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  #1  
Old 12-02-2019, 12:08 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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2020 A-10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

While we wait for the rankings to come out, something to chew on.

Probabilities Through games of 12/1:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton              52.43%  25.04%  11.33%   5.71%   2.96%   1.42%   0.70%   0.27%   0.10%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.91
VA Commonwealth     28.40%  29.63%  17.42%  10.42%   6.45%   3.69%   2.06%   1.09%   0.50%   0.22%   0.09%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%        2.67
Richmond             6.14%  12.34%  16.29%  16.23%  14.27%  11.89%   8.60%   6.10%   3.86%   2.32%   1.21%   0.52%   0.18%   0.05%        4.77
Duquesne             5.06%  11.14%  16.63%  16.77%  14.68%  11.91%   8.88%   6.21%   3.94%   2.44%   1.38%   0.64%   0.28%   0.07%        4.88
Davidson             3.93%  10.13%  15.17%  16.46%  15.52%  12.92%   9.80%   6.76%   4.40%   2.55%   1.40%   0.63%   0.26%   0.07%        5.06
Rhode Island         2.66%   6.61%  11.27%  13.55%  14.52%  13.82%  11.82%   9.60%   6.60%   4.49%   2.71%   1.44%   0.68%   0.24%        5.83
St Louis             0.72%   2.31%   4.83%   7.54%  10.29%  12.87%  14.67%  13.84%  11.78%   8.83%   5.96%   3.68%   1.94%   0.75%        7.32
George Mason         0.41%   1.50%   3.18%   5.49%   8.03%  10.64%  12.72%  13.53%  12.95%  11.33%   8.93%   6.05%   3.57%   1.67%        8.07
St Bonaventure       0.16%   0.80%   2.19%   4.00%   5.96%   8.24%  10.45%  12.58%  13.86%  12.98%  11.18%   8.66%   5.75%   3.21%        8.78
La Salle             0.07%   0.27%   0.92%   1.80%   3.29%   5.37%   8.09%  10.79%  13.30%  14.74%  13.99%  12.10%   9.24%   6.04%        9.73
Fordham              0.03%   0.14%   0.50%   1.19%   2.25%   3.70%   5.86%   8.31%  11.26%  13.94%  15.66%  14.89%  12.82%   9.48%       10.38
Massachusetts        0.01%   0.08%   0.21%   0.58%   1.16%   2.15%   3.74%   5.96%   8.89%  12.04%  15.89%  18.83%  17.43%  13.05%       11.06
G Washington         0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.16%   0.33%   0.73%   1.35%   2.60%   4.50%   7.38%  11.19%  16.57%  24.37%  30.79%       12.21
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.13%   0.30%   0.66%   1.27%   2.38%   4.07%   6.73%  10.40%  15.97%  23.48%  34.57%       12.33
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  #2  
Old 12-03-2019, 12:41 AM
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This is my favorite continual post of the year because it determines when I decide to arrive in Brooklyn...
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  #3  
Old 12-03-2019, 08:25 AM
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Obviously anything can happen, but A 95-ish percent chance of locking up a top four seed already is a nice thing to look at.
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Old 12-03-2019, 08:51 AM
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How about 2021?
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  #5  
Old 12-03-2019, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by shocka43 View Post
This is my favorite continual post of the year because it determines when I decide to arrive in Brooklyn...
The issue of arrival has not been the problem in recent years - it's been the departure.
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  #6  
Old 12-03-2019, 01:16 PM
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How are these probabilities determined?
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Old 12-04-2019, 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
How are these probabilities determined?
It's calculated based upon 100,000 simulations of the A-10 schedule determining the winner of each game according to KenPom Win Probabilities.
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  #8  
Old 12-09-2019, 11:04 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 12/8:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton              57.50%  22.71%  10.17%   5.00%   2.51%   1.18%   0.58%   0.25%   0.08%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.80
VA Commonwealth     21.43%  27.58%  18.59%  12.48%   8.17%   5.23%   3.26%   1.84%   0.90%   0.35%   0.14%   0.02%   0.01%   0.00%        3.06
Richmond             8.04%  14.99%  17.18%  15.84%  13.58%  10.88%   7.91%   5.46%   3.32%   1.70%   0.74%   0.28%   0.06%   0.01%        4.44
Duquesne             4.11%  10.13%  14.44%  15.75%  14.91%  12.91%  10.16%   7.52%   4.92%   2.83%   1.44%   0.62%   0.22%   0.05%        5.13
Davidson             3.29%   8.95%  13.13%  14.86%  14.93%  13.66%  11.62%   8.58%   5.53%   3.10%   1.44%   0.63%   0.22%   0.06%        5.34
Rhode Island         3.73%   8.92%  12.82%  14.28%  14.37%  13.34%  11.20%   8.84%   6.00%   3.64%   1.79%   0.75%   0.27%   0.07%        5.42
St Louis             1.22%   3.66%   6.33%   9.15%  11.97%  14.09%  14.85%  13.68%  11.02%   7.23%   4.02%   1.83%   0.76%   0.20%        6.72
St Bonaventure       0.31%   1.46%   3.50%   5.67%   7.81%  10.46%  13.03%  14.45%  14.45%  12.12%   8.42%   4.82%   2.53%   0.96%        7.93
George Mason         0.28%   1.17%   2.52%   4.12%   6.44%   8.96%  11.76%  14.41%  15.17%  14.03%  10.09%   6.42%   3.45%   1.20%        8.37
La Salle             0.08%   0.34%   0.96%   1.92%   3.39%   5.36%   8.33%  11.65%  15.57%  16.99%  14.61%  10.50%   6.84%   3.46%        9.46
Fordham              0.00%   0.07%   0.27%   0.63%   1.20%   2.31%   3.95%   6.72%  10.25%  15.00%  18.86%  17.74%  13.83%   9.16%       10.75
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.16%   0.38%   0.85%   1.72%   3.16%   5.86%  10.24%  16.44%  22.37%  22.77%  15.97%       11.69
G Washington         0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.12%   0.29%   0.64%   1.28%   2.59%   5.13%   8.87%  14.31%  20.17%  25.12%  21.44%       11.97
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.07%   0.13%   0.35%   0.84%   1.80%   3.88%   7.71%  13.84%  23.93%  47.42%       12.91
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  #9  
Old 12-09-2019, 11:17 AM
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I am surprised George Mason is so low and Richmond is so high. Seems like they are both the good surprises this year. Note: I have no idea who GM has played, but they ARE 10-1! Richmond has won some good games and are 8-1. Yet probability says UR 3rd, and GM 9th.
Davidson whoa... wish they can get it turned around before conference.
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Old 12-16-2019, 11:49 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 12/15:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton              59.52%  20.72%   9.87%   5.03%   2.57%   1.31%   0.59%   0.28%   0.09%   0.02%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.79
VA Commonwealth     15.33%  23.31%  18.72%  14.30%  10.58%   7.35%   5.05%   2.90%   1.58%   0.64%   0.19%   0.05%   0.01%   0.00%        3.54
Duquesne            10.69%  19.02%  19.34%  16.12%  12.44%   8.99%   6.11%   3.84%   2.10%   0.90%   0.33%   0.10%   0.02%   0.00%        3.94
Richmond             6.33%  12.79%  14.97%  15.42%  14.50%  12.27%   9.39%   6.80%   4.24%   2.17%   0.78%   0.25%   0.09%   0.01%        4.77
Davidson             3.12%   9.38%  12.66%  14.78%  15.33%  14.10%  11.77%   8.99%   5.51%   2.75%   1.10%   0.37%   0.13%   0.02%        5.30
Rhode Island         3.21%   8.04%  11.45%  13.50%  14.23%  14.02%  12.31%   9.78%   6.88%   3.99%   1.64%   0.66%   0.24%   0.05%        5.59
St Louis             1.07%   3.32%   5.67%   8.42%  11.09%  13.74%  15.32%  14.93%  12.10%   8.23%   3.81%   1.63%   0.56%   0.14%        6.85
St Bonaventure       0.39%   1.81%   3.82%   5.98%   8.59%  11.17%  13.85%  15.13%  15.11%  12.00%   6.78%   3.36%   1.52%   0.50%        7.65
George Mason         0.26%   1.15%   2.31%   3.97%   6.09%   8.92%  11.92%  14.87%  16.67%  15.46%   9.69%   5.36%   2.55%   0.79%        8.31
La Salle             0.08%   0.44%   1.06%   2.14%   3.72%   6.11%   9.34%  13.29%  17.32%  18.75%  13.10%   8.21%   4.56%   1.87%        9.11
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.14%   0.34%   0.78%   1.66%   3.39%   6.54%  12.11%  20.11%  22.88%  19.90%  12.07%       11.49
Fordham              0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.12%   0.26%   0.56%   1.33%   2.79%   5.55%  10.35%  17.93%  21.56%  21.51%  18.00%       11.78
G Washington         0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.10%   0.25%   0.61%   1.22%   2.55%   5.15%   9.72%  17.38%  22.11%  23.95%  16.94%       11.83
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.06%   0.16%   0.45%   1.17%   2.91%   7.17%  13.46%  24.98%  49.62%       13.05
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Old 12-23-2019, 10:13 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 12/22:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton              65.51%  18.50%   8.15%   3.96%   2.01%   1.06%   0.46%   0.23%   0.08%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.65
VA Commonwealth     12.37%  22.93%  18.19%  13.96%  10.84%   8.32%   5.95%   3.86%   2.18%   1.00%   0.31%   0.07%   0.02%   0.00%        3.79
Duquesne             7.27%  16.41%  17.78%  15.86%  13.12%  10.53%   7.86%   5.42%   3.35%   1.60%   0.57%   0.20%   0.04%   0.01%        4.39
Davidson             4.98%  14.09%  15.71%  15.46%  14.09%  11.97%   9.39%   6.73%   4.24%   2.15%   0.83%   0.27%   0.08%   0.01%        4.77
Richmond             3.44%   8.74%  11.40%  12.88%  13.65%  13.25%  12.07%  10.02%   7.53%   4.46%   1.77%   0.58%   0.20%   0.03%        5.61
Rhode Island         3.56%   9.22%  11.92%  13.16%  13.69%  13.12%  11.77%   9.86%   7.00%   4.09%   1.69%   0.66%   0.22%   0.04%        5.53
St Louis             1.93%   5.70%   8.35%  10.87%  12.40%  13.57%  14.14%  12.64%   9.84%   6.26%   2.78%   1.06%   0.36%   0.09%        6.26
George Mason         0.50%   1.92%   3.52%   5.45%   7.72%  10.17%  12.61%  14.92%  15.46%  13.73%   7.71%   3.91%   1.80%   0.59%        7.84
St Bonaventure       0.34%   1.87%   3.65%   5.71%   7.81%  10.03%  12.74%  14.95%  15.85%  13.33%   7.50%   3.87%   1.74%   0.62%        7.82
La Salle             0.12%   0.57%   1.19%   2.29%   3.79%   6.01%   8.86%  12.83%  17.10%  19.31%  13.10%   8.31%   4.51%   2.01%        9.11
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.04%   0.09%   0.23%   0.48%   1.02%   1.99%   3.80%   7.17%  12.91%  21.87%  21.82%  17.31%  11.28%       11.33
G Washington         0.00%   0.01%   0.02%   0.07%   0.16%   0.44%   0.94%   1.99%   4.21%   8.36%  16.01%  21.95%  24.33%  21.52%       12.05
Fordham              0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.09%   0.18%   0.41%   0.94%   2.01%   4.30%   8.56%  16.34%  20.80%  22.82%  23.51%       12.06
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.05%   0.10%   0.28%   0.75%   1.72%   4.22%   9.52%  16.50%  26.56%  40.29%       12.78
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Old 12-30-2019, 11:05 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 12/29:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton              68.44%  18.40%   7.12%   3.23%   1.50%   0.77%   0.34%   0.14%   0.05%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.56
VA Commonwealth     14.92%  28.04%  18.89%  13.13%   9.40%   6.40%   4.32%   2.62%   1.44%   0.62%   0.17%   0.05%   0.01%   0.00%        3.38
Davidson             4.44%  14.45%  16.49%  15.56%  13.75%  11.56%   9.16%   6.88%   4.18%   2.28%   0.85%   0.29%   0.10%   0.01%        4.77
Rhode Island         4.36%  12.44%  15.33%  15.27%  13.87%  11.80%   9.80%   7.61%   5.06%   2.75%   1.14%   0.42%   0.13%   0.03%        4.99
Duquesne             2.69%   8.47%  12.57%  14.13%  14.14%  13.31%  11.60%   9.52%   6.67%   4.12%   1.76%   0.75%   0.24%   0.05%        5.55
Richmond             2.68%   8.20%  11.28%  12.54%  13.41%  13.16%  12.19%  10.46%   7.80%   5.11%   2.12%   0.76%   0.25%   0.06%        5.76
St Louis             1.54%   5.33%   8.72%  11.20%  12.79%  13.50%  13.74%  12.35%   9.91%   6.54%   2.87%   1.10%   0.35%   0.09%        6.28
St Bonaventure       0.32%   1.95%   4.11%   6.11%   8.31%  10.62%  12.65%  14.11%  15.31%  13.04%   7.42%   3.73%   1.70%   0.62%        7.73
George Mason         0.47%   1.94%   3.77%   5.69%   7.58%  10.15%  12.40%  14.44%  15.38%  13.70%   8.07%   3.99%   1.80%   0.63%        7.84
La Salle             0.14%   0.75%   1.57%   2.73%   4.26%   6.62%   9.58%  13.23%  16.99%  18.31%  12.43%   7.52%   4.14%   1.74%        8.92
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.02%   0.09%   0.26%   0.51%   1.11%   1.99%   3.84%   7.05%  12.65%  21.62%  21.82%  17.73%  11.31%       11.34
G Washington         0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.09%   0.26%   0.55%   1.06%   2.23%   4.63%   8.97%  17.05%  22.55%  23.22%  19.37%       11.93
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.07%   0.19%   0.35%   0.90%   1.84%   3.83%   8.01%  15.31%  20.67%  23.44%  25.35%       12.15
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.01%   0.04%   0.12%   0.29%   0.72%   1.72%   3.88%   9.17%  16.37%  26.92%  40.76%       12.81
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  #13  
Old 01-06-2020, 09:55 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 01/05:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton              71.38%  18.49%   6.32%   2.48%   0.85%   0.33%   0.10%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.45
VA Commonwealth     15.07%  32.82%  21.17%  13.22%   8.13%   4.78%   2.68%   1.35%   0.58%   0.18%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.03
Richmond             6.58%  18.68%  20.86%  18.80%  13.76%   9.10%   5.78%   3.52%   1.85%   0.80%   0.21%   0.05%   0.01%   0.00%        4.01
Duquesne             4.81%  16.58%  22.79%  19.88%  14.08%   9.42%   6.14%   3.46%   1.76%   0.79%   0.23%   0.05%   0.02%   0.00%        4.10
Davidson             0.99%   5.62%  10.29%  14.54%  17.25%  16.18%  13.50%  10.21%   6.44%   3.27%   1.19%   0.38%   0.11%   0.03%        5.71
Rhode Island         0.49%   2.60%   5.97%   9.80%  13.23%  15.49%  15.76%  14.38%  10.74%   6.76%   3.18%   1.15%   0.37%   0.09%        6.66
St Louis             0.41%   2.38%   5.30%   8.37%  12.29%  15.46%  16.73%  15.43%  11.91%   7.44%   3.08%   0.92%   0.23%   0.06%        6.80
St Bonaventure       0.24%   2.17%   5.30%   8.33%  11.62%  13.89%  15.22%  15.09%  13.02%   8.99%   4.11%   1.51%   0.42%   0.11%        7.00
La Salle             0.02%   0.41%   1.15%   2.44%   4.57%   7.48%  11.34%  15.66%  19.72%  18.09%  11.15%   5.24%   2.06%   0.67%        8.66
George Mason         0.02%   0.22%   0.73%   1.77%   3.32%   5.94%   8.76%  12.65%  17.41%  20.95%  15.09%   8.02%   3.77%   1.36%        9.21
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.02%   0.11%   0.33%   0.82%   1.64%   3.17%   5.91%  10.68%  17.89%  26.50%  17.88%  10.18%   4.88%       10.67
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.01%   0.03%   0.10%   0.34%   0.85%   2.26%   5.77%  12.63%  23.68%  27.25%  27.07%       12.44
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.02%   0.04%   0.12%   0.29%   0.87%   2.15%   5.36%  13.12%  22.27%  26.27%  29.49%       12.49
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.02%   0.07%   0.20%   0.59%   1.49%   3.72%   9.48%  18.86%  29.32%  36.25%       12.76 
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  #14  
Old 01-06-2020, 02:07 PM
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Refresh my memory... first four teams get a double bye?
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Old 01-06-2020, 02:57 PM
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I believe so, bottom for play to open things up, then move on to 8 teams playing 4 games day 2, then 8 more teams, including the top 4 seeds moving on to play 4 games day 3 then down like normal.
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Old 01-06-2020, 03:25 PM
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A10 Tourney bracket

https://atlantic10_ftp.sidearmsports...BB_Bracket.pdf

Flyers will look good on the #1 line winning three straight!

I already have the afternoon of Friday 13th marked off in my schedule. What bar is the lunch watch party being held?

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  #17  
Old 01-06-2020, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
A10 Tourney bracket

https://atlantic10_ftp.sidearmsports...BB_Bracket.pdf

Flyers will look good on the #1 line winning three straight!

I already have the afternoon of Friday 13th marked off in my schedule. What bar is the lunch watch party being held?
It is the goal to be in that slot but I donít like playing at noon on Friday the 13th.

Iíll be at Barclays
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Old 01-09-2020, 09:53 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 01/08:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton              70.67%  18.53%   6.62%   2.66%   1.02%   0.36%   0.12%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.47
VA Commonwealth     13.98%  30.42%  20.95%  14.24%   8.96%   5.63%   3.33%   1.66%   0.62%   0.20%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.18
Duquesne             5.99%  18.64%  23.43%  19.29%  14.07%   9.13%   5.30%   2.62%   1.05%   0.36%   0.10%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        3.88
Richmond             7.03%  19.00%  20.98%  19.00%  13.35%   9.19%   5.74%   3.30%   1.59%   0.61%   0.17%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%        3.95
Rhode Island         0.95%   4.39%   8.68%  13.26%  17.12%  17.35%  15.28%  11.69%   6.48%   3.04%   1.22%   0.42%   0.10%   0.02%        5.88
St Bonaventure       0.72%   4.56%   9.14%  12.82%  15.86%  16.70%  15.46%  12.62%   7.22%   3.30%   1.18%   0.32%   0.09%   0.02%        5.93
Davidson             0.28%   2.21%   4.81%   8.82%  13.09%  16.84%  18.86%  17.20%   9.89%   4.88%   2.07%   0.76%   0.22%   0.06%        6.64
St Louis             0.37%   2.04%   4.59%   7.82%  11.94%  15.42%  18.22%  17.67%  11.98%   6.50%   2.62%   0.67%   0.16%   0.02%        6.83
La Salle             0.01%   0.14%   0.54%   1.26%   2.50%   4.93%   8.57%  14.63%  22.66%  20.83%  13.66%   6.72%   2.71%   0.86%        9.16
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.04%   0.14%   0.41%   1.03%   2.11%   4.11%   8.28%  16.24%  22.04%  22.74%  13.64%   6.79%   2.44%       10.18
George Mason         0.01%   0.02%   0.13%   0.40%   0.99%   2.11%   4.30%   8.17%  15.70%  22.09%  21.63%  13.96%   7.48%   3.00%       10.22
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.09%   0.31%   0.89%   2.98%   7.01%  14.35%  24.43%  27.12%  22.78%       12.29
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.11%   0.30%   0.88%   2.53%   6.31%  13.19%  23.02%  26.13%  27.49%       12.42
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.10%   0.37%   1.08%   2.86%   7.03%  16.02%  29.20%  43.30%       12.98 
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  #19  
Old 01-09-2020, 11:42 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
It is the goal to be in that slot but I donít like playing at noon on Friday the 13th.

Iíll be at Barclays
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I don't either...I like that AM flight and the 6p game lol.
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  #20  
Old 01-13-2020, 10:42 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 01/11:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton              80.46%  12.45%   4.13%   1.75%   0.70%   0.35%   0.13%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.32
Duquesne             7.16%  26.55%  20.95%  16.12%  12.04%   8.38%   5.41%   2.36%   0.78%   0.21%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.64
VA Commonwealth      4.12%  16.78%  17.25%  15.86%  14.38%  12.23%   9.64%   6.37%   2.39%   0.77%   0.20%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%        4.48
Rhode Island         3.43%  15.59%  16.73%  16.24%  14.37%  12.63%  10.27%   6.55%   2.93%   0.93%   0.29%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%        4.61
St Louis             1.66%   8.98%  12.69%  14.90%  15.54%  15.36%  13.70%   9.90%   4.78%   1.85%   0.57%   0.08%   0.01%   0.00%        5.31
Richmond             1.95%   9.38%  12.31%  13.70%  14.93%  15.18%  13.65%  10.77%   5.28%   2.06%   0.63%   0.14%   0.02%   0.00%        5.37
St Bonaventure       1.03%   8.16%  10.92%  12.77%  14.64%  15.46%  15.70%  12.53%   5.61%   2.27%   0.72%   0.17%   0.02%   0.00%        5.61
Davidson             0.19%   1.92%   4.38%   7.07%  10.11%  13.93%  18.02%  22.11%  12.79%   6.05%   2.44%   0.74%   0.20%   0.04%        6.97
George Mason         0.01%   0.14%   0.39%   0.99%   1.93%   3.63%   6.91%  14.24%  28.30%  21.30%  12.59%   6.18%   2.62%   0.79%        9.24
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.05%   0.14%   0.32%   0.68%   1.47%   3.27%   7.50%  17.08%  23.68%  24.72%  12.99%   5.89%   2.24%       10.23
La Salle             0.00%   0.02%   0.12%   0.29%   0.64%   1.32%   3.02%   6.26%  14.63%  26.44%  25.38%  13.70%   6.07%   2.10%       10.32
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.01%   0.04%   0.16%   0.82%   2.92%   7.24%  14.82%  27.01%  25.68%  21.30%       12.26
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.07%   0.37%   1.46%   3.88%   9.26%  20.35%  27.90%  36.69%       12.78
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.21%   1.05%   3.33%   8.34%  18.57%  31.60%  36.85%       12.86 
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  #21  
Old 01-13-2020, 11:01 AM
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These could certainly firm up a bunch over the next two weeks for UD, or fall apart.
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  #22  
Old 01-13-2020, 03:40 PM
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Glad to see Duquesne back in the hunt.
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Old 01-16-2020, 09:50 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 01/15:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton              85.95%   9.61%   2.80%   1.06%   0.39%   0.14%   0.05%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.21
Duquesne             3.97%  21.86%  19.52%  16.92%  14.53%  11.56%   8.26%   2.51%   0.67%   0.16%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        4.02
Rhode Island         2.86%  16.76%  18.09%  17.29%  15.51%  12.99%   9.73%   4.67%   1.52%   0.44%   0.11%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%        4.40
Richmond             3.15%  16.95%  17.32%  16.53%  15.41%  13.62%  10.33%   4.55%   1.50%   0.50%   0.13%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%        4.43
VA Commonwealth      1.40%  12.62%  14.73%  15.45%  15.66%  15.47%  13.30%   7.77%   2.53%   0.80%   0.22%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%        4.93
St Bonaventure       1.31%  12.54%  13.91%  14.96%  15.57%  16.05%  14.76%   7.81%   2.27%   0.65%   0.15%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%        4.97
St Louis             1.34%   9.16%  12.18%  14.39%  15.85%  16.42%  15.47%   9.69%   3.74%   1.34%   0.35%   0.07%   0.01%   0.00%        5.29
Davidson             0.02%   0.44%   1.23%   2.73%   5.38%   9.68%  17.29%  31.13%  16.85%   8.63%   4.16%   1.74%   0.61%   0.14%        7.85
George Mason         0.00%   0.03%   0.11%   0.29%   0.68%   1.58%   4.12%  11.40%  24.22%  21.69%  16.86%  11.23%   5.71%   2.09%        9.93
La Salle             0.00%   0.03%   0.09%   0.27%   0.66%   1.49%   3.63%   9.01%  18.22%  23.56%  20.37%  13.98%   6.42%   2.30%       10.18
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.12%   0.34%   0.86%   2.39%   7.93%  17.75%  21.24%  21.46%  15.72%   8.69%   3.46%       10.46
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.10%   0.48%   2.47%   7.05%  12.54%  18.90%  24.97%  21.16%  12.29%       11.67
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.15%   0.81%   2.56%   5.52%  10.79%  18.48%  27.48%  34.18%       12.62
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.26%   1.13%   2.93%   6.47%  13.68%  29.92%  45.55%       13.04  
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  #24  
Old 01-16-2020, 11:02 AM
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So, using these numbers, we have a 99.42% chance of finishing in the top 4. Duquesne checks in at 62.47, Rhode Island 55%, Richmond 53.95, VCU 44.2, Saint Bonaventure 42.72, and St. Louis at 37.07. finally, Davidson checks in at a measly 4.42%. Richmond VCU game on January 28 is monsterous in terms of getting the double bye.
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Old 01-16-2020, 12:24 PM
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Richmond's odds just took a hit - Blake Francis (17.6 ppg) will miss 4-6 weeks with a fractured sternum.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ncis-4-6-weeks

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  #26  
Old 01-20-2020, 09:36 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/19:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton              87.50%   8.83%   2.49%   0.78%   0.29%   0.09%   0.02%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.18
Richmond             3.83%  21.30%  19.16%  16.61%  14.41%  11.83%   8.30%   3.49%   0.82%   0.20%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        4.09
Duquesne             3.48%  20.33%  18.77%  16.99%  14.87%  12.35%   9.26%   3.11%   0.66%   0.14%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        4.14
VA Commonwealth      1.85%  17.62%  17.60%  16.74%  15.65%  13.40%   9.76%   5.84%   1.23%   0.27%   0.05%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        4.45
Rhode Island         2.29%  15.34%  17.40%  17.32%  15.61%  13.77%  10.88%   5.86%   1.21%   0.25%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        4.52
St Louis             0.47%   8.61%  12.15%  14.62%  16.31%  16.96%  16.05%  10.84%   3.09%   0.75%   0.14%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%        5.32
St Bonaventure       0.56%   7.36%  10.61%  13.10%  15.39%  17.65%  18.91%  12.32%   3.14%   0.79%   0.15%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%        5.51
Davidson             0.03%   0.59%   1.71%   3.56%   6.62%  11.49%  19.80%  34.48%  13.65%   5.36%   2.04%   0.60%   0.07%   0.00%        7.44
La Salle             0.00%   0.02%   0.08%   0.22%   0.54%   1.47%   3.57%  10.01%  26.30%  25.61%  19.49%   9.82%   2.76%   0.12%        9.80
George Mason         0.00%   0.01%   0.02%   0.05%   0.19%   0.58%   1.78%   6.29%  21.28%  24.19%  21.86%  15.01%   7.95%   0.79%       10.36
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.10%   0.36%   1.36%   6.14%  20.51%  25.09%  24.39%  14.42%   6.90%   0.70%       10.38
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.06%   0.25%   1.30%   5.67%  10.59%  17.65%  32.27%  27.52%   4.67%       11.74
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.32%   2.45%   6.70%  13.86%  26.53%  47.24%   2.85%       12.17
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.24%   1.28%   7.57%  90.87%       13.89 
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  #27  
Old 01-20-2020, 11:57 AM
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Right now I am more concerned with the 8/9 seeds. Winner plays the 1 seed at noon on Friday in Brooklyn. Don't want to see SLU in either of those slots.
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  #28  
Old 01-20-2020, 01:04 PM
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Potential for separation this week.


UD vs bona, @ Richmond
Duquesne @ Rhody, @ UMass


If both sweep this week, it sets up a scenario where the winner not only commands the #1 seed, but also has a huge 2 game advantage over the rest of the field (everyone else would have at least 2 losses)



If that were to happen, plus VCU and SLU win all their games except vs UD or each other, its possible to have 3-4 teams in strong consideration come selection Sunday.
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  #29  
Old 01-23-2020, 09:59 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/22:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              88.68%   8.43%   2.11%   0.56%   0.17%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.15    99.78% 100.00%
Richmond             4.92%  31.06%  20.54%  15.61%  12.16%   8.33%   4.89%   2.17%   0.29%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.56    72.12% 100.00%
Rhode Island         3.89%  25.45%  27.09%  17.94%  11.61%   7.51%   4.14%   2.04%   0.30%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.59    74.37% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      1.30%  16.27%  18.73%  19.24%  16.61%  12.61%   8.73%   5.39%   0.92%   0.16%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        4.40    55.55%  99.97%
Duquesne             0.99%   9.75%  14.76%  19.51%  19.83%  16.50%  11.66%   5.54%   1.16%   0.24%   0.05%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        4.80    45.01%  99.94%
St Bonaventure       0.09%   4.69%   7.78%  11.27%  14.53%  18.02%  20.02%  17.73%   4.31%   1.20%   0.29%   0.05%   0.01%   0.00%        5.95    23.83%  99.64%
St Louis             0.09%   3.35%   6.39%  10.39%  14.43%  18.36%  20.33%  18.93%   5.72%   1.65%   0.28%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%        6.16    20.22%  99.64%
Davidson             0.04%   0.98%   2.55%   5.25%   9.90%  16.46%  23.82%  28.10%   8.77%   2.91%   0.85%   0.28%   0.06%   0.01%        6.92     8.83%  98.80%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   0.11%   0.37%   1.06%   3.01%   8.91%  32.59%  24.51%  15.51%   8.29%   4.12%   1.48%        9.84     0.15%  70.60%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.11%   0.36%   0.96%   2.66%   7.11%  21.23%  27.47%  19.95%  11.62%   6.07%   2.46%       10.21     0.12%  59.91%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.02%   0.12%   0.51%   2.86%  15.88%  21.71%  25.06%  18.09%  10.77%   4.99%       10.90     0.01%  41.09%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.12%   0.66%   4.21%   8.89%  15.83%  26.19%  25.81%  18.25%       12.13     0.00%  13.92%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.30%   2.87%   6.77%  13.43%  19.73%  26.22%  30.62%       12.50     0.00%  10.01%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.26%   1.75%   4.44%   8.72%  15.66%  26.92%  42.21%       12.87     0.00%   6.49% 
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  #30  
Old 01-27-2020, 09:39 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/26:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              94.72%   4.56%   0.56%   0.13%   0.02%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.06    99.97% 100.00%
Rhode Island         3.90%  39.24%  28.40%  15.34%   7.38%   3.54%   1.58%   0.55%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.03    86.88% 100.00%
Richmond             0.36%  26.91%  22.01%  17.43%  13.84%   9.73%   6.06%   3.15%   0.43%   0.07%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.90    66.71%  99.99%
VA Commonwealth      0.76%  18.91%  23.16%  21.17%  15.19%  10.26%   6.80%   3.32%   0.36%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.08    64.00%  99.99%
Duquesne             0.15%   2.95%   8.56%  15.29%  19.63%  19.61%  17.51%  12.57%   2.73%   0.75%   0.20%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%        5.67    26.95%  99.75%
St Louis             0.06%   4.32%   8.42%  13.11%  16.32%  18.39%  18.75%  15.84%   3.64%   0.91%   0.20%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%        5.81    25.91%  99.75%
St Bonaventure       0.01%   1.40%   4.84%   9.76%  14.87%  18.81%  21.18%  22.13%   4.97%   1.51%   0.42%   0.08%   0.02%   0.00%        6.35    16.01%  99.48%
Davidson             0.04%   1.71%   4.03%   7.67%  12.31%  18.18%  23.35%  24.96%   5.59%   1.60%   0.41%   0.12%   0.02%   0.00%        6.53    13.45%  99.44%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.14%   0.45%   1.43%   5.37%  27.23%  25.20%  19.28%  12.29%   6.63%   1.93%       10.26     0.05%  59.87%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.02%   0.08%   0.28%   1.04%   4.76%  24.88%  24.59%  22.03%  14.82%   6.68%   0.81%       10.36     0.03%  55.66%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   0.20%   0.62%   1.81%   5.34%  17.89%  23.13%  22.17%  17.75%   8.18%   2.87%       10.56     0.04%  49.03%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.11%   0.45%   1.73%   9.33%  15.56%  21.55%  28.15%  17.13%   5.95%       11.38     0.01%  27.22%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.21%   2.43%   5.10%   9.81%  17.07%  32.03%  33.32%       12.70     0.00%   7.76%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.08%   0.47%   1.51%   3.90%   9.63%  29.29%  55.11%       13.31     0.00%   2.07% 
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  #31  
Old 01-27-2020, 11:26 AM
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That was a big jump from 88.68 to 94.72. I guess it reflects us now owning a tie-breaker over a team predicted to finish 3rd. That was Richmond's only game against us.
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  #32  
Old 01-30-2020, 08:50 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/29:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              94.19%   5.32%   0.46%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.06    99.99% 100.00%
Rhode Island         4.90%  51.22%  24.00%  11.95%   5.13%   1.97%   0.64%   0.17%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.71    92.07% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.80%  22.70%  31.39%  20.27%  12.08%   7.18%   3.75%   1.64%   0.16%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.66    75.16% 100.00%
Richmond             0.04%  12.61%  17.76%  19.62%  18.91%  15.80%  10.08%   4.29%   0.74%   0.13%   0.02%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        4.59    50.03%  99.97%
St Louis             0.06%   5.01%  11.37%  16.38%  19.72%  19.18%  15.76%  10.45%   1.64%   0.34%   0.07%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%        5.36    32.82%  99.91%
Duquesne             0.01%   1.30%   7.00%  14.09%  18.98%  21.76%  22.88%  10.40%   2.65%   0.70%   0.19%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%        5.82    22.40%  99.77%
St Bonaventure       0.00%   1.48%   6.67%  14.39%  18.56%  21.05%  20.03%  14.34%   2.77%   0.56%   0.13%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%        5.87    22.54%  99.85%
Davidson             0.00%   0.36%   1.33%   3.19%   6.31%  11.76%  21.55%  37.20%  12.81%   3.91%   1.25%   0.31%   0.03%   0.00%        7.40     4.89%  98.42%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.17%   0.70%   2.92%  11.59%  36.21%  23.68%  14.96%   7.71%   1.92%   0.08%        9.64     0.07%  75.34%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.17%   0.67%   2.59%  16.80%  26.20%  24.52%  18.03%   8.71%   2.27%       10.71     0.01%  46.48%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.25%   1.00%   4.03%  13.83%  20.26%  24.94%  23.96%   9.00%   2.67%       10.84     0.01%  39.43%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.17%   0.71%   3.18%  10.95%  20.62%  24.79%  28.07%  10.53%   0.93%       10.96     0.02%  35.69%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.12%   1.33%   3.07%   6.97%  14.85%  37.41%  36.25%       12.92     0.00%   4.53%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.11%   0.51%   2.17%   6.99%  32.40%  57.81%       13.44     0.00%   0.63% 
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  #33  
Old 02-03-2020, 12:52 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/1:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              92.02%   7.62%   0.34%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.08    99.99% 100.00%
Rhode Island         7.78%  65.90%  18.17%   5.50%   1.87%   0.59%   0.16%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.30    97.36% 100.00%
Richmond             0.06%  13.52%  20.80%  20.30%  17.84%  14.29%   9.14%   3.84%   0.20%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.42    54.67% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.05%   5.38%  28.72%  23.80%  17.58%  12.28%   7.62%   4.29%   0.26%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.44    57.96% 100.00%
St Louis             0.08%   5.02%  13.67%  18.22%  19.13%  18.13%  14.76%  10.20%   0.70%   0.07%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.21    37.00%  99.99%
St Bonaventure       0.00%   1.34%   8.57%  14.31%  18.20%  20.69%  19.78%  15.59%   1.36%   0.14%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.78    24.23%  99.99%
Duquesne             0.00%   0.89%   7.98%  13.75%  17.74%  21.05%  24.27%  12.46%   1.58%   0.24%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.82    22.62%  99.96%
Davidson             0.00%   0.33%   1.75%   4.09%   7.56%  12.65%  22.42%  42.44%   7.29%   1.23%   0.20%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%        7.13     6.17%  99.76%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.22%   1.26%   6.83%  42.26%  24.50%  15.52%   7.36%   1.93%   0.05%        9.75     0.01%  75.14%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.17%   1.05%  18.28%  27.12%  24.20%  17.16%   9.52%   2.47%       10.76     0.00%  46.66%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   0.32%   2.57%  16.98%  22.59%  25.39%  21.02%   8.69%   2.40%       10.80     0.00%  42.51%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.11%   0.64%   8.96%  18.95%  24.11%  31.14%  15.07%   0.99%       11.25     0.00%  28.69%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.08%   2.08%   4.63%   8.79%  17.71%  37.02%  29.70%       12.72     0.00%   6.79%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.05%   0.48%   1.72%   5.58%  27.77%  64.40%       13.54     0.00%   0.54% 
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  #34  
Old 02-06-2020, 12:29 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/5:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              92.37%   7.27%   0.33%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.08   100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island         7.52%  68.57%  17.29%   4.33%   1.50%   0.58%   0.18%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.26    97.71% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.05%   5.45%  30.75%  23.17%  15.90%  11.47%   8.03%   4.94%   0.21%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.42    59.42% 100.00%
Richmond             0.04%  13.08%  18.67%  19.88%  18.80%  14.94%   9.92%   4.45%   0.19%   0.02%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.52    51.67%  99.99%
Duquesne             0.02%   2.22%  16.26%  23.39%  23.83%  19.96%  10.74%   3.31%   0.24%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.90    41.89% 100.00%
St Bonaventure       0.00%   2.00%  12.03%  17.91%  19.11%  18.69%  17.69%  12.24%   0.33%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.44    31.93% 100.00%
St Louis             0.01%   1.14%   3.41%   7.89%  13.66%  20.34%  26.47%  24.87%   1.91%   0.25%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.39    12.45%  99.96%
Davidson             0.00%   0.27%   1.26%   3.41%   7.17%  13.89%  25.84%  41.25%   5.70%   0.99%   0.18%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%        7.12     4.94%  99.78%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.41%   4.02%  38.10%  26.14%  18.35%   9.90%   2.96%   0.06%       10.00     0.00%  68.73%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.18%   1.19%  20.81%  25.83%  23.19%  17.14%   9.30%   2.33%       10.71     0.00%  48.04%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.41%   2.86%  18.90%  22.32%  23.82%  20.77%   8.49%   2.39%       10.74     0.00%  44.53%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.11%   0.76%  11.09%  18.85%  23.68%  29.95%  14.69%   0.85%       11.18     0.00%  30.82%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.09%   2.47%   5.09%   9.09%  17.01%  37.89%  28.36%       12.68     0.00%   7.65%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   0.42%   1.63%   5.20%  26.66%  66.02%       13.56     0.00%   0.49% 
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Old 02-06-2020, 12:50 PM
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Thank you! I love this thread! now letís roll St. Louis!
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Old 02-06-2020, 03:42 PM
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I'm intrigued.
We didn't play.
URI won.
Our chance of being #1 increased while URI declined.
I assumed it's based on URI having less games left to catch up or the strength of their remaining schedule went up since they were favored to beat UMass, thus their percentage decreased?
Not intuitive to me.
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Old 02-06-2020, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
I'm intrigued.
We didn't play.
URI won.
Our chance of being #1 increased while URI declined.
I assumed it's based on URI having less games left to catch up or the strength of their remaining schedule went up since they were favored to beat UMass, thus their percentage decreased?
Not intuitive to me.
He is using Kenpom win probabilities which I believe can change based on the margin of victory or how your prior opponents fared in later games. Basically, Rhode Island's probability of winning its remaining games decreased slightly relative to UD's. Maybe they should have beaten UMass by more.

Or I could be completely off-base.
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  #38  
Old 02-06-2020, 05:32 PM
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but there are also 100,000
simulations being done by Dr Strange
and his multiverse, so....

umm.

okay, I'm going off course
disregard!...)

Go Flyers!

I like Doctor Strange, peeps..)
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  #39  
Old 02-10-2020, 09:26 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/9:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              88.80%  10.70%   0.46%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.12   100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island        11.12%  70.55%  14.49%   2.87%   0.75%   0.19%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.12    99.02% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.04%   4.57%  35.78%  25.80%  16.40%   9.45%   5.63%   2.27%   0.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.17    66.19% 100.00%
Richmond             0.04%  10.41%  20.30%  22.84%  21.36%  13.88%   8.37%   2.74%   0.07%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.44    53.58% 100.00%
St Bonaventure       0.01%   2.86%  21.10%  28.49%  23.59%  12.49%   7.84%   3.58%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.60    52.46% 100.00%
Duquesne             0.00%   0.20%   4.49%  11.27%  21.58%  33.50%  21.93%   6.52%   0.45%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.78    15.96% 100.00%
St Louis             0.00%   0.65%   2.94%   7.15%  12.09%  20.48%  29.68%  24.90%   1.81%   0.26%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.48    10.74%  99.96%
Davidson             0.00%   0.05%   0.44%   1.57%   4.22%   9.89%  25.40%  50.28%   6.59%   1.26%   0.28%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%        7.43     2.06%  99.69%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.27%   3.01%  31.22%  27.21%  20.32%  13.59%   4.32%   0.04%       10.22     0.00%  61.73%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.59%   4.70%  26.50%  23.47%  20.78%  18.29%   5.08%   0.55%       10.37     0.00%  55.31%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.18%   1.31%  17.60%  22.72%  24.45%  25.11%   8.49%   0.09%       10.80     0.00%  41.86%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.08%   0.63%  13.59%  20.16%  25.27%  24.15%  13.54%   2.57%       11.09     0.00%  34.47%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   2.05%   4.78%   8.32%  15.64%  42.69%  26.45%       12.71     0.00%   6.90%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.55%   3.18%  25.88%  70.30%       13.66     0.00%   0.09% 
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  #40  
Old 02-10-2020, 09:49 AM
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Interesting that we beat St. Louis and our probability to be the #1 seed dropped from 92ish% to 88ish%.
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  #41  
Old 02-10-2020, 09:58 AM
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Rhode Island has the much easier stretch. We could split with Rhody and lose @ VCU and Rhody would control the 1 seed due to their sweep of VCU. However they lost to Richmond, where UD won, so if the tie breaker still comes down to record vs the 3rd place team, 4th, etc... then where Richmond vs VCU ends up in the standings could dictate a bunch.


One interesting quirk in their schedule...they have St Louis at home on March 1st and UD coming in 3 days later, seems like a "trap" game if I've ever seen one. Other than that they go to Davidson and should roll in their other games.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:02 AM
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LIBob do you have to subscribe to KenPom to get the win probabilities or do you derive the win probabilities from the KenPom scores that you can see on the free version of the site?
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:04 AM
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I am looking at the SLU 8/9 probabilities more than any other.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I am looking at the SLU 8/9 probabilities more than any other.
This! I donít want to see them the rest of the year!
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
LIBob do you have to subscribe to KenPom to get the win probabilities or do you derive the win probabilities from the KenPom scores that you can see on the free version of the site?

I believe you need to subscribe.


However, google Bart Torvik, he has something similar to kenpom and its free. Its not as popular as KenPom, he is the godfather after all, but its certainly "gaining steam"


http://www.barttorvik.com/#
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  #46  
Old 02-10-2020, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I believe you need to subscribe.


However, google Bart Torvik, he has something similar to kenpom and its free. Its not as popular as KenPom, he is the godfather after all, but its certainly "gaining steam"


http://www.barttorvik.com/#
You can calculate them from the free front page on KenPom's site, but you need to know statistics and have the ability to calculate the cumulative distribution function for a normal distribution. The hidden parameter you need is the standard deviation for men's basketball. I found an article that said the standard deviation KenPom uses is 11 points.

UDEE79, you are enough of an engineer that you should be able to do this brother.
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Old 02-10-2020, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go View Post
calculate the cumulative distribution function for a normal distribution
I always overlook one minor detail.
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Old 02-10-2020, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by UDEE79 View Post
LIBob do you have to subscribe to KenPom to get the win probabilities or do you derive the win probabilities from the KenPom scores that you can see on the free version of the site?
Yes, you need to subscribe. as someone else mentioned, you could go to Bart Torvik or Massey ratings. Their win probablities are usually within a percentage point or two of KenPom (This actually is my first year of subscribing to KenPom, I had used Massey up until this year.)
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Old 02-10-2020, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Interesting that we beat St. Louis and our probability to be the #1 seed dropped from 92ish% to 88ish%.
It had a lot to do with how badly Rhode Island beat GW on the road. For example, their win probability for the home game vs UD went from 33% to 38%. All their remaining probabilities went up similarly while UD's went down ever so slightly for their remaining games based upon how close the SLU game was.

I don't know if I necessarily agree with that, would like to see a bigger diminishing returns factor added in. But that just me, I love to tweak things.
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Old 02-10-2020, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
It had a lot to do with how badly Rhode Island beat GW on the road. For example, their win probability for the home game vs UD went from 33% to 38%. All their remaining probabilities went up similarly while UD's went down ever so slightly for their remaining games based upon how close the SLU game was.

I don't know if I necessarily agree with that, would like to see a bigger diminishing returns factor added in. But that just me, I love to tweak things.
I guess they will just have to play the games and we will see.
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Old 02-12-2020, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Interesting that we beat St. Louis and our probability to be the #1 seed dropped from 92ish% to 88ish%.
Let's see those probabilities today!
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Old 02-12-2020, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Let's see those probabilities today!
You asked for it.

Probabilities Through games of 2/11:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              95.23%   4.65%   0.12%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.05   100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island         4.72%  73.28%  16.63%   3.94%   1.12%   0.26%   0.05%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.24    98.56% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.03%   4.87%  32.37%  25.85%  17.74%  10.17%   6.10%   2.80%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.26    63.13% 100.00%
St Bonaventure       0.01%   5.01%  26.39%  29.69%  21.58%   9.62%   5.49%   2.21%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.30    61.10% 100.00%
Richmond             0.02%  11.18%  17.55%  22.17%  22.48%  14.57%   8.50%   3.44%   0.08%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.51    50.93% 100.00%
Duquesne             0.00%   0.22%   3.94%  10.21%  21.42%  34.62%  21.66%   7.37%   0.51%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.84    14.37% 100.00%
St Louis             0.00%   0.74%   2.41%   6.30%  10.95%  19.31%  28.71%  29.34%   1.98%   0.23%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.61     9.46%  99.97%
Davidson             0.00%   0.05%   0.58%   1.82%   4.70%  11.36%  28.49%  47.21%   4.90%   0.77%   0.11%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        7.31     2.46%  99.88%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.22%   2.12%  32.36%  27.62%  20.56%  13.51%   3.59%   0.01%       10.21     0.00%  62.34%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   0.55%   3.87%  26.83%  24.06%  21.30%  19.00%   4.09%   0.27%       10.36     0.00%  55.34%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.18%   1.11%  17.97%  22.80%  24.90%  25.99%   6.98%   0.03%       10.77     0.00%  42.11%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.52%  13.99%  20.72%  26.11%  25.09%  11.85%   1.64%       11.03     0.00%  35.31%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.31%   3.72%   6.76%  14.56%  49.87%  23.76%       12.79     0.00%   5.04%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.23%   1.84%  23.62%  74.30%       13.72     0.00%   0.02% 
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  #53  
Old 02-12-2020, 09:36 AM
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Dayton is clearly in the driver's seat right now. If Rhode Island has a shot at number 1 in the regular season, it is only because they get help. That help is most likely to come from VCU. If we lose both the road games to RI and VCU but win our other games and RI wins out, there could be a tie at the top.

In that scenario, RI would win a tie breaker against us if VCU finishes in 3rd, because RI already won two games against VCU.

In that scenario, Dayton would win a tie breaker against RI if Richmond finishes 3rd, because RI lost to Richmond in their first match of the year.
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  #54  
Old 02-12-2020, 09:47 AM
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After last night, my hate for URI is almost equal to my hate for _avier basketball and _ichigan football.
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Old 02-12-2020, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
After last night, my hate for URI is almost equal to my hate for _avier basketball and _ichigan football.
shouldn't that be _RI then?

I like using their full name. "University of Rhode Island - New England (URINE)"
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Old 02-12-2020, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go View Post
You can calculate them from the free front page on KenPom's site, but you need to know statistics and have the ability to calculate the cumulative distribution function for a normal distribution. The hidden parameter you need is the standard deviation for men's basketball. I found an article that said the standard deviation KenPom uses is 11 points.

UDEE79, you are enough of an engineer that you should be able to do this brother.
I am enough of an engineer to use someone else work if they already did it!
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Old 02-13-2020, 08:48 AM
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Thumbs up Down goes VCU

Although we are in firm control of the top spot, VCU going down to George Mason added extra grip to our hold.
Richmond moved into the 4 spot. Having defeated URI, they are now the tie breaker if the unthinkable were to happen and we somehow fall into a tie with URI (with a loss at URI).
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Old 02-13-2020, 08:59 AM
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
Although we are in firm control of the top spot, VCU going down to George Mason added extra grip to our hold.
Richmond moved into the 4 spot. Having defeated URI, they are now the tie breaker if the unthinkable were to happen and we somehow fall into a tie with URI (with a loss at URI).
Richmond hosts VCU Saturday afternoon...
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Old 02-13-2020, 09:50 AM
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Root for Richmond. In the event we drop both games @VCU and @URI; and URI wins out, the tiebreaker will come down of record against top team. URI has it if it is VCU because I believe 2-0 is better than 1-0. We are 1-0 vs Richmond vs their 0-1. If SLU was the one we have the 2-0. Hopefully same with Duquesne. That’s probably all that matters.
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:05 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/12:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              96.86%   3.04%   0.09%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.03   100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island         3.08%  69.53%  22.22%   4.17%   0.78%   0.18%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.31    99.00% 100.00%
Richmond             0.06%  20.01%  26.07%  24.81%  15.71%   8.20%   3.91%   1.22%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.83    70.94% 100.00%
St Bonaventure       0.01%   5.69%  32.02%  29.57%  17.70%   8.12%   4.82%   2.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.13    67.30% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.74%  12.54%  20.57%  24.27%  18.33%  13.83%   9.20%   0.45%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.28    33.86%  99.99%
Duquesne             0.00%   0.24%   3.94%  11.30%  23.01%  31.93%  20.95%   7.62%   0.88%   0.13%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.81    15.48%  99.98%
St Louis             0.00%   0.67%   2.51%   7.32%  12.43%  20.16%  26.87%  27.51%   2.17%   0.33%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.53    10.49%  99.95%
Davidson             0.00%   0.08%   0.61%   2.25%   6.09%  12.94%  28.56%  45.09%   3.59%   0.64%   0.12%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%        7.20     2.94%  99.86%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.43%   2.60%  37.58%  29.06%  18.87%   8.47%   2.71%   0.21%       10.00     0.00%  69.74%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.26%   2.12%  27.93%  25.28%  22.52%  17.32%   4.52%   0.01%       10.38     0.00%  55.63%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.20%   1.12%  14.69%  21.78%  25.97%  28.69%   7.46%   0.03%       10.88     0.00%  37.85%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.14%   1.45%  11.34%  19.84%  26.55%  32.51%   7.65%   0.52%       11.02     0.00%  32.76%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.34%   2.86%   5.73%  11.93%  53.62%  24.51%       12.87     0.00%   4.21%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.16%   1.06%  24.03%  74.73%       13.73     0.00%   0.02% 
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  #61  
Old 02-13-2020, 01:25 PM
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Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
Not totally. Just the chance of not getting it is less than .01%. in fact in this simulation, UD did not get a double bye in 2 of the 100,000 simulations.
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  #63  
Old 02-13-2020, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
Not quite. It means that if the odds from KenPom are correct it is vanishingly small that it would happen. Given that we lose the rest of our games and that the 2-5 folk win the rest of theirs, we probably could lose the double bye. But the odds of that happening are very small. We are extremely heavy favorites in most of our remaining games.
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  #64  
Old 02-13-2020, 11:41 PM
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LIBob,

I've been calculating winning percentages from KenPom's free first page. Can you tell me if these are the same as KenPom calculates behind the paywall? I have to guess at home advantage and his standard deviation of basketball scores. Thanks. I calculated these tonight 2/13/20.

91% @Umass
63% @Vcu
91% Duquesne
86% @GMU
90% Davidson
62% @URI
98% GW
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Old 02-14-2020, 07:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go View Post
LIBob,

I've been calculating winning percentages from KenPom's free first page. Can you tell me if these are the same as KenPom calculates behind the paywall? I have to guess at home advantage and his standard deviation of basketball scores. Thanks. I calculated these tonight 2/13/20.

91% @Umass
63% @Vcu
91% Duquesne
86% @GMU
90% Davidson
62% @URI
98% GW

Interestingly enough, your numbers matchup pretty closely to the "matchup predictor" on the ESPN app. +/- 2-3% points. Some are dead on.
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Old 02-14-2020, 09:27 AM
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As of This morning:

Sat Feb 15 199 Massachusetts W, 82-67 69 92% Away ◊
Tue Feb 18 47 VCU W, 74-70 69 64% Away ◊
Sat Feb 22 92 Duquesne W, 79-65 67 91% Home ◊
Tue Feb 25 155 George Mason W, 78-66 67 87% Away ◊
Fri Feb 28 86 Davidson W, 79-66 65 89% Home ◊
Wed Mar 4 45 Rhode Island W, 76-72 70 63% Away ◊
Sat Mar 7 226 George Washington W, 83-60 66 98% Home ◊
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  #67  
Old 02-14-2020, 03:50 PM
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Thumbs down Technically...

Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
If we were to go 0-7 and a perfect combination of statistically improbable other things occurred, we could finish 8th.
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:26 PM
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A win against UMass would put us at 12-0 with only 6 games remaining and ensure we finish above both UMass and GW (both currently at 4-7).

SLU (6-5) hosts La Salle (2-9). SLU will be a heavy favorite.
Davidson (6-5) plays at St. Bonaventure (9-3) The Bonnie's conference schedule has been soft, but they are playing well in their last 3.

SLU and Davidson are almost eliminated from 1st place regular season finish.

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Old 02-17-2020, 09:47 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/16:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              98.03%   1.92%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.02   100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island         1.92%  60.75%  32.98%   3.27%   0.83%   0.21%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.41    98.91% 100.00%
Richmond             0.06%  34.20%  35.47%  16.73%   7.76%   3.56%   1.72%   0.50%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.18    86.45% 100.00%
St Bonaventure       0.00%   1.43%  16.48%  27.23%  21.04%  14.56%  11.57%   7.70%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.96    45.13% 100.00%
Duquesne             0.00%   0.55%   6.61%  17.47%  23.73%  24.80%  17.13%   9.10%   0.58%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.56    24.64% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.07%   3.51%  17.05%  19.11%  18.51%  18.65%  21.77%   1.20%   0.14%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.02    20.63% 100.00%
St Louis             0.00%   0.86%   3.11%  10.88%  13.89%  18.43%  23.09%  29.26%   0.43%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.35    14.85%  99.99%
Davidson             0.00%   0.23%   1.80%   7.36%  13.64%  19.86%  27.38%  28.35%   1.31%   0.08%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.54     9.39% 100.00%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.34%   2.35%  64.71%  22.15%   7.81%   2.45%   0.11%   0.00%        9.42     0.00%  89.63%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.63%  12.77%  29.18%  26.22%  26.09%   5.01%   0.02%       10.79     0.00%  42.67%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.12%   5.78%  30.75%  35.56%  20.03%   6.88%   0.88%       10.94     0.00%  36.66%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.21%  12.53%  15.65%  24.73%  37.88%   8.21%   0.79%       11.15     0.00%  28.39%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.69%   1.95%   5.24%  11.64%  52.03%  28.45%       12.98     0.00%   2.65%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.43%   1.91%  27.78%  69.87%       13.67     0.00%   0.02% 
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  #70  
Old 02-18-2020, 11:59 PM
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Looking very strong for the #1 seed in the A10 tournament.

After tonight's A10 games, it looks like the 8 seed for the A10 tourney most likely will be either...

Davidson
Duquesne
VCU
St. Louis

Wow! That will be a tough matchup for the #1 seed. Good grief!
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Old 02-19-2020, 03:13 AM
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Originally Posted by MD Flyer Pride View Post
Looking very strong for the #1 seed in the A10 tournament.

After tonight's A10 games, it looks like the 8 seed for the A10 tourney most likely will be either...

Davidson
Duquesne
VCU
St. Louis

Wow! That will be a tough matchup for the #1 seed. Good grief!
Let's hope for an upset on Thursday.
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  #72  
Old 02-19-2020, 08:21 AM
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After last night games, the Flyers are assured of a double bye.
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  #73  
Old 02-19-2020, 09:15 AM
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Originally Posted by MD Flyer Pride View Post
Looking very strong for the #1 seed in the A10 tournament.

After tonight's A10 games, it looks like the 8 seed for the A10 tourney most likely will be either...

Davidson
Duquesne
VCU
St. Louis

Wow! That will be a tough matchup for the #1 seed. Good grief!

Davidson by far has the toughest schedule of those fighting for the 8th spot. Hoping they lose at least three of their last 5 as facing VCU or St. L for a third time is not how I would want to start the tourney.
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  #74  
Old 02-19-2020, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by shocka43 View Post
Let's hope for an upset on Thursday.
What game on Thursday? I don't see any A10 games on the calendar for Thursday.
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:22 AM
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
What game on Thursday? I don't see any A10 games on the calendar for Thursday.
I think he means the Thursday of the tournament.
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
I think he means the Thursday of the tournament.
and upset wouldnít really matter because more than likely if one of these teams is not number eight, they are number nine. We get the winner of the 8/9 game. So pick your poison I guess. I think if I had to pick an opponent, it would be Davidson. Itís the only one of the 14s mentioned here we wonít seen twice.
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
and upset wouldnít really matter because more than likely if one of these teams is not number eight, they are number nine. We get the winner of the 8/9 game. So pick your poison I guess. I think if I had to pick an opponent, it would be Davidson. Itís the only one of the 14s mentioned here we wonít seen twice.
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The four teams listed above are in a battle for positions 5 through 8, #9 would more than likely be either GW or UMass
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  #78  
Old 02-19-2020, 09:59 AM
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^


If you use Bart Torvik's system and expected outcome, the 8 & 9 seed would be Davidson vs GW. However, things are still very much up in the air. Any of those teams could fall down to the 8 or 9 seed line, all have tough matchups.



Davidson still has games vs Rhody and VCU plus @ Dayton and @ Richmond plus LaSalle at home. Is Davidson the team that smacked Bona around in Olean, and was the preseason #2 pick, or the team that allowed St joes to storm back from 19 down at half and pick up their first conference win of the year?


Davidson easily won over SLU at home, and would have the tie breaker if those two teams ended up tied for 7th, SLU has the next toughest slate ahead, with games @ Rhody plus home dates with VCU and Bona


Duquesne beat SLU (x2) and Davidson, hard to see them falling to the 8 seed at this point, a Win over GW tonight may just about lock that in.


VCU has the next 2 @ SLU and @ UMass, and close out @ Davidson. Win one of those and they probably stay in the top 7.


Lots of shuffling to be done before Brooklyn, can UD just get a triple bye and move straight to the semis?
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Old 02-19-2020, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
After last night games, the Flyers are assured of a double bye.
I still need the updated spreadsheet. It's like a drug. I need it.
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Old 02-19-2020, 11:13 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I still need the updated spreadsheet. It's like a drug. I need it.
Here you go.

Probabilities Through games of 2/18:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              99.47%   0.52%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.01   100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island         0.52%  62.32%  34.52%   2.25%   0.30%   0.07%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.40    99.61% 100.00%
Richmond             0.01%  34.97%  37.62%  18.32%   6.33%   2.09%   0.54%   0.12%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.05    90.92% 100.00%
St Bonaventure       0.00%   1.65%  19.26%  37.43%  19.41%  11.39%   7.65%   3.21%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.55    58.34% 100.00%
Duquesne             0.00%   0.47%   6.43%  20.62%  32.08%  27.50%   9.64%   2.80%   0.40%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.22    27.52% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   1.16%  14.59%  21.95%  19.01%  20.98%  19.68%   2.17%   0.43%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.14    15.75%  99.98%
St Louis             0.00%   0.06%   0.76%   4.80%  12.30%  20.57%  27.90%  32.16%   1.31%   0.12%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.72     5.63%  99.99%
Davidson             0.00%   0.01%   0.24%   1.98%   7.58%  19.11%  31.99%  33.74%   4.80%   0.51%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.04     2.23%  99.95%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.17%   0.89%   5.10%  53.54%  27.10%   9.70%   3.29%   0.19%   0.00%        9.50     0.00%  86.82%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.09%   0.38%   2.24%  22.33%  36.13%  23.53%  14.40%   0.89%   0.00%       10.27     0.00%  61.18%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.26%   4.92%  20.97%  39.93%  23.32%   8.53%   2.05%       11.15     0.00%  26.17%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.70%  10.03%  13.32%  21.09%  43.28%   9.44%   2.13%       11.33     0.00%  24.06%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.50%   1.35%   4.05%   9.99%  38.48%  45.63%       13.22     0.00%   1.85%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   1.62%   5.72%  42.47%  50.18%       13.41     0.00%   0.02% 
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  #81  
Old 02-20-2020, 02:33 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/19:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              99.60%   0.40%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00   100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island         0.40%  59.37%  37.98%   2.03%   0.17%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.42    99.78% 100.00%
Richmond             0.00%  38.61%  40.05%  17.39%   2.83%   0.82%   0.26%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.88    96.05% 100.00%
St Bonaventure       0.00%   1.49%  18.60%  42.09%  20.37%   9.28%   5.54%   2.62%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.44    62.18% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.77%  16.91%  26.18%  20.53%  17.61%  14.45%   2.74%   0.80%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.96    17.68%  99.98%
Duquesne             0.00%   0.04%   1.32%   9.44%  24.10%  30.06%  20.60%  10.52%   3.44%   0.48%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.07    10.80%  99.99%
St Louis             0.00%   0.08%   0.95%   8.47%  15.22%  19.68%  24.67%  27.73%   2.92%   0.28%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.55     9.50%  99.99%
Davidson             0.00%   0.01%   0.33%   3.66%  10.86%  18.44%  26.12%  26.86%  12.58%   1.05%   0.08%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.03     4.00%  99.91%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.23%   1.01%   4.66%  15.10%  61.18%  15.04%   2.61%   0.18%   0.00%   0.00%        8.92     0.00%  97.22%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.15%   0.53%   1.79%   8.94%  47.11%  25.59%  15.34%   0.51%   0.00%       10.43     0.00%  58.56%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.78%   7.44%  15.92%  27.30%  44.52%   3.84%   0.20%       11.20     0.00%  24.14%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.10%   0.74%  19.13%  41.21%  26.97%   9.51%   2.32%       11.32     0.00%  19.99%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.59%   5.36%  47.80%  45.25%       13.37     0.00%   0.00%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.20%   1.58%   7.63%  38.34%  52.23%       13.41     0.00%   0.22% 
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Old 02-20-2020, 03:36 PM
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Old 02-23-2020, 12:13 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/22:

There is a greater probability that VCU will have to play on Wednesday than UD falling to the #2 seed. What a time to be alive!!

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton              99.60%   0.40%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00   100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island         0.40%  59.37%  37.98%   2.03%   0.17%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.42    99.78% 100.00%
Richmond             0.00%  38.61%  40.05%  17.39%   2.83%   0.82%   0.26%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.88    96.05% 100.00%
St Bonaventure       0.00%   1.49%  18.60%  42.09%  20.37%   9.28%   5.54%   2.62%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.44    62.18% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.77%  16.91%  26.18%  20.53%  17.61%  14.45%   2.74%   0.80%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.96    17.68%  99.98%
Duquesne             0.00%   0.04%   1.32%   9.44%  24.10%  30.06%  20.60%  10.52%   3.44%   0.48%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.07    10.80%  99.99%
St Louis             0.00%   0.08%   0.95%   8.47%  15.22%  19.68%  24.67%  27.73%   2.92%   0.28%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.55     9.50%  99.99%
Davidson             0.00%   0.01%   0.33%   3.66%  10.86%  18.44%  26.12%  26.86%  12.58%   1.05%   0.08%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.03     4.00%  99.91%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.23%   1.01%   4.66%  15.10%  61.18%  15.04%   2.61%   0.18%   0.00%   0.00%        8.92     0.00%  97.22%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.15%   0.53%   1.79%   8.94%  47.11%  25.59%  15.34%   0.51%   0.00%       10.43     0.00%  58.56%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.78%   7.44%  15.92%  27.30%  44.52%   3.84%   0.20%       11.20     0.00%  24.14%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.10%   0.74%  19.13%  41.21%  26.97%   9.51%   2.32%       11.32     0.00%  19.99%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.59%   5.36%  47.80%  45.25%       13.37     0.00%   0.00%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.20%   1.58%   7.63%  38.34%  52.23%       13.41     0.00%   0.22% 
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  #84  
Old 02-24-2020, 09:53 AM
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Really hoping St. Louis hangs onto the app seventh spot. I have a feeling the Atlantic 10 tournament could be very weird
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Old 02-24-2020, 10:01 AM
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I'm feeling pretty good about our chances of playing at noon on Friday.
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  #86  
Old 02-24-2020, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
Really hoping St. Louis hangs onto the app seventh spot. I have a feeling the Atlantic 10 tournament could be very weird
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It's about a 70% chance that they end up 7 or better. They'd have a shot at a double buy from a record standpoint but they get killed with the tiebreakers.
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Old 02-24-2020, 10:35 AM
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If the season ended today

UD would await the winner of #8 VCU vs #9 GW.
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Old 02-24-2020, 10:36 AM
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LIBob, do you know the "Predict the Score" algorithm???
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Old 02-24-2020, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic View Post
UD would await the winner of #8 VCU vs #9 GW.
I think I would almost rather have the 3 slot than the 1 slot in this scenario.
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Old 02-24-2020, 11:10 AM
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Looking to catch a game in Brooklyn with my son, sister and brother all UD alum. My brother is in a wheel chair due to a stroke so we will be looking for specific seating. When will the day and times be announced? Hoping for Friday at noon.
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Old 02-24-2020, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by LI2UD2PA View Post
Looking to catch a game in Brooklyn with my son, sister and brother all UD alum. My brother is in a wheel chair due to a stroke so we will be looking for specific seating. When will the day and times be announced? Hoping for Friday at noon.
The A10 bracket with seeds and times are already up and running.

LIBob's probabilities, based on thousands of runs have UD as a #1 seed at 99.60%. The Figstats probabilities based on all 268,435,456 results have UD as a #1 seed 98.89%. It would require a lot for UD to not get the #1 seed.

With that said, the #1 seed plays Friday at noon, then Saturday at 1pm, and Sunday at 1pm.
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  #92  
Old 02-24-2020, 11:38 AM
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All game times:

https://atlantic10.com/sports/2019/8/28/211810221.aspx
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Old 02-27-2020, 10:50 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/10:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton             100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00   100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island         0.00%  61.76%  35.23%   2.76%   0.24%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.41    99.76% 100.00%
Richmond             0.00%  36.74%  39.44%  16.55%   5.28%   1.31%   0.69%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.97    92.72% 100.00%
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.97%  17.77%  43.01%  17.13%  14.36%   6.43%   0.33%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.47    61.74% 100.00%
Duquesne             0.00%   0.13%   3.07%  17.62%  40.38%  20.50%  12.84%   4.43%   1.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.39    20.82% 100.00%
St Louis             0.00%   0.38%   3.16%  13.75%  19.54%  24.18%  33.08%   5.75%   0.17%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.87    17.29% 100.00%
Davidson             0.00%   0.03%   1.34%   6.16%  14.18%  29.63%  27.25%  21.12%   0.30%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.40     7.53% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.15%   3.18%   9.72%  17.93%  42.85%  20.53%   5.52%   0.13%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.84     0.15%  99.88%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   0.29%   1.72%  19.46%  45.17%  24.12%   8.79%   0.37%   0.00%   0.00%        9.19     0.00%  90.84%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   6.06%  23.44%  55.47%  14.28%   0.69%   0.00%   0.00%        9.80     0.00%  85.03%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   8.89%  12.63%  29.66%  48.56%   0.26%   0.00%       11.19     0.00%  21.52%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.48%   2.25%  47.15%  48.10%   2.02%   0.00%       11.49     0.00%   2.74%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.26%  59.81%  39.93%       13.40     0.00%   0.00%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.02%  37.91%  60.07%       13.58     0.00%   0.00%
Note: Although Dayton appears as a 100% chance for a number 1 seed, they have not clinched it. 1 of the 100,000 placed them at the #2 seed.
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  #94  
Old 02-27-2020, 11:19 AM
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  #95  
Old 02-27-2020, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 2/10:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average SeedDouble Bye    Bye
Dayton             100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00   100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island         0.00%  61.76%  35.23%   2.76%   0.24%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.41    99.76% 100.00%
Richmond             0.00%  36.74%  39.44%  16.55%   5.28%   1.31%   0.69%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.97    92.72% 100.00%
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.97%  17.77%  43.01%  17.13%  14.36%   6.43%   0.33%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.47    61.74% 100.00%
Duquesne             0.00%   0.13%   3.07%  17.62%  40.38%  20.50%  12.84%   4.43%   1.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.39    20.82% 100.00%
St Louis             0.00%   0.38%   3.16%  13.75%  19.54%  24.18%  33.08%   5.75%   0.17%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.87    17.29% 100.00%
Davidson             0.00%   0.03%   1.34%   6.16%  14.18%  29.63%  27.25%  21.12%   0.30%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.40     7.53% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.15%   3.18%   9.72%  17.93%  42.85%  20.53%   5.52%   0.13%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.84     0.15%  99.88%
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   0.29%   1.72%  19.46%  45.17%  24.12%   8.79%   0.37%   0.00%   0.00%        9.19     0.00%  90.84%
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   6.06%  23.44%  55.47%  14.28%   0.69%   0.00%   0.00%        9.80     0.00%  85.03%
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   8.89%  12.63%  29.66%  48.56%   0.26%   0.00%       11.19     0.00%  21.52%
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.48%   2.25%  47.15%  48.10%   2.02%   0.00%       11.49     0.00%   2.74%
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.26%  59.81%  39.93%       13.40     0.00%   0.00%
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.02%  37.91%  60.07%       13.58     0.00%   0.00%
Note: Although Dayton appears as a 100% chance for a number 1 seed, they have not clinched it. 1 of the 100,000 placed them at the #2 seed.
The best part is seeing how unlikely it is that we play SLU in the first game
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  #96  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:06 PM
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Am I Right?

So, if these projections hold:

1) Dayton vs 8) VCU / 9) UMass
2) RI vs 7) Davidson / 10) GW
3) Richmond vs 6) St Louis / 11)La Salle / 14)Fordham
4) St Bona vs 5) Duquesne / 12) GM / 13) St Joe's

I like that bracket.

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  #97  
Old 02-27-2020, 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86 View Post
The best part is seeing how unlikely it is that we play SLU in the first game

Agree. I do not want St Louis!
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Agree. I do not want St Louis!
I DO want SLU again. I'd like a third bite at that apple to see if we can put the beatdown on them that they deserve. Yes, they match with us well and have done a GREAT job of taking away some of things that we like to do and do well, but I say bring them on again and let US impose our will...ÖÖ.and shoot maybe 12-20 from three-point range to boot.
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Old 02-27-2020, 05:24 PM
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I actually agree with SLUFLYER, If UD's tournament dreams are locked up, and the only difference is b/w a 1 & a 2 seed, give them the challenge that will prepare them for the bigger stage a week later. Lord knows there will be some tough, physical grind out games to be won, the more practice the better (provided no injuries of course, that will be the biggest take away from Brooklyn)
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Old 02-27-2020, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I actually agree with SLUFLYER
Bro, you say it like it's against your nature? Or a shockingly recent development? Where's the love?
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