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Old 02-04-2019, 01:11 PM
Buster Goode Buster Goode is offline
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The thin line to a NCAA tournament bid

We stand at 15-7 with virtually no consideration for an at-large bid right now. Two games sting us -- VCU and George Mason. If we hold on at the end to win those games, we are 17-5 with a completely different NCAA tournament look. I feel if we hold on in those games, we have an at-large right now.

BTW, the Backetology Hobbit has Butler as "Next Four Out" at 13-10 overall and 4-6 in the Big East. Obviously, we beat them on a neutral floor. There's the difference between A10 and BE.
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post

BTW, the Backetology Hobbit has Butler as "Next Four Out" at 13-10 overall and 4-6 in the Big East. Obviously, we beat them on a neutral floor. There's the difference between A10 and BE.
This is hilarious. Butler has zero chance at an at-large bid. None. Whatsoever.
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:58 PM
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I don't even know if being undefeated in the A10 right now would put us firmly in the NCAAT. We needed to win against Tulsa and/or Miss. St. Those are the more important losses right now, imo.

With that said, the goal is to finish as high in the A10 standings as possible and definitely in the top 4 for that tournament bye. It's 95% likely we have to win the A10 tourney to go dancing this year. VCU and Davidson would appear to be slightly ahead of us in NCAAT consideration at this point...could Obi Toppin's emergence give us that "passes the eye test" bump?
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Old 02-04-2019, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by 116 Chambers View Post
I don't even know if being undefeated in the A10 right now would put us firmly in the NCAAT. We needed to win against Tulsa and/or Miss. St. Those are the more important losses right now, imo.

With that said, the goal is to finish as high in the A10 standings as possible and definitely in the top 4 for that tournament bye. It's 95% likely we have to win the A10 tourney to go dancing this year. VCU and Davidson would appear to be slightly ahead of us in NCAAT consideration at this point...could Obi Toppin's emergence give us that "passes the eye test" bump?
The eye test would never apply to a non-P5.
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Old 02-04-2019, 03:16 PM
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Some current NET rankings: IU 43,VCU 48, Butler 55, Davidson 63, UD 88, X 93, Tulsa 99, URI 116, SLU 122, GM 127.

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Old 02-04-2019, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by 116 Chambers View Post
I don't even know if being undefeated in the A10 right now would put us firmly in the NCAAT. We needed to win against Tulsa and/or Miss. St. Those are the more important losses right now, imo.

With that said, the goal is to finish as high in the A10 standings as possible and definitely in the top 4 for that tournament bye. It's 95% likely we have to win the A10 tourney to go dancing this year. VCU and Davidson would appear to be slightly ahead of us in NCAAT consideration at this point...could Obi Toppin's emergence give us that "passes the eye test" bump?
I would think winning the A10 regular season outright, which is obviously not an easy task, would also give us a decent shot at getting in the NCAAT, regardless of whether we win the A10 tourney (barring a loss in our first game in the A10 tourney).

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Old 02-04-2019, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
We stand at 15-7 with virtually no consideration for an at-large bid right now. Two games sting us -- VCU and George Mason. If we hold on at the end to win those games, we are 17-5 with a completely different NCAA tournament look. I feel if we hold on in those games, we have an at-large right now.

BTW, the Backetology Hobbit has Butler as "Next Four Out" at 13-10 overall and 4-6 in the Big East. Obviously, we beat them on a neutral floor. There's the difference between A10 and BE.
Virginia and/or Miss. St stings worse, imo. One of those 2 wins would look very nicely on the resume after the season and they were games that were played before the identity of this team was formed. You're never going thru the conference without some losses...I never expected a W at VCU and never expected the L at home to GM so even at 8-1 it's not a ton different than 7-2. Going to have to win the A10 and/or A10 tourney as it is but if they are on the bubble having a W over a tremendous Virginia team or an excellent Miss st game would go a long way..
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:22 PM
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The Tulsa and GM game are the 2 that bug me the most. We played good teams on a neutral site. Needed to beat another team like us - Tulsa - on a neutral site. Laid an egg. Need to win home conference games period. It wasn't like GM played lights out to beat us. Remember Josh had been sick and did not start against Miss St.
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:58 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
I would think winning the A10 regular season outright, which is obviously not an easy task, would also give us a decent shot at getting in the NCAAT, regardless of whether we win the A10 tourney (barring a loss in our first game in the A10 tourney).
You could be right (and I hope you are), but we would probably need no surprise tournament teams from other conferences winning their conf tourneys...

Now, to win the A10 the game at Davidson becomes a MUST win, especially looking at our remaining schedule verses theirs. Also, beating VCU at home is a MUST win (pretty much all remaining home games need to be wins). I'm just not sure 14-4 is a realistic ask/expectation of this team. Next year? Yes.
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Old 02-04-2019, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
Some current NET rankings: IU 43,VCU 48, Butler 55, Davidson 63, UD 88, X 93, Tulsa 99, URI 116, SLU 122, GM 127.
Yep, the NET is designed to not give at-large bids to non power conferences (for the most part).

NC State has beat nobody of significance away from their home court. Their best win of the year is Auburn at home. They played a patsy non-con - almost all at home - and blew them out, thus getting "efficiency ratings" from the NET.

This past weekend that put up 24 points for the game - at home - against a good Va Tech team. They stayed at 33 in the NET. Look at their RPI using the system from last year - they are 125 - because they have a terrible schedule and played everything at home. With the NET, they are an NCAA lock with a decent seed.

Nebraska is 12-9, 109 RPI, but they too are in the NCAA with a 33 NET.

I rest my case...
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Old 02-04-2019, 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
This is hilarious. Butler has zero chance at an at-large bid. None. Whatsoever.
Butler is in the first four out in most brackets. They have a bunch of opportunities for quad 1 wins still. They are about 5-9 in Quad 1/2 games right now; remember when Oklahoma got in with a 4-12 record in Quad 1/2 games, in fact think they were a 8/9 seed.

Butler has a really good shot at getting in; probably 30-50% for an at-large.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

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Old 02-04-2019, 05:52 PM
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Folks, I'm telling you, we need to win a Nat'l Championship in the next 5-10 years or we never will. Why? Because in the future the NCAA championship will be the winner of the tournament manned by the P-5 Conferences. We non-majors, non-P5, will be regulated to the NIT.

Now, if/when we get in the BE, we will be allowed to once again play in the BIG BOYs TOURNEY.

Oh, one more option to get in P-5 hoop tourney. Build a 80,000 seat stadium and play big boy football.
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Old 02-04-2019, 08:50 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
Yep, the NET is designed to not give at-large bids to non power conferences (for the most part).

NC State has beat nobody of significance away from their home court. Their best win of the year is Auburn at home. They played a patsy non-con - almost all at home - and blew them out, thus getting "efficiency ratings" from the NET.

This past weekend that put up 24 points for the game - at home - against a good Va Tech team. They stayed at 33 in the NET. Look at their RPI using the system from last year - they are 125 - because they have a terrible schedule and played everything at home. With the NET, they are an NCAA lock with a decent seed.

Nebraska is 12-9, 109 RPI, but they too are in the NCAA with a 33 NET.

I rest my case...
Oh boy, as expected, this sounds like a complete and total disaster, as if things were not already hard enough for non-p5 schools.
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Old 02-04-2019, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Piqua Flyer '66 View Post
Folks, I'm telling you, we need to win a Nat'l Championship in the next 5-10 years or we never will. Why? Because in the future the NCAA championship will be the winner of the tournament manned by the P-5 Conferences. We non-majors, non-P5, will be regulated to the NIT.

Now, if/when we get in the BE, we will be allowed to once again play in the BIG BOYs TOURNEY.

Oh, one more option to get in P-5 hoop tourney. Build a 80,000 seat stadium and play big boy football.
I think the BE is going to find themselves on the outside looking in too. I canít believe the big boys like seeing the likes of Villanova walking away with the trophy.
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Butler is in the first four out in most brackets. They have a bunch of opportunities for quad 1 wins still. They are about 5-9 in Quad 1/2 games right now; remember when Oklahoma got in with a 4-12 record in Quad 1/2 games, in fact think they were a 8/9 seed.

Butler has a really good shot at getting in; probably 30-50% for an at-large.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com
Right, but at some point they are going to have to WIN some of those games. I'd love to see them go on a run and make our win look better, but that ain't gonna happen. They'll be lucky to finish above .500.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:05 AM
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I had no expectation of a post season this year, especially after Matos went down so I don’t find myself pondering “if only.” If we make the NCAA this year it will be because we win the A10 tourney.

It would be a great experience for the team but I am more interested in guys getting better and I see the development, (Obi, Cohill, Davis, Mikesell, etc...). That is what excites me. If guys continue to get better and half of what I hear about the transfers is true, next year should be really fun.
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Old 02-05-2019, 11:14 AM
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Good thread. Without the time to get into it, I can only say that Bedell's head is exploding right now. If a second A10 team wiggles their way in, he will crap his feedback pants. Literally tanker trucks of crow will exit 75 on to Edwin C.
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Old 02-05-2019, 11:19 AM
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I get that we needed a win against one of the good non-conference teams. The only one we had a legit chance was Mississippi State. Fortunately, I erased that one from my memory bank.

Really hard to believe if we were 9-0 in conference and 17-5 overall that we wouldn't be in the tournament field to date. SOS would be solid as well.

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Old 02-05-2019, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
Really hard to believe if we were 9-0 in conference and 17-5 overall that we wouldn't be in the tournament field to date. SOS would be solid as well.
We probably would but SOS is not something even worth looking at. It is quadrant wins and NET. A win at VCU would have been valuable for quad wins.

It will be very interesting to see what happens when non-P5 teams don't win their conference tourney but have a good NET ranking but no/few quad wins.
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Old 02-05-2019, 11:24 AM
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You are right Buster. I have to agree, we would at the very least be totally in the mix.
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Old 02-05-2019, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Good thread. Without the time to get into it, I can only say that Bedell's head is exploding right now. If a second A10 team wiggles their way in, he will crap his feedback pants. Literally tanker trucks of crow will exit 75 on to Edwin C.
He head would explode only if it was "contractually obligated".
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Old 02-05-2019, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
I get that we needed a win against one of the good non-conference teams. The only one we had a legit chance was Mississippi State. Fortunately, I erased that one from my memory bank.

Really hard to believe if we were 9-0 in conference and 17-5 overall that we wouldn't be in the tournament field to date. SOS would be solid as well.
Hard to know for sure without a cool website like RPI Wizard, but I'm guessing our NET would be somewhere in the 50s if we were 9-0. We'd also be receiving a good bit of national attention. Most real followers of college hoops know that despite it being a down year, the A10 has a ton of really good players and is never a cake-walk.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:11 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Hard to know for sure without a cool website like RPI Wizard, but I'm guessing our NET would be somewhere in the 50s if we were 9-0. We'd also be receiving a good bit of national attention. Most real followers of college hoops know that despite it being a down year, the A10 has a ton of really good players and is never a cake-walk.
By KenPom conference rankings the A10 is currently below the MAC, SoCon, and Ivy League.

It was exactly a cake walk for Rhode Island last year and may turn into that for Davidson this year. There are a few nice young teams, but the current form of the A10 is exactly that of a 1 bid, 11-12ish seed league.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:17 PM
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Exactly, and thus a radio personality who covers Dayton Flyers basketball, really ought to know that, and not be so silly to fall for the "THIS WHOLE A10 IS JUST TRASH" perspective, and therefore believing UD can just cake walk through. See all of our A10 BLOWOUTS THIS YEAR.

Talk about being in experienced; contractually speaking, right Figgie! Careful Figgie, he will be sending "shots" your way.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
Yep, the NET is designed to not give at-large bids to non power conferences (for the most part).

NC State has beat nobody of significance away from their home court. Their best win of the year is Auburn at home. They played a patsy non-con - almost all at home - and blew them out, thus getting "efficiency ratings" from the NET.

This past weekend that put up 24 points for the game - at home - against a good Va Tech team. They stayed at 33 in the NET. Look at their RPI using the system from last year - they are 125 - because they have a terrible schedule and played everything at home. With the NET, they are an NCAA lock with a decent seed.

Nebraska is 12-9, 109 RPI, but they too are in the NCAA with a 33 NET.

I rest my case...
This is really hard to understand. It is not just the NET, CBS and www.bracketmatrix.com also both have NCSU and Nebraska either in or in the first four out.


https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/


IINM, the worst RPI ever to get an at-large bid was probably around the high 60's.

No teams with a 100+ RPI should even be in consideration at all, they should not even be close to being in consideration.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

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Old 02-05-2019, 01:52 PM
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Per the CBS page.

NCSU is 1-5 in q1 games and 4-0 in q2 games...351 ncsos...200 sos.

Nebraska is 2-6 in q1 games and 3-3 in q2 games...214 ncsos...81 sos.

This looks like an absolute joke.

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Old 02-05-2019, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Per the CBS page.

NCSU is 1-5 in q1 games and 4-0 in q2 games...351 ncsos...200 sos.

Nebraska is 2-6 in q1 games and 3-3 in q2 games...214 ncsos...81 sos.

This looks like an absolute joke.
One more way for the rich (P5) to get richer.
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Talk about being in experienced; contractually speaking, right Figgie! Careful Figgie, he will be sending "shots" your way.
You think I care about Bedell taking shots at me? Bring it on, mf'er. I am constantly annoyed listening to him on Flyer Feedback. If I could find a way to stream a postgame show with quality, I'd do it. But, as rollo said at the Royal Roundtable, I have a wife, kids, and responsibilities, therefore, don't have the time to invest in it.

But, the "contractually obligated" crap should end. WHIO and UD should be ashamed that the host of the post-game call-in show says that 8 out of 10 shows.
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Old 02-05-2019, 02:56 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
This is really hard to understand. It is not just the NET, CBS and www.bracketmatrix.com also both have NCSU and Nebraska either in or in the first four out.


https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/


IINM, the worst RPI ever to get an at-large bid was probably around the high 60's.

No teams with a 100+ RPI should even be in consideration at all, they should not even be close to being in consideration.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on.
That's because the NET is a key determinant in getting in this year. The RPI will not be used.

And the NCAA is in full transparency - they won't let anyone know how the formula works.

NC State clearly already figured out what was needed - patsy home court non-con and blow them all out. They scored 24 points at home in a loss this weekend and did not move down even 1 position in the NET.
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Old 02-05-2019, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
You think I care about Bedell taking shots at me? Bring it on, mf'er. I am constantly annoyed listening to him on Flyer Feedback. If I could find a way to stream a postgame show with quality, I'd do it. But, as rollo said at the Royal Roundtable, I have a wife, kids, and responsibilities, therefore, don't have the time to invest in it.

But, the "contractually obligated" crap should end. WHIO and UD should be ashamed that the host of the post-game call-in show says that 8 out of 10 shows.

I haven't listened to flyer feedback in awhile. What exactly is John Bedall saying is "contractually obligated"?
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Old 02-05-2019, 03:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I haven't listened to flyer feedback in awhile. What exactly is John Bedall saying is "contractually obligated"?
After the George Mason game, he didn't want to talk at all, but said they were obligated to. And then almost each show he says it in regards to sending it back to the Arena for coaches post-game comments.
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Old 02-05-2019, 04:16 PM
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Links from the NCAA as of yesterdays games on
NET team sheets, NET nitty gritty reports, and conference rankings
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi...ages/Home.aspx
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Old 02-05-2019, 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
You think I care about Bedell taking shots at me? Bring it on, mf'er. I am constantly annoyed listening to him on Flyer Feedback. If I could find a way to stream a postgame show with quality, I'd do it. But, as rollo said at the Royal Roundtable, I have a wife, kids, and responsibilities, therefore, don't have the time to invest in it.

But, the "contractually obligated" crap should end. WHIO and UD should be ashamed that the host of the post-game call-in show says that 8 out of 10 shows.
Come on Figgie, lets do a post game show. I will help you. I have been told more than once I have the perfect face for radio
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Old 02-05-2019, 04:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
You think I care about Bedell taking shots at me? Bring it on, mf'er. I am constantly annoyed listening to him on Flyer Feedback. If I could find a way to stream a postgame show with quality, I'd do it. But, as rollo said at the Royal Roundtable, I have a wife, kids, and responsibilities, therefore, don't have the time to invest in it.

But, the "contractually obligated" crap should end. WHIO and UD should be ashamed that the host of the post-game call-in show says that 8 out of 10 shows.
I'm an out-of-towner and don't get the opportunity to listen to such. Can you enlighten me on what the issue is? Or the reference to the "issue"?

Thanks.
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Old 02-05-2019, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
I'm an out-of-towner and don't get the opportunity to listen to such. .
So I was out of town Saturday and traveling when the game started. My wife pulled the game up on her cell phone on whio's web site. We were just north of New Orleans at the time on Interstate 59. We listened to the Larry and Bucky for the last 30 minutes of the game as we traveled north and the post game show till after Anthonys post game interview. In this time period we covered about 150 miles or so of interstate and was north of Hattiesburg Mississippi when we turned it off. Crystal clear connection the entire time, the sound never once faded or buffered. Heck, we do not get that good of reception in Dayton at times when turning on WHIO,

Out of town is no longer an excuse
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Old 02-05-2019, 05:02 PM
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1) bring back George L'Heureux or Enthusiadams.

2) 24 wins is the absolute minimum for an at-large IMO. I'm even starting to think maybe 25. 24 would require nine more wins. There are nine more in the regular season and potentially three more in Brooklyn. It's a tall order for sure. I'll wait and see how the next 6 games go as I could see anything between 0 and 6 wins being possible.
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Old 02-05-2019, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
So I was out of town Saturday and traveling when the game started. My wife pulled the game up on her cell phone on whio's web site. We were just north of New Orleans at the time on Interstate 59. We listened to the Larry and Bucky for the last 30 minutes of the game as we traveled north and the post game show till after Anthonys post game interview. In this time period we covered about 150 miles or so of interstate and was north of Hattiesburg Mississippi when we turned it off. Crystal clear connection the entire time, the sound never once faded or buffered. Heck, we do not get that good of reception in Dayton at times when turning on WHIO,

Out of town is no longer an excuse
Got it, thanks. I am happy when I have time to listen to/watch an entire game, let alone think about a post game show. So what's the "issue"?
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Old 02-05-2019, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Got it, thanks. I am happy when I have time to listen to/watch an entire game, let alone think about a post game show. So what's the "issue"?
I have not listened but from what I understand from reading here - John Bedell is a d!ck.
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Old 02-05-2019, 05:29 PM
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Heck, I'm an in-towner, and most of the time I'm watching the game on "tape delay" on my DVR hours after its completed. I'm actually looking forward to tonight's 9:00 tip off, kids will be in bed by 9:30 meaning I'll be able to watch much of the 2nd half "live"


Only time I catch the post game show is when I'm in attendance and turn it on on my way home from the arena. I can understand why an out of towner wouldn't tune in
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Old 02-05-2019, 05:40 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer View Post
That's because the NET is a key determinant in getting in this year. The RPI will not be used.

And the NCAA is in full transparency - they won't let anyone know how the formula works.

NC State clearly already figured out what was needed - patsy home court non-con and blow them all out. They scored 24 points at home in a loss this weekend and did not move down even 1 position in the NET.
Lipscomb is net #32, getting a 12 seed per the bracketologists, NCSU and Nebraska have worse net rankings but much better seeds. Makes no sense, can not have it both ways.

Same goes for net #27 Wofford, and net #37 Utah State, who is not even projected to make it into the field, yet several p5 schools with worse net ratings are projected to make the ncaat.

Last edited by ud2; 02-05-2019 at 06:01 PM..
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:16 PM
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I reference back to something I wrote in another thread; and that being that I strongly suspect the NCAA Selection Committee will be looking back at the RPI on Selection Weekend, to compare and evaluate how it compares to the filed their newer tools are producing. I would be shocked if there is not private talk amongst the committee to make sure the new formula is not creating an unusually scandalous outcome; whatever that means in NCAA Selection World.
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
I reference back to something I wrote in another thread; and that being that I strongly suspect the NCAA Selection Committee will be looking back at the RPI on Selection Weekend, to compare and evaluate how it compares to the filed their newer tools are producing. I would be shocked if there is not private talk amongst the committee to make sure the new formula is not creating an unusually scandalous outcome; whatever that means in NCAA Selection World.
As opposed to the usually scandalous outcome.
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:33 PM
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No doubt. But I guess what I am saying is that the RPI numbers are not likely to be a total non-factor. So perhaps your RPI will still matter to some extent the next couple of years.
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:36 PM
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This probably isn't the year to be putting a lot of stock into bracketologists, either individually or collectively (on a site like bracketmatrix)... this is the second year of quadrants replacing SOS and the first year of NET's existence. I think it's possible to have a basic grasp on the quadrants thing, but it's a huge improbability that anyone's gonna figure out a metric that didn't exist last year and which is now the primary driving consideration for the selection committee.

Your most diligent pundits are going to be guessing at exactly how things shake out given all these changes. And it seems pretty clear to me that there are many less diligent ones who are either unaware of the changes, or who have not sufficiently changed their own methodology to reflect how significant they are.

My money's on the NCAA leaning on the committee to make sure the final field reflects the NET ratings, if only to justify its creation and instant rise to supremacy. If there are issues where committee members don't agree, all the NCAA has to do is change the NET formula (it's a closed box, they haven't told us what it is, and they won't have to tell us if it changes) to make the results better match the desired outcome in the future.

With that in mind, I'm quite certain the ship has sailed on the Flyers' chances of an at-large bid. RPI no longer matters. Simple achieving a certain number of wins is irrelevant. Regular season conference title, meaningless. If there's a way to "game the NET," it doesn't involve just winning, it'll be HOW you win games.... specifically, NET includes offensive and defensive efficiency and claims to account for margin of victory, too.

I've been using this site as my replacement for RPIForecast all year:

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&...yton&year=2019

Even if you hit the "Win Out" option, UD only makes the dance as the presumptive tourney champ, and only has a 0.2% chance of an at-large (and #72 in final NET, despite being a top 25 team in ELO, which is closer to what the RPI was designed to be).

But maybe if there was an option for "Bludgeon Out," with all flawlessly played wins by 20 points, the NET would take notice (NET actually caps the bonus for margin of victory once you win by 10, but I'm assuming flawless play will result in even larger margins).... I don't think that's forthcoming, so yeah...

We don't have to like it as Flyer fans. As basketball fans, we sure as hell don't have to like the NCAA moving the goal posts in such a shady and mysterious way. But I think it's safe to say it's Auto Bid or Bust this year.
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia View Post
This probably isn't the year to be putting a lot of stock into bracketologists, either individually or collectively (on a site like bracketmatrix)... this is the second year of quadrants replacing SOS and the first year of NET's existence. I think it's possible to have a basic grasp on the quadrants thing, but it's a huge improbability that anyone's gonna figure out a metric that didn't exist last year and which is now the primary driving consideration for the selection committee.

Your most diligent pundits are going to be guessing at exactly how things shake out given all these changes. And it seems pretty clear to me that there are many less diligent ones who are either unaware of the changes, or who have not sufficiently changed their own methodology to reflect how significant they are.

My money's on the NCAA leaning on the committee to make sure the final field reflects the NET ratings, if only to justify its creation and instant rise to supremacy. If there are issues where committee members don't agree, all the NCAA has to do is change the NET formula (it's a closed box, they haven't told us what it is, and they won't have to tell us if it changes) to make the results better match the desired outcome in the future.

With that in mind, I'm quite certain the ship has sailed on the Flyers' chances of an at-large bid. RPI no longer matters. Simple achieving a certain number of wins is irrelevant. Regular season conference title, meaningless. If there's a way to "game the NET," it doesn't involve just winning, it'll be HOW you win games.... specifically, NET includes offensive and defensive efficiency and claims to account for margin of victory, too.

I've been using this site as my replacement for RPIForecast all year:

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&...yton&year=2019

Even if you hit the "Win Out" option, UD only makes the dance as the presumptive tourney champ, and only has a 0.2% chance of an at-large (and #72 in final NET, despite being a top 25 team in ELO, which is closer to what the RPI was designed to be).

But maybe if there was an option for "Bludgeon Out," with all flawlessly played wins by 20 points, the NET would take notice (NET actually caps the bonus for margin of victory once you win by 10, but I'm assuming flawless play will result in even larger margins).... I don't think that's forthcoming, so yeah...

We don't have to like it as Flyer fans. As basketball fans, we sure as hell don't have to like the NCAA moving the goal posts in such a shady and mysterious way. But I think it's safe to say it's Auto Bid or Bust this year.
Your point is well taken for the Flyers. Even if we win out, we most likely will still be squeaking by and those kind of wins don't move the needle on NET. We also will not be picking up any big time quad wins.

I'm with Beatty Town Coach that the committee has to look at some other metrics whether it is RPI or KenPom or something else to make sure the end result passes the sniff test. If NET is the thing then the committee better reward the low/mid majors with low NET rankings the same as the P5 with similar rankings.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia View Post

Even if you hit the "Win Out" option, UD only makes the dance as the presumptive tourney champ, and only has a 0.2% chance of an at-large (and #72 in final NET, despite being a top 25 team in ELO, which is closer to what the RPI was designed to be).
Interesting that we would only move up 16 NET spots by winning out. My gut tells that can't be right.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:39 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Got it, thanks. I am happy when I have time to listen to/watch an entire game, let alone think about a post game show. So what's the "issue"?
Beatty has some issues about either some of the regular callers, or how Bedell responds to certain callers and dismisses them.

I have issues with his "contractually obligated" quotes when he has to either send to commercial, or back to the arena for coach's post-game comments. It reeks of "I'm only doing this because I'm being paid."

Yes, the Flyers lose, and you need to talk about. Talk about why we lost, or how poorly we played, but to try and dismiss it all and act like you don't want to even talk about it, just seems unprofessional to me.

Just my opinion, of course.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:43 PM
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I use to listen to Mr Adams show on a regular basis way back when. He always brought in Rita and a few regulars ......

The postgame show is currently not something to wait and listen to. And it hasn't been for a number of years.

They sound bored if you ask me (and yes, I know, no one on here asked my opinion )
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:49 PM
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I really doubt there is room in the NCAAt for little olde Dayton unless maybe next year. Unless we win the Tournament outright with whatever the win/loss says we will not be there but maybe an NIT location but not the big boys playground ...

Nope that thin line is thinner than can be detected by the naked eye.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Interesting that we would only move up 16 NET spots by winning out. My gut tells that can't be right.
I think it is interesting that he is able to calculate out a NET ranking in the future at all. One of the pieces of NET is efficiency, which is based on stats from games, and scoring margin. So, he must only update the other pieces of NET that he can figure based on RPI and winning percentage.
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Old 02-05-2019, 11:16 PM
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