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  #1  
Old 12-19-2018, 01:33 PM
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CBS bracketology 12/17/2018, UD makes the NCAAT

A 12 seed vs. Marquette in Des Moines, Iowa. Winner likely plays Wisconsin. We are the only A10 team in the field, so we are the A10T winner. I admit that I was shocked to see this.

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https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/
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  #2  
Old 12-19-2018, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
A 12 seed vs. Marquette in Des Moines, Iowa. Winner likely plays Wisconsin. We are the only A10 team in the field, so we are the A10T winner. I admit that I was shocked to see this.

Jerry Palm likes us!


https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/
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Old 12-20-2018, 11:14 AM
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Our losses and their seed:

Virginia 1
Mississippi State 3
Auburn 3
Oklahoma 4
Tulsa not?

Butler 9

Seriously folks, we have had our say about not-so-bad losses, but look at these seeds and the relatively narrow margins of defeat, and we really have survived (barely) a gauntlet of tough teams. We are conditioned for a good go at the A10.

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  #4  
Old 12-21-2018, 05:08 PM
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Question At-large Good?

Do you think it could be such a good A10 run that UD is then at-large material? How likely that is for the Flyers to win virtually every game in the Atlantic 10 season, I'm not too sure yet, but if, for example, Flyers go 15-3 in conference, at-large doesn't seem out of reach.
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Old 12-21-2018, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Do you think it could be such a good A10 run that UD is then at-large material? How likely that is for the Flyers to win virtually every game in the Atlantic 10 season, I'm not too sure yet, but if, for example, Flyers go 15-3 in conference, at-large doesn't seem out of reach.
Unfortunately, this is a down year for all A10 teams and it will be a one-bid league regardless of some team winning almost all their league games. UD's goal should be to win enough league games to get a top-4 bye into the A10 tournament. Then, they will be in a better position to win the A10 tournament.
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Old 12-21-2018, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
Our losses and their seed:

Virginia 1
Mississippi State 3
Auburn 3
Oklahoma 4
Tulsa not?

Butler 9

Seriously folks, we have had our say about not-so-bad losses, but look at these seeds and the relatively narrow margins of defeat, and we really have survived (barely) a gauntlet of tough teams. We are conditioned for a good go at the A10.
12-6 certainly is realistic, and should be the goal with this A10. Hopefully that's enough for the double bye
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Old 12-21-2018, 08:15 PM
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Need more good wins, @VCU, @Davidson, @St Louis, St Louis are the likely opportunities for quad 1 wins.
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Old 12-21-2018, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by zmz723 View Post
12-6 certainly is realistic, and should be the goal with this A10. Hopefully that's enough for the double bye
I like 12-6 because it also will likely get us 20 wins going into the A10 T. But those 12 need to have 2 or 3 of the Quad 1 wins ruechalgrin pointed out. It's a challenge, but doable.
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Old 12-21-2018, 10:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Do you think it could be such a good A10 run that UD is then at-large material? How likely that is for the Flyers to win virtually every game in the Atlantic 10 season, I'm not too sure yet, but if, for example, Flyers go 15-3 in conference, at-large doesn't seem out of reach.
I'm for going 18-0 in conference, winding up 26-5 and never mind the A-10 tournament.

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  #10  
Old 12-22-2018, 12:12 AM
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Short of winning in Brooklyn, the only way I can see us being considered for an At Large is if we make the A10 Championship Game, and UVA, Miísippi State, and the Sooners are all Top 3 or higher Seeds in The Dance. Possible, yes, but Iím not holding my breath.
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Old 12-22-2018, 12:14 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Short of winning in Brooklyn, the only way I can see us being considered for an At Large is if we make the A10 Championship Game, and UVA, Miísippi State, and the Sooners are all Top 3 or higher Seeds in The Dance. Possible, yes, but Iím not holding my breath.
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The FBI/NCAA starts knocking teams out
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Old 12-22-2018, 12:34 AM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
The FBI/NCAA starts knocking teams out
Itís a distinct possibility that the FBI might have something to say about it. I donít think the NCAA will have the cojones to disqualify several teams in a 3-month span.
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  #13  
Old 12-22-2018, 10:08 AM
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I'm getting on the record with my prediction regarding the A10 multiple bids. The conference will continue its mutibid NCAA tournament streak. At-least two A10 Schools will make the 2019 NCAA Tournament Field.

Let the Bedell Chourus of push back begin.
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  #14  
Old 12-22-2018, 10:11 AM
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A lot of moving parts, but possible.
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Old 12-22-2018, 10:37 AM
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True enough. But that's really my point; the great plurality of posters and prognosticators tend to dismiss said moving parts, without allowing the season to unfold. There is still enough non-conference games left to make impact; and imagine if 2 - 4 A10 teams totally dominate the conference, that's going to put a real premium on games between those four schools, especially if its the "right" four schools....whoever that might be based on a plethora of assorted reasons.

In a more simplified scenario, it will only take one team to run away and hide during conference season, to make the A10 a likely two bid league. Let's say you are the coach of that run away and hide regular season team; how much sleep would you get if see the Dayton Flyers as your quarterfinal or semifinal opponent? I could go on and on!
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Old 12-23-2018, 12:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
…..

Let the Bedell Chourus of push back begin.
That show is sinking fast! Brooks, Keith, and Nate do pretty well, but the WHIO host is really .. well .. grating! I have an hour and a half ride back home after games - with nothing to do or to listen to - and I cannot listen to him anymore.....
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Old 12-23-2018, 02:26 AM
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Just keep winning - one game at a time.

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Old 12-23-2018, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
I like 12-6 because it also will likely get us 20 wins going into the A10 T. But those 12 need to have 2 or 3 of the Quad 1 wins ruechalgrin pointed out. It's a challenge, but doable.
12-6 would be nice, but probably not good enough if you want an at-large bid. Too many losses in non-con. Tough schedules are great and all, but you have to win some of them.

I think 14 wins will be required to sniff an at-large bid (if we beat Ga. Southern, that would put us at 22-9 going into A10s).
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Old 12-23-2018, 09:55 AM
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Lightbulb Absolutely!

Originally Posted by TerryK_67 View Post
That show is sinking fast! Brooks, Keith, and Nate do pretty well, but the WHIO host is really .. well .. grating! I have an hour and a half ride back home after games - with nothing to do or to listen to - and I cannot listen to him anymore.....
Absolutely, it's bad! This guy has more professional problems than you can count.
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Old 12-23-2018, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Just keep winning - one game at a time.

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I agree. The final 10 games will not be easy. At this point, based on our play to date, weíre closer to a .500 conference team than a top three.
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Old 12-23-2018, 11:52 AM
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The Flyers right now would be favored in 12 of their 18 conference games. If they can (11 point favorite) beat Georgia Southern, go 12-6 in conference, 2-1 in the conference tournament, that's 22 wins. I don't think that's good enough.

You probably need 23 or 24 wins for an at large with Dayton's resume. That means probably a win at SLU, UMass, Davidson, VCU, URI, or Duquesne. Maybe 2 wins. And no bad losses.
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Old 12-23-2018, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
The Flyers right now would be favored in 12 of their 18 conference games. If they can (11 point favorite) beat Georgia Southern, go 12-6 in conference, 2-1 in the conference tournament, that's 22 wins. I don't think that's good enough.

You probably need 23 or 24 wins for an at large with Dayton's resume. That means probably a win at SLU, UMass, Davidson, VCU, URI, or Duquesne. Maybe 2 wins. And no bad losses.
I hate to have this mindset, but I donít think that will even be enough. When you consider the resume The Magnificent Seven had in 2014-15, and realize they were the last At-Large team to get a bid, I just donít believe weíll be awarded a bid unless we finish top 2 in-con, AND make it to the conference championship game. Too many 20-13 teams from P5 conferences that will be gaining steam.
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Old 12-23-2018, 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
I hate to have this mindset, but I donít think that will even be enough. When you consider the resume The Magnificent Seven had in 2014-15, and realize they were the last At-Large team to get a bid, I just donít believe weíll be awarded a bid unless we finish top 2 in-con, AND make it to the conference championship game. Too many 20-13 teams from P5 conferences that will be gaining steam.
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Agree. We have problems at the end of each half, counting on a lot of underclassmen minutes, all with basically 7 guys.
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Old 01-02-2019, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
I agree. The final 10 games will not be easy. At this point, based on our play to date, we’re closer to a .500 conference team than a top three.
I disagree with this, based on the following:

- the play on the court from the Flyers (winning the games we're supposed to and competitive in Top 25 games)
- the A10 (particularly the bottom half) is down and we shouldn't "give away" too many game to the bottom half
- we'll be favored at home for every game in A10 play
- We demonstrated we are just as good as every other team in the top of the A10 (SLU, VCU. Davidson, etc.)
- A top 3 finish is probably ~14 wins in a down A10, maybe just 13.
- I think we're closer to 13 wins in conference than we are to 9.
- Over/under today for Flyers is probably 12.....and I'm taking the over

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Old 01-02-2019, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
I hate to have this mindset, but I don’t think that will even be enough. When you consider the resume The Magnificent Seven had in 2014-15, and realize they were the last At-Large team to get a bid, I just don’t believe we’ll be awarded a bid unless we finish top 2 in-con, AND make it to the conference championship game. Too many 20-13 teams from P5 conferences that will be gaining steam.
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I tend to agree with this mindset, as well. 12-6 won't get an at-large bid, or even warrant serious consideration. I think 14-4 in A10 play gets us in the legitimate discussion.

Just not enough quality wins in the A10 this year. We really could have used either Miss. St. or Oklahoma.

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Old 01-02-2019, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
I'm getting on the record with my prediction regarding the A10 multiple bids. The conference will continue its mutibid NCAA tournament streak. At-least two A10 Schools will make the 2019 NCAA Tournament Field.

Let the Bedell Chourus of push back begin.
I'll get on board with this and suggest that at least 1 A10 team (SLU, UD, VCU or Davidson) separates themselves enough during A10 play AND that a different A10 team wins the conference tournament. Hopefully we'll be one of them. From what I've observed thus far, I don't see any reason to believe we can't.
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Old 01-03-2019, 09:31 AM
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The way I see this team so far .... is that they have not been consistent for more than 20 minutes at best and some times that 20 minutes is spread out over 2 half's.

I stopped trying to figure out what this team will do in a game before the game is played cause it never came close to expectations.

If they can put together a consistent act by say mid January maybe they pull off what happened during the E8 era under Archie.

If not, best I can see is 65%- 75% winning record.

I will just do what I've been doing ... wait for each game and see what happens!

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Old 01-03-2019, 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 View Post
The way I see this team so far .... is that they have not been consistent for more than 20 minutes at best and some times that 20 minutes is spread out over 2 half's.

I stopped trying to figure out what this team will do in a game before the game is played cause it never came close to expectations.

If they can put together a consistent act by say mid January maybe they pull off what happened during the E8 era under Archie.

If not, best I can see is 65%- 75% winning record.

I will just do what I've been doing ... wait for each game and see what happens!

75% winning record would make us 23-8 and 15-3 in conference,leading into the tournament. I'll that that all day and twice on Sundays.
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Old 01-03-2019, 10:36 AM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 View Post
I stopped trying to figure out what this team will do in a game before the game is played cause it never came close to expectations.
Just curious, but what exactly and whose expectations are those? Yours? Local media? National media? Our fan base?

I don't believe anybody's expectations were extremely high for this team. In my observation, we're probably a little better than initially advertised.
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Old 01-03-2019, 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post

I don't believe anybody's expectations were extremely high for this team. In my observation, we're probably a little better than initially advertised.
We are better than the Flyer team that played in Charleston. And would have been a lot better with a healthy Matos. But so are a lot of other teams.
It's a moving train. Are we now better than Butler, Virginia, Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Auburn, or even Tulsa?

The question really is can we make a strong run at the A10 with what we have today?
I have to believe the answer is maybe. Is an apparent beast mode in Obi Toppin going to continue to make up for the loss of Jhery Matos?

Still more questions than answers.

Last edited by San Diego Flyer; 01-03-2019 at 03:21 PM..
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Old 01-03-2019, 11:04 AM
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For UD to challenge for the league title, I think 3 numbers need to improve:


64


28


22


64 - The combined free throw percentage of Josh and Jalen. Josh gets to the line the most, Jalen has the ball in his hands the most, these dudes need to hit their free throws at a rate greater than 75% (josh did his sophomore season at UD, Jalen shot 68% last year)


28 - The combined 3-pt percentage of Ryan, Jordan & Dwayne....Mikesell was 33% as a frosh, 33% as a soph and 33% this season, so perhaps this is exactly what he'll be, but if Jordan get get closer to the 39% he hit last year, and Dwayne can start knocking them down, if they could as a group get to 35% and would help free up the inside.


22 - the average minutes per game of Obi. Dude is a force with a smooth offensive game and he needs to find his way on the court more. Not sure if he's needs to hold up more on his end of the bargain, or if CAG needs to play him more minutes in lieu of Mikesell, Jordan, Dwayne, etc.... but some way they need his productivity inside


Improve those 3 numbers and I'll take my chances.
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Old 01-03-2019, 11:06 AM
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Dayton Is

a very good offensive team
a work in progress on defense
a team that cannot guard the post or the basket
a thin roster that cannot manage foul trouble
a team learning how to win on the road
a team that has slow starts trouble finishing games
a mediocre foul shooting team
a poor three point shooting team on the road
a contender for a bye in A-10 Conference tournament play
The biggest question IMHO is whether or not the slow starts can be fixed by a change in the
starting lineup? If so Toppin will start but who will sit? It seems likely that General Grant will
maintain the current lineup. The hidden secret to this team is that they get their juices
flowing when they press the ball full court, create offense with defense and score in the 80's
and 90's.
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Old 01-03-2019, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
For UD to challenge for the league title, I think 3 numbers need to improve:


64


28


22


64 - The combined free throw percentage of Josh and Jalen. Josh gets to the line the most, Jalen has the ball in his hands the most, these dudes need to hit their free throws at a rate greater than 75% (josh did his sophomore season at UD, Jalen shot 68% last year)


28 - The combined 3-pt percentage of Ryan, Jordan & Dwayne....Mikesell was 33% as a frosh, 33% as a soph and 33% this season, so perhaps this is exactly what he'll be, but if Jordan get get closer to the 39% he hit last year, and Dwayne can start knocking them down, if they could as a group get to 35% and would help free up the inside.


22 - the average minutes per game of Obi. Dude is a force with a smooth offensive game and he needs to find his way on the court more. Not sure if he's needs to hold up more on his end of the bargain, or if CAG needs to play him more minutes in lieu of Mikesell, Jordan, Dwayne, etc.... but some way they need his productivity inside


Improve those 3 numbers and I'll take my chances.
Totally agree with your second two points.

Cunningham and Crutcher have improved. Josh is 22-28 his last 6 games, almost 80%. He has a bad hand to start the season. Crutcher has only shot 6 free throws in the last 8 games and is 6-6.
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Old 01-03-2019, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Totally agree with your second two points.

Cunningham and Crutcher have improved. Josh is 22-28 his last 6 games, almost 80%. He has a bad hand to start the season. Crutcher has only shot 6 free throws in the last 8 games and is 6-6.

Had not realized that, I'd love to see Crutch get to the line more often; if Josh can continue at 80% that is huge.
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Old 01-03-2019, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
For UD to challenge for the league title, I think 3 numbers need to improve:


64


28


22


64 - The combined free throw percentage of Josh and Jalen. Josh gets to the line the most, Jalen has the ball in his hands the most, these dudes need to hit their free throws at a rate greater than 75% (josh did his sophomore season at UD, Jalen shot 68% last year)


28 - The combined 3-pt percentage of Ryan, Jordan & Dwayne....Mikesell was 33% as a frosh, 33% as a soph and 33% this season, so perhaps this is exactly what he'll be, but if Jordan get get closer to the 39% he hit last year, and Dwayne can start knocking them down, if they could as a group get to 35% and would help free up the inside.


22 - the average minutes per game of Obi. Dude is a force with a smooth offensive game and he needs to find his way on the court more. Not sure if he's needs to hold up more on his end of the bargain, or if CAG needs to play him more minutes in lieu of Mikesell, Jordan, Dwayne, etc.... but some way they need his productivity inside


Improve those 3 numbers and I'll take my chances.
Good Post !
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Old 01-03-2019, 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
75% winning record would make us 23-8 and 15-3 in conference,leading into the tournament. I'll that that all day and twice on Sundays.
Yes BUT 65% does what? Get us to 20-11? Like I said, we could be pretty decent and then again pretty average. 23-8 doesn't get an At-Large easily. 20-11 gets us maybe an NIT placement.
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Old 01-03-2019, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Just curious, but what exactly and whose expectations are those? Yours? Local media? National media? Our fan base?

I don't believe anybody's expectations were extremely high for this team. In my observation, we're probably a little better than initially advertised.
The first word in the sentence is "I". Hence, the subject of the sentence is connected to me, myself and I and no other.

In MY opinion, still too early in the season to proclaim better than initially advertised as we haven't hit the A10 trail and those road games. I know we weren't expected to finish high by the coaches and media in the A10 and I take a wait and see with that in mind.

Hate to think this way after last year .... but ...
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Old 01-03-2019, 05:24 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Totally agree with your second two points.

Cunningham and Crutcher have improved. Josh is 22-28 his last 6 games, almost 80%. He has a bad hand to start the season. Crutcher has only shot 6 free throws in the last 8 games and is 6-6.
I would add defense to that mix. Giving up 90 points, not getting late games stops against good teams are problematic.

This team can and should play better defense.
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Old 01-03-2019, 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 View Post
Yes BUT 65% does what? Get us to 20-11? Like I said, we could be pretty decent and then again pretty average. 23-8 doesn't get an At-Large easily. 20-11 gets us maybe an NIT placement.
Short of winning the A-10, there is no easy way for the Flyers to get an at large bid. 20-11 gets us 12-6 in conference, in line with what a lot of folks think could happen. Unlike other years, the OOC hurt us. We needed to win a few of the games we lost.
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Old 01-03-2019, 07:52 PM
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There is no back up plan after the loss to Tulsa. Get into that top four, so we only have to play three games in the A10 tournament. Win said three games. I just donít see another way.
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Old 01-03-2019, 09:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
There is no back up plan after the loss to Tulsa. Get into that top four, so we only have to play three games in the A10 tournament. Win said three games. I just donít see another way.
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I see a few other ways:

18-0 in A10
17-1 in A10
16-2 in A10
15-3 in A10
14-4 in A10
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
I see a few other ways:

18-0 in A10
17-1 in A10
16-2 in A10
15-3 in A10
14-4 in A10
I would love if we went 18/0 or even 16/2. It wonít happen though. If it does, I look forward to eating the crow. It will be delicious! I think we will be around the 13 win Mark which would not be enough. Again, I hope Iím wrong!
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Old 02-04-2019, 05:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
For UD to challenge for the league title, I think 3 numbers need to improve:


64


28


22


64 - The combined free throw percentage of Josh and Jalen. Josh gets to the line the most, Jalen has the ball in his hands the most, these dudes need to hit their free throws at a rate greater than 75% (josh did his sophomore season at UD, Jalen shot 68% last year)


28 - The combined 3-pt percentage of Ryan, Jordan & Dwayne....Mikesell was 33% as a frosh, 33% as a soph and 33% this season, so perhaps this is exactly what he'll be, but if Jordan get get closer to the 39% he hit last year, and Dwayne can start knocking them down, if they could as a group get to 35% and would help free up the inside.


22 - the average minutes per game of Obi. Dude is a force with a smooth offensive game and he needs to find his way on the court more. Not sure if he's needs to hold up more on his end of the bargain, or if CAG needs to play him more minutes in lieu of Mikesell, Jordan, Dwayne, etc.... but some way they need his productivity inside


Improve those 3 numbers and I'll take my chances.

So, we are now 50% thru the conference season and sitting at 7-2; granted UD has their toughest stretch sitting in front of them, but hey, I don't control the schedule and 50% is as good a time to reflect as any.


64 - Josh and Jalen's combined free throw % OOC. Oppossing coaches have clearly gained a bead on their free throw defense, as combined, they're sitting at just 58% on freebies in conference play. Think a few more makes would have made a difference @ VCU or against George Mason? (sort of, would have been a boost @ VCU, jalen didn't attempt any vs Mason, which is kind of a problem)


28 - In conference play, they are at 38%; remarkably Chips is at an even 33% in conference play, his exact % OOC, as well as his first 2 seasons, Dude is consistent if nothing else from deep. Jordan is up over 40% for conference play, so while streaky, good over the stretch. Cohill has only taken 11 in conference play, but shooting a respectable 38%, need Chips to break his 1/3 stride and start hitting 40%.


22 - Obi is averaging over 26 mpg in conference play, I think we all agree that is a good thing. What was interesting the last 2 games is that those minutes came at the expense of landers in one game, and Josh in the next.


No clue what any of this means, but thought I'd look at what has happened since making these observations. If they Flyers want to challenge for a top 2 seed, I think getting the free throws % up and getting Landers "right" while maintaining everything else we've seen in conference play will be huge.
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:47 PM
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