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06-21-2022, 10:45 AM
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General
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Great schedule and great work by the AD to get it together
Should be nice having a couple quality opponents before Atlantis
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06-21-2022, 11:11 AM
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General
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SMU had to rebuild on the fly with their new coach
Nice break down of SMU's roster from On3
https://www.on3.com/teams/smu-mustan...y-commits-smu/
SMU brought in 7 transfers including a couple guys that UD recruited. Xavier Foster from Iowa State and Keon Ambrose-Hylton from Alabama
Former Centerville big man and one time UD recruit Mo Njie is there
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06-21-2022, 11:26 AM
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General of the Air Force
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So as of now
Home Opener (probably 11/8)... ?????
11/11... SMU
11/15... at UNLV
11/19... Robert Morris
11/23-25... B4A
11/30... Western Michigan
12/17... Wyoming (in Chicago)
TBD... at Virginia Tech
TBD... ?????
TBD... ?????
TBD... ?????
Last edited by lhsgolf19; 06-21-2022 at 11:34 AM..
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06-21-2022, 11:32 AM
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With buy games filing out the schedule. What's the goal for OOC? 11-2?
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06-21-2022, 12:30 PM
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Major
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
With buy games filing out the schedule. What's the goal for OOC? 11-2?
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The same goal it is every year - 13-0
Per what is realistic - Well - 13-0
What is expected - ah - that is different - and yes 11-2 would be a good expectation.
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06-21-2022, 03:09 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by podcast411
The same goal it is every year - 13-0
Per what is realistic - Well - 13-0
What is expected - ah - that is different - and yes 11-2 would be a good expectation.
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Our goal should always be double-digit wins in the non-con. Anything else makes an at-large exceedingly unlikely.
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06-21-2022, 04:23 PM
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Colonel
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One correction, I believe opening night is actually Monday, November 7. I don’t believe they will have any games anywhere on Tuesday the eighth because of election day. The college tipoff doubleheader isn’t even happening that night on ESPN like it normally would.
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06-21-2022, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
One correction, I believe opening night is actually Monday, November 7. I don’t believe they will have any games anywhere on Tuesday the eighth because of election day. The college tipoff doubleheader isn’t even happening that night on ESPN like it normally would.
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Yeah, the 7th is opening night. The NCAA made a big deal about giving student-athletes election day off
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06-22-2022, 08:23 AM
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SMU Baby. H/h
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06-22-2022, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
I wonder if we will continue the 15 away/ neutral plan next year after we conclude the h/h with VT. We have three H/H situations this year, one at home and two away. If we continue with three a 15 setup is a posibility.
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Maybe IMO. Looking at the last several years of schedules, it appears that the goal is to get 7 good ooc games. We only had 6 last year, 1 at home and 5 away/neutral. We can almost always count on 3 exempt tourney games towards that goal.
So they are then trying to get 4 more whether it be a neutral site game or a home and home series. We have almost always gotten some combo of h/h's and neutrals, usually 2 at home iinm, along with iinm 2 aways/neutrals to get those other 4. This year there are 3 away/neutral and 1 home.
But getting the 4 h/h 's and neutrals to all line up exactly how we want them is getting increasingly difficult. So I am glad that UD is demonstrating increased flexibility with their total number of home games in their pursuit of the 4. IMO, it would be great if we could get to 8 in total, as that is what some of our peer competitors have been doing both presently and in the past.
I think we are done at this point in terms of getting any more good ooc games, lhsgolf posted upthread that 2 more h/h's would be announced, and they have in fact been announced, UNLV and SMU.
http://www.udpride.com/forums/showpo...2&postcount=69
But one more h/h game starting at UD would be great IMO, but it isn't going to happen IMO.
Last edited by ud2; 06-22-2022 at 12:28 PM..
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07-13-2022, 02:05 PM
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Rothstein is reporting that the Virginia Tech game will be December 7th in Blacksburg.
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/sta...VaP6G_XmJoQYZQ
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Mad Props to Flyer Al For This Totally Excellent Post:
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07-26-2022, 03:02 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Battle 4 Atlantis bracket coming out Thursday
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07-26-2022, 06:49 PM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19
Battle 4 Atlantis bracket coming out Thursday
Posted via Mobile Device
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Heard from one of my Tennessee friends we are going to be a 3 seed - with Tennessee a 2 seed. KU obviously the 1 seed. We would need to beat the 6 seed first - then TN - to Face KU.
That said - I think we should be the 2 seed. But either way does not matter much - TN and UD are clearly a step above the rest. We just need to win win win.
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07-27-2022, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
Heard from one of my Tennessee friends we are going to be a 3 seed - with Tennessee a 2 seed. KU obviously the 1 seed. We would need to beat the 6 seed first - then TN - to Face KU.
That said - I think we should be the 2 seed. But either way does not matter much - TN and UD are clearly a step above the rest. We just need to win win win.
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This makes sense. I'm guessing we are paired with BYU or NC St.
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07-28-2022, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19
Battle 4 Atlantis bracket coming out Thursday
Posted via Mobile Device
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Have not seen anything released. What was this post based on?
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07-28-2022, 03:36 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Have not seen anything released. What was this post based on?
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From Tuesday:
Robby McCombs
@rtmccombs
·
Jul 26
ESPN will release the Battle 4 Atlantis bracket on Thursday. BYU is in the 8-team field with Kansas, Tennessee, Wisconsin, USC, NC State, Dayton, and Butler.
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07-28-2022, 03:48 PM
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Does ESPN still reveal the brackets for all their key events on the same day? I believe they've done that in the past.
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07-29-2022, 05:43 PM
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07-29-2022, 06:50 PM
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General of the Air Force
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We will play Either KU or NC State
Rubber Match coming?
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07-29-2022, 07:00 PM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
@UNLV (11/15)
Robert Morris (11/19)
Wisconsin (N, Bahamas, 11/23-25)
Kansas/N.C. State (N, Bahamas)
Butler/BYU/So. Cal/Tenn. (N, Bahamas)
Western Michigan (11/30)
@Virginia Tech (early-mid Dec.)
Wyoming (N, Chicago, 12/17)
5 games left to announce.
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Update.
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07-29-2022, 07:14 PM
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Captain
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Where are folks getting UK/NCSt in the 2nd game? Unless Atlantis is a magical wonderland where the top of brackets face each other and the bottom brackets face each other (instead of a normal place, where left side plays left side and right side plays right side), shouldn't we be lined up to face TN/Butler?
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07-29-2022, 07:22 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia
Where are folks getting UK/NCSt in the 2nd game? Unless Atlantis is a magical wonderland where the top of brackets face each other and the bottom brackets face each other (instead of a normal place, where left side plays left side and right side plays right side), shouldn't we be lined up to face TN/Butler?
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In every previous B4A Tourney, Game 1 winner plays Game 2 winner
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07-29-2022, 08:41 PM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19
In every previous B4A Tourney, Game 1 winner plays Game 2 winner
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It appears we are in the 4/5 seed line. Seems a little low to me…I guess we’ll just have to beat Kansas AGAIN to get to finals.
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07-30-2022, 06:33 AM
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Originally Posted by springborofan
It appears we are in the 4/5 seed line. Seems a little low to me…I guess we’ll just have to beat Kansas AGAIN to get to finals.
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We could beat Kansas and not play for the championship.
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08-01-2022, 01:56 PM
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General of the Air Force
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UD hosting UNC Asheville on December 10th
Should be one of the contenders in the Big South, not bad for a “buy”
Last edited by lhsgolf19; 08-01-2022 at 02:03 PM..
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08-01-2022, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by DGO67
We could beat Kansas and not play for the championship.
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correction: We are not in the same half of the bracket with Kansas. So
we'll play Kansas for the championship if we both advance to the final.
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08-01-2022, 04:48 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by DGO67
correction: We are not in the same half of the bracket with Kansas. So
we'll play Kansas for the championship if we both advance to the final.
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Might want to correct that again
2022 Battle4Atlantis (all times Central)
Wednesday, Nov. 23
Game 1 – KANSAS vs. N.C. State, 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Game 2 – Dayton vs. Wisconsin, 1:30 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)
Game 3 – USC vs. BYU, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 4 – Tennessee vs. Butler, 6:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Thursday, Nov. 24
Game 5 – G1 Winner vs. G2 Winner, 10 a.m. (ESPN)
Game 6 – G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 7 – G1 Loser vs. G2 Loser, 3 p.m. (ESPNEWS)
Game 8 – G3 Loser vs. G4 Loser, 5:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
Friday, Nov. 25
Championship – G5 winner vs. G6 Winner, Noon (ESPN2)
Third Place – G5 Loser vs. G6 Loser, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Fifth Place – G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner, 6 p.m. (ESPNEWS)
Seventh Place – G7 Loser vs. G8 Loser, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
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08-01-2022, 08:37 PM
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SMU (11/11)
@UNLV (11/15)
Robert Morris (11/19)
Wisconsin (N, Bahamas, 11/23-25)
Kansas/N.C. State (N, Bahamas)
Butler/BYU/So. Cal/Tenn. (N, Bahamas)
Western Michigan (11/30)
@Virginia Tech (12/7)
UNC Asheville (12/10)
Wyoming (N, Chicago, 12/17)
3 games left to schedule and/or announce.
Last edited by hawkoooo; 08-01-2022 at 08:41 PM..
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08-01-2022, 08:42 PM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
@UNLV (11/15)
Robert Morris (11/19)
Wisconsin (N, Bahamas, 11/23-25)
Kansas/N.C. State (N, Bahamas)
Butler/BYU/So. Cal/Tenn. (N, Bahamas)
Western Michigan (11/30)
@Virginia Tech (12/7)
UNC Asheville (12/10)
Wyoming (N, Chicago, 12/17)
4 games left to schedule and/or announce.
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You are missing the game against SMU on Nov 11.
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08-02-2022, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan
Might want to correct that again
2022 Battle4Atlantis (all times Central)
Wednesday, Nov. 23
Game 1 – KANSAS vs. N.C. State, 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Game 2 – Dayton vs. Wisconsin, 1:30 p.m. (ESPN or ESPN2)
Game 3 – USC vs. BYU, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 4 – Tennessee vs. Butler, 6:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Thursday, Nov. 24
Game 5 – G1 Winner vs. G2 Winner, 10 a.m. (ESPN)
Game 6 – G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 7 – G1 Loser vs. G2 Loser, 3 p.m. (ESPNEWS)
Game 8 – G3 Loser vs. G4 Loser, 5:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
Friday, Nov. 25
Championship – G5 winner vs. G6 Winner, Noon (ESPN2)
Third Place – G5 Loser vs. G6 Loser, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Fifth Place – G7 Winner vs. G8 Winner, 6 p.m. (ESPNEWS)
Seventh Place – G7 Loser vs. G8 Loser, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
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Assuming Kansas is the #1 Seed, am I to assume then that we are no higher than a #4 Seed? Seems a bit disrespectful, given the national buzz around the program, with several mentions of preseason Top 25.
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08-02-2022, 09:43 AM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
Assuming Kansas is the #1 Seed, am I to assume then that we are no higher than a #4 Seed? Seems a bit disrespectful, given the national buzz around the program, with several mentions of preseason Top 25.
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Tennessee is a Top10-12 team on pretty much every early poll. We are 20-25, and USC is typically listed on the just outside the top 25 lists. Not really a big deal. We would have to play Kansas to win it all anyway.
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08-02-2022, 10:59 AM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
Assuming Kansas is the #1 Seed, am I to assume then that we are no higher than a #4 Seed? Seems a bit disrespectful, given the national buzz around the program, with several mentions of preseason Top 25.
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Do they even really "seed" these tournaments?
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08-02-2022, 11:33 AM
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I imagine part of it is based upon TV. Placing BYU or USC too early wouldn't be the best plan, I'm sure the idea was to have them both in the later bracket to help generate more eyeballs on the west coast and mountains. Not sure how many USC fans would tune in, but I'd guess more @ lunchtime (west coast) than breakfast time.
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08-02-2022, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86
Do they even really "seed" these tournaments?
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They are loosely seeded I believe. Loose to the point that complaining about our "seed" is quite silly.
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08-03-2022, 09:37 AM
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General
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To walk out of the Bahamas with wins over Wisconsin, Kansas and Tennessee would be titanic
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08-03-2022, 09:39 AM
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General
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
They are loosely seeded I believe. Loose to the point that complaining about our "seed" is quite silly.
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agreed, but I actually think you want a bad "seed" in these tourneys. The more good games the better in an exempt tourney. I'd much rather play Wisconsin than likely ACC bottom feeder NC State
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08-10-2022, 12:57 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Full Non-Con Released
https://daytonflyers.com/news/2022/8...led-story.aspx
Open Season on Monday the 7th vs. brand new D-I program Lindenwood, they will be an OVC team.
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08-10-2022, 02:51 PM
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Brigadier General
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I was concerned we had to fill a spot with a DII school.
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08-10-2022, 03:47 PM
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General
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13-0
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08-10-2022, 05:22 PM
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Colonel
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Can we just all take a moment and appreciate that Neil Sullivan is a treasure and we are all **** lucky to have him as our athletic director? There is never a question, given all the challenges a school like hours could have at scheduling games, he gives us quality nonconference opportunities. Now it’s up to Anthony and the boys to execute.
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08-23-2022, 10:27 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Wyoming game a part of the Legends of Basketball Showcase
https://www.legendsofbasketball.com/...ball-showcase/
We are in the evening session of the quadruple header... Times to be announced later.
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08-23-2022, 01:32 PM
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Nice to see Johnny Davis is chairmen of their board of directors.
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09-19-2022, 02:00 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Wyoming is the first game in night double header (8 pm) so plan accordingly
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09-19-2022, 02:42 PM
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Brigadier General
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If you are interested in going to the Wyoming game, tickets go on sale to general public on Weds. You can get access to tix tomorrow if you go to the website and supply your email address. That capability was out there several weeks ago at least.
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09-19-2022, 05:16 PM
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Better be ready to go right off the bat, baptism by fire. Not much of a warm up period.
October 29, 2022 Capital UD Arena...preseason
November 7, 2022 Lindenwood UD Arena
November 11, 2022 SMU UD Arena
November 15, 2022 at UNLV
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09-19-2022, 07:51 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
If you are interested in going to the Wyoming game, tickets go on sale to general public on Weds. You can get access to tix tomorrow if you go to the website and supply your email address. That capability was out there several weeks ago at least.
Posted via Mobile Device
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Is this one of the deals where you have to buy tickets to every game at the event?
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09-19-2022, 07:54 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
Is this one of the deals where you have to buy tickets to every game at the event?
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Sounds like ticket is for 1 session of 2 games
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09-20-2022, 08:54 AM
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season ticket holder email
Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer
If you are interested in going to the Wyoming game, tickets go on sale to general public on Weds. You can get access to tix tomorrow if you go to the website and supply your email address. That capability was out there several weeks ago at least.
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UD sent out an email last week for Early Access tickets.
Flyer fans, join the men's basketball team in Chicago this December during the Legends of Basketball Showcase! Fans can purchase “Early Bird” tickets beginning today via Ticketmaster.
The Flyers will play in the evening session where Dayton will match up against Wyoming at 7:00 PM and at 9:30 PM, NC State will take on Vanderbilt.
To purchase tickets follow these steps:
Click on the "Buy Now" button below
Follow the link to Ticketmaster, it will direct you to a seating map
Dayton fans will be able to unlock the map with the promo code: FLYERS
Dayton fans are encouraged to buy from sections 101-106 and 201-209
Select your seats and proceed to check out
The tickets being purchasing with the code "FLYERS" are only good for the evening session. If you would like to attend the whole day of this showcase, afternoon session tickets must also be purchase separately.
https://www.ticketmaster.com/event/0...U4MDM4OTYxMAS2
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09-20-2022, 09:52 AM
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
UD sent out an email last week for Early Access tickets.
Flyer fans, join the men's basketball team in Chicago this December during the Legends of Basketball Showcase! Fans can purchase “Early Bird” tickets beginning today via Ticketmaster.
The Flyers will play in the evening session where Dayton will match up against Wyoming at 7:00 PM and at 9:30 PM, NC State will take on Vanderbilt.
To purchase tickets follow these steps:
Click on the "Buy Now" button below
Follow the link to Ticketmaster, it will direct you to a seating map
Dayton fans will be able to unlock the map with the promo code: FLYERS
Dayton fans are encouraged to buy from sections 101-106 and 201-209
Select your seats and proceed to check out
The tickets being purchasing with the code "FLYERS" are only good for the evening session. If you would like to attend the whole day of this showcase, afternoon session tickets must also be purchase separately.
https://www.ticketmaster.com/event/0...U4MDM4OTYxMAS2
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Thanks I missed that email. Got in even earlier and got our just now - Thx !
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09-20-2022, 04:25 PM
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Lieutenant Colonel
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Join Date: Dec 2005
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FLYERS code does not unlock for me?
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09-20-2022, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by mikeymo85
FLYERS code does not unlock for me?
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Yeah, I agree. Entering the code FLYERS does not unlock anything, that code doesn't work.
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09-21-2022, 12:39 PM
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Just off the Jet
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It did work the other week but it is not working now for whatever reason.
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09-21-2022, 03:49 PM
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Captain
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LEGENDS22 will also allow you to buy in the Dayton section
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Mad Props to flyhi524 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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10-11-2022, 09:46 PM
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Colonel
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Jeff Goodman has posted the list of "secret" scrimmages. Included on his list is Dayton vs. West Virginia on Oct 22 at Bethany College.
Full list here:
https://watchstadium.com/not-so-secr...es-10-07-2022/
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Mad Props to shapanud For This Totally Excellent Post:
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10-15-2022, 09:01 AM
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General
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@GoodmanHoops
AAC Preseason Coaches Poll
1. Houston (10) - 100
2. Memphis (1) - 87
3. Cincinnati - 82
4. Tulane - 74
5. Temple - 66
6. UCF - 51
7. SMU - 43
8. Wichita State - 35
9. South Florida - 33
10. Tulsa - 21
11. East Carolina - 13
Depending on how everything comes to together with SMU's transfers, I wouldn't be surprised if they're higher
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10-15-2022, 10:09 AM
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If South Florida finishes that far back again, you’ve gotta think it spells the end of Brian Gregory’s tenure. They’ve been pretty patient with him at the helm.
Last edited by The Fly; 10-15-2022 at 11:57 AM..
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10-17-2022, 09:11 AM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by The Fly
If South Florida finishes that far back again, you’ve gotta think it spells the end of Brian Gregory’s tenure. They’ve been pretty patient with him at the helm.
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He just signed an extension last Oct. running through 2026. Can't imagine he's on the hot seat this year.
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10-17-2022, 09:59 AM
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He’s 65-89 at South Florida, with only one winning season. The Bulls lost 23 games last year … 23! He’s never had a winning record in the AAC and went 3-15 in conference play last year. In his second year, he did guide the Bulls to a CBI championship, beating powerhouses Stony Brook (after trailing by 25), Utah Valley, Loyola Marymount and DePaul. I like the guy and root for him, but his record at USF is abysmal. That contract extension means squat in the grand scheme of things. Unless there’s a drastic turnaround this season, his seat will not just be hot, it likely will be on fire.
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10-17-2022, 11:07 AM
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General
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https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/sm...ason-rankings/
quick blurb on SMU
Mustangs have 4 power conference transfers including a former McDonald's AA from Louisville.
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10-17-2022, 03:19 PM
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Torvik is only projecting SMU to be #150, should be a comfortable win.
https://barttorvik.com/
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10-17-2022, 10:52 PM
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SMU
Originally Posted by ud2
Torvik is only projecting SMU to be #150, should be a comfortable win.
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No such thing as a comfortable win until it's in the books.
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10-17-2022, 11:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
No such thing as a comfortable win until it's in the books.
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Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink
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Yes, I see that Kenpom has them at #114. This will not be a cakewalk. Significant difference between 114 and 150.
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10-18-2022, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
No such thing as a comfortable win until it's in the books.
_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink
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"That's why they play the games......"
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10-18-2022, 10:06 AM
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https://twitter.com/RoccoMiller8/sta...72083643752448
Not surprising but Lindenwood picked last in the OVC preseason poll
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Mad Props to OSU Flyer For This Totally Excellent Post:
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10-18-2022, 10:47 AM
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Meanwhile, Butler picked to finish ninth in the Big East. Ideally, let’s win some games and avoid them in the Bahamas!
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10-18-2022, 11:25 AM
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After UMass Lowell there are no cakewalks.
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10-18-2022, 11:27 AM
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Major
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Originally Posted by ud2
Torvik is only projecting SMU to be #150, should be a comfortable win.
https://barttorvik.com/
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How do these sites come up with projections when 0 games have been played? Especially with all the transfers and incoming freshmen.
I can see the value of the advanced metrics (although I don't follow them) further into the season, but is it more than just a crapshoot right now?
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10-18-2022, 11:47 AM
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Both Torvik and Pomeroy has explained this, I think its even listed on their sites somewhere, but essentially what they do is take the stats of returning players, add in the rankings of incoming recruits/transfers along with a historical bias for what a team has done in the past and what a particular coach has done in the past.
So is it a crapshoot at the beginning of the season? Kinda, but there is a lot of historical data that is used in their equation. A top 100 recruit at Gonzaga typically does pretty well (I'm guessing, I don't actually know) while an unranked kid at Dayton probably doesn't see much time and doesn't offer much impact on their preseason rankings.
Now, perhaps you don't like that, and that is fine, the good thing is that both sites from their preseason projections (I believe Torvik moves away than Pomeroy) and relies more and more on actual data from that seasons games to the point where there is no longer any reliance on any of the preseason projections and historical data and a teams rating is soley based upon the results of the current season. IIRC, Torvik's system is completely based upon the current season around game 7 of the season (so 3-4 weeks in) while Kenpom is around game 11 (so 4-5 games into the season).
Naturally in any type of system like this there will be holes for individual teams based upon lack of real data heading into the season. For instance, the impact that Obi was going to have as a frosh many on here felt was possible based upon reports from practices, however at either of those places I'm guessing Obi wasn't considered as any sort of potential impact player due to his non ranking and having sat out his first season. However, I think as a "whole" both are pretty good in getting the general sense of the basketball landscape when no real data is available at the start of the season.
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10-18-2022, 03:53 PM
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Colonel
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Originally Posted by superfan99
How do these sites come up with projections when 0 games have been played? Especially with all the transfers and incoming freshmen.
I can see the value of the advanced metrics (although I don't follow them) further into the season, but is it more than just a crapshoot right now?
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It is 100% a crapshoot but it exists because fans like us will consume anything college basketball, especially this time of year.
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10-18-2022, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyers98
It is 100% a crapshoot but it exists because fans like us will consume anything college basketball, especially this time of year.
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We should not discount the value of waving that projection around with our recruiting as well.
We aren't Duke or UNC. They can snub the talk about early season ratings, but we definitely
add another tool to our recruiting box that many other programs are accustomed to every season. Joe Lunardi has us a 5 seed. I don't know what kind of witchcraft he uses, but I'll take it .
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10-18-2022, 07:22 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer
Joe Lunardi has us a 5 seed. I don't know what kind of witchcraft he uses, but I'll take it .
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So does Torvik if we win the games he is projecting us to win. I would take a 5 seed 8 days a week.
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10-18-2022, 08:38 PM
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Originally Posted by superfan99
How do these sites come up with projections when 0 games have been played? Especially with all the transfers and incoming freshmen.
I can see the value of the advanced metrics (although I don't follow them) further into the season, but is it more than just a crapshoot right now?
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To make money.
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10-19-2022, 06:56 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2010
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Originally Posted by superfan99
How do these sites come up with projections when 0 games have been played? Especially with all the transfers and incoming freshmen.
I can see the value of the advanced metrics (although I don't follow them) further into the season, but is it more than just a crapshoot right now?
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Read Medford's post.
It goes without saying that any preseason rankings in any sport across the globe are just educated guesses.
Nobody is forcing you to put any stock in these preseason predictions. If you don't want to read about preseason predictions, then just skip this thread and wait about 2 or 3 weeks until the games actually begin.
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10-19-2022, 07:56 AM
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Major
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Originally Posted by ud2
Read Medford's post.
It goes without saying that any preseason rankings in any sport across the globe are just educated guesses.
Nobody is forcing you to put any stock in these preseason predictions. If you don't want to read about preseason predictions, then just skip this thread and wait about 2 or 3 weeks until the games actually begin.
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Unnecessarily confrontational.
I did read Medford's post, and thanked it. He posted it AFTER my question. It was a good and helpful response.
I don't see why you are jumping to the classic "nobody is forcing me" and "skip the thread" lines. I love reading about preseason predictions or anything else Flyers b-ball.
I know that Lunardi and other bracketologists are using educated guesses/predictions. The reason for my post is that I was curious how the analytics guys handled it. I thought they were using 100% numbers, so I didn't understand how they were coming up with preseason "predictions". I was asking about the difference between the "prediction" guys and the "projection" guys. It was a legitimate question.
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10-19-2022, 10:02 AM
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Excellent post Superfan.
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10-19-2022, 11:20 AM
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Colonel
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The "eye test" guys are looking at
Who do you have returning?
What did they do last year?
Was anybody injured?
How much experience do they have?
Who do you add?
What did they do at their previous stop?
How good is your coach historically?
How good is your program historically?
How tough will your conference be this year?
How has your summer gone?
Rumors? Injuries?
And come up with a rough projection.
The computer guys do the same but with numbers instead of feel.
Everybody puts slightly different weight on different factors, writers and computer guys alike.
The reality is that both groups do a pretty good job overall. Most of today's top 25 will be top 6 seeds in March. They may get a few teams wrong, and some players will surprise (good or bad), and some crucial injuries will happen, but overall they'll do pretty well.
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10-19-2022, 12:39 PM
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Colonel
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Originally Posted by sheg
The "eye test" guys are looking at
Who do you have returning?
What did they do last year?
Was anybody injured?
How much experience do they have?
Who do you add?
What did they do at their previous stop?
How good is your coach historically?
How good is your program historically?
How tough will your conference be this year?
How has your summer gone?
Rumors? Injuries?
And come up with a rough projection.
The computer guys do the same but with numbers instead of feel.
Everybody puts slightly different weight on different factors, writers and computer guys alike.
The reality is that both groups do a pretty good job overall. Most of today's top 25 will be top 6 seeds in March. They may get a few teams wrong, and some players will surprise (good or bad), and some crucial injuries will happen, but overall they'll do pretty well.
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Forecasting top 25 teams is not the issue in my mind, that is relatively easy. Where everything breaks down is when you don't have data for this season and you have to forecast a tourney field which necessarily takes into account SoS, opponents SoS, etc... I don't care how dedicated these guys are to their craft (and some are definitely more dedicated than others and/or have better methodologies), there is just no way that someone is doing a deep dive on Central New Mexico State, A&T (made up school at least I think it is), for the purposes of accurately forecasting UCLA's seed in the tourney. That top 144 seems to go on forever, yet that is 41% of the 352 Division 1 programs.
I am sure the computer guys have data sets they work with but there is just no way they know as much about CNMS, A&T, or even UD for that matter, as they know about Duke. Unlike the pros, there is a ton of turnover in college basketball every year, I have noticed that top 50 guys as rated by recruiting services are pretty accurate but much below that and it can be hit or miss. I think the new crop (and it isn't 60 guys like in the NBA), of players coming in every year and the sheer number to teams to evaluate who will potentially effect seeding/bids, make it way harder to accurately forecast the NCAA tourney. Every one of those guys will tell you, "judge me by my last projection and disregard the first."
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10-19-2022, 04:32 PM
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Colonel
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Sure, but forecasting Central New Mexico State is easy. Their five-year running average is 300+ in the NET. Absent some earth-shattering recruiting or coaching news, you project them to be 300+ again. Most likely, you'll be right within 30 spots, and if you're wrong, precisely nobody cares, unless they somehow crack the top 150, in which case everybody says "nobody saw this coming," because everybody else had them 300+ too.
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10-19-2022, 06:26 PM
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Colonel
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Originally Posted by sheg
Sure, but forecasting Central New Mexico State is easy. Their five-year running average is 300+ in the NET. Absent some earth-shattering recruiting or coaching news, you project them to be 300+ again. Most likely, you'll be right within 30 spots, and if you're wrong, precisely nobody cares, unless they somehow crack the top 150, in which case everybody says "nobody saw this coming," because everybody else had them 300+ too.
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I was using them as an example, a poor one it seems since they actually exist. My point is that until there is actually some data, probably around December these projections have little to no grounding in reality and are the best guesses of some really smart people and some people who are just fans with a website.
Don't get me wrong, I read them all. I get excited when the UD reviews are positive and mad when they are critical but once they roll the ball out, everything takes care of itself, "math is gonna math."
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