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02-24-2019, 08:56 AM
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23 - 9 enough?
Does winning the last four regular season games & one A-10 tourney game enough to get the Flyers dancing at 23 - 9? What about two A-10 tourney wins?
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02-24-2019, 09:02 AM
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I don't think 23-9 gets it. 24-9 with a tight loss in the A10 championship might sneak in. Problem is that no more quality win opportunities until the semi finals.
25-9 guarantees it!😁
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02-24-2019, 09:27 AM
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I don't think so. I think the only way in is to win the tournament. If we had a better win on our record it may be different.
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02-24-2019, 09:30 AM
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I say yes if that includes being the outright regular season A10 champs, which would also require other teams ahead of us to lose.
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02-24-2019, 09:34 AM
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Nope.
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02-24-2019, 09:41 AM
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We know that 25-9 definitely gets UD in because they are then A10 tourney champs. Would 24-10? I think it might. But they would be one of the last four in for sure. The problem remains a lack of quality wins but I heard the talking heads talking about quality losses yesterday. This team has its fair share of those. If left out at 24-10, one can look to the Tulsa and Miss. St. games as lost opportunities.
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02-24-2019, 09:50 AM
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Even though some P5 teams will get in with 10 and maybe 11 losses, I don't think we get in at 23-9. However, the Committee likes teams that are improving or peaking at tournament times. I do think we have to win out and at least go to finals of A10 tournament.
Of the remaining games, the only one that concerns me (and maybe they all should) is a possible trap game at Duquesne on March 9. I don't know why it just does.
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02-24-2019, 09:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68
Even though some P5 teams will get in with 10 and maybe 11 losses, I don't think we get in at 23-9. However, the Committee likes teams that are improving or peaking at tournament times. I do think we have to win out and at least go to finals of A10 tournament.
Of the remaining games, the only one that concerns me (and maybe they all should) is a possible trap game at Duquesne on March 9. I don't know why it just does.
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I wouldn't call this a game that concerns me because it's a trap game. I would call it a game that concerns me because they are a good team with a very good coach. They gave us everything we wanted at home a couple weeks ago.
Also, anybody not concerned about this coming Tuesday at Massachusetts hasn't watched this UD team very much over the years. UMass is a far different team at home then they are on the road. We never beat them anyways at their place or very very rarely.
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02-24-2019, 10:15 AM
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I pray that the only thing our team worries about is the next game. Anything else will cause a serious lack of respect for UMass and result in a loss.
In several ways this season is starting to feel like the 2013/14 season when we had the January from hell meltdown, and then gained momentum clear into the Regionals.
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02-24-2019, 10:24 AM
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I would say winning the conference and losing in a tight, well played championship game gets us in... rather us just not lose lol....we'll see, like we've been saying: a few games ago, when some were saying no chance at NCAA, NIT bound - get your popcorn, and sit the heck back down.. the show isnt over yet
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02-24-2019, 10:26 AM
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Seeing as we already have 9 losses, the only way we end up with nine losses is to go undefeated and end up 25-9
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02-24-2019, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by springborofan
We know that 25-9 definitely gets UD in because they are then A10 tourney champs. Would 24-10? I think it might. But they would be one of the last four in for sure. The problem remains a lack of quality wins but I heard the talking heads talking about quality losses yesterday. This team has its fair share of those. If left out at 24-10, one can look to the Tulsa and Miss. St. games as lost opportunities.
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I think the NET is going to allow so much judgement that we could see anything come out of this Selection Committee this season. Let the sniff tests begin.
I'm surprised that you listed Tulsa and Miss St as lost opportunities in lieu of two one point daggers to VCU. MSU was the first game without Matos and basically an away game.
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02-24-2019, 10:42 AM
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I would love to see 23-9 get us in, but when I think that Indiana, who has completely fallen off the edge was still "in the running" until about 2 games ago, there is no way. Way too much credit for P5 teams with losing conference records and mediocre full season records.
17-14 will get some teams in along with a losing conference record.
Sorry for being negative, but that is what I see most years.
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02-24-2019, 11:31 AM
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Indiana being on the bubble, on the other hand, shows what a weak bubble it is this year. What concerns me most is the 2-8 record Dayton has against Q1 + Q2 teams. Plus I don’t see the Committee opening up the can of worms again so soon by sending Dayton to Dayton for the First Four. Just get a Top 4 seed in the A10 and do what you’re capable of doing.
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02-24-2019, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Mr_Sweets
Does winning the last four regular season games & one A-10 tourney game enough to get the Flyers dancing at 23 - 9? What about two A-10 tourney wins?
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You can’t be 23-9. Either you win the a10 or you have to take another loss. Absent much in the way of quality wins I dont think 23-10 gets in. 24-10 might.
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02-24-2019, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by redbengal
Indiana being on the bubble, on the other hand, shows what a weak bubble it is this year. What concerns me most is the 2-8 record Dayton has against Q1 + Q2 teams. Plus I don’t see the Committee opening up the can of worms again so soon by sending Dayton to Dayton for the First Four. Just get a Top 4 seed in the A10 and do what you’re capable of doing.
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Indiana on the bubble? With a losing record in total and in conference. No way. They are not close and may not make the NIT.
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02-24-2019, 12:16 PM
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24-10 (win out and lose the A10 Final) probably does not get us in. I'd give it 10-20% chance.
A couple of different scenarios/circumstances - IF we were to beat VCU in the semis and lose a tight one to say Davidson in the final, maybe those chances increase by 5 or 10%, with a much more quality win (VCU) under our belt.
The bubble is soft, as it always is, which is why it's called the bubble.
If you compare UD's current resume to those on the bubble right now, according to Palm and Lunardi, within say 8 spots of the cut line in either direction, UD's Quad 1 wins and Quad 1 "close losses" are not what's hurting us. All of those teams have at least 1 or 2, maybe 3 or more Quad 1 wins. You can pick darn near ANY team on that list - Bama, Clemson, Butler, Florida, Furman, Belmont, Texas, Seton Hall, tOSU, GTown, Temple, Wofford.
The differentiating piece between Dayton and all of those teams is the Quad 2 wins/losses. By my count, Dayton is maybe 0-2 in Quad 2 games. Maybe 0-3 or even 0-4 if I'm missing one or two. Regardless, we have ZERO Quad 2 wins. All of those other teams have multiple Quad 2 wins, most with 3, 4 or 5 Quad 2 wins to pair up with their 2 or 3 Quad 1 wins.
Other factors that could help/hurt and sway it:
Would the committee "give credit/value" to a team that had won 9 of it's last 11, or whatever that number is? They've publicly stated in the last few years that they no longer give much or any value to the Last 10
We simply have no quality win opportunities left on the schedule until the semis. Maybe, IF SLU wins out in the regular season and we played them in the quarters they could be top 100 and provide another quad 2 win/opp. Or if St.Bonnie can sneak into the Top 135, our road win there would become a Quad 2 win.
Other teams around us, like MOST of them, would have to start tanking, like going 1-3 or 1-4 to finish their seasons and not pick up another Quad 1 or Quad 2 win along the way.
Winning the A10 regular season, which is still an extreme long shot, would not bolster our resume enough to make up for the lack of quality wins, primarily in the Quad 2 sector.
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02-24-2019, 12:26 PM
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No way. I don't even think winning six and losing in the finals is good enough at 24-10. However, the selection committee has done stranger things. Definitely a noted bubble team in this scenario though.
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02-24-2019, 12:33 PM
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Regarding IU and others, I can't see how any team that's less than .500 in their conference regardless of conference should be eligible for the tourney.
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02-24-2019, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by runnerup
Regarding IU and others, I can't see how any team that's less than .500 in their conference regardless of conference should be eligible for the tourney.
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I don't subscribe to a minimum of .500 in your conference to be eligible/considered. Every year, there are a couple of conferences that are just a gauntlet to run through. B10 this year has 6 teams in the Top 25. So does the ACC. B12 is not far off either. If you drew the line at .500, you would lose some quality teams from those conferences that deserve to be in. For example, an 8-10 or 9-11 record in those conferences could be solid, depending on how those wins/losses shook out as far as quality. Even 7-11 or 8-12 in a brutal B10 or ACC shouldn't be automatically discredited or disqualified.
As for IU, they're so far off the grid right now, even Palm and Lunardi will stop putting them in their next 10 list(s). If they win 4 in a row to get to 8-12, which would include wins over Wisconsin and Mich St., a talking head will put them back on the list, mostly because it makes for good ratings/social media attention.
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02-24-2019, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer
I think the NET is going to allow so much judgement that we could see anything come out of this Selection Committee this season. Let the sniff tests begin.
I'm surprised that you listed Tulsa and Miss St as lost opportunities in lieu of two one point daggers to VCU. MSU was the first game without Matos and basically an away game.
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For sure the VCU games hurt. The good news is we might have an opportunity to avenge those losses though. I pointed to those two games because they would both be quality Quad 2 wins. Both VCU games would be Quad 1 victories and I think we'd definitely be inside the cut off if we had won those two games. The two Quad 2 victories would make us especially bubbly right now. All speculation I suppose.
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02-24-2019, 01:47 PM
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I just think too much weight given to P5 conferences.
If I was king the selection committee would be given teams records, rip, net, kenpom and whatever else they needed except teams name and conference. If we’re all D1 then treat all the same.
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02-24-2019, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by runnerup
I just think too much weight given to P5 conferences.
If I was king the selection committee would be given teams records, rip, net, kenpom and whatever else they needed except teams name and conference. If we’re all D1 then treat all the same.
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However the quality of wins and losses are measured, it would be apparent which teams were P5.
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02-24-2019, 02:01 PM
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I’m just tired of teams getting in based solely on their conference when good teams from lesser conferences are left out.
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02-24-2019, 02:02 PM
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Some good comments from Clark K. and Seth D. on CBS pregame show today. Basically pushing for strong mid-majors over the middle of the pack P5 teams. Say they should have a rule that you need to be at least .500 in conference to be considered for a bid.
They also stated that it's the Cinderella teams that make "March Madness" memorable and exciting. Hope the NCAA realizes that. UMBC knocking out UVA; Loyola's run to the final four; UD's Elite 8 Run; George Mason; etc.
Does it generate national excitement and interest if a .500 Syracuse teams knocks out Michigan State? Or a .500 Oklahoma team knocks out North Carolina? Yawn.
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02-24-2019, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan
For sure the VCU games hurt. The good news is we might have an opportunity to avenge those losses though. I pointed to those two games because they would both be quality Quad 2 wins. Both VCU games would be Quad 1 victories and I think we'd definitely be inside the cut off if we had won those two games. The two Quad 2 victories would make us especially bubbly right now. All speculation I suppose.
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Mississippi State would be a Quad 1 win. NET #26
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02-24-2019, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by 312to937
Some good comments from Clark K. and Seth D. on CBS pregame show today. Basically pushing for strong mid-majors over the middle of the pack P5 teams. Say they should have a rule that you need to be at least .500 in conference to be considered for a bid.
They also stated that it's the Cinderella teams that make "March Madness" memorable and exciting. Hope the NCAA realizes that. UMBC knocking out UVA; Loyola's run to the final four; UD's Elite 8 Run; George Mason; etc.
Does it generate national excitement and interest if a .500 Syracuse teams knocks out Michigan State? Or a .500 Oklahoma team knocks out North Carolina? Yawn.
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Hey, I LOVE THAT part of March Madness. I'm ALWAYS rooting for the little guy and/or the underdog. But in the interest of fairness, not what's best for TV, storylines and theatrics, there are going to be some 8-10 and 8-12 ACC and B10 teams, maybe not every year, that are both worthy and arguably "better" than a 23-9 2nd place team from the MAC or a 1st place Horizon team who falters in the conference tournament. Part of the reason I wouldn't be in favor of such a hard line on .500 conference record.
But yeah, I get you and agree with the actual or perceived P5 bias. Don't give me the 18-14 or 17-15 UCLA, IU or Alabama - which I think we've seen some of in the past.
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02-24-2019, 02:50 PM
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Need to be A-10 tourney champs.
I agree that a middling Florida (at 16-11/8-6), tOSU (17-10/7-9), or TCU (18-9/6-8) are questionable for an at large bid and Indiana (13-14/4-12) is laughable, but we've had our chances and spit the bit. Tulsa, MSU, OU, and VCUx2 are all games we needed to seize (not all, but a couple of them) but didn't.
Good news is our fate is in our hands. Let's do this.
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02-24-2019, 02:52 PM
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Teamcast site
Have some fun here:
http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&...yton&year=2019
Scroll down to see Dayton's projected regular season finish and Teamcast's projected bracket.
Now go back to the top and click 'Win out'. The Flyers go from ninth team out to sixth team out going into the conference tourney. They would definitely have some momentum in that scenario.
Of course, this house of cards collapses without a win @ UMass Tuesday night . . .
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02-24-2019, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
Hey, I LOVE THAT part of March Madness. I'm ALWAYS rooting for the little guy and/or the underdog. But in the interest of fairness, not what's best for TV, storylines and theatrics, there are going to be some 8-10 and 8-12 ACC and B10 teams, maybe not every year, that are both worthy and arguably "better" than a 23-9 2nd place team from the MAC or a 1st place Horizon team who falters in the conference tournament. Part of the reason I wouldn't be in favor of such a hard line on .500 conference record.
But yeah, I get you and agree with the actual or perceived P5 bias. Don't give me the 18-14 or 17-15 UCLA, IU or Alabama - which I think we've seen some of in the past.
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Joe Lunardi spoke recently and talked about this subject. He said historically, the sub .500 Big 5 teams do worse in the tournament than the really good mid major teams.
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02-24-2019, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
Have some fun here:
http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&...yton&year=2019
Scroll down to see Dayton's projected regular season finish and Teamcast's projected bracket.
Now go back to the top and click 'Win out'. The Flyers go from ninth team out to sixth team out going into the conference tourney. They would definitely have some momentum in that scenario.
Of course, this house of cards collapses without a win @ UMass Tuesday night . . .
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That alone tells you about the value of quality wins (Quad 1&2). We would have won 4 in a row and our place in the at-large “pecking order” will have only gone up 3 spots.
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02-24-2019, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan
Joe Lunardi spoke recently and talked about this subject. He said historically, the sub .500 Big 5 teams do worse in the tournament than the really good mid major teams.
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That doesn’t surprise me. But that also doesn’t mean the committee got it either wrong or right that specific year with that team’s inclusion/exclusion argument. If a last four team in loses their first game, you can’t just arbitrarily suggest “See I told you they didn’t belong.”
The year VCU was one of the last teams in, they went to the Final Four. Same for Cuse the year they waxed us in the first round. Was the committee just way off on them, based on their tournament performance, that they should have been rated way better?
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02-24-2019, 03:44 PM
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Yes, and at Bonnies
Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer
I pray that the only thing our team worries about is the next game. Anything else will cause a serious lack of respect for UMass and result in a loss.
In several ways this season is starting to feel like the 2013/14 season when we had the January from hell meltdown, and then gained momentum clear into the Regionals.
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Yes, it is somewhat feeling that way; but that squad had much more depth and experience.
However, and I posted this in another thread follow this years win at Saint Bonnies; if you recall, the 13-14 team was getting beat pretty solid in the second half of the road bonnies game in January of 14, and made an amazing come from behind second half victory the beginning of the magical run. It was definitely a turning point for the 13-14 squad; and so to did the this years Flyers make a similar second half performance turn come back victory at Bonnies. I thought then, that this could be a good sign for the remaining season. Still a long way to go, but I think we might an interesting ending awaiting to unfold. It will be interesting and exciting to watch.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-24-2019, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
The year VCU was one of the last teams in, they went to the Final Four. Same for Cuse the year they waxed us in the first round. Was the committee just way off on them, based on their tournament performance, that they should have been rated way better?
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Or that said team underachieved during the regular season and then performed to expectation after getting the bid. In the VCU case I don't think that is true but in the Syracuse case I think it was. And I hate that the committee rewards teams because of the talent level they have and not what they actually did during the season. There are teams in every major sport who on paper are supposed to be better than how they actually performed during the regular season and are not rewarded for it, they are placed where their record puts them, which in some cases means out of the playoffs.
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02-24-2019, 04:12 PM
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It really depends on what the power conference teams on the bubble do. Clemson, Georgetown, South Carolina, etc could still potentially get some marquee wins in the regular season and conference tourney
St. Marys and San Francisco along UD are looking to avoid losses
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02-24-2019, 09:19 PM
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St Mary's was 28-5 last season with a win over Gonzaga and didn't get in. Bad non-con schedule. I guess they should have listened to Neil and beefed up their non-con schedule. They beefed it up slightly this season.
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02-24-2019, 09:20 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
St Mary's was 28-5 last season with a win over Gonzaga and didn't get in. Bad non-con schedule. I guess they should have listened to Neil and beefed up their non-con schedule. They beefed it up slightly this season.
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They tried last year but we certainly didn't help their cause.
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02-24-2019, 09:23 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
They tried last year but we certainly didn't help their cause.
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We helped them the year before.
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02-24-2019, 09:33 PM
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This year St. Mary’s played a weak schedule but they beat up on that competition so their NET is good.
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02-24-2019, 09:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
Have some fun here:
http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&...yton&year=2019
Scroll down to see Dayton's projected regular season finish and Teamcast's projected bracket.
Now go back to the top and click 'Win out'. The Flyers go from ninth team out to sixth team out going into the conference tourney. They would definitely have some momentum in that scenario.
Of course, this house of cards collapses without a win @ UMass Tuesday night . . .
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Neat toy.
I changed the MSU, Tulsa, & home VCU to wins, then had us beat Geo Mason in the quarter finals & lose to VCU in the semis. Still only got us to #3 of the first four out.
I guess 26-7 isn't good enough out of the A-10 these days.
EDIT: I just looked at Indiana and changed them to winning out, but losing in first round of the B1G tourney to Penn State. They not only get in, they are safely out of the First Four. YGBSM.
Last edited by Viperstick; 02-24-2019 at 09:52 PM..
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02-24-2019, 10:08 PM
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The fact that UD is even close to a bubble team is not what I would have thought of as a remote possibility on October 1st.
Too bad, one of those early games did not fall our way (Virginia, Oklahoma,...)
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02-24-2019, 10:13 PM
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Butler did, right? A Holy Big East victory!
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02-24-2019, 10:20 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by Viperstick
...I guess 26-7 isn't good enough out of the A-10 these days...
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25-8 in 2014-15 only got us “last team in” status. No surprise that 26-7 isn’t good enough this year, with the A-10 being down when compared to 4 years ago.
And about IU? Darned right, YGBSM.
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02-24-2019, 11:52 PM
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Colonel
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I think there is only one way in and that is with an A10 tournament championship. A10 on a down year and looking like a one bid league this year. No big name wins on the resume to pound our chest about.
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02-25-2019, 12:05 AM
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We could lose by 20 at UMass. You ever seen Dayton play at UMass? You ever seen UMass play Dayton in Amherst? Its like the Globetrotters vs the Wash Generals.
Lets just win the next game. That alone would be a major step forward.
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7 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Chris R For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-25-2019, 01:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
We could lose by 20 at UMass. You ever seen Dayton play at UMass? You ever seen UMass play Dayton in Amherst? Its like the Globetrotters vs the Wash Generals.
Lets just win the next game. That alone would be a major step forward.
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I can't decide if Amherst or Philly is a bigger house of horrors
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02-25-2019, 02:09 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
I can't decide if Amherst or Philly is a bigger house of horrors
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Philly. Remember the cheesesteaks!
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02-25-2019, 09:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Mr_Sweets
Does winning the last four regular season games & one A-10 tourney game enough to get the Flyers dancing at 23 - 9? What about two A-10 tourney wins?
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Are we still in the A10? If so, then no.
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02-25-2019, 09:42 AM
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The problem is we can't finish 23-9. We can finish 22-10, 23-10, 24-10, or 25-9 (if we win out in regular season).
Call if mental ************ if you want, but that single-digit loss column means something to me. The only way we maintain it at this point is win-out.
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02-25-2019, 10:19 AM
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1st Lieutenant
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When I mentioned Indiana just recently being taken of the "contenders" list, I wasn't implying Dayton should be in if they don't win the A10 tourney. I think this is a bad year for a UD argument just because of a lock of signature wins.
My problem with the selections is with the NCAA choosing P5 teams with losing records during years where mid majors deserve their shot. I would hope P5 teams would have some signature wins. They get 12-14 opportunities each year if you consider 7 teams in your conference to be quality win material.
Anyway, just my opinion. I also love the years the underdogs made a splash so maybe that si why I would like more mid-majors that are deserving..
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Mad Props to FORTFLYERFAN For This Totally Excellent Post:
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02-25-2019, 10:21 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
The problem is we can't finish 23-9. We can finish 22-10, 23-10, 24-10, or 25-9 (if we win out in regular season).
Call if mental ************ if you want, but that single-digit loss column means something to me. The only way we maintain it at this point is win-out.
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Yes, but once you get into double digit losses, it doens’t matter if it’s 10, 12 or 15. See IU, Seton Hall, Alabama, Clemson, Georgetown. All “gaining steam”
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02-25-2019, 10:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
You ever seen Dayton play at UMass? You ever seen UMass play Dayton in Amherst?
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Unfortunately I've seen it live way too many times. But the upside is I used to say the same thing about URI and Kingston but that has certainly changed over the last few years so maybe this is the year we start changing things in Amherst.
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02-25-2019, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
Unfortunately I've seen it live way too many times. But the upside is I used to say the same thing about URI and Kingston but that has certainly changed over the last few years so maybe this is the year we start changing things in Amherst.
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No doubt. As long as they continue to buy into playing tough defense they'll be okay. Shots fall here and there for them and they'll still make careless TO's but good team D travels well...I'd imagine we won't see a UD team look as bad on the fast-break opportunities as they did this past saturday and with good D they'll have more opportunities for run-outs for easy buckets...
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