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02-06-2020, 02:44 PM
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Slipper Still Fits
@slipperstillfit
Looking at the KenPom top 10 on the first day of the season vs today is kind of crazy. Here is the top 10 as it stands right now.
Baylor started at No. 13
Maryland started at No. 16
Dayton started at No. 57
West Virginia started at No. 59
San Diego State started at No. 97.
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02-06-2020, 03:18 PM
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Top 16 projected seeds to be released at 12:30 on Saturday. Will we be a 2 or a 3? Based on our NET ranking of #5, we should be a 2, but based on power conference bias I would expect a 3.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...v-channel-what
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02-06-2020, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69
Top 16 projected seeds to be released at 12:30 on Saturday. Will we be a 2 or a 3? Based on our NET ranking of #5, we should be a 2, but based on power conference bias I would expect a 3.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...v-channel-what
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Not necessarily a conference bias if a power team gets a 2 seed ahead of us...We know how good this team is, unfortunately our overall resume is lacking good wins.
Georgia and Virginia Tech are a combined 7-14 in conference and St. Mary's has 3 losses in a conference that is comparable with the A-10. Wouldn't be surprised at all if a Big 10, Big 12 or Big East team leaps us for a 2 or 3 seed if they make a run in their conference tournament
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02-06-2020, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69
Top 16 projected seeds to be released at 12:30 on Saturday. Will we be a 2 or a 3? Based on our NET ranking of #5, we should be a 2, but based on power conference bias I would expect a 3.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...v-channel-what
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We'll be a 2-seed when these are released on Saturday, IMO. I don't believe there is a power conference bias. Folks have been suggesting Duke, and even Nova, would have jumped us in the last 2 poll releases, due to the mythical "power conference bias", but it simply hasn't happened. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist in some form or fashion. I don't think it's as much a bias as it is an "uneven" playing field as it relates to quality wins and the drastically disproportionate opportunities for quality wins.
What I'm most interested in is seeing how the committee weighs some of the metrics, where the Flyers are really, really strong, like NET, KenPom, BPI, the old RPI vs a Flyers' resume that's lacking in true Quality wins. We only have 3 Q1 wins, which is the lowest of any of the teams with a reasonable case for a Top 16 seed. That's tied with Louisville, Auburn and Michigan St. And our Q1 wins are not real strong either (St. Mary's @ Richmond, @ Duquesne). @ SLU WAS a Q1 and it swapped places with the Dukes after last night's win at SLU.
At 7-2 Q1&Q2, we'll still be well below total quality wins MOST of the others vying for Top seeds. We've been really, really strong on the road. And our only 2 losses are both Q1. Not many can lay claim to such.
VTech and Georgia are absolutely killing us. VTech's lost 4 in a row and Georgia was up like 20+ on the road against both Mizzou and Florida and they crap their pants.
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02-06-2020, 04:38 PM
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I'll be pleasantly surprised if UD is a 2 seed on saturday morning. Perhaps they're resume isn't much different from others in the conversation but atm, they don't have a single win over a sure fire NCAA team. St Mary's is the closest, and they'd be in if the field was announced today, but they are far from a lock.
Metrics are good however, so might give some insight into what the committee is looking at/for. Duke will make an interesting comparison, with wins over Kansas and Michigan St, Duke has better wins than UD, but they also have the losses @ Clemson and home for SFA. Both are toe to toe in Torvik, Duke is slightly ahead of UD at KenPom, Dayton is 1 spot ahead of Duke in NET; not sure about other places.
No matter where UD's name comes up, or even if it doesn't at all (now that would be a shocker), there is still work to be done, starting as soon as 90 minutes after the release is official.
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02-06-2020, 05:48 PM
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We are so focused on UD that we forget that San Diego State and Gonzaga have to face the same issues. SDS has 4 Q1 and 4 Q2. The Zags have 4 and 3 and we have 3 and 4. Not a big difference. They going keep us all out?
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02-07-2020, 07:58 AM
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Results for the Week of Feb 3rd:
1. Baylor - W @ K St 2/3, vs OK St 2/8
2. Gonzaga - W vs Loyal 2/6, @ SMC 2/8
3. Kansas - W vs Texas 2/3, @ TCU 2/8
4. SDS - @ AF 2/8
5. Lou - W vs WF 2/5, vs Vir 2/8
6. OUR Dayton Flyers - vs St. Lou 2/8
7. Duke - W @ BC 2/4, @ UNC 2/8
8. Florida St. - W vs UNC 2/3, vs Miami 2/8
9. Maryland - W vs Rutgers 2/4, @ ILL 2/7
10. Nova - L @ Butler 2/5, vs SH 2/8
11. Auburn - W @ Ark 2/4, vs LSU 2/8
Just the Zags in Action and they won. Everyone in front of us plays on Saturday.
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02-07-2020, 09:58 AM
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It's funny. At the beginning of the season, I was watching each top 25 game and rooting for each team to lose, especially the ones in the bottom of the 25. Now I find myself just worrying about 5-10 teams. This is amazing. I like this version better.
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02-07-2020, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by John C.
It's funny. At the beginning of the season, I was watching each top 25 game and rooting for each team to lose, especially the ones in the bottom of the 25. Now I find myself just worrying about 5-10 teams. This is amazing. I like this version better.
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Yeah - lot easier to track when it is just 7 teams that can affect your ranking. Sadly I say 7 because if the top 7 win on Saturday - that means we will drop from 6th to 7th - as Duke with wins at BC and then at UNC would trump our one Win at home vs SLU - 29 pts is not enough of a gap to stave off Duke in that scenario. Which means the UNC game is the second most important game for us this weekend. (standard disclaimer - this only maters if we take care of business at home)
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02-07-2020, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by John C.
It's funny. At the beginning of the season, I was watching each top 25 game and rooting for each team to lose, especially the ones in the bottom of the 25. Now I find myself just worrying about 5-10 teams. This is amazing. I like this version better.
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In years past at this time, we were hoping for top 10-20 teams to win and take down a bubble team in the process. This version is WAY better than that also.
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02-07-2020, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
Yeah - lot easier to track when it is just 7 teams that can affect your ranking. Sadly I say 7 because if the top 7 win on Saturday - that means we will drop from 6th to 7th - as Duke with wins at BC and then at UNC would trump our one Win at home vs SLU - 29 pts is not enough of a gap to stave off Duke in that scenario. Which means the UNC game is the second most important game for us this weekend. (standard disclaimer - this only maters if we take care of business at home)
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Beating BC and UNC isn't going to change anyone's opinion on Duke this season. Losing or struggling at home vs SLU will change their opinion on UD. While the AP rankings are nice, more importantly, beating BC and UNC isn't going to change the metrics in NET, where Dayton also has a lead on Duke, if UD takes care of their end of the bargain.
Duke has FSU at home on Monday, winning that game will change the outlook both in the AP and in NET for Duke, but if UD takes care of SLU, Rhody and UMass (?) they'll stay ahead of the loser the following Monday for sure, and perhaps even maintain a lead in whatever metric you want to win.
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02-07-2020, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
Yeah - lot easier to track when it is just 7 teams that can affect your ranking. Sadly I say 7 because if the top 7 win on Saturday - that means we will drop from 6th to 7th - as Duke with wins at BC and then at UNC would trump our one Win at home vs SLU - 29 pts is not enough of a gap to stave off Duke in that scenario. Which means the UNC game is the second most important game for us this weekend. (standard disclaimer - this only maters if we take care of business at home)
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If I had to pick the second most important game for UD this weekend, beyond the UD/ SLU game itself, I would probably be picking Gonzaga at St. Mary's. That's for any metric, including the rankings/polls.
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02-07-2020, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
If I had to pick the second most important game for UD this weekend, beyond the UD/SLU game itself, I would probably be picking Gonzaga at St. Mary's. That's for any metric, including the rankings/polls.
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exactly! if Saint Marys can get a win over Gonzaga, we can say in our narrative that we now have a legitimate NCAA Tournament bound team win. While we like the only games we lost were in overtime against Kansas and Colorado “narrative, I personally don’t see that as worthy of a one and probably two seed, and I believe the committee will say likewise.
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02-07-2020, 10:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
exactly! if Saint Marys can get a win over Gonzaga, we can say in our narrative that we now have a legitimate NCAA Tournament bound team win. While we like the only games we lost were in overtime against Kansas and Colorado “narrative, I personally don’t see that as worthy of a one and probably two seed, and I believe the committee will say likewise.
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Win or lose against Gonzaga, I'm pretty sure Saint Mary's is a tournament bound team right now. They are a solid 10 seed in the Bracket Matrix - losing to the #2 team in the country won't hurt them.
_____________________
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02-08-2020, 11:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go
Here are the single game chances.
SLU 91%
URI 85%
@Umass 91%
@Vcu 63%
Duquesne 92%
@GMU 89%
Davidson 92%
@URI 64%
GW 98%
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Kenpom is downgrading our AdjEM. Here are new win probabilities as of 2/8/20:
83% URI
91% @Umass
60% @VCU
91% Duquesne
88% @GMU
91% Davidson
61% @URI
98% GW
This means our chance to win out the regular season stays about the same.
20% Chance to win out the regular season
39% Chance to we lose one and only one game in the rest of the regular season
50% Chance we win the A10 tournament
10% Chance we win out the season and tournament
Last edited by Go-UD-Go; 02-08-2020 at 11:21 PM..
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02-08-2020, 11:23 PM
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[QUOTE=Glen Clark;613647]Win or lose against Gonzaga, I'm pretty sure Saint Mary's is a tournament bound team right now. They are a solid 10 seed in the Bracket Matrix - losing to the #2 team in the country won't hurt them.
Zags absolutely manhandling SMC and shooting 70%.
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02-09-2020, 12:02 AM
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Results for the Week of Feb 3rd:
1. Baylor - W @ K St 2/3, W vs OK St 2/8 - Won Both staying Put
2. Gonzaga - W vs Loyal 2/6, W @ SMC 2/8 - Won Both Staying put.
3. Kansas - W vs Texas 2/3, W@ TCU 2/8 - Won Both Staying put
4. SDS - W @ AF 2/8 - Won Staying put
5. Lou - W vs WF 2/5, W vs Vir 2/8 - Won Both Staying put
6. OUR Dayton Flyers - W vs St. Lou 2/8 - We will drop to 7 as Duke will jump us.
7. Duke - W @ BC 2/4, W @ UNC 2/8 - Won Both - jumping up to 6th place.
8. Florida St. - W vs UNC 2/3, W vs Miami 2/8 - Won Both - staying put
9. Maryland - W vs Rutgers 2/4, W @ ILL 2/7 - Won Both Staying put
10. Nova - L @ Butler 2/5, L vs SH 2/8 - Lost both dropping out of the top 10.
11. Auburn - W @ Ark 2/4, W vs LSU 2/8 - Won Both moving to 10th place
No one above us lost this week and Duke had two big road wins - Duke will jump up to 6th an we will drop down to 7th. If UNC was not channeling SLU at the line things would be different.
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02-09-2020, 07:35 AM
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Not sure Duke should jump Dayton. Beating UNC in overtime with a depleted and injured bench or would the case be made that it would be 2 wins vs, our one win?
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02-09-2020, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyer Dave
Not sure Duke should jump Dayton. Beating UNC in overtime with a depleted and injured bench or would the case be made that it would be 2 wins vs, our one win?
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Dukes other win is vs. BC whose net is similar to Drake and N Ky and I doubt if anyone here would call those big wins
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02-09-2020, 10:20 AM
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I agree. Not sure Duke would jump us, even with 2 road wins. UNC is lame (and so is BC) and it took OT to beat UNC.
We are also ahead of Duke in the NET and RPI. Not sure if that matters or not? It might.
Either way...
Go Flyers!
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02-09-2020, 10:56 AM
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Here are the likely Top 10 for the week of Feb 10th and their games for the week:
1. Baylor - @ Texas 2/10, vs WVU 2/15
2. Gonzaga - @ Pepper 2/15
3. Kansas - @ WVU 2/12, vs OK 2/15
4. SDS - vs NM 2/11, @ Boise 2/16
5. Lou - @ G Tech 2/12, @ Clem 2/15
6. Duke - vs FSU 2/10, vs ND 2/15
7. OUR Dayton Flyers - vs RI 2/11, @ UMass 2/15
8. Florida St. - @ Duke 2/10, vs Syr 2/15
9. Maryland - vs Neb 2/11, @ MSU 2/15
10. Auburn - vs Bama 2/12, @ MIzzu 2/15
There is a very small chance we stay at number 6 - but given the NCAA committee put out their rankings for top seeds - and they had Duke ahead of us - and Duke was closing the gap the past couple of weeks. I do not think we can hold them off with the voters this week. Likely they wind up 10 to 15 pts ahead of us.
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02-09-2020, 12:04 PM
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Most voters probably saw that game.... it was basically a loss to a bad team. If they watched that and duke still jumps us I'd be shocked.
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02-09-2020, 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted by shwag33
Most voters probably saw that game.... it was basically a loss to a bad team. If they watched that and duke still jumps us I'd be shocked.
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It was basically a win, very similar to our win at SLU.
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02-09-2020, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
It was basically a win, very similar to our win at SLU.
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Honestly it was worse than that. I'm not sure if you saw it, it wasn't like duke just hit a last second shot. UNC did everything in their power to blow two 5 point leads under a minute in regulation and OT.
They managed to pull it off twice... pure incompetence.
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02-09-2020, 12:51 PM
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I expect UD to remain #6
However I think the following week since Duke & Florida State plays each, the winner likely jumps us assuming they win their other game that week
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02-09-2020, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
There is a very small chance we stay at number 6 - but given the NCAA committee put out their rankings for top seeds - and they had Duke ahead of us - and Duke was closing the gap the past couple of weeks. I do not think we can hold them off with the voters this week. Likely they wind up 10 to 15 pts ahead of us.
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Agree, Duke did not jump us last week, but they will this week. Louisville, Duke, and WV have all leapfrogged us on www.bracketmatrix.com too. But, WV lost to Oklahoma yesterday.
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02-09-2020, 01:30 PM
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CBS Top 25 and 1 has us at 6 with Maryland at 7. No change from last week.
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02-09-2020, 01:53 PM
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Just noticed on the CBS At The Half show during the Wisky/ OSU game that the Dayton logo is front and center on the set in the background.
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02-09-2020, 03:10 PM
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On the bracket reveal they had Dayton at #6 overall and Louisville #7. So are we going to argue that Louisville should drop 2 spots in the Top 25 this week? I think what that bracket shows in part is that they took care in protecting the #2 seeds as much as possible. Duke got the East, Dayton got the Midwest, and Louisville got the South. Only W Virginia got sent out of region. So it’s possible the committee saw Louisville at 5, Dayton at 6, Duke at 7 but wanted to keep all 3 relatively close to home. Louisville would be the one to complain most in that scenario of course.
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02-09-2020, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by redbengal
On the bracket reveal they had Dayton at #6 overall and Louisville #7. So are we going to argue that Louisville should drop 2 spots in the Top 25 this week? I think what that bracket shows in part is that they took care in protecting the #2 seeds as much as possible. Duke got the East, Dayton got the Midwest, and Louisville got the South. Only W Virginia got sent out of region. So it’s possible the committee saw Louisville at 5, Dayton at 6, Duke at 7 but wanted to keep all 3 relatively close to home. Louisville would be the one to complain most in that scenario of course.
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It is more around those voters that have both us and Duke lower than Nova or WV or some other school that lost last week - but those two were the key ones. And now when they move both of us up - are they moving us up in order or moving Duke ahead of us.
Based on some of the ballots out there it does not look good for us holding on to 6th. It should be very close either way. What I think will also hurt us is that Georgia, VT and St. Mary's have been losing. I am starting to see the narrative - "but they did not beat any top teams." - popping up. We will see tomorrow - again all we can do is keep winning. If we are sitting at 32-2 on Selection Sunday chances would be real good for a 1 seed.
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02-09-2020, 10:56 PM
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I think we hold steady at #6, ahead of Duke. Still a small sample size, but of the ballots I’ve seen published on Twitter, pretty much all have us ahead of Duke and several have us 4 and 5 spots ahead of Duke.
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02-10-2020, 12:09 PM
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02-10-2020, 12:17 PM
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Something seems off on the point totals... every team in the top 7 lost points compared to the prior week, no reason to shake up the top of the rankings too much, certainly not to the point were Baylor, Kansas & Gonzaga all lost points....seems like the points listed are missing a voter, perhaps someone failed to submit their ballot?
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02-10-2020, 12:19 PM
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I should also add, with the bracket preview released, anyone else feel like this matters much less? The pub is nice, but outside of winning, I just want to maintain/improve upon that 2 seed, 6th overall that they placed UD at.
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02-10-2020, 12:24 PM
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We gained ground on Louisville and picked up some space on Duke.
I'm with Medford, I'm paying more attention to the Committee's 16 seeds and who we're jostling with there, although it's pretty much the same - Duke, WVU, Louisville, Maryland, Seton Hall, FSU and now Auburn too.
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02-10-2020, 12:31 PM
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Actual Top 10 for the week of Feb 10th and their games for the week:
1. Baylor - @ Texas 2/10, vs WVU 2/15
2. Gonzaga - @ Pepper 2/15
3. Kansas - @ WVU 2/12, vs OK 2/15
4. SDS - vs NM 2/11, @ Boise 2/16
5. Lou - @ G Tech 2/12, @ Clem 2/15
6. OUR Dayton Flyers - vs RI 2/11, @ UMass 2/15
7. Duke - vs FSU 2/10, vs ND 2/15
8. Florida St. - @ Duke 2/10, vs Syr 2/15
9. Maryland - vs Neb 2/11, @ MSU 2/15
10. Seaton Hall - vs Creighton 2/12, @Prov 2/15
11. Auburn - vs Bama 2/12, @ MIzzu 2/15
Really happy I was wrong about Duke jumping us. And that we pulled away is even better. Nice to see lots of respect from the voters.
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02-10-2020, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford
I should also add, with the bracket preview released, anyone else feel like this matters much less? The pub is nice, but outside of winning, I just want to maintain/improve upon that 2 seed, 6th overall that they placed UD at.
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Agree.
I think now with the committee is having their release it will influence the AP voters.
Last edited by Radar; 02-10-2020 at 01:38 PM..
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02-10-2020, 12:44 PM
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Do they do a weekly release? I haven't really paid attention in the past because UD was no where near the top 16.
If that is the case, then ESPN, CBS, etc... should use that ranking the same way they flip from the AP to the top 25 of the playoff rankings in college football.
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02-10-2020, 01:03 PM
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Anybody notice the team with one vote? Maybe we should try and play them next year? JUST KIDDING.
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02-10-2020, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
Anybody notice the team with one vote? Maybe we should try and play them next year? JUST KIDDING.
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Winthrop? I think we have played them before. I wouldn't mind playing them again....
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02-10-2020, 01:12 PM
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URI is a distant 27 but are likely playing for a top 25 ranking as well as a share of 1st in the A10 - huge game
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02-10-2020, 01:25 PM
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My personal hot take, I think the winner of Duke/Florida State tonight more than likely passes us next week regardless of what we do. this is of course if that winning team does not lose another game this week.
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02-10-2020, 01:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar
Agree.
I think now that the committee is having their weekly release it will influence the AP voters.
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The committee doesn’t provide a weekly release. They only do one pre-bracket in February. They started it 3 years ago because they wanted to show some transparency in the process.
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02-10-2020, 11:50 PM
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Actual Top 10 for the week of Feb 10th and their games for the week:
1. Baylor - W @ Texas 2/10, vs WVU 2/15
2. Gonzaga - @ Pepper 2/15
3. Kansas - @ WVU 2/12, vs OK 2/15
4. SDS - vs NM 2/11, @ Boise 2/16
5. Lou - @ G Tech 2/12, @ Clem 2/15
6. OUR Dayton Flyers - vs RI 2/11, @ UMass 2/15
7. Duke - W vs FSU 2/10, vs ND 2/15
8. Florida St. - L @ Duke 2/10, vs Syr 2/15
9. Maryland - vs Neb 2/11, @ MSU 2/15
10. Seaton Hall - vs Creighton 2/12, @Prov 2/15
11. Auburn - vs Bama 2/12, @ MIzzu 2/15
Well we knew at least one team in the top 10 was going to lose - sadly it was not Duke.
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02-11-2020, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
Anybody notice the team with one vote? Maybe we should try and play them next year? JUST KIDDING.
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What was up with that vote? Weird.
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02-11-2020, 11:55 AM
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And I noticed that ETSU is getting an at large bid on ESPN's bracketology, they are in the last four in, wow, good for them. I assume that would be the first ever at large bid for the Southern Conference.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
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02-11-2020, 04:03 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
And I noticed that ETSU is getting an at large bid on ESPN's bracketology, they are in the last four in, wow, good for them. I assume that would be the first ever at large bid for the Southern Conference.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
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Correct. SoCon has never received an at-large bid.
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02-11-2020, 05:17 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
And I noticed that ETSU is getting an at large bid on ESPN's bracketology, they are in the last four in, wow, good for them. I assume that would be the first ever at large bid for the Southern Conference.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
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Will be interesting to see if Furman, currently tied with ETSU, would get the at-large if ETSU wins the conference tournement. Their current net would say no.
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02-11-2020, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
Will be interesting to see if Furman, currently tied with ETSU, would get the at-large if ETSU wins the conference tournement. Their current net would say no.
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No chance. ETSU has a road win over LSU, and a sweep of UNCG, which is keeping them in the mix for an at-large. Furman's resume doesn't offer anything close to that. Even if they beat ETSU for a second time, season sweep, I'd say they're still an extreme long-shot. UNCG, with a road win over GTown and better NET might pose a greater claim than Furman.
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02-12-2020, 08:04 AM
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A nice bump to #3 in the RPI. Holding steady at #5 in the NET.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../rankings/rpi/
This is a fun year!
Go Flyers!
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02-12-2020, 10:17 AM
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UNC's blowout loss to Wake dilutes Duke's lucky win on Saturday and should help us hold #6.
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02-12-2020, 10:40 AM
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Top 11 for the week of Feb 10th and their games for the week:
1. Baylor - W @ Texas 2/10, vs WVU 2/15
2. Gonzaga - @ Pepper 2/15
3. Kansas - @ WVU 2/12, vs OK 2/15
4. SDS - W vs NM 2/11, @ Boise 2/16
5. Lou - @ G Tech 2/12, @ Clem 2/15
6. OUR Dayton Flyers - W vs RI 2/11, @ UMass 2/15
7. Duke - W vs FSU 2/10, vs ND 2/15
8. Florida St. - L @ Duke 2/10, vs Syr 2/15
9. Maryland - W vs Neb 2/11, @ MSU 2/15
10. Seaton Hall - vs Creighton 2/12, @Prov 2/15
11. Auburn - vs Bama 2/12, @ MIzzu 2/15
Top 11 went 3-0 on Tuesday. Ours was the best of those W's by far.
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02-12-2020, 10:46 AM
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Gotta a good feeling Huggie takes down Kansas tonight.......He'll get some calls he never got out there..
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02-12-2020, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted by steve
Gotta a good feeling Huggie takes down Kansas tonight.......He'll get some calls he never got out there..
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Shouldn't we be rooting for Kansas? Since a lot of where we are in the rankings is because of an OT loss to them, seems that's the one team in front of us we want to keep on winning.
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02-12-2020, 10:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
Shouldn't we be rooting for Kansas? Since a lot of where we are in the rankings is because of an OT loss to them, seems that's the one team in front of us we want to keep on winning.
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Absolutely...Just thinking KU is going down..
Having KU win and keep winning gives us a nice coat tail to hang onto for that 2 seed should we stumble a game or two..
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02-12-2020, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by steve
Absolutely...Just thinking KU is going down..
Having KU win and keep winning gives us a nice coat tail to hang onto for that 2 seed should we stumble a game or two..
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not to mention, West Virginia winning could vault them into the number 2 seed discussion and possibly impact our ability to play in Cleveland.
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02-12-2020, 11:29 AM
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General
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Originally Posted by steve
Absolutely...Just thinking KU is going down..
Having KU win and keep winning gives us a nice coat tail to hang onto for that 2 seed should we stumble a game or two..
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Oh, then you should've said you "had a bad feeling" not a good one lol
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02-12-2020, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
not to mention, West Virginia winning could vault them into the number 2 seed discussion and possibly impact our ability to play in Cleveland.
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I don’t think there are any rules against 2 - #2 seeds being at the same 1st/2nd round site. I believe that 2 - #1s have done that.
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02-12-2020, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
I don’t think there are any rules against 2 - #2 seeds being at the same 1st/2nd round site. I believe that 2 - #1s have done that.
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Correct - that is the whole point of the Pod system - to get 1's and 2's as close to home as possible - and if there are two 2 seeds close to one site - then put them both there. Goal is for them to put the most fans in the stands as possible and reward top seeded teams with the closer locations.
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02-12-2020, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by podcast411
Correct - that is the whole point of the Pod system - to get 1's and 2's as close to home as possible - and if there are two 2 seeds close to one site - then put them both there. Goal is for them to put the most fans in the stands as possible and reward top seeded teams with the closer locations.
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With UDs fan base, it looks like Indy or NY regional should we advance.
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02-12-2020, 11:42 PM
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Fan base has absolutely nothing to do with it, except maybe as a tie breaker and even then probably not. They put all teams in the pod that gets them playing closest to home. The higher seeds get preference here, so once the 1-68 seeding (first) then the bracketing (second) is sorted out, then the locations are determined.
The higher your seed, the more likely you'll be assigned a location close to home.
Finally, 1-4 seeds are protected from facing an unpleasant near home court disadvantage in the first round (only). It's why Providence (6 seed) wasn't protected from facing Dayton in Columbus in the first round and Oklahoma (3 seed) wasn't projected in the second round.
From the NCAA:
To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first four lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the first round.
Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible, as determined by mileage from campus to the venue. A team moved out of its natural area will be placed in the next closest region to the extent possible. If two teams from the same natural region are in contention for the same bracket position, the team ranked higher in the seed list shall remain in its natural region.
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https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...-march-madness
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02-12-2020, 11:54 PM
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Major
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#5
Down goes Louisville. Take care of UMass and 5 is my new favorite number.
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02-13-2020, 12:00 AM
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General
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Originally Posted by momszer
Down goes Louisville. Take care of UMass and 5 is my new favorite number.
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Are you a Duke fan also? Because they could be #5.
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02-13-2020, 03:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10
Are you a Duke fan also? Because they could be #5.
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Agreed. I fear our beloved Flyers will still be #6 come Monday.
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02-13-2020, 07:39 AM
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Top 11 for the week of Feb 10th and their games for the week:
1. Baylor - W @ Texas 2/10, vs WVU 2/15
2. Gonzaga - @ Pepper 2/15
3. Kansas - W @ WVU 2/12, vs OK 2/15
4. SDS - W vs NM 2/11, @ Boise 2/16
5. Lou - L @ G Tech 2/12, @ Clem 2/15
6. OUR Dayton Flyers - W vs RI 2/11, @ UMass 2/15
7. Duke - W vs FSU 2/10, vs ND 2/15
8. Florida St. - L @ Duke 2/10, vs Syr 2/15
9. Maryland - W vs Neb 2/11, @ MSU 2/15
10. Seaton Hall - L vs Creighton 2/12, @Prov 2/15
11. Auburn - W vs Bama 2/12, @ MIzzu 2/15
Top 11 went 2-2 on Wed. Lou loss opens up the possibility to move into the top 5 - just depends if Dukes win vs #8 is considered that much better then our win against #27. But still lots of games left on Saturday. Would be nice for ND to knock off Duke.
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02-13-2020, 09:30 AM
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I’m more than good if we are single digit after the regular season.
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02-13-2020, 12:41 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by RamodWaleskowski
Agreed. I fear our beloved Flyers will still be #6 come Monday.
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Whoa, I'm not saying it will happen, I'm saying it could happen. We have a chance to move to #5, but so does Duke so it's not a given.
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02-13-2020, 01:22 PM
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Major
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You said the same thing last week and we gained on Duke. The Jefferson's theme song is stuck in my head and it won't stop, "We're movin on up..."
Last edited by momszer; 02-13-2020 at 01:25 PM..
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02-13-2020, 01:47 PM
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Jay Bilas Rankings 3.0
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02-13-2020, 07:33 PM
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02-14-2020, 09:42 AM
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Flyers win, Cards lose...one moves up and the other moves down in rankings.
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02-14-2020, 11:01 AM
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I believe the Mac plays their tournament at rocket mortgage field house, so I wonder if the committee would consider that when seating Bowling Green if they win.
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02-14-2020, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
I believe the Mac plays their tournament at rocket mortgage field house, so I wonder if the committee would consider that when seating Bowling Green if they win.
Posted via Mobile Device
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BG would have to play there for 4 or more games for it to be considered by the committee.
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02-14-2020, 01:08 PM
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02-14-2020, 01:46 PM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by CE80
Gem City vs Glass City!!
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Bowling Green isn't the Glass City. People in BG call it Pull Town USA because of hosting the national tracker pull championships.
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02-14-2020, 01:58 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45
Bowling Green isn't the Glass City. People in BG call it Pull Town USA because of hosting the national tracker pull championships.
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Poetic license. I thought it was close enough to Toledo to count it.
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02-14-2020, 02:16 PM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by CE80
Poetic license. I thought it was close enough to Toledo to count it.
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26 Miles apart. Not really that close. Is Middletown part of the Gem City?
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02-15-2020, 05:37 PM
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Definitely a Clemson fan today. Want to move ahead of Louisville who looks like it will have its second loss this week.
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02-15-2020, 05:49 PM
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Originally Posted by udx2
Definitely a Clemson fan today. Want to move ahead of Louisville who looks like it will have its second loss this week.
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we already move ahead of Louisville whether they beat Clemson or not.
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02-15-2020, 06:24 PM
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Louisville tanked...UD to #5.
But more to be of concern is VCU next week.
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02-15-2020, 08:18 PM
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During the Michigan State-Maryland game, Jay Bilas said... "Dayton and Duke are the most likely to jump up a seed line".
Since they have us at a #2 seed, as of now, that only means one thing!
Pinch me, is this season really happening!
P.S. - Beat VCU!
Go Flyers!
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02-15-2020, 08:30 PM
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This may sound strange, but I’d rather stay the top 2 seed as you are guaranteed Cleveland and then Indy. If you bump up to the 1 seed and are the 3 or 4 you may very end up in NY like SanDiego St.
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02-15-2020, 09:32 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by TA111
This may sound strange, but I’d rather stay the top 2 seed as you are guaranteed Cleveland and then Indy. If you bump up to the 1 seed and are the 3 or 4 you may very end up in NY like SanDiego St.
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Why can't the 1 seed be in Cleveland? What am I missing, NCAA screw something up again?
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02-15-2020, 09:50 PM
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There are no 1 seed games in Cleveland. There are two 2/15 games in Cleveland.
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02-15-2020, 09:51 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111
This may sound strange, but I’d rather stay the top 2 seed as you are guaranteed Cleveland and then Indy. If you bump up to the 1 seed and are the 3 or 4 you may very end up in NY like SanDiego St.
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I agree, especially if the 1 seed in our bracket is SDSU.
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02-15-2020, 09:58 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by Hobopotamus1
There are no 1 seed games in Cleveland. There are two 2/15 games in Cleveland.
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What in the world are you talking about? They place teams at sites as they draw out the bracket.
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02-15-2020, 10:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Hobopotamus1
There are no 1 seed games in Cleveland. There are two 2/15 games in Cleveland.
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Curious your source for this? I do not remember past years the exact seed line games being announced ahead of time.
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02-15-2020, 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan
Why can't the 1 seed be in Cleveland? What am I missing, NCAA screw something up again?
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You're not missing anything! #1 seeds get to pick 1st and 2nd rounds and region (providing a higher #1 hasn't selected the same region.
At this point, UD getting a #1 seed is a long shot because among Kansas,
Gonzaga, SDS or Baylor which one would have a problem keeping their #1
seed?
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02-15-2020, 10:43 PM
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So much bad information in this thread.
Nobody gets to pick their destination. The number one OVERALL seed is asked for their preference for opening rounds and regional sites. They probably get it.
Each top four seed leads a pod. The pods are 1-16-8-9, 2-15-7-10, 3-14-6-11, and 4-13-5-12. Four pods in each region = 16 pods. Each first round site hosts two pods. The top seed in each pod will get the geographic location closest to home, with preference to the higher seeds (if Dayton gets a top four seed, the committee will try to send them to Cleveland. If two higher seeded teams have Cleveland as their closest site, Dayton would get bumped to their second closest site).
The two pods at each first round site could be two 1s, two 4s, a 2 and a 3, or any combination thereof.
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02-15-2020, 10:56 PM
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Unless something changed...your "closeness" to home depends on your overall on that seed line. If you take the four 1 seeds, the overall 1 will be closest to home with the overall 4 being further away if they come from the same region as a team before them.
The NCAA does try to keep teams closer than they have in the past for travel purposes for the NCAA and fans alike, but the bracket isn't inclusive of that.
For example, if it goes Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas, Dayton. Baylor gets the south, Zags get the West, Kansas will get the Midwest, and Dayton gets the East region versus the Midwest.
East ends up at MSG versus Indy which means you have to figure out what sites feed the East regional. So your best bet is that one side of the bracket feeds the fourth overall from Cleveland to the East...or if we are a 2 seed we get fed through Cleveland to Indy and the 1 seed in front of us is fed through STL.
Since they aren't going to feed a 1 seed and a 2 seed through the same first weekend site, you have to hope that there are no other better seeded teams in front of us overall or on the same seed line. Right now, I don't think that is a possibility out of the teams around us as two are west, one is midwest, and the others are south.
Just my 2cents. The NCAA has put teams much closer to home the last few years versus seasons past. They also take into consideration their cost at the NCAA foots the bill for travel. Over 5 hours (IIRC) its a flight and under 5 it a bus. The more teams, bands, and cheerleaders they can bus versus fly the better for them.
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02-15-2020, 11:02 PM
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Shocka, good post but this
"which means you have to figure out what sites feed the East regional"
Is wrong. Any first round site can feed any regional. A first round site can feed two completely different regional with its two pods.
In the current committee top 16 seeds for example, they had SDSU playing in the New York regional because they favored Gonzaga and with Kansas and Baylor the other 1s, SDSU would be the odd man out for travel for the regional. But they'd be assigned Sacramento for the first rounds.
If first round sites were geographically tied to exact regions like they used to be, a Sacramento sub-region would never ever feed a New York regional.
Last edited by sheg; 02-15-2020 at 11:07 PM..
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02-15-2020, 11:05 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg
Shocka, good post but this
which means you have to figure out what sites feed the East regional
Is wrong. Any first round site can feed any regional. A first round site can feed two completely different regional with its two pods.
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Correct. I think we mean the same thing just got there a different way...and I shouldn't have said figure out as there isn't a way to figure it out until a month from now.
That's what I meant regarding the lower seed being closer and most teams being from the south or west. Had the seeds in front of us been heavy on the midwest or east, it would hurt our chances of Cleveland/Albany/STL and may have had to settle for Greensboro or Tampa out of the south.
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02-15-2020, 11:21 PM
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In 2019, Columbus hosted the pods that included North Carolina (1 seed) that fed the Kansas City regional and Tennessee (2 seed) that fed the Louisville regional.
The host sites that fed the Anaheim regional were Salt Lake City, Tulsa, Des Moines, and Hartford, CT.
Just a couple of examples to illustrate.
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02-15-2020, 11:35 PM
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I think we wind up at #5 next week but wouldn't be surprised if Duke passes us considering they beat Fla St and Notre who
getting ahead of the game a bit, next Saturday Baylor plays Kansas in Waco so one of the top 4 will lose, take care of business and hmmmm top 4 in the country???
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02-15-2020, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by rasta man
I think we wind up at #5 next week but wouldn't be surprised if Duke passes us considering they beat Fla St and Notre who
getting ahead of the game a bit, next Saturday Baylor plays Kansas in Waco so one of the top 4 will lose, take care of business and hmmmm top 4 in the country???
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I'll say it again. If we win out we are a 1 seed. Very little chance that we wouldn't be.
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02-16-2020, 12:05 AM
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In the committee's recent release of the top 16 seeds, they ranked the teams 1-16 and assigned regions as follows (my guesses for first-round sites follow):
1 Baylor (Houston) (Omaha)
2 Kansas (Indy) ( Saint Louis)
3 Gonzaga (Los Angeles) (Spokane)
4 SDSU (New York) (Sacramento)
5 Duke (New York) (Greensboro)
6 Dayton (Indy) (Cleveland)
7 Louisville (Houston) (Saint Louis)
8 West Virginia (Los Angeles) (Cleveland)
9 Maryland (New York) (Albany)
10 Florida State (Indy) (Tampa)
11 Seton Hall (Houston) (Albany)
12 Villanova (Los Angeles) (Omaha)
13 Auburn (Houston) (Tampa)
14 Oregon (Los Angeles) (Spokane)
15 Butler (New York) (Greensboro)
16 Michigan State (Indy) (Sacramento)
Generally speaking, they're supposed to follow the s-curve, but teams don't exactly slot into the s-curve due to things like rematch avoidance, geographic preference, and others. They do calculate the overall strength of the 1-4 seeds in each region to balance them as much as possible. Here, the four regions total 32, 34, 34, and 37, reasonably balanced.
The committee didn't assign first-round sites on this bracketing, but I inserted my guesses above.
Obviously, the field will change dramatically between now and Selection Sunday and already has.
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02-16-2020, 12:21 AM
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Top 11 for the week of Feb 10th and their games for the week:
1. Baylor - W @ Texas 2/10, vs WVU 2/15 - 2 W's - Holding at 1st
2. Gonzaga - W @ Pepper 2/15 - 1 W - Holding at 2nd
3. Kansas - W @ WVU 2/12, W vs OK 2/15 - 2 W's - holding at 3rd
4. SDS - W vs NM 2/11, @ Boise 2/16
5. Lou - L @ G Tech 2/12, L @ Clem 2/15 - 2 L's - Dropping out of Top 10
6. OUR Dayton Flyers - W vs RI 2/11, W @ UMass 2/15 - 2 W's likely moving up to 5th place
7. Duke - W vs FSU 2/10, W vs ND 2/15 - 2 W's - moving up to 6th or maybe 5th.
8. Florida St. - L @ Duke 2/10, W vs Syr 2/15 - Split their games - Dropping a little
9. Maryland - W vs Neb 2/11, W @ MSU 2/15 - 2 W's - moving up to 7th.
10. Seton Hall - L vs Creighton 2/12, L @Prov 2/15 - 2 L's - dropping way out of the top 10
11. Auburn - W vs Bama 2/12, L @ MIzzu 2/15 - 1 W / 1 L - dropping just not as much as Seton Hall
Most likely we move up to 5th. Unless SDS losses and then we could move up to 4th.
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02-16-2020, 12:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go
I'll say it again. If we win out we are a 1 seed. Very little chance that we wouldn't be.
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Nine out of ten years I'd agree with you. But Baylor and Kansas are, right now, looking like clearly the two best teams in college basketball. It might take more than one loss, especially to each other, to make the committee think otherwise. And I think that's reasonable. We know they must face each other twice more if they win all their other games.
Further, Gonzaga and SDSU may not lose another game. Their schedules are mostly cupcakes, with Gonzaga's toughest game at Kenpom 13 BYU and SDSU's toughest at 80 Nevada. With the exception of BYU, none of those team's conference mates look to be providing much competition right now.
Lastly, a 3-loss Duke would be a credible 1 seed if they win out, and I don't think them being placed ahead of UD if both win out would be unreasonable.. Duke's resume would be better.
Who knows how it will turn out. There are four weeks left until Selection Sunday and I don't want to rush the process. I want to enjoy every single moment.
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