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  #101  
Old 06-21-2022, 10:45 AM
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Great schedule and great work by the AD to get it together

Should be nice having a couple quality opponents before Atlantis
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  #102  
Old 06-21-2022, 11:11 AM
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SMU had to rebuild on the fly with their new coach

Nice break down of SMU's roster from On3
https://www.on3.com/teams/smu-mustan...y-commits-smu/

SMU brought in 7 transfers including a couple guys that UD recruited. Xavier Foster from Iowa State and Keon Ambrose-Hylton from Alabama

Former Centerville big man and one time UD recruit Mo Njie is there
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  #103  
Old 06-21-2022, 11:26 AM
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So as of now

Home Opener (probably 11/8)... ?????
11/11... SMU
11/15... at UNLV
11/19... Robert Morris
11/23-25... B4A
11/30... Western Michigan
12/17... Wyoming (in Chicago)
TBD... at Virginia Tech
TBD... ?????
TBD... ?????
TBD... ?????

Last edited by lhsgolf19; 06-21-2022 at 11:34 AM..
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  #104  
Old 06-21-2022, 11:32 AM
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With buy games filing out the schedule. What's the goal for OOC? 11-2?
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  #105  
Old 06-21-2022, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
With buy games filing out the schedule. What's the goal for OOC? 11-2?
The same goal it is every year - 13-0

Per what is realistic - Well - 13-0

What is expected - ah - that is different - and yes 11-2 would be a good expectation.
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  #106  
Old 06-21-2022, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411 View Post
The same goal it is every year - 13-0

Per what is realistic - Well - 13-0

What is expected - ah - that is different - and yes 11-2 would be a good expectation.
Our goal should always be double-digit wins in the non-con. Anything else makes an at-large exceedingly unlikely.
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  #107  
Old 06-21-2022, 04:23 PM
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One correction, I believe opening night is actually Monday, November 7. I don’t believe they will have any games anywhere on Tuesday the eighth because of election day. The college tipoff doubleheader isn’t even happening that night on ESPN like it normally would.
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  #108  
Old 06-21-2022, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
One correction, I believe opening night is actually Monday, November 7. I don’t believe they will have any games anywhere on Tuesday the eighth because of election day. The college tipoff doubleheader isn’t even happening that night on ESPN like it normally would.
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Yeah, the 7th is opening night. The NCAA made a big deal about giving student-athletes election day off
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  #109  
Old 06-22-2022, 08:23 AM
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SMU Baby. H/h
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  #110  
Old 06-22-2022, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
I wonder if we will continue the 15 away/ neutral plan next year after we conclude the h/h with VT. We have three H/H situations this year, one at home and two away. If we continue with three a 15 setup is a posibility.
Maybe IMO. Looking at the last several years of schedules, it appears that the goal is to get 7 good ooc games. We only had 6 last year, 1 at home and 5 away/neutral. We can almost always count on 3 exempt tourney games towards that goal.

So they are then trying to get 4 more whether it be a neutral site game or a home and home series. We have almost always gotten some combo of h/h's and neutrals, usually 2 at home iinm, along with iinm 2 aways/neutrals to get those other 4. This year there are 3 away/neutral and 1 home.

But getting the 4 h/h 's and neutrals to all line up exactly how we want them is getting increasingly difficult. So I am glad that UD is demonstrating increased flexibility with their total number of home games in their pursuit of the 4. IMO, it would be great if we could get to 8 in total, as that is what some of our peer competitors have been doing both presently and in the past.

I think we are done at this point in terms of getting any more good ooc games, lhsgolf posted upthread that 2 more h/h's would be announced, and they have in fact been announced, UNLV and SMU.

http://www.udpride.com/forums/showpo...2&postcount=69

But one more h/h game starting at UD would be great IMO, but it isn't going to happen IMO.

Last edited by ud2; 06-22-2022 at 12:28 PM..
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  #111  
Old 07-13-2022, 02:05 PM
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Rothstein is reporting that the Virginia Tech game will be December 7th in Blacksburg.
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/sta...VaP6G_XmJoQYZQ
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  #112  
Old 07-26-2022, 03:02 PM
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Battle 4 Atlantis bracket coming out Thursday
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  #113  
Old 07-26-2022, 06:49 PM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 View Post
Battle 4 Atlantis bracket coming out Thursday
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Heard from one of my Tennessee friends we are going to be a 3 seed - with Tennessee a 2 seed. KU obviously the 1 seed. We would need to beat the 6 seed first - then TN - to Face KU.

That said - I think we should be the 2 seed. But either way does not matter much - TN and UD are clearly a step above the rest. We just need to win win win.
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  #114  
Old 07-27-2022, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted by podcast411 View Post
Heard from one of my Tennessee friends we are going to be a 3 seed - with Tennessee a 2 seed. KU obviously the 1 seed. We would need to beat the 6 seed first - then TN - to Face KU.

That said - I think we should be the 2 seed. But either way does not matter much - TN and UD are clearly a step above the rest. We just need to win win win.
This makes sense. I'm guessing we are paired with BYU or NC St.
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  #115  
Old 07-28-2022, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 View Post
Battle 4 Atlantis bracket coming out Thursday
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Have not seen anything released. What was this post based on?
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  #116  
Old 07-28-2022, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Have not seen anything released. What was this post based on?
From Tuesday:

Robby McCombs
@rtmccombs
·
Jul 26
ESPN will release the Battle 4 Atlantis bracket on Thursday. BYU is in the 8-team field with Kansas, Tennessee, Wisconsin, USC, NC State, Dayton, and Butler.
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  #117  
Old 07-28-2022, 03:48 PM
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Does ESPN still reveal the brackets for all their key events on the same day? I believe they've done that in the past.
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  #118  
Old 07-29-2022, 05:43 PM
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UD plays Wisconsin in Game 2 on November 23rd.


https://twitter.com/DaytonMBB/status...C8Nt3S2TqpkzqA
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  #119  
Old 07-29-2022, 06:50 PM
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We will play Either KU or NC State

Rubber Match coming?
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  #120  
Old 07-29-2022, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
@UNLV (11/15)
Robert Morris (11/19)
Wisconsin (N, Bahamas, 11/23-25)
Kansas/N.C. State (N, Bahamas)
Butler/BYU/So. Cal/Tenn. (N, Bahamas)
Western Michigan (11/30)
@Virginia Tech (early-mid Dec.)
Wyoming (N, Chicago, 12/17)


5 games left to announce.
Update.
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  #121  
Old 07-29-2022, 07:14 PM
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Where are folks getting UK/NCSt in the 2nd game? Unless Atlantis is a magical wonderland where the top of brackets face each other and the bottom brackets face each other (instead of a normal place, where left side plays left side and right side plays right side), shouldn't we be lined up to face TN/Butler?
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  #122  
Old 07-29-2022, 07:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia View Post
Where are folks getting UK/NCSt in the 2nd game? Unless Atlantis is a magical wonderland where the top of brackets face each other and the bottom brackets face each other (instead of a normal place, where left side plays left side and right side plays right side), shouldn't we be lined up to face TN/Butler?
In every previous B4A Tourney, Game 1 winner plays Game 2 winner
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  #123  
Old 07-29-2022, 08:41 PM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 View Post
In every previous B4A Tourney, Game 1 winner plays Game 2 winner
It appears we are in the 4/5 seed line. Seems a little low to me…I guess we’ll just have to beat Kansas AGAIN to get to finals.
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  #124  
Old 07-30-2022, 06:33 AM
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
It appears we are in the 4/5 seed line. Seems a little low to me…I guess we’ll just have to beat Kansas AGAIN to get to finals.
We could beat Kansas and not play for the championship.
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  #125  
Old 08-01-2022, 01:56 PM
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UD hosting UNC Asheville on December 10th

Should be one of the contenders in the Big South, not bad for a “buy”

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  #126  
Old 08-01-2022, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by DGO67 View Post
We could beat Kansas and not play for the championship.
correction: We are not in the same half of the bracket with Kansas. So
we'll play Kansas for the championship if we both advance to the final.
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  #127  
Old 08-01-2022, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by DGO67 View Post
correction: We are not in the same half of the bracket with Kansas. So
we'll play Kansas for the championship if we both advance to the final.
Might want to correct that again


2022 Battle4Atlantis (all times Central)
Wednesday, Nov. 23
Game 1 – KANSAS vs. N.C. State, 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Game 2 – Dayton vs. Wisconsin, 1:30 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)
Game 3 – USC vs. BYU, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 4 – Tennessee vs. Butler, 6:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

Thursday, Nov. 24
Game 5 – G1 Winner vs. G2 Winner, 10 a.m. (ESPN)
Game 6 – G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 7 – G1 Loser vs. G2 Loser, 3 p.m. (ESPNEWS)
Game 8 – G3 Loser vs. G4 Loser, 5:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

Friday, Nov. 25
Championship – G5 winner vs. G6 Winner, Noon (ESPN2)
Third Place – G5 Loser vs. G6 Loser, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Fifth Place – G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner, 6 p.m. (ESPNEWS)
Seventh Place – G7 Loser vs. G8 Loser, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
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  #128  
Old 08-01-2022, 08:37 PM
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SMU (11/11)
@UNLV (11/15)
Robert Morris (11/19)
Wisconsin (N, Bahamas, 11/23-25)
Kansas/N.C. State (N, Bahamas)
Butler/BYU/So. Cal/Tenn. (N, Bahamas)
Western Michigan (11/30)
@Virginia Tech (12/7)
UNC Asheville (12/10)
Wyoming (N, Chicago, 12/17)

3 games left to schedule and/or announce.

Last edited by hawkoooo; 08-01-2022 at 08:41 PM..
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  #129  
Old 08-01-2022, 08:42 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
@UNLV (11/15)
Robert Morris (11/19)
Wisconsin (N, Bahamas, 11/23-25)
Kansas/N.C. State (N, Bahamas)
Butler/BYU/So. Cal/Tenn. (N, Bahamas)
Western Michigan (11/30)
@Virginia Tech (12/7)
UNC Asheville (12/10)
Wyoming (N, Chicago, 12/17)

4 games left to schedule and/or announce.
You are missing the game against SMU on Nov 11.
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  #130  
Old 08-02-2022, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
Might want to correct that again


2022 Battle4Atlantis (all times Central)
Wednesday, Nov. 23
Game 1 – KANSAS vs. N.C. State, 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Game 2 – Dayton vs. Wisconsin, 1:30 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)
Game 3 – USC vs. BYU, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 4 – Tennessee vs. Butler, 6:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

Thursday, Nov. 24
Game 5 – G1 Winner vs. G2 Winner, 10 a.m. (ESPN)
Game 6 – G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 7 – G1 Loser vs. G2 Loser, 3 p.m. (ESPNEWS)
Game 8 – G3 Loser vs. G4 Loser, 5:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

Friday, Nov. 25
Championship – G5 winner vs. G6 Winner, Noon (ESPN2)
Third Place – G5 Loser vs. G6 Loser, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Fifth Place – G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner, 6 p.m. (ESPNEWS)
Seventh Place – G7 Loser vs. G8 Loser, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
Assuming Kansas is the #1 Seed, am I to assume then that we are no higher than a #4 Seed? Seems a bit disrespectful, given the national buzz around the program, with several mentions of preseason Top 25.
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Old 08-02-2022, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Assuming Kansas is the #1 Seed, am I to assume then that we are no higher than a #4 Seed? Seems a bit disrespectful, given the national buzz around the program, with several mentions of preseason Top 25.
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Tennessee is a Top10-12 team on pretty much every early poll. We are 20-25, and USC is typically listed on the just outside the top 25 lists. Not really a big deal. We would have to play Kansas to win it all anyway.
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  #132  
Old 08-02-2022, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Assuming Kansas is the #1 Seed, am I to assume then that we are no higher than a #4 Seed? Seems a bit disrespectful, given the national buzz around the program, with several mentions of preseason Top 25.
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Do they even really "seed" these tournaments?
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Old 08-02-2022, 11:33 AM
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I imagine part of it is based upon TV. Placing BYU or USC too early wouldn't be the best plan, I'm sure the idea was to have them both in the later bracket to help generate more eyeballs on the west coast and mountains. Not sure how many USC fans would tune in, but I'd guess more @ lunchtime (west coast) than breakfast time.
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Old 08-02-2022, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86 View Post
Do they even really "seed" these tournaments?
They are loosely seeded I believe. Loose to the point that complaining about our "seed" is quite silly.
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  #135  
Old 08-03-2022, 09:37 AM
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To walk out of the Bahamas with wins over Wisconsin, Kansas and Tennessee would be titanic
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  #136  
Old 08-03-2022, 09:39 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
They are loosely seeded I believe. Loose to the point that complaining about our "seed" is quite silly.
agreed, but I actually think you want a bad "seed" in these tourneys. The more good games the better in an exempt tourney. I'd much rather play Wisconsin than likely ACC bottom feeder NC State
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  #137  
Old 08-10-2022, 12:57 PM
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Full Non-Con Released

https://daytonflyers.com/news/2022/8...led-story.aspx

Open Season on Monday the 7th vs. brand new D-I program Lindenwood, they will be an OVC team.
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  #138  
Old 08-10-2022, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 View Post
Full Non-Con Released

https://daytonflyers.com/news/2022/8...led-story.aspx

Open Season on Monday the 7th vs. brand new D-I program Lindenwood, they will be an OVC team.
I was concerned we had to fill a spot with a DII school.
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  #139  
Old 08-10-2022, 03:47 PM
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13-0
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  #140  
Old 08-10-2022, 05:22 PM
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Can we just all take a moment and appreciate that Neil Sullivan is a treasure and we are all **** lucky to have him as our athletic director? There is never a question, given all the challenges a school like hours could have at scheduling games, he gives us quality nonconference opportunities. Now it’s up to Anthony and the boys to execute.
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  #141  
Old 08-23-2022, 10:27 AM
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Wyoming game a part of the Legends of Basketball Showcase

https://www.legendsofbasketball.com/...ball-showcase/

We are in the evening session of the quadruple header... Times to be announced later.
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  #142  
Old 08-23-2022, 01:32 PM
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Nice to see Johnny Davis is chairmen of their board of directors.
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  #143  
Old 09-19-2022, 02:00 PM
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Wyoming is the first game in night double header (8 pm) so plan accordingly
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  #144  
Old 09-19-2022, 02:42 PM
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If you are interested in going to the Wyoming game, tickets go on sale to general public on Weds. You can get access to tix tomorrow if you go to the website and supply your email address. That capability was out there several weeks ago at least.
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Old 09-19-2022, 05:16 PM
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Better be ready to go right off the bat, baptism by fire. Not much of a warm up period.


October 29, 2022 Capital UD Arena...preseason
November 7, 2022 Lindenwood UD Arena
November 11, 2022 SMU UD Arena
November 15, 2022 at UNLV
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  #146  
Old 09-19-2022, 07:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
If you are interested in going to the Wyoming game, tickets go on sale to general public on Weds. You can get access to tix tomorrow if you go to the website and supply your email address. That capability was out there several weeks ago at least.
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Is this one of the deals where you have to buy tickets to every game at the event?
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  #147  
Old 09-19-2022, 07:54 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
Is this one of the deals where you have to buy tickets to every game at the event?
Sounds like ticket is for 1 session of 2 games
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  #148  
Old 09-20-2022, 08:54 AM
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season ticket holder email

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer View Post
If you are interested in going to the Wyoming game, tickets go on sale to general public on Weds. You can get access to tix tomorrow if you go to the website and supply your email address. That capability was out there several weeks ago at least.
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UD sent out an email last week for Early Access tickets.

Flyer fans, join the men's basketball team in Chicago this December during the Legends of Basketball Showcase! Fans can purchase “Early Bird” tickets beginning today via Ticketmaster.

The Flyers will play in the evening session where Dayton will match up against Wyoming at 7:00 PM and at 9:30 PM, NC State will take on Vanderbilt.

To purchase tickets follow these steps:

Click on the "Buy Now" button below
Follow the link to Ticketmaster, it will direct you to a seating map
Dayton fans will be able to unlock the map with the promo code: FLYERS
Dayton fans are encouraged to buy from sections 101-106 and 201-209
Select your seats and proceed to check out
The tickets being purchasing with the code "FLYERS" are only good for the evening session. If you would like to attend the whole day of this showcase, afternoon session tickets must also be purchase separately.

https://www.ticketmaster.com/event/0...U4MDM4OTYxMAS2
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  #149  
Old 09-20-2022, 09:52 AM
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
UD sent out an email last week for Early Access tickets.

Flyer fans, join the men's basketball team in Chicago this December during the Legends of Basketball Showcase! Fans can purchase “Early Bird” tickets beginning today via Ticketmaster.

The Flyers will play in the evening session where Dayton will match up against Wyoming at 7:00 PM and at 9:30 PM, NC State will take on Vanderbilt.

To purchase tickets follow these steps:

Click on the "Buy Now" button below
Follow the link to Ticketmaster, it will direct you to a seating map
Dayton fans will be able to unlock the map with the promo code: FLYERS
Dayton fans are encouraged to buy from sections 101-106 and 201-209
Select your seats and proceed to check out
The tickets being purchasing with the code "FLYERS" are only good for the evening session. If you would like to attend the whole day of this showcase, afternoon session tickets must also be purchase separately.

https://www.ticketmaster.com/event/0...U4MDM4OTYxMAS2
Thanks I missed that email. Got in even earlier and got our just now - Thx !
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  #150  
Old 09-20-2022, 04:25 PM
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FLYERS code does not unlock for me?
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  #151  
Old 09-20-2022, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by mikeymo85 View Post
FLYERS code does not unlock for me?
Yeah, I agree. Entering the code FLYERS does not unlock anything, that code doesn't work.
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  #152  
Old 09-21-2022, 12:39 PM
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It did work the other week but it is not working now for whatever reason.
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  #153  
Old 09-21-2022, 03:49 PM
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LEGENDS22 will also allow you to buy in the Dayton section
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  #154  
Old 10-11-2022, 09:46 PM
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Jeff Goodman has posted the list of "secret" scrimmages. Included on his list is Dayton vs. West Virginia on Oct 22 at Bethany College.

Full list here:
https://watchstadium.com/not-so-secr...es-10-07-2022/
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  #155  
Old 10-15-2022, 09:01 AM
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AAC Preseason Coaches Poll

1. Houston (10) - 100
2. Memphis (1) - 87
3. Cincinnati - 82
4. Tulane - 74
5. Temple - 66
6. UCF - 51
7. SMU - 43
8. Wichita State - 35
9. South Florida - 33
10. Tulsa - 21
11. East Carolina - 13

Depending on how everything comes to together with SMU's transfers, I wouldn't be surprised if they're higher
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Old 10-15-2022, 10:09 AM
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If South Florida finishes that far back again, you’ve gotta think it spells the end of Brian Gregory’s tenure. They’ve been pretty patient with him at the helm.

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Old 10-17-2022, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
If South Florida finishes that far back again, you’ve gotta think it spells the end of Brian Gregory’s tenure. They’ve been pretty patient with him at the helm.
He just signed an extension last Oct. running through 2026. Can't imagine he's on the hot seat this year.
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Old 10-17-2022, 09:59 AM
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He’s 65-89 at South Florida, with only one winning season. The Bulls lost 23 games last year … 23! He’s never had a winning record in the AAC and went 3-15 in conference play last year. In his second year, he did guide the Bulls to a CBI championship, beating powerhouses Stony Brook (after trailing by 25), Utah Valley, Loyola Marymount and DePaul. I like the guy and root for him, but his record at USF is abysmal. That contract extension means squat in the grand scheme of things. Unless there’s a drastic turnaround this season, his seat will not just be hot, it likely will be on fire.
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Old 10-17-2022, 11:07 AM
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https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/sm...ason-rankings/

quick blurb on SMU

Mustangs have 4 power conference transfers including a former McDonald's AA from Louisville.
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Old 10-17-2022, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/sm...ason-rankings/

quick blurb on SMU

Mustangs have 4 power conference transfers including a former McDonald's AA from Louisville.
Torvik is only projecting SMU to be #150, should be a comfortable win.

https://barttorvik.com/
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Old 10-17-2022, 10:52 PM
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SMU

Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Torvik is only projecting SMU to be #150, should be a comfortable win.

No such thing as a comfortable win until it's in the books.

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Old 10-17-2022, 11:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
No such thing as a comfortable win until it's in the books.

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Yes, I see that Kenpom has them at #114. This will not be a cakewalk. Significant difference between 114 and 150.
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Old 10-18-2022, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
No such thing as a comfortable win until it's in the books.

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"That's why they play the games......"
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Old 10-18-2022, 10:06 AM
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https://twitter.com/RoccoMiller8/sta...72083643752448

Not surprising but Lindenwood picked last in the OVC preseason poll
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Old 10-18-2022, 10:47 AM
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Meanwhile, Butler picked to finish ninth in the Big East. Ideally, let’s win some games and avoid them in the Bahamas!
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Old 10-18-2022, 11:25 AM
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After UMass Lowell there are no cakewalks.
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Old 10-18-2022, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Torvik is only projecting SMU to be #150, should be a comfortable win.

https://barttorvik.com/
How do these sites come up with projections when 0 games have been played? Especially with all the transfers and incoming freshmen.

I can see the value of the advanced metrics (although I don't follow them) further into the season, but is it more than just a crapshoot right now?
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Old 10-18-2022, 11:47 AM
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Both Torvik and Pomeroy has explained this, I think its even listed on their sites somewhere, but essentially what they do is take the stats of returning players, add in the rankings of incoming recruits/transfers along with a historical bias for what a team has done in the past and what a particular coach has done in the past.


So is it a crapshoot at the beginning of the season? Kinda, but there is a lot of historical data that is used in their equation. A top 100 recruit at Gonzaga typically does pretty well (I'm guessing, I don't actually know) while an unranked kid at Dayton probably doesn't see much time and doesn't offer much impact on their preseason rankings.


Now, perhaps you don't like that, and that is fine, the good thing is that both sites from their preseason projections (I believe Torvik moves away than Pomeroy) and relies more and more on actual data from that seasons games to the point where there is no longer any reliance on any of the preseason projections and historical data and a teams rating is soley based upon the results of the current season. IIRC, Torvik's system is completely based upon the current season around game 7 of the season (so 3-4 weeks in) while Kenpom is around game 11 (so 4-5 games into the season).


Naturally in any type of system like this there will be holes for individual teams based upon lack of real data heading into the season. For instance, the impact that Obi was going to have as a frosh many on here felt was possible based upon reports from practices, however at either of those places I'm guessing Obi wasn't considered as any sort of potential impact player due to his non ranking and having sat out his first season. However, I think as a "whole" both are pretty good in getting the general sense of the basketball landscape when no real data is available at the start of the season.
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Old 10-18-2022, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by superfan99 View Post
How do these sites come up with projections when 0 games have been played? Especially with all the transfers and incoming freshmen.

I can see the value of the advanced metrics (although I don't follow them) further into the season, but is it more than just a crapshoot right now?
It is 100% a crapshoot but it exists because fans like us will consume anything college basketball, especially this time of year.
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Old 10-18-2022, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyers98 View Post
It is 100% a crapshoot but it exists because fans like us will consume anything college basketball, especially this time of year.
We should not discount the value of waving that projection around with our recruiting as well.
We aren't Duke or UNC. They can snub the talk about early season ratings, but we definitely
add another tool to our recruiting box that many other programs are accustomed to every season. Joe Lunardi has us a 5 seed. I don't know what kind of witchcraft he uses, but I'll take it .
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Old 10-18-2022, 07:22 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
Joe Lunardi has us a 5 seed. I don't know what kind of witchcraft he uses, but I'll take it .
So does Torvik if we win the games he is projecting us to win. I would take a 5 seed 8 days a week.
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Old 10-18-2022, 08:38 PM
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Originally Posted by superfan99 View Post
How do these sites come up with projections when 0 games have been played? Especially with all the transfers and incoming freshmen.

I can see the value of the advanced metrics (although I don't follow them) further into the season, but is it more than just a crapshoot right now?
To make money.
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Old 10-19-2022, 06:56 AM
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Originally Posted by superfan99 View Post
How do these sites come up with projections when 0 games have been played? Especially with all the transfers and incoming freshmen.

I can see the value of the advanced metrics (although I don't follow them) further into the season, but is it more than just a crapshoot right now?
Read Medford's post.

It goes without saying that any preseason rankings in any sport across the globe are just educated guesses.

Nobody is forcing you to put any stock in these preseason predictions. If you don't want to read about preseason predictions, then just skip this thread and wait about 2 or 3 weeks until the games actually begin.
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Old 10-19-2022, 07:56 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Read Medford's post.

It goes without saying that any preseason rankings in any sport across the globe are just educated guesses.

Nobody is forcing you to put any stock in these preseason predictions. If you don't want to read about preseason predictions, then just skip this thread and wait about 2 or 3 weeks until the games actually begin.
Unnecessarily confrontational.

I did read Medford's post, and thanked it. He posted it AFTER my question. It was a good and helpful response.

I don't see why you are jumping to the classic "nobody is forcing me" and "skip the thread" lines. I love reading about preseason predictions or anything else Flyers b-ball.

I know that Lunardi and other bracketologists are using educated guesses/predictions. The reason for my post is that I was curious how the analytics guys handled it. I thought they were using 100% numbers, so I didn't understand how they were coming up with preseason "predictions". I was asking about the difference between the "prediction" guys and the "projection" guys. It was a legitimate question.
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Old 10-19-2022, 10:02 AM
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Excellent post Superfan.
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Old 10-19-2022, 11:20 AM
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The "eye test" guys are looking at

Who do you have returning?
What did they do last year?
Was anybody injured?
How much experience do they have?
Who do you add?
What did they do at their previous stop?
How good is your coach historically?
How good is your program historically?
How tough will your conference be this year?
How has your summer gone?
Rumors? Injuries?

And come up with a rough projection.

The computer guys do the same but with numbers instead of feel.

Everybody puts slightly different weight on different factors, writers and computer guys alike.

The reality is that both groups do a pretty good job overall. Most of today's top 25 will be top 6 seeds in March. They may get a few teams wrong, and some players will surprise (good or bad), and some crucial injuries will happen, but overall they'll do pretty well.
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Old 10-19-2022, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
The "eye test" guys are looking at

Who do you have returning?
What did they do last year?
Was anybody injured?
How much experience do they have?
Who do you add?
What did they do at their previous stop?
How good is your coach historically?
How good is your program historically?
How tough will your conference be this year?
How has your summer gone?
Rumors? Injuries?

And come up with a rough projection.

The computer guys do the same but with numbers instead of feel.

Everybody puts slightly different weight on different factors, writers and computer guys alike.

The reality is that both groups do a pretty good job overall. Most of today's top 25 will be top 6 seeds in March. They may get a few teams wrong, and some players will surprise (good or bad), and some crucial injuries will happen, but overall they'll do pretty well.
Forecasting top 25 teams is not the issue in my mind, that is relatively easy. Where everything breaks down is when you don't have data for this season and you have to forecast a tourney field which necessarily takes into account SoS, opponents SoS, etc... I don't care how dedicated these guys are to their craft (and some are definitely more dedicated than others and/or have better methodologies), there is just no way that someone is doing a deep dive on Central New Mexico State, A&T (made up school at least I think it is), for the purposes of accurately forecasting UCLA's seed in the tourney. That top 144 seems to go on forever, yet that is 41% of the 352 Division 1 programs.

I am sure the computer guys have data sets they work with but there is just no way they know as much about CNMS, A&T, or even UD for that matter, as they know about Duke. Unlike the pros, there is a ton of turnover in college basketball every year, I have noticed that top 50 guys as rated by recruiting services are pretty accurate but much below that and it can be hit or miss. I think the new crop (and it isn't 60 guys like in the NBA), of players coming in every year and the sheer number to teams to evaluate who will potentially effect seeding/bids, make it way harder to accurately forecast the NCAA tourney. Every one of those guys will tell you, "judge me by my last projection and disregard the first."
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Old 10-19-2022, 04:32 PM
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Sure, but forecasting Central New Mexico State is easy. Their five-year running average is 300+ in the NET. Absent some earth-shattering recruiting or coaching news, you project them to be 300+ again. Most likely, you'll be right within 30 spots, and if you're wrong, precisely nobody cares, unless they somehow crack the top 150, in which case everybody says "nobody saw this coming," because everybody else had them 300+ too.
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Old 10-19-2022, 06:26 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
Sure, but forecasting Central New Mexico State is easy. Their five-year running average is 300+ in the NET. Absent some earth-shattering recruiting or coaching news, you project them to be 300+ again. Most likely, you'll be right within 30 spots, and if you're wrong, precisely nobody cares, unless they somehow crack the top 150, in which case everybody says "nobody saw this coming," because everybody else had them 300+ too.
I was using them as an example, a poor one it seems since they actually exist. My point is that until there is actually some data, probably around December these projections have little to no grounding in reality and are the best guesses of some really smart people and some people who are just fans with a website.

Don't get me wrong, I read them all. I get excited when the UD reviews are positive and mad when they are critical but once they roll the ball out, everything takes care of itself, "math is gonna math."
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