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  #1  
Old 11-26-2018, 01:56 PM
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First NCAA NET Rankings

Dayton is #69.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2018...l-net-rankings
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  #2  
Old 11-26-2018, 02:29 PM
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Ohio State #1. Loyola Marymount #10. Radford #22.
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Old 11-26-2018, 02:31 PM
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Yowza

Guess the NCAA will have to answer to all those P5 CONFERENCES that have teams ranked so low .......

Maybe it's too early to get the metrics fully engaged and settled in to the algorithms.

One does have to wonder what the sam hill are they measuring to get some of those teams (i.e. Belmont is No. 12 overall) ranked so high.

I start to wonder just a little more every year what the NCAA is doing both in regards to oversite and in doling out selections to the tournaments.
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Old 11-26-2018, 02:40 PM
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I like it. Any analytic at this point in the season should be kinda crazy if it only uses data from this season. The other methods give value to carry over expectations to dampen this crazy in the early season. That method gives us no clues on a Flyer team that bares little resemblance to last season. I like that eyes are on a crazy system that will seems to reward actual real time behavior. The crazy will dampen out and maybe in the end we will learn that our eye test kinda sucks.
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  #5  
Old 11-26-2018, 02:43 PM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 View Post
One does have to wonder what the sam hill are they measuring to get some of those teams (i.e. Belmont is No. 12 overall) ranked so high.
"Machine learning."

Daisssssyy.......daisssssyy......
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Old 11-26-2018, 02:47 PM
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Way too early to put any weight on this.
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  #7  
Old 11-26-2018, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Way too early to put any weight on this.
Correct.

You guys think RPI is better?

2. Georgia Southern
7. Radford
13. Citadel

Should I go on?

How about

17. Duguesne
20. Houston Baptist
95. Dayton

Like Jack72 said - way too early.
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  #8  
Old 11-26-2018, 04:13 PM
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from a DDN article about the NET rankings:
"Dayton is the fourth-highest ranked Atlantic 10 team behind No. 40 Duquesne, No. 56 Virginia Commonwealth and No. 62 Saint Louis."
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  #9  
Old 11-26-2018, 04:53 PM
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Are these rankings binding/the end all be all? So, teams wiil be selected off this list in the order that they are ranked with no exceptions?

Last year, we had rpi #33 MTSU not getting in, but rpi #66 Arizona State getting in. So, no more stuff like that?
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Old 11-26-2018, 05:00 PM
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The use of "machine learning" provides the NCAA with the flexibility needed to make the numbers come out just right...


And the NCAA will look back at every thing that it had made, and, behold, it will be very good.
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  #11  
Old 11-26-2018, 05:07 PM
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...aise-questions

Some folks dont like it
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  #12  
Old 11-26-2018, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by frisco flyer View Post
The use of "machine learning" provides the NCAA with the flexibility needed to make the numbers come out just right...


And the NCAA will look back at every thing that it had made, and, behold, it will be very good.
I bet that there will be some special exceptions made for the p5, IMO, it will be hard for the NCAA to rig the numbers just right in favor of the p5, too many pesky, non-p5 teams will slip through the cracks, thus the need for special exceptions.

There is no way that this will be a strict rankings-based system, there will be human intervention.
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Old 11-26-2018, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Are these rankings binding/the end all be all? So, teams wiil be selected off this list in the order that they are ranked with no exceptions?

Last year, we had rpi #33 MTSU not getting in, but rpi #66 Arizona State getting in. So, no more stuff like that?
No. They have stated that they will use the NET numbers to sort games into quadrants. So they can pull the same BS as last year saying 3-8 in quad 1 games is better than 2-1 in quad 1 games.
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  #14  
Old 11-26-2018, 05:15 PM
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How do we know 10 days before Selection Sunday the NCAA and Google determine that not enough national brands are going to make the tournament to sell tickets, TV ads, AdWords, and licensed merchandising, and subsequently flip the switch to add "bonus points" to specific schools to bump up their resume's in the final week to the detriment of smaller schools with smaller followings like MTSU or Bucknell?

The basketball conscience would have no way of auditing such a thing, nevermind knowing it was going on (which is even worse).

Every week the "algorithm" and "machine learning" could change for reasons nobody can explain, to kick out results nobody can substantiate. How hard would be it be in the thousands of lines of code to add a back-door "kicker" to specific teams you want to see always in the tournament with protected seeds like Kentucky or Duke? You'd never find the code. It would be like Office Space and rounding fractions of a penny into another bank account. Unless you're looking for it and know what you're looking for -- nevermind having a reason to look in the first place -- you'd be hostage to your own ignorance.
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  #15  
Old 11-26-2018, 05:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
How do we know 10 days before Selection Sunday the NCAA and Google determine that not enough national brands are going to make the tournament to sell tickets, TV ads, AdWords, and licensed merchandising, and subsequently flip the switch to add "bonus points" to specific schools to bump up their resume's in the final week to the detriment of smaller schools with smaller followings like MTSU or Bucknell?

The basketball conscience would have no way of auditing such a thing, nevermind knowing it was going on (which is even worse).

Every week the "algorithm" and "machine learning" could change for reasons nobody can explain, to kick out results nobody can substantiate. How hard would be it be in the thousands of lines of code to add a back-door "kicker" to specific teams you want to see always in the tournament with protected seeds like Kentucky or Duke? You'd never find the code. It would be like Office Space and rounding fractions of a penny into another bank account. Unless you're looking for it and know what you're looking for -- nevermind having a reason to look in the first place -- you'd be hostage to your own ignorance.
I think I read that these algorithms for the big tech companies are so complex now they don't even understand how they work
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Old 11-26-2018, 05:56 PM
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:00 PM
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By failing to publicly release the formula, IMO, the NCAA is inviting massive amounts of skepticism and criticism.
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  #18  
Old 11-26-2018, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
By failing to publicly release the formula, IMO, the NCAA is inviting massive amounts of skepticism and criticism.

In which case I guess you won't mind hearing that I've already found numerous errors in the NET and I've only been looking for about an hour.


Keep in mind this is out of the 2% part of the NET we can actually measure - the other 98% of the data sets are behind closed doors.
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
In which case I guess you won't mind hearing that I've already found numerous errors in the NET and I've only been looking for about an hour.


Keep in mind this is out of the 2% part of the NET we can actually measure - the other 98% of the data sets are behind closed doors.
ping some journalists
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:40 PM
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The RPI may not better, but it's not worse either. It's all a pile of stinky goods. Kind of like MrFlyerfanatic's thread concerning the A10 winning percentage, etc, but it's all misleading. Illinois stinks in football, but Ohio State is not suffering because of it. So long as the apparatus being utilized rewards teams that win, you can always have human machines assess the rest. If the RPI was so outdated, then why in the heck was it being utilized the past 30 years? It wasn't broke, it simply got tired and stale as something to promote and discuss. Trust me, if NCAA creates a metric that reduces the number of power football conference schools making the NCAA Tournament, they will either correct that problem, or it will be the death of the NCAA.

Last edited by Beatty Town Coach; 11-26-2018 at 06:45 PM..
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:42 PM
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Wink Simply Said.

Originally Posted by Bill McPeek View Post
Just win!
Exactly! Simple as Bill says. It's not that hard!
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  #22  
Old 11-26-2018, 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
ping some journalists

https://twitter.com/UDPride/status/1067197613617946624
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  #23  
Old 11-26-2018, 07:46 PM
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I do hope more journalists pick up on the inaccuracies and lack of transparency. This is big business, with jobs and budgets on the line for 300-plus schools. Is it too much to be open and honest about how the system is SUPPOSED to work?

They could fix this more easily by eliminating the NIT, expanding to 96 teams and eliminating schools with losing conference records from consideration, but that ain’t gonna happen.
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Old 11-26-2018, 08:12 PM
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Wink Taking subjective data and carry it to 4 decimals.

This is what you get when you are obsessed with eliminating the "eye test".

We used to call it a "litmus test" or "sanity check" or "saliva check". I think Dilbert had a few other references.
Call it what you will, but there better be some cross checks.
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Old 11-26-2018, 08:12 PM
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Chris,

After all these 280 character zingers, you may want to update your will, always tell someone where you are, and look around every corner...

The deep state will be ticked off. Bravo!
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Old 11-26-2018, 08:43 PM
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great work

Not sure if you have the time or interest but an article on this would great
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Old 11-26-2018, 11:24 PM
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Before I say anything, know that I am not defending the NET. I am, however, defending the concept of the NET. As long as the NCAA is involved, it will be crooked.

Right now the NET seems like insanity. What also seems like insanity to me is that a group of basketball people (not statisticians) can get in a room and come up with a magic formula to determine the best team.

I'm a data guy. I deal with large data sets all the time. Data can tell you so much, if you know what to do with it. There are so many stats kept, that allowing machines to use that data to rank teams makes a ton of sense. They can learn new things and adjust the weighting of data in real time. Without human interaction - which eliminates political meddling.

To make it work, there are a few things that need to happen:

- To Chris's point, they need to clean up the data. That's the funny thing about data driven processes, bad inputs = bad outputs. Needs to be good data

- There doesn't need to be a predetermined formula. However, they should make public the various metrics and data sets they are loading into the machine. Schools should know the data being used. If margin of victory is a factor, schools need to know.

- They should periodically release the formula and weighting the computers are using. Again, it can adjust as needed to ensure it understands which balance of metrics are doing the best job of identifying the quality of teams, but schools should have some idea of what data is important at a point in time.

- They should never release data driven rankings this early. Not enough data to be statistically relevant yet. That's how you get strange results like OSU #1 and Radford #22.

I'm happy to debate the premise of machine learning and data science to determine rankings, but please don't confuse that with me defending the NCAA or the NET.

I'm just saying a predetermined formula developed by non-statisticians isn't the way to go either.
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Old 11-27-2018, 12:25 AM
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We have about 100 artificial intelligence (AI) engineers working at the company I work for. Simplifying too much, machine learning is part of AI. There are a ton of human variables in setting up machine learning. No one on the Committee has any clue what Google is doing. After working in technology for 20+ years I can go toe-to-toe with our AI engineers for only about 5 minutes and then I am completely lost. The committee could not last 5 seconds, they have a soundbite but really don't understand AI/machine learning at all. Truly scary.

By the way, Dayton must run up the score massively versus the likes of Detroit and Fordham. It appears NET is materially influenced by raw offensive and data efficiency. In other words, it it does not adjust efficiency for competition. So for the efficiency numbers, beating #1 UVA by 5 is the same as beating #350 Fordham by 5. Huge incentive to run up the score as much as possible (proxy for efficiency) versus the likes of Coppin State, Detroit, and Fordham. This is madness. I could go on and on about the flaws of NET, but the lack of transparency is amazing.

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Old 11-27-2018, 12:39 AM
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What a HUGE crock of hooey….. This is college basketball, not rocket science.... all the data in the world will not tell you the outcome of a game; no less the balance of a tournament selection as a result of thousands of games! There is a reason that they go ahead and play these game! This is clearly headed to classic paralysis by analysis....
I still think it is an overt attempt to give more cloudiness to the selection process so that they can justify any outcome they want.
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Old 11-27-2018, 01:39 AM
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Originally Posted by TerryK_67 View Post
What a HUGE crock of hooey….. This is college basketball, not rocket science.... all the data in the world will not tell you the outcome of a game; no less the balance of a tournament selection as a result of thousands of games! There is a reason that they go ahead and play these game! This is clearly headed to classic paralysis by analysis....
I still think it is an overt attempt to give more cloudiness to the selection process so that they can justify any outcome they want.
It's not necessarily to predict an outcome of a single game - if that was the case I would take the machines to Vegas! It's to identify quality teams. Of course anything can happen on a given night - so you play the game.

There are like 5,000 NCAA games every year. Unless there is someone that actually watches every single one of them (it would take 416 days if watched back to back without sleep), then there is no human on earth that can actually rank the teams against each other. All they can do it look at results and see if those results jive with their preconceived idea of who is good.

As smaller schools get better, it makes it harder to actually rank them. We can all talk about Radford at #22 is insane, and it probably is, but how many of us have actually watched them play? For that matter, how many of the people voting for the top 25 have watched a second of a Radford game this year?

At some point we need to embrace technology to help us do the things we can't. Like watching 5,000 basketball games.
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Old 11-27-2018, 02:42 AM
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It's a conundrum. We get tired of the human bias in the picks and long for an algorithm to be non-biased, but all algorithms are also designed by humans and have their biases built in. The truth is, we'll never be satisfied across the board but there is a way to mitigate the uncertainty, and that's to win the conference championship every year. Then it doesn't matter what the computer says.
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Old 11-27-2018, 07:54 AM
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Am I the only person that thinks Butler shouldn’t be ranked #45- 24 spots higher than Dayton- after Dayton dominated them? Oh wait, my bad they are in the big east...
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Old 11-27-2018, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
By the way, Dayton must run up the score massively versus the likes of Detroit and Fordham.
I thought score differential is capped at 10 pts using NET?
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:41 AM
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which is better? We have no idea. The difference is everyone knows how the RPI is calculated. We can check your results. Now with the NET we have no idea. Data bad? Code wrong? The answer is trust us. I don't trust the NCAA at all. Doesn't mean the NET won't be better but I do not trust the NCAA.
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
I do not trust the NCAA.
That may be the one and only thing that everyone on this board can agree on.
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Old 11-27-2018, 12:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
I thought score differential is capped at 10 pts using NET?
It supposedly is, but how are we to know for sure? Maybe teams like Duke who can win more games by 20 get rewarded thru the back door, while lesser teams get to 10pt margins and stop playing.

Or perhaps you better win by 30 instead of 10 anyway to guarantee your offensive and defensive efficiency stats are solid. Imagine the efficiency hit you could take by being up 18 with 4 min to go, throw the scrubs in, then win by 7 in a game that was NEVER in doubt.

Nobody knows anything...about anything.
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Old 11-27-2018, 01:45 PM
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Can't Figgie just create a system for the NCAA to use?!?!?!?
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Old 11-27-2018, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
Chris,

After all these 280 character zingers, you may want to update your will, always tell someone where you are, and look around every corner...

The deep state will be ticked off. Bravo!
LOL, Chris is the deep state here, NET Rankings are the "State run media" telling you what they want you to hear!
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Old 11-27-2018, 02:43 PM
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Even if there is a cap on point differential, if advanced stats (beyond the game scores) are used as part of the formula, then those sorts of efficiency stats will be affected by garbage time. Better to be efficient and run up the score to a 50pt win whenever possible.
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Old 11-27-2018, 07:39 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow View Post
Even if there is a cap on point differential, if advanced stats (beyond the game scores) are used as part of the formula, then those sorts of efficiency stats will be affected by garbage time. Better to be efficient and run up the score to a 50pt win whenever possible.
Precisely. But we have no idea how legitimately beneficial it is to do just that, because we have no idea how much weight is applied to offensive and defensive efficiency. Is it a little or is it a lot? Is it 1/5th of the entire rating system based on the 5-section infographic the NCAA distributed, or are pieces weighted differently? Perhaps with the machine learning and AI those offensive and defensive efficiencies are weighted more heavily in January and February to account for teams "gaining steam".

The criticism of the NET has never been whether its a poor ranking system. It may be exponentially better than the RPI. Nobody even cares about the hit-and-miss first rankings this week where things dont often make sense b/c the games are yet to be fully interconnected. The concern all comes down to zero transparency, zero ability to understand the very system you're being evaluated on, zero ability to schedule a non-conference season based on those understandings, zero confidence in those orchestrating the rating system in having their own fundamental understanding of what's taking place to the point where they can effectively articulate it to you, and zero accounting or auditing of the system by those member schools to ensure that the proper data is being inputted and the proper results are being outputted.

The lack of detail and transparency is so bad we can't even tell how much better the #7 team is compared to the #11 team. Is the #7 team equally worse than the #3 team as they are better to the #11 team? Or do teams get bunched up? Maybe the gap between #7 and #8 is five times greater than #8 and #9. Who's to say? Who's to say otherwise?

Without a rating value, rank is irrelevant when it comes to computers. If this were simply a vote poll like the AP Top-25 it wouldnt matter because its all subjective. But like the RPI, the NET is supposed to take most or all of the subjectivity away from the discussion -- thats the entire point of the system to begin with -- to remove bias and evaluate based on calling balls and strikes.

The scary part is I dont think most ADs, coaches, and admins understand what's even at stake here. Its just flying over their heads and they are ignorant to their own ignorance. And the NCAA is more than willing to let them remain that way if it can reduce the number of questions being asked.

When the NCAA can't answer basic questions on their own ranking system, the system is un-credible and cannot be trusted. Not when billions of dollars are in the mix, conference affiliations, coaching jobs worth millions, and national TV appearances are contracted. If someone handed you a gun and said "trust me its not loaded", you'd still check for yourself. Someone's pinky swear isn't enough.
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Old 11-30-2018, 10:06 PM
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Radford just knocked off #17 Texas on the road. According to the NET that's #22 Radford knocking off #50 Texas. Maybe the NET is on to something?
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  #42  
Old 02-02-2019, 09:18 PM
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For Chris R and the folks following the NET this year

doing playing lower rated teams cause less damage to the NET provided a team blows them out with the emphasis on efficiency in NET?
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Old 02-02-2019, 10:26 PM
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Yes. At least for now. Efficiency is currently more important than opponent's W/L record.
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Old 02-10-2019, 01:24 PM
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With yesterday's win, the Flyers move from 100 to 82. That is too much of a move from 1 game this late into the season.
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Old 02-10-2019, 02:22 PM
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Let’s go get a 20-point road win against Davidson. We’ll get ourselves into the Top 50. Ha
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Old 02-10-2019, 02:31 PM
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I was a bit puzzled when i saw our strength of schedule was outside of top 100. Has A-10 opponents dropped us that much??
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Old 02-10-2019, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
With yesterday's win, the Flyers move from 100 to 82. That is too much of a move from 1 game this late into the season.
That's just silly and makes me really question how this formula is weighed.
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Old 02-11-2019, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by TheSixthMan View Post
I was a bit puzzled when i saw our strength of schedule was outside of top 100. Has A-10 opponents dropped us that much??
Yes, I guess.

Of course, it does not help that we are currently only #7 in the A10 in sos, I hope that ranking improves.

How in the world are the likes of GW, St. Joe's, and the Bonnies ahead of us in sos right now? A10 pods?

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_atl10_Men.html

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Old 02-11-2019, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by TheSixthMan View Post
I was a bit puzzled when i saw our strength of schedule was outside of top 100. Has A-10 opponents dropped us that much??
It doesn't help that most of our "good losses" have started to tank...Oklahoma, Mississippi St., Auburn, Tulsa.
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Old 02-11-2019, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
With yesterday's win, the Flyers move from 100 to 82. That is too much of a move from 1 game this late into the season.
That does seem odd, so it makes me wonder how many of those teams between 82-100 lost. Maybe we didn't move up as much as other teams moved down.
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Old 02-11-2019, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
That does seem odd, so it makes me wonder how many of those teams between 82-100 lost. Maybe we didn't move up as much as other teams moved down.
I think it has more to do with "Efficiency" or putting the beatdown on URI.
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Old 02-11-2019, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
That does seem odd, so it makes me wonder how many of those teams between 82-100 lost. Maybe we didn't move up as much as other teams moved down.
Better yet, Kenpom has us at 66 today. There’s going to be a lot of interesting decisions made on selection Sunday.
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Old 02-11-2019, 12:44 PM
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Maybe this belongs in the dreamers thread but it would be interesting to see what are numbers look like if we could finish 5-2 with another beat down in there.
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Old 02-11-2019, 05:59 PM
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Missing the math... my impression of NET is not just wins or loses, but the beauty pageant aspect. If you were favored to win by 4, you better win by more than 4. So when we squeak out a win, that is not good enough. You lose ground to the field.

So can this team not just win, but drill people? Maybe, but it seems to go against the coach's mindset (and I totally understand it). But if those are the rules, you better be ready to either play by the rules or not complain later...
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Old 02-11-2019, 07:03 PM
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Originally Posted by keats '91 View Post
Missing the math... my impression of NET is not just wins or loses, but the beauty pageant aspect. If you were favored to win by 4, you better win by more than 4. So when we squeak out a win, that is not good enough. You lose ground to the field.

So can this team not just win, but drill people? Maybe, but it seems to go against the coach's mindset (and I totally understand it). But if those are the rules, you better be ready to either play by the rules or not complain later...
There's some truth to that, although it's not very transparent as to how it actually factors in. I thought they wanted to navigate from the RPI so they could have a more transparent and accurate measuring tool??

Here's what I've discerned - blowout wins to lesser teams and/or flat out crappy teams can help you - NC State at #35 compared to a 115 RPI.

Close losses (and al lot of them) to quality opponents also help you - see 12-11 Florida and 13-11 Indiana, who both have NET's in the 40's but RPI's in the 70's.

I was looking at NC State's resume/schedule, and it's hard to believe that they're in serious consideration right now for an at-large bid. Some committees in years past would have bounced NC State on their non-con schedule alone. It's inexplicable, IMO. Out of 353 D1 teams, NC State's non-conference SOS ranks 352. That should be grounds for automatic exclusion from the NCAA tournament unless you win your conference tournament.

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Old 02-11-2019, 09:34 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
There's some truth to that, although it's not very transparent as to how it actually factors in. I thought they wanted to navigate from the RPI so they could have a more transparent and accurate measuring tool??

Here's what I've discerned - blowout wins to lesser teams and/or flat out crappy teams can help you - NC State at #35 compared to a 115 RPI.

Close losses (and al lot of them) to quality opponents also help you - see 12-11 Florida and 13-11 Indiana, who both have NET's in the 40's but RPI's in the 70's.

I was looking at NC State's resume/schedule, and it's hard to believe that they're in serious consideration right now for an at-large bid. Some committees in years past would have bounced NC State on their non-con schedule alone. It's inexplicable, IMO. Out of 353 D1 teams, NC State's non-conference SOS ranks 352. That should be grounds for automatic exclusion from the NCAA tournament unless you win your conference tournament.
Totally agree...seems laughable that NCSU is even in contention...but the thing is that the rankings matrix has their average ranking at 44...their NET rating of 35 is not that far off.

Hard to understand how their RPI can be so bad when all of their other rankings have a standard deviation of only 17.

I really think that the selection committee should just take the average of something like the 5 best rating systems and leave it at that, no more eye test/gaining steam/etc.-type garbage.


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Old 02-11-2019, 09:42 PM
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I can't wait for the day when winning games becomes important again...
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Old 02-11-2019, 10:01 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
It doesn't help that most of our "good losses" have started to tank...Oklahoma, Mississippi St., Auburn, Tulsa.
On the brighter side, our “best” loss just got better. UVA beat the Tar Heels by 8 tonight.
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Old 02-11-2019, 10:02 PM
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Last year's final matrix...hard to understand how 29 Penn State, 35 SMC, 44 WKU, and 45 MTSU get left out if they are looking for teams with good computer ratings. Hard to understand what they are looking for. Must have been q1 and q2 wins or sos or something. The computers liked those 4 teams.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/arc...are2018-19.htm
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Old 02-12-2019, 03:07 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Last year's final matrix...hard to understand how 29 Penn State, 35 SMC, 44 WKU, and 45 MTSU get left out if they are looking for teams with good computer ratings. Hard to understand what they are looking for. Must have been q1 and q2 wins or sos or something. The computers liked those 4 teams.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/arc...are2018-19.htm
St Marys, WKU and MTSU didn't have enough quad 1/2 wins
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Old 02-12-2019, 03:12 AM
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interesting that the weak OOC games like Coppin State ending up being an advantage under the NET
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Old 02-12-2019, 08:10 AM
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Cool Speaking of St Mary's...

Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
St Marys, WKU and MTSU didn't have enough quad 1/2 wins

I wonder how the 92-46 thumping St Mary's received at Gonzaga this past Saturday will play in the "eye test" category!
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Old 02-12-2019, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
St Marys, WKU and MTSU didn't have enough quad 1/2 wins
Scheduling problems I presume...deck is stacked...not enough good games to go around for all of the aspirational non-p5 teams...nobody wants to play at their place...glaring problem.

If you are non-p5 then you have to have all of your ducks in a row: good computer rating, good q1/q2 number of wins and q1/q2 win %, good sos, good w/l in last 10, and any other thing that can be held against you, etc., otherwise you are out...q1/q2 stats should be based on win % not on the actual # of wins.

Right now Buffalo, Lipscomb, and Wofford only have 3 or 4 losses each...all top 30 in NET...will they all get in if they lose their conference tourney? Doubtful for Lipscomb and Wofford if they lose conference tourney final.

Easy partial solution would be to establish a minimum in-league winning % for the p5, no more 7-11 league records getting in.

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Old 02-12-2019, 10:54 AM
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Why would the p5’s agree to this????
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Old 02-12-2019, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by maddog07 View Post
Why would the p5’s agree to this????
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They wouldn't but it would be nice if the NCAA had some balls once in a while to say we are doing what is right for ALL of our members.
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
They wouldn't but it would be nice if the NCAA had some balls once in a while to say we are doing what is right for ALL of our members.

And then the power five teams would say, we are taking our balls and doing our own tournament. You already don’t control us for football. Byyyyeeeee .
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
And then the power five teams would say, we are taking our balls and doing our own tournament. You already don’t control us for football. Byyyyeeeee .
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I get it but it's just frustrating as a fan of a non-P5 school.
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:06 PM
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The reason people watch march madness is for the upsets and Cinderella runs. Once you lose that you’ll lose a lot of casual viewers and money
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:18 PM
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That is true for the early rounds. But it falls apart in theregionals and final four. If Wofford and Lipscomb somehow made the final game, the only purple watching would be diehards and the players' relatives.
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
That is true for the early rounds. But it falls apart in theregionals and final four. If Wofford and Lipscomb somehow made the final game, the only purple watching would be diehards and the players' relatives.
Really? The only reason I was excited about the FF last year was because of Loyola. Unique teams going deep gives the casual fan a reason to watch, not the opposite.
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:37 PM
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The auto qualifiers gives them enough potential Cinderellas. They don't need 3 to 6 more non-P5s to get in. It sucks but that is the reality.
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post

Right now Buffalo, Lipscomb, and Wofford only have 3 or 4 losses each...all top 30 in NET...will they all get in if they lose their conference tourney? Doubtful for Lipscomb and Wofford if they lose conference tourney final.
Gonna be pretty hard to keep any of those teams out unless they start tanking. Buffalo has been ranked all year and is clearly one of the best teams in the country, not to mention a upset-darling from the year prior.

Wofford and Lipscomb don't have quite the cachet, but still hard to see them losing enough to damage their rather pristine NET rankings. I don't see how the committee can say "this is our new fancy computer ranking" and then completely ignore said ranking.

The irony here is that under the RPI I could see a path for passing over these teams, but their new system seems to favor them.
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Old 02-13-2019, 06:20 PM
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So assuming that NET doesn't change for next year

It seems like UD would be better off bringing in the Coppin State and Western Michigan's of the world and blowing them out versus a Georgia Southern
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Old 02-14-2019, 04:52 PM
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Talking

My son, who is a 7th grader was asking about Dayton's chances of making the NCAA tournament. Our discussion turned to the NET formula vs. the RPI. He surmised that the reason they called it the NET is because the formula is full of holes.��
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