First 2015-16 Bracketology - UD's a 10-seed

[rollo]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

No way we're a 10...

[Fudd]

Originally Posted by rollo http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology No way we're a 10...

Just Pollard playing solo, 1 vs 5, is an eight seed.

[San Diego Flyer]

A10 with two teams in? wtf!

[CE80]

Is there a place to bet over/under on the seed? I sure as heck will take the under on a 10 seed.
Posted via Mobile Device

[ruechalgrin]

Jeff Goodman listed Vandy as well as Dayton as 2 of 3 teams that are better than you think. He wrote about Dayton "I'll hitch my wagon to Archie Miller any day. The Flyers lost Jordan Sibert, but have depth and size now with 7-footer Steve McElvene."

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer A10 with two teams in? wtf!

Unfortunately, based upon our schedule both OOC and A-10, it is probably an accurate seed as we have no margin for error. I would actually put us in at an 11. This does not reflect how good the team will be, but reflects our lack of opportunities for top 50 wins.

The only teams we will play that are in the 2015-2016 bracket according to Joe Lunardi are: (1) Rhode Island an 11 seed who is in the first four; (2) Arkansas an 11 seed who is in the first four; and (3) Vandy a 9 seed. I think we split with Rhode Island, beat Arkansas, and lose @Vandy so we go 2-2 versus the field which is pretty similar to our 2-3 in 2014-2015.*

The good news is Iowa is next four out and if we beat them in 2015-2016, we likely play Notre Dame who is a #5 seed, and then either Xavier #9 seed or Wichita St. #3. Let's assume Iowa makes the field, we beat them, and split the final 2 games versus tourney teams. All of the sudden we are 4-3 versus the field which gets us a better seed than a 10, probably an 8 or 9.

I know I keep harping on this, but we absolutely need to beat Iowa, it is almost a must win. If we lose to Iowa (and let's assume they make the NCAA), we have almost no margin for error and are looking at 2-3 versus the field which is what we were in 2015 and we are probably sweating whether we get in.

Our inability to schedule a tough OOC (not blaming the Athletic Department) and the weakness of the A-10 make it extremely difficult to get higher than a 9 seed. So we will perpetually be on the bubble. Since 1984, we have been in the NCAA 9x and had only 2003 we had better than a 9 seed where we were a 4, the rest of the times we were a 9 (1x), 10 (2x), 11 (4x), or 12 (1x) seed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dayton...27s_basketball

*For 2014-2015, (1) we lost to a 5 Arkansas; (2) lost to a 10 seed Davidson; (3) beat a first four 11 seed Ole Miss; and (4) beat/lost to a 7 seed VCU. So we were 2-3 versus the field of 68.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[DGO67]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin Unfortunately, based upon our schedule both OOC and A-10, it is probably an accurate seed as we have no margin for error. I would actually put us in at an 11. This does not reflect how good the team will be, but reflects our lack of opportunities for top 50 wins. The only teams we will play that are in the 2015-2016 bracket according to Joe Lunardi are: (1) Rhode Island an 11 seed who is in the first four; (2) Arkansas an 11 seed who is in the first four; and (3) Vandy a 9 seed. I think we split with Rhode Island, beat Arkansas, and lose @Vandy so we go 2-2 versus the field which is pretty similar to our 2-3 in 2014-2015.* The good news is Iowa is next four out and if we beat them in 2015-2016, we likely play Notre Dame who is a #5 seed, and then either Xavier #9 seed or Wichita St. #3. Let's assume Iowa makes the field, we beat them, and split the final 2 games versus tourney teams. All of the sudden we are 4-3 versus the field which gets us a better seed than a 10, probably an 8 or 9. I know I keep harping on this, but we absolutely need to beat Iowa, it is almost a must win. If we lose to Iowa (and let's assume they make the NCAA), we have almost no margin for error and are looking at 2-3 versus the field which is what we were in 2015 and we are probably sweating whether we get in. Our inability to schedule a tough OOC (not blaming the Athletic Department) and the weakness of the A-10 make it extremely difficult to get higher than a 9 seed. So we will perpetually be on the bubble. Since 1984, we have been in the NCAA 9x and had only 2003 we had better than a 9 seed where we were a 4, the rest of the times we were a 9 (1x), 10 (2x), 11 (4x), or 12 (1x) seed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dayton...27s_basketball *For 2014-2015, (1) we lost to a 5 Arkansas; (2) lost to a 10 seed Davidson; (3) beat a first four 11 seed Ole Miss; and (4) beat/lost to a 7 seed VCU. So we were 2-3 versus the field of 68.

Getting an 8 or 9 seed would be worrisome!

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[Chris R]

10, 12, 11, 4, 10, 11, 11, 11.

I think those are the seeds going back to 1984. There's a lesson there.

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by Chris R 10, 12, 11, 4, 10, 11, 11, 11. I think those are the seeds going back to 1984. There's a lesson there.

Chris, agree with your point. Jus a nit, I think you missed the #9 seed in 1985.

NCAA Tournament seeding history
The NCAA began seeding the tournament with the 1979 edition.

Years → '84 '85 '90 '00 '03 '04 '09 '14 '15
Seeds 10 9 12 11 4 10 11 11 11

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dayton...27s_basketball

[m21eagle45]

If we are not a 4, 5, or 6 (Which I doubt we will be unless we win the Orlando Classic and the A-10) I would rather be an 11, 12, or 13 seed. I want to avoid the top 2 seeds as long as possible in the tourney.

[NCkevi]

I know the bracket will look nothing like this by March, but if he thinks UD will be a 10 seed he should have put us in the Midwest vs. NC State because as much as they deny it, you know the NCAA likes a good storyline in the match-ups

[Fudd]

Originally Posted by Chris R 10, 12, 11, 4, 10, 11, 11, 11. I think those are the seeds going back to 1984. There's a lesson there.

But last years selection committee was on crack. Nobody had us getting into the field as the last team except the committee and some select X fans posting from their mothers basements.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin Our inability to schedule a tough OOC (not blaming the Athletic Department)...

I, myself, am VERY CLEARLY blaming the Athletic Department.


I can believe a 10 seed or worse, they are going to have to really kick butt in the A10 if they lose to Iowa.

[San Diego Flyer]

Originally Posted by Chris R 10, 12, 11, 4, 10, 11, 11, 11. I think those are the seeds going back to 1984. There's a lesson there.

I hope no one recalls our performance as a 4 seed in Spokane.

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by Fudd But last years selection committee was on crack. Nobody had us getting into the field as the last team except the committee and some select X fans posting from their mothers basements.

The committee was consistent in using the same criteria and UD should have been last two in or last two out. They were consistent and fair.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I disagree with the criteria the committee uses, but it is what it is.

With all due respect Fudd, I think it is conventional wisdom that the committee wronged us and was on crack. We were 2-3 versus RPI top 50 on Selection Sunday (wins @VCU and Ole Miss, losses @Davidson, @Arkansas, andNeutral VCU). I think we had the least amount of top 50 wins of any at-large team on Selection Sunday. Again, I disagree with the committee's criteria and focus on top 50 games, but it is what it is.

[Fudd]

It's been a while since we only had two A10 teams in the NCAA tournament hasn't it? Even in the very down year that we had last year, we had 3 teams in. Does anyone think the A10 will be weaker than last year in this upcoming year?

[Fudd]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin The committee was consistent in using the same criteria and UD should have been last two in or last two out. They were consistent and fair. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm I disagree with the criteria the committee uses, but it is what it is. With all due respect Fudd, I think it is conventional wisdom that the committee wronged us and was on crack. We were 2-3 versus RPI top 50 on Selection Sunday (wins @VCU and Ole Miss, losses @Davidson, @Arkansas, andNeutral VCU). I think we had the least amount of top 50 wins of any at-large team on Selection Sunday. Again, I disagree with the committee's criteria and focus on top 50 games, but it is what it is.

Why was their decision on UD's place in the tournament such a departure from every other prognosticator out there in the media? They choose to emphasize a different metric each year.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin The committee was consistent in using the same criteria and UD should have been last two in or last two out. They were consistent and fair. With all due respect Fudd, I think it is conventional wisdom that the committee wronged us and was on crack.

Agree, UD did not get jobbed last year, rpi 33 and SOS 93 is major bubble territory.

The Dance Card had it right, everybody else was wrong.

[ruechalgrin]

Originally Posted by Fudd Why was their decision on UD's place in the tournament such a departure from every other prognosticator out there in the media? They choose to emphasize a different metric each year.

Fudd, dance card methodology has used the same criteria for 14 years -- it is what they believe the committee has used and is unbiased in that it is an algorithm with no human bias. The prognosticators and media have human bias and change their views based upon conventional wisdom.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

The committee has been consistent. Using dance card which measures consistency, they are 143/146 the last 4 years for at-large teams (I don't have boise state and dayton in and colorado state and miami out as misses). If the committee would have simply used the algorithm, they would have come to 98% of the same conclusions and only made 3 different choices in 4 years. That is amazingly consistent. The Committee IS NOT using different metrics.

We at UD simply don't like the criteria they use. And I think the criteria is awful and massively benefits teams like Texas who can go 3-12 in top 50 games with half of them at home, but get in because they won 3 top 50 games. Give Dayton 15 top 50 games with half at home and UD would win at least 7. But the criteria is what it is.

[UD62]

Originally Posted by ud2 I, myself, am VERY CLEARLY blaming the Athletic Department. I can believe a 10 seed or worse, they are going to have to really kick butt in the A10 if they lose to Iowa.

Give it a rest, nothing but criticism from you. As I recall we have done fairly well the last few years with the athletic department we have. You take a bracket projection that isn't worth spit and take it as gospel because it fits your opinion of the program and their ability to schedule. I know, play another away game (with Miami no less) and our "troubles " will be over.

[NCkevi]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin The committee has been consistent. Using dance card which measures consistency, they are 143/146 the last 4 years for at-large teams (I don't have boise state and dayton in and colorado state and miami out as misses). If the committee would have simply used the algorithm, they would have come to 98% of the same conclusions and only made 3 different choices in 4 years. That is amazingly consistent. The Committee IS NOT using different metrics. We at UD simply don't like the criteria they use.

If they use the Dance Card algorithum consistantly than I can see them being off a seed line or two; but there should be no wide variations such as a UCLA having a .07% chance of a bid not only making the tournament, but avoiding the 1st round and a Temple being 100% in not making it. They obviously deviated from the algorithum for some reason in those cases so they are using their own metrics on a case by case basis when they see fit

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by UD62 Give it a rest, nothing but criticism from you. As I recall we have done fairly well the last few years with the athletic department we have. You take a bracket projection that isn't worth spit and take it as gospel because it fits your opinion of the program and their ability to schedule. I know, play another away game (with Miami no less) and our "troubles " will be over.

Agree, I'll back off, but I just can't believe they scheduled ONE true road game after the SOS was such a major issue last year. SMH

[bcross]

Only 1 Top-50 RPI win, and a 200+ RPI loss had as much to do with us being barely in as anything.

[CE80]

I forget. Did we get in the NCAA tourney last year? Did we win any games?

[UDTradition]

Their process is simple. Run the numbers then see the results. If the results don't make sense to them (based upon their 100+ years of experience) then they use their gut to determine the final few invitees. Basically, they decide if they can live with the analytical results. If they can't then they change to order of things. Sounds like a solid approach...we're ticked off because we were part of the intuition phase.

I think we were fortunate to make the tournament based upon their criteria (albeit subjective). Our strength of schedule was anemic and it is clear that our administration favors a gaudy record over away losses. In the future we need to adopt the Temple philosophy...if you reply please use their past body of evidence...not last year.

I'd rather lose to the best then beat 250 RPI. If we make the tournament by beating some of the best then I'm very happy. If we don't make the tournament...then that is fine too. It makes for a great season if you play against top teams.

Playing and beating 200+teams is a coward's approach and clearly results in a first round game or worse.

Just my opinion.......

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[Chris R]

^^ and that's a perfectly fine position to take. However, are you prepared to let the UD womens basketball program, volleyball program, soccer programs, and other championship/NCAA tourney level programs become perennial middle-of-the-pack A10 programs in order for mens basketball to shave 2-3 games off their home schedule every year and all the proceeds that go with it, in order to play more road games against those teams you cite. Good, bad, or indifferent, mens basketball makes the UD athletic department tick. And by tick I mean the most competitive and most successful in the entire Atlantic10. Are you willing to part with that. Maybe you are which is fine.

And keep in mind, those teams you'd like UD to play must want to play UD as much or more than UD wants to play them. I have never seen any evidence to suggest that is the case. Temple has a recent basketball history (last 20yrs) that quite honestly shames much of what Dayton has done. They may be more marketable from a "profile game" standpoint. And, Temple has never had strong home attendance, thereby foregoing home games in exchange for road games costs a program like Temple far less than a school like Dayton. When you eliminate 35,000 ticket sales for 3 home games rather than 10,000 or 15,000 ticket sales to home games, that's a big difference. Im not sure its apples and oranges.

Temple also plays FBS football. Even the awful teams are finding it worth their time and money to keep playing it. If it was such a financial hole, the entire MAC would have disbanded football 20yrs ago. Some night there are 750 people in the stands for a Tuesday night BGSU vs. Kent State game. The fact that these teams continue to choose to field 85 scholarship athletes, run a football stadium, travel, train, house, and feed these beefcakes tells me all I need to know about whether they think being lousy and with no fan base for football is better than a life without football altogether.

Every action has an equal an opposite reaction when it comes to scheduling. Im not objecting to the different directions fans suggest. But its worth reminding fans that every choice comes with a price and are fans truly prepared to pay that price -- either in actual dollars, overall athletic department competitiveness, student-athlete welfare, university mission, etc. You simply cannot move a domino in this topic and not expect other dominoes on the table to be entirely unaffected.

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[ud2]

Creighton, while in the MVC, was following UD's 16/14 model, VCU, Xavier, and Butler were doing at least 15 away/neutral in the CAA, A10, and Horizon League.

Just get into the BE, and this becomes a dead issue, UD can play 16/14 or 17/13 at that point, and it won't matter, the league will take care of the SOS.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[springborofan]

Now Chris, you are taking the argument to the extreme to make your point. No one is suggesting that UD lop off 3 buy games and start the new and improved UD road show. 1 additional game on the road vs 1 buy game against a 200+RPI is what I believe UD2 is suggesting. I get your point that you need a willing participant but I'm not convinced that UD is even trying. They have a scheduling model and fit games to the model as best as possible.

Although I won't continue posting about it, I agree that UD should reconsider the current model. Creativity is in order. Drop 3 buy games against 200+ teams and play 3 2-1 series with teams like Murray St., Indiana St, Belmont, etc. Play a true road game against a UK or Duke that ESPN picks up. Yes, the athletic dept. loses some revenue but if it helps get UD in the tourney, the $ from that more than covers the delta.

[UDDoug]

Playing more road games isn't necessarily the answer. Playing a 51-100 RPI team on the road most definitely is not the panacea. If you add two of those, and you lose both, you can say welcome to the NIT.

The road/neutral/away mix has far less to do with it than record against top 50, losses to sub 100. Playing one way games against top 50 to build SOS and losing them won't get a team outside the Power 5 an NCAA bid.

Dayton isn't on the bubble last year if they don't get drubbed at Duquesne or lose at LaSalle when wins get the regular season conference championship. Playing two more of those games actually makes it more likely they get left out.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by springborofan Now Chris, you are taking the argument to the extreme to make your point. No one is suggesting that UD lop off 3 buy games and start the new and improved UD road show. 1 additional game on the road vs 1 buy game against a 200+RPI is what I believe UD2 is suggesting. I get your point that you need a willing participant but I'm not convinced that UD is even trying. They have a scheduling model and fit games to the model as best as possible. Although I won't continue posting about it, I agree that UD should reconsider the current model. Creativity is in order. Drop 3 buy games against 200+ teams and play 3 2-1 series with teams like Murray St., Indiana St, Belmont, etc. Play a true road game against a UK or Duke that ESPN picks up. Yes, the athletic dept. loses some revenue but if it helps get UD in the tourney, the $ from that more than covers the delta.

Yes, that is what I'm advocating, one more home and home series vs. a good but still beatable opponent and one less buy game...yes, I'm not convinced that UD is even trying...yes, more NCAA tournament appearances make up for the lost revenue. Agree with you on all fronts.

Originally Posted by UDDoug Playing more road games isn't necessarily the answer. Playing a 51-100 RPI team on the road most definitely is not the panacea. If you add two of those, and you lose both, you can say welcome to the NIT. The road/neutral/away mix has far less to do with it than record against top 50, losses to sub 100. Playing one way games against top 50 to build SOS and losing them won't get a team outside the Power 5 an NCAA bid. Dayton isn't on the bubble last year if they don't get drubbed at Duquesne or lose at LaSalle when wins get the regular season conference championship. Playing two more of those games actually makes it more likely they get left out.

What is wrong with a home and home series with #51-100? But, yes, you have to win your fair share of those games.

Duquesne was fatigue I believe...LaSalle was decent I believe...you will lose league games at times, those losses happen to everyone...unexpected league losses are why the OOC SOS has to get better.

The only way to get more rpi top 50/top 100 games is via more home and home series.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

[jack72]

Picking brackets this early is a joke. We can feel bad about a 10 seed, but how about Davidson fans, who are snubbed completely?

[UDDoug]

Originally Posted by ud2 What is wrong with a home and home series with #51-100? But, yes, you have to win your fair share of those games.

There is nothing wrong with it. But if you are going to argue that not playing those series might keep you out of the NCAA because SOS is weaker, you have to acknowledge that playing it AND losing is just as, or even more likely, to keep you out.

There is no panacea because SOS might keep you out, losing against a stronger schedule might keep you out, not playing enough road games might keep you out, losing road games might keep you out. Remind me how the SOS helped get Temple a bid last year?

That's my point - you can play it either way. But the only way that leads to a bid outside the Power 5 is to win enough nonconference games, win enough conference games. If they want a reason to keep you out, they will find one. If your point is play a higher ranked schedule, play more road games, AND win just as many then I agree, you will be more certain of a bid. I'm just not so certain all of those ifs come together very often.

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[ud2]

FWIW, Creighton, in the MVC, followed UD's model...gaudy record with a weaker schedule...their rpi was consistently in the 20's, and their SOS was consistently 80/90/100/110+...only 5 or so losses every year...so that approach does work, but you have to keep the losses to a minimum or else you won't get a bid.

[OSU Flyer]

Give me 2 road games every year, an exempt tourney and dump Miami series I'd be happy

the SOS and the RPI are nice but I think a road win or marquee victory is really what holds weight. I'm almost a certain a road win over VCU got us in the tourney

[NJFlyr71]

I say again. One road game here, or one 50-100 rpi home game there ...

you guys are talking as if a slight change or added spice to the recipe is what UD needs is all wrong. WRONG I tell you

The ONLY recipe you need to consider is the P5 recipe. If you got a P5 recipe your chances are greatly improved. If not then these slight tweaks being discussed are just that ... slight to no material affect. Makes you feel better great, but that is not what increases those chances.

1 more road game is not what is lacking for a institution like UD. One home and home with a better team such as an Ill. or Murray State is not the majic ingredient. Sorry about that.

Now If you just want to see a really good team (take your pick on anyone with a 50 or less rpi) on the schedule, now I say yea that would be great just from the stand point of the entertainment and excitement level alone, but do not mistake that for the ingredient missing from extending our chances for the NCAA ...

The main recipe for entry into the NCAA is 1) win most of your games, 2) don't lose to the +100 rpi ones, 3) be a leader in your conference (top 3 or 4), 4) be IN the conference tournament finals and then hope to God that the NCAA folks believe you are worth an invite. (PS if you win in item 4 you don't have to hope!)

If you have that P5 recipe please disregard items 1,3 and 4 above. Don't meet item 2? Lets see what rules we can bend!

[UD62]

Dayton isn't on the bubble last year if they don't get drubbed at Duquesne or lose at LaSalle when wins get the regular season conference championship. Playing two more of those games actually makes it more likely they get left out.[/QUOTE]

BINGO!!!

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

[Flyer 86]

Originally Posted by DGO67 Getting an 8 or 9 seed would be worrisome!

getting another 11 seed would be Worrisome!!

[Larymike]

Based on only having 2 A-10 teams in this projection is assuming Dayton wins the tournament. Knowing that I see no way they are getting that bad of a seeding.

[bobber]

If the pundits have us as a 10 we had better say our prayers. We'll be appearing in the play-in again, or worse yet the three letter tournament.

You know the Selection Committee will stick it to us.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by UDDoug There is nothing wrong with it. But if you are going to argue that not playing those series might keep you out of the NCAA because SOS is weaker, you have to acknowledge that playing it AND losing is just as, or even more likely, to keep you out. There is no panacea because SOS might keep you out, losing against a stronger schedule might keep you out, not playing enough road games might keep you out, losing road games might keep you out. Remind me how the SOS helped get Temple a bid last year? That's my point - you can play it either way. But the only way that leads to a bid outside the Power 5 is to win enough nonconference games, win enough conference games. If they want a reason to keep you out, they will find one. If your point is play a higher ranked schedule, play more road games, AND win just as many then I agree, you will be more certain of a bid. I'm just not so certain all of those ifs come together very often.

Well, I think the program is ready to take the next step in terms of increasing the schedule difficulty, this is a new era with AM at the helm.

But, I can also see the fear: the program is at a delicate/sensitive point in getting close to being near annual NCAA tournament qualifiers, fans want more success before making any big changes, don't fix what isn't broken, etc.

So, I think the fans aren't yet ready for this change, and that's fine, maybe someday that change will come.

If UD at some point comes up just short of a bid due to the SOS being weak, then that change may come sooner than expected.

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.