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03-13-2016, 10:28 PM
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Captain
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Dayton +1 vs Syracuse
We open as a 1 point dog to Cuse.
According to the boys in the desert we are the favorite only by the seed line. Not really surprised by this, it's basically a pick em' game. Both teams playing inconsistently down the stretch, so who will show up? I'd like to think we will have more fans in the crowd and Archie will have the boys ready to roll. The extra rest should hopefully help KP
Last edited by 224; 03-13-2016 at 10:30 PM..
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03-14-2016, 06:41 AM
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Major General
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LOL...
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03-14-2016, 07:28 AM
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Captain
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Remember, Vegas lines are based on public perception. The perfect Vegas line is one that splits the bets up 50-50 on each side.
Syracuse is a big brand, that will tilt the line towards them in order to try to get folks to bet Dayton.
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03-14-2016, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by 224
We open as a 1 point dog to Cuse.
According to the boys in the desert we are the favorite only by the seed line. Not really surprised by this, it's basically a pick em' game. Both teams playing inconsistently down the stretch, so who will show up? I'd like to think we will have more fans in the crowd and Archie will have the boys ready to roll. The extra rest should hopefully help KP
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Perfect. We have demonstrated that we're pretty good at upsets. Orange is 1-5 in their last six.
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03-14-2016, 09:14 AM
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Major General
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Syracuse had lost 5 of 7 coming into the tournament in 2014. This is a good omen.
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03-14-2016, 09:42 AM
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Lieutenant General
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Couple of those losses were to Louisville and NC. We weren't exactly a house of fire coming down the stretch. Should be a very tough matchup.
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03-14-2016, 09:49 AM
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Major General
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They also lost to Florida State and Pitt twice. Their last 2 wins are Boston College and NC State, two of the worst teams in the ACC. At least we beat VCU recently, who made the field.
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03-14-2016, 10:27 AM
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General
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The Flyers as a 7 and Syracuse as a 10 proves that the committee didn't use that one category this season that they did last, "The Eye Test".
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03-14-2016, 11:29 AM
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Colonel
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On the Dan Patrick Show Coach Boeheim said Dayton was favored and Dayton is a tough team. Dan proceeded to wish him well against the Flyers. Boeheim has been trying to get Dan to attend some Syracuse gala and Dan stated that he would attend if they beat his Flyers. Later Dan said he hopes his Flyers beat the 'Cuse.
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03-14-2016, 07:56 PM
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Commander in Chief
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Lunardi
Lunardi predicts a loss for Dayton against Syracuse. He says Dayton was playing well in the OCC schedule but has fallen down in conference play. He says Dayton does not play well against a zone, Dayton's outside shooting is poor. He also says Syracuse will be looking for revenge.
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03-14-2016, 08:09 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by Mich Flyer
Lunardi predicts a loss for Dayton against Syracuse. He says Dayton was playing well in the OCC schedule but has fallen down in conference play. He says Dayton does not play well against a zone, Dayton's outside shooting is poor. He also says Syracuse will be looking for revenge.
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All good points, I must admit. Still, if we match Syracuse's intensity and determination, defend the 3 on D and attack the hoop on O, we should win by at least a couple of buckets. But if we let them have open shots, and we settle for 3s ourselves, we could have a long afternoon.
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03-14-2016, 08:13 PM
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Major
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Originally Posted by Mich Flyer
Lunardi predicts a loss for Dayton against Syracuse. He says Dayton was playing well in the OCC schedule but has fallen down in conference play. He says Dayton does not play well against a zone, Dayton's outside shooting is poor. He also says Syracuse will be looking for revenge.
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All true Michigan but if you have seen Cuse play, very good OR very bad
Stop their 3, rebound and push it at every opportunity
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03-14-2016, 08:55 PM
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Lieutenant General
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Originally Posted by Mich Flyer
Lunardi predicts a loss for Dayton against Syracuse. He says Dayton was playing well in the OCC schedule but has fallen down in conference play. He says Dayton does not play well against a zone, Dayton's outside shooting is poor. He also says Syracuse will be looking for revenge.
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I agree on most points and the zone certainly scares me. That's why I think we need to win with defense. We need a grinder type game, probably low scoring, with many of our points coming directly from our defense. We need to take advantage of transition points whenever we can.
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03-14-2016, 09:23 PM
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Commander in Chief
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Beat Syracuse
Agree with CT Flyer, Donniex3Era, and T-Bone 84 that we need to defend the 3. Syracuse has some good three point shooters. We have not been so good defending against the three. If our defense is very good, we will get those transition baskets.
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03-15-2016, 09:04 AM
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Brigadier General
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Money going on Dayton. Dayton now -1. This aint you Father's Orange. The Sharps bets won't really start coming in until Friday morning so it will be interesting to see how the line moves then.
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03-15-2016, 09:26 AM
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1st Lieutenant
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Why do you think the sharp money won't come in until later? I would imagine the public/square money would come in on Thursday/Friday as people (squares such as myself) flock to Vegas, while the sharps would jump on the line early if they thought it was inaccurate from the outset.
Not trying to call you out, I just really find this stuff interesting.
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03-15-2016, 09:32 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by big jordan
Why do you think the sharp money won't come in until later? I would imagine the public/square money would come in on Thursday/Friday as people (squares such as myself) flock to Vegas, while the sharps would jump on the line early if they thought it was inaccurate from the outset.
Not trying to call you out, I just really find this stuff interesting.
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...but if the sharps think it is a fair line now but think the squares will move it to an inaccurate line they will put their money down then ... but if Vegas sees too much action after the sharps put their money down they will move the line the other way and the sharps will now hedge their bets ... but if...
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03-15-2016, 09:51 AM
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Brigadier General
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Both of you make valid points, and honestly i used to think that way. I went to Vegas for March Madness with my poker pals and my buddy in my poker group was a paper science major at Miami and he became friends with a guy who is a Sharp. This guy goes every year. he let us in a little bit in his world and while he has a regular job i still consider him a sharp. you are correct about the hedge bet but also, a lot of these guys wait until the last minute to make sure their are no last minute concerns.
Example: In the 2013 tournament Akron played VCU and at the time The Havoc and the heater skelter press was at its peak. Akron ruled out 3 guards about 15 minutes before tip that no one saw coming, another guy in the group received a phone call from his brother letting the table know. The Sharp dude came out of his chair running to the betting window, the rest of us having mad respect for him followed. Our table of 8 cleared over $10,000 on that one game. I won a $1000 money line bet. The line moved 3 points less then a minute later. It didn't matter, VCU smashed them.
I am no expert on Sharp betting. Far far far from it. But i like to think i have a general template of how these guys think.
I know i couldn't do it
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