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Old 01-29-2019, 11:01 PM
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Next six games

All against top half of the conference. We’ve cleaned up on the bottom half thus far.

Borrowing a line from John Wayne in The Cowboys (after he sees the cattle thieves beating up on the boys) “Lets see how tough you are when they come a little bigger”

Will be interesting - and telling-to see if we are up for the challenge.

Looking forward to see how we respond
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Old 01-29-2019, 11:57 PM
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I’m thinking 4-2 over the next 6 is the most likely outcome. All games winnable. All games loseable. Hold serve at home and steal 1 on the road. Best guess (though, again, anything’s possible).
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Old 01-30-2019, 11:43 AM
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Beat Duquesne at home, split Rhode Island and St. Louis on the road, Get revenge against VCU, Davidson may be tough, st. Louis at home is a must win. I agree four and two is likely, but I’m really really hoping for five and one. We go undefeated in this stretch, and I am ecstatic.
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Old 01-30-2019, 01:02 PM
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As NET rankings are the NCCAT guideline, note Dayton has no 1st group wins, and only one 2nd group win. Barring that, our claim to fame is a #159 win.

That is too surreal to be real!

Hence why I criticized those who said we were ahead of schedule. I mean, what test allowed you to arrive at that? My eyes are working fine.

So here we go. AND, mind you, none of these opponents move a dial either, but at least it is not bottom of the barrel. God help this program if we don't emerge with twenty regular season wins, because I got news for you, AG is here to stay for a long time. I say he will do at least that much, and I don't put it past him to get some NCAAT bids (though not wins). Sheesh.

I no longer have a gripe with AG as head coach. The door was only a tiny bit open after AM, and that is closed. I do think AG is competent (average), and that he is it. Period.

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Old 01-30-2019, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
As NET rankings are the NCCAT guideline, note Dayton has no 1st group wins, and only one 2nd group win. Barring that, our claim to fame is a #159 win.

That is too surreal to be real!

Hence why I criticized those who said we were ahead of schedule. I mean, what test allowed you to arrive at that? My eyes are working fine.

So here we go. AND, mind you, none of these opponents move a dial either, but at least it is not bottom of the barrel. God help this program if we don't emerge with twenty regular season wins, because I got news for you, AG is here to stay for a long time. I say he will do at least that much, and I don't put it past him to get some NCAAT bids (though not wins). Sheesh.

I no longer have a gripe with AG as head coach. The door was only a tiny bit open after AM, and that is closed. I do think AG is competent (average), and that he is it. Period.
So glad you cleared up that confusion.
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Old 01-30-2019, 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
As NET rankings are the NCCAT guideline, note Dayton has no 1st group wins, and only one 2nd group win. Barring that, our claim to fame is a #159 win.

That is too surreal to be real!

Hence why I criticized those who said we we're ahead of schedule. I mean, what test allowed you to arrive at that? My eyes are working fine.

So here we go. AND, mind you, none of these opponents move a dial either, but at least it is not bottom of the barrel. God help this program if we don't emerge with twenty regular season wins, because I got news for you, AG is here to stay for a long time. I say he will do at least that much, and I don't put it past him to get some NCAAT bids (though not wins). Sheesh.

I no longer have a gripe with AG as head coach. The door was only a tiny bit open after AM is closed. I do think AG is competent (not great), and that he is it. Period.
If your benchmark is quality wins vs last year, then I don't think you see the whole picture.

UD played competitive against Virginia, Auburn, Oklahoma and Miss State. None were wins but they were competitive. While I wish they were wins, last year's team would have been blown out (and they were). Last year's team was embarrassed at home against UMass. This year a close win. Last year, they won one road A10 game. They already have three.

Yes, the A10 schedule is back loaded. UD lost on the road to a tough VCU team. They should not have lost to George Mason, but look where GM is in the standings. The upcoming road schedule is very tough.


If you look at metrics besides wins, there is significant improvement. Look at the KenPom data. The biggest improvement is defense. The defense last year was terrible. Ugly, terrible. If you look at wins, they matched all the wins from last year. How can you look at those two data points and not see progress? Are you predicting 14-17 again?


I think Anthony has improved as a coach this year. His substation patterns are much better. He uses timeouts are better even though he prefers the NBS style of letting players work their way out of a funk. There is actually some merit to that practice. His end of game coaching has been questioned, but he was 3-2 in the last 5 close games. You could also see some very poor player execution in the two losses.

I see progress. Not enough for an NCAA bid this year. I did not expect that going in. Toppin has been a surprise. Mikesell made contributions. Crutcher has emerged as very good point guard. Cunningham is a force.

This team is not deep and still has some big holes. That makes it difficult to judge the total quality of Anthony's coaching.
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Old 01-30-2019, 01:48 PM
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How's it going CE80?

I get your drift Season Ticket Fan.
I had my preconceptions concerning AG, and his stock shifted slightly upward based on early efforts you spoke of. I am clearly looking to these next six games, as the host of this thread mentioned, to sort out my own evolving evaluations.

Sure, improvement was inevitable from last year, but what schedule is it we are ahead of?
This program is not on the cusp of successful treks to the NCAAT, nor do I anticipate such trajectory. These next games are interesting telltales. Let's see.
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Old 01-30-2019, 02:00 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
This program is not on the cusp of successful treks to the NCAAT, nor do I anticipate such trajectory. These next games are interesting telltales. Let's see.
By focusing on the next 6 games, your expectations for "successful treks to the NCAAT" begins this year? Maybe you should read Shocka's post on the other thread...AG has had to perform major surgery on this program to build a culture of winning, a culture of success. IMO the trajctory is where it should be, if not ahead of schedule.
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Old 01-30-2019, 02:03 PM
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If YOUR schedule is make the NCAA, then the program and team is not on track. This year. Personally, with the issues of players last year, I think that is unrealistic.


When Archie was hired, he told the administration that year three is the telling year. Then you have your players and your system. Anthony has FOUR transfers sitting out that have good reports about them. I think next year is the tell year for Anthony.

My personal feeling is the program is on schedule. Improvement over last year. Players understanding the new system better. Much more competitive. Are they behind schedule? No. Are they ahead of schedule. I think so, slightly. I never expected them to be competitive against the #3 team in the country or the top 25 teams they played. I expected ugly results. While I wish there was a win in there, that competitiveness is better than my expectations.
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Old 01-30-2019, 02:18 PM
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I will defer a bit here to your judgement being that I have not tuned in closely, as I have no masochistic tendencies.

I will however opine that good coaches transfer beneficial 'intangibles' that show up when it counts most. I won't elaborate, except to mention that many programs are comparable in talent, yet certain teams consistently manifest confidence surpassing the opponents. I want to see AG teams arise to the occasion when a positive outcome is doable.

I have no doubt AG will secure the best A-10 talent, and thus will keep the program near the top. That is not enough.
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Old 01-30-2019, 02:20 PM
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14-17 last year.

14-7 and counting this year. Likely to end up with 20 wins up through the conference tournament.

Top 25 next year.

On schedule.
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Old 01-30-2019, 02:25 PM
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Expectation is a better word than "on schedule". If someone expected a better record than we now have, and better recruits coming in, they were unrealistic. We are heading for 21-11 or 20-12 and an NIT. How many people expected better than that, or worse?
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Old 01-30-2019, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
How's it going CE80?
All is well.
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Old 01-30-2019, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Expectation is a better word than "on schedule". If someone expected a better record than we now have, and better recruits coming in, they were unrealistic. We are heading for 21-11 or 20-12 and an NIT. How many people expected better than that, or worse?
The problem is the way this team has lost some games people actually believe they should have won dilutes that earlier prediction in their minds because they really have/had no idea how the team would lose games when forecasting months ago. People forget the old "you are who you are" label when teams start losing games the same way as UD has by playing 36/37 minutes out of the 40.

Being within 3-4 points, or having the lead, with 3-4 minutes to go and hitting a wall is/has been their MO. Having leadership, being court savvy, communicating on D all contribute to a rather young team learning how to play together along with a very thin bench. A 21 win prediction would have been a good one..
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Old 01-30-2019, 03:12 PM
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CE80, congrats on your winning Bracket. Glad you are well.
Season Ticket Fan dotes on close losses. Hmm. The Cleveland Browns were rife with 'good' losses for decades. lol

Penetrating the NCAAT ain't gonna happen with AG anytime, let alone soon.
Look, I'm not a negative guy.
If you were to look back, you would see I supported BG hugely until his last season (then I turned, because he took us as far as he could). I never spoke a single negative word about AM when he struggled his first two seasons. He was entitled to build (as is AG).
Only the AG situation was different. He had history, and I went with my first impression and gut reaction. I root for UD. I do. The elite eight was awesome.
I appreciate that. Yet, if I am on a fan board like this I am going to say what I think is true, or will be true. I've seen glimpses that gave me pause, to think I am wrong about AG. I want to be wrong in this case. Let's see.
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Old 01-30-2019, 03:18 PM
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Ummmmmmm....yes, you're a negative guy..
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Old 01-30-2019, 03:21 PM
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LOL... cool beans.. like your response, steve yer right to some extent too


Alright; I'm done being nasty

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Old 01-30-2019, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
CE80, congrats on your winning Bracket. Glad you are well.
Season Ticket Fan dotes on close losses. Hmm. The Cleveland Browns were rife with 'good' losses for decades. lol

Penetrating the NCAAT ain't gonna happen with AG anytime, let alone soon.
Look, I'm not a negative guy.
If you were to look back, you would see I supported BG hugely until his last season (then I turned, because he took us as far as he could). I never spoke a single negative word about AM when he struggled his first two seasons. He was entitled to build (as is AG).
Only the AG situation was different. He had history, and I went with my first impression and gut reaction. I root for UD. I do. The elite eight was awesome.
I appreciate that. Yet, if I am on a fan board like this I am going to say what I think is true, or will be true. I've seen glimpses that gave me pause, to think I am wrong about AG. I want to be wrong in this case. Let's see.
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Lets be honest, every fanbase in the A10 want's their coach fired. St Joes only lost last night because their coach sucks according to them.

The reality is college basketball is mostly about recruiting great players and getting them to buy in. Don't get me wrong a coach can make a difference, but its way less than most give them credit for. A lot of games are won on the recruiting trail.
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Old 01-30-2019, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
By focusing on the next 6 games, your expectations for "successful treks to the NCAAT" begins this year? Maybe you should read Shocka's post on the other thread...AG has had to perform major surgery on this program to build a culture of winning, a culture of success. IMO the trajctory is where it should be, if not ahead of schedule.
I'm not buying the 'major surgery' part of this. He didn't inherit the kind of mess Purnell did. Players at that time didn't hardly know UD had a team (minimally it was in shambles). UD even suited up a 5'0 walk-on at one point. That was major surgery. Grant inherits a program that over the last 3 coaches has had a pretty consistent upwards trajectory and momentum. Granted the cupboard was left somewhat bare, but this is hardly the uphill battle UD faced in the early 90's.

Keep an eye on X. They are currently at the bottom of their league. Grant needs to sense the blood in the water, win the recruiting battles, and put some more holes in that ship.

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Old 01-30-2019, 04:01 PM
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I’d say the one thing almost beyond dispute is AG’s uptick in recruiting. Last time I looked, recruiting was part of coaching, as is player development. How many A-10 teams wish they had an Obi Toppin? A Jalen Crutcher? We have P5 recruits waiting in the wings, including a four-star big. We have another four-star recruit getting valuable minutes off the bench and who arguably changed the tone of last night’s game with his defense. In-game coaching is always ripe for criticism, but anyone who doesn’t think we’re ahead of schedule with regard to recruiting isn’t paying attention. And again, that is a significant part of coaching. Lousy players equals lousy coaching.
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Old 01-30-2019, 04:11 PM
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I'm not a fan of close losses but I really disdain getting blown and big losses. I've seen a few of those. Last year had some ugly losses.

I'm not into moral victories, however, a loss by 3-5 versus a loss by 20-30 means you have a much better team.

The new NET rankings tried to incorporate the level of losses into their ratings this year.
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Old 01-30-2019, 04:34 PM
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I'm not baiting you here Season Ticket Fan, but I thought the same as you.
Only now it is not being reflected.

I cringe to think how we would fare now against the same teams. I expected we would cut through these lower level A-10 teams. The teams we played early improved a lot I would guess. Given the paltry teams we played, and how we struggled to win, I had to wonder. I mean, I would expect Virginia would tear George Mason and St Bonaventure new holes.
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Old 01-30-2019, 05:06 PM
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Um, George Mason is in first place in the A14.
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Old 01-30-2019, 05:12 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
I cringe to think how we would fare now against the same teams.
So, if we got the chance to play Virginia, Oklahoma, Miss St., Auburn, and Tulsa in the next 5 games, you think we'd go 0-5?

Statistically that seems highly unlikely, but setting probabilities aside, what makes you think that? Simply because we've struggled with some of the bad teams in the A10?
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Old 01-30-2019, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
I cringe to think how we would fare now against the same teams. I expected we would cut through these lower level A-10 teams. The teams we played early improved a lot I would guess. Given the paltry teams we played, and how we struggled to win, I had to wonder. I mean, I would expect Virginia would tear George Mason and St Bonaventure new holes.
Actually, Virginia is all about defense and half-court sets offensively. They were a good matchup for us. Sure, they’ve blown some teams out, but VCU only lost by eight in a tight game and we lost by seven in a game that was winnable up to the last 59 seconds. They did beat GW by 19. People seem to forget George Mason was a top four pick in our league; they just had a lousy non-conference record. Yes, we should have beaten them, but that’s a senior-laden team that’s vying for the top four finish projected by A-10 coaches and most prognosticators. St. Bonaventure was decimated by early injuries.

I have a hard time wondering why some folks are so down on this team. We’re not going to the NCAA tourney barring a miracle run in Brooklyn, but we’re a botched shot or turnover away from being undefeated in the league — a league in which the COACHES predicted Dayton would finish sixth, with others in the media projecting us even lower.

This season isn’t over, and anything can happen — good OR bad. But for my money, I’m looking at a program that HAS made real progress and is at a minimum meeting if not exceeding the pre-season expectations of most rational people on this board.

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Old 01-30-2019, 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
I'm not baiting you here Season Ticket Fan, but I thought the same as you.
Only now it is not being reflected.

I cringe to think how we would fare now against the same teams. I expected we would cut through these lower level A-10 teams. The teams we played early improved a lot I would guess. Given the paltry teams we played, and how we struggled to win, I had to wonder. I mean, I would expect Virginia would tear George Mason and St Bonaventure new holes.
Conference games, especially on the road, are much more challenging to win than non-con Neutral court games. Teams know each other very well in conference, and there aren't many, if any, "off" nights against poor/cupcake competition in conference like you have in non-con.

You mention Virginia- they were just taken to OT by NC St last night and barely won...are they suddenly not a top 5 team now?

AG has this team in a good position: improving this year, while setting up to make the NCAAT in years 3 and 4. Next year, year 3, was always the target year to determine where AG has UD as a program. I have VERY high hopes based on recruiting and results this year...
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Old 01-30-2019, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted by forego1 View Post
I cringe to think how we would fare now against the same teams. I expected we would cut through these lower level A-10 teams. The teams we played early improved a lot I would guess. Given the paltry teams we played, and how we struggled to win, I had to wonder. I mean, I would expect Virginia would tear George Mason and St Bonaventure new holes.
Actually as of late three of those teams, Oklahoma, Miss. St. and Tulsa, are not playing as well as when we played them so I think there is a good chance that if we played the five of them all over again we would win at least one of those games.
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Old 01-30-2019, 06:00 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
Um, George Mason is in first place in the A14.
Um, George Mason is in 130th place in NCAA's NET Rankings.
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Old 01-30-2019, 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by shwag33 View Post
Lets be honest, every fanbase in the A10 want's their coach fired. St Joes only lost last night because their coach sucks according to them.

The reality is college basketball is mostly about recruiting great players and getting them to buy in. Don't get me wrong a coach can make a difference, but its way less than most give them credit for. A lot of games are won on the recruiting trail.
You might be right, I don't know, but I'm having a hard time buying "all in" on this theory re: the coach's value.

YES, the coaches with the best recruits are playing with somewhat of a stacked deck compared to others. But I think the coach's value in how he puts those parts together is extremely important and a critical piece. I also believe that there are coaches who recruit players for a system/program, similar to how Majerus used to, who might not be the 4 and 5 star recruits but are good fits to his style who make a massive difference. I also realize that there's not a lot of Majerus type coaches around anymore.
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Old 01-30-2019, 06:09 PM
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I do take back my stupid comment about being able to penetrate the NCAAT (win some games there). I agree completely that AG will bring in talent to be atop the A-10, as I've said multiple times.

If he gets Dayton into the tournament then it has lots to do with matching favorably or unfavorably.

I got sucked in here, venting thoughts, when mostly I wanted to agree that the next six games were interesting fare. I apologize for being negative, and I surely was that. Sorry.
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Old 01-31-2019, 09:58 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
You might be right, I don't know, but I'm having a hard time buying "all in" on this theory re: the coach's value.

YES, the coaches with the best recruits are playing with somewhat of a stacked deck compared to others. But I think the coach's value in how he puts those parts together is extremely important and a critical piece. I also believe that there are coaches who recruit players for a system/program, similar to how Majerus used to, who might not be the 4 and 5 star recruits but are good fits to his style who make a massive difference. I also realize that there's not a lot of Majerus type coaches around anymore.
I agree. I used to lean towards recruiting as the most important factor, but then I saw what Archie was able to do with that Elite 8 team and the following year when we were short handed. Those teams weren't blowing anybody away with talent on paper, but the results he got were amazing.
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Old 01-31-2019, 10:44 AM
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I think the PROGRAM is way ahead of where I thought we would be a year and a half into AG Taking over. On the court-results are slightly ahead. We finish the A10 with more than 10-12 wins this year, that will be ahead of almost all the pre-season predictions — setting aside those that said we would go undefeated.

What tips my scale into the “way ahead” opinion is what AG and staff have been able to do with recruiting and landing transfers. Next year we will have THREE 4-Star players and an additional ONE 3-Star player available to play. None of them will be freshmen...all will have a year in AGs system. And I think we have them all for 2 years or more.

When has UD EVER had that many 3-4 Star recruits on a team? Never?

I never saw that kind of haul coming a year and a half into AGs tenure and thus I have to say he is way ahead of my expectations. And the guy I’m expecting to be our best player, Obi Toppin, isn’t even in those all-star totals above. In the end it comes down to on-court results. Welcome to coaching. But AG is exceeding my expectations and I liked the hire from the start.

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Old 02-02-2019, 12:23 PM
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I would not be terribly disappointed with 3-3 in our next 6. They are all going to be tough. People say all we need to do is hold serve at home and steal one or two on the road. Well, those other teams are also going to be trying to hold serve at home and steal one on the road. I would love to go better than 3-3, but at this stage of the rebuild I would take 3-3. Then we could win 3 of our last 4 to get to 20. Next season would be another story.
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Old 02-02-2019, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
Actually, Virginia is all about defense and half-court sets offensively. They were a good matchup for us. Sure, they’ve blown some teams out, but VCU only lost by eight in a tight game and we lost by seven in a game that was winnable up to the last 59 seconds. They did beat GW by 19. People seem to forget George Mason was a top four pick in our league; they just had a lousy non-conference record. Yes, we should have beaten them, but that’s a senior-laden team that’s vying for the top four finish projected by A-10 coaches and most prognosticators. St. Bonaventure was decimated by early injuries.

I have a hard time wondering why some folks are so down on this team. We’re not going to the NCAA tourney barring a miracle run in Brooklyn, but we’re a botched shot or turnover away from being undefeated in the league — a league in which the COACHES predicted Dayton would finish sixth, with others in the media projecting us even lower.

This season isn’t over, and anything can happen — good OR bad. But for my money, I’m looking at a program that HAS made real progress and is at a minimum meeting if not exceeding the pre-season expectations of most rational people on this board.
Agree on all points except for one - "miracle run in Brooklyn". What would be SOOO miraculous about the Flyers winning the A10 tournament? We're currently in the Top 4 of the conference and have a reasonable shot (better than 50%) at finishing in the Top 4 and getting the critical double bye for a short-benched team.

There's not dragon in the A10 that appears to have the "upper hand" over the rest of the conference. If we finish in the Top 4, Dayton should have as good of a chance as anybody to walk out of Brooklyn with the trophy.
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  #35  
Old 02-02-2019, 02:05 PM
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Miracle in the sense we have just one A-10 tourney championship in our 25 years or so in this league, and that was on our home court. No, winning the bid in this league is not impossible, particularly this year. But there’s a lot of history stacked against us. I hope we make new history.
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Old 02-02-2019, 05:38 PM
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Winning three games in three days with only 7+ players would be miraculous, though.
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Old 02-02-2019, 05:47 PM
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Well, one down and it's a win. Not sure how much we really found out today (other than it's getting very hard for A10 teams to stop Obi). First half was terrible but I like the fact they showed some pride and played a much stronger second half.

I think the rule of thumb is home court is worth three or four points in college hoops. So based on today's outcome, this would be a "pick em" on a neutral court; and Dukes would be favored at home.

[I]Looking[I] like 3-3 to me, but I'm hopeful we can go 4-2.

If 3-3, I'm guessing we end up somewhere in the 3rd place to 5th place range (likely third or fourth assuming we take care of business with the bottom half of the league).

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Old 02-02-2019, 06:42 PM
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For myself, it was the first time seeing a determined mode of working past resistance to the wanted outcome.

That was a very good start to these six games..
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Old 02-03-2019, 03:41 PM
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What I care about most is finishing top 4 headed into the A10 tourney. A picture is starting to form now with a group of 1- and 2-loss teams. If these 4 teams, as a group, can keep away the challengers then we're good to go. Unfortunately for the Flyers, all but 1 of their remaining games are against either the current top 4 or the pack of 3-loss and 4-loss teams that still have a realistic goal of cracking the top 4. But from a taking care of business perspective each win against SLU and Rhody (with 4 chances ahead of them yet) will go a long way to keep others out of the top 4 party. Similarly, wins against LaSalle and at Duquesne help lock the door a bit. I'm ok with Davidson or George Mason winning the regular season championship (VCU winning it would suck) as long as Dayton has a top 4 seed for the tournament.
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Old 02-03-2019, 04:15 PM
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St. Bonnies is a tier B (quad 2) win in kenpom and Butler is a tier a (quad 1) win. Challenge is Dayton has played 4 top 20 teams in UVA, Ms. St., Auburn, and Oklahoma. Much easier to win quad 1 games ranked 26-50 like Butler than quad 1 games ranked 1-25 like those 4 teams.

2 good wins on the season in Butler and at St. Bonnies. 2 bad losses on the season in Tulsa and George Mason. Rest of losses are all to top 50 teams location adjusted (UVA, Ms. St., VCU, OK, and Auburn). If Dayton had beaten Tulsa and George Mason, would be on the bubble right now. This is good progress for year 2 which is always a tough in a rebuilding year.
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Old 02-03-2019, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
Actually, Virginia is all about defense and half-court sets offensively. They were a good matchup for us. Sure, they’ve blown some teams out, but VCU only lost by eight in a tight game and we lost by seven in a game that was winnable up to the last 59 seconds. They did beat GW by 19. People seem to forget George Mason was a top four pick in our league; they just had a lousy non-conference record. Yes, we should have beaten them, but that’s a senior-laden team that’s vying for the top four finish projected by A-10 coaches and most prognosticators. St. Bonaventure was decimated by early injuries.

I have a hard time wondering why some folks are so down on this team. We’re not going to the NCAA tourney barring a miracle run in Brooklyn, but we’re a botched shot or turnover away from being undefeated in the league — a league in which the COACHES predicted Dayton would finish sixth, with others in the media projecting us even lower.

This season isn’t over, and anything can happen — good OR bad. But for my money, I’m looking at a program that HAS made real progress and is at a minimum meeting if not exceeding the pre-season expectations of most rational people on this board.
I think the angst in some of the fan base is over how close this team been especially in OOC to being a tourney team.

A handful of plays/possessions from being in at large territory.

The big picture (things improving) gets lost
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Old 02-03-2019, 06:18 PM
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UD is 13-3 when tied or leading with 5 minutes left in the game this year. The conversation always feels like its just the opposite, but in reality we've more or less shut the door this year. Also 5-3 in games decided by 5pts or less.
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Old 02-04-2019, 03:40 PM
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5-3 in games of 5 pts. or less:

Let me see in real time what wins looks like 1 through 5 using NET rankings:

1) 55
2) 138
3) 203
4) 158
5) 244

"...but in reality we've more or less shut the door this year."

...the results verify your words
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  #44  
Old 02-05-2019, 08:49 AM
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How are we one point underdogs tonight to SLU at SLU after we escaped losing to Duquesne at home? Confused but will be watching and cheering tonight.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
How are we one point underdogs tonight to SLU at SLU after we escaped losing to Duquesne at home? Confused but will be watching and cheering tonight.
4 reasons:

1/23: St Louis 73, Duquesne 77
1/26: St Louis 53, Davidson 54
1/30: St Louis 81, Richmond 84
2/2: St. Louis 54, URI 65
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  #46  
Old 02-05-2019, 09:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
How are we one point underdogs tonight to SLU at SLU after we escaped losing to Duquesne at home? Confused but will be watching and cheering tonight.
I’m guessing you’re asking because you think we should be bigger ‘dogs in an away game against a preseason Top 4 pick after a close, come-from-behind win on our home court? My answer is, we’re playing a team that has lost 4 in a row, including 2 at home, that has a similarly short bench, and whose offense seems to run on as many cylinders as a ‘76 AMC Pacer that’s been in a barn for 30 years.

For my part, I see another close game, that will probably be decided by the infamous “5 points or less”, and while SLU should probably be favored, I picked our guys to win by 2.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
4 reasons:

1/23: St Louis 73, Duquesne 77
1/26: St Louis 53, Davidson 54
1/30: St Louis 81, Richmond 84
2/2: St. Louis 54, URI 65
And the Davidson and Richmond losses were at Chaifetz. Davidson, I can see. But Richmond? THIS YEAR’s Richmond?
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  #48  
Old 02-05-2019, 09:35 AM
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Thru this six game stretch I’m just looking for Ws. One point works for me. Next.
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Old 02-05-2019, 11:09 AM
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KC Hankton out.
Jevon Bess questionable.
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Old 02-05-2019, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer68 View Post
How are we one point underdogs tonight to SLU at SLU after we escaped losing to Duquesne at home? Confused but will be watching and cheering tonight.
Current line has Dayton favored by 2.5 points. Must be moving with Bess being questionable for SLU.
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  #51  
Old 02-05-2019, 05:38 PM
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Bess out will be big for us.
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Old 02-06-2019, 06:37 PM
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12-6 A-10 finish?

We have 8 league games left now. I think we are staring at finishing 3-1 at home and 2-2 on the road just reading the tea leaves for the remaining league season. Puts us at 7-2 at home, and 5-4 on the road = 12-6

Think it's a middle of the road forecast. Could do better, but we haven't shown that likely hood yet. I look for us to come out very angry and determined against Rhody.
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  #53  
Old 02-07-2019, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
We have 8 league games left now. I think we are staring at finishing 3-1 at home and 2-2 on the road just reading the tea leaves for the remaining league season. Puts us at 7-2 at home, and 5-4 on the road = 12-6

Think it's a middle of the road forecast. Could do better, but we haven't shown that likely hood yet. I look for us to come out very angry and determined against Rhody.
I think you're right SDF. I don't see the guys picking up a win on the road at Davidson which means they've got to pick up a win @ URI or Duq. URI is the better bet so they've got to come out with fire and pick up this next game. Should be able to knock off UMASS but stranger things have happened. The other possibility is to run the table at home and then just 1 roady at UMASS gets you there. Means you can't drop the VCU or SLU games in our building. Not too mention against both of those teams they've got the tie breaker. Time to knuckle down!
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  #54  
Old 02-07-2019, 01:39 PM
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Dayton is Consistently Inconsistent

They will surprise us often. More so with losses than unexpected wins. Let's all stop referring to Dayton as a good defensive team. Every winning defensive situation ends with a rebound.
Dayton does not box out in either man or zone defense. This team's coaches pay lip service to defense and focus entirely on offense.
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Old 02-07-2019, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Alberto Strasse View Post
They will surprise us often. More so with losses than unexpected wins. Let's all stop referring to Dayton as a good defensive team. Every winning defensive situation ends with a rebound.
Dayton does not box out in either man or zone defense. This team's coaches pay lip service to defense and focus entirely on offense.
As I do each road game, I silence the TV heads and turn on Larry and Bucky/Josh/Keith/Brooks. I want Flyer-centric insight, not 2 guys spewing the pre-game media notes to me throughout the broadcast. Josh worked the SLU game w/ Larry. After the first two posessions and 5 SLU offensive boards, Josh Postorino pointed out that "rebounding is all about finding someone and getting a body on them (boxing out 101)...not just going after the ball". From that moment on my focus was on the Flyers' approach to rebounding, which is/was EXACTLY what Josh said to NOT do...just rim running without regard to putting a body on the opponent. Obi is most guilty. Why this hasn't been drilled into their heads by now is sad. Why AG wouldn't spend his entire practice Weds on just that would be more disappointing.
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Old 02-23-2019, 09:05 PM
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So, 4-2 for those 6 games. Not bad, could have been 5-1, but I'll take these results.
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