UDPride Discussion Forums    
     

Go Back   UDPride Discussion Forums > UDPRIDE SPORTS FORUMS > Mens Basketball

» Log in
User Name:

Password:

Not a member yet?
Register Now!
» Advertisement
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 03-12-2017, 02:31 PM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,101
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
ruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond repute
Why NCAA Draw Matters So Much

The difference among potential 8/9 seeds is dramatic. Wichita State is #8 overall in the country (according to kenpom) whereas Seton Hall is #53. Dayton #37 would be supposed to lose by about 8 versus Wichita State with a 15% chance to win; whereas Dayton probably would be supposed to win by about 2 with a 65% chance to win versus Seton Hall.

In Dayton's 2014 Elite 8 run, beat #19 Ohio State (under-seeded), #18 Syracuse (over-seeded), #34 Stanford (under-seeded), and lost to #3 FL (correctly seeded). Dayton did not beat a top 16 team on its way to the Elite 8!

In Dayton's 2015 Round of 32 run, beat #47 Boise State, beat #27 Providence, and lost to #11 Oklahoma. Dayton did not beat a top 25 team on it way to the Round of 32!

In Dayton's 2016 NCAA, lost to #27 Syracuse.

So the last 3 years 5-3 record the difference between playing top and average teams is dramatic. Dayton is 2-2 versus top 25 teams and 3-1 versus teams 26-50. Breaking-down the top 25 wins/losses, Dayton is 2-0 versus teams 16-25 (Ohio State and Syracuse 2014) and 0-2 versus top 15 teams (Oklahoma 2015 and FL 2014).

Draw and Match-ups matter so much in the NCAA.

Let's hope Dayton does not Wichita State, equivalent of playing a 2 seed in the first round!?!?!?!?

To get to the Sweet 16 this year, Dayton likely will have to beat a top 10 team (and hopefully not 2 in a row if matched-up with Wichita State).

*All numbers according to kenpom.
Reply With Quote
6 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to ruechalgrin For This Totally Excellent Post:
ClevelandFlyer05 (03-12-2017), Flyer14 (03-12-2017), FLYER5 (03-12-2017), MikeF (03-12-2017), SeasonTicketFan (03-12-2017), UDEE79 (03-12-2017)
Advertisement
  #2  
Old 03-12-2017, 03:15 PM
ClevelandFlyer05's Avatar
ClevelandFlyer05 ClevelandFlyer05 is offline
Colonel
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Ohio
Posts: 1,717
Thanks: 748
Thanked 462 Times in 286 Posts
ClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant futureClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant futureClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant futureClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant futureClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant futureClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant futureClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant futureClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant futureClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant futureClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant futureClevelandFlyer05 has a brilliant future
A first-round matchup with Seton Hall would be fantastic.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to ClevelandFlyer05 For This Totally Excellent Post:
CT Flyer (03-12-2017)
  #3  
Old 03-12-2017, 06:39 PM
Smitty10's Avatar
Smitty10 Smitty10 is offline
General
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,642
Thanks: 1,559
Thanked 4,578 Times in 2,405 Posts
Smitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
The difference among potential 8/9 seeds is dramatic. Wichita State is #8 overall in the country (according to kenpom) whereas Seton Hall is #53. Dayton #37 would be supposed to lose by about 8 versus Wichita State with a 15% chance to win; whereas Dayton probably would be supposed to win by about 2 with a 65% chance to win versus Seton Hall.
LOL. So we avoid the 8 seed only to have Wichita lowered to an 10. Are they that good ruechalgrin or could kenpom have it wrong this time?

Last edited by Smitty10; 03-12-2017 at 06:46 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 03-12-2017, 06:43 PM
FlyerGuyer FlyerGuyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,833
Thanks: 786
Thanked 1,262 Times in 666 Posts
FlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond repute
This will be a good test for Ken Pom. If Wichita State goes on a tear and rips up Dayton and then Kentucky, his credibility rises in my mind.

But his stuff still gives me a major headache though.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to FlyerGuyer For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (03-12-2017)
  #5  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:06 PM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,101
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
ruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond repute
Dayton got the most difficult draw to reach the Sweet 16. It would have been better to be be a 16 seed.

Dayton must beat #8 Wichita State and then #4 Kentucky so beat a total of 12 to get to Sweet 16. Even a 16 seed would versus Villanova would get #1 Villanova and then a #28 so 29 total.

Travesty. Witchita State is really good. Dayton has a chance, but wow!

Dayton 25% to win and supposed to lose 77-70 according to kenpom.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:14 PM
Smitty10's Avatar
Smitty10 Smitty10 is offline
General
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,642
Thanks: 1,559
Thanked 4,578 Times in 2,405 Posts
Smitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dayton got the most difficult draw to reach the Sweet 16. It would have been better to be be a 16 seed.

Dayton must beat #8 Wichita State and then #4 Kentucky so beat a total of 12 to get to Sweet 16. Even a 16 seed would versus Villanova would get #1 Villanova and then a #28 so 29 total.

Travesty. Witchita State is really good. Dayton has a chance, but wow!

Dayton 25% to win and supposed to lose 77-70 according to kenpom.
Rue, have you ever seen how a full bracket by kenpom would work out? Would they normally be exceptional picking them right to the finals, or at least the first 2 to 4 rounds?
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:17 PM
Bill McPeek's Avatar
Bill McPeek Bill McPeek is offline
Lieutenant General
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Vernon, NJ
Posts: 4,660
Thanks: 1,880
Thanked 1,182 Times in 579 Posts
Bill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond reputeBill McPeek has a reputation beyond repute
Let's take one game at a time. Indy will be UD West, you know it and so do I. At this point we are not going to get the Little Sisters of the Poor as an opponent. I hope our Flyers are totally ****ed off and ready to play on Friday. Somehow I think they will be!
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Bill McPeek For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (03-12-2017)
  #8  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:23 PM
UD90's Avatar
UD90 UD90 is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 2,072
Thanks: 689
Thanked 1,461 Times in 612 Posts
UD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond repute
I am a big Kenpom fan, but where it breaks down is when you play in a conference when every team you play (other than Illinois State) has an rpi of 145 or higher.

That would be the equivalent of playing the bottom of our conference LaSalle through Duquesne along with Rhode Island in our conference where Rhode Island represents Illinois State. Our efficiency numbers would likely increase as well.

They are good and well coached, but being a 7 point underdog is just what this team needs to get their edge back.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:25 PM
Smitty10's Avatar
Smitty10 Smitty10 is offline
General
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,642
Thanks: 1,559
Thanked 4,578 Times in 2,405 Posts
Smitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond repute
We need to win the first one and it's clear sailing to the sweet 16, after all we're 4 for 4 in our last 4 games against Kentucky's big two teams and haven't lost to either in this century.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Smitty10 For This Totally Excellent Post:
ruechalgrin (03-12-2017)
  #10  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:26 PM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,101
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
ruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Rue, have you ever seen how a full bracket by kenpom would work out? Would they normally be exceptional picking them right to the finals, or at least the first 2 to 4 rounds?
Great question, I have not.

But #40 Xavier has to beat #45 Maryland and then #19 FLA St. to get to Sweet 16.

Dayton has to beat #8 Wichita State and then #4 Kentucky.

Rather have been an 11 where Xavier is. This is disgusting.

Dayton's top 25 kenpom wins since 2002, 13 wins (may have missed some). 7 Home Wins, 5 Neutral, and 1 Away.

Dayton HAS BEATEN 1 TOP 10 KENPOM TEAM IN THE 15 YEARS SINCE KENPOM HAS EXISTED.

2003 = #15 Marquette Home
2003 = #17 St. Joe's Home
2007 = #20 Louisville Neutral
2008 = #8 Louisville Away
2008 = #22 Pittsburgh Home
2009 = #21 Marquette Home
2009 = #20 Xavier Home
2009 = #11 West Virginia Neutral
2010 = #18 Xavier Home
2012 = #12 St. Louis Home
2014 = #20 Gonzaga Neutral
2014 = #19 Ohio State Neutral
2014 = #18 Syracuse Neutral
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:27 PM
Jeff Jeff is offline
General
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,740
Thanks: 2,603
Thanked 2,337 Times in 1,410 Posts
Jeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dayton got the most difficult draw to reach the Sweet 16. It would have been better to be be a 16 seed.
Keep reaching the sweet 16, then we have room to complain.

"We deserve to be in the tournament."
"We want a favorable seed."

First, we need to sustain the momentum of the past 3-4 years.

Right now, take care of business against WS. Then move on.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Jeff For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (03-12-2017)
  #12  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:32 PM
Chris R's Avatar
Chris R Chris R is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dayton, OH
Posts: 13,586
Thanks: 1,837
Thanked 17,099 Times in 5,101 Posts
Chris R has a reputation beyond reputeChris R has a reputation beyond reputeChris R has a reputation beyond reputeChris R has a reputation beyond reputeChris R has a reputation beyond reputeChris R has a reputation beyond reputeChris R has a reputation beyond reputeChris R has a reputation beyond reputeChris R has a reputation beyond reputeChris R has a reputation beyond reputeChris R has a reputation beyond repute
If UD plays no defense for a third game in a row and rebounds like a brownie troop, we'll be one-and-done no matter who we play. Its all about us and what we do -- or dont do. Right now, we are playing with no toughness, passion, and urgency. GW and Davidson stole our manhood in the first 10-15 minutes of the game. I dare the Flyers to try that recipe against Wichita b/c it will be a sizeable beatdown.

We got to get our heads out of our butt between now and Friday. Who we play is almost irrelevant at this point. We're simply not good enough to beat anybody by just rolling the ball on the court. We have sizable deficiencies. Only when we sell out completely and give a herculean effort do we look and play our best.

Its up to the players. Nobody can do it for them. They will get exactly what they deserve out of this year's NCAA tournament. Just like last season's tourney and the prior ones.
__________________

Hot shooting hides a multitude of sins.
Make everyone else's "one day" your "day one".
Reply With Quote
8 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Chris R For This Totally Excellent Post:
AC91 (03-12-2017), Cardsflyer (03-13-2017), Cityengr (03-12-2017), flyerfanatic86 (03-13-2017), flyrsmedic (03-13-2017), Jeff (03-12-2017), TMPH66 (03-12-2017), UD90 (03-12-2017)
  #13  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:33 PM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,101
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
ruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I am a big Kenpom fan, but where it breaks down is when you play in a conference when every team you play (other than Illinois State) has an rpi of 145 or higher.

That would be the equivalent of playing the bottom of our conference LaSalle through Duquesne along with Rhode Island in our conference where Rhode Island represents Illinois State. Our efficiency numbers would likely increase as well.

They are good and well coached, but being a 7 point underdog is just what this team needs to get their edge back.
Kenpom adjusts for opponents you are playing. Anyway, tough draw ...
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:35 PM
Jeff Jeff is offline
General
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,740
Thanks: 2,603
Thanked 2,337 Times in 1,410 Posts
Jeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond reputeJeff has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
If UD plays no defense for a third game in a row and rebounds like a brownie troop, we'll be one-and-done no matter who we play. Its all about us and what we do -- or dont do. Right now, we are playing with no toughness, passion, and urgency. GW and Davidson stole our manhood in the first 10-15 minutes of the game. I dare the Flyers to try that recipe against Wichita b/c it will be a sizeable beatdown.

We got to get our heads out of our butt between now and Friday. Who we play is almost irrelevant at this point. We're simply not good enough to beat anybody by just rolling the ball on the court. We have sizable deficiencies. Only when we sell out completely and give a herculean effort do we look and play our best.

Its up to the players. Nobody can do it for them. They will get exactly what they deserve out of this year's NCAA tournament. Just like last season's tourney and the prior ones.
Exactly. The talent is there.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:39 PM
Wallage Wallage is offline
1st Lieutenant
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 159
Thanks: 265
Thanked 110 Times in 57 Posts
Wallage has a brilliant futureWallage has a brilliant futureWallage has a brilliant futureWallage has a brilliant futureWallage has a brilliant futureWallage has a brilliant futureWallage has a brilliant futureWallage has a brilliant futureWallage has a brilliant futureWallage has a brilliant futureWallage has a brilliant future
Archie said this team plays best when their backs are up against the wall. I think this draw definitely puts their backs up against the wall...
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:39 PM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,101
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
ruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond repute
Would you rather be 11 seed Xavier (#40 kenpom) playing #45 Maryland then #19 Florida State or the 7 seed Dayton (#37 kenpom) playing #8 Wichita State then #4 Kentucky?

Dayton will play well Friday, but tough road ...

BTW, Wichita State got screwed, even CBS saying it.

Last edited by ruechalgrin; 03-12-2017 at 07:41 PM..
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to ruechalgrin For This Totally Excellent Post:
SeasonTicketFan (03-12-2017)
  #17  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:44 PM
CE80 CE80 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
CE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond repute
Would we all feel better if WSU was the 7 seed and we were the 10?
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
mikeymo85 (03-13-2017)
  #18  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:51 PM
Smitty10's Avatar
Smitty10 Smitty10 is offline
General
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,642
Thanks: 1,559
Thanked 4,578 Times in 2,405 Posts
Smitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Would we all feel better if WSU was the 7 seed and we were the 10?
You know, that's interesting. I feel we were overseeded and they were underseeded. What if we got them where they were an 8 and we were a 9? I think we'd all be saying "Well, we made our own bed by losing those last two games so let's sleep in it". I think both us and them would be more accepting of it even though then we would be playing a one seed in the second round.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Smitty10 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (03-12-2017)
  #19  
Old 03-12-2017, 07:59 PM
FlyerGuyer FlyerGuyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,833
Thanks: 786
Thanked 1,262 Times in 666 Posts
FlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
You know, that's interesting. I feel we were overseeded and they were underseeded.

How so? Our resume is much better than theirs. We have 6 wins over NCAA tournament teams, they have none.

Wich State may prove to be the better team, but Dayton's resume is better, and it's not even close. The seeding is correct. In fact, the argument could be made that Wich State is overseeded.
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to FlyerGuyer For This Totally Excellent Post:
CT Flyer (03-12-2017), Flyer 86 (03-12-2017)
  #20  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:08 PM
CE80 CE80 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
CE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond repute
We wouldn't have a problem with WSU's seed if they were playing one of the other 7s.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Smitty10 (03-12-2017)
  #21  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:08 PM
jack72's Avatar
jack72 jack72 is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Bluffton, SC
Posts: 22,162
Thanks: 17,552
Thanked 10,134 Times in 5,868 Posts
jack72 has a reputation beyond reputejack72 has a reputation beyond reputejack72 has a reputation beyond reputejack72 has a reputation beyond reputejack72 has a reputation beyond reputejack72 has a reputation beyond reputejack72 has a reputation beyond reputejack72 has a reputation beyond reputejack72 has a reputation beyond reputejack72 has a reputation beyond reputejack72 has a reputation beyond repute
A couple weeks ago many people wrote WSU played a bad schedule and would be left out. Now draw them and it is a tough draw. That is a very winnable game. Great that are Flyers exceeded most expectations with a 7 seed. Good respect from the committee.
Posted via Mobile Device
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to jack72 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (03-12-2017)
  #22  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:24 PM
priceg75's Avatar
priceg75 priceg75 is offline
Major General
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Miami Twp.
Posts: 3,342
Thanks: 268
Thanked 2,234 Times in 1,038 Posts
priceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Kenpom adjusts for opponents you are playing. Anyway, tough draw ...
Not enough. Them being ranked #8 nationally is a joke. I'm not saying they won't beat us. But beating up on the bottom half of Division I shouldn't be the basis of a top 10 ranking.

They have zero wins over tournament teams and only played 3 of them, including a 17 point loss at home to Oklahoma State who is a 10 seed in the tournament.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:31 PM
The Fly's Avatar
The Fly The Fly is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,715
Thanks: 2,210
Thanked 2,378 Times in 810 Posts
The Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond repute
Here's one thing to like about this draw: Wichita is more than 600 miles from Indy; Dayton is only about 100 away; Lexington is 150-plus. All three fan bases travel extremely well, but Wichita at more than twice the distance might see some impact on support. Couple that with Kentucky fans likely rooting for Dayton (probably see us as the easier second-round draw) and we can create an environment similar to Columbus in 2015. That was as close to a home-game feel as you'll ever get short of a First Four game.

Last edited by The Fly; 03-12-2017 at 08:49 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:35 PM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,101
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
ruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
Here's one thing to like about this draw: Wichita is more than 600 miles from Indy; Dayton is only about 100 away; Lexington is 300-plus. All three fan bases travel extremely well, but Wichita at more than twice the distance might see some impact on support. Couple that with Kentucky fans likely rooting for Dayton (probably see us as the easier second-round draw) and we can create an environment similar to Columbus in 2015. That was as close to a home-game feel as you'll ever get short of a First Four game.
Agree!

Kenpom.com has 25% chance to win; fivethirtyeight.com has 31% chance to win because Dayton closer to Indy than Wichita to Indy. I think crowd if LOWD gives more of advantage so think really 35%-40% to win the game as likely will be semi-home. I respect the hell out of Wichita State and going to be tough.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s-predictions/
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:41 PM
CT Flyer CT Flyer is offline
Lieutenant General
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 4,033
Thanks: 5,564
Thanked 2,316 Times in 1,328 Posts
CT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
Here's one thing to like about this draw: Wichita is more than 600 miles from Indy; Dayton is only about 100 away; Lexington is 300-plus. All three fan bases travel extremely well, but Wichita at more than twice the distance might see some impact on support. Couple that with Kentucky fans likely rooting for Dayton (probably see us as the easier second-round draw) and we can create an environment similar to Columbus in 2015. That was as close to a home-game feel as you'll ever get short of a First Four game.
I wouldn't underestimate how WSU travels though. Last year they were in Providence, and I was there, and they had the best following of the 8 schools and that included Duke.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to CT Flyer For This Totally Excellent Post:
ruechalgrin (03-12-2017)
  #26  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:45 PM
Smitty10's Avatar
Smitty10 Smitty10 is offline
General
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,642
Thanks: 1,559
Thanked 4,578 Times in 2,405 Posts
Smitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond reputeSmitty10 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
Here's one thing to like about this draw: Wichita is more than 600 miles from Indy; Dayton is only about 100 away; Lexington is 300-plus. All three fan bases travel extremely well, but Wichita at more than twice the distance might see some impact on support. Couple that with Kentucky fans likely rooting for Dayton (probably see us as the easier second-round draw) and we can create an environment similar to Columbus in 2015. That was as close to a home-game feel as you'll ever get short of a First Four game.
Lexington is only 190 miles from Indy.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Smitty10 For This Totally Excellent Post:
The Fly (03-12-2017)
  #27  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:49 PM
UD90's Avatar
UD90 UD90 is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 2,072
Thanks: 689
Thanked 1,461 Times in 612 Posts
UD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond repute
Scoochie Kendall and Kyle...

have won 5 NCAA tournament games, been to the Elite 8. They've been to Memphis. They want to go back. They play better when it matters. As long as we don't make the defensive mistakes they've made the last two games when apparently they were satisfied with the A10 regular season title - they won't lose. New season - Home game.

Last year was an anomaly. Kendall wasn't 100% against Syracuse. I am glad we are the underdog. They will come out firing. Indy will be like it was in Columbus for Providence. I can still remember Cooley whining about it.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to UD90 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (03-12-2017)
  #28  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:50 PM
The Fly's Avatar
The Fly The Fly is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Posts: 1,715
Thanks: 2,210
Thanked 2,378 Times in 810 Posts
The Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond reputeThe Fly has a reputation beyond repute
You're right. Fixed above.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:51 PM
SeasonTicketFan's Avatar
SeasonTicketFan SeasonTicketFan is online now
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Beavercreek
Posts: 3,942
Thanks: 4,069
Thanked 4,285 Times in 1,756 Posts
SeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond reputeSeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond reputeSeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond reputeSeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond reputeSeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond reputeSeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond reputeSeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond reputeSeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond reputeSeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond reputeSeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond reputeSeasonTicketFan has a reputation beyond repute
ESPN interviewing committee member. He said Witchita State was their toughest seed decision. Lack of top wins hurt them. Also said seeds moved very little during weekend. I interpret that to mean UD was at 7 before Davidson loss.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to SeasonTicketFan For This Totally Excellent Post:
ruechalgrin (03-12-2017)
  #30  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:53 PM
CE80 CE80 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
CE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond repute
So the committee knew it was probably going to screw somebody so who can we do that to? UD and UK.
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:58 PM
dUDe dUDe is offline
1st Lieutenant
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Preble Yell
Posts: 200
Thanks: 18
Thanked 69 Times in 23 Posts
dUDe will become famous soon enoughdUDe will become famous soon enough
Reminds me of when we got a 4 seed because they didn't want to send Norte Dame to Spokane. Tulsa was too low...we were too high.

I can't wait to beat Kentucky again though.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to dUDe For This Totally Excellent Post:
UDBaby (03-13-2017)
  #32  
Old 03-12-2017, 09:35 PM
UD90's Avatar
UD90 UD90 is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 2,072
Thanks: 689
Thanked 1,461 Times in 612 Posts
UD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond reputeUD90 has a reputation beyond repute
How can you not love this opportunity?

* Kentucky, Louisville, Northern Kentucky, Michigan fans all in Indy with us. Oklahoma State and Witchita State are the visitors.
* St. Patty's Day
* 7:10 pm tip off
* This team plays it's best against ranked teams.

We get the chance to play a 20/22 ranked team rewarded with an opportunity to play #8. I was in Flanagan's Pub watching the game with a friend and the late Pat Flanagan when Dayton last played Kentucky and knocked them off at US Bank Arena. This team has done its most damage as an 11 seed in the tourney. I see this as less of a variance than us being an 11 and them being a 6 seed.

Make it through this weekend and take over Memphis again. Looking at the other side Cincinnati could be an Elite 8 match up.

I am so jacked up about this match up. I rather have Xavier in their spot, but I will take this opportunity and hope we advance to keep our SEC wins track record going.

Like Chris R said - It's all about the team. They control their own destiny.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to UD90 For This Totally Excellent Post:
ruechalgrin (03-12-2017)
  #33  
Old 03-12-2017, 09:39 PM
TA111 TA111 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 8,072
Thanks: 3,440
Thanked 4,693 Times in 2,511 Posts
TA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond reputeTA111 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Not enough. Them being ranked #8 nationally is a joke. I'm not saying they won't beat us. But beating up on the bottom half of Division I shouldn't be the basis of a top 10 ranking.

They have zero wins over tournament teams and only played 3 of them, including a 17 point loss at home to Oklahoma State who is a 10 seed in the tournament.
Their best win is against Illinois St. they haven't beaten anyone nearly as good as VCU or Rhode Island. I don't think they are battle tested.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to TA111 For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (03-12-2017)
  #34  
Old 03-12-2017, 10:02 PM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,101
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
ruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond repute
Love the Greg Marshall quotes.

“They’ve got to get rid of as many non-power five (conference) teams as possible,” WSU coach Gregg Marshall said. “They pit us against Dayton. They had VCU against St. Mary’s. I’m just glad we’re in.”

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college...138088028.html
Reply With Quote
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to ruechalgrin For This Totally Excellent Post:
Flyer 86 (03-12-2017), IAFlyer (03-13-2017), Lifelong Flyer Fan (03-12-2017)
  #35  
Old 03-12-2017, 10:47 PM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,101
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
ruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond repute
Dayton was 33.8% to beat Ohio State
Dayton was 28.8% to beat Syracuse
Dayton is 25% to beat Wichita State.

So you are saying we got a chance.
Reply With Quote
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to ruechalgrin For This Totally Excellent Post:
AlumUD (03-13-2017), Glen Clark (03-13-2017)
  #36  
Old 03-12-2017, 11:56 PM
FlyerGuyer FlyerGuyer is offline
Brigadier General
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,833
Thanks: 786
Thanked 1,262 Times in 666 Posts
FlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond reputeFlyerGuyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
How so? Our resume is much better than theirs. We have 6 wins over NCAA tournament teams, they have none.

Correction: Wichita State has one win over an NCAA tournament team: South Dakota State (18-16, RPI 155).
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 03-13-2017, 08:10 AM
Radar Radar is offline
Major General
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 3,817
Thanks: 2,633
Thanked 2,700 Times in 1,283 Posts
Radar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dayton was 33.8% to beat Ohio State
Dayton was 28.8% to beat Syracuse
Dayton is 25% to beat Wichita State.

So you are saying we got a chance.
Absolutely we do...and I'm confident we'll win.

Sick of Jay Bilas, who said a Dayton victory would be an upset. That's a stretch. Then again, he's in Boeheim's britches talking about the Syracuse snub too. Go back to your P5 bubble, Jay.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Radar For This Totally Excellent Post:
rollo (03-13-2017)
  #38  
Old 03-13-2017, 08:35 AM
priceg75's Avatar
priceg75 priceg75 is offline
Major General
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Miami Twp.
Posts: 3,342
Thanks: 268
Thanked 2,234 Times in 1,038 Posts
priceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond reputepriceg75 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Correction: Wichita State has one win over an NCAA tournament team: South Dakota State (18-16, RPI 155).
Thanks for that. They beat a 16 seed. I didn't catch that either.
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 03-13-2017, 08:37 AM
CE80 CE80 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
CE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Radar View Post
Absolutely we do...and I'm confident we'll win.

Sick of Jay Bilas, who said a Dayton victory would be an upset. That's a stretch. Then again, he's in Boeheim's britches talking about the Syracuse snub too. Go back to your P5 bubble, Jay.
I think he was saying we got screwed. Vegas has us as a 6.5 pt underdog so I would say he is correct in that us winning would be an upset.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
ruechalgrin (03-13-2017)
  #40  
Old 03-13-2017, 08:56 AM
ud2's Avatar
ud2 ud2 is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 22,431
Thanks: 6,787
Thanked 6,126 Times in 4,171 Posts
ud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond repute
FWIW, the 3 other 10 seeds were Marquette, VCU, and Oklahoma State.
Reply With Quote
  #41  
Old 03-13-2017, 10:19 AM
Radar Radar is offline
Major General
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 3,817
Thanks: 2,633
Thanked 2,700 Times in 1,283 Posts
Radar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond reputeRadar has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I think he was saying we got screwed. Vegas has us as a 6.5 pt underdog so I would say he is correct in that us winning would be an upset.
No, his comments were strictly about Wich St. Said they should be a 5 seed. He then threw UD a bone and name-dropped Schoochie and Charles Cooke to appease the Flyer Faithful.

He also says the same thing about every conf tourney champion: "they really playing well...so he picks them"...hell yeah they're playing well! In most cases they won 3/4 games in 3/4 days! He has Rhody winning 3 games. Personally I think Rhody will be lucky to win 1 game.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to Radar For This Totally Excellent Post:
ruechalgrin (03-13-2017)
  #42  
Old 03-13-2017, 10:37 AM
CE80 CE80 is offline
General of the Air Force
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
CE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond reputeCE80 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by Radar View Post
No, his comments were strictly about Wich St. Said they should be a 5 seed. He then threw UD a bone and name-dropped Schoochie and Charles Cooke to appease the Flyer Faithful.

He also says the same thing about every conf tourney champion: "they really playing well...so he picks them"...hell yeah they're playing well! In most cases they won 3/4 games in 3/4 days! He has Rhody winning 3 games. Personally I think Rhody will be lucky to win 1 game.
Rhody looked good in Pittsburgh.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
ruechalgrin (03-13-2017)
  #43  
Old 03-13-2017, 10:42 AM
ud2's Avatar
ud2 ud2 is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 22,431
Thanks: 6,787
Thanked 6,126 Times in 4,171 Posts
ud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond reputeud2 has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
The difference among potential 8/9 seeds is dramatic. Wichita State is #8 overall in the country (according to kenpom) whereas Seton Hall is #53. Dayton #37 would be supposed to lose by about 8 versus Wichita State with a 15% chance to win; whereas Dayton probably would be supposed to win by about 2 with a 65% chance to win versus Seton Hall.

In Dayton's 2014 Elite 8 run, beat #19 Ohio State (under-seeded), #18 Syracuse (over-seeded), #34 Stanford (under-seeded), and lost to #3 FL (correctly seeded). Dayton did not beat a top 16 team on its way to the Elite 8!

In Dayton's 2015 Round of 32 run, beat #47 Boise State, beat #27 Providence, and lost to #11 Oklahoma. Dayton did not beat a top 25 team on it way to the Round of 32!

In Dayton's 2016 NCAA, lost to #27 Syracuse.

So the last 3 years 5-3 record the difference between playing top and average teams is dramatic. Dayton is 2-2 versus top 25 teams and 3-1 versus teams 26-50. Breaking-down the top 25 wins/losses, Dayton is 2-0 versus teams 16-25 (Ohio State and Syracuse 2014) and 0-2 versus top 15 teams (Oklahoma 2015 and FL 2014).

Draw and Match-ups matter so much in the NCAA.

Let's hope Dayton does not Wichita State, equivalent of playing a 2 seed in the first round!?!?!?!?

To get to the Sweet 16 this year, Dayton likely will have to beat a top 10 team (and hopefully not 2 in a row if matched-up with Wichita State).

*All numbers according to kenpom.
All this talk about Ken Pomeroy. Are his rankings really so much better than everybody else's rankings? I have no idea if his rankings are so much better than everybody else.
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 03-13-2017, 11:12 AM
CT Flyer CT Flyer is offline
Lieutenant General
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 4,033
Thanks: 5,564
Thanked 2,316 Times in 1,328 Posts
CT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
All this talk about Ken Pomeroy. Are his rankings really so much better than everybody else's rankings? I have no idea if his rankings are so much better than everybody else.
Since I'm not a big advanced metrics guy either I have a question. Does every team start at the same spot when the season begins in Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc. or is there a pre-season baseline based on past performance, recruiting, etc.?
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 03-13-2017, 11:17 AM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,101
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
ruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
Since I'm not a big advanced metrics guy either I have a question. Does every team start at the same spot when the season begins in Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc. or is there a pre-season baseline based on past performance, recruiting, etc.?
Preseason baseline influenced by players returning, etc. Now totally based upon results. Kenpom had Dayton at #37 preseason and ended up the year at #36.

BTW, all top 40 kenpom teams got in with the exception of Clemson #36.

All top 64 kenpom teams got in with the following 12 exceptions so 52/64:

#36 Clemson
#41 TCU
#42 Indiana
#46 Texas Tech
#47 Utah
#49 Houston
#50 Syracuse
#51 Illinois State
#54 Alabama
#57 Georgia
#58 Cal
#62 Tenn
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 03-13-2017, 11:20 AM
CT Flyer CT Flyer is offline
Lieutenant General
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 4,033
Thanks: 5,564
Thanked 2,316 Times in 1,328 Posts
CT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond reputeCT Flyer has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Preseason baseline influenced by players returning, etc. Now totally based upon results. Kenpom had Dayton at #37 preseason and ended up the year at #36.

BTW, all top 40 kenpom teams got in with the exception of Clemson #36.

All top 64 kenpom teams got in with the following 12 exceptions so 52/64:

#36 Clemson
#41 TCU
#42 Indiana
#46 Texas Tech
#47 Utah
#49 Houston
#50 Syracuse
#51 Illinois State
#54 Alabama
#57 Georgia
#58 Cal
#62 Tenn
So once the season starts those pre-season rankings are wiped out and everyone starts at the same exact spot?
Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 03-13-2017, 12:40 PM
ruechalgrin's Avatar
ruechalgrin ruechalgrin is offline
Committed to this Web Site and Your Enjoyment!
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: California
Posts: 3,101
Thanks: 4,298
Thanked 2,862 Times in 1,139 Posts
ruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond reputeruechalgrin has a reputation beyond repute
Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
So once the season starts those pre-season rankings are wiped out and everyone starts at the same exact spot?
Progresses through season where titled more and more to actual results and away from baseline and about January 1st of every year it is totally based on actual results (I could have the date slightly off). But at this point the rankings are 100% earned based upon results in the 2016-2017 season, so totally objective.
Reply With Quote
Mad Props to ruechalgrin For This Totally Excellent Post:
CT Flyer (03-13-2017)
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.1

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:24 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Advertisement System V2.6 By   Branden

     
 
Copyright 1996-2012 UDPride.com. All Rights Reserved.