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  #1  
Old 11-20-2018, 05:35 PM
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Bracket Guessing Game

Take your best shot at what the selection committee will do. There are 5 auto bids that have not been determined yet, but for 3 conferences it’s highly likely it will be one of two teams and both get in anyway, so I’ve booked them both. In the WAC and SKY it’s less certain, but both of those will be one bid conferences this year and so I’ve just noted the conference auto-bid.

I have used figgiestats rpi. Been using it all year, and grateful it’s updated several times a day, everyday, so I’m sticking with the figster. I’ve listed the rpi in ( )s and I’ve noted a teams avca rank ahead of the team name. This is all based on the week of 11/19. I will make any changes after this week’s matches.

Finally, I’m working off the following assumption, the committee will give the only undefeated team (BYU 27-0) one of the top 4 seeds. I think it will be #4. I’ve adjusted other top teams into seeds based on rpi, avca rank and their top 25/50 performances. You may not agree. Take you’re own shot at it by quoting my bracket and then editing it as you want to simplify not having to type everything. Cut off is 5 pm EST on Sunday, Nov 25th. Good Luck.
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Old 11-20-2018, 06:09 PM
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1. #2 Stanford (1). . . . . . . . . . 2. #3 MN (2)
64. Stoney Brook (121) T. . . . . 63. Eastern MI (155)
33. CO St (39). . . . . . . . . . . . . 34. East TN St (34)
32. Pepperdine (37). . . . . . . . . .31. #24 MO (31)

17. #17 Oregon (21). . . . . . . . .18. #21 UCF (10)
48. Yale (44). . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47. FGCU (51)
49. SF Austen (45). . . . . . . . . . 50. Stamford (120)
16. #16 Marquette (15). . . . . . . 15. #13 FL (20)

9. #15 USC (8). . . . . . . . . . . . . 10. #10 Pitt (7)
56. S Dakota (109) . . . . . . . . . . 55. Howard (167)
41. St Mary’s (42) . . . . . . . . . . . 42. Duke (48)
24. Cincinnati (23) T. . . . . . . . . . 23. #18 MI (18)

25. Syracuse (27). . . . . . . . . . . . 26. Dayton (28)
40. Utah (40) T. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39. Louisville (38)
57. Green Bay (126). . . . . . . . . . .58. Navy (95)
8. #8 WI (6). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7. #7 Penn St (13)

5. #5 TX (3). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. #6 NE (11)
60. AL St (236). . . . . . . . . . . . . 59. Iona (154) T
37. #23 AZ (41). . . . . . . . . . . . . 38. KS (36)
28. TX St (24). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27. No IA (22)

21. #25 Baylor (14). . . . . . . . . . . 22. FL St (26)
44. Denver (43). . . . . . . . . . . . . 43. SC (32)
53. WAC Auto (60-69). . . . . . . . . 54. Murray St (99)
12. #20 WA St (12). . . . . . . . . . . 11. #11 KY (9)

13. #19 WA (19). . . . . . . . . . . . 14. #9 Creighton (17)
52. Hofstra (58). . . . . . . . . . . . . 51. High Point (56)
45. San Diego (47). . . . . . . . . . . .46. CO (46)
20. #14 Cal Poly (25). . . . . . . . . 19. #12 Purdue (16)

29. Rice (30). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30. TN (29)
36. UCLA (35). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35. ILL St (31)
51. SKY Auto (115-145). . . . . . . . 62. Bryant (203)
4. #1 BYU (5). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3. #4 ILL (4)

Last edited by BeckysTXA; 11-21-2018 at 09:43 AM..
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  #3  
Old 11-20-2018, 06:12 PM
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I thought this published version wouldn’t hold my spacing between the two columns. Maybe Chris can fix it before anyone quotes it to edit in their bracket. Thanks!

Also, if you want to PM your email address I can send you a spreadsheet that’s a blank worksheet in Excel.

Also the T at the end of an entry stands for extra long travel. I have 4 of those. There are some every year.

Last edited by BeckysTXA; 11-20-2018 at 06:15 PM..
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Old 11-20-2018, 07:45 PM
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If we get sent to State College again, Neil will come unglued and rightfully so. Probably Tim too.
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  #5  
Old 11-20-2018, 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
If we get sent to State College again, Neil will come unglued and rightfully so. Probably Tim too.
I know. I tried to rationalize anywhere else, but the other option is Wisconsin. Ironically I think we have a better shot at beating PSU. They aren’t as tall as WI. They aren’t as physical this year. tOSU knocked them off earlier this year. I don’t mind PSU this year. I just feel sorry for the seniors if it happens because they will have only gone to PSU for NCAAs. I don’t think that’s right. Part of this is the experience and chance to play in different places. I’m sure Russ Rose will greet Tim with, “What happened last year? We budgeted a Flyer welcome reception for you guys.”

The trip is 396 Miles - just under the 400 mile marker, so I think the team has to bus in or maybe UD picks up the flight difference so the team can fly?

I will fine-tune this after everything plays out this week, so it could change, not that my 2 cents counts anyway. Lol
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Old 11-21-2018, 09:44 AM
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I added some dots to space out the “ bracket” and make it easier to read.
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Old 11-21-2018, 11:48 AM
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I'm probably the only other one that will go through with the exercise.

I just took the top 16 RPI and made them hosts. I do not see that actually occurring. Purdue has 2 top 50 wins, but Creighton right below them had 4. As well, Washington at #19 had 7, or Oregon at #21 had 10. And I also think they'll give BYU a top 4 seed, though they were swept by Loyola Marymount last night, but I'm not sure if that could have been second-stringers playing for BYU or not.
  • #1 Stanford vs Northern Arizona, Saint Marys vs High Point
  • #2 Minnesota vs Samford, Yale vs South Dakota
  • #3 Texas vs Alabama State, Rice vs Texas Rio Grande
  • #4 Illinois vs Missouri, Washington vs Illinois State
  • #5 Wisconsin vs Green Bay, Oregon vs Northern Iowa
  • #6 BYU vs Colorado, Colorado State vs Denver
  • #7 Pittsburgh vs Bryant, Navy vs Iona
  • #8 Southern California vs San Diego, Texas State vs Cal Poly
  • #9 Kentucky vs Murray State, Cincinnati vs Louisville
  • #10 UCF vs Florida Gulf Coast, Florida vs Florida State
  • #11 Nebraska vs Kansas State, Creighton vs UCLA
  • #12 Washington State vs Pepperdine, East Tennessee State vs Kansas
  • #13 Penn State vs Howard, Hofstra vs Stony Brook
  • #14 Baylor vs Stephen F Austin, South Carolina vs Arizona
  • #15 Marquette vs Syracuse, Michigan vs Dayton
  • #16 Purdue vs Eastern Michigan, Utah vs Tennessee

9 schools from the PAC and 7 from the BIG10 makes moving teams around important.

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  #8  
Old 11-21-2018, 01:10 PM
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BYU losing last night I think changes the top 4 seeds. I’ll have to look at it from the top 25/50 performances. They won’t be ranked #1 on Monday. I don’t think the coaches really thought they were the best team, but tipped their hat to the for being undefeated. That now changes. If I’ll finished ahead of MN in the Big10 that will change the top 4 seeds.

Could be an interesting week with NCAA pairing on the line.
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Old 11-21-2018, 11:48 PM
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Navy auto-bid

Side note: Wittenberg's very successful former head volleyball coach, Paco Labrador, has led Navy to their first ever Patriot League Championship in his inaugural season at the Naval Academy.

https://navysports.com/staff.aspx?staff=430

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  #10  
Old 11-24-2018, 10:25 AM
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So much for doing an early bracket that just needs a few adjustments tomorrow for the final version. Not this year. Too many upsets will change the equations and seedlings this year.

1. BYU will not be a top 4 seed after losing to LMU 0-3 unless a Big10 blows it.
2. MN may not be a top 4 seed after barely beating tOSU 3-2 and losing to PSU 2-3. They will drop from my #2.
3. PSU might move to a top 4 seed after beating MN 3-2 and if they beat WI today. Russ Rose pulling some of his November magic again this year. If they get to a top 5 seed, UD won’t have to go to State College for the 4th time in a row.
4. Utah sat at rpi 40 last week. They are now 30 after beating CO 3-1 and USC 3-0. That’s a HUGE jump this time of year. They will also get a much easier first round match up.
5. USC will drop after losing 0-3 to Utah and 1-3 to AZ St.
6. S Car will drop after losing 0-3 to FL, 2-3 to LSU, and 1-3 to Kentucky.
7. TN beat FL 3-0.
8. IA St beat KS 0-3. ISU probably misses the dance this year. KS plays OK today.
9. ORE beats WA 3-2.
10. CAL beats WA St 3-1. Cal probably doesn’t make the dance this year.
11. WA plays WA St today.
12. ILL St plays No IA today.
13. Marquette plays Creighton today. Winner probably hosts. Loser travels.
14. ILL plays Purdue today. If ILL wins, they probably get the #2 seed. They lose and they dump my Apple cart (bracket).
15. Hawaii - a week ago they were out of the dance for the first time in 25 years, and only the second time ever. Today they could be the last team in.

Last edited by BeckysTXA; 11-24-2018 at 10:40 AM..
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Old 11-24-2018, 04:56 PM
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KS goes down in 5 to OK. They lost their last 5 matches and that might knock them out. They are certainly on the bubble. 3 losses were to teams not making the NCAAs - OK, IA St and TCU. I don’t know if they had a major player get hurt or what.

This loss also doesn’t help UDs rpi.
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Old 11-25-2018, 11:17 AM
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My top 16 seeds - all host the first weekend. (Figgiestats rpi). The selection committee will printout a current NCAA rpi to work off of, but it won’t be published until Monday unless they change past procedures. We have an updated rpi everyday of the week and twice on Sundays because of the great work of figgie and Chris. Thus I’m using the most up-to-date tool I have - figgiestats rpi.

1. Stanford (1) Easy pick.
2. TX (2) they have the #1 toughest SOS in the country. They play conference foe WVA twice - rpi 152. Everyone else on their schedule is rpi 74 or BETTER including scheduling #1 Stanford twice. They have earned the #2 seed.
3. ILL (3)
4. MN (4)
5. WI (6) if PSU had won yesterday, I would have knocked WI down and PSU up.
6. Pitt (7) only one loss to Duke all year. SOS 25
7. KY (8) SOS 9
8. BYU (9) SOS 35. Pitt, KY, BYU seeding was also dictatied by placement in the bracket and travel considerations for the first weekend and the second weekend. As far as who they will play in each quad, I would have moved all the teams with them, so it doesn’t matter for the first weekend.
9. USC (9)
10. UCF (10) I wasn’t planning to seed them 10, but in the top 16. In the end based on bracket building with travel considerations, they ended up in the 10th spot anyway. I think NE and PSU Are better teams.
11. NE (11)
12. PSU (12)
13. Creighton (13)
14. Marquette (15)
15. WA St (14)
16. No. IA (16)

I didn’t plan on following rpi so closely, but slots fell into place pretty close. With all the “upsets” this past week, the most current avca poll from last week is not accurate, so I looked at it, but didn’t factor it in much.

The next step was to place the 17-32 teams on my bracket, but I’m going to publish the bottom 16 teams in the next post.

Last edited by BeckysTXA; 11-25-2018 at 12:34 PM..
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  #13  
Old 11-25-2018, 11:48 AM
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If you are a top 12 seed, you get a first round team with an rpi of 100-235. Only exception is 6 Pitt gets 91 Navy. Then there is a big gap in rpi. I think 58 was the next highest down to 49 rpi, so the final 4 seeds get those tougher matches. I considered extreme travel to be more than halfway across the US. Based on that I only have one team with extreme travel - that’s Iona going to USC. I’m not sure they would agree considering they are leaving snowy NY headed to sunny CA. Also, when I grade my bracket against the real NCAA, I’m only going to grade the Top 50 slots. It doesn’t really matter if you send 155 Iona, 169 Howard or 101 Stony Brook out to USC. They are the #9 seed and should beat any 100 rpi team. Who gets that draw is probably based on an airline ticket contract between the NCAA and some airline. The public doesn’t have access to that info, and this isn’t about who can fly the cheapest. I know 126 Green Bay is playing 5 WI the first round because they can DRIVE. That puts Green Bay in the 60-seed slot. But slots 51-64 are all based on travel considerations and the public doesn’t have all that information, so I’m only grading the Top 50 slots.

1. Stanford (1) - So Dakota (110)
2. TX (2) - AL St (235)
3. ILL (3) - Howard (169)
4. MN (4) - E MI (153)
5. WI (6) - Green Bay (126)
6. Pitt (7) - Navy (91)
7. KY (8) - Murray St (100)
8. BYU (9) - No AZ (108)
9. USC (9) - Iona (155)
10. UCF (10) - Samford (12)
11. NE (11) - Stony Brook (101)
12. PSU (12) - Bryant (206)
13. Creighton (13) - Hofstra (58)
14. Marquette (15) - KS St (50)
15. WA St (14) - NM St (49)
16. No. IA (16) - High Point (56)

I’ll next add the second best team in each quad based on their season and results.

Last edited by BeckysTXA; 11-25-2018 at 12:34 PM..
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Old 11-25-2018, 12:09 PM
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Dayton is the second best team in their quad...and I have them going to Pitt. Cincinnati is the second best team in their quad and I have them going to PSU. Both of their placements are supported by their rpis -IF I have the Top 16 seeds placed correctly. However, travel does not favor Dayton going to Pitt. You bus in if the travel is 400 Miles or less. Dayton to PSU is 396 Miles. Dayton buses to both PSU or Pitt. However, Cincy buses to Pitt but has to fly to PSU. So does the committee send UD for the 4th NCAA in a row (4 in 5 yrs) to PSU just to save flying Cincy?

1. Stanford (1) - So Dakota (110) / Pepperdine (35)
2. TX (2) - AL St (235) / TX St (23)
3. ILL (3) - Howard (169) / ILL St (29)
4. MN (4) - E MI (153) / Utah (34)
5. WI (6) - Green Bay (126) / MO (31)
6. Pitt (7) - Navy (91) / Dayton (28)
7. KY (8) - Murray St (100) / FL St (27)
8. BYU (9) - No AZ (108) / WA (25)
9. USC (9) - Iona (155) / Cal Poly (23)
10. UCF (10) - Samford (12) / FL (18)
11. NE (11) - Stony Brook (101) / TN (26)
12. PSU (12) - Bryant (206) / Cincinnati (24)
13. Creighton (13) - Hofstra (58) / MI (21)
14. Marquette (15) - KS St (50) / Purdue (20)
15. WA St (14) - NM St (49) / Baylor (17)
16. No. IA (16) - High Point (56) / ORE (19)

Last edited by BeckysTXA; 11-25-2018 at 12:22 PM..
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Old 11-25-2018, 12:17 PM
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And the final teams - 3rd best teams in the quads

1. Stanford (1) - So Dakota (110) / Pepperdine (35) - SF Austin (42)
2. TX (2) - AL St (235) / TX St (23) - Rice (30)
3. ILL (3) - Howard (169) / ILL St (29) - E TN St (33)
4. MN (4) - E MI (153) / Utah (34) - Syracuse (36)
5. WI (6) - Green Bay (126) / MO (31) - CO St (38)
6. Pitt (7) - Navy (91) / Dayton (28) - Louisville (37)
7. KY (8) - Murray St (100) / FL St (27) - So Car (32)
8. BYU (9) - No AZ (108) / WA (25) - Denver (40)
9. USC (9) - Iona (155) / Cal Poly (23) - St Mary’s (43)
10. UCF (10) - Samford (12) / FL (18) - FGCU (47)
11. NE (11) - Stony Brook (101) / TN (26) - AZ (39)
12. PSU (12) - Bryant (206) / Cincinnati (24) - Yale (41)
13. Creighton (13) - Hofstra (58) / MI (21) - UCLA (45)
14. Marquette (15) - KS St (50) / Purdue (20) - Duke (44)
15. WA St (14) - NM St (49) / Baylor (17) - Hawaii (46)
16. No. IA (16) - High Point (56) / ORE (19) - KS (48)
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  #16  
Old 11-25-2018, 12:33 PM
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The team most out of position based on rpi vs seeding slot is TX St. they have an rpi of 23 and are unofficially the 31 seed. As a 23 seed you would play the 42 seed. They are playing the 34th seed and rpi 30 Rice.

The next worst is S Car with an rpi of 32 placed in the 39th seed and playing rpi 27 FL St in the 26th seed.

I ended up doing 4 brackets throughout the week and learned things each time. It was a good exercise to better understand what I think the process is. We will see how close my Top 50 are. I’m sure there is much more to learn.
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Old 11-25-2018, 12:55 PM
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Last in - first out...

It came down to the following

Rpi, team, record, Top 25, Top 50, SOS

48 KS. 15-12 / 2-3 / 3-5 / 30
50 KS St. 15-12 / 1-4 / 5-4 / 26
51 CO. 18-13 / 2-8 / 5-11 / 48

I had KS St in first better SOS. Better Top 50. Same record as KS.

Came down to KS and CO for the last spot. The committee has a history of jumping PAC 12 teams in this position over weaker conferences. Plus KS has lost their last 5 matches. (I do not know if they had a late injury to a key player?) But it came down to SOS for me. CO is in one of the top 2 toughest conferences. They played twice as many top 50 teams because of that. They have a better overall record than KS. But their SOS is 48 vs 30 for KS. That tells me they did nothing impressive in their Out of Conference - they simply schedule teams they could beat. That cost CO an invite in my opinion.

KS last in.
CO first out.
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jack72 (11-25-2018)
  #18  
Old 11-25-2018, 08:20 PM
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NCAA tweeted out the first 4 seeded teams in alphabetical order - it was my original 4 BYU, ILL, MN, and Stanford.

That means TX will be the 5 seed. I feel for TX. They could not have done anything more with their scheduling. They should be hosting a regional and they are not.

So far my original bracket is looking better than my final. We will see how it plays out.
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