambling State

143. Illinois
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  #2  
Old 06-30-2018, 01:20 PM
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Wonder if we will crack the top 100?
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Old 06-30-2018, 07:54 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
Wonder if we will crack the top 100?
I honestly wonder if we make the list at all...
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  #4  
Old 06-30-2018, 11:10 PM
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Seriously? With 4 returning starters and a gaggle of bench strength coming in? Not even show up on the list? egad.
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  #5  
Old 07-01-2018, 12:05 AM
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Lol you don't think we're better than Grambling? Get real.

Cunningham by himself should get us on this list. 4 returning starters total and a guy who almost certainly would've started last year had he been healthy (Mikesell). If Kostas was coming back we might even be getting some hype.
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Old 07-01-2018, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Lol you don't think we're better than Grambling? Get real.

Cunningham by himself should get us on this list. 4 returning starters total and a guy who almost certainly would've started last year had he been healthy (Mikesell). If Kostas was coming back we might even be getting some hype.
I would agree with the Grambling comparison and I agree we are better. However, just about every ranking system (RPI, BPI, Kenpom) had us outside the top 144 last year (and yes, we had Cunningham last year). In some cases we were in the 170's. So the question is, are we materially better than last year? Probably? Maybe?

Losing DD hurts. Losing the other guys maybe not so much, but we still don't really know what we have in Obi, Frankie, Matos and Cohill.

Are those unknowns enough to move us up into the top 144? I hope so, but I won't be shocked if it doesn't.
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  #7  
Old 07-01-2018, 12:36 AM
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FWIW, we were #146 in the rpi last year.

We got worse in year 2 under 3 out of our last 4 head coaches, Archie, BG, and JOB.

We went 7-20 in year 1 under OP, no where to go but up there.

We might not be on this top 144 list this year.
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  #8  
Old 07-01-2018, 09:15 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
FWIW, we were #146 in the rpi last year.

We got worse in year 2 under 3 out of our last 4 head coaches, Archie, BG, and JOB.

We went 7-20 in year 1 under OP, no where to go but up there.

We might not be on this top 144 list this year.
Remember how far off you were on Kostas being drafted? You need to polish off your crystal ball.

How much wampum or Monopoly money do you want to bet we won't be in the top 144?
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Old 07-01-2018, 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
Remember how far off you were on Kostas being drafted? You need to polish off your crystal ball.

How much wampum or Monopoly money do you want to bet we won't be in the top 144?
Did you honestly think we would be #146 and 9th place in the A10 last year, before the season started?
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Old 07-01-2018, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
FWIW, we were #146 in the rpi last year.

We got worse in year 2 under 3 out of our last 4 head coaches, Archie, BG, and JOB.

We went 7-20 in year 1 under OP, no where to go but up there.

We might not be on this top 144 list this year.
Stop with your "Fuzzy Math" UD2! Show me some dependent and independent variables ( other than a meaningless fact about a coaches second year) to support your hypothesis. I see a future in politics for you...or maybe CNN 😀
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Old 07-01-2018, 06:06 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
We got worse in year 2 under 3 out of our last 4 head coaches, Archie, BG, and JOB.
I think this is more a product of the what the previous coaches left behind
Archie and BG were left with good-decent talent

BG's 2nd season he had lost from the previous year the top 3 scorers, the top 2 re-bounders and the assist leader

AM from year 1 to 2 lost 4 of his top 6 scorers

When AM left, he had just graduated the top 3 scorers, re-bounders and assist leaders from his last team at UD leaving AG those holes to fill
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  #12  
Old 07-01-2018, 12:02 AM
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I'd be shocked to be below Grambling
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  #13  
Old 07-01-2018, 01:41 PM
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Wright State at 141
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Old 07-01-2018, 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
Wright State at 141
The Horizon League has really bottomed out in the conference rpi rankings since Butler and Valeo departed. HL #26 out of 32 leagues last year.

Used to be as high as #11 with Butler and Valpo...as high as #12 with just Valpo, without Butler.
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Old 07-01-2018, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
The Horizon League has really bottomed out in the conference rpi rankings since Butler and Valeo departed. HL #26 out of 32 leagues last year.

Used to be as high as #11 with Butler and Valpo...as high as #12 with just Valpo, without Butler.
it's one of the worst conferences in America now. They've slid down the seed line in the NCAAs

Gave Northern Kentucky an opportunity to come in and be a contender

Even if Wright State has an excellent season they're probably a 12 seed at best if they win the Horizon tourney
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Old 07-02-2018, 08:16 AM
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All your perseason data doesn't amount to a hill of beans. Williams quit on the team, Pierce never was a part of the team. Svoboda tried but the game was too fast for him. Kostas, long on potential was short on performance. I know you are not a fan of AG, to put it mildly, but he had a short roster of capable players. Thankfully the situation has been corrected.
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Old 07-02-2018, 08:19 AM
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What I don't get is Flyer fans that want to debate how bad we were or are going to be. I recognize that our team may at times not be what we want them to be but it is what it is I have no desire to make arguments to prove that we are or will be not as good as we would like them to be.
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Old 07-02-2018, 10:24 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
What I don't get is Flyer fans that want to debate how bad we were or are going to be. I recognize that our team may at times not be what we want them to be but it is what it is I have no desire to make arguments to prove that we are or will be not as good as we would like them to be.
There isn't really a way to talk about last season without talking about how bad we were at times. So are we not allowed to talk about last season? Are we only allowed to talk about the home game against VCU?

And when we talk about the upcoming season, there is room for optimism and I believe we will be one of the best 144 teams. That doesn't mean the guy assembling this list agrees with that - which is what this thread and debate is about.

And before you get all uppity about Flyer fans acknowledging our short-comings, you are the one who "got no joy" from Kostas getting invited to the combine. So while we debate whether or not we will be any good (we all want us to be good) you can continue not giving a crap if former Flyers have continued success.

That's one that I will never understand.
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Old 07-02-2018, 10:28 AM
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I have no problem with people criticizing the program or pointing out where we are bad and need to get better. It is however disappointing when after one year it is clear that there are folks on this board who, for whatever reason, dislike AG more than they love the program and therefore are, in my opinion, rooting for him to fail even though that means that the team and program fail as well.
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Old 07-02-2018, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by MNFats View Post
There isn't really a way to talk about last season without talking about how bad we were at times. So are we not allowed to talk about last season? Are we only allowed to talk about the home game against VCU?

And when we talk about the upcoming season, there is room for optimism and I believe we will be one of the best 144 teams. That doesn't mean the guy assembling this list agrees with that - which is what this thread and debate is about.

And before you get all uppity about Flyer fans acknowledging our short-comings, you are the one who "got no joy" from Kostas getting invited to the combine. So while we debate whether or not we will be any good (we all want us to be good) you can continue not giving a crap if former Flyers have continued success.

That's one that I will never understand.
We're even - I guess I don't understand you and you don't understand me.

Fair enough on the "got no joy" on Kostas being invited to the combine. I said I was "indifferent". I don't think that is quite the same as "not giving a crap" but to you I guess not. That's fair.

Uppity? It is not the acknowledging of the shortcomings, its the point after point after point to prove the negative points.

To each his own. We all get what we want out of reading and posting on this board.
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Old 07-02-2018, 01:02 PM
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Certain people who didn't like the Grant hire continue to point out all the negative stuff to belittle Grant and prove they were right that he was a bad hire. They point to the pre-season predictions (which mean basically nothing) to show that we fell short of expectations - therefore Grant is a bad coach. Therefore they were right about the hire.
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Old 07-02-2018, 01:19 PM
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I just want to be on record as a very pro-Grant guy.

But at the same time, I'm not going to pretend last year didn't happen. Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it.

What's my point? You can be disappointed in how the team did and still support AG. You can be skeptical about the upcoming season, and still support AG.
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Old 07-02-2018, 01:46 PM
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I'll just say that last year, IMO, has no relation to any issues Grant may have had at Alabama. I know people will try to draw correlations but it's simply not possible. Grant isn't the same guy he was then, the players aren't the same, the university isn't the same, etc.

Grant should be solely judged on what he does here. Was last year bad? Yes. Was it Grant
s fault? To some degree. Is he accountable for it? Yes, even though some things may have been out of his control. As much as I want my Flyers to win, I believe Grant needs to be given sufficient time to build his team, his culture, etc. I'm sure the duration of such is debatable, and that doesn't mean that he is immune from criticism, but he still must be and will be given time to correct course.

As such, I couldn't care less about pre-season rankings, pre-season tournament projections, etc. They are meaningless, and just published to generate clicks/discussion during a slow time for college basketball. I'd much rather talk about summer practices, who we are interviewing to hire for the S&C and assistant coaching positions, recruits, etc, than whether we are in some kind of top 144 something or other.

I'm not saying anyone who wants to discuss shouldn't, just that in the overall scheme of things, some writer's determination of top 144 teams doesn't amount to anything.
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Old 07-02-2018, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
You’re great at using phrases like “I think” and “hard to say” even when the performance we all witnessed is about as clear as it can get. Crosby had three years to prove himself and didn’t get it done. Period. Svoboda had oodles of playing time and was a disappointment. Period. Both left for opportunities more befitting their talent level and not because of “disharmony” with Grant. Period. And the coaching staff openly acknowledged that Kostas was NEVER going to play more than a year or two in Dayton. Period.

You can stick to your guns if you choose, but you’re firing blanks. And yes, boards like this are big on speculation. I mean, I could speculate that Josh Cunningham is going to sprout four inches over the summer and be an NBA lottery pick. But I know the difference between fiction and fact. Your brand of speculation simply ignores what most of us SAW on the court or heard from reliable sources.

Period.
We will just have to agree to disagree.

Some players have improved a lot vs. their earlier years in the program: Kavanaugh, Benson, and Oliver. Just because Crosby, Svoboda, and KA did not impress initially, does not mean that they could not have blossomed later on.

Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Certain people who didn't like the Grant hire continue to point out all the negative stuff to belittle Grant and prove they were right that he was a bad hire. They point to the pre-season predictions (which mean basically nothing) to show that we fell short of expectations - therefore Grant is a bad coach. Therefore they were right about the hire.
All 3 of the last 3 head coaches have received sharp criticism at some point.

Quoting MNFats:

Originally Posted by MNFats View Post
You can be disappointed in how the team did and still support AG. You can be skeptical about the upcoming season, and still support AG.

Last edited by ud2; 07-02-2018 at 02:43 PM..
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Old 07-03-2018, 10:33 AM
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2018 Battle 4 Atlantis participant, #137 Stanford.

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16361
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Old 07-03-2018, 06:25 PM
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I will hazard a guess of between 118 and 128 for us.
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Old 07-04-2018, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
2018 Battle 4 Atlantis participant, #137 Stanford.

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16361
Stanford is an interesting comparison. They lost about 60% of their rebounding and scoring and only return two 10 point scorers from a one-and-done NIT team. The returnees are very young plus they are enjoying 5 new Freshmen players. There is a positive vibe with a third year coach showing progress each year, and projected to be a CBI/CIT team this season.
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Old 07-04-2018, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post

Some players have improved a lot vs. their earlier years in the program: Kavanaugh, Benson, and Oliver. Just because Crosby, Svoboda, and KA did not impress initially, does not mean that they could not have blossomed later on.
Crosby did improve, but also had clearly topped out. Svoboda was a puzzle as to how several coaches, while scouting, did not either see him in action, or got desperate and took a chance. Didn't work, and then he became the casualty of a new regime that think they can do better. That course was heavily supported.
Kostas is going to get a lot better, but it wasn't going to be at Dayton. His choice. I love the one NBA scout's comment that Kostas was a few years away from being a few years away. Do forget, Kostas did not understand college in general as an ingredient to success.
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Old 07-04-2018, 11:06 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
Crosby did improve, but also had clearly topped out. Svoboda was a puzzle as to how several coaches, while scouting, did not either see him in action, or got desperate and took a chance. Didn't work, and then he became the casualty of a new regime that think they can do better. That course was heavily supported.
Kostas is going to get a lot better, but it wasn't going to be at Dayton. His choice. I love the one NBA scout's comment that Kostas was a few years away from being a few years away. Do forget, Kostas did not understand college in general as an ingredient to success.
Crosby did improve early on and then regressed...... he tried too hard and didn’t handle criticism that well. With all of the video out there rival coaches adjusted there offense and defense. Svoboda was a crap shoot by Archie......I believe he was just getting bodies. He did not fit Archie’s system or Grants with Archie being a huggie feel guy and Grant a disciplinarian.

Social media, 24 hour sports with all the talking heads, makes it hard for a these kids. They don’t realize that it is not the coaches responsibility to make them stars. Mikesell has the type of work ethic that I like.
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Old 07-07-2018, 12:34 PM
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Tulsa #130...playing them at Mohegan Sun casino.

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16378
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  #31  
Old 07-07-2018, 06:25 PM
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Tulsa

should be favored to win by the wise guys.
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  #32  
Old 07-08-2018, 02:00 PM
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VCU the first A10 team on the list at 128. Picked to finish 8th in the conference

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16381
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  #33  
Old 07-08-2018, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
VCU the first A10 team on the list at 128. Picked to finish 8th in the conference

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16381
They have not missed consecutive NCAAT's since 2005 and 2006...Rhoades will be expected to deliver this year.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...etball_seasons
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Old 07-11-2018, 08:59 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
VCU the first A10 team on the list at 128. Picked to finish 8th in the conference

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16381
.

Are there seven teams in conference better than us? I don’t think so, but if we see a couple more A-10 squads and not our own, I’m going to get worried.
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:58 AM
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Last season we were overrated preseason. Maybe this year we will be underrated preseason. I like our chances of surprising some people this season.
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  #36  
Old 07-23-2018, 08:12 PM
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I'm seeing some resume's much closer to ours. That is to say with holes, but still enough potential to get the blood flowing. We may be getting close.

IMO we lost very little next to VCU losing Tillman and Williams, who both gave us fits.
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  #37  
Old 07-25-2018, 02:20 PM
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Duquesne #105, #7 in A10.


http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16434
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Old 07-25-2018, 04:25 PM
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According to these projections the CBI and CIT are going to have a heck of a big field.
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Old 07-25-2018, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
According to these projections the CBI and CIT are going to have a heck of a big field.
Yeah, I think I counted only 8 non-CBI/CIT teams so far, so that is already 32 CBI/CIT teams. So, about every 5th team is a non-CBI/CIT team. 40/8=5.

Last year, #86 I think was the 1st NIT team. So, maybe about 4 more non-CBI/CIT teams before #86.

The CBI took 16 teams last year, and the CIT took 26, so the CBI/CIT cutoff should be around #140, not 144, instead of using the large majority of everybody above #86 as a CBI/CIT catch-all.

144-86=58

58-12-16-26=4.

Last edited by ud2; 07-25-2018 at 06:48 PM..
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  #40  
Old 07-25-2018, 07:02 PM
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But, then again, I guess I am off by 2 somewhere, so maybe the CBI/CIT cutoff should be around #142.

Top 46 taken by NCAAT, plus the auto bids of about the bottom 22 conferences, which would not get an at-large bid, is 68 teams.

Plus 32 NIT, plus 42 CBI/CIT, is 142 teams.
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Old 07-25-2018, 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Duquesne #105, #7 in A10.


http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16434
I think one failing of this exercise is ignoring the SOS of these teams. Duquesne was 16-16, but their SOS of 313 was somewhere in the neighborhood of 2x the rest of the average of the A10. I think their record of 16-16 is significantly over rated as a result. We may have been 14-17, but our SOS of 57 trumps a lot .500 teams.

Our returning 4 starters, and one being a potential first team player, plus our strong SOS, makes a strong argument that we are an NIT team, with a possible bubble NCAA.

Of course I'm biased. I'm enjoying reading the synopsis of each team.
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  #42  
Old 08-11-2018, 12:32 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
Of course I'm biased. I'm enjoying reading the synopsis of each team.
Since it sounds like you are reading each synopsis, is UMass the first NIT team in the top 144?
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Old 07-26-2018, 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Duquesne #105, #7 in A10.


http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16434

I believe the Dukes are being underestimated. They're going to compete for the top of the league sometime in the near future. If not this year, then next.
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Old 07-26-2018, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Viperstick View Post
I believe the Dukes are being underestimated. They're going to compete for the top of the league sometime in the near future. If not this year, then next.
Rothstein has DU at #10, that seems more likely, although I expect DU to improve under Dambrot eventually.

SLU #1, SJU #2...VCU again in the middle...surprising.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonRothst...42686411849728:

Atlantic 10 Offseason Power Rankings:
1. Saint Louis
2. Saint Joseph's
3. Davidson
4. Rhode Island
5. George Mason
6. St. Bonaventure
7. Dayton
8. UMass
9. VCU
10. Duquesne
11. Richmond
12. La Salle
13. George Washington
14. Fordham

Last edited by ud2; 07-26-2018 at 03:08 PM..
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  #45  
Old 07-26-2018, 04:39 PM
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Harvard came in at 104 on this 144 list. Harvard is picked to win the ivy league. Seth Towns out of Columbus Northland plays on the Harvard team. I saw Seth Towns play in a tournament in Myrtle Beach South Carolina back when Dayton was reported to be recruiting him. I thought that he was a smooth athletic guy who was a bit skinny. I never dreamed that he would be averaging 16 points per game at the division 1 level. Wow, i kind of underestimated that guy.
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  #46  
Old 07-27-2018, 11:53 AM
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I think he means CBI/CIT caliber, not all teams take those bids if offered
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Old 07-29-2018, 10:36 AM
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Thumbs down Food for thought on an off-day.

Here's a note on "CIT caliber" teams. I hope we never stoop to this--- per Wiki:

"The CIT is part-bracket, part-racket. The tournament charges a fee for teams to host home games. In 2012, it was reported as $30,000 per home game; in 2014, it was reported as $36,000 per home game; and this year, CollegeAD.com reported it was $38,500 to host a game."

Read:

"It takes $100,000 or 10,000 miles to get college basketball's fourth-best trophy, and to some schools, that's worth it".

https://www.sbnation.com/college-bas...mbia-uc-irvine

For certain schools, at appropriate times and situations, The CIT might be an advancement for the basketball program. Lord help us if we ever stoop to this level.
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  #48  
Old 07-30-2018, 10:09 AM
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Are we even going to make this list?
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  #49  
Old 07-30-2018, 10:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
Are we even going to make this list?
I wonder the same thing. On the other hand, who cares? Being high on that list, or any other pre-season list, and a buck will not even buy you a coke.
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Old 07-30-2018, 11:12 AM
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This list has us #58
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...tball-bpi-2018
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Old 07-30-2018, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Lifelong Flyer Fan View Post
This list has us #58
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...tball-bpi-2018
Has the Flyers as numero uno in the A-10, with SLU at 77, UR at 80, SJU at 88 and Dukes at 94. Maybe we should cancel the season, declare ourselves the champs and move to the Dance, then again just maybe things don't end up this way.
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Old 07-30-2018, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Lifelong Flyer Fan View Post
This list has us #58
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...tball-bpi-2018
That is an interesting list.

Some interesting rankings:

St. John's 2018-2019 bpi #27...vs rpi #92 last year

Marquette 4!?!?...58

IPFW 64...209

Utah State 71...152

Richmond 80...176

DePaul 85...186

Yale 90...183

Louisiana Tech 98...192
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Old 07-30-2018, 01:30 PM
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Interesting they are so bullish on Richmond. Not aware that they have picked up much or have much coming back, other than the big kid.
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Old 07-30-2018, 01:35 PM
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Looks like a really subjective list but good news is always welcome, regardless of the source.
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Old 07-30-2018, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Interesting they are so bullish on Richmond. Not aware that they have picked up much or have much coming back, other than the big kid.
they've got two guards back, Nick Sherod and Jacob Gilyard, that are pretty good
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  #56  
Old 07-30-2018, 07:40 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
they've got two guards back, Nick Sherod and Jacob Gilyard, that are pretty good
I see they also have a pretty good 6'9" freshman from the Harlem, named Koureissi.
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Old 07-31-2018, 09:39 AM
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Oklahoma #99...Battle 4 Atlantis participant.


http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16453:


Oklahoma had an up-and-down 2017-18 as they started the year unranked, climbed to fourth in the AP Poll and finished the year losing 9 of their last 11 games, including a first round exit in the NCAA Tournament. The Trae Young experience lasted only one year, for better or worse. Young led the team in scoring and assists and was a joy to watch play, but many believed he was the root of the Sooners’ late season problems.

Oklahoma must now transition to life without Trae Young, and that will include replacing his 27.4 points and 8.7 assists per game.
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Old 07-31-2018, 12:32 PM
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Oklahoma has a GREAT coach.... I would bet he was not at all happy with Young trying to do sooooo much by himself. My guess is that there was some kind of agreement that he would be "da man" for the one and done year.... talk about addition by subtraction....
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  #59  
Old 07-31-2018, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by TerryK_67 View Post
Oklahoma has a GREAT coach.... I would bet he was not at all happy with Young trying to do sooooo much by himself. My guess is that there was some kind of agreement that he would be "da man" for the one and done year.... talk about addition by subtraction....
Don't forget "da man" led the country in points and assists. Only 4 players in the country got to the line more last year and he made 86% of those. He is also not a bad defender (1.9 steals per game).

Yes - he took a ton of shots and forced things too often, but that team is not better last year without him.
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  #60  
Old 08-02-2018, 05:32 PM
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It's getting more and more interesting reading these resume's. We spoke of the influence of SOS that appears to not be a criteria. Also one has to wonder how these folks weigh the different Conferences in strength.

Is a 12-6 record in a one-bid conference and a 4th place finish, better than a .500 record or worse in a three-bid conference? Who knows. But more importantly what do these projectionists think? How much do they weigh last years results vs the returnees impact and potential?

According to the review, Western Kentucky at #97 loses quite a bit from a nice season of 27-11 and 3rd in Conf USA. But a gaggle of newcomers is touted to shore up only a good pair of returning guards. Then they pour cold water on the scene by predicting an NIT team of last year becomes a CBI team this coming season.

If we are in this count down it's going to be very interesting how they rationalize it. I still believe through #97 we are in there somewhere.
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Old 08-07-2018, 05:58 PM
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I think we match up pretty good with #94 UConn who is coming off a transition year. He puts them in the CIT class. Huskie nation would go bonkers if that ever happened.
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  #62  
Old 08-08-2018, 02:06 AM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
It's getting more and more interesting reading these resume's. We spoke of the influence of SOS that appears to not be a criteria. Also one has to wonder how these folks weigh the different Conferences in strength.

Is a 12-6 record in a one-bid conference and a 4th place finish, better than a .500 record or worse in a three-bid conference? Who knows. But more importantly what do these projectionists think? How much do they weigh last years results vs the returnees impact and potential?

According to the review, Western Kentucky at #97 loses quite a bit from a nice season of 27-11 and 3rd in Conf USA. But a gaggle of newcomers is touted to shore up only a good pair of returning guards. Then they pour cold water on the scene by predicting an NIT team of last year becomes a CBI team this coming season.

If we are in this count down it's going to be very interesting how they rationalize it. I still believe through #97 we are in there somewhere.
This is pure speculation on my part but I think for the "non power" conferences they put a lot of weight on what the proven returning production is along with transfers and build out from that

It's rare that a team in a league like the A10, C-USA, Mountain West, etc is going to bring a freshman that's on paper highly rated by the recruiting services or regarded enough that's gonna be some someone that easily projects to make a big impact. Kellan Grady at Davidson for instance was a four star guy outside the top 100 but I don't think any previews I saw predicted him having the kind of year he did.

If you're counting on freshman in a league like the A10 that's not a recipe for success

It's tough to project which guy is gonna make the leap like Trey Landers did and which guy is the next John Crosby especially when they don't have big recruiting pedigree behind them. It's safer to just default to what the returning production is and what you can infer off of transfers

That said I think there are instances where the name of the front of jersey makes a difference. I think we saw that last year with some of the more favorable projections Dayton had. Someone like Belmont who's been pretty consistently near the top of the OVC I think would get the benefit of doubt over say Morehead State with areas that are question marks
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Old 08-08-2018, 09:43 AM
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Our story is only marginally compelling this year. In Archie's run, it always seemed like we had several by-lines. Pollard was wing man for Jabari Parker. Sibert the deadly shooter transfer from OSU. Arch was Sean Miller's brother. No player over 6'6". You know what I mean. Some will gag, but Kostas was a story if he came back.

Anthony Grant returns to his alma mater won't move the needle.

We need to win, now, starting in Atlantis or there is no story.

I'm still intrigued with where we fit in this countdown, if at all.
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Old 08-08-2018, 11:45 PM
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Tomorrow, they name #90. I have to believe that we’ll either be named in the next 2 weeks (75-90), or we won’t be named at all.
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  #65  
Old 08-11-2018, 11:59 AM
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UMass #88, #6 A10...NIT


http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16491:


Key Returning Players:
Luwane Pipkins, Junior, Guard, 21.2 ppg

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Old 08-11-2018, 12:46 PM
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If UMass is #6 in the A10 and UD has been predicted at somewhere between 7-10, it sounds like we will be outside the top 144.
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Old 08-11-2018, 08:18 PM
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Actually the UMass synopsis gives hope. I believe they are the first team with an NIT projection. Also they may be the first team mentioned that actually had a losing record last season, and they are from the A10 and not a P5.

The above glove fits our hand as well.
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Old 08-12-2018, 02:14 AM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
Actually the UMass synopsis gives hope. I believe they are the first team with an NIT projection. Also they may be the first team mentioned that actually had a losing record last season, and they are from the A10 and not a P5.

The above glove fits our hand as well.
I would agree, but at this point it's a numbers game. There are 5 A10 teams left on this countdown. St. Louis is on there. George Mason is on there (they finished ahead of us last year and return everyone). Davidson is on there.

That leaves two spots.

I think Richmond is on there. They finished 9-9 in conference last year and return their top 4 scorers.

That leaves one spot for: Dayton, St Bonnies, Rhode Island, St. Joes. The other 3 finished top 4 last year.

I know the other three lost a lot, but if we take off our red and blue glasses and view this from the perspective of the national media, they think we lost a lot too. And we did - we lost 30+ppg.

Good news is that this is a conversation for August and come November none of this means squat. I'm excited for the season, but I'm sticking to my original assessment when they started the list...we're not on it.
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Old 08-12-2018, 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted by MNFats View Post
I would agree, but at this point it's a numbers game. There are 5 A10 teams left on this countdown. St. Louis is on there. George Mason is on there (they finished ahead of us last year and return everyone). Davidson is on there.

That leaves two spots.

I think Richmond is on there. They finished 9-9 in conference last year and return their top 4 scorers.

That leaves one spot for: Dayton, St Bonnies, Rhode Island, St. Joes. The other 3 finished top 4 last year.

I know the other three lost a lot, but if we take off our red and blue glasses and view this from the perspective of the national media, they think we lost a lot too. And we did - we lost 30+ppg.

Good news is that this is a conversation for August and come November none of this means squat. I'm excited for the season, but I'm sticking to my original assessment when they started the list...we're not on it.
Richmond only returns 3 of their top 5 scorers. Buckingham and Fore were both kicked off the team. They have 3 guys returning that averaged double figures and then nobody that averaged more than 3.7ppg. They destined for middle of the pack again.
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Old 08-12-2018, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Richmond only returns 3 of their top 5 scorers. Buckingham and Fore were both kicked off the team. They have 3 guys returning that averaged double figures and then nobody that averaged more than 3.7ppg. They destined for middle of the pack again.
Forgot about that!
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Old 08-12-2018, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by MNFats View Post
I would agree, but at this point it's a numbers game. There are 5 A10 teams left on this countdown. St. Louis is on there. George Mason is on there (they finished ahead of us last year and return everyone). Davidson is on there.

That leaves two spots.

I think Richmond is on there. They finished 9-9 in conference last year and return their top 4 scorers.

That leaves one spot for: Dayton, St Bonnies, Rhode Island, St. Joes. The other 3 finished top 4 last year.

I know the other three lost a lot, but if we take off our red and blue glasses and view this from the perspective of the national media, they think we lost a lot too. And we did - we lost 30+ppg.

Good news is that this is a conversation for August and come November none of this means squat. I'm excited for the season, but I'm sticking to my original assessment when they started the list...we're not on it.
Good analysis. It almost makes me want to look for some crow recipes. But not yet. A lot of us are bolstered by the fact that most of those -30 points not only can easily be replaced by the incoming talent, but also are actually addition by subtraction. But your point is really relevant that the press is not tuned in to our homespun logic. That alone weighs on our prospects. Still reading the resume's with interest.

A lot of Kostas detractors were feeling pretty good after the 59th pick in the NBA draft. And then what happened?

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  #72  
Old 08-18-2018, 04:24 PM
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If I had to guess I'd say it's St. Joes and Rhode Island for those last two spots
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Old 08-21-2018, 03:41 PM
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Rhode island is being picked fifth in the conference with their first year coach. Rhode island loses a lot of players off last years team.
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Old 08-21-2018, 04:42 PM
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Real possibility we draw a blank, hope not but getting more difficult to see us making the list. however whether we make it or not really is of no consequence, just win baby.
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  #75  
Old 08-21-2018, 07:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Buckleyma View Post
Rhode island is being picked fifth in the conference with their first year coach. Rhode island loses a lot of players off last years team.
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I've been pretty much in line with their analysis so far. But I don't see what Rhody had coming back fitting into this current group. I give them a lot of credit for last year, but they lost a lot. This one is a puzzler.
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Old 08-30-2018, 08:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Buckleyma View Post
Rhode island is being picked fifth in the conference with their first year coach. Rhode island loses a lot of players off last years team.
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On hindsight, we can see now that Rhode Island is being ranked below the seventh place finisher in the Big East. That is not especially a vote of confidence in Rhode Island.

Upon extrapolation this is not a vote of confidence in the Atlantic 10 conference either.

Further extrapolation, if Dayton is not on this 144 list, means that Dayton is receiving zero love from the experts or this 144 list.

Many on this board have pontificated that Dayton should be in the Big East conference?
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Old 08-30-2018, 08:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Buckleyma View Post
On hindsight, we can see now that Rhode Island is being ranked below the seventh place finisher in the Big East. That is not especially a vote of confidence in Rhode Island.

Upon extrapolation this is not a vote of confidence in the Atlantic 10 conference either.

Further extrapolation, if Dayton is not on this 144 list, means that Dayton is receiving zero love from the experts or this 144 list.

Many on this board have pontificated that Dayton should be in the Big East conference?
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You do realize that this guy’s opinion is worth about the same as yours or mine, right?
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Old 08-30-2018, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
You do realize that this guy’s opinion is worth about the same as yours or mine, right?
I beg to differ. I value your opinion much more than that guy. Those a little closer to the program have a much better feel for how the Flyers will perform. I think last year many of us thought the preseason ranking of the team was too high. I think we ended up even worse than predicted. This year I think the media experts are showing no love at all. I think many of us feel they will be proven wrong.
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  #79  
Old 08-30-2018, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Buckleyma View Post
On hindsight, we can see now that Rhode Island is being ranked below the seventh place finisher in the Big East. That is not especially a vote of confidence in Rhode Island.

Upon extrapolation this is not a vote of confidence in the Atlantic 10 conference either.

Further extrapolation, if Dayton is not on this 144 list, means that Dayton is receiving zero love from the experts or this 144 list.

Many on this board have pontificated that Dayton should be in the Big East conference?
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Team's can't have a down year? Last time I checked, we had made 4 straight NCAA tournaments before last year.
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Old 08-31-2018, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Team's can't have a down year? Last time I checked, we had made 4 straight NCAA tournaments before last year.
Yeah, but that was a 4-year aberration, as a result of hiring a wunderkind of a coach, who then left to assume his rightful place at the helm of a P5 program, so last season was the norm, not the 4 seasons that preceded it.

At least, that’s how “the experts” see it.
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Old 09-02-2018, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Yeah, but that was a 4-year aberration, as a result of hiring a wunderkind of a coach, who then left to assume his rightful place at the helm of a P5 program, so last season was the norm, not the 4 seasons that preceded it.

At least, that’s how “the experts” see it.
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Well if experts only look at the coach of a team to decide who will be good, they really are not experts.
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Old 08-21-2018, 08:03 PM
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He must be putting a premium on having Jeff Dowtin back
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Old 08-21-2018, 11:36 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
He must be putting a premium on having Jeff Dowtin back
Or it could be Jermaine Harris, 6’8” giving them inside scoring along with Cyril Langevine 6’8”.
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Old 08-22-2018, 12:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Buckleyma View Post
Or it could be Jermaine Harris, 6’8” giving them inside scoring along with Cyril Langevine 6’8”.
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Build out with a good PG, those guys and Fats Russell and Rhody should be pretty competitive
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Old 08-22-2018, 09:35 AM
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Exclamation Ok class, let's summarize what they just said.

"Jeff Dowtin is the LONE STARTER returning from last year and expected to be their BEST player.
Russell was an exciting freshman, averaging 7.0 points in just 17.9 minutes per game. Langevine started THREE games as a sophomore and will be expected take a step forward in his junior season as the Rams’ starting center.
Mike Layssard, Ryan Preston and Michael Tertsea all PLAYED MINIMALLY last year, and will need to produce in EXTENDED PLAYING TIME this season. Those three collectively averaged 2.7 pts/game.

Getting back to the NCAA Tournament isn’t likely to happen, but Rhode Island shouldn’t take too much of a step backwards this year and should compete in the A10."

-------------------------------------------------------------

Really? No, just read what they said. I don't get it. This guy must be a Rhody grad.
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Old 08-22-2018, 09:50 AM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
"Jeff Dowtin is the LONE STARTER returning from last year and expected to be their BEST player.
Russell was an exciting freshman, averaging 7.0 points in just 17.9 minutes per game. Langevine started THREE games as a sophomore and will be expected take a step forward in his junior season as the Rams’ starting center.
Mike Layssard, Ryan Preston and Michael Tertsea all PLAYED MINIMALLY last year, and will need to produce in EXTENDED PLAYING TIME this season. Those three collectively averaged 2.7 pts/game.

Getting back to the NCAA Tournament isn’t likely to happen, but Rhode Island shouldn’t take too much of a step backwards this year and should compete in the A10."

-------------------------------------------------------------

Really? No, just read what they said. I don't get it. This guy must be a Rhody grad.
All that and a new coach to boot. I don’t know if he’s a Rhody grad, but it’s pretty clear with that selection that he’s written Dayton out of his top 144. It’s all guesswork anyway and matters not a bit, save for a couple paragraphs of free publicity. I’m just fine with the Flyers using this for fodder and proving the writer wrong by their performance — not in print, but on the court.
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Old 08-22-2018, 09:53 AM
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Somebody that doesn't follow the Flyers is going to look at them and see the team that finished 14-17 last year and:

- graduated one of it's top two scorers
- lost a player to the NBA draft
- lost a transfer who had been a starter
- lost three other players even if they weren't huge contributors

- adds a sometimes-starter coming off an injury redshirt year
-adds an academic redshirt player that wasn't highly touted coming in (but we're excited to watch)
-adds a Juco that didn't get much national run
-adds a highly touted freshman

There is no way they're in this ranking if they hadn't been mentioned already.

We all believe the team will be better next year, and I think rightfully so. But I will be shocked if an outsider can look at this team, what they did last year, what they lost, and predict they'll do so much better than last year so as to climb to the top four of the conference.
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Old 08-22-2018, 11:51 AM
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I hope this listing surprises me!

Go Fly Boys err MEN
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Old 08-22-2018, 01:26 PM
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I really don't care about the preseason ranking. Post season is another story.
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Old 08-28-2018, 08:09 PM
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McKinley Wright sighting as Colorado comes in at 71 and 7th in the PAC 12. They are picked for the NIT. The bet is still out on whether he did better at Colorado than Dayton?
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:11 AM
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Sure glad "the experts" won't be playing for or coaching us.
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Old 09-04-2018, 04:48 PM
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Thank you, 62. On the contrary, SDF, my glad is quite full. However, from an outsider perspective, everything I wrote there is true. I personally think the Flyers compete for a bye in the conference tournament this year.

I was just trying to proactively prevent hurt feelings around here when the Flyers aren't ranked.

Edit to add: if UD IS in this ranking, I will be impressed with the rankers' ability to see past the superficial negatives and see the real improvements in the program in the last 17 months.

Look, to an outsider, losing XWilliams (a starter at the beginning of the year and most of his sophomore season) might seem like a negative, while we rightfully believe it's addition by subtraction.

To an outsider, losing senior Darrell Davis, virtually tied for leading scorer, might be a negative. Yet we all watched him mentally check out of games he was racking up 35 minutes in. The team even often played better down the stretch when he was on the bench.

To an outsider, losing Kostas to the draft may seem like a negative. And while his raw talent is undeniable, I'm not sure what his place would have been on this upcoming team.

An outsider might see the transfers of three bench players as a negative, while we know they contributed virtually nothing to the team on game days.

It would be awfully hard to take last year's 14-17 9th place debacle, consider the above negatives, and predict a significantly better finish this year, unless you really know the team well.

We all do, and I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb to say I think most here would agree with "compete for a bye in the conference," which will mean a finish in the 3rd-6th range. If the newcomers (Toppin, Matos, Cohill, Pollicelli, and Mikesell*) contribute more than hoped, and Crutcher, Davis, Landers, and Cunningham continue to grow, this could be a very fun year indeed.

*Putting Mikesell here because he's basically new to the staff, and really hasn't played significant minutes with any of his teammates.

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Old 09-05-2018, 02:01 AM
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Got my Athlon Sports 2018-19 Preview magazine in the mail today - Flyers are picked 8th in the conference - write-up on the Flyers mentions everybody except Obi Toppin. Zilch. He doesn't exist to them.

Good! He is truly our secret weapon this year. Early opponents will be shaking their heads and saying, "where did this guy come from?!" as he soars over and around the basket.
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Old 09-05-2018, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
To an outsider, losing senior Darrell Davis, virtually tied for leading scorer, might be a negative. Yet we all watched him mentally check out of games he was racking up 35 minutes in. The team even often played better down the stretch when he was on the bench.
While I agree with most of what you said I have to disagree with this statement. I don't think Darrell ever checked out of games, mentally or physically. He certainly did not have the best basketball IQ in the world and many times made mental errors because of this but I don't think it was ever because of effort. To say checked out makes me think of someone who gave up or willingly stopped putting in the effort. I think the best asset of Darrell Davis was his effort level which often times allowed him to overcome his physical and basketball IQ deficiencies.
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Old 09-05-2018, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
Thank you, 62. On the contrary, SDF, my glad is quite full. However, from an outsider perspective, everything I wrote there is true. I personally think the Flyers compete for a bye in the conference tournament this year.

I was just trying to proactively prevent hurt feelings around here when the Flyers aren't ranked.

Edit to add: if UD IS in this ranking, I will be impressed with the rankers' ability to see past the superficial negatives and see the real improvements in the program in the last 17 months.

Look, to an outsider, losing XWilliams (a starter at the beginning of the year and most of his sophomore season) might seem like a negative, while we rightfully believe it's addition by subtraction.

To an outsider, losing senior Darrell Davis, virtually tied for leading scorer, might be a negative. Yet we all watched him mentally check out of games he was racking up 35 minutes in. The team even often played better down the stretch when he was on the bench.

To an outsider, losing Kostas to the draft may seem like a negative. And while his raw talent is undeniable, I'm not sure what his place would have been on this upcoming team.

An outsider might see the transfers of three bench players as a negative, while we know they contributed virtually nothing to the team on game days.

It would be awfully hard to take last year's 14-17 9th place debacle, consider the above negatives, and predict a significantly better finish this year, unless you really know the team well.

We all do, and I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb to say I think most here would agree with "compete for a bye in the conference," which will mean a finish in the 3rd-6th range. If the newcomers (Toppin, Matos, Cohill, Pollicelli, and Mikesell*) contribute more than hoped, and Crutcher, Davis, Landers, and Cunningham continue to grow, this could be a very fun year indeed.

*Putting Mikesell here because he's basically new to the staff, and really hasn't played significant minutes with any of his teammates.
This is the modified assessment that I can totally relate to. And after reading the SMU review at #65, which has more holes than swiss cheese, I now understand how we are sitting ducks for third tier sports analysts who are disconnected from our patched up roster this year. SMU lost their iconic coach, recruiting has dropped off, suspensions and injuries have hit them, they were 6-12 in League play. To wit :

"Last season, SMU had their lowest win total since joining the American Athletic Conference in 2013. The Mustangs won just six conference games after winning double-digit AAC games in each of the past four seasons. Injuries to Shake Milton, Jarrey Foster and Everett Ray certainly played a role in SMU’s down year. This season, Milton is gone along with fellow starter Ben Emelogu, but the Mustangs have four players returning who started at least 14 games last season. Full seasons from Foster, Ray and Jahmal McMurray should get SMU right back in the thick of the AAC race."

Really?
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  #96  
Old 10-16-2018, 07:37 PM
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Update

Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post

From the editors--

"Last season, SMU had their lowest win total since joining the American Athletic Conference in 2013. The Mustangs won just six conference games after winning double-digit AAC games in each of the past four seasons. Injuries to Shake Milton, Jarrey Foster and Everett Ray certainly played a role in SMU’s down year. This season, Milton is gone along with fellow starter Ben Emelogu, but the Mustangs have four players returning who started at least 14 games last season.

Full seasons from Foster, Ray and Jahmal McMurray should get SMU right back in the thick of the AAC race."
Coaches pick SMU 7th in their conference. The AAC race is going to have to be really thick.
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Old 09-05-2018, 11:01 AM
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Has anyone ever looked at last year's top 144 preseason and seen how they finished the season?
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Old 09-05-2018, 02:50 PM
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St Joes is picked 63 and 4 th in the A10 in this list.
Top 3 guesses: St Louis and Davidson and ????

Already picked 4 St Joes 5 Rhode Is 6 Mass 7 Duquesne 8 VCU

Last edited by Furio; 09-05-2018 at 03:42 PM..
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Old 09-05-2018, 03:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Furio View Post
St Joes is picked 63 and 4 th in the A10 in this list.
Top 3 guesses: St Louis and Davidson and ????

Already picked 4 St Joes 5 Rhode Is 6 Mass 7 Duquesne 8 VCU
"And with the 60th and final pick in the 2018 NBA draft.......the Dallas Mavericks select ...."

Not over 'til it's over.
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Old 09-05-2018, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Furio View Post
St Joes is picked 63 and 4 th in the A10 in this list.
Top 3 guesses: St Louis and Davidson and ????

Already picked 4 St Joes 5 Rhode Is 6 Mass 7 Duquesne 8 VCU
George Mason
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