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  #101  
Old 04-07-2020, 04:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Seriously, with all you've looked into that, does it appear that Ohio has peaked, or is very close to it? I get that its still a bit early to "call it"...
I don't think the data presents anything specifically saying we've peaked. Maybe we have "peaked" as it doesn't seem like we've continued to have exponential daily growth. I don't think we've peaked in that we are now going down. It's like we have hit a plateau, but we don't know how long the plateau will last.

Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I get that its still a bit early to "call it" but if Rollo held a gun to your head and forced you to say one way or the other, what would be your call? I'd say yes, and hope that I'm right (for both reasons )
I'd call rollo's bluff. He knows he'd have a Royal Roundtable Rebellion if he pulled the trigger. He'd become the 2020 Napoleon.
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  #102  
Old 04-07-2020, 04:36 PM
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ha, good call. Thanks for the feedback.
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  #103  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:21 PM
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  #104  
Old Yesterday, 09:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
I don't think the data presents anything specifically saying we've peaked. Maybe we have "peaked" as it doesn't seem like we've continued to have exponential daily growth. I don't think we've peaked in that we are now going down. It's like we have hit a plateau, but we don't know how long the plateau will last.



I'd call rollo's bluff. He knows he'd have a Royal Roundtable Rebellion if he pulled the trigger. He'd become the 2020 Napoleon.
Read this article and thought you might find it interesting: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-meaningless/
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  #105  
Old Yesterday, 11:09 AM
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IHME still predicts today as "peak day" (resources) and peak death day over this weekend. We shall see how this plays out, I wonder if Acton will have her modeling showdown today or not.
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  #106  
Old Yesterday, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
4/7 UPDATE:


3/31 from 243 to 254
4/1 from 186 to 211


Is the 3/31 date mostly locked in? Will 4/1 be mostly locked in by tomorrow? guess we will know in a few days

I'll keep going back to these dates until it appears that we've moved to steady ground. Figgie said data indicates that there will be about 50 more added to each day overall, I'm gonna hold him to that


3/31 -> 253 (so down 1?)
4/1 -> 219 (so up 8)
4/2 195 which is about where 4/1 was 2 days ago, so will it jump to the 220ish range tomorrow?
4/3 201 (same question)
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  #107  
Old Yesterday, 02:06 PM
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I also want to look at something else, according to the IMHE model, they are predicting we peak in deaths on Easter Sunday, nothing new there. Their models are showing about 25 new deaths each day until then then starting to back away.


Today there were 5, 20 less than their model predicted (I think we can all agree that is a good thing), will there be 45 tomorrow to "make up the difference" or will it fall below the predicted curve.


Another day of data, and I still say it looks like we've peaked as the IHME model proclaims, or perhaps plateaued is the better term, especially since its figgie's.


Also, no new model on Ohio's site. I can't believe they don't update theirs daily like the IHME people do, Acton stated as much early on saying they were constantly updating it as more information becomes available. Despite Acton declaring a showdown this week in modelling 101 (perhaps it comes today) I'm led to believe the latest trends indicate this thing is going very well and the only reason she isn't updating it publicly b/c they still wants us locked down (for better or worse)

Last edited by Medford; Yesterday at 02:09 PM..
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  #108  
Old Yesterday, 02:10 PM
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Oooppps, I typed too soon, a new model was posted as I wrote that:


https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/por...orecast-model/
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  #109  
Old Yesterday, 02:13 PM
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New Ohio model says we peak on 2/19 w/ a peak of 1,607 new cases a day. Honestly, looking at the current numbers, and eliminating social distancing and all other measures, it seems highly unlikely Ohio gets to those numbers on 2/19. I can't fathom the stay at home order ending any time prior to 5/1 social distancing is certainly still in effect then even then, at best it will be a gradual re-opening.
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  #110  
Old Yesterday, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
I'll keep going back to these dates until it appears that we've moved to steady ground. Figgie said data indicates that there will be about 50 more added to each day overall, I'm gonna hold him to that


3/31 -> 253 (so down 1?)
4/1 -> 219 (so up 8)
4/2 195 which is about where 4/1 was 2 days ago, so will it jump to the 220ish range tomorrow?
4/3 201 (same question)
When I said 50 more added to each day overall, I'm looking at the numbers from the previous 2 weeks or so in the +8 through +12 days from the days prior to 4/1. Between 50 and 60 have occurred in that day range. And, we are still getting numbers for +13 and further as well but they start to stop trickling in at some point. For instance, 3/23 had 13 more cases pop up today. (And, yes, 3/31 was -1 today) As well as 2 more on 2/29.
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  #111  
Old Yesterday, 02:20 PM
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I'm not sure what you meant, I thought you meant that the numbers I had listed yesterday, you expected another 50 cases to be added based upon history before that day stopped having new cases added?


Is that wrong? Once again, you have me confused, I just need an extension cord to your brain so I can enter it like the matrix
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  #112  
Old Yesterday, 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Another day of data, and I still say it looks like we've peaked as the IHME model proclaims, or perhaps plateaued is the better term, especially since its figgie's.
The last 6 days has an average of 374 new cases per day, with a standard deviation of 48. 6 days is NOT a good sample size, but the range is 304 to 427. 70 from average to minimum, and 54 from average to maximum.
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  #113  
Old Yesterday, 02:29 PM
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I will agree that 6 days is definitely not a good sample size; its all I got to make my call. We will know either way this time next week. Since it appears that Ohio will have more than enough ventilators and ICU rooms, I'm more focused on death as that is the ultimate marker to know when we are thru this.


Edit, also thanks for the average total new cases added in, that is way lower than their current model says for the last 6 days.

Last edited by Medford; Yesterday at 02:31 PM..
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