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  #1  
Old 01-14-2021, 12:34 PM
SLUFLYER SLUFLYER is offline
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To foul? Or not to foul? That is the question

I meant to launch this the night of/morning after the Davidson game, since the game thread, and Twitter for that matter, got so many impassioned responses re: the Flyers, better yet Grant's, failure or reluctance to foul in the final possession of regulation while up 3 points.

My objective is to outline all of the considerations and variables that might go into evaluating this decision/strategy, as well as solicit feedback from others on overlooked thoughts or the pure "analytics" of the situation(s).

I also had a thought as to why our regular beat writers and media haven't asked the question to Grant directly, be it re: the specific scenario or the philosophy in general. If it's been asked, I've not seen/heard it. And if I'm Grant, why would I answer that? Why would I offer any type of indication on how I might handle that situation?

I think we've mostly come to realize that Grant prefers not to foul, given his history at UD. At least that's my opinion re: his strategy.

Me personally, I'm a supporter of fouling in these situations.

So what factors into these situations?

• There’s your gut feel of the game, in general
• How good of a 3-point shooting team is your opponent?
• How good of a rebounding team are you?
• How good of an offensive rebounding team is your opponent?
• How good of a free throw shooting team is your opponent?
• How good of a free throw shooting team are YOU? This could be both your guards/wings that might be handling the ball at next inbound or your frontcourt who might be securing a rebound of their missed free throw, be it intentional or not.
• How good are you at handling the ball and avoiding turnovers?
• What’s your player foul(s) situation?
• What’s your team foul(s) situation?
• What’s the basketball IQ, and more specifically the defensive IQ, of the players I have on the court? This may be THE most important, but overlooked, variable.
• How much time is on the clock?
• Where are they taking the ball out?
• If fouling, where and when to foul?
• If fouling, who to foul?
• While giving up a deflating three pointer would be a huge letdown and momentum swing, how would the matchups fare in overtime?
• What’s their team/player foul situation, should overtime be needed?

I'll post my thoughts/perspective, some answers in a reply with where others will presumably comment. They'll be both in general and others related to the Davidson situation.
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Old 01-14-2021, 01:07 PM
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As mentioned above, I'm supportive of fouling, preferably when the clock reaches 5 seconds or less.

Pro's for UD fouling:
We're a strong free throw shooting team ourselves.
We seem to allow/have opponents to have ridiculously successful nights from behind the arc
Our frontcourt are decent free throw shooters (although we'd not be overly comfortable walking 90 feet to have Jordy or Sissoko shoot two freebies, or forbid a 1-and-1).

Con's for UD fouling:
We are a deplorable rebounding team
We are horrendous at taking care of the basketball
I'm not sure our overall basketball or defensive IQ is very high (we have several freshmen in the rotation)

If you're going execute fouling while up three, I think it can be done very effectively and consistently when you have high IQ players/defenders on the floor. It requires a very "aware" player to know when and where to foul. And to also eliminate the risk of fouling a three-pointer shooter in the act of shooting, heaven forbid the shooter makes it for a 4-point opportunity.

The Davidson situation:

UD was in such a strong position with a foul still to give. There was what on the clock? maybe 15 seconds. They had to go the length of the court. Grady had been on fire and it was obvious who was going to be getting the ball for Davidson.

Options/considerations:

Could we have applied full court pressure, maybe execute a trap, and burn 6 or 7 seconds in the backcourt and then commit the foul to give? Davidson would be down to ~8 seconds and not across half court yet? Risk - someone breaks free for a wide open look since we've extended the defense.

Could we have done a better job of denying Grady getting a touch?

I think we had our best defender, let me rephrase, our highest IQ defender, in Crutcher guarding Grady. He got screened off the ball and Zimi picked him up. Zimi did a pretty decent job, but got himself slightly out of solid defending position (which he does often on the perimeter. He gets caught too vertical) when Grady took a dribble or two inside the arc. A high(er) IQ player/defender would have fouled Grady at that moment. AT WORST, you're fouling a two point shooter, if somehow Grady can get a shot off, and they're either taking it out of bounds with ~5 seconds left or shooting free throws. If the philosophy was NOT to foul, a high(er) IQ player/defender simply overextends on the three point line when Grady dribbles inside the arc, inviting him to drive for an uncontested layup.

And I'm not picking on Zimi. He's a freshman and would have been put in a position/situation that can only come thru experience.

Having a group/collection of high IQ players/defenders that are disciplined gives a coach A LOT of latitude if he/she wants to execute fouling when up three points. 1) you can be comfortable switching everything 2) you can all but eliminate the risk of fouling a player in the act of shooting 3) you can let the player decide when is the most/best opportunity to foul as the situation unfolds.

It looks so easy from couch and the sidelines while you're watching/coaching. If only Coach Grant had an electronic buzzer he could press exactly when he wants someone to foul?
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Old 01-14-2021, 01:56 PM
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In the Davidson game, at least one foul should've been committed to shorten the clock because there was one to give. I don't think there's one reason not to commit that foul.

But, if the foul you commit is going to send them to the line, that's where the debate starts.

I just want throw in there a couple things to take into consideration for not fouling.

1. You are guaranteed not to lose in regulation, where fouling, while increasing your chances of winning in regulation, also increases your opponents ability for a miracle win in regulation.

2. Throw out 3 point shooting stats, or at least adjust them downward. Players/teams build there 3 point shooting stats by finding good ones to take during the flow of the game, they usually aren't planned. So, because they are looking for the most opportune openings to take a 3, that helps their percentage. It's also more likely to find that opening because the opposing defense has to cover both the inside and the outside. But when a team is down by 3 with one decent possession left, they now can't wait for the most opportune opening and more importantly, their opponent doesn't have to worry about guarding inside the arc.

Last edited by Smitty10; 01-14-2021 at 02:11 PM..
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Old 01-14-2021, 02:15 PM
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I want to key on this so I took it out of my previous post to put here.

But, I've come up with a way that sways me to what my decision would be in other situations. I ask myself, if I was the opponent, what would I prefer we do? And then do the opposite. And if the Flyers were down by 3 and inbounding the ball with 15 seconds on the clock, I would prefer the game game came down to one 3 point opportunity rather than having to go to foul line, make one, and miss the next, hope for rebound/put back or counting on my player to hit two more FTs.

So now, I believe 99 percent of people(including coaches) will answer the way I think they would. If your team is down by 3, with 15 seconds on the clock, and had possession. Would you rather you get a chance to shoot a 3 for the tie, or would you rather you had a chance to go to the free throw line to make the first, miss the 2nd, get rebound and either tie or win the game with your put back shot? I think the answer is obvious and that should make fouling the opponent when up by 3 the obvious answer.

So, now that I think about it, I've changed my mind. I was for always letting the game play out. But now I'm for fouling.

Last edited by Smitty10; 01-14-2021 at 02:18 PM..
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Old 01-14-2021, 02:18 PM
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With a foul to give you should give it. If a foul puts them at the line it probably should only be done out of a timeout/us shooting a free throw so you have your best team for that situation on the floor and have a chance to discuss it.

But shame on any D1 coach who does not practice all of these situations on a regular basis. I last coached high school basketball in 2009-2010 and we practiced those situations often.
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Old 01-14-2021, 02:23 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
With a foul to give you should give it. If a foul puts them at the line it probably should only be done out of a timeout/us shooting a free throw so you have your best team for that situation on the floor and have a chance to discuss it.

But shame on any D1 coach who does not practice all of these situations on a regular basis. I last coached high school basketball in 2009-2010 and we practiced those situations often.
Okay, since you were a coach. Can you look at my last post and tell me, if situation was reversed and you were the team needing to tie the game with three, is there any situation you would rather do it by going to the FT line, making first, missing 2nd and hoping for rebound vs getting a three point shot off? Keeping in mind, that if you shoot the 3 early enough, there's a better chance for an offensive rebound and a 2nd chance then there is a rebound at the FT line.

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Old 01-14-2021, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Okay, since you were a coach. Can you look at my last post and tell me, if situation was reversed and you were the team needing to tie the game with three, is there any situation you would rather do it by going to the FT line, making first, missing 2nd and hoping for rebound vs getting a three point shot off? Keeping in mind, that if you shoot the 3 early enough, there's a better chance for an offensive rebound and a 2nd chance then there is a rebound at the FT line.
I always opted to foul and put them on the line. And of all the games I either coached or scouted at the high school level, I've seen the hit the first and miss the second, get the rebound and score happen exactly once.

I will couch this a little by saying that if it was a live ball situation we didn't usually foul, we only did it off of a timeout or us on the free throw line. Because even though we did practice it often we didn't like the thought of something going wrong if we didn't have a chance to discuss it first.
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Old 01-14-2021, 02:40 PM
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Foul...I want the win or loss to be in the hands of our players, not SMU or the myriad of others who have hurt us with last-minute shots.
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Old 01-14-2021, 02:41 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
The Davidson situation:

UD was in such a strong position with a foul still to give. There was what on the clock? maybe 15 seconds. They had to go the length of the court. Grady had been on fire and it was obvious who was going to be getting the ball for Davidson.
The only thing I thought we should have done differently, was find a way to foul them in a non-shooting way, to use up the "foul to give". If you watch the replay, with 7 seconds left, Grady tries to take it to the hole around Zimi, and Zimi acts like a Bull Fighter, and goes "Ole!". If Zimi had bumped him hard on that drive (or Crutcher got back and reached for the ball), that would be the foul to give, and the question would be did Grady take a shot after the bump to be considered shooting or not, but he would be inside the 3pt line. If it wasn't a shooting foul, then Davidson has just about 7 seconds to get the ball inbounds and get a shot off. (Most likely by Grady again.)
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Old 01-14-2021, 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Okay, since you were a coach. Can you look at my last post and tell me, if situation was reversed and you were the team needing to tie the game with three, is there any situation you would rather do it by going to the FT line, making first, missing 2nd and hoping for rebound vs getting a three point shot off? Keeping in mind, that if you shoot the 3 early enough, there's a better chance for an offensive rebound and a 2nd chance then there is a rebound at the FT line.

What a great way to frame it. No coach ever says in the post game presser "we got really lucky they fouled us! Our players all agreed that we GET TO make a FT, miss a FT, get the rebound, and put that shot in! Praise Jesus!"


No way. Every coach says "all we ask for is a relatively clean look." That's what every team wants, even if it's from 26 feet, even if the defender is up on the guy a little bit.
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Old 01-14-2021, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post
What a great way to frame it. No coach ever says in the post game presser "we got really lucky they fouled us! Our players all agreed that we GET TO make a FT, miss a FT, get the rebound, and put that shot in! Praise Jesus!"


No way. Every coach says "all we ask for is a relatively clean look." That's what every team wants, even if it's from 26 feet, even if the defender is up on the guy a little bit.
For awhile now, I've felt that these "tough choices" to make that every sport has, are easy to figure out if you just put yourself in your opponents shoes and ask "what would they want me to do?" and then do the opposite.

Football has more of those than any other sport I can think of. For instance, to me maybe the equal decision in football would be down by 3 at the opponent's 1 or 2 yard line, goal to go, on 4th down with no time for another possession. Do you kick the 3 to tie the game, or go for the win. I think in most situations, the opposing coach would rather you go for the three because 1. they have a chance to still beat you in OT and 2. You might miss the 3. But I'll bet just about every time the situation arises, they kick the tying FG.
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Old 01-14-2021, 04:15 PM
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We had a foul to give. It was a no brained. Grant blew it- again.
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Old 01-14-2021, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07 View Post
We had a foul to give. It was a no brained. Grant blew it- again.
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Insightful, as always.

I'm not suggesting CAG is beyond reproach and never makes a mistake. He's not. But he's not nearly as incompetent or brainless as you suggest either.

For my alumni dollars, I'll go with the reigning National Coach of the Year (NCOY) over the since resurrected (MOY) Malcontent of the Year.
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Old 01-14-2021, 04:55 PM
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SLUFLYER - maybe I missed it in this thread but I thought you mentioned it in the other thread and someone brought this up on Twitter the night of the game. With 15s left and depending on where you foul, the opponent has an inbounds play which sometimes is easier to get an open 3 than in the play from the start. Then what? Do you foul again which is an easier situation to commit a foul and have the opponent make the 3 too and set up a possible 4 point play or if he doesn't make the 3, he goes to to the line to make 1/2 and miss the last.

I think all this is easy when watching from the stands or on TV but gets a little harder when trying to execute on the floor. Timing is critical. So thinking about the freshman, lack of rebounding (missed free throw situation), I'm okay with the decision made to not foul. The D was good and Grady made a heck of a contested shot. Plus we still won.
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Old 01-14-2021, 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
SLUFLYER - maybe I missed it in this thread but I thought you mentioned it in the other thread and someone brought this up on Twitter the night of the game. With 15s left and depending on where you foul, the opponent has an inbounds play which sometimes is easier to get an open 3 than in the play from the start. Then what? Do you foul again which is an easier situation to commit a foul and have the opponent make the 3 too and set up a possible 4 point play or if he doesn't make the 3, he goes to to the line to make 1/2 and miss the last.

I think all this is easy when watching from the stands or on TV but gets a little harder when trying to execute on the floor. Timing is critical. So thinking about the freshman, lack of rebounding (missed free throw situation), I'm okay with the decision made to not foul. The D was good and Grady made a heck of a contested shot. Plus we still won.
I'm not suggesting we should have fouled under any and all circumstances. Ideally, it would have been great if we could have used our 6th foul around the 6 or 7 second mark (or less). But then, they're probably setting up there out of bounds play from mid-court or the sideline, maybe from underneath but unlikely. Those plays are easier designed than something full court, which you have to rely heavily on one of your guys "making a play" to create a clean look at a three.

Looking at how poorly of a rebounding team we are, and that we may have several young/freshmen on the floor in late game situations like this, I can see why Grant may subscribe to the "not fouling" strategy. It seems he's always subscribed to that, at least at UD, regardless of personnel, but I cannot confirm that.

As noted in one of my previous posts above, it appears so easy at home on my couch when and where to foul. But even the best strategy requires execution. And when it was all settled, we had a freshman defending (via switch) a red hot upper classman, and that's A LOT to put on a freshman re: executing a well-timed/well-placed "foul to give". There's just so much awareness involved that can only come with experience. And even then, not all players can be that cerebral in the heat of the action.
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Old 01-14-2021, 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
I want to key on this so I took it out of my previous post to put here.

But, I've come up with a way that sways me to what my decision would be in other situations. I ask myself, if I was the opponent, what would I prefer we do? And then do the opposite. And if the Flyers were down by 3 and inbounding the ball with 15 seconds on the clock, I would prefer the game game came down to one 3 point opportunity rather than having to go to foul line, make one, and miss the next, hope for rebound/put back or counting on my player to hit two more FTs.

So now, I believe 99 percent of people(including coaches) will answer the way I think they would. If your team is down by 3, with 15 seconds on the clock, and had possession. Would you rather you get a chance to shoot a 3 for the tie, or would you rather you had a chance to go to the free throw line to make the first, miss the 2nd, get rebound and either tie or win the game with your put back shot? I think the answer is obvious and that should make fouling the opponent when up by 3 the obvious answer.

So, now that I think about it, I've changed my mind. I was for always letting the game play out. But now I'm for fouling.
why are we saying 15 seconds on the clock?

I could swear as I was listening to it live,
Brooks Hall was shocked, and with a soft
laugh said something like "12 seconds to
go, up 3 with a foul to give.. we foul with 6
seconds or less and shorten the clock"..

there literally is no rationale at all for this..
He thought perhaps a player froze up and
just got a deer caught in headlights thing..
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Old 01-14-2021, 07:52 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Insightful, as always.

I'm not suggesting CAG is beyond reproach and never makes a mistake. He's not. But he's not nearly as incompetent or brainless as you suggest either.

For my alumni dollars, I'll go with the reigning National Coach of the Year (NCOY) over the since resurrected (MOY) Malcontent of the Year.
I will side with Coach Grant 99 percent of the
time... please cite where anyone is suggesting
he is brainless or incompetent.. I could of
missed it...

go Flyers!
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  #18  
Old 01-14-2021, 08:32 PM
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Originally Posted by steverino015 View Post
why are we saying 15 seconds on the clock?

I could swear as I was listening to it live,
Brooks Hall was shocked, and with a soft
laugh said something like "12 seconds to
go, up 3 with a foul to give.. we foul with 6
seconds or less and shorten the clock"..

there literally is no rationale at all for this..
He thought perhaps a player froze up and
just got a deer caught in headlights thing..
I was picking a number out of thin air as to the start of the possession. You know? about the time when coach calls timeout and realizes this could be your final possession. Yes, you wait to foul the team until a later point in time, but 15 seconds seems like a good time to tell your team what you want them to do.
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Old 01-14-2021, 09:07 PM
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With a foul to give - I spend that baby like my wife does $$$ on a new pair of shoes......every time.
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  #20  
Old 01-15-2021, 08:33 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Insightful, as always.

I'm not suggesting CAG is beyond reproach and never makes a mistake. He's not. But he's not nearly as incompetent or brainless as you suggest either.

For my alumni dollars, I'll go with the reigning National Coach of the Year (NCOY) over the since resurrected (MOY) Malcontent of the Year.
You’re talking about the same coach who lost to Fordham-FORDHAM!!! AND Lasalle.
Perhaps you also missed his end game magic against SMU. He is not a good floor coach.

I’m not saying we should dump him-but he should recognize his flaws and TRY TO IMPROVE. He didn’t do that at Davidson. Instead he almost squandered a fine effort .....,,.and he could have blown our CBI chances!!!!!
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Old 01-15-2021, 08:42 AM
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We had a foul to give so the make one, miss one, rebound and score doesn't even come into play.

Even if we were talking about that scenario, when they moved the players up one spot on the free throw lane years ago they did a study. It was a long time ago so I obviously don't remember the exact stats, but prior to the move the first slot team got rebounds at something like a 65% clip, then when they moved them up a slot that team now got rebounds at something like a 90% clip so it's not all that easy to miss on purpose and your team get the rebound and score.
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Old 01-15-2021, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted by steverino015 View Post
I will side with Coach Grant 99 percent of the
time... please cite where anyone is suggesting
he is brainless or incompetent.. I could of
missed it...

go Flyers!
My guess is that you don't see maddog07's posts. Found a way to keep him on block or ignore. Please share with the rest of us.
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Old 01-15-2021, 12:45 PM
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You know this got me thinking. The one flaw that basketball has is that something that should be a penalty, a punishment sort of, is used backwards as an advantage. I'm talking about fouling. When fouling helps you win it seems totally against the grain. And the reverse of that is when you don't foul much in the 2nd half, and you're losing, you also get punished because you can't send them to the line when you want to.

So what I'm getting at is, the Elam Ending would alleviate this flaw in the game. Of course, over/under calculations would have to be adjusted but I could live with that.
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Old 01-15-2021, 05:26 PM
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How can any of us make a decision as to "foul or not to foul" without seeing what the statistics show. Show me the statistics. I have seen games where the team, ahead by three, fouls and ends up losing the game. Show me the stats!
To me it's like bringing in your premier closer up one in the ninth inning, let's say Mariano Rivera. Does that closer fail? Sometimes, but the stats say bring him into the game.
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Old 01-15-2021, 07:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
You know this got me thinking. The one flaw that basketball has is that something that should be a penalty, a punishment sort of, is used backwards as an advantage. I'm talking about fouling. When fouling helps you win it seems totally against the grain. And the reverse of that is when you don't foul much in the 2nd half, and you're losing, you also get punished because you can't send them to the line when you want to.

So what I'm getting at is, the Elam Ending would alleviate this flaw in the game. Of course, over/under calculations would have to be adjusted but I could live with that.
It's a good point. The opposite is the "Hack a Shaq" strategy, with the argument that exploiting a poor free throw shooter is not the failure of the team fouling, but of the player who cannot reliably make FT's. Some might call think the coach is a good "floor coach" by doing it. But that's the debate in the other thread.
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Old 01-15-2021, 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
It's a good point. The opposite is the "Hack a Shaq" strategy, with the argument that exploiting a poor free throw shooter is not the failure of the team fouling, but of the player who cannot reliably make FT's. Some might call think the coach is a good "floor coach" by doing it. But that's the debate in the other thread.
I don't have a problem with that because what makes it an advantage is the failure of the opponent, and there's a limit on how often it can take place due to the foul out rule. Also, if done right, it's not 100 percent intentional because it's mainly a defender getting much more aggressive on defense hoping to keep the FG from happening and hoping not to get called. And of course, the more you foul the guy that can't shoot FTs the faster you get to 1 and 1 and bonus where guys that can shoot FTs can take advantage, so there are a few penalties for that strategy.

Last edited by Smitty10; 01-15-2021 at 08:00 PM..
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