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  #1  
Old 03-13-2017, 11:15 AM
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NCAA Seeds vs BracketMatrix Averages

I was going to add this to the "seeding matters" thread, but decided to start a new one instead. I pulled the data from BracketMatrix.com where they average a ton of "bracketology" guesses and track who does the best over time. Many are familiar with it. I wanted to do some quick analysis around the deltas between what the typical bracketologist was thinking vs what the selection committee actually did. I simply calculated the difference between the actual seed and what the bracketmatrix average was projecting. I show the Top 5 and Bottom 5 below. I see some trends in the data, but am interested in what other people think. I am crunching the data to show the range for opponents and will post that later.

Code:

2017 NCAA Seed vs BracketMatrix.com's Average Seed 
----------|----------------|---------------|--------------|----------------|
SEED             TEAM             CONF         Ave SEED     DIFF (Seed-Ave)
----------|----------------|---------------|--------------|----------------|
TOP 5
 8             Wisconsin        Big Ten           6.11           +1.89
10           Wichita State  Missouri Valley       8.31           +1.69
10          Oklahoma State      Big 12            8.93           +1.07
10               VCU          Atlantic 10         9.03           +0.97
12         Middle Tennessee      CUSA            11.04           +0.96 
----------|----------------|---------------|--------------|----------------|
BOTTOM 5
 9            Vanderbilt          SEC            10.07           -1.07
 6             Maryland         Big Ten           7.12           -1.12
 9           Michigan State     Big Ten          10.18           -1.18
 7              Dayton         Atlantic 10        8.36           -1.36
 7           South Carolina       SEC             8.95           -1.95
 ----------|----------------|---------------|--------------|----------------|


Of course, the easiest thing to see for Flyer Fans is that the committee pitted the team that got bumped the 2nd most with the team that got dropped the 2nd most.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:57 PM
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Here is the matchup data that I promised. It essentially calculates the absolute value of the difference between the two team's DIFF data in the original post. In other words, the larger the DELTA value, the larger the gap between where the bracketologists thought the 2 teams would be seeded and where they actually were seeded.

Someone in the committee doesn't like the Shockers, the Flyers or both.

Code:

2017 NCAA Seed vs BracketMatrix.com's Average Seed DELTA Between Opponents
------|-----------------------|------|-------------------------|--------------|
SEED           TEAM             SEED         TEAM                   DELTA 
------|-----------------------|------|-------------------------|--------------|
  10        Wichita State         7         Dayton                  3.05
  12        Middle Tennessee      5         Minnesota               1.99
  11        Xavier                6         Maryland                1.86
  10        Marquette             7         South Carolina          1.83
   5        Notre Dame           12         Princeton               1.44
  13        Vermont               4         Purdue                  1.40
   8        Wisconsin             9         Virginia Tech           1.32
   8        Miami (FLA.)          9         Michigan State          1.23
  16        Texas Southern        1         North Carolina          1.20
   6        SMU                  11         Providence/USC          0.87
   8        Arkansas              9         Seton Hall              0.84
   6        Cincinnati           11         K-State/W. Forest       0.78
  11        Rhode Island          6         Creighton               0.77
   3        UCLA                 14         Kent State              0.76
  15        Northern Kentucky     2         Kentucky                0.69
   2        Duke                 15         Troy                    0.68
  10        VCU                   7         St. Mary's (CA)         0.65
  10        Oklahoma State        7         Michigan                0.53
   4        Butler               13         Winthrop                0.50
   3        Oregon               14         Iona                    0.41
  12        Nevada                5         Iowa State              0.39
  14        New Mexico State      3         Baylor                  0.36
  14        Florida Gulf Coast    3         Florida State           0.28
  16        South Dakota State    1         Gonzaga                 0.25
   8        Northwestern          9         Vanderbilt              0.24
  15        Jacksonville State    2         Louisville              0.21
   2        Arizona              15         North Dakota            0.20
   4        Florida              13         E. Tennessee State      0.18
   1        Kansas               16         NC Central/UC Davis     0.17
  13        Bucknell              4         West Virginia           0.09
   1        Villanova            16         N. Orleans/MSM          0.08
  12        NC-Wilmington         5         Virginia                0.02
------|-----------------------|------|-------------------------|--------------|
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  #3  
Old 03-13-2017, 04:23 PM
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Ken Pom Rankings

favor Wichita St big time. WSU is 8th and Dayton is 36th. Wichita St is better at both ends of the court.
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:16 PM
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According to Kenpom, Dayton is the third best team they'll have played. They lost to the best, second best, and fourth best, and are 2-1 against the 5th best.
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Alberto Strasse View Post
Ken Pom favor Wichita St big time. WSU is 8th and Dayton is 36th. Wichita St is better at both ends of the court.

The best part is that if Dayton wins, Ken Pom will define that as "luck." Apparently that's how he classifies outcomes that differ from his projections. His numbers were not wrong, of course, the team was just lucky.
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  #6  
Old 03-13-2017, 08:18 PM
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Good article from kenpom about Illinois State.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports...ools_like.html
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  #7  
Old 03-14-2017, 08:50 AM
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Bracket guessers on Yahoo are taking the KenPom data to heart:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/who-are...232437971.html

Most popular Round of 64 upset pick by a double digit seed: No. 10 Wichita State over No. 7 Dayton (64.6 percent)

My take: Not only is this not an upset according to oddsmakers, Wichita State actually opened as a 6.5-point favorite despite being the lesser-seeded team. Historically undervalued by the selection committee, the Shockers have won nine NCAA tournament games the past four years despite being seeded better than seventh only once. They deserved better than a No. 10 seed this year after winning 20 of 21 Valley games by an average of 21.5 points apiece.
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