Myth Busters

[Marysville Flyer]

I was going to compile this after the regular season was over but someone else stated a few so here goes

1.) Conference Myths
- A10 sucks — we have to be in a better conference to get where we want to be
- can’t ever be higher than a 6 seed in this conference
- we must not be doing everything we can to do what I say has to occur - new conference affiliation

Conclusion - Busted
- many of us have tried to point out that lack of NCAA success has had little to do with conference and most to do with execution

2.) Schedule Myths
- This year’s (insert year here) schedule sucks
- must follow the 15/15 model
- Neil is clueless - always with the excuses and money - we need a new Neil in town (ala Seinfeld)

Conclusion - Busted
- most every year the schedule has been brilliantly put together given the challenges and has allowed ample opportunity for NCAA success
- you don’t know more than those involved nor half as much as you think you do

3.) AG Myths
- Quality Guy - Bad Hire
- Great Recruiter - Can’t develop players
- Great D but severely challenged Offensively
- Poor in game coach
- AG can’t improve from past performance so he was the wrong guy for the job
— His stint at Alabama proves I’m right
- Doesn’t know how to use his TOs

Conclusion - Busted

4.) A10 refs are some of the best around

Conclusion - Way Busted
- See any A10 game
- See especially UD at SLU, RI ....
Posted via Mobile Device

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[rollo]

3 out of 4...not bad!

[m21eagle45]

Just so you guys know, there is no such thing as A10 refs, Big10 refs, ect. Many of these refs call 5 or 6 games a week in 3 or 4 different leagues. Many of the guys we get at the Arena are calling Big10, Big12, AAC, MAC, and MVC games. The guys last night call a lot of A10, ACC, and Big East games. It's more about where the refs are located and which league the people that do the assigning gives preference to.

[ClaytonFlyerFan]

What exactly are A-10 refs? I see many use this reference, but in reality really no such thing as A-10 refs, they are NCAA refs.

These guys work for multiple conferences as independent contractors. Do we think they look at the schedule and say "Hey, tonight I got the A-10, lets drink our lunch and see how bad we can suck" Yea, do not answer that, I am sure some think so.

EDIT- Good post M21Eagle, you beat me to it, posted as I was typing!

[Marysville Flyer]

I know there are no exclusive A10 refs but if it’s an A10 game for that game they are A10 refs. Also many refs do work a large number of their games in a geographic region which often aligns well with a specific conference.

If you want to nit pick this too I’ll change it to ‘Refs doing A10 games’ :-)
Posted via Mobile Device

[ClaytonFlyerFan]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer I know there are no exclusive A10 refs but if it’s an A10 game for that game they are A10 refs. Also many refs do work a large number of their games in a geographic region which often aligns well with a specific conference. If you want to nit pick this too I’ll change it to ‘Refs doing A10 games’ :-) Posted via Mobile Device

No worries, only 1% of my comment aimed at you, the other 99% to the other 99 people I have seen in the last week comment either here or on social media about "A-10 refs"

[ClaytonFlyerFan]

Originally Posted by rollo 3 out of 4...not bad!

So you think the A-10 sucks too?

[m21eagle45]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer I know there are no exclusive A10 refs but if it’s an A10 game for that game they are A10 refs. Also many refs do work a large number of their games in a geographic region which often aligns well with a specific conference. If you want to nit pick this too I’ll change it to ‘Refs doing A10 games’ :-) Posted via Mobile Device

Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan No worries, only 1% of my comment aimed at you, the other 99% to the other 99 people I have seen in the last week comment either here or on social media about "A-10 refs"

Same, my comment wasn't directed at you as well. Just like Clayton said, there has been a lot of posts on here and social media blaming A10 refs.

[TA111]

As far as the refs go, the only thing I ask is that they call the game consistent. Sure there are bad calls every game, but that’s human nature.

[N2663R]

Is there a website/app/database that tracks what refs referee what games in what leagues over a season? Something out of Vegas? There’s an app/database for everything else.

[m21eagle45]

Originally Posted by N2663R Is there a website/app/database that tracks what refs referee what games in what leagues over a season? Something out of Vegas? There’s an app/database for everything else.

I typically use this when I feel the need to look up an official. https://www.phillyref.com/basketball...refsleads.html

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by N2663R Is there a website/app/database that tracks what refs referee what games in what leagues over a season? Something out of Vegas? There’s an app/database for everything else.

There used to be a site that tracked referees but I can't seem to find it anymore. It used to track where and who they officiated, how they called games for home and away teams, technical fouls, etc. Wish I could find it again.

[shwag33]

You're wrong about the conference. It's not that there's no chance it's that your odds of doing it year in and year out without a large dropoff is much easier in the better conference.

Teams can catch lightning in a bottle for a year or two. Look at GMU; made the final four and hasn't done anything since.

[steve]

Originally Posted by rollo 3 out of 4...not bad!

2 out of 3 ain't bad....Meatloaf

[superfan99]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer I was going to compile this after the regular season was over but someone else stated a few so here goes 1.) Conference Myths - A10 sucks — we have to be in a better conference to get where we want to be - can’t ever be higher than a 6 seed in this conference - we must not be doing everything we can to do what I say has to occur - new conference affiliation Conclusion - Busted - many of us have tried to point out that lack of NCAA success has had little to do with conference and most to do with execution 2.) Schedule Myths - This year’s (insert year here) schedule sucks - must follow the 15/15 model - Neil is clueless - always with the excuses and money - we need a new Neil in town (ala Seinfeld) Conclusion - Busted - most every year the schedule has been brilliantly put together given the challenges and has allowed ample opportunity for NCAA success - you don’t know more than those involved nor half as much as you think you do 3.) AG Myths - Quality Guy - Bad Hire - Great Recruiter - Can’t develop players - Great D but severely challenged Offensively - Poor in game coach - AG can’t improve from past performance so he was the wrong guy for the job — His stint at Alabama proves I’m right - Doesn’t know how to use his TOs Conclusion - Busted 4.) A10 refs are some of the best around Conclusion - Way Busted - See any A10 game - See especially UD at SLU, RI .... Posted via Mobile Device

I don't necessarily agree that 1 & 2 are "busted". We are 24-2 and undefeated in the conference. Of course 1 & 2 are fine this year. If not, we would be in serious trouble. I assume the people claiming 1 & 2 are talking about a more realistic 20-6 start. I wouldn't count on a year like this being typical or realistic very often.


The Big 10 has a chance to get 10 of 14 teams in the dance, that is what people mean with #1. I would like to be able to make the tourney without having to be as amazing as we have been this season.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by shwag33 You're wrong about the conference. It's not that there's no chance it's that your odds of doing it year in and year out without a large dropoff is much easier in the better conference. Teams can catch lightning in a bottle for a year or two. Look at GMU; made the final four and hasn't done anything since.

Exactly. Maybe he should've said, any team from the A10 can be a top seed as long as they stumble upon a player that outplays his recruiting into a Wooden Award favorite. So, yeah, about once every 20 years or so.

And please don't point me to St. Joes of 2004, it's not the same A10 without Xavier and Temple.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[Marysville Flyer]

Originally Posted by superfan99 I don't necessarily agree that 1 & 2 are "busted". We are 24-2 and undefeated in the conference. Of course 1 & 2 are fine this year. If not, we would be in serious trouble. I assume the people claiming 1 & 2 are talking about a more realistic 20-6 start. I wouldn't count on a year like this being typical or realistic very often. The Big 10 has a chance to get 10 of 14 teams in the dance, that is what people mean with #1. I would like to be able to make the tourney without having to be as amazing as we have been this season.

From the busted view, it is clear that UD has fallen short thru only their own doing.

Butler became a household name with a weaker schedule and worse conference by winning. Same with the Zags. X became a power in the A10 and would have been with or without Temple because they won.

We aren't getting in the Big10, 12, ACC, SEC, PAC so what they get or don't get is meaninglness in this discussion.

The statement about 6 seed being the best A10 can produce had no disclaimers to it - it was an absolute.

And the GMU example is just as meaningless. Are you saying UD=GMU in resources, fan support, $, name? GMU in the A10 does though have the same opportunities as anyone else in the A10.

The point many of us have made ad nauseum to the 'only if' crowd is simple:

UD has a vehicle that provides between 2-4 teams a year to the NCAA tourney, and a schedule that if enough games are won, they would be one of those teams every year.

The non-busters want to argue that somehow it is the Conf or Schedule's fault that consistent success hasn't happened?

No, UD just needs to look in the mirror and then figure out how to be dominant where they are until if or when a better option presents itself. If UD can't figure the first out, new conference or better teams surely isn't going to solve the problem, they'll make it worse.

One could easily argue that a new conference hasn't helped A10 established powerhouse X's results any - since leaving they

Missed the tourney in 2013
- 1st time in 8 years
- they only missed 1 time in their previous 12 years in the A10

Since then they lost
- as a 12 in the play-in game
- as a 6 in Sweet 16
- as a 2 in 2nd round
- as an 11 in Elite 8
- as a 1 in Second Round
- In danger of missing again this year

BIG East - Total wins of 7 in 6 years - (1 elite 8 - 1 sweet 16 in half as many years)
lowly A10 - 15 wins in 12 years - (2 elite 8s - 3 sweet 16s)

We don't have to be 24-2 to be safely in this year. 3 more losses at this point and we are still easily in as a single digit seed.

	Temple TEMPLE UNIVERSITY Founded in 1884 by Dr. Russell Conwell, Temple College became Temple University in 1907. Located in Philadelphia, Temple is a comprehensive public research university with 34,000 students, 8 campuses, and 300 academic degree programs. Notable alumni include Bill Cosby and Daryl Hall. Temple's nickname is the Owls and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer Butler became a household name with a weaker schedule and worse conference by winning.

Not true at all...BU several times played a significantly tougher ooc schedule than us...several years of 15/15 or 14 home/16 away/neutral for BU.

I will agree that the Horizon League was/still is much weaker than the A10.

BU still plays a 15/15 sometimes fwiw.

[SLUFLYER]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer One could easily argue that a new conference hasn't helped A10 established powerhouse X's results any - since leaving they Missed the tourney in 2013 - 1st time in 8 years - they only missed 1 time in their previous 12 years in the A10 Since then they lost - as a 12 in the play-in game - as a 6 in Sweet 16 - as a 2 in 2nd round - as an 11 in Elite 8 - as a 1 in Second Round - In danger of missing again this year BIG East - Total wins of 7 in 6 years - (1 elite 8 - 1 sweet 16 in half as many years) lowly A10 - 15 wins in 12 years - (2 elite 8s - 3 sweet 16s) We don't have to be 24-2 to be safely in this year. 3 more losses at this point and we are still easily in as a single digit seed.

You could argue that, re: Xavier, but it would be a weak argument with lots of holes. The only place that argument gets any "steam" is if you're measuring by NCAAt success ONLY. And let's be honest, the tournament can really be a crap shoot. Your own data above suggests otherwise re: the Big East's benefit to helping establish Xavier - they got a 2-seed AND a 1-seed in a 3-year period. Dayton, on the other hand, is having a once in a generation season and will probably get a 2-seed. Xavier had the equivalent of our "once in a generation" season TWICE in 3 years. And they've advanced further in the seasons where they had modest/average seeds.

And they're not in much danger of missing this year. Their average seed is ~9 and they appear in 104/108 bracket projects. This puts them ~10 teams INSIDE the cut line. And you know what the Big East also brings? MUCH greater opportunity. X was all but left for dead a month ago. But the opportunity to pick up 4 or 5 Quality wins in a 2 to 3 week period is HUGE.

Yeah, if you're trying to sell me that the Big East hasn't helped previously established A10 powerhouse Xavier, I'm not buying.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[The Fly]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer Missed the tourney in 2013 - 1st time in 8 years - they only missed 1 time in their previous 12 years in the A10 Since then they lost - as a 12 in the play-in game - as a 6 in Sweet 16 - as a 2 in 2nd round - as an 11 in Elite 8 - as a 1 in Second Round - In danger of missing again this year BIG East - Total wins of 7 in 6 years - (1 elite 8 - 1 sweet 16 in half as many years) lowly A10 - 15 wins in 12 years - (2 elite 8s - 3 sweet 16s)

Just for clarification, X also missed the tourney last year (2019). Their prospects this year are dicey but probable given their NET ranking and remaining schedule.

[Don]

Originally Posted by CT Flyer There used to be a site that tracked referees but I can't seem to find it anymore. It used to track where and who they officiated, how they called games for home and away teams, technical fouls, etc. Wish I could find it again.

Regardless of whether the refs are league affiliated or not.....is there any accountability for poor performance? With the analytics now available for player and team evaluation, it seems like the same approach would lend itself well to highlighting officiating. I would be personally interested in seeing how even the calls are in the last 5-10 minutes of close games between a big name team and a Cinderella....particularly in NCAA tournament games.

[Swampy Meadows]

Originally Posted by Don Regardless of whether the refs are league affiliated or not.....is there any accountability for poor performance?

Yes, there is. At the URI game I sat next to Ted Hillary an "Official Observer" from the NCAA and he took copious notes.

	Rhode Island RHODE ISLAND The University of Rhode Island was chartered as the state's agricultural school in 1888. The school became the Rhode Island College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts in 1892. Located in southern Rhode Island, URI is a quintessential New England campus - rural in feeling yet close to the city of Providence, the state's capital. Linked to the city, the beaches, and nearly every corner of the state by both rail and public transit, the campus is easily accessible from Boston and New York URI currently offers 100 majors in seven degree-granting colleges. There are more than 12,000 students on the Kingston campus, about 3,000 in Providence, and a complement of about 700 faculty. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams.

[NJFlyr71]

Originally Posted by rollo 3 out of 4...not bad!

And a Bronx Cheer goes out to you BOOOOOOOOOOO

Next?

[NJFlyr71]

Originally Posted by TA111 As far as the refs go, the only thing I ask is that they call the game consistent. Sure there are bad calls every game, but that’s human nature.

So you're excluding Rollo here and now? Geez you got a pair!

[NJFlyr71]

Originally Posted by ud2 Not true at all...BU several times played a significantly tougher ooc schedule than us...several years of 15/15 or 14 home/16 away/neutral for BU. I will agree that the Horizon League was/still is much weaker than the A10. BU still plays a 15/15 sometimes fwiw.

You must be a numerologist. What is magical or predictive about 15 and 15 scheduling? Its about Who you play and What you do that counts not some scheduling routine.

[Marysville Flyer]

Originally Posted by SLUFLYER You could argue that, re: Xavier, but it would be a weak argument with lots of holes. The only place that argument gets any "steam" is if you're measuring by NCAAt success ONLY. And let's be honest, the tournament can really be a crap shoot. Your own data above suggests otherwise re: the Big East's benefit to helping establish Xavier - they got a 2-seed AND a 1-seed in a 3-year period. Dayton, on the other hand, is having a once in a generation season and will probably get a 2-seed. Xavier had the equivalent of our "once in a generation" season TWICE in 3 years. And they've advanced further in the seasons where they had modest/average seeds. And they're not in much danger of missing this year. Their average seed is ~9 and they appear in 104/108 bracket projects. This puts them ~10 teams INSIDE the cut line. And you know what the Big East also brings? MUCH greater opportunity. X was all but left for dead a month ago. But the opportunity to pick up 4 or 5 Quality wins in a 2 to 3 week period is HUGE. Yeah, if you're trying to sell me that the Big East hasn't helped previously established A10 powerhouse Xavier, I'm not buying.

Helped them how - getting a flashy seed? X won 2 total games as a 1 and 2 seed so who cares about seeding if it doesn't lead to greater success. In contrast, they won 5 games in 2 Big East seasons as a 6 and 11 so tell me again why the 1 seed and 2 seed means much improved?

In the A10 X had 5 years in the prior 12 years where they had much higher seeds than 1 or 2 and they won as many games in EACH of those years as they did in the 1/2 seed 2 years COMBINED.

Most crying for the big east imply or state that it will be a big step up in recruitment, ncaa opportunities and overall success. X clearly hasn't stepped up at all in Nbr of Appearances, or improved success when in the tourney and for sure have not seen a SIGNIFICANT boost promised to UD by changing conferences.

Given I missed X's miss last year, that means they've missed 2 times in 6 years in Big East and 1 time in the previous 12 years in the A10. The stats in no way support your argument.

Two logical questions to ask those that believe UD needs to be in a new conference:

1.) If UD can't win enough consistently in a league some claim is crap, how in the world will they win enough in a much tougher league to improve their NCAA appearance problem?

2.) If the league is crap and is holding us back not lack of performance, why has UD had so little NCAA success in a crap league that has averaged exactly 3 bids per year since 1985?

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[CT Flyer]

I stated in another thread i think the biggest reason we need a different league is because the P5/BE are going to continue to find ways to try to shut out the mid majors and make even harder to get NCAA bids. I hate to get shut out and before you know it it's going to be too late to do anything about it.

Plus just watched Providence beat Georgetown on the road and pick up a Q1 win over a terrible team. Somehow being in the BE has kept Gtown a Q1 game because it certainly isn't the quality of the team.

[Marysville Flyer]

Originally Posted by CT Flyer I stated in another thread i think the biggest reason we need a different league is because the P5/BE are going to continue to find ways to try to shut out the mid majors and make even harder to get NCAA bids. I hate to get shut out and before you know it it's going to be too late to do anything about it. Plus just watched Providence beat Georgetown on the road and pick up a Q1 win over a terrible team. Somehow being in the BE has kept Gtown a Q1 game because it certainly isn't the quality of the team.

I almost included this as a myth that’s been busted but it’s way too early. I remember 2 years ago the consensus seemed to be that the 18 game conference schedules, conference realignment, new NET metrics etc was going to do just what you state but here we are today and 3 of the top 5 in the nation are mid majors and UD is having greatest season in 60 years. Is the the calm before the storm or as the hype and fear of all this change overblown? I guess we’ll see in the next 5 years.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Canonball]

Originally Posted by CT Flyer I stated in another thread i think the biggest reason we need a different league is because the P5/BE are going to continue to find ways to try to shut out the mid majors and make even harder to get NCAA bids. I hate to get shut out and before you know it it's going to be too late to do anything about it. Plus just watched Providence beat Georgetown on the road and pick up a Q1 win over a terrible team. Somehow being in the BE has kept Gtown a Q1 game because it certainly isn't the quality of the team.

Watched as well. Neither team can shoot.

It gets worse. From ESPN's bubble watch. Evidently X's win over St John's is a Q1 as well.
'What is the exact opposite of style points? Give Xavier those. The Musketeers coughed the ball up 22 times in a 77-possession game against St. John's yet managed to escape Madison Square Garden with a 77-74 victory that, for the moment, qualifies as Quad 1. '

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[Jeff]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer Two logical questions to ask those that believe UD needs to be in a new conference: 1.) If UD can't win enough consistently in a league some claim is crap, how in the world will they win enough in a much tougher league to improve their NCAA appearance problem? 2.) If the league is crap and is holding us back not lack of performance, why has UD had so little NCAA success in a crap league that has averaged exactly 3 bids per year since 1985?

This is spot on. Any and all aspirations start with how UD performs.

[Jeff]

Originally Posted by Canonball Watched as well. Neither team can shoot. It gets worse. From ESPN's bubble watch. Evidently X's win over St John's is a Q1 as well. 'What is the exact opposite of style points? Give Xavier those. The Musketeers coughed the ball up 22 times in a 77-possession game against St. John's yet managed to escape Madison Square Garden with a 77-74 victory that, for the moment, qualifies as Quad 1. '

You could infer that X valued the money associated with a better chance of getting in the tournament being average vs. the reduced opportunity of being dominant in a lessor rated league.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer Helped them how - getting a flashy seed? X won 2 total games as a 1 and 2 seed so who cares about seeding if it doesn't lead to greater success.

Those 2 years were anomalies...perhaps Mack struggles as a favorite in the ncaat.

Statistically we are much better off with a much better seed. The numbers do not lie.

This year, would you really rather have an 11 seed instead of a 1 or 2 seed? Seriously?


https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-nation...pionship-odds/

1ST 2ND SWEET 16 ELITE 8 FINAL 4 FINAL WIN CHAMP TRUE ODDS

1 99.3% 85.3% 69.1% 41.2% 24.3% 15.4% 61.8%
2 94.1% 62.5% 45.6% 20.6% 9.6% 3.7% 14.7%
3 84.6% 51.5% 25.0% 11.8% 7.4% 2.9% 11.8%
4 79.4% 47.1% 15.4% 9.6% 2.2% 0.7% 2.9%
5 65.4% 33.8% 5.9% 4.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
6 63.2% 30.9% 10.3% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 2.9%
7 61.8% 19.9% 7.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 2.9%
8 50.0% 9.6% 5.9% 3.7% 2.2% 0.7% 2.9%
9 50.0% 5.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 38.2% 16.9% 5.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 36.8% 16.2% 5.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 34.6% 14.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 20.6% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 15.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 5.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

[SLUFLYER]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer Helped them how - getting a flashy seed? X won 2 total games as a 1 and 2 seed so who cares about seeding if it doesn't lead to greater success. In contrast, they won 5 games in 2 Big East seasons as a 6 and 11 so tell me again why the 1 seed and 2 seed means much improved? In the A10 X had 5 years in the prior 12 years where they had much higher seeds than 1 or 2 and they won as many games in EACH of those years as they did in the 1/2 seed 2 years COMBINED. Most crying for the big east imply or state that it will be a big step up in recruitment, ncaa opportunities and overall success. X clearly hasn't stepped up at all in Nbr of Appearances, or improved success when in the tourney and for sure have not seen a SIGNIFICANT boost promised to UD by changing conferences. Given I missed X's miss last year, that means they've missed 2 times in 6 years in Big East and 1 time in the previous 12 years in the A10. The stats in no way support your argument. Two logical questions to ask those that believe UD needs to be in a new conference: 1.) If UD can't win enough consistently in a league some claim is crap, how in the world will they win enough in a much tougher league to improve their NCAA appearance problem? 2.) If the league is crap and is holding us back not lack of performance, why has UD had so little NCAA success in a crap league that has averaged exactly 3 bids per year since 1985?

So basically, your argument, which is supported by Xavier's recent tourney results only, is that there's not a benefit to having a better seed (like the one and two that they've had recently)?

Please just type that "There's not any benefit to getting a one or two seed over a 6-seed or a 10-seed."

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[SLUFLYER]

Originally Posted by Canonball Watched as well. Neither team can shoot. It gets worse. From ESPN's bubble watch. Evidently X's win over St John's is a Q1 as well. 'What is the exact opposite of style points? Give Xavier those. The Musketeers coughed the ball up 22 times in a 77-possession game against St. John's yet managed to escape Madison Square Garden with a 77-74 victory that, for the moment, qualifies as Quad 1. '

Well, up until last week, our win at SLU was Q1. And until two weeks ago, our win at Duquesne was. Neither are today. You know why? Because they lost to the garbage bottom third of our conference. If you're in the BE, the garbage bottom third (this year just one team) doesn't kill you. Heck, the entire conference is in the Top 75 of the NET. That equates to EVERY road game being a Q1 game for the visiting team. It's insane.

Meanwhile, we (A10) have teams at NET 159, 167,168, 186, 228, 275.

But yeah, Xavier's not benefitting from being in the BE vs the A10.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer I almost included this as a myth that’s been busted but it’s way too early. I remember 2 years ago the consensus seemed to be that the 18 game conference schedules, conference realignment, new NET metrics etc was going to do just what you state but here we are today and 3 of the top 5 in the nation are mid majors and UD is having greatest season in 60 years. Is the the calm before the storm or as the hype and fear of all this change overblown? I guess we’ll see in the next 5 years. Posted via Mobile Device

But you cannot bust the myth that it is getting harder to get P5/BE schools on the schedule. 20 game conference schedules will make it even harder. If Rat Face had his way (mentioned by me in another thread) P5/BE schools would be able to get their three or four exempt games and do with them what they want instead of having to go to one of the exempt tourneys. It is very obvious they want to squeeze the mid majors out.

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by SLUFLYER Heck, the entire conference is in the Top 75 of the NET. That equates to EVERY road game being a Q1 game for the visiting team. It's insane.

And that is what is ridiculous because I've watched a handful of GTown games and they are not a good team. They would not be a top four team in the A10 this year.

[shwag33]

The fact is Xavier will be a tournament team in a down year for them. I'd bet the same team playing an A10 schedule, they're probably be on the wrong side of the bubble or at least on the bubble... similar to Richmond.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[SLUFLYER]

Originally Posted by CT Flyer And that is what is ridiculous because I've watched a handful of GTown games and they are not a good team. They would not be a top four team in the A10 this year.

Agree. But they do have some decent wins on their resume - neutral Texas, @OkSt, @SMU, @Butler, home Creighton. Tourney worthy? Probably not, but it's close at 9-11 vs Q1/Q2.

[SLUFLYER]

Originally Posted by shwag33 The fact is Xavier will be a tournament team in a down year for them. I'd bet the same team playing an A10 schedule, they're probably be on the wrong side of the bubble.

Probably, because on Xavier's "bad nights", they're still losing to UMass, St. Bonnie or George Mason instead of Marquette or Providence.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Massachusetts MASSACHUSETTS UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, sits on nearly 1,450-acres in the scenic Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts, 90 miles from Boston and 175 miles from New York City. The campus provides a rich cultural environment in a rural setting close to major urban centers. UMass enrolls over 20,000 undergraduates and 5,000 post-grad students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Minutemen. Women's teams known as the Minutewomen. Sports achievements include NCAA Final Four appearances in men's basketball and women's soccer.

[pmcmullen]

In my mind, the problem has never been that the A-10 lacks good teams. Our top 3-5 every year are legit. Instead, the problem is that we have a couple REALLY bad teams. Unfortunately, to a large degree, it's the same REALLY bad teams every year. When talking total conference strength, the average is dropped because of these teams.

I remember hearing an announcer in Hawaii say "Dayton isn't a mid major team. They are a major team in a mid-major conference." When you watch a game like Fordham v. La Salle, it's hard to argue that most years. It looks like a high school game, in a high school gym.

Also, it's few and far that an A-10 team or two really makes an impact in March/April. We, as a conference, need to find a way to stick a team in the Sweet 16 at a higher rate.

I've said it, and I know plenty others have as well. Don't worry about what conference you play in. Even in the A-10, if we place in the top 3 consistently, we'll Dance consistently. Then, do something once there. See Gonzaga's model.

	Fordham FORDHAM Fordham University is an independent Jesuit university established in 1841 as St. John's College on old Rose Hill Manor in the village of Fordham, then part of Westchester County in the Bronx, NY. The name Fordham is derived from the Anglo-Saxon words "ford" and "ham," meaning a wading place or ford by a settlement. Rose Hill is the name given to the site in 1787 by Robert Watts, a wealthy New York merchant, in honor of his family's ancestral home of the same name in Scotland. The College was originally staffed by diocesan clergy. The name was officially changed to Fordham University in 1907. Fordham's 10 schools enroll 14,448 students. There are 7,652 undergraduates, of whom 3,842 live in University-managed housing either on-campus or in the local community. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams. Athletic claim to fame is consistent mediocrity in nearly all sports and few A10 title winning programs.

	LaSalle LA SALLE In 1863, La Salle University was established through the legacy of St. John Baptist de La Salle and the Christian Brothers teaching order, which De La Salle founded 300 years ago. Located in Philadelphia, La Salle is an educational community shaped by traditional Catholic and Lasallian values. La Salle's main campus is an ideal place for students to pursue an education. The 130-acre park-like setting includes 54 buildings and is located approximately six miles from Center City Philadelphia. The University can accommodate 2,114 resident students in its 12 residence halls, two apartment complexes, and 75 townhouses. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Explorers. Notable athletes include Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.

[Canonball]

Originally Posted by CT Flyer And that is what is ridiculous because I've watched a handful of GTown games and they are not a good team. They would not be a top four team in the A10 this year.

Same. Georgetown and St John's are awful. IMO, for whatever reason the Big East is getting a ton of credit for the hot garbage in the lower half of their standings. Doesn't change that X will likely benefit from feasting on said hot garbage.

[Fudd]

Originally Posted by Canonball Same. Georgetown and St John's are awful. IMO, for whatever reason the Big East is getting a ton of credit for the hot garbage in the lower half of their standings. Doesn't change that X will likely benefit from feasting on said hot garbage.

The hot garbage at the bottom of the Big East is strange hot garbage. There are a lot of good players who were high recruits, but they are trapped in programs with terrible coaching and no consistency. They are dangerous when they have a good game, because they have size and talent. But they are terribly inconsistent. They are not like our Fordham hot garbage. Fordham is consistently and reliably garbage. The bottom of the Big east is a higher quality of garbage.

	Fordham FORDHAM Fordham University is an independent Jesuit university established in 1841 as St. John's College on old Rose Hill Manor in the village of Fordham, then part of Westchester County in the Bronx, NY. The name Fordham is derived from the Anglo-Saxon words "ford" and "ham," meaning a wading place or ford by a settlement. Rose Hill is the name given to the site in 1787 by Robert Watts, a wealthy New York merchant, in honor of his family's ancestral home of the same name in Scotland. The College was originally staffed by diocesan clergy. The name was officially changed to Fordham University in 1907. Fordham's 10 schools enroll 14,448 students. There are 7,652 undergraduates, of whom 3,842 live in University-managed housing either on-campus or in the local community. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams. Athletic claim to fame is consistent mediocrity in nearly all sports and few A10 title winning programs.

[shwag33]

I can't remember where I saw it, but someone in the Big 10 or ACC lost like 7 of 9 and increased their net ranking 20 positions.

[JimBo]

I watched some of the IU- Minnesota game last night and was surprised by how bad both teams looked. Indiana is supposed to be a bubble team but struggled against a Minnesota team that looked like they had just started practicing together a week ago. I've watched so many supposed tournament worthy teams this season that are as mediocre as you can get. Forget about tournament expansion, it needs to be shrunken down in size.

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by Canonball Same. Georgetown and St John's are awful. IMO, for whatever reason the Big East is getting a ton of credit for the hot garbage in the lower half of their standings. Doesn't change that X will likely benefit from feasting on said hot garbage.

When Providence played GTown the first time in Providence early in the season I actually commented to my friend is this a buy game or a conference game?

[Marysville Flyer]

Originally Posted by SLUFLYER Well, up until last week, our win at SLU was Q1. And until two weeks ago, our win at Duquesne was. Neither are today. You know why? Because they lost to the garbage bottom third of our conference. If you're in the BE, the garbage bottom third (this year just one team) doesn't kill you. Heck, the entire conference is in the Top 75 of the NET. That equates to EVERY road game being a Q1 game for the visiting team. It's insane. Meanwhile, we (A10) have teams at NET 159, 167,168, 186, 228, 275. But yeah, Xavier's not benefitting from being in the BE vs the A10.

Benefiting in perception is much different then benefiting in results. You are arguing against yourself.

On one hand, they get help from the entire league's NET but have still missed 2 tourneys since joining. They have only won more than 1 game 1 time. Is that success?

Unfortunately that kind of benefiting gets you in when maybe you shouldn't be and/or a better seed than you deserve. We've all gripped about that for years when UD wsa left out while a 14 loss Syracuse team that went 6-10 in conference got in.

If you expect others to help you get in then yes of course their net is helped by the league.
Last I looked we were projected to be a 2 seed with NET of 159, 167, 186, 228, 275 because have relied on ourselves not North Texas, Drake, Fordham or UMass to earn our way in to the Tourney.

To me benefiting means I do better in the ultimate goal - the Dance - than I had previously in the A10 / Horizon and clearly, neither X or Butler have to date.

	Massachusetts MASSACHUSETTS UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, sits on nearly 1,450-acres in the scenic Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts, 90 miles from Boston and 175 miles from New York City. The campus provides a rich cultural environment in a rural setting close to major urban centers. UMass enrolls over 20,000 undergraduates and 5,000 post-grad students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Minutemen. Women's teams known as the Minutewomen. Sports achievements include NCAA Final Four appearances in men's basketball and women's soccer.

	Fordham FORDHAM Fordham University is an independent Jesuit university established in 1841 as St. John's College on old Rose Hill Manor in the village of Fordham, then part of Westchester County in the Bronx, NY. The name Fordham is derived from the Anglo-Saxon words "ford" and "ham," meaning a wading place or ford by a settlement. Rose Hill is the name given to the site in 1787 by Robert Watts, a wealthy New York merchant, in honor of his family's ancestral home of the same name in Scotland. The College was originally staffed by diocesan clergy. The name was officially changed to Fordham University in 1907. Fordham's 10 schools enroll 14,448 students. There are 7,652 undergraduates, of whom 3,842 live in University-managed housing either on-campus or in the local community. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Rams. Athletic claim to fame is consistent mediocrity in nearly all sports and few A10 title winning programs.

	Duquesne DUQUESNE Duquesne University is a private, coeducational university, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania located on 48 secluded acres, on a bluff above downtown. Founded in 1878 as a Catholic college by the Order of the Holy Spirit. It is the only Spiritan institution of higher education in the world. Duquesne offers 10 schools of study and 100 degree programs to 6,000 undergraduates and 3,800 graduate students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Dukes.

	Saint Louis SAINT LOUIS Saint Louis University is a Jesuit, Catholic university ranked among the top research institutions in the nation. The University fosters the intellectual and character development of more than 12,700 students. Founded in 1818, it is the oldest university west of the Mississippi and the second oldest Jesuit university in the United States. Located in St. Louis, MO, and just five minutes from the Gateway Arch, SLU offers 85 undergraduate programs and over 50 graduate study tracks. Over 99% of the SLU faculty hold the highest degree in their respective fields. Fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Billikens, but also commonly known as "Sloo", the phonetic pronunciation of the school's initials. Athletic claims to fame include multiple national titles in men's soccer and men's basketball star Larry Hughes.

[Marysville Flyer]

Originally Posted by SLUFLYER So basically, your argument, which is supported by Xavier's recent tourney results only, is that there's not a benefit to having a better seed (like the one and two that they've had recently)? Please just type that "There's not any benefit to getting a one or two seed over a 6-seed or a 10-seed."

No, I am arguing that X's and Butler's results have digressed rather than the large leap upward promised since joining the BE.

I could easily support that for schools like UD, a higher seed does not limit or determine Dance success - in fact the numbers support just the opposite. Our 2 elite 8s came as an 11. VCU and GMU were in final 4 as 11s I believe. Not sure about Butler, WSU, or Loyola because this isn't the issue.

I'm also not arguing that for Duke, KU, UK or any other prominent P5 teams either as for them to be above an 8 means they probably shouldn't even be in the tourney most years so of course their results are bad.

Compare like to like if you want to measure and use results to drive rational conclusions.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[sheg]

The only myth is that things are as black and white as the original post suggests.

Conference affiliation? It's complicated. There are arguments for staying put. But if the Big East offered, Dayton would beat them into the pot with a yes.

Not black and white.

The schedule has not been what has held UD back for many of the last twenty years. Their own performance has done that. But that's not to say the schedule couldn't be better or provide an additional road opportunity. But at the expense of revenue? Where do you draw the line?

Not black and white.

I was on board with AG the day he got hired and always felt his tenure at Alabama was somewhat unlucky. So I can't really defend the anti-AG people here.

A10 refs? Well, we know that's not a thing. But as for the refs we've watched, they've mostly been just fine, and pretty balanced. There have been a few shaky calls, no doubt.

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by ud2 Those 2 years were anomalies...perhaps Mack struggles as a favorite in the ncaat. Statistically we are much better off with a much better seed. The numbers do not lie. This year, would you really rather have an 11 seed instead of a 1 or 2 seed? Seriously? https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-nation...pionship-odds/ 1ST 2ND SWEET 16 ELITE 8 FINAL 4 FINAL WIN CHAMP TRUE ODDS 1 99.3% 85.3% 69.1% 41.2% 24.3% 15.4% 61.8% 2 94.1% 62.5% 45.6% 20.6% 9.6% 3.7% 14.7% 3 84.6% 51.5% 25.0% 11.8% 7.4% 2.9% 11.8% 4 79.4% 47.1% 15.4% 9.6% 2.2% 0.7% 2.9% 5 65.4% 33.8% 5.9% 4.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6 63.2% 30.9% 10.3% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 2.9% 7 61.8% 19.9% 7.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 2.9% 8 50.0% 9.6% 5.9% 3.7% 2.2% 0.7% 2.9% 9 50.0% 5.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10 38.2% 16.9% 5.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11 36.8% 16.2% 5.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12 34.6% 14.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13 20.6% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14 15.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15 5.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Unless you've figured out the chicken or the egg question, that proves nothing. Do number one seeds win the tournament more often because they are #1 seeds and have an easier path, of do they become #1 seeds because they are an elite team with the talent and play to win the tournament? I'd say it has more to do with the latter than the former.

[KYFlyer]

Originally Posted by Marysville Flyer ....here we are today and 3 of the top 5 in the nation are mid majors and UD is having greatest season in 60 years. Posted via Mobile Device

I am guessing that similar comments were made by administration when they turned down being a part of the original Big East to stay an independent.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by Smitty10 Unless you've figured out the chicken or the egg question, that proves nothing. Do number one seeds win the tournament more often because they are #1 seeds and have an easier path, of do they become #1 seeds because they are an elite team with the talent and play to win the tournament? I'd say it has more to do with the latter than the former.

Oh, ok. That proves nothing. Sure, if you say so.

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by ud2 Oh, ok. That proves nothing. Sure, if you say so.

Seriously? You think it has more to do with the easiest path than the fact that the better teams are seeded #1? Look, when the brackets come out, the committee has 4 shots of putting the best basketball team in the country as a #1 seed. They are going to accomplish that more than not. And those #1 seeds that won it all, are you saying most wouldn't have if they were mis-seeded as a 2 or 3?

Let me do the eyeroll as it's much more appropriate.

[Fudd]

I've always said this about the Big East.

They have good quality through all 12(?) teams now. Half of the teams lose on every night of league play. Therefore, some of those teams are going to start losing a lot. Losing a lot over a period of a decade is going to change the perceptions of the program.

It's going to settle over time. It will still be a really good league, but there will be long-term winners and losers.

In my opinion, it is still an attractive league for UD, but it has it's risks, and the risks are significant.

[CT Flyer]

Originally Posted by Fudd I've always said this about the Big East. They have good quality through all 12(?) teams now.

10 teams currently and going to 11 next year with UConn.

[Jeff]

Originally Posted by ud2 Those 2 years were anomalies...perhaps Mack struggles as a favorite in the ncaat. Statistically we are much better off with a much better seed. The numbers do not lie. This year, would you really rather have an 11 seed instead of a 1 or 2 seed? Seriously? https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-nation...pionship-odds/ 1ST 2ND SWEET 16 ELITE 8 FINAL 4 FINAL WIN CHAMP TRUE ODDS 1 99.3% 85.3% 69.1% 41.2% 24.3% 15.4% 61.8% 2 94.1% 62.5% 45.6% 20.6% 9.6% 3.7% 14.7% 3 84.6% 51.5% 25.0% 11.8% 7.4% 2.9% 11.8% 4 79.4% 47.1% 15.4% 9.6% 2.2% 0.7% 2.9% 5 65.4% 33.8% 5.9% 4.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6 63.2% 30.9% 10.3% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 2.9% 7 61.8% 19.9% 7.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 2.9% 8 50.0% 9.6% 5.9% 3.7% 2.2% 0.7% 2.9% 9 50.0% 5.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10 38.2% 16.9% 5.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11 36.8% 16.2% 5.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12 34.6% 14.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13 20.6% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14 15.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15 5.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

This data supports a 32 team field. Let’s just lop it off there.

[ud2]

Originally Posted by Smitty10 Seriously? You think it has more to do with the easiest path than the fact that the better teams are seeded #1? Look, when the brackets come out, the committee has 4 shots of putting the best basketball team in the country as a #1 seed. They are going to accomplish that more than not. And those #1 seeds that won it all, are you saying most wouldn't have if they were mis-seeded as a 2 or 3? Let me do the eyeroll as it's much more appropriate.

They are both right: the 1's have an easier path but are also good teams. For you to say that graph proves nothing makes no sense, all I was saying is that the graph shows that you are better off with a better seed, simple as that.

[CraSch]

Yes, you can have big years in the A10. But being in a league like the Big East has advatanges. As mentioned, "crappy" teams still rated high in NET. What I don't remember seeing mentioned (though I could have missed) is recruiting. I couldn't see it today, but Verbal Commits used to list average stars of players per team and per conference. Last time I saw this, which was recently, the highest rated team by average player stars in the A10 was LOWER than the Big East average. Simple fact, "better" leagues let teams recruit "better" players. UD is somewhat flukish in that they've had 2 stars outplay higher stars (Obi right now, Brian Roberts in the past are 2 examples), but in the big picture, higher rated players out of high school are going to be better players in college. Obi is a rare late blooming (and late growing) exception to the rule. Obviously things like coaching, scheme, etc, can effect overall team performance. But I'd rather have 4 4-5 stars then no 4-5 stars as a beginning base for my team and then hope we have a coach good enough to bring out there best. So conference DOES matter in terms of recruiting

[Smitty10]

Originally Posted by CraSch Yes, you can have big years in the A10. But being in a league like the Big East has advatanges. As mentioned, "crappy" teams still rated high in NET. What I don't remember seeing mentioned (though I could have missed) is recruiting. I couldn't see it today, but Verbal Commits used to list average stars of players per team and per conference. Last time I saw this, which was recently, the highest rated team by average player stars in the A10 was LOWER than the Big East average. Simple fact, "better" leagues let teams recruit "better" players. UD is somewhat flukish in that they've had 2 stars outplay higher stars (Obi right now, Brian Roberts in the past are 2 examples), but in the big picture, higher rated players out of high school are going to be better players in college. Obi is a rare late blooming (and late growing) exception to the rule. Obviously things like coaching, scheme, etc, can effect overall team performance. But I'd rather have 4 4-5 stars then no 4-5 stars as a beginning base for my team and then hope we have a coach good enough to bring out there best. So conference DOES matter in terms of recruiting

Let me start by saying yes, I rather be in the Big East.

However, the scary part is those things that are the great equalizer, having 4 year players that turn into great leaders and stars in their 4th year will be less available. Wouldn't expect anymore DMO's or Treys or Ryans as we'll be recruiting above them for players who will probably leave much earlier. We will be fighting for one and done or two and dones and might become a Depaul or worse in the pecking order doing that.

With that said, I'm willing to take the chance.

[longtimefan]

Originally Posted by ud2 For you to say that graph proves nothing makes no sense, all I was saying is that the graph shows that you are better off with a better seed, simple as that.

In general I would agree, but UD's results seem to show it may be as much about matchups. UD went to the Elite Eight as a 10 seed in 1984, won a game as a 12 seed in 1990, won a game as an 11 seed in 2009, went to the Elite Eight as an 11 seed in 2014, and won two games as an 11 seed in 2015. They lost as a 4 seed in 2003, and lost as a 7 seed in 2016 and 2017. Of course I would rather have a better seed, but matchups may be just as important.