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Old 07-06-2020, 02:01 PM
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Electoral College

The Supreme Court voted 9-0 to uphold the Electoral College and that delegates are required to vote for the winner of the popular vote of their respective states.
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Old 07-06-2020, 02:11 PM
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
The Supreme Court voted 9-0 to uphold the Electoral College and that delegates are required to vote for the winner of the popular vote of their respective states.
My understanding is that it is a bit more nuanced than this (caveat that I haven't read the opinion, just a summary) - states are able to use law to enforce how electors should vote. But it depends on the state law. If state law just penalizes a faithless elector, it wouldn't necessarily prohibit their different vote, they would just be penalized (e.g. $1,000 fine). Or if a state has nothing on the books, then you can still have a faithless elector.
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Old 07-06-2020, 04:16 PM
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Old 07-06-2020, 04:52 PM
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Arent there a couple states (Maine?) where the electoral votes get split by the popular percentage...in other words its not winner take all?
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Old 07-06-2020, 05:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Arent there a couple states (Maine?) where the electoral votes get split by the popular percentage...in other words its not winner take all?
I am not 100% sure, but it looks like only Maine and Nebraska do that.

Maine has 4 ev's: 2 to the state popular vote winner and 1 each to 2 congressional districts.

Nebraska has 5: 2 to the state popular vote winner and 1 each to 3 congressional districts.

Trump got 1 ev in Maine and swept NE.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016...sults_by_state
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Old 07-13-2020, 09:23 PM
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Read some speculation that the recent SCOTUS ruling on the ec requiring delegates to vote according to a state's wishes may allow a state to require delegates to vote for the national popular vote winner. States having altogether around 125 ev's already are in support of electing the national popular vote winner.

Last edited by ud2; 07-13-2020 at 10:04 PM..
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Old 07-13-2020, 11:06 PM
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Imagine people in Montana knowing their voting block basically went to elect Joe Biden, or people in California knowing all their votes went to help elect Donald Trump for a second term.

If the state electoral voters all vote for the national popular vote winner, the electoral college becomes redundant and irrelevant. The USA unlike most countries has a diversity of geography, lifestyle, and temperance that shares little in common with the neighboring places. Each of these areas must have their own small but important collective voice heard. Nowhere else do they have people living in the arid desert, under coconut trees and mangroves, near 14,000-foot peaks, in massive corn and bean fields, near gator-infested swamplands, above the Arctic Circle, south of the Tropic of Cancer, in massive urban cities, grassland prairies, tornado alley, hurricane alley, earthquake fault lines, large rain forests, drives trucks for a living, ride horses and round up cattle for a living, work in cubicles, work on an 1,100ft floating runway in the sea, worship Jesus, worship Allah, worship the Flying Spaghetti Monster, worship nothing, all at the same time under one unifying national umbrella. Nor do it with the ethnic and cultural diversity that the USA must do it with.

The Electoral College is the celebration of diversity and multiculturalism. Removing it is in a large way wholly bigoted and tone-deaf to those realities.
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Old 07-20-2020, 03:33 PM
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Chris Wallace tells Trump that Biden is leading 49% to 41% in a new Fox poll...Trump says that it is a fake poll...Trump says that some poll(s) only sample(s) 22% Republicans.

So, we will see. I do agree with Trump that some of these polls significantly undersample Republicans. IIRC, the %'s of the electorate are around 30% GOP, 30% Dem, and 40% Independent.

If Trump wins, and the polls had him way behind going into Election Day, the polling industry will lose all credibility.

Last edited by ud2; 07-20-2020 at 03:37 PM..
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Old 07-20-2020, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Chris Wallace tells Trump that Biden is leading 49% to 41% in a new Fox poll...Trump says that it is a fake poll...Trump says that some poll(s) only sample(s) 22% Republicans.

So, we will see. I do agree with Trump that some of these polls significantly undersample Republicans. IIRC, the %'s of the electorate are around 30% GOP, 30% Dem, and 40% Independent.

If Trump wins, and the polls had him way behind going into Election Day, the polling industry will lose all credibility.
It lost all credibility a long time ago. Just ask President Hillary Clinton.
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Old 07-20-2020, 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
It lost all credibility a long time ago. Just ask President Hillary Clinton.
Why do you all keep saying that? The total vote numbers came in almost EXACTLY as the polls indicated.

The polls are much less valuable when predicting states-there were a lot of states (Wisconsin, Michigan, PA) that were within margin of error, so were too close to actually call one way or another. All 3 of those fell to Trump.
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Old 07-20-2020, 04:12 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Chris Wallace tells Trump that Biden is leading 49% to 41% in a new Fox poll...Trump says that it is a fake poll...Trump says that some poll(s) only sample(s) 22% Republicans.

So, we will see. I do agree with Trump that some of these polls significantly undersample Republicans. IIRC, the %'s of the electorate are around 30% GOP, 30% Dem, and 40% Independent.

If Trump wins, and the polls had him way behind going into Election Day, the polling industry will lose all credibility.
This is important. The expectation question is far more accurate in predicting an election outcome. https://spectator.org/why-the-polls-...rump-will-win/
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Old 07-20-2020, 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
Why do you all keep saying that? The total vote numbers came in almost EXACTLY as the polls indicated.

The polls are much less valuable when predicting states-there were a lot of states (Wisconsin, Michigan, PA) that were within margin of error, so were too close to actually call one way or another. All 3 of those fell to Trump.
The state polls were terrible. Here in Ohio the pollsters had it a 1-2 point race and Trump won by 8. These alleged experts gave Clinton a 90% chance of being elected. How did that work out? As I cited above look to the polls of who is “expected” to win as a better predictor.
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Old 07-20-2020, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
The state polls were terrible. Here in Ohio the pollsters had it a 1-2 point race and Trump won by 8. These alleged experts gave Clinton a 90% chance of being elected. How did that work out? As I cited above look to the polls of who is “expected” to win as a better predictor.
The national polls (which are essentially meaningless in the grand scheme) only show the total electorate polling. These are reasonably accurate, but again, not terribly useful.

Ohio sounds like it was outside the margin of error (usually about 4%). However, 1-2 points would definitely have had Ohio in the too close to call category leading into election day. It shouldn't have been, but I think that is a factor of the smaller sampling size when doing state polls vs. national polls. They are bound to be less accurate.
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Old 07-20-2020, 05:19 PM
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"The electoral College is a great Ivy league school"- Joe Biden, sometime in the near future.
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Old 07-20-2020, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
The national polls (which are essentially meaningless in the grand scheme) only show the total electorate polling. These are reasonably accurate, but again, not terribly useful.

Ohio sounds like it was outside the margin of error (usually about 4%). However, 1-2 points would definitely have had Ohio in the too close to call category leading into election day. It shouldn't have been, but I think that is a factor of the smaller sampling size when doing state polls vs. national polls. They are bound to be less accurate.
Bingo. State polls are indeed less accurate because of many factors, including sampling. That’s why it’s useless to use these national polls because we have the electoral college.
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Old 07-20-2020, 11:27 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
Why do you all keep saying that? The total vote numbers came in almost EXACTLY as the polls indicated.

The polls are much less valuable when predicting states-there were a lot of states (Wisconsin, Michigan, PA) that were within margin of error, so were too close to actually call one way or another. All 3 of those fell to Trump.
Issue is the polls are "likely" voters.

With that said, whichever base shows up to the polls totally flips the likely voters if one party doesn't show up the day of. This is very likely with Biden....especially if a third candidate gets in the ring a pulls a Perot.
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Old 07-22-2020, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
This is important. The expectation question is far more accurate in predicting an election outcome. https://spectator.org/why-the-polls-...rump-will-win/
Good read...I am skeptical though...if expectation polling was so predictive, then why isn't it a bigger deal?
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Old 07-22-2020, 12:50 PM
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I don't know why news organizations still even bother reporting on a national poll. It's meaningless. Just focus on the battleground states. Biden has already won CA and NY. Safe to say Biden is up 84-0 right now.
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Old 07-22-2020, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
I don't know why news organizations still even bother reporting on a national poll. It's meaningless. Just focus on the battleground states. Biden has already won CA and NY. Safe to say Biden is up 84-0 right now.
They focus on whatever makes it look like Trump will lose. They want to dishearten Trump voters. It's a form of voter suppression.
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Old 07-23-2020, 09:05 AM
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Survey shows 62% of Republicans are afraid to express a political opinion.
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Old 07-23-2020, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
They focus on whatever makes it look like Trump will lose. They want to dishearten Trump voters. It's a form of voter suppression.
The "spin/misinformation/political cherry picking of stories" by the media is so blatant now, that I am not sure it has the desired effect anymore. It definitely has made the far left crazies bolder.

After years of the leftist media outlets suggesting that 1/2 of the country is racist for wanting smaller government, lower taxes, less spending, etc, etc, I think it ****es a lot of voters off and makes them dig their heels in. People don't like being intimidated into going along with a more socialist form of government.

However, I am concerned about what it does to our children. The bombardment of misinformation on them is more effective. They tend to believe adults and what is presented as "the news". They have not yet grasped how politically corrupt and calculated the message from the media is yet. And there is an attack on history that makes them believe that America is evil. The school system pushes that these days. I'm afraid of the political messages that my kids pick up from the politics in the school room.
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Old 07-23-2020, 09:39 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Survey shows 62% of Republicans are afraid to express a political opinion.
Michigan school teacher fired, he advocated on social media for reopening schools, which went against the administration's position, will have to see how this plays out. It may have been because he supported Trump on social media.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...es/5481014002/

Last edited by ud2; 07-23-2020 at 09:43 AM..
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